Si la pandemia por COVID-19 que estamos atravesando es atroz, las consecuencias de una falta de acción urgente frente al cambio climático son aún peores. La evidencia científica del nivel sin precedentes de la influencia humana en el... more
Si la pandemia por COVID-19 que estamos atravesando es atroz, las consecuencias de una falta de acción urgente frente al cambio climático son aún peores. La evidencia científica del nivel sin precedentes de la influencia humana en el clima es contundente: incremento sostenido de la temperatura media del planeta, ascenso del nivel del mar, retracción de glaciares y aumento en la ocurrencia de fenómenos extremos. Los impactos y riesgos que impone el cambio climático son evidentes en ámbitos como la salud de la población, recursos hídricos y biodiversidad, y en distintos sectores como producción de alimentos, generación de energía, infraestructura y transporte. Nuestra sobrevivencia depende de un desarrollo sostenible que tenga como eje central la protección del ambiente que hoy se encuentra amenazado tomando ventaja de las lecciones de la crisis actual para guiar la respuesta a la crisis climática.Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin
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During recent years, numerous studies have examined the Buenos Aires urban climate, but the relationship between large-scale weather conditions and the Buenos Aires urban heat island (UHI) intensity has not been studied. The goal of this... more
During recent years, numerous studies have examined the Buenos Aires urban climate, but the relationship between large-scale weather conditions and the Buenos Aires urban heat island (UHI) intensity has not been studied. The goal of this paper is to apply an objective synoptic climatological method to identify homogeneous air masses or weather types affecting Buenos Aires during winter, and to relate the results to the UHI intensity. A K-means clustering method was used to define six different air masses considering the 03:00, 09:00, 15:00 and 21:00 LT surface observations of dry bulb temperature, dew point, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure and wind direction and velocity at Ezeiza, the most rural meteorological station of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area (Fig. 1). Results show that the mean UHI intensity is at its maximum (2.8°C) a few hours before sunrise when conditions are dominated by cold air masses associated with cold-core anticyclones, weak winds and low cloud cover. Inverse heat islands are found during the afternoon for all air masses indicating that surface processes are not dominant at that time. The relatively infrequent and warmest air mass is the only one that presents a mean negative urban-rural temperature difference (-0.1°C) during the afternoon with the smallest diurnal cycle of the UHI intensity probably due to the prevailing high humidity and cloudy sky conditions. The paper provides an insight into the Buenos Aires urban-rural temperature difference under a variety of winter weather types and results could be useful to improve local daily temperature forecasts for the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires on the basis of the routine forecasts of weather types.
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The annual pattern of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the western border of the South Atlantic high between 25°S and 45°S has shifted southward since 1950. This trend was found, both in the NCEP reanalysis and in the South American... more
The annual pattern of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the western border of the South Atlantic high between 25°S and 45°S has shifted southward since 1950. This trend was found, both in the NCEP reanalysis and in the South American coastal synoptic data. This annual shift was related to a change in the annual SLP cycle. To describe this annual cycle in a synthetic form, principal component (PC) analysis in T mode was applied to the correlation matrix of seasonal SLP means. The domain of this analysis was between 25°S - 45°S and 65°W - 45°W including southeastern South America. In this region, mean SLP is characterized by the meridional gradient corresponding to the west flow in the south, the southwester border of the South Atlantic high in the east and the Chaco low in the northwest. In winter, the field corresponding to the west flow spans northward of its mean annual position, while in summer the South Atlantic high intensifies and moves southward. The first two PC patterns repre...
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Los esteros del Iberá son el segundo humedal más grande del mundo y en él habitan cientos de especies vegetales y animales. La disponibilidad hídrica de la región es consecuencia del balance entre precipitación, evapotranspiración y... more
Los esteros del Iberá son el segundo humedal más grande del mundo y en él habitan cientos de especies vegetales y animales. La disponibilidad hídrica de la región es consecuencia del balance entre precipitación, evapotranspiración y escurrimiento siendo esta área altamente sensible a modificaciones en dicho balance. En este trabajo se presenta la calibración del modelo hidrológico distribuido VIC a la región de los esteros del Iberá en base a observaciones de temperatura, precipitación y viento en superficie. Asimismo se analiza la habilidad del modelo climático regional RCA3-E para simular el clima presente de la región y la capacidad del modelo VIC para representar el ciclo hidrológico del humedal cuando es forzado con los resultados de las simulaciones de RCA3-E. Se encontró que existen errores en el modelo climático que deterioran notablemente las simulaciones hidrológicas y que estas últimas pueden ser mejoradas si se aplica previamente al modelo regional un esquema de correcci...
