- United Kingdom
- Tim Jackson is Director of CUSP, and Professor of Sustainable Development at the University of Surrey in the UK.+++De... moreTim Jackson is Director of CUSP, and Professor of Sustainable Development at the University of Surrey in the UK.+++Details and full list of publications: www.timjackson.org.uk/publicationsedit
This policy briefing highlights some alternatives to the conventional approach to measuring social progress. It presents a three-fold strategy for moving beyond GDP by: changing the way we measure success; building a consistent policy... more
This policy briefing highlights some alternatives to the conventional approach to measuring social progress. It presents a three-fold strategy for moving beyond GDP by: changing the way we measure success; building a consistent policy framework for a ‘wellbeing economy’; and addressing the ‘growth dependency’ of the economy.
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The UK is experiencing a period of low productivity growth. Although exacerbated by the financial crisis of 2008, the underlying trend is longer and more persistent. This report aims to expand conventional understandings of productivity... more
The UK is experiencing a period of low productivity growth. Although exacerbated by the financial crisis of 2008, the underlying trend is longer and more persistent. This report aims to expand conventional understandings of productivity by exploring the literatures which relate productivity to the availability, production and use of energy in the economy.
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This report reviews the relationships between the different aspects of wellbeing, productivity, and productivity growth. It is the culmination of a desk-based evidence review, survey, and a mapping workshop held with experts from... more
This report reviews the relationships between the different aspects of wellbeing, productivity, and productivity growth. It is the culmination of a desk-based evidence review, survey, and a mapping workshop held with experts from backgrounds including psychology, sociology, economics, and design. The focus is on wellbeing and labour productivity.
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This working paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) simulation model of a national economy, calibrated on the basis of Canadian data. LowGrow SFC describes the evolution of the Canadian economy in terms of six financial sectors... more
This working paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) simulation model of a national economy, calibrated on the basis of Canadian data. LowGrow SFC describes the evolution of the Canadian economy in terms of six financial sectors whose behaviour is based on ‘stylised facts’ in the Post-Keynesian tradition. Contrary to the accepted wisdom, the results indicate the feasibility of improved environmental and social outcomes, even as the growth rate declines to zero.
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Since its development in the 1930s, GDP has been the most widely used measure of the health and progress of an economy, being adopted as the principal policy objective of countless national and international bodies across the world. Its... more
Since its development in the 1930s, GDP has been the most widely used measure of the health and progress of an economy, being adopted as the principal policy objective of countless national and international bodies across the world. Its many shortcomings as a measure of progress are well documented, and the alternative indicators of progress developed in response to these shortcomings have been diverse and numerous. This paper synthesises the literature, discusses the benefits and disadvantages of the different types of indicator, and elaborates on five prominent case studies in detail. It further considers two of the key debates in the literature—the challenge of aggregation and the question of monetisation—through a lens of policy and practice. In this way, we lay a roadmap for interested parties to navigate the many alternative indicators of progress. This work highlights the importance of context and purpose in determining what makes a ‘good’ indicator. We, therefore, propose a key distinction between two common indicator types: 1) indicators which primarily act as narrative or ‘story-telling’ devices, and 2) indicators which primarily act as decision aids for policy. We reflect in detail on what makes a successful and influential indicator in each of these contexts.
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This paper summarises the dilemma associated with using mainstream, macroeconomic models to guide disruptive, transformative change such as those that might occur under ‘deep decarbonisation’: a rapid transition to a net-zero carbon... more
This paper summarises the dilemma associated with using mainstream, macroeconomic models to guide disruptive, transformative change such as those that might occur under ‘deep decarbonisation’: a rapid transition to a net-zero carbon economy. On the one hand, some form of macro-economic modelling framework is essential to enable policy-makers to exercise short- and long-term fiscal responsibility. On the other hand, incremental models based on historical behaviour are a poor guide to outcomes under circumstances of disruptive change. The paper briefly reviews the current UK government modelling framework and highlights its relative advantages and shortcomings. It then proposes a pragmatic approach to the challenge based on ‘living with’ the existing framework for now, whilst providing an early signal to establish a ‘new Treasury model’ based on commissioning an immediate in-depth review of the challenge. Such a review could usefully address a range of issues, including: the appropriate remit of a new Treasury model; the institutional architecture of (and responsibilities for) macroeconomic modelling across government; and a set of proposed responses to the challenges associated with modelling disruptive change. Finally, the paper points briefly to a deeper issue on which a transformational economics will depend: the limitations of GDP itself as a measure of economic welfare.
