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Nos últimos anos, as potências nucleares reconhecidas pelo Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (P5) têm investido substancialmente na modernização do seu arsenal nuclear. Mesmo tendo presente a necessidade de substituir algumas das... more
Nos últimos anos, as potências nucleares reconhecidas pelo Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (P5) têm investido substancialmente na modernização do seu arsenal nuclear. Mesmo tendo presente a necessidade de substituir algumas das plataformas nucleares, é percetível que o desenvolvimento e a operacionalização de novos sistemas militares – como o escudo antimíssil ou sistemas hipersónicos – criaram um efeito dominó estratégico sob outras potências nucleares, como a Rússia e a China. Este artigo almeja não só descrever alguns dos programas de modernização nuclear em fase de implementação, por parte dos P5, mas também aborda as motivações estratégicas por detrás dos mesmos.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
The strategic use of biological weapons has presented some difficulties. Biological weapons use has been always uncertain, invisible, and delayed due to factors such as the incubation period. With the intervention of biotechnology... more
The strategic use of biological weapons has presented some difficulties. Biological weapons use has been always uncertain, invisible, and delayed due to factors such as the incubation period. With the intervention of biotechnology techniques, the possible applications of biological weapons may increase and gain new strategic value. That may enhance the deterrence capability of these weapons against countries with nuclear weapons. To better understand these changes, we must look first at how biotechnology can eliminate some of the disadvantages of the strategic biological weapons use and therefore may enhance the use of biological weapons for deterrence.
Throughout military history, some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilities to military commanders. Some of those changes were so significant, as in the case of nuclear weapons, that they modified the strategic... more
Throughout military history, some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilities to military commanders. Some of those changes were so significant, as in the case of nuclear weapons, that they modified the strategic positions of the countries that possessed them within the international system. Although biological weapons cannot destroy civilian or military infrastructure, they can kill people in large numbers. Because the effects of the dissemination of biological weapons are invisible, delayed, and uncertain, genetically modified biological weapons can acquire a deterrence capability that would present serious challenges to United States policymakers.
Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these changes created benefits in several areas of economy, politics and science, they have also brought significant security challenges. As most... more
Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these changes created benefits in several areas of economy, politics and science, they have also brought significant security challenges. As most publications address the strategic issues emanated from the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), few are those who explain the proliferation phenomenon from an operational perspective. This chapter intends to demonstrate that the same mechanisms used every day by individuals, have also been used to support the phenomenon of proliferation of WMD over the past few years. Furthermore, the chapter will also look into the threats that proliferation poses to regional stability as well as the risks emanated from non-State actors attempting to acquire such weapons. Finally, we also address the existing international mechanisms created to prevent the use of globalization channels for the purposes of WMD.
Este ensaio tem como objectivo alertar para um novo terrorismo que se tornou visivel com os ataques de 11 de Setembro de 2001, e a juncao deste com armas de destruicao macica. A analise ira centrar-se nas possiveis consequencias consoante... more
Este ensaio tem como objectivo alertar para um novo terrorismo que se tornou visivel com os ataques de 11 de Setembro de 2001, e a juncao deste com armas de destruicao macica. A analise ira centrar-se nas possiveis consequencias consoante o tipo de arma utilizado, ja que estas tem utilidades e possibilidades distintas, assim como nas motivacoes do terrorismo religioso para o uso de armas de destruicao macica.
A arma nuclear, como a arma mais destrutiva existente, tem a capacidade para alterar profundamente a Estrategia e o relacionamento entre Estados. Depois de uma Guerra Fria, em que verificamos uma dinâmica nuclear bipolarizada, o seculo... more
A arma nuclear, como a arma mais destrutiva existente, tem a capacidade para alterar profundamente a Estrategia e o relacionamento entre Estados. Depois de uma Guerra Fria, em que verificamos uma dinâmica nuclear bipolarizada, o seculo XXI apresenta uma realidade mais complexa e multipolarizada. Este artigo pretende analisar as diferentes dinâmicas nucleares que as primeiras decadas do seculo XXI apresentam e os riscos que acarretam.
Este ensaio tem como objectivo de defender que a unipolaridade nao e um momento transitorio para a multipolaridade, ao contrario do que a teoria das Relacoes Internacionais preve. Procurase centrar a analise nos elementos praticos que... more
Este ensaio tem como objectivo de defender que a unipolaridade nao e um momento transitorio para a multipolaridade, ao contrario do que a teoria das Relacoes Internacionais preve. Procurase centrar a analise nos elementos praticos que constituem o poder dos Estados, e nao as previsoes teoricas que, no meu ver, nao se aplicam na actualidade.