Global climate models (GCMs) constitute the most reliable tool to simulate the processes that will determine climate change at both global and regional scales. Nevertheless, GCMs predictions are subject to considerable uncertainties. In... more
Global climate models (GCMs) constitute the most reliable tool to simulate the processes that will determine climate change at both global and regional scales. Nevertheless, GCMs predictions are subject to considerable uncertainties. In this sense, the confidence to use GCMs should be based on an exhaustive evaluation of their performance, using observation datasets and model inter-comparison activities. At the present time, a set of GCMs simulations which would be included in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is recently available. It is required to evaluate, at both regional and global scales, the ability of these simulations to represent the present climate. There are few studies that have analyzed the ability of theses simulations to characterize the 20th century climate particularly in South American region. The aim of the present study is to compare the ability of two sets of GCMs derived from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 inter-comparison projects to rep...
Climate change is nowadays considered as one of the greatest problems humanity is facing due to the magnitude of its impact on economy, society and ecology. Southern South America, and in particular La Plata Basin, are areas where climate... more
Climate change is nowadays considered as one of the greatest problems humanity is facing due to the magnitude of its impact on economy, society and ecology. Southern South America, and in particular La Plata Basin, are areas where climate change is detected with major intensity. The principal objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of GCMs available from the WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Dataset Archive to represent the present climate (1960-1999) of southeastern South America with emphasis on precipitation and relevant atmospheric processes such as water vapor transport. Seasonal precipitation fields derived from GCMs were compared with the University of Delaware database available in a 0.5º x 0.5º grid. The evaluation of present climate model simulations was done using Climate of the 20th Century (20C3M) experiments. GCMs skill to represent the observed precipitation and water vapor transport fields was assessed from the linear spatial correlation coefficients between seasonal...
ABSTRACT In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in... more
ABSTRACT In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extension of crop lands into semiarid regions, but this increase also came with more frequent heavy rainfalls and consequent flooding of rural and urban areas. Since the early 1970s, the main rivers of the Plata Basin have increased their mean flows, but this was attributable not only to increased precipitation, but also to land use changes. In contrast, over the Andes Mountains, reduced rainfall and increased temperature has led to glaciers receding and reduced river flows. Climate projections for the first half of this century maintain observed trends and raise additional concerns that in most cases can be dealt with timely adaptation policies. However, by the end of this century, under an extreme emissions scenario, the projected warming reaches 3.5°C in the north of the country with respect to present-day conditions. There is insufficient knowledge to assume that this warming would not create severe damages to the people and the economy of Argentina. Because of the damages and casualties that heat waves and extreme precipitation events are already producing, the first and most urgent adaptation required is to reinforce early warning systems and contingency planning to cope with climatic extremes and their consequences on health.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.
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ABSTRACT The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtropical South America. It forces the development of a lee-side trough that covers most of western Argentina and a low-level jet that maximizes... more
ABSTRACT The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtropical South America. It forces the development of a lee-side trough that covers most of western Argentina and a low-level jet that maximizes over Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina and is tightly linked to precipitation variability over much of central and southeastern South America. Its steep slopes and the large zonal gradients in topography between the Equator and 40°S are misrepresented in climate simulations using Global Climate Models (GCM) with resolutions coarser than about 100 km, since they naturally have a poor representation of the Andes and related circulation features. This paper analyses the impact of varying artificially the altitude of the Andes Cordillera in a GCM as well as increasing the horizontal resolution to study how these variations determine moisture fluxes and precipitation over selected regions of South America. Results show that the height of the Andes is crucial in shaping moisture fluxes pathways onto subtropical South America all year long. In particular, the low-level jet is only simulated when the Andes heights are doubled. At the same time, the relationship between the Andes shape and the location of the Bolivian High in summer is also discussed. In terms of precipitation, the lowest bias in the simulations is achieved when the horizontal resolution is increased, while in particular near the Andes foothills the simulated annual rainfall is largely determined by the Mountains shape.
