- Marjan Nikolov is a Docent at the International Slavic University. He used to teach public finance at local level and... moreMarjan Nikolov is a Docent at the International Slavic University. He used to teach public finance at local level and financing regional development at the Integrated Business Faculty in Skopje and was teaching at the NALAS summer school on public finance management topics at local government level. He used to work at the Economic Institute of Iceland as junior economist and at Ernstedit
The creation of an independent national fiscal institution can enhance fiscal transparency and contribute to improve sustainability of public finances as long as it is well-designed, it builds on political consensus and its operations... more
The creation of an independent national fiscal institution can enhance fiscal transparency and contribute to improve sustainability of public finances as long as it is well-designed, it builds on political consensus and its operations enjoy the support of citizens. A fiscal council must have an explicit statutory role to monitor fiscal policy, which should be based on explicit fiscal rules. In order to be able to exert positive pressure on policy makers towards more transparency and sound policies, it must also have access to relevant information and visibility in public debate. These are the necessary factors for a credible fiscal council in Macedonia.
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To assess the bottlenecks associated with the administrative barriers that cause inefficiency in the overall property tax administration process, we review the identified challenges based on the practical regulatory application and the... more
To assess the bottlenecks associated with the administrative barriers that cause inefficiency in the overall property tax administration process, we review the identified challenges based on the practical regulatory application and the views of the LSGUs, while also providing for suggestions for potential improvements/changes in the regulatory framework, the administration and in management of tax goal setting while also marginally contributing to the fiscal revenue management, at a municipal level.
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In many countries, an increase in tax revenues requires an effective and efficient tax system. There exist standard and non-standard measures for increasing tax revenues, however the standard measures for improving tax compliance and tax... more
In many countries, an increase in tax revenues requires an effective and efficient tax system.
There exist standard and non-standard measures for increasing tax revenues, however the
standard measures for improving tax compliance and tax morale, such as legislative and
administrative reforms, are not always sufficient. Standard measures can also be time-
limited, technologically unacceptable, resources-limited, or politically restrained.
The non-standard measures, on the other hand, rely on a fundamental understanding of
human behavior and the individuals’ interaction between public policies and programs, with
the sole purpose of providing creative and effective solutions for tax compliance. In addition
to that, greater awareness of citizens for tax payment is required for establishing a better
tax collection in North Macedonia.
There exist standard and non-standard measures for increasing tax revenues, however the
standard measures for improving tax compliance and tax morale, such as legislative and
administrative reforms, are not always sufficient. Standard measures can also be time-
limited, technologically unacceptable, resources-limited, or politically restrained.
The non-standard measures, on the other hand, rely on a fundamental understanding of
human behavior and the individuals’ interaction between public policies and programs, with
the sole purpose of providing creative and effective solutions for tax compliance. In addition
to that, greater awareness of citizens for tax payment is required for establishing a better
tax collection in North Macedonia.
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Tax responsibility Project-Towards civic responsibility and responsible tax Web page: www.cea.org.mk Project funded by the European Union This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this... more
Tax responsibility Project-Towards civic responsibility and responsible tax Web page: www.cea.org.mk Project funded by the European Union This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and the Center for Economic Analyses and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union
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We examine the effects of a tax behaviour nudging experiment on non-compliant property taxpayers in three Macedonian municipalities. The results indicate that on average the deterrence message was almost 6 percentage points more effective... more
We examine the effects of a tax behaviour nudging experiment on non-compliant property taxpayers in three Macedonian municipalities. The results indicate that on average the deterrence message was almost 6 percentage points more effective for non-compliant taxpayers when compared to the control group, while the social norm message and public good message were on average 4.4 and 3.2 percentage points more effective when compared with the control group, respectively. Furthermore, age as a variable is significant and negatively associated with tax compliance behaviour in one of the three municipalities. Finally, we recommend the experiment's approach to policymakers as effective, while being inexpensive and not requiring legislative changes.
