TOPIC 10

Probability
10.1 Overview
Numerous videos and interactivities are embedded just
where you need them, at the point of learning, in your
learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. They will help you to
learn the concepts covered in this topic.

10.1.1 Why learn this?

Probability allows us to describe how likely an event is to
happen. To understand the chances of an event happening it
is important to understand the language of probability. Probability is widely used in descriptions of everyday
events; for example, the chance that there will be a wet day next week, or the chance of winning lotto.

DISCUSSION
Do you think it is fair that car insurance for young drivers is higher than for older drivers? Why or why not?

LEARNING SEQUENCE
10.1 Overview
10.2 The language of chance
10.3 The sample space
10.4 Simple probability
10.5 Using a table to show sample spaces [Going further]
10.6 Experimenting with chance [Going further]
10.7 Review

LEARNING OUTCOMES
A student:
• communicates and connects mathematical ideas using appropriate terminology, diagrams and symbols MA4-1WM
• applies appropriate mathematical techniques to solve problems MA4-2WM
• recognises and explains mathematical relationships using reasoning MA4-3WM
• represents probabilities of simple and compound events MA4-21SP

CONTENT DESCRIPTIONS
Students:
Construct sample spaces for single-step experiments with equally likely outcomes (ACMSP167)
Assign probabilities to the outcomes of events and determine probabilities for events (ACMSP168)
Source: NSW Syllabus for the Australian curriculum

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

eLesson: The story of mathematics — What are the chances? (eles-1700)

Note: Your teacher may now set you a pre-test to determine how familiar you are with the content in this
topic.

TOPIC 10 Probability 447

10.2 The language of chance
10.2.1 Chance
•• An event is a result that may occur.
•• When rating the chance of an event occurring, we use words like certain, likely, even chance, unlikely
and impossible.
•• The probability of an event occurring is given a value between 0 and 1 inclusive.
•• If an event is certain, like an Australian Cricket team being named this summer, the probability of it
occurring is 1.
•• If an event is impossible, such as Christmas Day falling in June this year, the probability of it
occurring is 0.
•• If a chance experiment has an even chance of occurring, such as the probability of tossing a head
with a fair coin, the probability of it occurring is 0.5. Probabilities can be written as decimals,
1
fractions and percentages. For example, 0.5 = = 50%.
2
•• The probability scale, below, associates important words used in describing probability with their
approximate corresponding numerical values.

Highly Unlikely Even Likely Highly

unlikely chance likely

Impossible Very Less than Better than Very Certain

unlikely even chance even chance likely

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

DISCUSSION
What are other examples of events that have a probability of 0, 0.5 or 1?

WORKED EXAMPLE 1

For each of the given statements, specify whether the chance of the following events occurring is
certain, likely, even chance, unlikely or impossible.
a You will compete in the next Olympics.
b Every student in Year 7 will obtain 100% in their next mathematics test.
c Each person in your class has been to the zoo.
d You flip a coin and Tails comes up.
e March is followed by April.
THINK WRITE
a 1 Read the given statement and associate a The chance of a person competing in the next
the chance of the event occurring with Olympics is very small; however, it could happen.
one of the given words from the list.
Provide reasons.

2 Answer the question. It is highly unlikely that this event will occur.

448 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

b Repeat steps 1 and 2 of part a. b Due to each student having different capabilities
and the number of students involved, this situation
could never happen. It is impossible for this event
to occur.

c Repeat steps 1 and 2 of part a. c The chance that each student in your class has been
to the zoo, either with their family or primary
school, is very probable. However, there may be a
few students who missed out.
It is likely this event will occur.
d Repeat steps 1 and 2 of part a. d When you flip a coin in a chance experiment there
are only two possibilities, a Head or a Tail. So there
is a 50% chance of Tails coming up.
There is an even chance this event will occur.

e Repeat steps 1 and 2 of part a. e This is a true statement. April always follows the
month of March.
It is certain this event will occur.

WORKED EXAMPLE 2

Assign a number between and including 0 and 1 to represent the estimated probability of the
following events, depending on how likely they are.
a One of two evenly matched tennis players will win the next game.
b You will guess the correct answer on a multiple choice question with four options.
c Rolling a fair die and obtaining a number less than 6.
THINK WRITE
a 1 Determine the likelihood of a Since the two players are evenly matched, one does not have
an event occurring, with an advantage over the other. Therefore, they each have an
reasoning. equal chance of winning the next game.

2 Express the answer as a 1

The probability that one player wins the game is or 0.5.
decimal. 2
b 1 Determine the likelihood of b When guessing an answer on a multiple choice question with
an event occurring, with 4 options, 1 out of the 4 possibilities will be correct. One out
reasoning. of 4 may be expressed as a fraction.
2 Express the answer as a 1
The probability of guessing the correct answer is or 0.25.
decimal. 4
c 1 Determine the likelihood of c In the chance experiment of rolling a die there are six
an event occurring, with possibilities. They are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. A number less than 6
reasoning. includes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Therefore, five out of the six
possibilities may be rolled. Five out of six may be expressed
as a fraction.
2 Express the answer as a 5
The probability of obtaining a number less than six is or
decimal, correct to 2 decimal 6
places. approximately 0.83.

TOPIC 10 Probability 449

 ACTIVITY: DRAW A SPINNER
Draw a spinner with the following probabilities.
1 2
a. P(blue) = and P(white) =
3 3
1 1 1 1
b. P(blue) = , P(white) = , P(green) = and P(red) =
2 4 8 8
c. P(blue) = 0.75 and P(white) = 0.25

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

Interactivity: Chance (int-4026)

Digital doc: SkillSHEET Understanding ‘chance’ words (doc-6522)
Digital doc: SkillSHEET Comparing the likelihood of different events occurring (doc-6523)
Digital doc: SkillSHEET Describing the chance of an event occurring as more or less than half (doc-6524)

Exercise 10.2 The language of chance

Individual pathways

V PRACTISE V CONSOLIDATE V MASTER

Questions: Questions: Questions:
1–8, 11 1–9, 11 1–13

V V V Individual pathway interactivity: int-4362 ONLINE ONLY

To answer questions online and to receive immediate feedback and fully worked solutions for every
question, go to your learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. Note: Question numbers may vary slightly.
Understanding and fluency
1. WE1 For each of the given statements, specify whether the
chance of the following events occurring is certain, likely,
even chance, unlikely or impossible.
a. New Year’s Day will be on 1 January next year.
b. Australia will experience at least one earth tremor this year.
c. Water will boil in the fridge.
d. There will be at least one day with a maximum
temperature under 5 °C in Cairns in January.
e. A horse will win the Melbourne Cup.
f. There will be snow at Thredbo this winter.
g. You will grow 18 cm taller this year.
h. You will win first prize in Tattslotto.
i. You choose a blue ball from a bag which contains only
white balls.
j. You roll a fair die and obtain an odd number.
k. The year 2020 will be a leap year.
l. You choose a white ball from a bag which contains only white balls.
m. You roll a fair die and obtain a number greater than 6.
n. You choose a yellow ball from a bag containing 4 red balls and 4 yellow balls.
o. You roll a fair die and obtain a number less than 5.

450 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 2. Compare the given events A, B, C, D and order them from least to most likely.
a. It will be sunny in Queensland most of the time when you visit.
b. Melbourne Cup Day will be on the first Tuesday in November next year.
c. You will be the next Australian Idol.
d. Saturn will be populated next year.
3. WE2 Assign a number between and including 0 and 1 to represent the estimated probability of the
following events, depending on how likely they are.
a. You flip a coin and obtain a Tail.
b. You choose a red ball from a bag containing only 8 white balls.
c. You guess the correct answer in a multiple choice
question with 5 options.
d. You roll a die and obtain an even number on a
fair die.
e. You flip a coin and obtain a Head.
f. You guess the incorrect answer in a multiple choice
question with five options.
g. You choose a green ball from a bag containing only
four green balls.
h. You have science classes this year.
i. Australia will win the Boxing Day cricket test.
4. List five events that are:
a. impossible b. unlikely to happen
c. likely to happen d. sure to happen.
5. MC The word which has the same meaning as improbable is the word:
a. unlikely b. impossible c. uncertain d. certain e. likely
6. MC The word which has the same meaning as certain is the word:
a. definite b. possible c. likely d. probable e. unlikely
7. Match the words below with one of the numbers between 0 and 1 that are given. Choose the number
depending on what sort of chance the word means, between impossible and certain. You may use a
number more than once. If you are unsure, discuss your choice with another class member.
Numbers to choose from: 1, 0.75, 0.25, 0, 0.5.
a. Certain b. Likely c. Unlikely
d. Probable e. Improbable f. Definite
g. Impossible h. Slim chance i. Sure
j. Doubtful k. Not able to occur l. More than likely
m. Fifty-fifty n. Fair chance

Communicating, reasoning and problem solving

1
8. Explain the meaning of the probabilities 0, and 1 in a chance experiment.
2
9. Explain your answers to the following questions using the language learned in this chapter.
a. If today is Monday, what is the chance that tomorrow is Thursday?
b. If today is the 28th of the month, what is the chance for tomorrow to be the 29th?
c. If you toss a coin, what is the chance it will land Heads up?

