Serhat Guvenc
Kadir Has University, International Relations, Faculty Member
- Dr. Serhat Güvenç is a Professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University, Istanbul where he teaches gradua... moreDr. Serhat Güvenç is a Professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University, Istanbul where he teaches graduate and undergraduate courses on Strategy, Turkish Foreign and Security Policy and Turkey-EU Relations. Recently his research focus has shifted onto Maritime Security in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. He, therefore, currently supervises masters’ thesis and doctoral dissertations mostly on maritime security and related topics. His areas of expertise are Turkish Foreign Policy, Turkish Defense, EU-Turkey Relations, Turkey-Greece Relations Naval and Maritime Security in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Previously, he served as the Associate Dean of College of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences and as the Chair of International Relations Department.edit
The end of the Cold War undermined the old context of Turkish-American relations. For most of the Cold War, in exchange of its strategically important military bases, Turkey was rewarded with U.S. aid. Hence, the old context was based... more
The end of the Cold War undermined the old context of Turkish-American relations. For most of the Cold War, in exchange of its strategically important military bases, Turkey was rewarded with U.S. aid. Hence, the old context was based primarily on Turkey’s “real estate” value in containing the Soviets. The Carter Doctrine of 1980 added a new Middle Eastern dimension to this context. After the Cold War, it hinged solely on this residual “real estate” value. This marked a shift from global to regional focus in the defining parameter of Turkish-American relations. The Gulf War in 1991 reaffirmed the regional context. Ankara tried to contemplate a “strategic partnership” with the U.S. to diversify the context of Turkish-American relations in response to the post-Cold War ambiguities. As such “strategic partnership” also featured a reassurance function for Turkey when its western links had been increasingly challenged, particularly, by Europe. However, Washington did not identify its post-Cold War relations with Turkey at strategic level until the mid-1990s. The growing convergence in Turkish and American positions in many regional problems gradually elevated Turkey’s status with Washington. Due to its commitment to the status quo, Turkey emerged as a country pivotal to regional peace and stability. Paradoxically, while U.S. policy of containing Iraq enhanced Turkey’s value as a strategic asset, the rift between Turkey and the U.S. had not been as pronounced anywhere as in Iraq. As a pro-status quo power, Turkey was adamantly opposed to any move that could jeopardize Iraq’s territorial integrity. When, under the neoconservative influence after September 11, the U.S. embarked on revisionism in Iraq, not so usual for hegemonic powers, the “strategic partnership” between a pro-status quo pivotal actor and a revisionist hegemon inevitably collapsed in 2003.
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Türk Deniz Havacılığının kuruluşunun 100. yıldönümünde, Cengiz Topel Deniz Hava Üs Komutanlığı'nda düzenlenen etkinlikte sunulmuş değerlendirme
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US-Turkey relations were built primarily on a security axis in the aftermath of WW II. After a relatively easygoing period in the 1950s, relations suffered from a deficit of trust by the mid-1960s. Radicalization of public opinion in the... more
US-Turkey relations were built primarily on a security axis in the aftermath of WW II. After a relatively easygoing period in the 1950s, relations suffered from a deficit of trust by the mid-1960s. Radicalization of public opinion in the 1960s and 1970s and the near unconditional support Washington has given to Turkey’s frequent military interventions kept a residual anti-Americanism alive. In the post–Cold War period, the Gulf War and the emergence of newly independent countries with ample energy resources in the post-Soviet space placed Turkey back on the geopolitical map. In the age of “democratization” and the Islamist-Jihadi challenge, Turkey’s characteristics as a secular and electoral democratic Muslim country and a NATO member seeking EU membership made it more valuable for the United States. At the same time, the two sides never adequately dealt with the reality that their interests diverged considerably after the Cold War. Turkey’s refusal to allow the deployment of US troops prior to the invasion of Iraq led to a political downgrading of the Turkish military by the Pentagon. After a brief period of close relations under President Obama who called for a “model partnership” between the two allies, as a fallout from the Syrian civil war and the increasing authoritarianism of the Turkish government, relations turned increasingly “transactional” and personalized. Under President Trump the crises that plagued the relations deepened as Ankara and Moscow built closer relations and as bilateral relations increasingly relied on personalistic ties between the two leaders.
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Geographic, economic, and political factors moderate the European Union’s (EU) pursuit of a military role in the Middle East. Geographically, the region is on the periphery of the EU. It is considered part of a larger Mediterranean space... more
Geographic, economic, and political factors moderate the European
Union’s (EU) pursuit of a military role in the Middle East.
Geographically, the region is on the periphery of the EU. It is considered
part of a larger Mediterranean space which the EU External
Relations Commissioner Christopher Patten, dubbed the Union’s “near
abroad” in 2001. The Middle East is also identified as “a key external
priority for the EU.”
Union’s (EU) pursuit of a military role in the Middle East.
Geographically, the region is on the periphery of the EU. It is considered
part of a larger Mediterranean space which the EU External
Relations Commissioner Christopher Patten, dubbed the Union’s “near
abroad” in 2001. The Middle East is also identified as “a key external
priority for the EU.”
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This article looks that the naval balance of power in the Black Sea after the end of the Cold War
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State of Turkish-Greek naval rivalry after the 1999 Earthquakes
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This feature article provides a brief account of the origins of Turkish submarine service, which is among the oldest in the world.
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Bu çalışmada Türk deniz havacılığının gelişimi ele alınmaktadır.
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Rusya'dan silah alan ilk NATO üyesi Türkiye'nin Jandarma Genel Komutanlığı'nda görev yapan Mi-17 Hip helikopterleri ele alan bir çalışma
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An exclusive report on the first Russian military aircraft to be purchased by a NATO member dealing with Mi-17 helicopters in service with Turkish Gendarmarie.