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While countries in the region, according to the EU, do not effectively and transparently control state aid, and provide a range of incentives for foreign investment, in the race to attract investments, countries in the region are in... more
While countries in the region, according to the EU, do not effectively and transparently control state aid, and provide a range of incentives for foreign investment, in the race to attract investments, countries in the region are in "competition" to provide better conditions for investors that could lead to the so-called "race to the bottom." The aim of this study is to review the current situation regarding the development of state aid policies in countries in the region in the context of attracting foreign investment and to identify possible implications for the regional economies from incentive-based policies.
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North Macedonia can improve its economic growth by addressing the infrastructure gap by at least full capital budget utilisation. The outturn/execution of capital budget expenditures is low and in relative terms decreasing. The planned... more
North Macedonia can improve its economic growth by addressing the infrastructure gap by at least full capital budget utilisation. The outturn/execution of capital budget expenditures is low and in relative terms decreasing. The planned public finances for regional balanced development are also low and non-compliant with the legally set levels. A test of several hypothetical scenarios of full capital budget utilisation it is expected to positively contribute to the economic growth immediately and in the period to follow. Even if total debt increases in nominal terms, in relative terms the debt-to-GDP on a longer-run reduces through generating additional economic output.
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Unemployment remains one of the largest issues in the Northeast planning region (NERP) in the Republic of Macedonia. The employment rate of 30.3% in the region is well below the national average and unemployment rate of 44% is almost 16... more
Unemployment remains one of the largest issues in the Northeast planning region (NERP) in the Republic of Macedonia. The employment rate of 30.3% in the region is well below the national average and unemployment rate of 44% is almost 16 percentage points above the national average, and highest rate compared with the rest of the regions in Macedonia. Thus the issue of unemployment is a strong reason and an incentive to analyze in-depth: what are the characteristics of the labor supply among young people - unemployed, in terms of demand; what are the constraints of the labor supply versus demand; what policies / reforms / actions are appropriate for resolving potential gaps between the labor market supply and demand etc. This research revealed a number of interesting characteristics of labor demand/supply - that the business sector, especially in NEPR requires a workforce with skills and knowledge in order to carry out specific working tasks and higher education, focusing on the posse...
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The transparency strengthens the credibility of the government policies and improves fiscal discipline while at the same time enabling a platform for citizens’ satisfaction for the public services it provides, for participation of the... more
The transparency strengthens the credibility of the government policies and improves fiscal discipline while at the same time enabling a platform for citizens’ satisfaction for the public services it provides, for participation of the citizens in the process of preparation of the public policies and an ultimately increased willingness to pay (more) for the public services. In essence, an effective local governments’ transparency is necessary for accountability and these are not an end in itself, but means to support effective and inclusive decision-making in the budgeting (national and local). The bottom-up participatory structures for enhancement of the local government transparency and accountability need to be enwoven in both the legal, political, and administrative tools for active involvement of the civic sector for participation. The legal and budgetary mechanism that enable contribution from the local communities/citizens are especially important for certain local government ...
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Sažetak The paper focuses on regional disparities in the quality of life in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It explores the relationship between the quality of life, social exclusion, and policies towards regional and local... more
Sažetak The paper focuses on regional disparities in the quality of life in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It explores the relationship between the quality of life, social exclusion, and policies towards regional and local economic development. The paper is based on a household survey carried out in August 2008 which provides a detailed picture of the situation facing households across regions. Overall, the survey shows that there are large regional disparities in life satisfaction, indicating an important role for ...
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... 22: 339.743 (497.7) OPENNESS OF THE CAPITAL MARKET IN MACEDONIA Marjan Nikolov, MSc Centre for Economic Analyses-CEA Macedonia ... model Here a measure of openness of the capital account in an empirical environment follows the Edwards... more
... 22: 339.743 (497.7) OPENNESS OF THE CAPITAL MARKET IN MACEDONIA Marjan Nikolov, MSc Centre for Economic Analyses-CEA Macedonia ... model Here a measure of openness of the capital account in an empirical environment follows the Edwards and Khan (1985) and ...