TOPIC 10 Probability 451

10. Anthony has 10 scrabble pieces as shown. His friend Lian is blindfolded and asked to pick a piece at
random during a chance experiment. What is the chance she will pick:
a. an I b. an A c. a U d. an E?
Explain your answers.
11. ‘Fifty-fifty’ is an expression commonly used
in probability. Explain the meaning of this
expression giving its fractional value, its
A A E
decimal number form and as a percentage.
12. On 1 January two friends, Sharmela and

O A A
Marcela, were chatting with each other.
Sharmela made the comment, ‘It is very A
likely that tomorrow the temperature will

E
be around 35 °C.’ Marcela replied with the
statement, ‘It is very likely that tomorrow
it is going to snow.’ They were both E I
correct.
a. Explain how this is possible.
b. Can you think of other situations like the one described in this question?
13. Give an example of an event that is certain.

10.3 The sample space

10.3.1 The sample space
• An outcome in a chance experiment refers to any possible result of the chance experiment.
• An event can describe either one outcome (for example, rolling a 1 on a die) or a collection of outcomes
(for example, rolling an even number on a die).
• The sample space refers to the list of all possible outcomes of a chance experiment. For the chance
experiment of tossing a coin, the possible outcomes are either Heads or Tails. We write this as
S = {Heads, Tails}.
• Sometimes we don’t need to list the elements in the sample space, but the number of elements that are
in the sample space. For tossing a coin, we can say n(S) = 2.

WORKED EXAMPLE 3

A card is drawn from a standard deck. The suit of the card is then noted.
List the sample space for this chance experiment.
THINK WRITE
Although there are 52 cards in the deck we are S = { clubs, spades,
concerned only with the suit. List each of the diamonds, hearts }
four suits as the sample space for this chance
experiment.

452 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 WORKED EXAMPLE 4

A die is rolled and the number on the uppermost face is noted. How many elements are in the
sample space?
THINK WRITE
The die can show the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. n(S) = 6

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

Interactivity: The sample space (int-4027)

Exercise 10.3 The sample space

Individual pathways

VV PRACTISE VV CONSOLIDATE VV MASTER

Questions: Questions: Questions:
1–7, 9, 12 1–9, 12, 13 1–15

   Individual pathway interactivity: int-4363 ONLINE ONLY

To answer questions online and to receive immediate feedback and fully worked solutions for every
question, go to your learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. Note: Question numbers may vary slightly.
Understanding and fluency
1. WE3 A spinner with 10 equal sectors labelled 1 to 10 is spun. List the sample space.
2. For each of the following chance experiments, list the sample space.
a. A coin is tossed.
b. A multiple choice question has five alternative answers, A, B, C, D and E.
c. A soccer team plays a match and the result is noted.
d. A card is selected from the four aces in a deck.
e. An exam paper is given the grade A to F.
3. A card is selected from a standard deck. List the sample space if we are interested in:
a. the suit of the card chosen
b. the face of the card chosen
c. the colour of the card chosen.
4. A bag contains 8 red marbles, 9 green marbles and 2 orange marbles. A marble is selected from the
bag. List the sample space.
5. WE4 A coin is tossed. How many elements are in the sample space?
6. In each of the following, state the number of elements
in the sample space.
a. A card is selected from a standard deck.
b. The first ball drawn in the Tattslotto draw.
(Balls are numbered from 1 to 45.)
c. The winner of the AFL premiership. (There are
18 teams.)
d. A day of the year is selected.
e. A letter from the alphabet is selected at random.

TOPIC 10 Probability 453

 f. The first prize in the lottery is chosen from tickets numbered 1 to 180 000.
g. A term is selected from a school year.
h. You win a medal at your chosen event at the world swimming championships.
7. MC From the list below select the event that has the most elements in the sample space.
a. Selecting a card from a standard deck
b. Selecting a page at random from this book
c. Selecting an exercise book from your school bag
d. Selecting a student at random from your class
e. Selecting a page at random from the phone directory
Communicating, reasoning and problem solving
8. Explain the difference between a chance experiment, an outcome, an event and the sample space.
9. In how many different ways can change be given for a 50 cent coin using only 20 cent, 10 cent and 5
cent coins? Justify your answer.
10. Create the sample space for each of these chance experiments.
a. A spinner with four equal sectors (coloured red,
green, blue and white) is spun and a coin is
flipped.
b. A spinner with three equal sectors (coloured red,
green and blue) is spun, a coin is flipped and a
standard six-sided die is rolled.
11. Michelle studies elective music. Her assignment
this term is to compose a piece of music using as
many instruments as she chooses, but only those
that she can play. Michelle plays the acoustic
guitar, the piano, the double bass and the electric
bass. How many choices does Michelle have?
12. Alex has one brother, one sister, a mother and a father. The family owns a 5-seater car. When the
family goes out, the parents always sit in the front two seats. There are three seats behind that. How
many different seating arrangements are there?
13. If you had any number of ordinary six-sided dice, how many different ways could you roll the dice
and obtain a total of 6?
14. Are all elements in a sample space equally likely to occur?
15. Four students, Aimee, Ben, Carla and Donald, are standing in a line waiting to enter the classroom.
How many possible ways can these 4 students be arranged if Ben refuses to stand at the front of
the line?

10.4 Simple probability

10.4.1 Simple probability
•• An outcome is a particular result of a chance experiment.
•• A favourable outcome is one that we are looking for.
•• Equally likely outcomes have an equal chance of occurring.
•• The theoretical probability of a particular result or event is defined as:

number of favourable outcomes

P(event) = .
number of possible outcomes
•• The probability of an event can be expressed as a fraction, percentage or decimal.
1
•• When rolling a 4-sided die, the probability of rolling a 1 is , 25% or 0.25.
4
454 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum
WORKED EXAMPLE 5

State how many possible outcomes there are for each of the following
chance experiments and specify what they are. discuss whether the
outcome is equally likely or not equally likely to occur.
a Tossing a coin
b Spinning a circular spinner with 9 equal sectors labelled from a to i
as shown at right
c drawing a picture card (jack, king, queen) from a standard pack of cards

THINK WRITE
a 1 Make a note of how many sides the coin a The coin has 2 sides, a Head and a Tail.
has and what each side represents.
2 Answer the question. When tossing a coin there are two possible
outcomes; they are Head or Tail. These
outcomes are equally likely to occur.
b 1 Make a note of how many sectors the b The circular spinner has 9 sectors labelled
circular spinner has and what each one a to i.
represents.
2 Answer the question. When spinning the circular spinner, there are 9
possible outcomes; they are a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
or i. These outcomes are equally likely to occur.
c 1 Make a note of how many picture cards c There are 3 picture cards in each of the four
there are and what they are. suits.
2 Answer the question. When drawing a picture card there are 12
possible results; they are: the jack, king and
queen of clubs, the jack, king and queen of
diamonds, the jack, king and queen of hearts
and the jack, king and queen of spades.
There are 40 other playing cards in the pack that
could be drawn. Therefore, it is not equally
likely that a picture card will be drawn.
12
P(picture card) =
52
40
P(non-picture card) =
52

WORKED EXAMPLE 6

christopher rolls a fair 6-sided die.

a What are all the possible results that could be obtained?
b What is the probability of obtaining:
i a4
ii a number greater than 2
iii an odd number?

TOPIC 10 Probability 455

 THINK WRITE
a Write all the possible outcomes and a There are six possible outcomes; they are
answer the question. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
b     i 1 Write the number of favourable b     i Number of favourable outcomes = 1
outcomes. A 4 occurs once. Write Number of possible outcomes = 6
the number of possible outcomes.
number of favourable outcomes
2 Write the rule for probability. P(event) =
number of possible outcomes
3 Substitute the known values into 1
P(4) =
the rule and evaluate. 6
1
4 Answer the question. The probability of obtaining a 4 is .
6
  ii 1 Write the number of favourable   ii Number of favourable outcomes = 4
outcomes and the number of Number of possible outcomes = 6
possible outcomes.
Note: ‘Greater than 2’ implies
3, 4, 5, 6.
2 Substitute the known values into the 4
P(greater than 2) =
rule for probability and evaluate. 6

3 Simplify the fraction. 2

        =
3
4 Answer the question. The probability of obtaining a number greater than
2
two is .
3
iii Repeat steps 1 to 4 of part b ii. iii Number of favourable outcomes = 3
Note: ‘An odd number’ implies Number of possible outcomes = 6
1, 3, 5. 3
P(an odd number) =
6
1
=
2
1
The probability of obtaining an odd number is
2
or 50%.

