Ida Kubiszewski

In early 2020, Indonesia implemented the biodiesel 30 (B30) program as an initiative to reduce Indonesia’s dependency on fossil fuels and to protect Indonesia’s palm oil market. However, palm oil has received international criticism due to its association with harmful environmental externalities. This paper analysed whether an investment in palm oil-based biofuel (POBB) provides Indonesia with the ability to achieve its environmental and financial goals. In this research, we performed a meta-analysis on biofuel energy return on investment (EROI) by examining 44 biofuel projects using ten types of biofuel feedstocks from 13 countries between 1995 and 2016. Results showed an average EROI of 3.92 and 3.22 for POBB and other biomass-based biofuels (OBBB), respectively. This shows that if only energy inputs and outputs are considered, biofuels provide a positive energy return. However, biofuels, including those from palm oil, produce externalities especially during land preparation and land restoration. We also compared these EROI biofuel results with other renewable energy sources and further analysed the implications for renewable energies to meet society’s energy demands in the future. Results showed that biofuel gives the lowest EROI compared to other renewable energy sources. Its EROI of 3.92, while positive, has been categorised as “not feasible for development”. If Indonesia plans to continue with its biofuel program, some major improvements will be necessary.

Cyclones cause significant damage, particularly to coastal areas. In the 50 years between 1967 and 2016, 54 cyclones struck Australia with total damages of approximately AUD 3 billion. Wetlands diminish cyclone impacts by absorbing storm surges and slowing winds. We examine the effects of wetlands on cyclone damage by creating a Bayesian regression model for storm damage as a function of wind speed, economic development in the storm swath, and the area of wetlands in the coastal plain in the storm swath using data from all 54 storms. Our results show that wind speed has a strong positive effect on cyclone damage and that wetland area has a strong negative effect. We estimate a total of AUD 29.6 billion of damage was averted during the 54 storms because of the presence of wetlands with a median of AUD 236 million per storm. This equates to an average of AUD 4203 per year per hectare of wetland, consistent with previous studies. Our results suggest that preserving wetlands is a cost-effective way to minimize cyclone damage while providing numerous other valuable ecosystem services. We estimate that maintaining at least 1.5% of coastal area as wetlands maximizes the averted damage.

Increasingly, empirical evidence refutes many of the theoretical pillars of mainstream economics. These theories have persisted despite the fact that they support unsustainable and undesirable environmental, social, and economic outcomes. Continuing to embrace them puts at risk the possibility of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and overcoming other global challenges. We discuss a selection of paradoxes and delusions surrounding mainstream economic theories related to: (1) efficiency and resource use, (2) wealth and wellbeing, (3) economic growth, and (4) the distribution of wealth within and between rich and poor nations. We describe a wellbeing economy as an alternative for guiding policy development. In 2018, a network of Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo), (supported by, but distinct from, the larger Wellbeing Economy Alliance-WEAll) promoting new forms of governance that diverge from the ones on which the G7 and G20 are based, has been launched and is now a living project. Members of WEGo aim at advancing the three key principles of a wellbeing economy: Live within planetary ecological boundaries, ensure equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, and efficiently allocate resources (including environmental and social public goods), bringing wellbeing to the heart of policymaking, and in particular economic policymaking. This network has potential to fundamentally reshape current global leadership still anchored to old economic paradigms that give primacy to economic growth over environmental and social wealth and wellbeing.

What people consider important, and how these factors contribute to their self-reported life satisfaction (LS), varies significantly across regions. Here, we analyse for the first time how LS varies across space and what factors best explain LS at different locations. Geographically weighted regressions (GWR) were used to analyse the relationship between LS and seventeen objective variables across Australia. We find that contributors to LS vary considerably but individuals living in relative proximity to each other share similar perspectives. Taking into account the spatially explicit heterogeneity of a population allows for the assessment of federal policies at local or regional levels, increasing the likelihood that their impacts will be consistent with the original intent. It also enables the perspectives of the diversity of cultures within a nation to be better understood.