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Labor migration and remittances have become increasingly important for many developing and transition countries in recent decades. In the case of Macedonia, labor migration has a long history, going back for a century or even more. Yet,... more
Labor migration and remittances have become increasingly important for many developing and transition countries in recent decades. In the case of Macedonia, labor migration has a long history, going back for a century or even more. Yet, remittance flows have ignited considerable interest within the academic and policy community in the last few years, as net private transfers in Macedonia increased from 565.75 Millions of EUR in 2003 to 923.07 Millions of EUR in 2006. Despite the high level of remittances, little is known about the sources of remittances (or the main source countries of remittance transfers), the demographic and educational profile of senders and recipient households, the final use of remittance inflows (household consumption, investments or savings), the role of the formal financial sector, the link between remittances and financial development and the prospective trends. Without proper survey data, accurate estimation of remittance flows and how they are impacting ...
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The process of decentralization in Macedonia started on July 1st 2005. One year is not enough to do an all en-compassing evaluation of the process but a low cost monitoring can follow the changes, lower the cost of future evaluation and... more
The process of decentralization in Macedonia started on July 1st 2005. One year is not enough to do an all en-compassing evaluation of the process but a low cost monitoring can follow the changes, lower the cost of future evaluation and give some insights related to performance measurement of the transferred competencies to LGU level, fiscal gap, vertical and horizontal equalization etc. We consider the child care transfers of competency from central to local level and try to measure the efficiency and productivity of this public sector by using the nonpara-metric DEA method.
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The transparency strengthens the credibility of the government policies and improves fiscal discipline while at the same time enables a platform for enhanced citizens’ satisfaction of the public services; participation of the citizens in... more
The transparency strengthens the credibility of the government policies and improves fiscal discipline while at the same time enables a platform for enhanced citizens’ satisfaction of the public services; participation of the citizens in the process of preparation of the public policies and ultimately increases the willingness to pay (more) for the public services. An effective local governments’ transparency is necessary for accountability. While these two are not an end in itself are however pertinent means to support an effective and inclusive decision-making within the budgeting process. The legal and budgetary mechanism that enable contribution from the local communities/ citizens are particularly important for certain local government decisions in order to increase the accessibility to the general public i.e. the citizens at large. This paper evaluates the budget transparency among the eighty one (81) local self-government units in Macedonia through an index measuring the degr...
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Measurement and assessment of the shadow economy is an area of research which is always challenging and surrounded with debate and ambiguity. In this research we use the indirect method used by Kaufman and Kaliberda like the Electricity... more
Measurement and assessment of the shadow economy is an area of research which is always challenging and surrounded with debate and ambiguity. In this research we use the indirect method used by Kaufman and Kaliberda like the Electricity Consumption Method (ECM) as well as the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach which is structural modeling using the shadow economy as a latent variable considering several causes and indicators of the SE. The ECM results of SE estimates are discussed within the framework of the possible causes of the SE like: tax and social contributions, social transfers paid by the Government of Macedonia (GoM), regulatory intensity, corruption level, global economic crisis. We also give raw estimates of the shadow employment rate. Next, we discuss the structure of the shadow economy by industries in accordance with the ECM method and we once again discuss the informal economy estimates of CEA done in 2009. The estimates of the SE by the State stati...
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This is the first study which estimates costs and benefits of overall policy reform for implementation of performance based budgeting. Costs estimation is based on a phased implementation, where we consult the Regulatory Impact Assessment... more
This is the first study which estimates costs and benefits of overall policy reform for implementation of performance based budgeting. Costs estimation is based on a phased implementation, where we consult the Regulatory Impact Assessment methodology. In order to estimate benefits, we use a microeconomic approach to assess technical efficiency (Data Envelopment Analysis-DEA and Stochastic Frontier Analysis-SFA) of the budget users. The estimated benefits are higher than the estimated costs, or for every Macedonian denar invested in this reform an additional 2,600-8,000 Macedonian denars of gross value added in the Macedonian GDP are expected.