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... this case starting in the early 60s. Minetti and Vargas (1998) discussed the rain-fall trends in southern South America and found positive jumps in the 1970 decade. Liebmann et al. (2004) analyzed seasonal linear trends over ...
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ABSTRACT The Iberá Wetlands are one of the largest inland freshwater ecosystems in the world hosting several unique flora and fauna species. They are located in northeastern Argentina, a region in southeastern South America that... more
ABSTRACT The Iberá Wetlands are one of the largest inland freshwater ecosystems in the world hosting several unique flora and fauna species. They are located in northeastern Argentina, a region in southeastern South America that experienced large positive precipitation trends during the last decades. The aim of this paper is to calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model on the Iberá basin in order to quantify the hydrologic impacts of potential regional temperature and precipitation variations in the context of climate change as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. For this purpose, a version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, accounting for the presence of lakes and wetlands, was applied for the first time to the Iberá basin. Results show that the model can successfully simulate the main features of the system dynamics, including the daily mean streamflow of the Corriente River, the daily level of the Iberá Lake and the daily lake evaporation. Sensitivity tests of the Iberá basin hydrology were performed by varying regional temperature and rainfall conditions according to the outputs of a set of CMIP5 climate models for three different time slices during the 21st century. These tests showed a strong dependence of the basin hydrology on the precipitation changes rather on the temperature ones. Finally, the improvement in the VIC’s model performance when considering the lake and wetlands module was also proved.
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ABSTRACT Hydrological modeling with climate scenario data is used to develop projections of changes in frequency and duration of flood events in the margins of the lower sections of the Paraná and Uruguay rivers in La Plata Basin for the... more
ABSTRACT Hydrological modeling with climate scenario data is used to develop projections of changes in frequency and duration of flood events in the margins of the lower sections of the Paraná and Uruguay rivers in La Plata Basin for the 21st century. Discharges were simulated with the VIC hydrologic model considering the statistically bias corrected daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) and different emission scenarios. Results show that although it is expected that compared to current conditions temperature would rise and precipitation would have a slight increase in La Plata Basin during the present century, it could be expected more frequent and lasting fluvial flooding events in the lower Paraná and Uruguay basins. However, the range of results derived from different climate models though consistent in sign, indicate that the uncertainty is large.
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ABSTRACT The Iberá wetlands, located in La Plata Basin, is a fragile ecosystem habitat of several species of flora and fauna and it also constitutes one of the largest inland freshwater of the world. In this study the hydroclimatologic... more
ABSTRACT The Iberá wetlands, located in La Plata Basin, is a fragile ecosystem habitat of several species of flora and fauna and it also constitutes one of the largest inland freshwater of the world. In this study the hydroclimatologic response to projected climatic changes in the Iberá wetlands is assessed. Bias corrected temperature and precipitation data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed for the CLARIS-LPB project were used to drive the calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model for different time slices. Derived future scenarios consist on changes in temperature, precipitation and water level of the Iberá Lake for the periods 2021-2040 and 2071- 2090 with respect to present. All RCMs are consistent in predicting a warming for the near future (0-2ºC) and also to the end of the century (1.5-4.5ºC) in the study region, but differ in the sign and percentage of precipitation changes. VIC modeling results suggest that the Iberá Lake level could increase in the 21st century and that this increment would be higher in the summer months. Nevertheless, the projected 10 cm of water level increase could be not so relevant as it is of the same order of magnitude than the observed interdecadal variability of the system.
