Dr. Chandra Rekha

Post Cold War international relations have undeniably been a litmus test for the bilateral relations between India and Russia. With the emergence of a new international system, the foreign policies of both countries vacillated to explore new avenues of partnerships with other international players, an opportunity that otherwise proved effective to a large extent. National priorities and the geo-political architecture remodelled by the US, thus, compelled New Delhi and Moscow to pursue a foreign policy that moved away from serving the interests of each other. While defining the trends in the bilateral relations between the two countries, the strategic community has questioned whether the relationship can remain as special and strategic as it had been in the past. Are both countries still as relevant to one another as they once were?

As the constant debate revolves around these questions, the two entities have, however, indicated a certain level of distinguishing characteristics in order to address the complexities and challenges in the partnership and have acknowledged that their relationship is not only special but also indispensable. What has also continued to remain undamaged and an integral part of the bilateral relations is mutual trust, understanding and concern, thus, resulting in maturity and pragmatism, irrespective of the uncertainties that the two countries face. It is in this context, that the new stage in the bilateral relations between the two countries requires a thorough assessment. It stands to reason that with the developments that are taking place in the current international milieu, there is a need for India and Russia to reemphasise their strong strategic partnership, goodwill and diplomatic trust that have stood the test of time. This book undertakes a serious assessment of the strategic partnership in the contemporary international set up. The seven chapters of the book attempt to address the myriad challenges through detailed analyses and evaluation of the partnership between India and Russia in various spheres, including the political, defence, economic, nuclear, energy, science and technology, security, and strategic engagement.

The defence partnership between India and Russia has achieved new capacities through acquisitions of upgraded weapons supply, military technical cooperation and joint development of weapons. Russia has undoubtedly played an important role in India's quest for military modernisation. The collapse of the Soviet Union had a domino effect on especially India, which until then had pursued a Soviet-centric defence procurement policy and was exclusively dependent upon it for defence upgradation. India-Russia bilateral relations were energised after the signing of the 'Declaration of Strategic Cooperation' in 2000. The Treaty aimed to bridge the gap that had emerged in the bilateral relations post-Soviet disintegration. The defence cooperation between the two countries is however not without challenges especially given the current Sino-Russia defence cooperation and India's diversification of defence procurement market. India-Russia defence relation have seen an ebb and flow  in recent years, but is it less volatile than is generally portrayed?

As the widespread of coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to threaten the global community, Russia offers a curious case study given the fact that a possible large scale impact of COVID-19 may have on its demography which has been one of the most extreme aspects of its domestic crisis. The pandemic impact of the COVID-19 has also posed a challenge to the preparedness of Russia's healthcare sector and medicinal science given the fact that Russia is now one of the pioneering countries working to find the COVID-19 vaccine. It is also important to evaluate the impact of a longer quarantine of human resources on Russian economy. Russia today largely focuses on reviving its global image through public diplomacy, its role therefore in tackling the pandemic COVID-19 along with other countries needs due attention.

India and Russia have endorsed the importance of the 'Special and Privileged Strategic' partnership as a result of the historical foundation of the partnership, strategic cultures and also keeping in pace with the geopolitical and geo-economic developments. Given the contemporary geopolitical realities of international relations, India and Russia have pursued a pragmatic approach to promote their respective foreign policy interests. In the context of growing security and strategic concerns, the engagement of both India and Russia with other international actors such as India's growing proximity with the US and Russia's strengthening of relations with China has resulted in diversifying the foreign policy approach respectively. These developments call for an assessment of what the India-Russia strategic partnership holds in coming years.

The 2014 Ukraine crisis became a turning point in revitalising the strategic partnership between Russia and China. Most evident of the shifting trends in the partnership is the defence engagement between Russia and China which today is set to include cooperation in sensitive fields, such as strategic missile defence, hypersonic technology, and the construction of nuclear submarines. While there are growing debates on Russia becoming a ‘junior partner’ in the relationship with China, defence cooperation between the two countries speaks otherwise. Despite China’s pursuit of indigenisation of its defence industry since 2000, it continues to largely depend on Russia for high end weapons and technological assistance. President Putin had recently revealed that Russia has agreed to ‘help’ its Chinese partners create a missile attack warning system. This is set to drastically increase China’s defence capability and put the Chinese on par with the United States and Russia who have such systems now. Strengthening of defence cooperation between Russia and China in recent times seems to largely focus on strategic deterrence against defence capabilities of the US. But given the historical 1969 military tension phase between Russia and China, the technological theft by China, the trimming down of defence budget of Russia and the growing competition in global arms market, it is crucial to evaluate whether the defence cooperation between Russia and China will become an ‘Achilles heel’ in their strategic partnership in coming years.

