Russell Wise

South Africa is a water-stressed country, and predicted climate changes are expected to have an additional and possibly dramatic impact on the ability of local and national authorities to abide by national policy and deliver, free, a basic minimum of water and sanitation services to all households. The efficient and cost-effective provision of water and sanitation services is a critical challenge faced by all local authorities. Consequently, a clear understanding of the costs and benefits of alternative options for service provision is essential. Local governments therefore need decision-support tools that consider long time horizons, and which are simple to apply and not data intensive, in order to mainstream long-term planning for climate change adaptation. In this study an economic model was developed and used as a planning tool to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of serviceprovision options over a period of 50 years; where the cost of water was allowed to increase as a...

Bangladesh has a coastline of 710 km along the Bay of Bengal, which will be extremely exposed to climatic hazards over the coming decades. At present, the improvement of people’s livelihoods of this zone largely depends on the climate adaptation approaches adopted mainly through water management and agricultural practice. Although the cross-sectoral dimension of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) plan encourages stakeholder engagement during the development phase, subsequent implementation tends to be top-down in nature, which creates critical gaps between national and local level governance. Consequently, the outputs (policy, strategies, programs etc.) of ICZM, and recent coastal adaptation action plans, are ineffective in implementing, monitoring and evaluating the processes of achieving sustainable livelihoods in the coastal zone. Therefore the aim of this paper is to understand how different stakeholders and practitioners at different scales (national, district, local) make decisions on coastal climate adaptation. It also examines how they develop adaptation options suited to specific coastal regions, and assess people’s adaptive capacity to climate change. It reports on a comparative study of a coastal island and a coastal estuarine region in Bangladesh. Its findings demonstrate that the selection of priority components for decision making process and adaptation options in relation to 'sustainable coastal planning’ can help to overcome the institutional gaps and risks related to climate change. Considering the barriers to adoption and effective implementation of the ICZM, the case study evaluates the successes and failings of the decision making process, and its relevance for similar regions in other developing countries of the world.

The impact of an expanding bio-fuels sector in South Africa is expected to be widespread and substantial and could affect the agricultural sector. For example, an expanded bio-fuels industry in the country is predicted to lead to marginal price increases of 7.5% for milk, 2% for chicken, 9.6% for beef and 2.5% for eggs per annum until 2015. Although these price rises are not as high as those predicted in other countries, concerns are being raised that a larger bio-fuels industry could cause a serious food crisis in South Africa in the near future. The reasons for this concern include an estimated 14 million households in South Africa that are vulnerable to food insecurity and the precursors to the world food crisis in 1973-74 - poor global harvests and a reduction of global grain stocks through large purchases - are present again.

The Energy Cluster joint Indonesian-Australian researcher workshop was held in Bandung, Indonesia in late November 2014. A horizon scanning activity was undertaken on 24th November with 35 members of the Cluster, including representatives from the AIC and CSIRO. Five of the representatives were from Australia, with two from The Australian National University, two from Monash University and one from the University of Melbourne. The remaining participants were from Indonesian institutions including: UNHAS, IPB, ITSN, ITB, UI and UGM. The horizon scan workshop exercise aggregated participants' views into common issues, drivers and megashocks

ISBN: 978-1-84369-651-3 ISSN: 1605-1017 South Africa’s water resources are scarce, getting scarcer, and are often unpredictable. Long-term as well as seasonal water shortages are a reality in some areas and will become a binding constraint to economic development. However, an important shift in government attitudes and public awareness is leading to a multifaceted approach to water management. This change in approach presents an opportunity to evaluate the potential for a payments for catchment services scheme that could assist with water demand management.

Agroforests, where trees are planted with crops, are promoted as an appropriate and sustainable alternative to traditional agriculture as they meet landholder demands for food, income and wood products. This is essential in countries such as Indonesia where much of the landmass is not suitable for intensive cropping (either too steep or the soils are acidic and nutrient poor), yet population pressure and increasing food demand force many farmers to implement such practices on marginal land. These practices, combined with the lack of credit, quality seed and fertilizer have contributed to decreased soil fertility and increased deforestation and soil erosion. Previous research on agroforests suggests, however, that sustainability and profitability are not guaranteed and that the addition of fertilizer to the production system may be required. This is investigated for a hedgerow-intercropping system in the presence of carbon-sequestration payments using a bioeconomic modelling framewor...

In this paper the impacts of biodiesel feedstock production in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is assessed through the application of a Partial Equilibrium Model to the Eastern Cape Social Accounting Matrix, using canola production in the Province as an ‘external shock’. Six economic indicators were estimated. The results show that investment in biodiesel production in the Eastern Cape will generate, in 2007 terms, an additional GDP of R18.1 million and 410 employment opportunities per annum, R24.3 million per annum over an assumed lifetime of 20 years in capital formation, R2.1 million additional income generated in low income households, increase in government revenue, and a positive balance of payment. These indicators imply that, given the parameters that are accounted for in a Partial Equilibrium Model, every Rand invested in canola projects in the Eastern Cape will, overall, be of socio-economic advantage to the Province. It is envisaged that further applications of ...