ACTIVITY: DESIGNING A SPINNER

Design a spinner that has four colours: red, white, blue and yellow.
Red should be twice as likely to occur as white and three times as likely to occur as blue. Yellow should be half
as likely to occur as white.

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

Interactivity: Simple probability (int-4028)

Digital doc: SkillSHEET Listing all possible outcomes for an event (doc-6525)
Digital doc: SkillSHEET Understanding a standard deck of playing cards (doc-6526)
Digital doc: SkillSHEET Writing a simple probability as a fraction (doc-6527)

456 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

Exercise 10.4 Simple probability
Individual pathways

V PRACTISE V CONSOLIDATE V MASTER

Questions: Questions: Questions:
1–8, 13 1–10, 12, 13 1–16

V V V Individual pathway interactivity: int-4364 ONLINE ONLY

To answer questions online and to receive immediate feedback and fully worked solutions for every
question, go to your learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. Note: Question numbers may vary slightly.
Understanding and fluency
1. WE5 State how many possible outcomes there are for each of the following chance experiments and
specify what they are.
a. Rolling a 12-sided die, numbered 1 to 12 inclusive
b. Spinning a spinner for a game that has 5 equal-sized sections, numbered 1 to 5 inclusive
c. Choosing a consonant from the word cool
d. Choosing a sock out of a drawer containing 3 different socks coloured red, blue and black
e. Picking a marble out of a bag containing 5 different marbles coloured black, blue, green, red and yellow
f. Rolling an even number on a fair 6-sided die
g. Rolling an even number greater than 2 on a fair 6-sided die
h. Choosing an odd number from the first 20 counting numbers
2. List all the possible results in the following chance experiments. Comment on whether all results in
each case are equally likely. Explain your answer.
a. Rolling a fair 6-sided die
b. Tossing a normal coin
c. Spinning a spinner where half is white and half is black
d. Spinning a spinner where half is white, a quarter is blue and a quarter is red
e. Rolling a 6-sided die that has the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 on it
1 1 1
f. Shooting at a target where of the area is blue, green and red
3 3 3
g. Choosing a vowel in the word mathematics
3. WE6 Christina rolls a fair 10-sided die with faces numbered from 1 to 10.
a. What are all the possible results that could be obtained?
b. What is the probability of obtaining:
i. a 9 ii. a number less than 7
iii. a prime number iv. a number greater than 3
v. a multiple of 3 vi. a number greater than 10
vii. an even number greater than 4 viii. an odd number divisible by 3?
4. Leo has been given a bag of marbles to play with. Inside the bag there are 3 blue, 6 red, 4 green and
7 black marbles.
a. How many marbles are in the bag?
b. If Leo takes out one marble from the bag calculate:
i. P(getting a red marble)
ii. P(getting a green marble)
iii. P(getting a black marble)
iv. P(getting a blue marble)?
c. How many marbles in the bag are either blue or black?
d. Find P(getting a blue or a black marble).

TOPIC 10 Probability 457

 e. Find P(getting a green or red marble).
f. Find P(getting a green, red or blue marble).
g. Find P(getting a green, red, blue or black marble).
h. Explain your answer to part g.
5. There is a valuable prize behind 2 of the 5 doors in a TV game show. What is the probability that a
player choosing any door will win a valuable prize?
6. MC A circular spinner is shown at right. When it is spun, the probability of obtaining

an orange sector is:

4 1 1 3
a. b. C. 75% d. E.
7 7 2 7
7. MC For an octagonal spinner with equal sectors numbered 1 to 8, the chance of getting

a number between 2 and 7 is:

5 3 3
a. b. C. d. 0.5 E. 25%
8 8 4
8. A pack of playing cards is shuffled and a card is chosen at random (in no particular order or pattern).
Find the probability that the card chosen is:
a. a black card (that is, spades or clubs) b. an ace
c. a diamond d. a picture card (that is, a jack, king, queen)
e. the queen of hearts f. a diamond or a black card
g. not a king h. a club, diamond, heart or spade
i. not a spade j. red and a ten.
9. Jim operates a parachute school. Being a man who is interested in statistics, he keeps a record of the
landing position of each jump from first-time parachutists. With experience, parachutists are able to
land on a particular spot with great accuracy. However, first-time parachutists do not possess this
ability. He has marked out his landing field with squares, as shown below.
Legend
Region A =
Region B =
Region C =

We are going to look at the areas of each of the regions A, B and C. To do this, we will determine
each of the areas in terms of one of the small squares in region C. We will say that each small square
has an area of 1 square unit.
a. What is the area of Jim’s whole paddock (in square units)?
b. Determine the areas of regions A, B and C (in square units).
c. Assuming that the parachutist lands in the field, calculate the probability that the landing will occur in:
i. region A ii. region B iii. region C.
These represent theoretical probabilities.
d. Jim’s records indicate that, from 5616 jumps of first-time parachutists, the landing positions were:
i. 592 in region C ii. 1893 in region B iii. 3131 in region A.
Comment on these results in comparison with the probabilities you calculated in part c.
Communicating, reasoning and problem solving
10. a. Describe a chance experiment in which the outcomes are equally likely to occur.
b. Describe a chance experiment in which the outcome are not equally likely to occur.

458 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

11. In a raffle where there is only 1 prize (a car), 100 000 tickets
have been sold, at a cost of $5.00 each. What is the chance of
winning the prize for a buyer who:
a. purchases only 1 ticket
b. purchases 20 tickets
c. purchases 50 tickets
d. purchases all the tickets?
e. Would the buyer who buys all the tickets
have made a wise purchase? Explain.
12. a. If you had only one pair of shoes, what would be the probability that you would wear that pair of
shoes on any given day?
b. If you had two pairs of shoes, what would be the probability that you would wear a certain pair of
shoes on any given day?
c. If you had seven pairs of shoes, what would be the probability that you would wear a certain pair of
shoes on any given day?
d. If you had seven pairs of shoes but two pairs were identical, what would be the probability that you
would wear one of the two identical pairs of shoes on any given day?
e. Explain what happens to the probability when the number of pairs of shoes increases.
f. Explain what happens to the probability when the number of identical pairs of shoes increases.
13. A die is rolled 30 times, and gives the following results.
4 3 5 4 3 5 2 1 1 5
3 2 2 4 1 3 1 6 1 3
2 1 6 6 3 5 1 3 5 3
a. Display these results in a frequency table.
b. What is the probability of obtaining a 6 when you roll a die?
c. How many times would you expect to obtain a 6 in 30 rolls of a die?
d. Explain the difference between your expected results and the actual
results shown above.
14. Cory records the fact that it has rained on 65 out of 365 days in a year.
a. Write the number of days that it has rained as a simple fraction.
1
b. Karen says that since any day can be wet or dry, the probability of rain on any day is . Is Karen correct?
2
c. What is the experimental probability of rain on any given day, expressed as a decimal, correct to 2
decimal places?
15. If we know the probability of an event occurring, how can we work out the probability of it not
occurring?
16. An apple, a banana, an orange, a peach and a bunch of grapes are in May’s fruit basket. If she chooses two
places of fruit to take to school with her lunch, what is the probability that one piece of fruit is a banana?

10.5 Using a table to show sample spaces

[Going further]
10.5.1 Tables and sample spaces
• Some chance experiments have two steps or stages that give a pair of results, such as when we toss
2 coins, or toss a coin and roll a die, or roll 2 dice.
• When the result is a combined one, we usually write the outcome as an ordered pair, in brackets,
separated by a comma. The ordered pair (H, 6) would correspond to obtaining a Head on the coin and
a 6 on the die.
• The sample space of two-step chance experiments may be displayed in a two-way table.

TOPIC 10 Probability 459

 WORKED EXAMPLE 7

a Draw a two-way table and list the sample space for the chance experiment ‘tossing a coin and
rolling a die’.
b State how many different outcomes or results are possible.
c Determine the probability of obtaining:
i a Head ii a Tail and an even number
iii a 5 iv a Tail and a number greater than 2.