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Macedonia is a small relatively open economy and its interest rate policy is very much linked to its exchange rate policy. The more integrated it became with the international financial market the more the interest rate policy will be... more
Macedonia is a small relatively open economy and its interest rate policy is very much linked to its exchange rate policy. The more integrated it became with the international financial market the more the interest rate policy will be dependent on the exchange rate regime. One reason to analyze the behavior of the interest rate level in Macedonia is the differential between the interest rates in Macedonia and the Euro zone. In accordance with the uncovered interest rate parity, the more open the economy is the domestic interest rate should be converging to the Euro zone interest rate. If the difference, i.e. the parity spread, is high in an environment of integrated financial sector and Macedonia and still experiencing high interest rates, then the differential may be explained as a premium for the expectation of future depreciation and/or devaluation of the Macedonian Denar. Explanation then might be that there exist a misalignment within the fixed exchange rate regime in Macedonia...
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This paper was prepared in order to provoke debate about the needs in the Republic of Macedonia for capital investments, to illustrate own capacity for capital investments and to promote the needs to intensify the use of Public-Private... more
This paper was prepared in order to provoke debate about the needs in the Republic of Macedonia for capital investments, to illustrate own capacity for capital investments and to promote the needs to intensify the use of Public-Private Partnership-PPP. This discussion paper is neither intended to make an exhaustive and systematic analysis of the transition period economic results in Macedonia, nor to analyse the potential of the Macedonian economy for sustainable development. Therefore, the beginning of the text is an attempt to illustrate the status of Macedonia with its infrastructure and basic resources, i.e. needs for capital investments, and then to provide basic information about the potential for investment. It follows a brief description of competencies which are decentralized, basic cost drivers for the decentralized competencies and finally what are the challenges for the local government in Macedonia. This paper should motivate a request for preparation of an exhaustive s...
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In this paper we illustrate the development of Kumanovo and Tetovo municipalities during the centrally planned economy within Yugoslavia and their share in the local economy of the Socialist Republic of Macedonia. We also illustrate the... more
In this paper we illustrate the development of Kumanovo and Tetovo municipalities during the centrally planned economy within Yugoslavia and their share in the local economy of the Socialist Republic of Macedonia. We also illustrate the recent rational behavior of the citizens of Kumanovo and Tetovo that are engaged in the economy of Afghanistan and Iraq. The end use of the remittances that fuel the economies of Tetovo and Kumanovo are different one economy from the other. The possible explanation goes deeper in the characteristics of the early development of the two cities in the socialism before the 1990 when the transition started.
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Public private partnership - PPP in Macedonia potentially is desirable instrument but should be approached carefully within a system. The usual model used in Macedonia is concession and less or non private finance initiative. The private... more
Public private partnership - PPP in Macedonia potentially is desirable instrument but should be approached carefully within a system. The usual model used in Macedonia is concession and less or non private finance initiative. The private finance initiative requires more focus on the value for money research and risk analysis among all and building trust among potential partners as well. This paper illustrates the main elements of the PPP study prepared for the public transportation company JSP Skopje in Macedonia.
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To avoid imprecision and to adjust the inflation to every individual's consumer basket, we created the personal inflation calculator. This calculator gives the opportunity to every person to calculate their personal inflation rate... more
To avoid imprecision and to adjust the inflation to every individual's consumer basket, we created the personal inflation calculator. This calculator gives the opportunity to every person to calculate their personal inflation rate (adjusted to their consumer basket). The number is always significantly different from the average inflation rate given by the Statistical Office. That was the reason why Center for Economic Analyses made the Personal Inflation Calculator, which is available on the organization's web site. The Personal Inflation Calculator will solve the doubts of the Macedonian citizens about the influence of the inflation over their personal budgets.
The paper provides an approach to defining organizational effectiveness as a state of relations within and among relevant constituencies of the organization. Further on a review of relevant research on evaluating orga-nizational... more
The paper provides an approach to defining organizational effectiveness as a state of relations within and among relevant constituencies of the organization. Further on a review of relevant research on evaluating orga-nizational effectiveness is provided and a methodology for evaluating effectiveness through a multiple con-stituency approach is proposed. The method is elaborated and tested on a case, of one administrative agency in the Republic of Macedonia, the Administration Agency for a period of 13 years.