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Major conflicts leave lasting and transformative impacts on social and institutional memories of the belligerents. Although it is officially labeled as “the Cyprus Peace Operation,” Turkish military intervention in 1974 is a case of... more
Major conflicts leave lasting and transformative impacts on social and institutional memories of the belligerents. Although it is officially labeled as “the Cyprus Peace Operation,” Turkish military intervention in 1974 is a case of inter-state armed conflict. The historiography on the 1974 Turkish military intervention has failed to produce a master narrative, a dominant and singular narrative that leaves little, if any, room, for alternative accounts or representations. The existing account of the conflict draws largely on published memoirs of Turkish war veterans. It is possible to identify three publications and a political development that have shaped this narrative. First is a book by prominent Turkish journalist, Mehmet Ali Birand in 1975, the Thirty Hot Days. Second work was the publication by the Cumhuriyet daily of the memoirs of a divisional commander, Bedrettin Demirel on 15th anniversary of the war. These memoirs indeed marked the end of the long “silence” on the issue in Turkey. The Turkish Cypriots’ support for the UN plan for the unification of the island in 2004 under the Annan Plan served a harsh reminder to those who considered the Cyprus problem solved for Turkey. A new round of publications was aimed at re-educating the public on the war in 1974. Finally, a staff officer in 1974, Lieutenant General Muzaffer Sever, wrote a book packed with previously unavailable planning and operational details of the intervention in 2010. Official military history volumes generally provide the backbone for emergence of the master narrative of a major armed conflict. No such official work has been published in Turkey yet, either by choice or necessity. Moreover, the existing narrative has been modified and revised several times to align it with the changing domestic and international political contexts. Hence, such an underdeveloped narrative cannot be reproduced due to the need to keep in step with fast-evolving geopolitical conditions. Hence, after half of a century later, the master narrative of Turkey’s 1974 military intervention remains largely untold.
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Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ABD'nin yeni nesil savaş uçağı üretmek için yaptığı çalışmaların en önemli aşamalarından birisini Müşterek Taarruz Uçağı (MTU) ya da diğer adıyla F-35 Lightening II Projesi oluşturmaktadır. Beşinci nesil olarak da... more
Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ABD'nin yeni nesil savaş uçağı üretmek için yaptığı çalışmaların en önemli aşamalarından birisini Müşterek Taarruz Uçağı (MTU) ya da diğer adıyla F-35 Lightening II Projesi oluşturmaktadır. Beşinci nesil olarak da adlandırılan bu yeni savaş uçağı projesi, Amerikalıların "adil dövüşmeyiz" ("we don't fight fair") sloganında ifadesini bulan, yüksek teknolojiye dayalı hava gücü üstünlüğünü perçinlemek için gündeme getirilmiştir. Hazırlanan projede yeni ne-sil savaş uçağı başından itibaren hava, deniz ve deniz piyade kuvvetleri tarafından kullanılacak ortak bir platform olarak planlanmıştır. Bu kuvvetlerin halen envan-terinde bulunan tüm taarruz/darbe uçaklarının yerini alması planlanan F-35'ler, konvansiyonel kabiliyetlerin yanında nükleer darbe yeteneğine de sahip olacak şekilde tasarlanmıştır. Hala filo hizmetinde bulunan F-22 Raptor avcı uçağıyla başlayan beşinci nesil savaş uçaklarının temel ayırt edici özellikleri; sinsilik (ste-alth) yani düşük radar kesiti, ardyakıcı (afterburner) devreye sokulmadan ses üstü hızlara çıkabilmesi, yakıtı daha verimli kullanabilmesi ve ağ merkezli harekâta uygunluk olarak sıralanabilir.
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In November 2010, Ankara endorsed NATO's new strategic concept which, inter alia, called for development and deployment of a balistic missile defense system. This endorsement in a way removed the uncertainity surrounding Turkey's future... more
In November 2010, Ankara endorsed NATO's new strategic concept which, inter alia, called for development and deployment of a balistic missile defense system. This endorsement in a way removed the uncertainity surrounding Turkey's future within the Western security community. It can be taken as a sign that Turkey continues to value its 60-year NATO membership even though its foreign policy in the last decade has been marked by relentless pursuit of autonomy at regional and international levels. Having renewed its committ-ment to NATO, Ankara on the hand, risked its relations with Iran and Russia as both have their own reasons to resent its balistic missile defense system. Regardless, Ankara went even a step further and agreed to host an X-Band radar site in southeastern Turkey which offers a sufficient margin of early warning advantage over previously considered sites in Eastern Europe. This paper argues that NATO's decision to deploy missile shield indicates a major shift in the Alliance's deterrence posture from deterrence by punishment to deter-rence by denial. Turkey's decision to host a radar site, on the hand, means Ankara is aware of revival of its "real estate value" for NATO's security and likely to generate profound impact on regional balances in the Middle East in coming decades.
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Turkish Navy was shaped under the influence of a set of domestic and internal factors including internal power struggle, Turkish military culture, interservice relations and lack of funds, rivalry with Greece and international power... more
Turkish Navy was shaped under the influence of a set of domestic and internal factors including internal power struggle, Turkish military culture, interservice relations and lack of funds, rivalry with Greece and international power configuration and arms trade system of the interwar years in general. Building a navy in Turkey in the interwar years signified a process far more significant than just creating an instrument
of national defense.
of national defense.
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Bu çalışmanın amacı, 11 Eylül terör saldırılarının etkisiyle küresel, bölgesel ve ulusal boyutta yaşanan ve yaşanabilecek sistemik değişim ve dönüşümleri ele almaktır. 11 Eylül’ün uluslararası ilişkilerde bir evrilme sürecinin... more
Bu çalışmanın amacı, 11 Eylül terör saldırılarının etkisiyle
küresel, bölgesel ve ulusal boyutta yaşanan ve yaşanabilecek
sistemik değişim ve dönüşümleri ele almaktır.