THINK WRITE
a 1 Rule a table consisting of 7 rows and 3 a H T
columns. Leave the first cell blank.
1 H1 T1
2 H2 T2
3 H3 T3
4 H4 T4
5 H5 T5
6 H6 T6

2 Label the second and third cells of the first

row as H and T respectively.
3 Label cells 2 to 7 of the first column as
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 respectively.
4 Combine the outcome pairs in the order in The sample space for the chance experiment
which they occur in each of the remaining ‘tossing a coin and rolling a die’ is {(H, 1), (H, 2),
cells, that is, the first event result followed (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2),
by the second event result. (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6) } .
5 Answer the question.
b Count the number of different outcomes and b There are 12 different outcomes.
answer the question.
c     i 1 Write the number of favourable c     i Number of favourable outcomes = 6
outcomes. Number of possible outcomes = 12
Write the number of possible outcomes.
Note: The favourable outcomes featuring
a Head are (H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4),
(H, 5) and (H, 6).
number of favourable outcomes
2 Write the rule for probability. P(event) =
number of possible outcomes
6
3 Substitute the known values into the P(Head) =
12
rule and evaluate.
1
4 Simplify the fraction. =
2
5 Answer the question. The probability of obtaining a Head is
1
on 50%.
2

460 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

   ii Repeat steps 1 to 5 of part c i.   ii Number of favourable outcomes = 3
Note: The favourable outcomes featuring a Number of possible outcomes = 12
Tail and an even number are (T, 2), (T, 4) number of favourable outcomes
P(event) =
and (T, 6). number of possible outcomes
3
P(Tail and even number) =
12
1
=
4
The probability of obtaining a Tail and an even
1
number is on 25%.
4
iii Repeat steps 1 to 5 of part c i. iii Number of favourable outcomes = 2
Note: The favourable outcomes featuring a Number of possible outcomes = 12
five are (H, 5) and (T, 5). number of favourable outcomes
P(event) =
number of possible outcomes
2
P(5) =
12
1
=
6
1
The probability of obtaining a five is .
6
iv Repeat steps 1 to 5 of part c i. iv Number of favourable outcomes = 4
Note: The favourable outcomes featuring a Number of possible outcomes = 12
Tail and a number greater than 2 are number of favourable outcomes
P(event) =
(T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5) and (T, 6). number of possible outcomes
4
P(Tail and number greater than 2) =
12
1
=
3
The probability of obtaining a Tail and a
1
number greater than 2 is .
3

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

Interactivity: Tables and sample spaces (int-4029)

Digital doc: WorkSHEET Probability I (doc-6540)

Exercise 10.5 Using a table to show sample spaces

Individual pathways

VV PRACTISE VV CONSOLIDATE VV MASTER

Questions: Questions: Questions:
1–8, 12 1–9, 12, 13 1–13

   Individual pathway interactivity: int-4365 ONLINE ONLY

To answer questions online and to receive immediate feedback and fully worked solutions for every
question, go to your learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. Note: Question numbers may vary slightly.

TOPIC 10 Probability 461

Understanding and fluency
1. Write down the sample space as an ordered list for each of the following simple or one-step chance
experiments:
a. rolling a 6-sided die
b. spinning a spinner which can land on any of the numbers from 1 to 10
c. choosing an item from a menu that contains fruit salad, cheesecake, mudcake and
cheese platter
d. choosing a number which is a multiple of 5 in the first 50 counting numbers
e. choosing an Australian state or territory for a holiday destination
f. picking the correct answer in a true/false question
g. choosing a king from a pack of standard cards
h. choosing an instrument from the following list: guitar, drum, saxophone, piano
and trumpet.
2. WE7 a. Draw a two-way table and list the sample space for the chance experiment ‘spinning a circular
spinner divided into 3 equal sectors labelled A, B, C and rolling a die’.
b. State the number of different outcomes or results.
c. Determine the probability of obtaining:
i. the letter A ii. the number 4
iii. a number greater than 2 iv. a number which is a multiple of 3
v. an odd number vi. the letter C and a prime number
vii. the letter A, B or C viii. any number except the number 6
ix. the letter B and a number less than 3 x. a number greater than 6.
3. a. Draw a table to show the sample space for the
chance experiment ‘tossing 2 coins at once’. (Hint:
Call the first coin ‘Coin 1’ and the other ‘Coin 2’.)
b. How many possible results are there for this chance
experiment?
c. How many times does the result (H, H) appear?
d. How many times does the result (T, T) appear?
e. How many times does a result with a Tail and a
Head in any order appear?
f. What is P(H, H) ?
g. What is P(T, T) ?
h. What is P(getting a Tail and a Head in any order)?
4. a. Draw a table to show the sample space for the chance experiment ‘tossing a 5c coin and tossing a
10c coin’.
Note: In this case order will matter.
b. How many possible results are there?
c. What is P(getting a H on the 5c coin and getting a T on the 10c coin)?
d. What is P(getting a H on the 5c coin and a H on the 10c coin)?
e. What is P(getting a T on the 5c coin and a H on the 10c coin)?
f. What is P(getting a T on the 5c coin and a T on the 10c coin)?
5. a. Draw a table to show the sample space for the chance experiment ‘tossing a coin and rolling a
10-sided die’.
b. How many possible results are there?
c. What is P(getting a H on the coin and a 6 on the die)?
d. What is P(getting a H on the coin and an even number on the die)?
e. What is P(getting either a H or a T on the coin and an even number on the die)?
f. What is P(getting a T on the coin and a number divisible by 3 on the die)?

462 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 g. What is P(getting a number less than 3)?
h. What is P(getting a number greater than 5)?
i. What is P(getting a H on the coin and a number less than 6 on the die)?
j. What is P(getting either a H or a T on the coin)?
6. a.  Draw a table to show the sample space for the chance
experiment ‘rolling a red die and a blue die’.
b. How many possible results are there?
(Note: There is a difference between a 5 on the red and a 5
on the blue die.)
c. What is P(getting 1 on both dice)?
d. What is P(getting 1 on the red die and 6 on the blue die)?
e. What is P(getting 1 on any die)?
f. What is P(getting an even number on the red die and an odd number on the blue die)?
g. What is P(getting an even number on both dice)?
h. What is P(getting an odd number on both dice)?
i. What is P(getting 2 numbers whose sum is 6)?
j. What is P(getting 2 numbers whose sum is 1)?
k. What is P(getting 2 numbers whose sum is 13)?
7. a. Draw a table to show the sample space for the following chance experiment ‘picking a marble out
of a bag containing a red, a blue and a green marble and tossing a coin’.
b. How many possible results are there?
c. What is P(picking out a green marble and getting a Head)?
d. What is P(picking out a red marble and getting a Head)?
e. What is P(picking out a blue marble and getting a Head)?
f. What is P(picking out a blue or green marble and getting a Head)?
g. What is P(picking out a blue or red marble and getting a Head)?
h. What is P(picking out a blue or red or green marble and getting a Head)?
i. How is your answer to part h related to the probability of getting a Head if you were only tossing a
coin? Can you explain why this is the case?
8. MC Two dice are rolled simultaneously. The probability of obtaining the sum of 7 (by adding the

results of the two dice being rolled simultaneously) is:

1 7 1 1
a. b. c. d. e. 0
12 36 6 4
9. For the events given below, determine the following, without listing the sample space.
i. State how many rows and columns would be needed to draw up a table representing the sample space.
ii. State the number of possible outcomes in the sample space.
a. Picking a day in January from a calendar and tossing a coin
b. Tossing a coin and shooting a dart at a board with 3 zones
c. Choosing a pencil from a set of 72 and rolling a 6-sided die
d. Rolling a 10-sided die and rolling a 6-sided die
e. Choosing a member from a class of 30 students and rolling a 6-sided die
f. Choosing a politician from a list of 100 and tossing a coin
Communicating, reasoning and problem solving
10. Within the Australian states, a common number plate system for cars is 3 numbers combined with
3 letters, e.g. ABC 123. How many more number plates does this allow each state to issue than would
be the case if the plates were simply 6 numbers (for example, 123 456)? Justify your answer.
11. Callum has a regular die and a strange die that has sides numbered 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6. If he rolls these two
dice together, what is the probability that he gets a double six? Justify your answer.

TOPIC 10 Probability 463

12. A standard domino set consists of a set of
rectangular tiles, each with a line dividing its
face into two square ends. Each end is marked
with a number of black dots (similar to those
on dice), or is blank. A standard domino set
has ends ranging from zero dots to six dots.
The back side of a domino tile is plain. How
many tiles make up a full set of dominoes?
13. Glenn remembered that his mother’s car
registration plate had 2 letters followed by
3 numbers. He could remember that the
letters were R and B and that the numbers
were 5, 1 and 4, but he couldn’t remember the order. What combination of letters and numbers could
his mother’s car registration plate have? Make a list of the possibilities.
14. When we toss 2 coins, which result (if any) is more likely: the coins match, or the coins are different?

10.6 Experimenting with chance [Going further]

10.6.1 Experimenting with chance
• The theoretical probability of a particular result or event is defined as:
number of favourable outcomes
P(event) = .
number of possible outcomes
• In real life, the chance of something occurring may be based on factors other than the number of
favourable and possible outcomes. For example, the chances of you beating your friend in a game of
1
tennis could theoretically be as you are one of 2 possible winners. In practice there are other factors
2
(like experience and skill) that would influence your chance of winning.
• A trial is one performance of an experiment to collect a result.
• A experiment is a process that allows us to collect data by performing trials. In experiments with
repeated trials, it is important to keep the conditions for each trial the same.
• A successful trial is one that results in the desired outcome.
• The experimental probability of an event is found by conducting an experiment and counting the
number of times the event occurs.
• The experimental probability of a particular result or event is defined as:
number of successful trials
P(event) = .
total number of trials

WORKED EXAMPLE 8

A coin is flipped 10 times and the results are seven Heads

and three Tails. Find the experimental probability of
obtaining a Tail.