China has relied on seawalls for storm protection along its coasts for decades. In contrast, the storm protection functions of coastal wetlands are often ignored by decision makers in China. We examined 127 historical storms with consequent economic loss to China from 1989 to 2016 and estimated the value of coastal wetlands with controlling for seawalls for storm protection. A regression model with the natural log of damage per unit gross domestic product in the storm swath as the dependent variable and explanatory variables including the length of existing seawalls in the storm swath and the natural logs of wind speed, storm duration and wetland area in the storm swath was highly significant and explained 59.2% of the variation in relative damages. Results show that a gain of 1 km 2 of wetlands corresponds to an average CNY 83.90 million (median = CNY 11.87 million) decrease in storm damage from specific storms. Coastal wetlands are gifts of nature and self-maintaining so they have zero construction and maintenance costs. They also provide many other valuable ecosystem services that hard sea-walls do not.

Indicators that attempt to gauge wellbeing have been created and used at multiple spatial scales around the world. The most commonly used indicators are at the national level to enable international comparisons. When analyzing subjective life satisfaction (LS), an aspect of wellbeing, at multiple spatial scales in Australia, variables (drawn from environmental, social, and economic domains) that are significantly correlated to LS at smaller scales become less significant at larger sub-national scales. The reverse is seen for other variables, which become more significant at larger scales. Regression analysis over multiple scales on three groups (1) all individuals within the sample, (2) individuals with self-reported LS as dissatisfied (LS ≤ 5), and (3) individuals self-reporting LS as satisfied (LS > 5), show that variables critical for LS differ between subgroups of the sample as well as by spatial scale. Wellbeing measures need to be created at multiple scales appropriate to the purpose of the indicator. Concurrently, policies need to address the factors that are important to wellbeing at those respective scales, segments, and values of the population.

Coastal regions provide vital ecosystem services for the human well-being. Rapid economic growth and increasing population in coastal regions is exerting more pressure on coastal environments. Here we develop four plausible scenarios to the year 2050 that address above issues in the northern Adelaide coastline, South Australia. Four scenarios were named after their characteristics, Lacuna, Gold Coast SA, Down to Earth, and Green & Gold. Lacuna and Gold Coast SA. Economy declined significantly in Lacuna, whereas, there is highest annual GDP growth (3.5%) in Gold Coast SA, which was closely followed by Green & Gold scenario (3%), GDP under Down to Earth grows at moderate 1.5%. There is highest population growth in Gold Coast SA followed by Green & Gold, Down to Earth and Lacuna. Gold Coast SA scenario led to high inequality as estimated by the Gini co-efficient of 0.45 compared to the current value of 0.33. Ecosystem services declined rapidly under Green & Gold and Lacuna as compared to the other two scenarios. The combination of scenario planning and ecosystem services valuation provides the capacity to guide coastal planning by illustrating enhanced social, environmental and economic benefits.

Ecological infrastructure (EI) refers to ecosystems that deliver services to society, functioning as a nature-based equivalent of, or complement to, built infrastructure. EI is critical for socioeconomic development, supporting a suite of development imperatives at local, national and international scales. This paper presents the myriad of ways that EI supports sustainable development, using South Africa and the South African National Development Plan as a case study, linking to the Sustainable Development Goals on a global level. We show the need for EI across numerous development and sustainability issues, including food security, water provision, and poverty alleviation. A strategic and multi-sectoral approach to EI investment is essential for allocating scarce public and private resources for achieving economic and social-ecological priorities. Opportunities to unlock investment in EI, both internationally and on the national level, are identified. This includes leveraging private sector investment into landscape management and integrating the costs of managing EI into public sectors that benefit directly from ecosystem services, such as the water sector and infrastructure development. Additionally, investing in EI also aligns well with international development and climate change funds. Investment in EI from a range of innovative sources supports global and national development, while complementing other development investments.