11 Eylül’ün uluslararası ilişkilerde bir evrilme sürecinin
başlangıcını mı yoksa sonucunu mu temsil ettiği sorusuna
da yanıt aranacaktır. Yine bu süreçte "uygarlıklar çatışması"
riskinin ne derece belirleyici bir rol oynayabileceği
de değerlendirilecektir. Özellikle bu son risk, Türkiye’nin
uluslararası siyasetteki konumunu ve rolünü iyice
hassas hale getirmiştir. Çalışmanın son bölümünde ise
yeniden kurgulanan dünyada, Türkiye’nin konumu ve
küresel ve bölgesel oyuncular ile ilişkileri araştırılacaktır.
küresel, bölgesel ve ulusal boyutta yaşanan ve yaşanabilecek
sistemik değişim ve dönüşümleri ele almaktır.
11 Eylül’ün uluslararası ilişkilerde bir evrilme sürecinin
başlangıcını mı yoksa sonucunu mu temsil ettiği sorusuna
da yanıt aranacaktır. Yine bu süreçte "uygarlıklar çatışması"
riskinin ne derece belirleyici bir rol oynayabileceği
de değerlendirilecektir. Özellikle bu son risk, Türkiye’nin
uluslararası siyasetteki konumunu ve rolünü iyice
hassas hale getirmiştir. Çalışmanın son bölümünde ise
yeniden kurgulanan dünyada, Türkiye’nin konumu ve
küresel ve bölgesel oyuncular ile ilişkileri araştırılacaktır.
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With its automobile exports measured in millions of units annually, Turkey has become one of the top automobile producing nations in Europe. The current state of the Turkish motor vehicle industry stands in contrast to its modest origins,... more
With its automobile exports measured in millions of units annually, Turkey has become one of the top automobile producing nations in Europe. The current state of the Turkish motor vehicle industry stands in contrast to its modest origins, which can be traced back to the early years of the Cold War. In the 1950s, a private company ventured into the business of assembling Willy's Jeeps in Turkey. The early developmental trajectory of the Turkish automobile manufacturing resembled the experiences of many other countries that resorted to import substitution to reduce foreign currency dependency for automobile imports. However, it differed significantly from others in two ways. First, it was not undertaken in response to a coordinated government policy, but rather as a one-off private initiative. Second, it was justified in the context of the Cold War military and strategic requirements. In other words, it stands out among its contemporaries in terms of the prominence of military and defense considerations that shaped US and Turkish military views on a private venture during the Cold War. Although the Jeep assembly experience in Turkey ended in failure, its products had remained in service in the Turkish Army for nearly 50 years, surviving the Cold War and beyond. The experience also left its deep imprint on Turkey's pursuit of an indigenously designed and manufactured automobile.
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This article analyzes drivers for Turkey's contraversia involvelment in the F-35 program.
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For the last two decades, two fears have largely shaped Turkey’s view of NATO. These are fears of entrapment and abandonment. Both are symptoms of a type of security dilemma that is peculiar to military alliances and coalitions. Both... more
For the last two decades, two fears have largely shaped Turkey’s view of NATO. These are fears of entrapment and abandonment. Both are symptoms of a type of security dilemma that is peculiar to military alliances and coalitions. Both fears had their origins in the Cold War in the context of Turkey’s 60-year-old NATO membership. They also led to the pursuit of autonomy in Turkish foreign policy both as a response strategy and as a strategic choice in its own right. While the former version featured a heavy dose of reliance on military means or hard power, the latter version de-emphasized the military option in foreign policy and relied instead on soft power. A multitude of dynamics accounts for variations in the Turkish approach to NATO for the last two decades: Geography and regional considerations, the transatlantic dynamics, NATO’s restructuring and transformation and Turkey’s domestic dynamics. It may be suggested that NATO membership now looms large in the strategic calculations of the new Turkish elite in the aftermath of the Arab Awakening. This development might be the harbinger of the end of an era marked by fears and the pursuit of autonomy in Turkey’s approach to NATO.
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This paper aims to introduce the interwar dimension to the debate on the history of Turkey's association with European integration.
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This report traces the roots of Turkish decision-making in arms procurement and development to the early years of the republic and the relative freedom of the inter-war years (1919–38). It then describes how the bipolar international... more
This report traces the roots of Turkish decision-making in arms procurement and development to the early years of the republic and the relative freedom of the inter-war years (1919–38). It then describes how the bipolar international order that emerged after the Second World War led to alignment with the US. As the report shows, the 1960s, however, would expose the tensions between strategic alliances and national autonomy as the Cyprus Crisis revealed Turkiye’s overreliance on the US in defence procurement. The crisis, including a series of official and unofficial arms embargoes, would have a profound impact on Turkish decision-makers and drove awareness of the need for self-sufficiency in arms production. The paper will discuss how this spurred the foundations of today’s defence industry in Turkiye, which has gone from a complete reliance on US equipment up to the 1970s, to greater international cooperation in the 1980s and 1990s, before then seeking to leverage arms deals to win hearts and minds in Europe and elsewhere more recently. Throughout these periods, as the report shows, we see the interweaving of the two distinct, but related, strands of Turkiye’s foreign policy and defence industrialisation coming to the fore.