THINK WRITE
1 Obtaining a Tail is considered a success. Each flip of number of successful trials
P(success) =
the coin is a trial. total number of trials

464 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 3
2 Tails was flipped three times, so there were three P(Tail) =
10
successful trials out of a total of 10 trials.
= 3.0

10.6.2 Experimental probability versus theoretical probability

•• The more times an experiment is performed, the closer the average of the measured results should be
to the theoretically expected answer for it.
•• The long-term trend (that is, the trend observed for results from a very large number of trials) shows
that results obtained through experimental probability will match those of theoretical probability.

WORKED EXAMPLE 9

a Copy the table below. Toss a coin 10 times and record the results in row 1 of the table.
Experiment Heads Tails
number Tally Count Tally Count
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total Total
b What is the probability of obtaining a Head from your experiment?
c What is the probability of obtaining a Tail from your experiment?
d How do these values compare with the theoretical results?
e Repeat step a another 5 times and combine all of your results.
f How does the combined result compare with the theoretical results?
THINK WRITE
a Toss a coin 10 times and record the results in a Heads Tails
the first row of the table.
Exp.No. Tally Count Tally Count
Notes: (a) Place a stroke in the appropriate tally
1 |||| 4 |||| | 6
column each time an outcome is obtained. Five
is denoted by a ‘gatepost’; that is, 4 vertical 2 |||| 4 |||| | 6
strokes and 1 diagonal stroke (||||). 3 |||| || 7 ||| 3
(b) The same coin must be used throughout the 4 ||| 3 |||| || 7
experiment. The style of the toss and the surface 5 |||| 4 |||| | 6
the coin lands on must be the same. 6 |||| ||| 8 || 2
Total 30 Total 30
number of favourable outcomes
b 1 Calculate the probability of obtaining a Head b P(event) =
number of possible outcomes
for this experiment using the rule.
number of Heads obtained
P(Heads) =
total number of tosses
4
2 Substitute the given values into the rule. P(Heads) =
10
2
3 Evaluate and simplify. =
5

TOPIC 10 Probability 465

 2 2
4 Convert the fraction to a percentage by As a percentage = × 100%
5 5
multiplying by 100%. 200
= %
5
= 40%
5 Answer the question. The probability of obtaining a Head in this
2
experiment is or 40%.
5
number of Tails obtained
c 1 Calculate the probability of obtaining a Tail c P(Tails) =
total number of tosses
for this experiment.
6
2 Substitute the given values into the rule and P(Tails) =
10
simplify. 3
=
5
3 3
3 Convert the fraction to a percentage by As a percentage = × 100%
5 5
multiplying by 100%. 300
= %
5
= 60%
The probability of obtaining a Tail in this
3
experiment is or 60%.
5
d Compare the results obtained in parts b and c d The experimental value obtained for the
with the theoretical results. 2 3
P(Heads) is (or 40%) and the P(Tails) is
5 5
(or 60%). The theoretical value of these
1
probabilities is (or 50%). Therefore, the
2
experimental probabilities differ from the
theoretical probabilities by 10%.
e 1 Repeat the procedure of part a 5 times. e Refer to the results in the table in part a.
2 Calculate the total number of Heads and Tails
obtained and enter the results in the table.
number of Heads obtained
f 1 Calculate the probability of obtaining a Head f P(Heads) =
total number of tosses
for this experiment.
30
2 Substitute the given values into the rule and P(Heads) =
60
simplify.
1
=
2
1 1
3 Convert the fraction to a percentage by As a percentage = × 100%
2 2
multiplying by 100%. 100
= %
2
= 50%
4 Answer the question. The probability of obtaining a Head in this
1
experiment is or 50%.
2

466 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 number of Tails obtained
P(Tails) =
total number of tosses
30
P(Tails) =
60
1
=
2
1 1
As a percentage = × 100%
2 2
100
= %
2
= 50%
The probability of obtaining a Tail in this
1
experiment is or 50%.
2
5 Compare the combined result obtained with The combined results in this experiment pro-
the theoretical results. duced probability values that were equal to the
theoretical probability values. Therefore, the
long-term trend of obtaining a Head or Tail when
1
tossing a coin is equal to .
2

DISCUSSION
How does the combined result from your experiment compare with the theoretical results?

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

Interactivity: Experimenting with chance (int-4030)

Interactivity: Experimental probability versus actual probability (int-4031)
Digital doc: WorkSHEET Probability II (doc-6544)

Exercise 10.6 Experimenting with chance

Individual pathways

VV PRACTISE VV CONSOLIDATE VV MASTER

Questions: Questions: Questions:
1–9, 13 1–10, 13 1–14

   Individual pathway interactivity: int-4366 ONLINE ONLY

To answer questions online and to receive immediate feedback and fully worked solutions for every
question, go to your learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. Note: Question numbers may vary slightly.

Understanding and fluency

1. WE8 Teagan was playing Trouble and recorded the number of times she rolled a 6. During the game,
she was successful 5 times out of the 25 times she tried. What was the experimental probability of
rolling a 6 in the game?

TOPIC 10 Probability 467

 2. WE9 a. Copy the table below. Toss a coin 10 times and record the results in the first row of the table.
Experiment number Heads Tails
Tally Count Tally Count
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total Total
b. What is the probability of obtaining a Head from your experiment?
c. What is the probability of obtaining a Tail from your experiment?
d. How do these values compare with the theoretical results?
e. Repeat step a another 5 times and combine all your results.
f. How does the combined result compare with the theoretical results?
3. If you wanted to create a device that would give a theoretical probability of achieving a particular
1
result as , how many sections would a spinner such as this need to be divided into?
4
4. How would you divide or colour a spinner if you wanted to achieve the probability of a success
3
equal to ?
10
5. For the spinner at right, what would be the probability of getting the red section?
6. Use your results from question 2 to answer the following.
a. The long-term trend of the probability of obtaining a Head on the toss of a coin is the
P(Heads) from your experiment.
What is the long-term trend of the probability after:
i. 10 tosses of the coin ii. 20 tosses of the coin
iii. 30 tosses of the coin iv. 60 tosses of the coin?
b. Obtain a classmate’s 60 results. Combine these with yours. State the long-term trend of P(Heads)
obtained.
c. Combine your pair’s 120 results with another pair’s. State the long-term trend of P(Heads) obtained.
d. Finally, count the results obtained by the whole class for this experiment. (Make sure nobody’s
results are counted twice.) You should have 60 tosses per person. State the long term trend of
P(Heads) obtained.
e. Copy and complete the table below.

Heads Tails
P(Heads) as P(Tails) as
Number of tosses P(Heads) percentage P(Tails) percentage
10
20
30
60
120
240
Whole class (specify
number of tosses)

f. Comment on the changes of the long-term trend value of P(Heads) as you toss the coin more times.

468 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 7. Create a spinner with 5 colours of equal size.
a. What is the chance of getting any one of the 5 colours when you spin the spinner (theoretically)?
b. Spin the spinner 10 times and, using a table such as the one below, record your results.

colour 1 2 3 4 5
Number of
times it occurs

c. From your results, list the probabilities of obtaining each colour. For example, divide the number of
times a particular colour was obtained by the total number of spins (that is, 10).
d. Why might these probabilities not be the same as the theoretical probability would suggest?
e. Spin your spinner and record the results for another 10 spins.
f. Spin your spinner so that you have 100 results. Is the experimental probability closer to the pure
probability? Why might this be? Discuss.
8. Inside a bag are 36 shapes which are either squares or triangles. One shape is taken out at random, its
shape noted and put back in the bag. After this is repeated 72 times, it is found that a triangle was
taken out 24 times. Estimate how many triangles and how many squares there are in the bag.

Communicating, reasoning and problem solving

9. You have calculated previously that the chance of getting any particular number on
1
a 6-sided die is . You have 2 different coloured dice. Is there any difference in
6
your dice apart from colour? Could one be biased (more likely to give a particular
result than theory says it should)?
a. Design a test to determine whether the dice you have are fair. Write down what
you are going to do.
b. Perform your test, and record your results.
c. Calculate the probability of getting each of the numbers on each of your dice,
based on your tests and on the long-term trend you have observed.
d. What does your test say about your 2 dice? Are there any things that need to be
considered before giving your answer? (Perhaps your dice have slightly uneven
shapes or something that might cause them to lean towards one result more than
others.)
10. In your desk drawer, there are 5 identical red pens and 6 identical black pens. What is the smallest
number of pens you have to remove from the drawer in the dark so that you will be absolutely sure of
having:
a. 2 black pens
b. 2 red pens
c. 1 black pen and 1 red pen?
d. Explain your answers to parts a, b and c.
11. a. Conduct the following experiments:
i. Toss a coin 10 times and record the number of heads and tails that occur.
ii. Toss a coin 25 times and record the number of heads and tails that occur.
iii. Toss a coin 50 times and record the number of heads and tails that occur.
iv. Toss a coin 100 times and record the number of heads and tails that occur.
b. Calculate the experimental probability for each experiment.
c. Compare these values and explain your findings.
12. How is the experimental probability of an event related to its theoretical probability?