This paper gives an overview of the public procurement system in Macedonia as well as the experience of its operation since 2007 until 2017. The paper is based on the documents from the relevant Macedonian state bodies, SIGMA, EU progress... more
This paper gives an overview of the public procurement system in Macedonia as well as the experience of its operation since 2007 until 2017. The paper is based on the documents from the relevant Macedonian state bodies, SIGMA, EU progress reports and Civil Society Organizations (CSO) that are operating in the field of the public procurement. We present the institutional and legal aspects as well as the experience with the operation of the public procurement management and the proper remedy bodies. We also touch the aspects of corruption and the public procurement experience in Macedonia.
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In a VAR estimation the preference for variables to be stationary exists. The tests for cointegration ranks in Johansen type of ECM are sensitive to the values of the parameters in finite samples and hence not very reliable for economic... more
In a VAR estimation the preference for variables to be stationary exists. The tests for cointegration ranks in Johansen type of ECM are sensitive to the values of the parameters in finite samples and hence not very reliable for economic time series consequently and thus, the strategy for testing economic hypothesis conditioned on the estimation of a unit root, a cointegrating rank and cointegrating vectors may suffer from severe pretest biases. The significance of the fiscal synchronization hypothesis in Macedonia shows that the Government in the period 1995-2004 was planning the fiscal strategy in a cost benefit framework by simultaneously comparing the marginal revenues with the marginal costs. However, a causality relationship between the industrial output and the Government fiscal operations was not significant.
Beyond its intrinsic value for individuals, improving and protecting health is also central to overall human devel-opment and to the reduction of poverty. Enjoying the highest attainable standard of health is one of the funda-mental... more
Beyond its intrinsic value for individuals, improving and protecting health is also central to overall human devel-opment and to the reduction of poverty. Enjoying the highest attainable standard of health is one of the funda-mental rights of every human being without distinction of race, religion, political belief and economic or social condition. Good health contributes to development through a number of pathways, having a macroeconomic impact, intergenerational spillover effects that are clearly shown in micro-economic activities, not least in the household itself. Based on this, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of the health costs of reducing the poverty in the Republic of Macedonia, this specifically by excluding the health cost from the poor family budgets, and to, therefore, reduce the inequality in the country. The at-risk-of-poverty rate in the Republic of Macedonia in 2015 is 21.5% and the Gini coefficient 33.7%.The study examines health cost based on availab...
We try to set up a statistical model to measure the queuing system at the banking system in Macedonia. The illustrative statistical model shows possible not viable queuing systems in the biggest Macedonian banks that lead on one side... more
We try to set up a statistical model to measure the queuing system at the banking system in Macedonia. The illustrative statistical model shows possible not viable queuing systems in the biggest Macedonian banks that lead on one side toward short term cost savings for the banks in terms of fewer employees for the service points but in long run it builds customer's dissatisfaction and social and transactional costs. This research sets up a base for more in depth research about the bank's operations with households operations as customers and might increase the awareness about the customers and banks to improve the existing situation.
Macedonia is a small and open economy and its interest rate policy is very much linked to its exchange rate policy. The more integrated it became with the international financial market the more the interest rate policy will be dependent... more
Macedonia is a small and open economy and its interest rate policy is very much linked to its exchange rate policy. The more integrated it became with the international financial market the more the interest rate policy will be dependent on the exchange rate regime. In accordance with the uncovered interest rate parity, the more open the economy is the domestic interest rate should be converging to the Euro zone interest rate. If the difference, i.e. the parity spread, is high in an environment of integrated financial sector and Macedonia is still experiencing high interest rates, then the differential may be explained as a premium for the expectation of future depreciation and/or devaluation of the Macedonian Denar. Explanation might be that there exist a misalignment within the fixed exchange rate regime in Macedonia thus, creating incentives for the market to expect depreciation/devaluation. The type of expectation (whether they are rational or adaptive) is very important, as sho...