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Turkiye’s defence industry is at a crossroads, and decision-makers face a difficult choice regarding its future path. On one hand, Turkiye’s long-standing ambition to establish a self-sufficient defence industry has led to considerable... more
Turkiye’s defence industry is at a crossroads, and decision-makers face a difficult choice regarding its future path. On one hand, Turkiye’s long-standing ambition to establish a self-sufficient defence industry has led to considerable industrial growth and increased Ankara’s strategic autonomy by reducing the influence of foreign suppliers. On the other hand, continued goals of self-sufficiency will become increasingly challenging and costly, particularly as the scale and sophistication of modern weaponry evolve and new competitors enter the marketplace. Although this provides an impetus for increasing industrial cooperation, the development of Turkiye’s defence industry has historically been rooted in its response to Western arms embargoes and the country’s decision-makers are strongly aware of the vulnerability of defence cooperation to foreign influence.
The international system has provided opportunities and challenges for Turkish defence industrialisation. However, to understand this process and the factors that will shape future decisions, it is necessary to consider how domestic factors such as the attitudes of leaders, a desire for strategic autonomy and the maturation of Turkiye’s nascent industry have impacted its trajectory.
Political leaders such as Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the 1920s and 1930s, Adnan Menderes in the 1950s, Turgut Özal in the 1980s and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan since the 2000s have left their marks on Turkiye’s defence industry. In doing so, they have reflected and responded to the changing nature of the international system – ranging from acceptance of and reliance on American defence goods early on during the Cold War to a growing realisation that Turkiye needed its own defence industry in the 1960s. These ambitions were solidified after the 1974 Turkish military operation in Cyprus, when Turkish allies enforced declared and undeclared arms embargoes on Ankara. This catalysed a revamping of Turkiye’s defence-industry capabilities.
Alongside the reorganisation of the country’s domestic defence industry, the switch from import-substitution to export-driven industrialisation permitted large-scale private-sector involvement in the defence industry. Defence companies that were built from scratch in the 1980s by private-sector investors were encouraged to work with foreign partners to bring in skills, technologies and capital. This approach prompted the rise of joint ventures, which seemed to offer the best model to secure technology transfer. The Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (originally known as the Defence Industry Development and Support Administration Office and as the Defence Industry Agency since 2022) was also a major factor in the growth of the defence industry after the consolidation of much of the industry under the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetlerini Güçlendirme Vakfı) in 1987.
Turkish decision-makers have come to understand that absolute autonomy is practically unattainable. Although the indigenisation of weapon systems permits many freedoms, the process also introduces different forms of dependencies. Furthermore, the ‘top-down’ strategy employed by Turkiye in establishing its defence-industrial base, going from the platform level down to components and technologies, has also faced criticism, mainly due to poor prioritisation and a lack of a coherent procedural approach.
To offset costs, Turkish defence industrialisation has become highly dependent on arms exports as it continues to indigenise and produce military technologies. Despite its booming turnover and export figures, however, the sector faces long-term challenges, including the emergence of new market competitors and an increasing rate of ‘brain drain’, especially since the late 2010s.
It is against this backdrop that Turkiye’s decision-makers face a crossroads. Although Turkiye would prefer to work with its Western allies, it is also open to cooperation with non-Western countries. This is because dependence, of varying degrees, on foreign arms suppliers could still restrict Turkiye in pursuing its national interests, especially if the policies and priorities of Ankara and its principal suppliers fail to align.
The international system has provided opportunities and challenges for Turkish defence industrialisation. However, to understand this process and the factors that will shape future decisions, it is necessary to consider how domestic factors such as the attitudes of leaders, a desire for strategic autonomy and the maturation of Turkiye’s nascent industry have impacted its trajectory.
Political leaders such as Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the 1920s and 1930s, Adnan Menderes in the 1950s, Turgut Özal in the 1980s and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan since the 2000s have left their marks on Turkiye’s defence industry. In doing so, they have reflected and responded to the changing nature of the international system – ranging from acceptance of and reliance on American defence goods early on during the Cold War to a growing realisation that Turkiye needed its own defence industry in the 1960s. These ambitions were solidified after the 1974 Turkish military operation in Cyprus, when Turkish allies enforced declared and undeclared arms embargoes on Ankara. This catalysed a revamping of Turkiye’s defence-industry capabilities.
Alongside the reorganisation of the country’s domestic defence industry, the switch from import-substitution to export-driven industrialisation permitted large-scale private-sector involvement in the defence industry. Defence companies that were built from scratch in the 1980s by private-sector investors were encouraged to work with foreign partners to bring in skills, technologies and capital. This approach prompted the rise of joint ventures, which seemed to offer the best model to secure technology transfer. The Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (originally known as the Defence Industry Development and Support Administration Office and as the Defence Industry Agency since 2022) was also a major factor in the growth of the defence industry after the consolidation of much of the industry under the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetlerini Güçlendirme Vakfı) in 1987.
Turkish decision-makers have come to understand that absolute autonomy is practically unattainable. Although the indigenisation of weapon systems permits many freedoms, the process also introduces different forms of dependencies. Furthermore, the ‘top-down’ strategy employed by Turkiye in establishing its defence-industrial base, going from the platform level down to components and technologies, has also faced criticism, mainly due to poor prioritisation and a lack of a coherent procedural approach.
To offset costs, Turkish defence industrialisation has become highly dependent on arms exports as it continues to indigenise and produce military technologies. Despite its booming turnover and export figures, however, the sector faces long-term challenges, including the emergence of new market competitors and an increasing rate of ‘brain drain’, especially since the late 2010s.
It is against this backdrop that Turkiye’s decision-makers face a crossroads. Although Turkiye would prefer to work with its Western allies, it is also open to cooperation with non-Western countries. This is because dependence, of varying degrees, on foreign arms suppliers could still restrict Turkiye in pursuing its national interests, especially if the policies and priorities of Ankara and its principal suppliers fail to align.