TOPIC 10 Probability 469

10.7 Review
Investigation | Rich task
Snakes, ladders and probability!

In the game of snakes and ladders you roll 2 dice, add the 2 numbers that appear on the uppermost
faces and move a marker that many places around a 100-square board. If you are lucky and your
marker lands on the base of a ladder, you can advance more quickly in the game by ‘climbing’ to
the top of the ladder. However, if your marker lands on the head of a snake, you must ‘slide down’
the snake to the end of its tail.
1. Complete the table below to show the possible totals when 2 dice are rolled. Some of the values
have been included for you.
2. List the sample space for the possible totals when 2 dice are rolled.
3. Which total appears the most?
4. Which total appears the least?
5. What is the probability of getting a total of 3 when 2 dice are rolled?

470 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

 Using the table that shows the frequency of the totals, Die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
we can investigate the probabilities involved in moving
around the snakes and ladders board. The following 1 2 3 4
situations will enable you to investigate some of the
possibilities that occur in snakes and ladders. 2
3 4 5
6. Imagine you landed on square 95 and slid down
the snake to square 75. What total would you need 3
4

Die 2
to go up the ladder at square 80 on your next
move? In how many ways can this total be 4
achieved in one turn?
7. If you slid down the snake at square 87, is it 5
possible to move up the next ladder with your next
turn? Explain. 6
8. Explain what would happen if you were on square
89 and rolled two 1s and rolled two 1s again with your next turn. What would be the likelihood
of this happening in a game?
9. Describe how you could get from square 71 to square 78 in one turn. Work out the probability of
this happening.
10. Imagine you had a streak of luck and had just climbed a ladder to square 91. Your opponent is
on square 89. Explain which player has the greater chance of sliding down the snake at square
95 during the next turn.
11. Investigate the different paths that are possible in getting from start to finish in the fewest turns. For
each case, explain the totals required at each turn and discuss the probability of obtaining these totals.
Play a game of snakes and ladders with a partner. Examine your possibilities after each turn, and
discuss with each other the likelihood of moving up ladders and keeping away from the snakes’
heads as you both move around the board.

RESOURCES — ONLINE ONLY

Digital doc: Investigation — Snakes, ladders and probability! (doc-14328)

Digital doc: Code puzzle — In 1874 Davis and Strauss made the first … (doc-14329)
Digital doc: Summary Topic 10 (doc-23221)
Interactivity: Crossword Topic 10 (int-2596)
Interactivity: Word search Topic 10 (int-2595)
Interactivity: Sudoku Topic 10 (int-3171)

Exercise 10.7 Review questions

To answer questions online and to receive immediate feedback and fully worked solutions for every
question, go to your learnON title at www.jacplus.com.au. Note: Question numbers may vary slightly.
Understanding and fluency
1. For each of the given statements, specify whether the chance of the following events occurring is
certain, likely, even chance, unlikely or impossible.
a. Australia is in the southern hemisphere.
b. You will still be alive in the next century.
c. Obtaining an even number on a circular spinner numbered from 1 to 16.
d. England is in the southern hemisphere.

TOPIC 10 Probability 471

 e. You roll a fair die and obtain a number less than or equal to 4.
f. Humans can survive without water indefinitely.
2. List three events where the chance of each occurring would be:
a. impossible b. certain c. improbable.
3. Copy the number line below and place the list of words on it to indicate what sort of chance each
number would represent.
Words to place: certain, very unlikely, unlikely, likely, highly likely, highly unlikely, even chance,
impossible, very likely.
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

4. List the sample space for the following chance experiments:

a. tossing a coin
b. drawing a marble out of a bag containing red, green and blue marbles
c. rolling a 6-sided die
d. spinning a circular spinner numbered from 1 to 10
e. drawing a 4 card from a pack of playing cards
f. answering a true/false question in a test
g. competing in a race in which there are 9 runners
h. choosing a year level to represent the secondary school at a public event.
5. For each of the following, state the number of elements in the sample space.
a. The first prize in a raffle is chosen from tickets numbered from 1 to 5000.
b. A card selected from the red cards in a standard deck.
c. A circular spinner numbered 1 to 5 is spun.
d. A day is selected in the month of July.
6. A six-sided die, labelled 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5 is rolled. Find:
a. P(getting a 5) b. P(getting a 3)
c. P(getting an even number) d. P(getting an odd number)
e. P(getting a number greater than or equal to 3) f. P(getting a number less than 3)
g. P(getting a 0) h. P(getting a 6).
7. A person has a normal pack of cards and draws one out. Find:
a. P(picking a heart) b. P(picking a spade) c. P(picking a picture card)
d. P(picking a card with a number less than 5 on it). Do not count an ace as a number.
8. Ten cards are numbered from 1 to 10, shuffled and placed face down on a table. If a card is selected at
random, find the probability that the card selected is:
a. 4 b. an even number
c. divisible by 3 d. an even number and divisible by 3
e. an even number or divisible by 3 f. not divisible by 3
g. greater than 8 h. 12.
9. Use a table to show the sample space for the chance experiment ‘tossing a coin and rolling a die’. Find:
a. P(a tail and a number less than 3) b. P(a head and a number greater than 3)
c. P(a tail and an even number) d. P(a head and a prime number).
10. Use a table to show the sample space for the chance experiment ‘spinning a spinner with 10 sectors
and rolling a die’. Find:
a. P(the sum totals to an even number)
b. P(odd number on the spinner and an even number on the die)
c. P(both digits having a value less than 5)
d. P(the sum totals to a value between 7 and 10)
e. P(the sum totals to a value greater than or equal to 13 but less than 16)
f. P(the sum totals to a prime number).

472 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

11. A sample of 250 students at a particular school found that 225 of them had access to the internet at
home. Given this sample is a good representation for the entire school, what is the probability that a
student selected at random in the school will have internet access at home?
12. Jane and her father have decided to play a game of chess against each other. Neither has played before
but each has been given the same explanation of the rules of the game.
a. What would be the probability of either of them winning a game?
b. Explain your answer.
Since her first game with her father, Jane has joined a chess club and competes regularly against
various players. Her father, on the other hand, plays occasionally. Over a number of years Jane and
her father have played 340 games. Jane has won 255 of these games.
c. Given this long-term trend, what would be the probability that the father wins the next game?
d. Does the probability remain the same over a period of time? Explain your answer.

Communicating, reasoning and problem solving

13. In your sock drawer there are only 4 identical blue socks and 5 identical black socks. What is the
smallest number of socks you can remove from the drawer in the dark so that you will be absolutely sure
of having:
a. a pair of black socks
b. a pair of blue socks
c. a black pair and a blue pair of socks?
14. The arrows on Spinner A and Spinner B are spun. (If an arrow lands on a
line, the spinner is spun again.) The two numbers are added to get a score. 4 6 6 2
For example, in the diagram at right, the score is 10.
2
a. What is the highest total score possible? 4
b. What are the possible total scores? Spinner A Spinner B
c. List all the ways to get a total score of 8.
d. What is the probability of getting a total of 9?
e. What is the probability of getting a total score of 10?
f. Draw a grid showing the probabilities of getting all possible totals.
15. Mark and Cameron play a game in which they toss two coins. Mark wins if two Heads turn up, and
Cameron wins if two Tails turn up. If both a Head and a Tail turn up, they throw one of the coins
again. If this coin comes up Heads, Mark wins; if it comes up Tails, Cameron wins. Do you think this
is a fair game? Discuss with a classmate and explain your reasoning.

TOPIC 10 Probability 473

16. Charlotte and Rhianna have a flower garden. They have 17 red flowers, 12 pink flowers and 13 yellow
flowers. Charlotte picks some flowers for her vase. She selects 6 red flowers, 3 pink and 3 yellow
flowers. If Rhianna picks a flower at random for her hair, what is the probability that it is yellow?