A B S T R A C T The most critical question for climate research is no longer about the problem, but about how to facilitate the transformative changes necessary to avoid catastrophic climate-induced change. Addressing this question, however, will require massive upscaling of research that can rapidly enhance learning about transformations. Ten essentials for guiding action-oriented transformation and energy research are therefore presented, framed in relation to second-order science. They include: (1) Focus on transformations to low-carbon, resilient living; (2) Focus on solution processes; (3) Focus on 'how to' practical knowledge; (4) Approach research as occurring from within the system being intervened; (5) Work with normative aspects; (6) Seek to transcend current thinking; (7) Take a multi-faceted approach to understand and shape change; (8) Acknowledge the value of alternative roles of researchers; (9) Encourage second-order experimentation; and (10) Be reflexive. Joi...

The carbon footprint of materials and products is becoming an increasingly important factor in international trade. At present the carbon emissions balance of the South African economy is not well understood, especially the carbon emissions associated with imports and exports. An investigation was done of known economic input-output and life cycle analyses models addressing this shortcoming. The results reveal that South Africa is a major exporter of carbon; at least 129 per cent more carbon is associated with a dollar earned with exports than a dollar spent on imports, and the carbon footprint of the outflows on average, equates 37 per cent of the total carbon emissions of the economy. Such figures have serious policy-related implications in a future where international climate-change trade limitations will become stricter and binding. <br />

... And, according to Nelson et al. (1997), government-sponsored co-operatives have provided real discount rates of approximately 10 to 12%, even though real interest (discount) rates for upland farmers of over 100% have been reported. 2.2.4 Solving the Dynamic model ...

Agroforestry can help in the battle to control global warming by sequestering atmospheric CO2. Most attention so far has been on the carbon sequestered in trees, but soils can also contain considerable amounts of carbon, some of which is released upon harvest. There has been little quantification of the impact of different land-uses on soil carbon levels due to the

Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can enable ecosystem persistence and where transformation is inevitable. New ways of managing water that include consideration of the increasing importance of adaptation services requires major changes to decision-making that better account for landscape heterogeneity and large-scale change rather than attempting to maintain ecosystems in fixed states.

The goal of this project was to improve understanding of how the monetary and non-monetary values of coastal ecosystems may be affected by climate change and how the decision-making processes that affect Australia‘s coasts will need to adapt to account for these changing values. We show, based on analyses of four areas of decision making – problem diagnoses, values, economic evaluation, and planning – that a range of fundamental changes are required to effectively adapt our coasts to climate change. We examine how scientists, communities and decision makers might interact and converse about the challenges of adapting coastal areas to climate change in the presence of uncertainty and contested values and interests. Some of the key insights include: 1. Coastal management problems are often complex, multi-scale and non-linear, making them difficult to define and leading to multiple, legitimate and often contested solutions being proposed. 2. Existing decision-making and policy processe...

Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives. In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy

ABSTRACT Mesquite (Prosopis species) were introduced to South Africa to provide fodder and shade for livestock, but some have become invasive, impacting on water and grazing resources. Mesquite’s net economic effects are unclear and their unequal distribution leads to conflict. We estimated the value of mesquite invasions in the Northern Cape Province for different scenarios, differentiating between productive floodplains and upland areas. The estimated net economic value of mesquite in 2009, covering 1.47 million ha, was US$3.5–15.3 million. The value will become negative within 4–22 years, assuming annual rates of spread of 30 and 15%, respectively. The estimated 30-year present value (3% discount rate) of the benefits of control in the floodplains exceeded that of costs but the opposite was true in the uplands. Control efforts should therefore focus on floodplains while preventing spread from uplands into cleared or uninvaded floodplains. More efficient control methods are needed as estimated control costs (>US$9.5 million yr−1) exceed financial capabilities of Public Works programmes. Control in the floodplains was not economically justifiable using an 8% discount rate, because this substantially discounted future costs. We conclude that more effective control methods, such as biological control, are needed to prevent substantial economic losses.

ABSTRACT In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province's island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.

Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives. In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy

... Figure 1. Location of Watershed Projects in Australia. ... approxi-mately 4,000 landholders provided to the WCMA by the seven local governments in the Wimmera water-shed. ... first instance, landholder awareness of dry-land salinity and the efficacy of expert maps were assessed ...

Fa ir d ea ls fo rw a te rsh e d se rv ice s in S o u th A frica ... First published by the International Institute for Environment and Development (UK) in 2008 Copyright © International Institute for Environment and Development All rights reserved ... Further information on the contents ...

ABSTRACT South Africa aims to replace 2% of its total liquid transportation fuels in the short term through a newly introduced biofuels industrial strategy. It is envisaged that this target is achievable without excessive economic support by utilising surplus agricultural capacity. The target is based on local production, both agricultural and manufacturing, to provide the benefits of employment, economic growth and black economic empowerment through the value chain. This paper reviews the viability of the strategy in terms of the following three main conditions of sustainability, i.e. environmental, social and economic macro-forces. Further research requirements are identified to address uncertainties and improve policy and decision making, pertaining to the management of a viable biofuels sector in South Africa. The recommendations for further research are categorised into the six focus areas of life-cycle analyses, strategic assessments, farming practices, economic incentives, adaptive management and technology management.

Global sustainable development depends on the capacity of natural, social and economic systems to adapt to external stimuli. However, building this adaptive capacity in the developing world context of sub-Saharan Africa will require substantial investment in these systems, which most countries in this region simply cannot afford. Given that their social, economic and environmental security depends on developments in developing countries, we argue that developed countries should assume a leading role in making such investments in developing countries, in order to secure their own long-term well-being. This will require cooperative governance between developed and developing countries, and targeted investment in a number of key areas. This calls for a new global contract between rich and poor nations in order to achieve global stability and sustainability. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.