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Turkiye’s defence industry has undergone dramatic changes over the last 50 years and the country has become a significant defence exporter. In this report, as part of a joint project with the IISS, researchers from the Center for Foreign... more
Turkiye’s defence industry has undergone dramatic changes over the last 50 years and the country has become a significant defence exporter. In this report, as part of a joint project with the IISS, researchers from the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research explore this process and the issues that lie ahead.
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US–Turkish relations were marked by the primacy of military actors during the Cold War. This is considered to be the consequence of the so-called special relationship between the US and Turkish militaries based on mutual trust. However,... more
US–Turkish relations were marked by the primacy of military actors during the Cold War. This is considered to be the consequence of the so-called special relationship between the US and Turkish militaries based on mutual trust. However, historical record suggests that the two militaries clashed over a number of institutional, strategic and cultural matters from the onset. The US military assistance did not result in Turkish military’s transformation along the US military system. Nevertheless, it precipitated a long overdue generational change within a decade. The US-trained young officers purged the Prussian/German–trained old guard from the ranks.
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US-Turkey relations were built primarily on a security axis in the aftermath of WW II. After a relatively easygoing period in the 1950s, relations suffered from a deficit of trust by the mid-1960s. Radicalization of public opinion in the... more
US-Turkey relations were built primarily on a security axis in the aftermath of WW II. After a relatively easygoing period in the 1950s, relations suffered from a deficit of trust by the mid-1960s. Radicalization of public opinion in the 1960s and 1970s and the near unconditional support Washington has given to Turkey’s frequent military interventions kept a residual anti-Americanism alive. In the post–Cold War period, the Gulf War and the emergence of newly independent countries with ample energy resources in the post-Soviet space placed Turkey back on the geopolitical map. In the age of “democratization” and the Islamist-Jihadi challenge, Turkey’s characteristics as a secular and electoral democratic Muslim country and a NATO member seeking EU membership made it more valuable for the United States. At the same time, the two sides never adequately dealt with the reality that their interests diverged considerably after the Cold War. Turkey’s refusal to allow the deployment of US troops prior to the invasion of Iraq led to a political downgrading of the Turkish military by the Pentagon. After a brief period of close relations under President Obama who called for a “model partnership” between the two allies, as a fallout from the Syrian civil war and the increasing authoritarianism of the Turkish government, relations turned increasingly “transactional” and personalized. Under President Trump the crises that plagued the relations deepened as Ankara and Moscow built closer relations and as bilateral relations increasingly relied on personalistic ties between the two leaders.
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Turkey requested big and influential military advisory missions against the Russian threat both from Germany in 1913 and America in 1947. Although these missions were charged with revitalising an antiquated armed force to fight a modern... more
Turkey requested big and influential military advisory missions against the Russian threat both from Germany in 1913 and America in 1947. Although these missions were charged with revitalising an antiquated armed force to fight a modern war as soon as possible, in reality Turkish leaders saw both missions as the first step towards a comprehensive military alliance against the Russians. The outbreak of the First World War in 1914 and the Korean War in 1950 provided chances to induce Germany and America to agree upon Turkish desires for long-term military alliance. The military missions had to transform themselves and assumed duties other than those originally contemplated. In both cases a snowballing process of growth started in a relatively short time. The inflow of thousands of military personnel, most of whom were independent of the mission command and pursued different objectives, resulted in fragmentation and sometimes anarchy. There were many similarities between the experiences of both missions. They both suffered from ignorance, insensitivity, and cultural prejudices due to their poor linguistic and cultural preparation.
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Bu oturumun basligi "Universite Disindan Uluslararasi Iliskilere Bakmak". Bu baglamda universiteden birisi olarak universite disindan uluslararasi iliskilere bakan dusunce kuruluslari uzerine konusma icin tercih edeilmis olmam... more
Bu oturumun basligi "Universite Disindan Uluslararasi Iliskilere Bakmak". Bu baglamda universiteden birisi olarak universite disindan uluslararasi iliskilere bakan dusunce kuruluslari uzerine konusma icin tercih edeilmis olmam en azindan bana ilginc geliyor.
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Turkey requested big and influential military advisory missions against the Russian threat both from Germany in 1913 and America in 1947. Although these missions were charged with revitalising an antiquated armed force to fight a modern... more
Turkey requested big and influential military advisory missions against the
Russian threat both from Germany in 1913 and America in 1947. Although
these missions were charged with revitalising an antiquated armed force to fight a modern war as soon as possible, in reality Turkish leaders saw both missions as the first step towards a comprehensive military alliance against the Russians. The outbreak of the First World War in 1914 and the Korean War in 1950 provided chances to induce Germany and America to agree upon Turkish desires for long-term military alliance. The military missions had to transform themselves and assumed duties other than those originally contemplated. In both cases a snowballing process of growth started in a relatively short time. The inflow of thousands of military personnel, most of whom were independent of the mission command and pursued different objectives, resulted in fragmentation and sometimes anarchy. There were many similarities between the experiences of both missions. They both suffered from ignorance, insensitivity, and cultural prejudices due to their poor linguistic and cultural preparation.
Russian threat both from Germany in 1913 and America in 1947. Although
these missions were charged with revitalising an antiquated armed force to fight a modern war as soon as possible, in reality Turkish leaders saw both missions as the first step towards a comprehensive military alliance against the Russians. The outbreak of the First World War in 1914 and the Korean War in 1950 provided chances to induce Germany and America to agree upon Turkish desires for long-term military alliance. The military missions had to transform themselves and assumed duties other than those originally contemplated. In both cases a snowballing process of growth started in a relatively short time. The inflow of thousands of military personnel, most of whom were independent of the mission command and pursued different objectives, resulted in fragmentation and sometimes anarchy. There were many similarities between the experiences of both missions. They both suffered from ignorance, insensitivity, and cultural prejudices due to their poor linguistic and cultural preparation.