Russia's economic condition after the imposition of sanctions in 2014 by the West has made its ambitious projects in the Far East largely static due to shortfall in financial investments. The call for foreign direct investment (FDI) has seen proactive engagements from some of the most economically progressive Asia-Pacific countries. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) since its inception by Russia has attracted multiple external stake holders such as China, Japan and India. However, enhancing India's engagement in the FAR is not without challenges especially with China's growing presence in Russia's projects in the region. China has set up joint projects in energy, large scale investments, infrastructure and technology in the Far East thus making it a dominant external actor in the Far East. China hence is posing a major challenge to countries such as India that are relatively new players in the Far East.

The demise of the INF treaty between Russia and the United States (US) has drawn critical scrutiny. Whilst both Russia and the US have traded allegations and counter-allegations over responsibility for the demise of the INF treaty, global concerns mount about an intensified to nuclear arms race. The demise of the Treaty has further presaged the emergence of the ‘new’ Cold War (NCW) narrative. The question is whether the current Russia-US rivalry is indeed a NCW phase or is it a mere case of failed accommodation of interests by both the countries at the bilateral level. Also, the emergence of this New Cold War narrative for the West towards Russia is limited to its military resurgence. Interestingly, Russia too seem to accept this narrative. This could possibly because it elevates its position in the great power rivalry in par with the US despite its many drawbacks such as in its economic growth performance. Given these scenarios, it is crucial to evaluate the relevance of INF Treaty in today’s global context, and deconstruct the much hyped NCW narrative to evaluate the future scope of Russia-US relations and its likely impact on common partners such as India.

The Russian Far East has emerged as a national priority in recent times. Given its geographical location and economic potentials, the FAR is predictably one of the most crucial regions for regional connectivity and economic integration. The region is home to rich oil and natural gas, iron ore and copper, diamonds and gold, timber and fresh fish stocks. The agricultural sector in particular has emerged as a major focus area for Russia. The introduction of the Russian Homestead Act comes in the wake of encouraging local residents and foreign nationals alike to explore the potentials of the agriculture, development of agro-industries and agro-processing complexes in the Far East. In the context of the ‘Russian Homestead Act’ in 2016 and India being host to one of the largest agricultural farmers’ immigration in the world, the need for both India and Russia to tap the potentials of agricultural sector is crucial.

The growing trends in the bilateral engagements between India and Saudi Arabia today constitute defence, strategy, security, investments, science and technology, education alongside trade, energy and Diaspora factors. There is visibly a growing camaraderie and understanding of the potentials that the bilateral partnership holds. Given the developments in the partnership between the two countries, it is important to evaluate various factors and challenges that could further enhance the bilateral engagements between the two countries.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyib Erdogan's foreign policy today is widely debated and monitored as it is undergoing a major transition. President Erdogan who is known for his Islamist inclinations and sympathies with the Muslim Brotherhood, is restructuring Turkey's foreign policy orientation especially given the downturn in with its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ally-the United States. Today, the erstwhile long term partners-Turkey and the US have found each other on opposing sides on many issues. The US is also restructuring its foreign policy orientations under President Donald Trump. With the call for 'America first' policy, and imposition of unilateral sanctions, some argue that the US is heading towards 'isolationalism 2.0' that has led to a lowering of confidence among its allies including Turkey, which now seems ready to act alone in situations such as resolving the Syrian crisis. Turkey had traditionally pursued a Euro-Atlantic centric foreign policy interests and its role and contribution as the member state of NATO has been pivotal to its allies due to its strategic, economic and military capabilities. In recent years, Turkey under Erdogan is exploring the prospects of a diversified foreign policy that has led to a revamping of relations with Russia, a larger role in West Asian geopolitics, wider participation with non-Western countries and organisations such as BRICS and SCO. Recently, this approach has been marked by bouts of frictions with the US.

India and the United States' Foreign and Defense Ministers are set to meet for the inaugural 2+2 Talks on 6 September 2018 in New Delhi. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the US in 2017, the two countries agreed for structured talks to build an ambitious partnership and for prompt redressal of bottlenecks that could impact the progress of the partnership in the future. The talks were earlier scheduled to take place in April this year but were postponed twice. During the high level talks, India and the US also seek to finalise defence agreements including Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which would enable the two countries to share advanced satellite data for navigation and missile targeting. 1 The talks have nevertheless garnered much attention mainly due to the recent developments. The impact of US' unilateral actions against Iran and Russia are felt by countries such as India which share long standing economic and political relations with both countries. The agenda of the talks as stated by Defence Minister Nirmala Sitaraman is to develop and strengthen defence cooperation. However, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Sitharaman are also expected to discuss the impact of US initiated Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on India's military purchases from Russia and also the issue of crude oil import from Iran, which also falls under the US imposed sanctions. There is therefore an emerging issue of some friction as India is keen to pursue long standing defence and trade ties with Russia and Iran despite the imposition of sanctions by the US on both these countries.