South Africa is increasingly putting itself into an undesirable state of ecological deficit. Regulatory and other interventions are needed to stop and reverse ecosystem degradation. Biodiversity offsets are seen as one possible method of mitigating the current trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services loss in the country. However, for offsetting to succeed in practice, a number of barriers will have to be overcome. This paper discusses concerns raised by South African stakeholders as part of a policy development process implemented by the Department of Environmental Affairs and proposes how the identified barriers may be overcome in the South African setting.

It has been 20 years since two seminal publications about ecosystem services came out: an edited book by Gretchen Daily and an article in Nature by a group of ecologists and economists on the value of the world's ecosystem services. Both of these have been very highly cited and kicked off an explosion of research, policy, and applications of the idea, including the establishment of this journal. This article traces the history leading up to these publications and the subsequent debates, research, institutions, policies, on-the-ground actions, and controversies they triggered. It also explores what we have learned during this period about the key issues: from definitions to classification to valuation, from integrated modelling to public participation and communication, and the evolution of institutions and governance innovation. Finally, it provides recommendations for the future. In particular, it points to the weakness of the mainstream economic approaches to valuation, growth, and development. It concludes that the substantial contributions of ecosystem services to the sustainable wellbeing of humans and the rest of nature should be at the core of the fundamental change needed in economic theory and practice if we are to achieve a societal transformation to a sustainable and desirable future.

Societies, like individuals, can become addicted to patterns of detrimental and unsustainable behavior. We can learn from one of the most successful therapies at the individual scale, motivational interviewing (MI). MI is based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. One analogy to MI at the societal level is community engaged scenario planning, which can engage entire communities in building consensus about preferred alternative futures via public opinion surveys and forums. Effective therapies for societal addictions are possible, but require re-balancing effort away from only pointing out the dire consequences of current behavior and toward also building a truly shared vision of a positive future and ways to get there.

We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. We used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. We mapped projected land-use for 16 biomes at 1 km 2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $51 trillion/yr or increase by USD $30 trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, we report totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.

Societies, like individuals, can become addicted to patterns of detrimental and unsustainable behavior. We can learn from one of the most successful therapies at the individual scale, motivational interviewing (MI). MI is based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. One analogy to MI at the societal level is community engaged scenario planning, which can engage entire communities in building consensus about preferred alternative futures via public opinion surveys and forums. Effective therapies for societal addictions are possible, but require re-balancing effort away from only pointing out the dire consequences of current behavior and toward also building a truly shared vision of a positive future and ways to get there.

When it was conceived, Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP’) was a useful signpost on the path to a better world. Increased economic activity meant jobs, income, and basic amenities to reduce worldwide social conflict and prevent a third world war. But now, economic activity has created a world very different from the one faced by global leaders at their 1944 Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, meeting to design the post-war global economic order. We live in a world overflowing with people and man-made capital, where emphasis on growing GDP, consumption and economic activity is leading the world towards increasing instability, natural resource depletion and environmental degradation, while developing nations still need to lift people from poverty. As John Kenneth Galbraith once observed: ‘to furnish a barren room is one thing. To continue to crowd in furniture until the foundation buckles is quite another’. More than 150 years ago, John Stuart Mill noted that, once assured decent living standard...