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Turkey was caught off guard when Russia launched in February 2022 its full-scale invasion of Ukraine under the guise of a “special military operation”. Ankara considered a minor military action, perhaps limited to the Donbas, highly... more
Turkey was caught off guard when Russia launched in February 2022 its full-scale invasion of Ukraine under the guise of a “special military operation”. Ankara considered a minor military action, perhaps limited to the Donbas, highly likely and failed to gauge the real motives of a Kremlin military buildup that began in late 2021. Turkey and Ukraine signed agreements to deepen their strategic partnership and enhance security cooperation only days before the invasion.
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A fter decades of silence, the Turks have begun to rediscover and revisit their country's military involvement in the Korean War of the 1950s. The Turkish national team's participation in the 2002 World Cup Finals, jointly... more
A fter decades of silence, the Turks have begun to rediscover and revisit their country's military involvement in the Korean War of the 1950s. The Turkish national team's participation in the 2002 World Cup Finals, jointly hosted by South Korea and Japan, served as a reminder to the Turkish public at large that 1117 Abstract The recent revival of academic and popular interest in the Korean War in Turkey has played an important role in instigating the production of new books and documentaries. In Turkish accounts the Battle of Kunu-ri (November 1950) figures more prominently than any other event during the entire conflict. However, the Turkish Brigade's performance at this battle remains controversial. This paper assesses the impact of U.S. military assistance on Turkish military's transformation, compares and contrasts the official U.S. and Turkish accounts of the battle (known in U.S. sources as the Battle of Chongchon), and discusses why the official perspectives of the engagement diverge substantially.. Authorization to photocopy items for internal and personal use is granted by the copyright holder for libraries and other users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 121 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA (www.copyright.com), provided the appropriate fee is paid to the CCC.
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Major conflicts leave lasting and transformative impacts on social and institutional memories of the belligerents. Although it is officially labeled as “the Cyprus Peace Operation,” Turkish military intervention in 1974 is a case of... more
Major conflicts leave lasting and transformative impacts on social and institutional memories of the belligerents. Although it is officially labeled as “the Cyprus Peace Operation,” Turkish military intervention in 1974 is a case of inter-state armed conflict. The historiography on the 1974 Turkish military intervention has failed to produce a master narrative, a dominant and singular narrative that leaves little, if any, room, for alternative accounts or representations. The existing account of the conflict draws largely on published memoirs of Turkish war veterans. It is possible to identify three publications and a political development that have shaped this narrative. First is a book by prominent Turkish journalist, Mehmet Ali Birand in 1975, the Thirty Hot Days. Second work was the publication by the Cumhuriyet daily of the memoirs of a divisional commander, Bedrettin Demirel on 15th anniversary of the war. These memoirs indeed marked the end of the long “silence” on the issue in Turkey. The Turkish Cypriots’ support for the UN plan for the unification of the island in 2004 under the Annan Plan served a harsh reminder to those who considered the Cyprus problem solved for Turkey. A new round of publications was aimed at re-educating the public on the war in 1974. Finally, a staff officer in 1974, Lieutenant General Muzaffer Sever, wrote a book packed with previously unavailable planning and operational details of the intervention in 2010. Official military history volumes generally provide the backbone for emergence of the master narrative of a major armed conflict. No such official work has been published in Turkey yet, either by choice or necessity. Moreover, the existing narrative has been modified and revised several times to align it with the changing domestic and international political contexts. Hence, such an underdeveloped narrative cannot be reproduced due to the need to keep in step with fast-evolving geopolitical conditions. Hence, after half of a century later, the master narrative of Turkey’s 1974 military intervention remains largely untold.
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Bugüne damgasını vuran gerçekaşırı kavramının bir gerçeklik olarak hayatımızı etkilemesinin güven kriziyle, beklentilerin karşılanmamasıyla, insanların algılayamadıkları gelişmelere duydukları tepkiyle alakası var.
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US-Turkey relations were built primarily on a security axis in the aftermath of WW II. After a relatively easygoing period in the 1950s, relations suffered from a deficit of trust by the mid-1960s. Radicalization of public opinion in the... more
US-Turkey relations were built primarily on a security axis in the aftermath of WW II. After a relatively easygoing period in the 1950s, relations suffered from a deficit of trust by the mid-1960s. Radicalization of public opinion in the 1960s and 1970s and the near unconditional support Washington has given to Turkey’s frequent military interventions kept a residual anti-Americanism alive. In the post–Cold War period, the Gulf War and the emergence of newly independent countries with ample energy resources in the post-Soviet space placed Turkey back on the geopolitical map. In the age of “democratization” and the Islamist-Jihadi challenge, Turkey’s characteristics as a secular and electoral democratic Muslim country and a NATO member seeking EU membership made it more valuable for the United States. At the same time, the two sides never adequately dealt with the reality that their interests diverged considerably after the Cold War. Turkey’s refusal to allow the deployment of US tro...