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ABSTRACT There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to... more
ABSTRACT There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of two sets of global climate models (GCMs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to represent the summer, winter, and... more
ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of two sets of global climate models (GCMs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to represent the summer, winter, and annual precipitation mean patterns in South America south of the equator and in three particular sub-regions, between years 1960 and 1999. Different metrics (relative bias, spatial correlation, RMSE, and relative errors) were calculated and compared between both projects to determine if there has been improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5 models in the representation of regional rainfall. Results from this analysis indicate that for the analysed seasons, precipitation simulated by both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models' ensembles exhibited some differences. In DJF, the relative bias over Amazonia, central South America, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay is reduced in CMIP5 compared with CMIP3. In JJA, the same occurs in some areas of Amazonia. Annual precipitation is also better represented by the CMIP5 than CMIP3 GCMs as they underestimate precipitation to a lesser extent, although in NE Brazil the overestimation values are much larger in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 analysis. In line with previous studies, the multi-model ensembles show the best representation of the observed patterns in most seasons and regions. Only in some cases, single GCMs [MIROC3.2(hires) – CMIP3– and MIROC4h – CMIP5] presented better results than the ensemble. The high horizontal resolution of these models suggests that this could be a relevant issue for a more adequate estimation of rainfall at least in the analysed regions.
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ABSTRACT This paper quantifies the relationship between sea ice cover (SIC) on the Southern Ocean and precipitation and river discharges over southeastern and eastern South America. The period of analysis covers from 1981 to 2008 and... more
ABSTRACT This paper quantifies the relationship between sea ice cover (SIC) on the Southern Ocean and precipitation and river discharges over southeastern and eastern South America. The period of analysis covers from 1981 to 2008 and includes monthly mean data of SIC over the Ross, Amundsen-Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas, atmospheric variables and discharges of selected river in eastern South America. To isolate the effect of known modes of climate variability on SIC, the signals of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annual Mode are removed from all time series through regression analysis. Composites of precipitation differences over South America reveal a pattern of enhanced rainfall activity over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) in summer (JFM) when SIC is above average particularly over the Weddell Sea area, while winter (ASO) SIC anomalies show negative and significant correlations with rainfall over much of South America. Moisture fluxes patterns in summer reveal increased moisture transport towards the SACZ region and decreased low-level jet activity (and precipitation) over northern Argentina. In particular a large dry bias over southeastern South America associated to positive SIC anomalies on the Weddell Sea in September is shown to impact the discharges of the Uruguay and Iguazú Rivers, with the largest effects found two months after the SIC anomaly (November). Although less robust, a relationship with the Paraná River is also found. These results suggest that increased SIC over the Weddell Sea during September can help to forecast drier conditions particularly on the Uruguay basin and somewhat wetter conditions in the SACZ region within the following season.
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For US, Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (? T ur) and rural temperatures (T r) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among... more
For US, Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (? T ur) and rural temperatures (T r) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the ...
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ABSTRACT Thermal humidity and airflow fields over the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires city (Argentina), for the period June 9–13, 1978, at 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00 AST have been analysed. This period was selected because of its little... more
ABSTRACT Thermal humidity and airflow fields over the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires city (Argentina), for the period June 9–13, 1978, at 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00 AST have been analysed. This period was selected because of its little cloudiness (<3/8) and light winds (velocity < 4 ms−1) at one of the meteorological stations. The observations were provided by eight stations located in the area.The effect of the urban heat island and the influence of the greater water temperature appear in the thermal fields at 08:00 and 20:00. At 14:00 the opposite effect can be appreciated. The airflow fields at 14:00 show a rotation of the wind from north to south, through the east, during the period. At 08:00 and 20:00 there is no wind in the area.The mixing-layer height was also studied. This height was estimated using the upper air observations obtained from radiosonde ascents from Ezeiza Airport station and the daily maximum temperatures of the meteorological stations selected.In general, the fields of mixing height are similar to the thermal fields at 14:00, with urban values lower than suburban ones.
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Español/ Português El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de... more
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El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica, es una iniciativa pionera financiada por el Programa ARAUCLIMA de la Cooperación Española y llevada a cabo por científicos de alto nivel, gestores y otros expertos. El objetivo de este informe ha sido brindar información exhaustiva desde todas las áreas del conocimiento, así como herramientas e indicadores que faciliten la toma efectiva de acciones para la adaptación al cambio climático de todos los países de la región.