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This briefing paper addresses the question of when the UK should aim for zero (or net zero) carbon emissions. Starting from the global carbon budget which would allow the world an estimated 66% chance of limiting climate warming to 1.5o... more
This briefing paper addresses the question of when the UK should aim for zero (or net zero) carbon emissions. Starting from the global carbon budget which would allow the world an estimated 66% chance of limiting climate warming to 1.5o C, the paper derives a fair carbon budget for the UK of 2.5 GtCO2. The briefing then analyses a variety of emission pathways and target dates in terms of their adequacy for remaining within this budget. A key finding is that a target date for zero carbon is not sufficient to determine whether the UK remains within its carbon budget. Policy must specify both a target date and an emissions pathway. For a linear reduction pathway not to exceed the carbon budget the target year would have to be 2025. Nonlinear pathways, such as those with constant percentage reduction rates, have a higher chance of remaining within the available budget provided that the reduction starts early enough and the reduction rate is high enough. It is notable that reduction rates high enough both to lead to zero carbon (on a consumption basis) by 2050 and to remain within the carbon budget require absolute reductions of more than 95% of carbon emissions as early as 2030. On this basis, the paper argues in favour of setting a UK target for net zero carbon emissions by 2030 or earlier, with a maximum of 5% emissions addressed through negative emission technologies.
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This paper aims to contribute towards the development of a political economy of work fit for purpose in a world of social and environmental limits. In order to get beyond today’s dominant conceptions of work in a growth-based capitalism,... more
This paper aims to contribute towards the development of a political economy of work fit for purpose in a world of social and environmental limits. In order to get beyond today’s dominant conceptions of work in a growth-based capitalism, Simon Mair, Angela Druckman and Tim Jackson explore the role of work in historical utopias.
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Our systematic failure to address existential anxiety robs society of meaning and blinds us to the suffering of others; to persistent poverty; to the extinction of species; to the health of global ecosystems. With this think piece, Tim... more
Our systematic failure to address existential anxiety robs society of meaning and blinds us to the suffering of others; to persistent poverty; to the extinction of species; to the health of global ecosystems. With this think piece, Tim Jackson adds to an eclectic set of essays, published in honour of Wolfgang Sachs.
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Critics have long questioned the feasibility (and desirability) of exponential growth on a finite planet. More recently, mainstream economists have begun to suggest some ‘secular’ limits to growth. Sluggish recovery in the wake of the... more
Critics have long questioned the feasibility (and desirability) of exponential growth on a finite planet. More recently, mainstream economists have begun to suggest some ‘secular’ limits to growth. Sluggish recovery in the wake of the financial crisis has revived discussion of a ‘secular stagnation’ in advanced economies, in particular. Declining growth rates have in their turn been identified as instrumental in increased inequality and the rise of political populism. This paper explores these emerging arguments paying a particular attention to the dynamics of secular stagnation. It explores the underlying phenomenon of declining labour productivity growth and unpacks the close relationships between productivity growth, the wage rate and social inequality. It also points to the historical congruence (and potential causal links) between declining productivity growth and resource bottlenecks. Contrary to some mainstream views, this paper finds no inevitability in the rising inequality that has haunted advanced economies in recent decades, suggesting instead that it lies in the pursuit of growth at all costs, even in the face of challenging fundamentals. This strategy has hindered technological innovation, reinforced inequality and exacerbated financial instability. At the very least, this paper argues, it is now time for policy to consider seriously the possibility that low growth rates might be ‘the new normal’ and to address carefully the ‘post-growth challenge’ this poses.
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This first in the series of briefing papers on building An Economy That Works explores the underlying phenomenon of ‘secular stagnation’ – a long-term decline in the rate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The paper examines... more
This first in the series of briefing papers on building An Economy That Works explores the underlying phenomenon of ‘secular stagnation’ – a long-term decline in the rate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The paper examines the evidence, explores the causes and discusses the implications of what some now call the ‘new normal’.
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The second in the series of briefing papers on building An Economy That Works explores inequality in the UK. It examines the evidence for rising inequality over the last fifty years, estimates the economic welfare lost to society from an... more
The second in the series of briefing papers on building An Economy That Works explores inequality in the UK. It examines the evidence for rising inequality over the last fifty years, estimates the economic welfare lost to society from an unequal distribution of incomes and addresses the critical question of managing inequality in the context of declining growth rates.