Islamic extremist has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon it is important to understand the causes behind those violent acts by looking at the influences and modus operandi of several terrorist groups... more
Islamic extremist has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon it is important to understand the causes behind those violent acts by looking at the influences and modus operandi of several terrorist groups that have operated (or currently do) in Indonesia. Specifically, this article will analyze the roots of Jemaah Islamiyah, Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid, Laskar Jihad, Mujahidin Indonesia Timur as well as the recent ISIS attempt of establishing a foothold in Indonesia. Only by looking at a considerable group of terrorist movements, it is then possible to understand the historical, religious and cultural causes behind the latter as well as realistically assess if terrorism can be a strategic instability factor for the Indonesian government.
Undoubtedly, a significant number of governmental reports, academic articles and op-eds about the Covid-19 and its likely future impacts in the world societies and economies have already been published. Though useful for... more
Undoubtedly, a  significant number of  governmental reports, academic articles  and op-eds about the Covid-19 and its likely future impacts in the world societies and economies have already  been  published.  Though  useful  for  planning,  anyone  attempting  to  establish prospective post-pandemic scenarios should – above all – be aware that this effort is filled with uncertainty as the repercussions of any contagious diseases are always dynamic. Namely, its reliance on constant evolving factors, is causing persistent shifts in its impacts principally for those of economic and political nature.

With  this  thought  in  mind,  and  as  the  doubts  shrouding  a  possible  second  wave  of  this pandemic slowly  erode, it seems important to look at historical instances of uncontrollable transmission  of  disease  and  to  understand  how  deeply  it  can  politically  impact  human societies, albeit contextualizing the obvious differences brought by time and different social and technological backgrounds. Still, having these aspects in consideration, it should be noted the common denominator that the current pandemic has with other historical health emergencies: the absence of medical countermeasures that can truly eliminate the disease.
As the most destructive weapon in existence, nuclear weapons have the ability to deeply change the strategy and the dynamics between States. After the Cold War, when we had a bipolar nuclear dynamics, the twenty-first century presents a... more
As the most destructive weapon in existence, nuclear weapons have the ability to deeply change the strategy and the dynamics between States. After the Cold War, when we had a bipolar nuclear dynamics, the twenty-first century presents a more complex and multipolar reality. This article aims to analyze the different nuclear dynamics present in the first decades of the twenty-first century and the risks they entail.
When addressing nuclear issues in South Asia, most scholars focus solely on India and Pakistan. Although we should acquiesce that the problematic diplomatic ties between Islamabad and New Delhi includes a nuclear dimension, facts... more
When addressing nuclear issues in South Asia, most scholars focus solely on India and Pakistan. Although we should acquiesce that the problematic diplomatic ties between Islamabad and New Delhi includes a nuclear dimension, facts demonstrate that China has a paramount role in the regional nuclear dynamics. In order to understand these dynamics, the article analyses the historical background of the nuclear weapons  programs and the strategic imperatives which underlined their origins.
Subsequently it shows how they influence each other, constituting a trilateral nuclear dynamic with risks to the regional stability brought under an “action-reaction” cycle.
The threat of terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction remains a daunting concern. Governments have undertaken several initiatives at the national and international level to prevent such illicit use, yet challenges remain. Notable is... more
The threat of terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction remains a daunting concern. Governments have undertaken several initiatives at the national and international level to prevent such illicit use, yet challenges remain. Notable is the absence of a single collaborative international forum of experts dedicated solely to bioterrorism prevention. The establishment of a Bioterrorism Prevention Initiative could be a possible solution to address this gap. This article explores possibilities for such an initiative and the ways in which it could strengthen the existing bio-nonproliferation regime.