17. A bowl contains blue marbles and white marbles. If there are twice as many blue marbles as white
marbles, what is the probability that a blue marble is selected?
18. Mrs Prince gives Charles 2 containers, 10 green marbles and 10 gold marbles. She tells him to arrange
the marbles any way he likes (all of the marbles must go into the containers). She chooses 1 marble
from 1 container. If she picks a gold one, she’ll give Charles $100. How should Charles arrange the
marbles to have the best chance of getting $100?
19. Consider the following game. You have a
board (see diagram), a token to move and a Square 1 Square 2 Square 3 Square 4 Square 5 Square 6
fair coin to flip. Each turn consists of the
following two steps.
1. Flip the coin.
2. Move two squares to the right for Heads,
and one square to the right for Tails.
What is the probability that you will land on Square 5 in exactly three turns?
20. You have a spinner. Draw a circle graph to represent the following.
Discuss the chances of landing on each of the colours. List the likelihoods from smallest to largest.
Colour Degree
Red 20°
Orange 40°
Yellow 60°
Blue 100°
Green 20°
Purple 120°
21. Chloë is a contestant on a game show. There are five sealed cases on the podium and each of the cases
contains one of the following amounts: $1, $50, $500, $1000 and $5000. The game-show host offers
her a deal of $400, or she can choose a case and keep the amount of money in it, instead. What is the
probability she will win more than the $400 the host is offering?
22. To ‘get out of jail’ when playing a board game, the player must throw a double from two dice that are
rolled three times. What is the probability of getting at least one double in these three throws?
23. Rebecca plays a sideshow game where she puts four balls into a clown’s mouth, and the balls then fall
into slots numbered 1 to 6. To win, one of her balls must go into Slot 6. She has noticed that the
numbers 2 and 5 come up 4 times as often as 1 and 6, and the numbers 3 and 4 come up 5 times as
often as 1 and 6. What is the probability that she will get a 6?
474 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum
Answers
Topic 10 Probability
Exercise 10.2 The language of chance
1. a. Certain b. Likely c. Impossible d. Impossible e. Certain
f. Likely g. Unlikely h. Unlikely i. Impossible j. Even chance
k. Certain l. Certain m. Impossible n. Even chance o. Likely
2. D, C, A, B
1 1 1 1
3. a. (or 0.5) b. 0 c. (or 0.2) d. (or 0.5) e. (or 0.5)
2 5 2 2
4
f. (or 0.8) g. 1 h. 1
5
i. 0.3–0.7. Any value within this range is reasonable. Discuss.
4. Class discussion or check with your teacher.
5. A
6. A
7. a. 1 b. 0.75 c. 0.25 d. 0.75 e. 0.25
f. 1 g. 0 h. 0.25 i. 1 j. 0.25
k. 0 l. 0.75 m. 0.5 n. 0.5
1
8. The probability 0 means that the event is impossible. The probability means that there is an equal chance of the event not
2
occurring and occurring. The probability 1 means that the event is certain.
9. a. It is impossible because Tuesday always follows Monday.
b. It is certain because the 29th always follows the 28th day of the month. However, if the month is February, depending on
whether the year is a leap year or not, the chance is either impossible or certain.
c. It has an equal chance or a fifty-fifty chance if it is a coin with a Head on one side and a Tail on the other side.
1
10. a. Highly unlikely because there is only one piece with the letter I. The chance is or 0.1.
10
b. Equal chance because there are five pieces with the letter A and five pieces with other vowels.
c. Impossible because there are no pieces with the letter U.
3
d. Unlikely because the chance is or 0.3.
1 10
11. Equal chance: 50% or or 0.5.
2
12. a. The two girls are living in two different countries; one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere.
b. Time zones in different places, night time and day time in different places in the world.
13. Answers will vary. A certain event must happen.
Exercise 10.3 The sample space
1. S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 }
2. a. S = { Heads, Tails } b. S = { A, B, C, D, E }
c. S = { win, loss, draw } d. S = { ace of clubs, ace of spades, ace of hearts, ace of diamonds }
e. S = { A, B, C, D, E, F }
3. a. S = { clubs, spades, diamonds, hearts } b. S = { ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, king }
c. S = { red, black }
4. S = { red, green, orange }
5. 2
6. a. 52 b. 45 c. 18 d. 365 (or 366 in a leap year)
e. 26 f. 180 000 g. 4 h. 3
7. E
8. A chance experiment is an experiment in which the outcome is left to chance. An outcome is any possible result of the chance
experiment. An event can describe either one outcome or a collection of outcomes. The sample space is a list of all possible
outcomes.
9. 12 different ways:
20, 20, 10; 20, 20, 5, 5; 20, 10, 10, 10;

TOPIC 10 Probability 475

 20, 10, 10, 5, 5; 20, 10, 5, 5, 5, 5; 20, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5;
10, 10, 10, 10, 10; 10, 10, 10, 10, 5, 5;
10, 10, 10, 5, 5, 5, 5; 10, 10, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5;
10, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5; 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5

10. a. {rH, rT, bH, bT, rH5, rH6, gH, gT, wH, wT}
b. {rH1, rH2, rH3, rH4, rH5, rH6, rT1, rT2, rT3, rT4, rT5, rT6, gH1, gH2, gH3, gH4, gH5, gH6,
gT1, gT2, gT3, gT4, gT5, gT6, bH1, bH2, bH3, bH4, bH5, bH6, bT1, bT2, bT3, bT4, bT5, bT6}
11. 15 choices
12. 12
13. 11
14. It depends on whether each element has an equal chance of occurring. In the sample space for rolling a die, each
element is equally likely to occur. In more complex experiments, each event may not be likely to occur.
15. 18 ways

Exercise 10.4 Simple probability

1. a. 12: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 b. 5: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
c. 2: C, L d. 3: red, blue, black
e. 5: black, blue, green, red, yellow f. 3: 2, 4, 6
g. 2: 4, 6 h. 10: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19
2. a. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. All equally likely. b. Heads, Tails. Each is equally likely. c. White, black. Each is equally likely.
d. White, blue, red. It is more likely you will get white rather than red or blue, because white takes up a bigger area.
e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. It is more likely that a five will be rolled because it appears twice on the die.
f. Blue, green, red. Each is equally likely.
g. a, e, i. It is more likely that a consonant would be obtained as there are 7 consonants and 4 vowels.
3. a. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
1 3 2 7 3 3 1
b. i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. 0 vii. viii.
10 5 5 10 10 10 5
4. a. 20
3 1 7 3
b. i. ii. iii. iv.
10 5 20 20
1 1 13
c. 10 d. e. f. g. 1
2 2 20
h. When the probability of a particular result is certain (in this case, that the marble must be either blue, red, green or black),
it equals 1.
2
5.
5
6. E
7. D
1 1 1 3 1
8. a. b. c. d. e.
2 13 4 13 52
3 12 3 1
f. g. h. 1 i. j.
4 13 4 26
9. a. 36 square units
b. A 20 square units
B 
12 square units
C  4 square units
5 1 1
c. i. ii. iii.
9 3 9
37
d. i. , which is approx. 0.11. This is very close to the theoretical probability.
351
631
ii. , which is approx. 0.34. This is very close to the theoretical probability.
1872
3131
iii. , which is approx. 0.56. This is very close to the theoretical probability.
5616

476 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

10. a. Answers will vary. An example would be rolling a six-sided die.
b. Answers will vary. An example would be rolling a die with the sides 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4.
1 1 1
11. a. b. c. d. 1
100 000 5000 2000
e. It would not be a very wise purchase because the total cost would be $500 000 unless of course the car was worth more
than $500 000.
1 2
12. a. 100% b. 50% c. d. e. Decrease f. Increase
7 7
13. a.
Score Frequency
1 7
2 4
3 8
4 3
5 5
6 3

1
b. P(6) = c. 5
6
d. The result differs by pure chance. The more often we roll the die the closer we can expect the results to match the expected
number of sixes.
13
14. a.
73
b. Karen is not correct, as a wet day (65 out of 365) and a dry day (300 out of 365) are not equally likely.
c. 0.18
15. An event must either occur or not occur, there is no other option. So if we know the probability of an event occurring, the
probability it will not occur is 1 − P(event).
2
16. The probability of taking a banana is .
5
Exercise 10.5 Using a table to show sample spaces
1. a. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
b. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 }
c. { fruit salad, cheesecake, mudcake, cheese platter }
d. { 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 }
e. { Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Northern Territory, South Australia,
Tasmania, Western Australia, Australian Capital Territory }
e. true, false }
{
f. {king of hearts, king of diamonds, king of spades, king of clubs}
g. {guitar, drum, saxophone, piano, trumpet}
2. a. Spinner
A B C
1 A1 B1 C1
2 A2 B2 C2
3 A3 B3 C3
Die
4 A4 B4 C4
5 A5 B5 C5
6 A6 B6 C6
{ (A, 1), (A, 2), (A, 3), (A, 4), (A, 5), (A, 6), (B, 1), (B, 2), (B, 3), (B, 4), (B, 5), (B, 6), (C, 1), (C, 2), (C, 3), (C, 4), (C, 5),
(C, 6) }
b. 18
1 1 2 1 1 1 5 1
c. i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. 1 viii. ix. x. 0
3 6 3 3 2 6 6 9