En el presente Resumen para Responsables de Políticas se reporta en forma sucinta y asequible los alcances, conclusiones y recomendaciones recopiladas a lo largo de los 16 capítulos referente a las actuaciones sobre adaptación al cambio climático, de acuerdo a los principales sectores y sistemas de los países RIOCC. Se incluye además un análisis de las vulnerabilidades, así como de los riesgos e impactos más importantes del cambio climático y los casos de estudio que hemos considerado más ilustrativos y relevantes. Esperamos que este material sea de utilidad para la toma de decisiones y diseño de políticas que respondan a la prioridad y urgente necesidad de iniciar acciones que nuestros países requieren para una adaptación efectiva al cambio climático.
O Relatório RIOCCADAPT, Adaptação aos riscos das alterações climáticas nos países da Rede Ibero-Americana de Escritórios para as Alterações Climáticas (RIOCC), constituída pelos países de língua espanhola e portuguesa da América, ilhas das Caraíbas e Península Ibérica, é uma iniciativa pioneira financiada pelo Programa ARAUCLIMA de Cooperação Espanhola e levada a cabo por cientistas, gestores e outros peritos de alto nível. O objetivo deste relatório tem sido fornecer informações exaustivas de todas as áreas do conhecimento, bem como ferramentas e indicadores que facilitem uma ação eficaz de adaptação às mudanças climáticas em todos os países da região.
Este Resumo para Decisores Políticos relata de forma sucinta e acessível os âmbitos, conclusões e recomendações compiladas ao longo dos 16 capítulos relativos a ações de adaptação às alterações climáticas, de acordo com os principais sectores e sistemas dos países do RIOCC. Inclui também uma análise das vulnerabilidades, bem como os riscos e impactos mais importantes das alterações climáticas e os estudos de caso que consideramos mais ilustrativos e relevantes. Esperamos que este material seja útil para a tomada de decisões e conceção de políticas que respondam à necessidade prioritária e urgente de iniciar ações que os nossos países necessitam para uma adaptação eficaz às mudanças climáticas.
El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica, es una iniciativa pionera financiada por el Programa ARAUCLIMA de la Cooperación Española y llevada a cabo por científicos de alto nivel, gestores y otros expertos. El objetivo de este informe ha sido brindar información exhaustiva desde todas las áreas del conocimiento, así como herramientas e indicadores que faciliten la toma efectiva de acciones para la adaptación al cambio climático de todos los países de la región.
En el presente Resumen para Responsables de Políticas se reporta en forma sucinta y asequible los alcances, conclusiones y recomendaciones recopiladas a lo largo de los 16 capítulos referente a las actuaciones sobre adaptación al cambio climático, de acuerdo a los principales sectores y sistemas de los países RIOCC. Se incluye además un análisis de las vulnerabilidades, así como de los riesgos e impactos más importantes del cambio climático y los casos de estudio que hemos considerado más ilustrativos y relevantes. Esperamos que este material sea de utilidad para la toma de decisiones y diseño de políticas que respondan a la prioridad y urgente necesidad de iniciar acciones que nuestros países requieren para una adaptación efectiva al cambio climático.
O Relatório RIOCCADAPT, Adaptação aos riscos das alterações climáticas nos países da Rede Ibero-Americana de Escritórios para as Alterações Climáticas (RIOCC), constituída pelos países de língua espanhola e portuguesa da América, ilhas das Caraíbas e Península Ibérica, é uma iniciativa pioneira financiada pelo Programa ARAUCLIMA de Cooperação Espanhola e levada a cabo por cientistas, gestores e outros peritos de alto nível. O objetivo deste relatório tem sido fornecer informações exaustivas de todas as áreas do conhecimento, bem como ferramentas e indicadores que facilitem uma ação eficaz de adaptação às mudanças climáticas em todos os países da região.
Este Resumo para Decisores Políticos relata de forma sucinta e acessível os âmbitos, conclusões e recomendações compiladas ao longo dos 16 capítulos relativos a ações de adaptação às alterações climáticas, de acordo com os principais sectores e sistemas dos países do RIOCC. Inclui também uma análise das vulnerabilidades, bem como os riscos e impactos mais importantes das alterações climáticas e os estudos de caso que consideramos mais ilustrativos e relevantes. Esperamos que este material seja útil para a tomada de decisões e conceção de políticas que respondam à necessidade prioritária e urgente de iniciar ações que os nossos países necessitam para uma adaptação eficaz às mudanças climáticas.