T he UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a detailed dashboard of goals and targets agreed to by all 193 UN member countries. The 17 SDGs and associated 169 targets represent a global consensus, years in the making. They are an important step in the transition to a sustainable world because they open the door for much needed additional work. To achieve the SDGs, policy makers, scientists, and practitioners will have to clarify how the goals and targets interconnect , including trade-offs and synergies, and develop three additional elements: (1) an aggregation of metrics of human and ecosystem well-being, (2) dynamic models of the integrated system of humans and the natural world, and (3) innovative ways to build broad public consensus on the future we want – the details of a world in which the SDGs have been implemented. We need aggregate metrics of human and ecosystem well-being to replace growth in gross domestic product (GDP) as the primary development goal for nations (http://thesolutionsjournal.com/ node/237220). One could argue that aggregating targets for the individual SDGs is not necessary (or possible) and that the pursuit of the individual goals is sufficient to achieve sustainable development. This might be true if the goals were independent of each other and they all contributed to the overarching objective equally. In reality, however, there are multiple interconnections and clear trade-offs and synergies across and within the goals, especially in how the environmental, social, and economic goals and targets interact. For example, the recent single-minded focus on GDP growth has exacerbated inequality and environmental damage in many countries. If one takes these elements into account, as the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) does, then there arguably has been no net progress globally for decades (Kubiszewski et al. 2013; Ecol Econ 93: 57–68). Increasing income inequality, environmental damage, and other costs can cancel out positive gains from GDP growth. The new metrics should therefore incorporate insights from ecology and psychology to describe how natural, social, human, and built capital assets interact to contribute to sustainable well-being, based on the idea that the best system is one that achieves the overarching goal of a world that is simultaneously prosperous, equitably shared, and ecologically sustainable. There is compelling new research relating ecosystem services and natural and social capital to human well-being, which can be integrated with GPI to produce an expanded version that connects more directly with the SDGs. Nevertheless, this will not be enough on its own. GDP has been successful in part because it is linked to the overall System of National Accounts (SNA), which is based on a static, linear, input–output model of the market economy. Although this approach was the best available when the SNA and GDP were developed in the 1930s and 1940s, we now know more about how complex, dynamic systems involving interacting human and natural systems function. Accordingly, we need to replace the static, linear model with more dynamic, integrated, natural and human system models that incorporate the dynamics of stocks, flows, trade-offs, and synergies among the full range of variables that affect the SDGs and human and ecosystem well-being. Finally, we need to explore and develop innovative methods to build broad consensus around the characteristics of desirable futures – the kind of world that would result if all the SDGs were achieved. This can be accomplished through the integration of scenario-planning exercises, extended to include public opinion surveys, with the metrics and modelling mentioned above. Scenario planning has been used successfully in a range of contexts. However, it can be extended to survey the public about which alternative futures they prefer (Costanza et al. 2015; J Futures Studies 19: 49–76). We also require better methods to communicate the complex trade-offs that each future scenario entails, including videos, movies, virtual reality, and other methods to fully engage people in understanding alternative futures and building consensus on the future that we want. The SDGs represent a major potential turning point in the future of humanity. For the first time in recorded history we have a set of goals and targets agreed upon by all UN countries, which include the full range of factors that contribute to equitable and sustainable well-being. We must not squander this opportunity to change the trajectory of humanity toward a more sustainable future.

Societies, like individuals, can get trapped in patterns of behavior called social traps or " societal addictions " that provide short-term rewards but are detrimental and unsustainable in the long run. Examples include our societal addiction to inequitable over-consumption fueled by fossil energy and a " growth at all costs " economic model. This paper explores the potential to learn from successful therapies at the individual level. In particular, Motiva-tional Interviewing (MI) is one of the most effective therapies. It is based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. We suggest that one analogy to MI at the societal level is a modified version of scenario planning (SP) that has been extended to engage the entire community (CSP) in thinking about goals and alternative futures via public opinion surveys and forums. Both MI and CSP are about exploring alternative futures in positive, non-confrontational ways and building commitment or consensus about preferred futures. We conclude that effective therapies for societal addictions may be possible, but, as we learn from MI, they will require a rebalancing of effort away from only pointing out the dire consequences of current behavior (without denying those consequences) and toward building a shared vision of a positive future and the means to get there.