Last week, in a bid to end a months-long political crisis, Guinea-Bissau’s president, Jose Mario Vaz, swore in a new government after initial talks collapsed with Prime Minister Carlos Correia over the formation of a Cabinet. Correia is... more
Last week, in a bid to end a months-long political crisis, Guinea-Bissau’s president, Jose Mario Vaz, swore in a new government after initial talks collapsed with Prime Minister Carlos Correia over the formation of a Cabinet. Correia is the third prime minister to hold the post since August, as intraparty rivalries have left Guinea-Bissau without a functioning government for months, risking international aid to a country trying to recover from its latest military coup in 2012. But Guinea-Bissau is not in the clear yet, as the underlying institutional differences at the root of this standoff clearly haven’t been solved yet
In Beijing, dos Santos negotiated eight cooperation agreements, including a financial assistance deal. But the details of the loan have not been publicly disclosed. Dos Santos’ government is reportedly planning to borrow $25 billion to... more
In Beijing, dos Santos negotiated eight cooperation agreements, including a financial assistance deal. But the details of the loan have not been publicly disclosed. Dos Santos’ government is reportedly planning to borrow $25 billion to fill a budget gap brought on by the slump in global oil prices. According to estimates, China has already lent Angola some $20 billion since its civil war ended in 2002. Angola repays the debt mainly through oil—China is Angola’s biggest customer—or, as Reuters noted, funds that “go directly to Chinese construction firms that have built roads, hospitals, houses and railways across Angola.
Desde Novembro de 2013, quando o Irão iniciou acordos preliminares com os países constituintes do grupo negocial P5+1, foram progressivamente libertadas verbas arrestadas em instituições financeiras fruto de um conjunto de sanções... more
Desde Novembro de 2013, quando o Irão iniciou acordos preliminares com os países constituintes do grupo negocial P5+1, foram progressivamente libertadas verbas arrestadas em instituições financeiras fruto de um conjunto de sanções impostas
internacionalmente. No entanto, o maior impacto financeiro deste recente acordo nuclear virá da suspensão das sanções em conjunto com investimentos possíveis através da melhoria das relações entre o Irão e os países Ocidentais. É propósito deste
artigo demonstrar o posicionamento de alguns países e empresas multinacionais em setores estratégicos iranianos e o seu impacto ao nível da geopolítica regional. Atenção particular será dada ao impacto económico que este acordo tem tido ao
nível das aquisições militares na região.
Research Interests:
Over the last years, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) recognized nuclear powers (P5) have substantially invested in modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Even considering the need for replacement of some of the nuclear platforms,... more
Over the last years, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) recognized nuclear powers (P5) have substantially invested in modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Even considering the need for replacement of some of the nuclear platforms, analysis demonstrates that the development and deployment of new military systems – like the missile shield or hypersonic systems – has created a strategic domino effect on other nuclear powers, namely Russia and China. This article intends not only to describe some of the nuclear modernizations programs currently being implemented by the P5 but also the strategic
motivations behind the latter.
Ao longo de mais de uma década, o Irão tem sido referenciado como um potencial proliferador nuclear. Não obstante as suspeitas que possam recair sobre algum do trabalho desenvolvido na vertente nuclear pelas autoridades iranianas, a... more
Ao longo de mais de uma década, o Irão tem sido referenciado como um potencial proliferador nuclear. Não obstante as suspeitas que possam recair sobre algum do trabalho desenvolvido na vertente nuclear pelas autoridades iranianas, a constante extrapolação sobre as suas capacidades nucleares tem levado a uma incorreta presunção da ameaça. Tendo presente que se aproxima o fim do prazo para a conclusão
do acordo nuclear com o Irão, vê-se como relevante fazer uma leitura objetiva das reais capacidades nucleares e balísticas do Irão, de forma a evitar que avaliações feitas por opositores desta vitória diplomática alterem a perceção da opinião pública.
The drop in global oil prices raises questions about the sustainability of Angola’s military modernization, as a growing economic crisis has already forced the government to cut back on spending
Research Interests:
Islamic extremism has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon it is important to understand the causes behind those violent acts by looking at the influences and modus operandi of several terrorist groups... more
Islamic extremism has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one
addresses this phenomenon it is important to understand the causes behind
those violent acts by looking at the influences and modus operandi of
several terrorist groups that have operated (or currently do) in Indonesia.
Specifically, this article will analyze the roots of Jemaah Islamiyah, Jamaah
Ansharut Tauhid, Laskar Jihad, Mujahidin Indonesia Timur as well as
the recent ISIS attempt of establishing a foothold in Indonesia. Only by
looking at a considerable group of terrorist movements, it is then possible to
understand the historical, religious and cultural causes behind the latter as
well as realistically assess if terrorism can be a strategic instability factor for
the Indonesian government.
Research Interests:
As a number of analysts focus on the problems behind the 3D printing of conventional weapons and the hypothetical effects on domestic security, one must also envision issues brought by these printers to the weapons of mass destruction... more
As a number of analysts focus on the problems behind
the 3D printing of conventional weapons and the
hypothetical effects on domestic security, one must also
envision issues brought by these printers to the weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) nonproliferation mechanisms
and terrorism.