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Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ABD'nin yeni nesil savaş uçağı üretmek için yaptığı çalışmaların en önemli aşamalarından birisini Müşterek Taarruz Uçağı (MTU) ya da diğer adıyla F-35 Lightening II Projesi oluşturmaktadır. Beşinci nesil... more
Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ABD'nin yeni nesil savaş uçağı üretmek için yaptığı çalışmaların en önemli aşamalarından birisini Müşterek Taarruz Uçağı (MTU) ya da diğer adıyla F-35 Lightening II Projesi oluşturmaktadır. Beşinci nesil olarak da adlandırılan bu yeni savaş uçağı projesi, Amerikalıların "adil dövüşmeyiz" ("we don't fight fair") sloganında ifadesini bulan, yüksek teknolojiye dayalı hava gücü üstünlüğünü perçinlemek için gündeme getirilmiştir. Hazırlanan projede yeni ne-sil savaş uçağı başından itibaren hava, deniz ve deniz piyade kuvvetleri tarafından kullanılacak ortak bir platform olarak planlanmıştır. Bu kuvvetlerin halen envan-terinde bulunan tüm taarruz/darbe uçaklarının yerini alması planlanan F-35'ler, konvansiyonel kabiliyetlerin yanında nükleer darbe yeteneğine de sahip olacak şekilde tasarlanmıştır. Hala filo hizmetinde bulunan F-22 Raptor avcı uçağıyla başlayan beşinci nesil savaş uçaklarının temel ayırt edici özellikleri; sinsilik (ste-alth) yani düşük radar kesiti, ardyakıcı (afterburner) devreye sokulmadan ses üstü hızlara çıkabilmesi, yakıtı daha verimli kullanabilmesi ve ağ merkezli harekâta uygunluk olarak sıralanabilir.
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Abstract With its automobile exports measured in millions of units annually, Turkey has become one of the top automobile producing nations in Europe. The current state of the Turkish motor vehicle industry stands in contrast to its modest... more
Abstract With its automobile exports measured in millions of units annually, Turkey has become one of the top automobile producing nations in Europe. The current state of the Turkish motor vehicle industry stands in contrast to its modest origins, which can be traced back to the early years of the Cold War. In the 1950s, a private company ventured into the business of assembling Willy's Jeeps in Turkey. The early developmental trajectory of the Turkish automobile manufacturing resembled the experiences of many other countries that resorted to import substitution to reduce foreign currency dependency for automobile imports. However, it differed significantly from others in two ways. First, it was not undertaken in response to a coordinated government policy, but rather as a one-off private initiative. Second, it was justified in the context of the Cold War military and strategic requirements. In other words, it stands out among its contemporaries in terms of the prominence of military and defense considerations that shaped US and Turkish military views on a private venture during the Cold War. Although the Jeep assembly experience in Turkey ended in failure, its products had remained in service in the Turkish Army for nearly 50 years, surviving the Cold War and beyond. The experience also left its deep imprint on Turkey's pursuit of an indigenously designed and manufactured automobile.
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For the last two decades, two fears have largely shaped Turkey’s view of NATO. These are fears of entrapment and abandonment. Both are symptoms of a type of security dilemma that is peculiar to military alliances and coalitions. Both... more
For the last two decades, two fears have largely shaped Turkey’s view of NATO. These are fears of entrapment and abandonment. Both are symptoms of a type of security dilemma that is peculiar to military alliances and coalitions. Both fears had their origins in the Cold War in the context of Turkey’s 60-year-old NATO membership. They also led to the pursuit of autonomy in Turkish foreign policy both as a response strategy and as a strategic choice in its own right. While the former version featured a heavy dose of reliance on military means or hard power, the latter version de-emphasized the military option in foreign policy and relied instead on soft power. A multitude of dynamics accounts for variations in the Turkish approach to NATO for the last two decades: Geography and regional considerations, the transatlantic dynamics, NATO’s restructuring and transformation and Turkey’s domestic dynamics. It may be suggested that NATO membership now looms large in the strategic calculations of the new Turkish elite in the aftermath of the Arab Awakening. This development might be the harbinger of the end of an era marked by fears and the pursuit of autonomy in Turkey’s approach to NATO.
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... The opposition party deputies, including Rauf Orbay himself, cast their votes against the creation of the Ministry of Marine without an independent staff.Ix Ali 1hsan [Eryavuz] was appointed the first Minister of Marine of the... more
... The opposition party deputies, including Rauf Orbay himself, cast their votes against the creation of the Ministry of Marine without an independent staff.Ix Ali 1hsan [Eryavuz] was appointed the first Minister of Marine of the republic. ...
Research Interests: Military History, Strategic Studies, Naval History, Political Science, Turkey, and 13 moreAskeri Tarih, Interwar, Disarmament, Arms Trade, Public Administration and Policy, Turkish Navy, Naval Diplomacy, Naval Policy, Seapower, Naval Limitations, Cumhuriyet Donanması, Deniz Harp Tarihi, and Turkish naval policy
Turkey has been involved in the international consortium that builds the F-35 J°int Strike Fighter (JSF) since 1999. The relationship between Turkey and the consortium may appear to be rocky, however, because of Turkey's many... more
Turkey has been involved in the international consortium that builds the F-35 J°int Strike Fighter (JSF) since 1999. The relationship between Turkey and the consortium may appear to be rocky, however, because of Turkey's many hesitations to commit to the JSF program. In this article we argue that these hesitations are strategic, designed to extract maximum benefits for Turkey's defence industry from the consortium manufacturing the fighter jets. For in addition to wanting to buy these fighter jets, Turkey seeks to maximize the amount of local work-share to secure access to the software of the aircraft, and to accumulate enough experience that will eventually lead to designing and manufacturing a "fully indigenous" combat aircraft. Currently, Turkey's arms and aviation exports total US$i billion, and locallymanufactured items account for more than 50 percent of Turkish defence procurement. Consequently, the professed aim of building an indigenous combat aircraft can be taken as a manifestation of the pursuit of a greater share of, and a greater say in, the global arms trade.This article unfolds in three sections. In