This paper examines the evaluation of social externalities in regional communities affected by four major coal seam gas (CSG) projects in the Surat Basin region of Southeast Queensland, Australia. Using a mixed-methods approach , cross-sectional survey (n = 428), and structural equation modelling (SEM) the results of this study reveal community perceptions of rising economic inequality, collective sense of uncertainty about the future, and negative impacts on the standard of living in the affected regions. For example the majority of the respondents are concerned about: the rising cost of living in the area (83.4%), the long-term impacts on groundwater (77.4%), and how their community is being affected (77.3%). We found that perceptions of fairness and inequity weigh heavily, especially on farmers, and correlate to negative psychosocial effects. Our analysis shows that unresolved concerns of community residents about environmental and social issues and the loss of confidence in the local government, contribute to lower life-satisfaction, inhibit the community's ability to plan for the future, and lead to a weaker local economy.

We estimated the current value of ecosystem services for terrestrial ecosystems in 47 countries in the Asia and the Pacific region. Currently, these provide $US14 trillion/yr. in benefits, most of which are non-marketed and do not show up in GDP. We also estimated the changes in terrestrial ecosystem services value for scenarios to the year 2050, built around the four Great Transition Initiative archetypes: (1) Market Forces (MF); (2) Fortress World (FW); (3) Policy Reform (PR); and (4) Great Transition (GT). Results show that under the MF and FW scenarios the ecosystem services value in the region continues to decline from $14 trillion/yr in 2011 to $11 and $9 trillion/yr in 2050, respectively. In the PR scenario, the value is maintained around $14 Trillion/yr in 2050 and in the GT scenario it is significantly restored to $17 Trillion/yr. We also show more detailed maps and results for 8 selected countries in the region (Bhutan, China, India, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam) and compare our results with a previous national study of Bhutan. Our results indicate that adopting a set of policies like those assumed in the GT scenario would greatly enhance human wellbeing and sustainability in the region.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) offer a detailed dashboard of goals, targets and indicators. In this paper we investigate alternative methods to relate the SDGs to overall measures of sustainable wellbeing that can motivate and guide the process of global societal change. We describe what a Sustainable Wellbeing Index (SWI) that connects with and complements the SDG dashboard might look like. We first investigate several options for how to construct such an index and then discuss what is needed to build consensus around it. Finally, we propose linking the SDGs and our SWI with a comprehensive systems dynamics model that can track stocks and flows and make projections into the future under different policy scenarios.

We use two datasets to characterize impacts on ecosystem services. The first is a spatially explicit measure of the impact of human consumption or 'demand' on ecosystem services as measured by the human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP) derived from population distributions and aggregate national statistics. The second is an actual measure of loss of productivity or a proxy measure of 'supply' of ecosystem services derived from biophysical models, agricultural census data, and other empirical measures. This proxy measure of land degradation is the ratio of actual NPP to potential NPP. The HANPP dataset suggests that current 'demand' for NPP exceeds 'supply' at a corresponding ecosystem service value of $10.5 trillion per year. The land degradation measure suggests that we have lost $6.3 trillion per year of ecosystem service value to impaired ecosystem function. Agriculture amounts to 2.8% of global GDP. With global GDP standing at $63 trillion in 2010, all of agriculture represents $1.7 Trillion of the world's GDP. Our estimate of lost ecosystem services represent a significantly larger fraction (~ 10%) of global GDP. This is one reason the economics of land degradation is about a lot more than the market value of agricultural products alone.

Interest in both the science and practice of ecosystem services is on the rise. Many studies have confirmed the economic value of investing in the conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of ecosystem services. 1–5 This burgeoning world is now in need of institutions capable of managing the thousands of projects currently devoted to these issues. One such project can be found at the Baviaanskloof Mega Reserve in South Africa. The Mega Reserve is a World Heritage site and nature reserve and includes private and ...

As the unfolding nuclear disaster in Japan has shown, the costs of cleanup after a nuclear meltdown are borne in large part by national governments and taxpayers rather than the industry. Paying for cleanup is just one of many hidden costs of nuclear energy that make judging the value of nuclear power difficult. Many countries, including the United States, are rushing to build a new generation of nuclear power plants to reduce carbon emissions. However, the disaster in Japan should force us to take into account the full costs of ...