p10 Probability

cHAPTERI
M are the chances?
1:What
Worksheet
for
oanexample
that has 100%
Write chance of happening
anevent tomguau.

that has 0% chance of happening:

an event

that has afiftyffty chance of happening:

an event

eents. Classify themin the table below.

thes
LOok at

C:Cyrus spins
a composite
immediately
B: Tim falls asleep number.
a red ball
after a long day in school.
A: Ada picks
from the bag.

1 3
2 4 6
the
E:Ada picks a card
with
in
can be emptied
E: The river
out bowls number 1 at random.
a prime number scooping
Vera
D: rolls
6-sided die.
a weekby
on a fair of water.

More than 50%chance

Exactly 50% chance
than 50% chance
Less
B,C.
A,E,F
of events.
I candescribepfobability

Probability 187
 Worksheet 2: Are they mutually exclusive?

exclusive,
Tick the pairs of events that are mutually

Gettinga head anda tail in a coin toss.

Rolling a number that is even andI prime on a 6-sided fair

die.

MRoling number thatisodd and more than 5on a 6-sidec

a fo

Eating toast for breakfast and pasta for dinner.

Vera goes to schoolon weekdaysand goes to the librany

on weekends.
Kcyrus wis a soccer match and loses a soccer match.

Ada hagadeck of 52 playing cards.

2 3 4 5 7 10 11 12 13

2 3 5 7 10 11 12 13

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13

1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Tick the statements that are true.

tisequally likelyó pick eachshape.

There is a fifty-fifty chance of picking a star shape.

The probábility of picking the number lis

MThe pfobability of picking the number 1 is

The probability of picking the number l is

188
4 Chapter 10
 isthe card that contains a prime
probability of picking a

thatis also an evennumber? Use the Venn diagram to

What
number Then, answer the questions thatfollow.
you.
help

Primenumber Even nurmber

3 4
6
2 8

13 12

picking a card that is an even prime number is

The protbability of

CTE
the protbabilityis
high (low fifty-fifty.In fractions,

she tries picking a card 52times, she will

e era thinks that if
number 4times!
definitely get an even prime

says?Why or why not?

withwhat Vera
Doyou agree

andan even numbermutually Yes/No

aprime number
Ispicking
exclusive?
mutually
a 2-digit number (Yes)No
Ispicking a1-digit numberand
exclusive?
and a2-digit
a 1-digitnumber
of picking %.
So,the probability is )
the same time
numberat

events that
are mutually exclusive.
I can identify

Probability 189
 expected?
3:Was itas
osorkboog Worksheet
fishing
line to pick up a fish one
uses a magnetic
atoythat
Vera has
a
at time.

Birk-9

gettingafish of
each colour
of
Describethe probability
up.
q out of_ 45chance =20
is picked
A yellow fish

up.
9 out of_45.chance =20
A blue fish is picked

out ofchance =_2 o,

An orange fishis picked up.
g odtof 4 chance=20
A green fish is picked up.

pink fish is picked up.

A
9 out of 45 chance=0%
fish to
any of the coloured
We expect the probability of picking
be equally likely)/not equally likely.

Each time
without looking.
starts picking upafish randomly
in the pond.She records
the
she picks up a fish, she puts it back
time in thetable below.
colour of the fish she pickS up each

Colourof fish Frequency

Yellow 7

Blue 11

Orange 13

Green

Pink

190 Chapter 10
 How many timesdid Vera try to catch g fish?O0

Basedon her trials, what is the probability of Vera catching a

yellow fish? +out of 50 chance

We write this probability infoctions as, t6 and in

percentages as 4 %.

Is the probability we calculated in the same asour expected

probability of catching ayellow fish? Fill in the blanks and
explain your answer.

The actual probability of Vera pickingunafshis ess thun

the expected probability.

Veracontinues playing the game to pick up more fish. She

records her additional new results in the frequency table below.

Colourof fish Frequency

Yellow 103
Blue 76

Orange 87
Green 97
Pink 87

Add upall the fish caught by Vera. Then, fill in the frequency

table to record all the fish Vera has picked up so far.

Colour of fish Frequency

Yellow

Blue
116
Orange I00
Green 106
Pink

How many timesd Vera try to catch afish in total?

460
Probability 191
 whattisthe probability of

of trials,

thetotal
number loOutof 466chance
Based on
ayellow fish? and in
Vera catching as
in fractions
probability
Wewrite this
as239%. asour
percentages m thesame
fish? Circle and
probability
we
calculategi
a yelow
fill

Is the of catching
probability
expected
blank.
in the fish is the Same
upa as

of Vera picking
probability
The actual expected probability.
from the
different
in iscloserto/

However, the probability

calculated

expected probability
of23 %.

fromthe
furtheraway number of trials
is probably because a smallerlarger
This
to the expectedorobability.
shows results closer

cards.
2 Tim has some animal

Chapter 10
 What the expected
is

probability of
Type of AnimalCard pckingeach type of animal card?
Numberof cords
Deer Probability ofpicking t
Bee out of G chance
Bird 2 out of 6 chance

Dragonfly
6 out of b0chance
Fish out of 50chance
16 out of 50chance
Dolphin

Elephant
3 3 out of 56 chance
outof 50 chance
Tim wants to test the
probdbility of picking
each type of card.
He recordshis
results ina frequency table for a totalof
50O trials.
Animal card
Frequency
Deer 38
Bee 115

Bird
65
Dragonfly 78
Fish
103

Dolphin 35

Elephant 66

From Tim's results,what is the probability of picking a Bee card?