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In a previous paper we developed a simple stock-flow consistent (SFC) model of Savings, Inequality and Growth in a Macroeconomic account (SIGMA) to test Piketty’s hypothesis that declining growth rates lead to rising inequality (Jackson... more
In a previous paper we developed a simple stock-flow consistent (SFC) model of Savings, Inequality and Growth in a Macroeconomic account (SIGMA) to test Piketty’s hypothesis that declining growth rates lead to rising inequality (Jackson and Victor 2016). In this paper, we extend that analysis to show that inequality in a ‘post-growth’ economy depends on three related structural features of the economy: the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital; the dynamics of the capital-to-output ratio, and the behaviour of the savings rate. We find that under certain conditions Piketty’s hypothesis is upheld. But we also identify conditions under which inequality is reduced significantly, even as the growth rate declines. We then test three different redistributive measures – a graduated income tax, a tax on capital and a universal basic income – in two distinct structural scenarios for an economy with a declining growth rate. We find that none of these measures is sufficient to reduce inequality when institutions aggressively favour capital over labour. Taken in combination, however, under conditions more favourable to wage labour, these same measures have the potential to eliminate inequality almost entirely, even as the growth rate declines. We discuss the implication of these findings for the ‘future of work’.
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Consumer capitalism is unsustainable in environmental, social and even in financial terms. This paper explores the ramifications of the combined crises now faced by the prevailing growth-based model of economics. It traces briefly the... more
Consumer capitalism is unsustainable in environmental, social and even in financial terms. This paper explores the ramifications of the combined crises now faced by the prevailing growth-based model of economics. It traces briefly the evolution of western notions of progress and in particular it critiques the very narrow view of human nature on which these notions were built. A wider and more realistic view of human nature allows us to recover more robust meanings of prosperity and to establish the foundations for a different kind of economy. The paper explores these foundations. It pays a particular attention to the nature of enterprise, the quality of work, the structure of investment and the role of money. It develops the conceptual basis for social innovation in each of these areas, and provides empirical examples of such innovations. The aim is to demonstrate that the transition from an unsustainable consumerism to a sustainable prosperity is a precise, meaningful, definable and pragmatic task.
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Chapter 1 Introduction A New Yorker cartoon depicts a pair of Puritans in stiff collars, doublets, and cloaks leaning over the rail of the Arbella as it made landfall in the New World. One says, "My immediate goal is to worship God... more
Chapter 1 Introduction A New Yorker cartoon depicts a pair of Puritans in stiff collars, doublets, and cloaks leaning over the rail of the Arbella as it made landfall in the New World. One says, "My immediate goal is to worship God and celebrate His Creation, but ...
Research Interests: Earth Sciences, Economics, Philosophy, Political Science, Energy Policy, and 9 moreEconomic Theory, Philosophy Of Economics, Multidisciplinary, Biological Sciences, Philosophy and Religious Studies, Economic Issues, Public Administration and Policy, The Philosophical Quarterly, and Politics of the Life-Sciences
Concern over the environmental and social implications of modern consumption patterns has emerged as a defining feature of debates about sustainable development. During the last decade, these concerns have crystallised around the concept... more
Concern over the environmental and social implications of modern consumption patterns has emerged as a defining feature of debates about sustainable development. During the last decade, these concerns have crystallised around the concept of'sustainable ...
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This paper presents a historical examination of the influence of the Darwinian metaphor "the struggle for existence" on a variety of scientific theories which inform our current... more
This paper presents a historical examination of the influence of the Darwinian metaphor "the struggle for existence" on a variety of scientific theories which inform our current understanding of the world. It attempts in particular to relate this metaphor to the modern search for sustainable development. Starting from a remark made by Boltzmann to the effect that the struggle for
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Abstract During the course of 1991 a series of viewpoint papers will be published in Energy Policy on the subject of renewable energy. In this article, the guest editor for the series discusses the motivation for addressing this issue at... more
Abstract During the course of 1991 a series of viewpoint papers will be published in Energy Policy on the subject of renewable energy. In this article, the guest editor for the series discusses the motivation for addressing this issue at the present time, and lays down a ...
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Chapter 1 Introduction A New Yorker cartoon depicts a pair of Puritans in stiff collars, doublets, and cloaks leaning over the rail of the Arbella as it made landfall in the New World. One says, "My immediate goal is to worship God... more
Chapter 1 Introduction A New Yorker cartoon depicts a pair of Puritans in stiff collars, doublets, and cloaks leaning over the rail of the Arbella as it made landfall in the New World. One says, "My immediate goal is to worship God and celebrate His Creation, but ...