the first section, we give a brief history of military aviation in Turkey, including Turkey's efforts to develop an indigenous aircraft industry; in order to understand Turkey's involvement in the F-35 program, it is crucial to understand Turkey's desire to build a fully indigenous combat aircraft. Second, we give a timeline of Turkey's inclusion in the F-35 program and discuss the motives and goals behind Turkey's involvement in the JSF. Finally, we address the ebbs and flows in the Turkish approach to the entire JSF program in parallel to the rapidly changing international context, the cost overruns, and the extent of work-share secured for Turkish industries.MILITARY AVIATION AND AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY IN TURKEYIn May 2011 the Turkish Air Force (TuAF) officially celebrated its centennial. In 1911 the ailing Ottoman Empire created an experimental aviation unit. In its infancy, the Ottoman (and then the Turkish) air force saw action in a number of major conflicts that came in quick succession from the Balkan Wars in 1912-1913, to the First World War, to the Turkish War of Liberation in I9I9'I922- Once modem Turkey was established in 1923, submarines and aircraft became the weapons of choice for the defence of the new Turkish state. Yet aircraft had one distinct advantage over submarines-popular appeal. Hence aircraft and aviators quickly turned into symbols of progress and power in Turkey. Between 1925 and 1935, ordinary Turkish people paid for about 250 military aircraft through subscriptions raised by a nationwide fundraising drive organized by the Turkish Aircraft Association (later, the Turkish Air League, or THK), creating a strong and resilient bond between the people and aircraft in Turkey.The Versailles limitations on German arms production provided Turkey with an opportunity to have an early start in aircraft production. Seeking a way around the restrictions, the German aircraft manufacturer Junkers set up an assembly line for its A-20 military and F-13 civilian aircraft in the Central Anatolian city of Kayseri in 1925. Although this first attempt ended in failure, the Kayseri Plant was used in assembling aircraft purchased from the United States, Germany, Poland, and Britain in the 1930s. Meanwhile, several individuals had started their own businesses to design and build aircraft in Turkey. Among them, the best known were Vecihi Hurkuc, a veteran fighter pilot noted for his boldness, and Nuri Demirag, an entrepreneur and aviation enthusiast. Such private ventures bore only modest results. Nevertheless, Hurkuc in particular left a lasting mark on Turkish aviation as the builder of the first ever Turkish aircraft.1In the interwar era, Turkey followed a policy of avoiding dependence of all sorts. The Turkish government took great strides in diversifying its arms suppliers. Britain, Germany, and the US supplied bombers and trainers, while the fighters were bought from Poland. …
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Page 1. 163 Serhat Güvenç The Limits and Possibilities of a Military Role for the EU in the Middle East Introduction Geographic, economic, and political factors moderate the European Union's (EU) pursuit of a military role in... more
Page 1. 163 Serhat Güvenç The Limits and Possibilities of a Military Role for the EU in the Middle East Introduction Geographic, economic, and political factors moderate the European Union's (EU) pursuit of a military role in the Middle East. ...
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For the past three years, tension and animosity have returned to being routine in everyday relations between Turkey and Greece. The agenda has been packed with more issues of disagreement and has rendered what traditionally has been the... more
For the past three years, tension and animosity have returned to being routine in everyday relations between Turkey and Greece. The agenda has been packed with more issues of disagreement and has rendered what traditionally has been the core of Turkish-Greek contention, e.g., the delimitation of the Aegean continental shelf, to an almost nostalgic past.
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US–Turkish relations were marked by the primacy of military actors during the Cold War. This is considered to be the consequence of the so-called special relationship between the US and Turkish mil...
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This paper deals with the Montreaux Convention on the Turkish Straits as part of the rules-based internarioanl order
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This paper is aimed at introducing the inter-war dimension to the debate on the history of Turkey's association with the idea of European integration. This association evolved in the context of two inter-war initiatives:... more
This paper is aimed at introducing the inter-war dimension to the debate on the history of Turkey's association with the idea of European integration. This association evolved in the context of two inter-war initiatives: Aristide Briand's European Union proposal within the ...
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Rusya Federasyonu’nun Ukrayna’yı işgali 24 Şubat 2022’de başladı. Daha şimdiden binlerce sivilin hayatını kaybetmesine, milyonlarca insanın yerinden edilmesine yol açan savaş, tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan büyük bir ekonomik şoka da... more
Rusya Federasyonu’nun Ukrayna’yı işgali 24 Şubat 2022’de başladı. Daha şimdiden binlerce sivilin hayatını kaybetmesine, milyonlarca insanın yerinden edilmesine yol açan savaş, tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan büyük bir ekonomik şoka da neden oldu. Savaş Batılı aktörlerin Rusya’ya yönelik olarak hızla yürürlüğe soktukları yaptırımların da eklenmesiyle neredeyse
küresel ölçekte ve bütün hızıyla devam ediyor. Dolayısıyla, savaş sadece sahada fiilen çatışan tarafları değil, yaptırıma uğrayan Rusya’yı, yaptırımları koyanları, tarafsız kalanları ve elbette Türkiye gibi Rusya ve Ukrayna ile ciddi iktisadi, siyasi ve askeri iş birliği içindeki ülkeleri de doğrudan etkiliyor. Halihazırda bu savaş dünyanın hem siyasi hem de ekonomik haritasını yeniden şekillendiriyor. Türkiye’nin bu yeni düzende nasıl bir rol alabileceği bu kritik dönemeçte takınacağı tutum ve yapacağı tercihlerle doğrudan ilişki içindedir.
küresel ölçekte ve bütün hızıyla devam ediyor. Dolayısıyla, savaş sadece sahada fiilen çatışan tarafları değil, yaptırıma uğrayan Rusya’yı, yaptırımları koyanları, tarafsız kalanları ve elbette Türkiye gibi Rusya ve Ukrayna ile ciddi iktisadi, siyasi ve askeri iş birliği içindeki ülkeleri de doğrudan etkiliyor. Halihazırda bu savaş dünyanın hem siyasi hem de ekonomik haritasını yeniden şekillendiriyor. Türkiye’nin bu yeni düzende nasıl bir rol alabileceği bu kritik dönemeçte takınacağı tutum ve yapacağı tercihlerle doğrudan ilişki içindedir.