TOPIC 10 Probability 477

3. a. Coin 1
Head Tail
Head HH TH
Coin 2
Tail HT TT
1 1 1
b. 4 c. 1 d. 1 e. 2 f. g. h.
4 4 2
4. a. 5c Coin
Head Tail
Head HH TH
10c Coin
Tail HT TT
1 1 1 1
b. 4 c. d. e. f.
4 4 4 4
5. a.
Coin
Head Tail
l H1 T1
2 H2 T2
3 H3 T3
4 H4 T4
5 H5 T5
Die
6 H6 T6
7 H7 T7
8 H8 T8
9 H9 T9
10 H 10 T 10
1 1 1 3
b. 20 c. d. e. f.
20 4 2 20
1 1 1
g. h. i. j. 1
5 2 4
6. a.
Red die
1 2 3 4 5 6
l l 2 3 4 51 61
2 l 2 3 4 52 62
3 l 2 3 4 53 63
Blue die
4 l 2 3 4 54 64
5 l 2 3 4 55 65
6 l 2 3 4 56 66
Note: Your table may list the blue die along the top and therefore it would be listed first.
1 1 11 1
b. 36 c. d. e. f.
36 36 36 4
1 1 5
g. h. i. j. 0 k. 0
4 4 36
7. a.
Marble colour
Red Blue Green
Head RH BH GH
Coin
Tail RT BH GH
1 1 1 1 1 1
b. 6 c. d. e. f. g. h.
6 6 6 3 3 2
1
i. The probability of picking out a red, blue or green marble and getting a Head = , which is the same as the result you get
2
if you were just to toss a coin. This is because you must get one of these colour marbles, so the only choice in the chance
1
experiment here is whether you get a Tail or a Head, so P(Head) = .
2

478 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

8. C
9. Note: You may have chosen the opposite number for rows and columns. This is also correct.
a. i. 31 rows, 2 columns ii. 62
b. i. 2 rows, 3 columns ii. 6
c. i. 72 rows, 6 columns ii. 432
d. i. 10 rows, 6 columns ii. 60
e. i. 30 rows, 6 columns ii. 180
f. i. 100 rows, 2 columns ii. 200
10. 16 576 000
1
11.
18
12. 28 dominoes
13. RB145, RB154, RB415, RB451, RB514, RB541, BR145, BR154, BR415, BR451, BR514, BR541
14. The possible outcomes are HH, TT, HT and TH, so it is equally likely that the coins match or the coins are different.

Exercise 10.6 Experimenting with chance

1
1.
5
2. a.
Heads Tails
Exp. No. Tally Count Tally Count
l |||| 4 |||| | 6
2 | l |||| |||| 9
3 |||| | 6 |||| 4
4 |||| ||| 8 || 2
5 |||| 4 |||| | 6
6 |||| || 7 ||| 3
Total 30 Total 30
Note: This is only one possible solution. Answers will differ each time.
2 3
b. (40%) c. (60%)
5 5
1
d. The theoretical value for both results is (50%). They differ by 10%.
2
e. Refer to table.
f. The combined result equals the theoretical value.
3. 4
4. Divide the spinner into 10 sections; 3 of these sections will be shaded in 1 colour and 7 sections will be shaded in another colour.
3
5.
8
6. Values will differ for each group. As you complete more trials, you will probably notice the values you get experimentally are

(2 )
1
closer to those you would expect from theoretical probability or 50% . If this is not occurring, though, you will probably
need more trials.
1
7. a.
5
b. Colour l 2 3 4 5
Number of times it occurs || || |||| ||
1 1 2 1
c. P(1) = 0 P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) =
5 5 5 5
Note: This is the only possible solution. Answers will differ each time.
d. Your spinner may not be evenly balanced and this may lead to an increased likelihood of getting one result or another.

TOPIC 10 Probability 479

 e–f. Values will differ for each group. As you complete more trials, you will probably notice the values you get

(5 )
1
experimentally are closer to those you would expect from theoretical probability or 20% . If this is not occurring,
though, you will probably need more trials.
8. 12 triangles, 24 squares
9. a. Each die would need to be thrown about 120 times to get some impression of whether it is biased or not. The same person
would need to roll the die each time in the same manner and onto the same surface.
b. Number on die Green Red
l 20 19
2 19 21
3 20 20
4 21 20
5 19 20
6 21 20
Total 120 120
Note: These values will differ each time the experiment is conducted.
c.
Number on die Probability of black Probability of white
20 1 19
l =
120 6 120
19 21 7
2 =
120 120 40
20 1 20 1
3 = =
120 6 120 6
21 7 20 1
4 = =
120 40 120 6
19 20 1
5 =
120 120 6
21 7 20 1
6 = =
120 40 120 6
Total l l
1
The long-term trend suggests that the probability of obtaining each value on either dice will be .
6
d. The 2 dice appear to be fair as each value occurred approximately 20 times, which is what we would expect in 120 throws.
More trials however could be conducted. It is very important when conducting an experiment such as this that the devices
used are even in shape and size and that one doesn’t have an advantage over the other.
10. a. 7 b. 8 c. 7
d. There are 5 red pens so, to make sure that you pick 2 black pens, you have to pick 5 + 2 = 7.
There are 6 black pens so, to make sure that you pick 2 red pens, you have to pick 6 + 2 = 8.
There are 5 red pens and 6 black pens so, to make sure that you pick 1 black pen and 1 red pen, you have to pick 6 + 1 = 7.
11. Various answers are possible depending on the results of the experiment.
12. Theoretical probability is determined by predicting outcomes rather than by gathering data, while experimental probability is
determined by gathering data. As more data is gathered, the long-term trend of the experimental probability data results
should approach the theoretical probability.
Investigation | Rich task
1. Die 1
l 2 3 4 5 6
l 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Die 2
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

480 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum

2. { 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 }
3. 7
4. 2, 12
1
5.
18
6. 5, four different ways.
7. You end up at square 36. The next ladder is at square 51. It is not possible to obtain a 15 when you roll 2 dice.
1
8. At the end of these two turns you would end up at square 73. P(two ones in a row) = .
1296
1
9. You need to roll a total of 7. P(7) = .
6
10. Your opponent has a better chance, because the chance of scoring a 6 is higher than that of scoring a 4.
11. There are many different paths that get from start to finish in 5 turns.
Exercise 10.7 Review questions
1. a. Certain b. Unlikely c. Even chance d. Impossible e. Likely f. Impossible
2. Discuss in class.
Highly unlikely

3.
Very unlikely

Highly likely
Even chance

Very likely
Impossible

Unlikely

Certain
Likely

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
4. a. { Head, Tail }
b. { red marble, green marble, blue marble }
c. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
d. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 }
e. { 4 of clubs, 4 of diamonds, 4 of hearts, 4 of spades }
f. { true, false }
g. { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 }
h. { Year 7, Year 8, Year 9, Year 10, Year 11, Year 12 }
5. a. 5000 b. 26 c. 5 d. 31
1 1 1 2 2
6. a. b. c. d. e.
6 3 3 3 3
1
f. g. 0 h. 0
3
1 1 3 3
7. a. b. c. d.
4 4 13 13
1 1 3 1 7
8. a. b. c. d. e.
10 2 10 10 10
7 1
f. g. h. 0
10 5
9. Coin
Head Tail
1 H1 T1
2 H2 T2
3 H3 T3
Die
4 H4 T4
5 H5 T5
6 H6 T6
1 1 1 1
a. b. c. d.
6 4 4 4

TOPIC 10 Probability 481

10. Spinner
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Die
4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 1 4 2 3 23
a. b. c. d. e. f.
2 4 15 5 20 60
9
11.
10
1
12. a.
2
b. Since both opponents have not played chess before and are given the same instructions on the rules of the game, it is safe
to say they will be evenly matched. Neither has an advantage over the other.
1
c.
4
d. No, the probabilities are not the same; they have changed because Jane has practised and developed skills while her father
has not.
13. a. 6 socks. Worst case scenario is first picking 4 blue socks, then 2 black socks.
b. 7 socks. Worst case scenario is first picking 5 black socks then 2 blue socks.
c. 7 socks. Minimum needed to guarantee a pair of black socks is 6 (from part a). Picking one more guarantees a pair of blue
socks will be included (from part b).
2
14. a. 12 b. 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 c. 2 + 6, 6 + 2, 4 + 4 d. 0 e.
9
f. Spinner A
2 4 6
2 4 6 8
Spinner B 4 6 8 10
6 8 10 12

Total
4 6 8 10 12
1 2 3 2 1
9 9 9 9 9
15. Yes
1
16.
3
2
17.
3
18. If one container has one gold marble, if that container is selected, Charles is certain to receive $100. This leaves 9 gold
9
marbles and 10 green marbles in the second container. The probability that the gold is selected from this container is .
1 1 9 14 19
The overall probability that Charles will receive $100: × 1 + × =
3 2 2 19 19
19.
8
20. Red, green, orange, yellow, blue, purple
3
21.
5
91
22.
216
1
23.
20

482 Maths Quest 7 Stage 4 NSW Australian curriculum