Research Interests: Earth Sciences, Economics, Philosophy, Political Science, Energy Policy, and 9 moreEconomic Theory, Philosophy Of Economics, Multidisciplinary, Biological Sciences, Philosophy and Religious Studies, Economic Issues, Public Administration and Policy, The Philosophical Quarterly, and Politics of the Life-Sciences
ABSTRACT By committing to green procurement, the UK government has taken a key initial step towards sustainable development. But can this be put into practice? This policy analysis explores the background to green procurement in English... more
ABSTRACT By committing to green procurement, the UK government has taken a key initial step towards sustainable development. But can this be put into practice? This policy analysis explores the background to green procurement in English local government through desk research ...
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While global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than three-fold since 1950, economic welfare, as estimated by the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), has actually decreased since 1978. We synthesized estimates of GPI over the... more
While global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than three-fold since 1950, economic welfare, as estimated by the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), has actually decreased since 1978. We synthesized estimates of GPI over the 1950–2003 time period for 17 countries for which GPI has been estimated. These 17 countries contain 53% of the global population and 59% of the global GDP. We compared GPI with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), Ecological Footprint, Biocapacity, Gini coefficient, and Life Satisfaction scores. Results show a significant variation among these countries, but some major trends. We also estimated a global GPI/capita over the 1950–2003 period. Global GPI/capita peaked in 1978, about the same time that global Ecological Footprint exceeded global Biocapacity. Life Satisfaction in almost all countries has also not improved significantly since 1975. Globally, GPI/capita does not increase beyond a GDP/capita of around $7000/capita. If we distributed income more equitably around the planet, the current world GDP ($67 trillion/yr) could support 9.6 billion people at $7000/capita. While GPI is not the perfect economic welfare indicator, it is a far better approximation than GDP. Development policies need to shift to better account for real welfare and not merely GDP growth.
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Concern over the environmental and social implications of modern consumption patterns has emerged as a defining feature of debates about sustainable development. During the last decade, these concerns have crystallised around the concept... more
Concern over the environmental and social implications of modern consumption patterns has emerged as a defining feature of debates about sustainable development. During the last decade, these concerns have crystallised around the concept of'sustainable ...
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Summary Industrial ecology has mainly been concerned with improving the efficiency of production systems. But addressing consump- tion is also vital in reducing the impact of society on its environ-... more
Summary Industrial ecology has mainly been concerned with improving the efficiency of production systems. But addressing consump- tion is also vital in reducing the impact of society on its environ- ment.Theconceptofsustainableconsumptionisaresponseto this. But the debates about sustainable consumption can only really be understood in the context of much wider and deeper debates about consumption and about consumer behavior it- self.
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At present, it is unclear to what extent CERs are compatible with the QELRCs. As presently written, Article 12.10 of the Kyoto Protocol seems to imply that it is permissible for Annex I Parties to count banked emission reductions achieved... more
At present, it is unclear to what extent CERs are compatible with the QELRCs. As presently written, Article 12.10 of the Kyoto Protocol seems to imply that it is permissible for Annex I Parties to count banked emission reductions achieved through the CDM in the ‘interim period’ (2000 – 2007 inclusive), against annual emissions during the ‘commitment period’ (2008 –
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Addressing the generation of household, municipal and industrial waste associated with modern living is a key challenge for sustainable development. For the most part however, waste accounts and data sets do not readily reveal how much... more
Addressing the generation of household, municipal and industrial waste associated with modern living is a key challenge for sustainable development. For the most part however, waste accounts and data sets do not readily reveal how much waste is attributable to different aspects of modern living. In particular, most waste accounts are production based accounts which do not reveal which specific household activities are driving upstream waste production. In addition, many waste accounts omit the wastes incurred abroad as a result of the demand for imported goods. This paper sets out a framework to rectify these omissions and illustrates its application to the case of (upstream) paper and card wastes in the UK. Specifically, the study proposes an attribution framework based on environmental input output (EIO) analysis, in which production sector wastes are attributed to 18 high-level household functional use categories - such as food, housing, transport, education and so on - using a 1...
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Since the resistive element of losses varies as the square of the current flow, times of high power demand make a disproportionately large contribution to network losses. A smoother demand profile over time would reduce losses, even... more
Since the resistive element of losses varies as the square of the current flow, times of high power demand make a disproportionately large contribution to network losses. A smoother demand profile over time would reduce losses, even without changing total demand. A spreadsheet model has been constructed to give a first approximation of the potential scale of distribution loss reduction from load- shifting by otherwise unrestricted domestic customers. The model combines network power flow and losses data with the consumption profiles of the domestic unrestricted customer class. The overall effect on distribution losses and its value are estimated - and appear relatively small. REDUCING DISTRIBUTION LOSSES An electricity distribution system loses a proportion of the electrical energy passing through it before that energy can be delivered to customers. A simple definition of losses is as the difference between units of electrical energy entering and units exiting (distributed by) the n...