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The public, donor community and the political subjects in Macedonia are occupied with the issues of decentralization. The bills package on territorial division, financing LSG and the status of the capital Skopje have passed the... more
The public, donor community and the political subjects in Macedonia are occupied with the issues of decentralization. The bills package on territorial division, financing LSG and the status of the capital Skopje have passed the government/parliament procedure. In this paper some recent developments and challenges on the newly enacted law on financing LSG will be presented. We will use the main pillars of fiscal decentralization approach. Also, an attempt is made to estimate the fiscal capacity of LSG by using three techniques: the own revenue collection, GDP per LSG and the representative tax system with regression analyses. The deficiency here is the availability of data. Namely the revenue data are available for the NUTS 4 level that is the 34 LSG from the before 1996 territorial organization. Estimation is conducted for the unconditional horizontal equalization formula in accordance with the new law on financing LSG. In the end some administrative implication from the law are illustrated and some comments on the statistical information system in the country related to the LSG are illustrated.
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Овој документ е изработен од Центарот за економски анализи во рамки на Проектот на УСАИД за Зајакнување на капацитети за искористување на ресурсите.
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The main goal of this Manual is to adapt a credit worthiness tool as a mean of preparing Local Governments for borrowing as of July 2007 according to the Law on Financing of the LSG in Macedonia. This Manual was developed by also taking... more
The main goal of this Manual is to adapt a credit worthiness tool as a mean of preparing Local Governments for borrowing as of July 2007 according to the Law on Financing of the LSG in Macedonia. This Manual was developed by also taking into account the criteria of the international credit rating agencies.
Марјан Николов, makmar2000@yahoo.com Центар за економски анализи, www.cea.org.mk Факултет за бизнис економија, www.ibf.edu.mk Вовед Преку теоријата на јавните финансии и политичката економија се анализираат повеќе категории меѓу кои за... more
Марјан Николов, makmar2000@yahoo.com Центар за економски анализи, www.cea.org.mk Факултет за бизнис економија, www.ibf.edu.mk Вовед Преку теоријата на јавните финансии и политичката економија се анализираат повеќе категории меѓу кои за потребите на оваа анализа и улогата на владата, интересите на актерите во јавните финансии, достапноста на информациите и транспарентноста. Владата може да се анализира како место за донесување на одлуки каде се прибираат информации за преференциите на граѓаните и тие информации понатаму се користат за донесување на општествено корисни одлуки. Во ваква работна дефиниција за идеална влада не е земена во предвид претпоставката за нејзините сопствени интереси што секако е недостаток при моделирање на реалноста. Во политичката економија пак од особен интерес е да се анализира и растот на владините расходи за што понатаму во тексот ќе илустрираме неколку комплементарни современи теории. Фискалната транспарентност пак во јавните финансии е главен елемент на доброто владино управување кое понатаму води кон макроекономска и фискална стабилност и конечно е детерминанта за повисоки стапки на економски раст. Фискалната транспарентност може да служи и за рано идентификување на потенцијални ризици по фискалните резултати што пак води кон рано предупредување и соодветна фискална реакција при променети економски претпоставки. Понатаму, фискалната транспарентост овозможува отчетност кон граѓаните-даночни обврзници, а и овозможува подобра кредитоспособност кон меѓународниот пазар на капитал. Имајќи го во предвид значењето кое ММФ го имаше за Македонија во текот на транзицијата фискалната транспарентност ќе ја анализираме и преку примена на прирачникот на ММФ за фискална транспарентност и препораките за буџетски практики на владините финансиски работници на САД. Транспарентноста секогаш е поврзана со асиметрични информации и колку повеќе се настојува системски да се намали асиметричноста (што пак директно е поврзано со поголема достапност на информации и зајакнување на интегритетот на јавната администрација) толку повеќе би се зголемувала транспарентноста, а со тоа и отчетноста и поефикасната алокација на ограничените ресурси. Несиметричноста на информации е поврзана и со микроекономскиот проблем на principle-agent кој особено е присутен на ниво на јавни финансии, владини расходи и буџетски процес. Затоа во оваа анализа презентираме и резултати од спроведеното анкетно истражување каде испитаници беа претставници на државната администрација каде беше оставен простор и за само-оценување. 1 При користење на овој документ обавезно е да се цитира насловот и авторот.