Research Interests:
Can the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference help prevent future crises from escalating?
Research Interests:
Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these changes created benefits in several areas of economy, politics and science, they have also brought significant security challenges. As most... more
Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these changes created benefits in several areas of economy, politics and science, they have also brought significant security challenges. As most publications address the strategic issues emanated from the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), few are those who explain the proliferation phenomenon from an operational perspective. This chapter intends to demonstrate that the same mechanisms used every day by individuals, have also been used to support the phenomenon of proliferation of WMD over the past few years. Furthermore, the chapter will also look into the threats that proliferation poses to regional stability as well as the risks emanated from non-State actors attempting to acquire such weapons. Finally, we also address the existing international mechanisms created to prevent the use of globalization channels for the purposes of WMD.
Research Interests:
A look at Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs during 2014, and the region’s response.
Over 10 million people will cast their votes in today’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique. The outcome could prove vital for a country seeking political stability to encourage more foreign investment and the social... more
Over 10 million people will cast their votes in today’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique. The outcome could prove vital for a country seeking political stability to encourage more foreign investment and the social and economic benefits it could bring. Although political conditions have improved recently, there have been episodes of violence throughout the campaign among supporters of the three leading parties: the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM).
Research Interests:
Available information demonstrates that the Islamic State is seeking materials necessary for the production of weapons of mass destruction. In order to better assess the threat presented by such a search, it must be analyzed in terms not... more
Available information demonstrates that the Islamic State is seeking materials necessary for the production of weapons of mass destruction. In order to better assess the threat presented by such a search, it must be analyzed in terms not only of whether such materials have been successfully acquired, but also in terms of intention, financial capability, available expertise, and historical record. Taking these factors together, NATO countries should address this threat quickly.
Research Interests:
Last month, Brazil and Angola signed a Technical Memorandum of Understanding for the Brazilian navy to support the development of Angola’s naval capabilities. Angola will purchase seven Brazilian Macae patrol ships, four of them built in... more
Last month, Brazil and Angola signed a Technical Memorandum of Understanding for the Brazilian navy to support the development of Angola’s naval capabilities. Angola will purchase seven Brazilian Macae patrol ships, four of them built in Brazil with Angolan personnel support, and three others in Angola. Brazil will also train Angolan military personnel and build a shipyard in Angola. The agreement is another sign of Brazil and Angola’s strategic partnership, following their 2010 Defense Cooperation Agreement and more recent pacts on naval and aeronautic cooperation. But it also fits into Angola’s broader strategy to secure its maritime borders to safeguard its oil and fishing resources.
Research Interests:
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Fighting piracy in the Gulf of Guinea requires a new strategy, according to the authors.
Research Interests:
Mission impossible? Only if one adopts the premise that Iran having a nuclear programme is necessarily a bad thing. However, not all of the versions of the nuclear programme are as bad. Accepting this as a starting point may bring... more
Mission impossible? Only if one adopts the premise that Iran having a nuclear programme is necessarily a bad thing. However, not all of the versions of the nuclear programme are as bad. Accepting this as a starting point may bring negotiations forward, not as the best, but certainly the least bad option on the table for all interested stakeholders.
Bioterrorism has been a growing security concern even though this topic does not receive as much attention as other topics such as nuclear proliferation. In order to understand the bioterrorist threat, this article will try to address the... more
Bioterrorism has been a growing security concern even though this topic does not receive as much attention as other topics such as nuclear proliferation. In order to understand the bioterrorist threat, this article will try to address the reasons behind the lack of bioterrorist attacks in recent years and the factors that are eroding these same restrictions. Finally, it is also important to know which terrorist groups are more willing
to perform bioterrorist attacks.
Throughout military history some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilities to military commanders. Some of those changes were so significant, as in the case of nuclear weapons, that they modified the strategic... more
Throughout military history some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilities to military commanders. Some of those changes were so significant, as
in the case of nuclear weapons, that they modified the strategic positions of the countries that possessed them within the international system. Although biological weapons
cannot destroy civilian or military infrastructure, they can kill people in large numbers.Because the effects of the dissemination of biological weapons are invisible, delayed and
uncertain, genetically modified biological weapons can acquire a deterrence capability that would present serious challenges to United States policymakers.

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