Statistics and probability

11
Probability
Many people suffer from aviophobia, the fear of flying.
However, we are more likely to be involved in a car accident
than a plane crash. There is a 1-in-5000 chance of being
killed on a car trip compared to 1-in-11 million on a plane
flight. This is amazing when you consider that each day
worldwide there are 27 000 planes in the sky carrying over
4 million passengers. Why do you think there are so few
plane accidents compared to road accidents? And why are
people more afraid of flying than travelling in a car?
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n Chapter outline n Wordbank

Proficiency strands certain Sure to happen; the opposite of impossible
11-01 Sample spaces U C complementary event The ‘opposite’ event; for example,
11-02 Probability U F PS C the complementary event to selecting an Ace from a deck
11-03 The range of probability U F PS R C of cards is not selecting an Ace
11-04 Experimental probability U F PS R
11-05 Complementary events U F PS R C equally likely To have exactly the same chance of
occurring; for example, when tossing a coin, heads or tails
are equally likely
event A result involving one or more outcomes; for
example, the event of rolling an even number on a die
contains the three outcomes {2, 4, 6}
outcome A single result from a situation or experiment;
for example, one outcome when rolling a die is to roll a 6
random Describes a situation in which every possible
outcome has an equal chance
sample space The set of all possible outcomes of a
situation or experiment

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n In this chapter you will:

Maths clip
• construct sample spaces for single-step experiments with equally likely outcomes
Sample spaces
• assign probabilities to the outcomes of events and determine probabilities for events
MAT07SPVT00009 • recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1
Weblink • compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies
Master class on • identify complementary events and use the sum of probabilities to solve problems
probability

SkillCheck
Worksheet 1 Rate each event as being impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely or certain.
a Choosing a pink ball from a bag of blue balls
StartUp assignment 11
b It will rain next month.
MAT07SPWK10086
c A coin shows tails when you toss it.
Worksheet d You obtain a driver’s licence tomorrow.
e You will have your driver’s licence in 20 years time.
Chance cards
f Rolling two sixes on a pair of dice
MAT07SPWK10087 g You are over 10 years old.
Worksheet
h You draw a red card from a deck of playing cards.
i You will use a computer today.
Describing probabilities
j It will snow in your town tomorrow
MAT07SPWK00061
2 Simplify each fraction.
a 2 b 8 c 27 d 15
10 18 30 80
3 Convert each number to a decimal.
3
a 7 b
5
c 26% d 70%
8
4 Convert each number to a percentage:
a 0.6 b 0.31 c 3 d 1
4 20
5 Is the chance of each event more than or less than 12?
a You having another brother or sister one day
b You going overseas this year
c You being at school next Monday
d You being a parent in 20 years time
e You getting a good report for English this year
f Your home phone ringing today
6 a Draw an interval 15 cm long and use it to make a probability scale for the chances from
impossible to certain.
no way not likely even chance almost definitely

0 1 1
impossible 2 certain

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b On your scale, mark the position of each event described below.
A It will be hot tomorrow.
B The Sun will rise tomorrow.
C There will be floods in your town this year.
D There will be no car accidents in Sydney tomorrow.
E There are more than five people at your home at the same time today.
F Someone at school has a birthday today.
G It will rain tomorrow.
H The Sharks will win their next game.
I The next person to visit your classroom is male.
J Your favourite song comes on your radio station in the next hour.
7 Which term best describes the chance that the next baby born in Australia is a girl? Select
the correct answer A, B, C, or D.
A certain B definite C even chance D probable
8 Convert each number to a simplified fraction.
a 0.35 b 0.2 c 48% d 6%
9 Evaluate each expression.
a 11 b 13 c 1 4
6 4 10

11-01 Sample spaces

Probability is the branch of mathematics that studies the chances of different events occurring. In
any situation, the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space. For example, if a coin is
tossed, the sample space is {heads, tails}. If each outcome has an equal chance, then we say that
each outcome is equally likely.