Probability of picking Bee card =
a |15aof 500
Wewrite this probability in fractions es S00 and in percentages
as 2 %.

Is the probability we calculated in the sameas theexpected

probability of picking a Bee card? Fillin the blank and circle.

Expected probability of picking a Bee card = 20 %

The actualprobablity of Tim picking aBee cardisthe same as
different from the expected probability

Probability 193
 of Tim picking
aBeecard
card isclose
5,far
probability from
The gctual
probability.
theexpected
asmalD/large
large number of
trials
because shows,
This isprobably
expected probability
results closer to the

What about the probability

cards in Tim's
of the other animal
close to the expected
trial? Are they
probability too? Show your working
on a piece ofpaper.

for the average amoLn

The bar chart shows the weather data (UK).
20years in the United Kingdom
rainfallfor the past
millimetres)
UK in 2001-2020 (in
Average rainfallin the

2500

2000

(rnm) 1500

1000
Rainfall
500

2018
2004 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
2002002
2003 Year

From the graph,we see that the averagerainfall

is

more than 1500mm for 7_out of. Do ysdrs.

between 1000 mm and 1500 mm for 3 20_years.

1000 mm
less than

So,based on these statistics,

chance of having less
for

than 1500
out
we can predict
of

mm of avergge rginfall
o years.

that there isa

in
60
the UKin

2022.
Tcan describe, predict and explain results from
135.65. 654 small and large number of trials.

4 Chapter 10
 worksheet
kboot Consolidation

true orfalse
false for each statement. 13morks]
Circle

Itispossible to get a sum of 13 when two six-sided dice

arerolled. True/False

The events of getting an odd and an even number

on adie roll are not mutually exclusive. True/False

There is afifty-fiftychance of gettingahead or

atail in a coin toss. True/False

Classifytheevents according to their probability of happening.Write

theirletters in one of the categories in the table below. [6marks]

A: Cyrus goes tothe tollet again 3 minutes after he visited

the toilet.

B: The probability of spinning a yellow part on a fair spinner with the

colours yellow and green only.

The probabilityof spinning a pink part on an unfair spinner with a

C:
smaller part in pink and a larger part in blue.

D: The month of Aprilcomes after February.

E: The chance that Ada will be late for school because she left home
30 minutes later than uSual.
number
F. The chance of gettingthe number l usingarandom
1 to 100.
generator thatgenerates anumber from

50% chance More than 50% chance

Less than 50% chance Exactly

Probability 195
 Ada hasa spinner.
12
12
3 2og2
\6
9

What is the probability of the arrow landing on

(3marks
an odd number? 6 out of12chance

acomposite number? 6.out of_12chance

ared part? 2_out of_chance
Mark on the probability line and describetheprobability of the
event happening.
(3marks

Spinning anumber thatis even and on the red orgreen

section.

0% 25% fifty-fifty 75% 100%

33%
Spinning a prime number and on the red ection.
T
0% 25% 9defifty-fifty 75% 100%

Spinning amultiple of 3and on the blue section.

0% 25% fifty-fifty 75% 100%

Which events in aremutually exclusive? (Imork

Gatting pina furckar and_ G0

96 Chapter 10
 has some number cards.
Vera

35 48 16 24 13 48 27 16 24 16

27 16 16 48 45 13 16 48 27 48

Describe the expected probability of picking each number card.

(7marks]
Number card Probability Probability (in percentage)

13 out of 20 chance 96

16
6_out of 20chance
24

27

35
3
2out
out of

out of
of 20
20
20 chance
chance

chance 13 %
45 Out of %
ecsence
48 5outof 20chance = 2596

Vera conducts n
experiment to test if the probabilities are true.
50 times
She picks a cardand puts it back each time. She does this
and reCords the results using a dot plot.

11

10

6
5
4
ouenblt
3
2

13 16 24 27 35 45 48
Number on the card picked

Probability 197
 Calculate the probability of getting eachrnumber
Vera's trials.
based on

Number card Probability ofVera picking it

13 out of50
chance0%
16 6 out of
50chance>|2
24 J0.out of
G0chance>20
27

35 6_out
0 out ofS0 chance
of50 chance
20
l0%
45 0_out of 50chance2
48 q_out of
GO_chancs8
The results obtained 50trials are the Same as//
in

close to)
not close to theexpected probability in
[imark
Vera decidesto conduct more trials. She records the
finalI
in the table below. resuits

13marks]
Number card
Frequency
13
54-) %
16
220>3%
24 78||%
27
35
80- ||%
29%
45
48 + 202-23%
Total number of trials Veraconducted =
The results obtained in these trials are the
same as/closerto/
further from the expected probability compared to thé
results in b

This is probably becausea small /Qarge number of trials

shows
results that arecloser to the expected
probábility.

198 chapter 10