Example 1
a Write the sample space for this spinner.
b How many outcomes are possible? blue red
c Is each outcome equally likely?

Solution green yellow

a The sample space is {red, yellow, green, blue}.

b There are 4 possible outcomes.
c Each coloured region is equal in size (14 of the circle), so each outcome is equally likely.

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Probability

The language of probability

This table lists some important probability terms, and how they apply to Example 1.

Probability term In Example 1

An experiment (or chance experiment) is a Spinning a spinner
situation involving chance that leads to
results called outcomes.
A trial is one go or run of the experiment. One spin of the spinner
An outcome is the result of an experiment. The arrow landing on green
The sample space is the set of all possible {red, yellow, green, blue}
outcomes.
An event is one or more outcomes of an The arrow landing on a ‘traffic light’
experiment. colour: red, yellow or green
In a random experiment, every possible All spins on this spinner are random
outcome has the same chance of occurring. because every colour has the same chance

Example 2
a How many outcomes are in the sample space when
a die is rolled?
b Is each outcome equally likely? ‘Die’ is the singular word for
‘dice’: one ‘die’, two or more
‘dice’
Solution
a The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, so there are 6 possible outcomes.
b Each outcome is equally likely, because each number has the same chance of coming up.

Example 3
A jar contains 5 red, 3 green, 6 yellow and 2 blue lollies. Taylor selects
one lolly from the jar at random.
‘At random’ means that each
lolly has an equal chance of
being chosen

a How many lollies are in the jar?

b How many outcomes are in the sample space for the colour of the lolly?
c Is each colour equally likely?

Solution
a Number of lollies ¼ 5 þ 3 þ 6 þ 2 ¼ 16
b 4 outcomes {red, green, yellow, blue}
c Each colour is not equally likely because there are different amounts of each colour. Some
colours occur more frequently and have higher chances of being chosen.

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Exercise 11-01 Sample spaces
1 For each spinner, write down the sample space and count the number of possible outcomes. See Example 1

a b c
red
red red blue
green blue

blue blue red

yellow

d e f

white red red

white

white white

white
black green

2 For each chance experiment, count the number of possible outcomes and state whether each See Example 2
outcome is equally likely.
a tossing a coin
b the result of a soccer game when Australia plays South Korea
c the first letter of a person’s name
d the gender of a baby
e the last digit of a phone number
f the result of a driving test
3 List the outcomes in each event.
a rolling an odd number on a die
b selecting a vowel from the letters of the alphabet
c having a house number greater than 4 but less than 10
d having a birthday in a month beginning with M
e living in a state capital city
f being in a primary school grade
4 This spinner is spun. See Example 3
a How many outcomes are possible?
b Is each outcome equally likely? Explain your answer.
c Which outcome is most likely to occur?
d Which outcome is least likely?

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5 A money box contains four $2 coins, three $1 coins, two 50c coins, six 20c coins and five
10c coins. It is shaken and one coin falls out at random.
a How many coins are in the money box?
b List the outcomes in the sample space for the type of coin.
c Is each type of coin equally likely?
d Which type of coin is most likely to fall out?
6 The 52 cards in a standard deck of playing cards are shown below, divided evenly into four
suits: hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades.

Hearts:

Diamonds:

Clubs:

Spades:

The cards are shuffled and one is taken out at random.

a How many outcomes are in the sample space?
b Is each outcome equally likely?
c How many cards are in each suit?
d How many red cards are in the deck?
e How many 7s?
f How many black Kings?
g How many 8 of diamonds?
h How many cards with an even number?
i How many picture cards (J, K, Q)?
j How many red Aces?
7 A 3-digit number is to be formed from the digits 1, 2, 5. Which of the following answers
shows the sample space? Select A, B, C or D.
A {1, 2, 5} B {125}
C {125, 152, 215} D {125, 152, 215, 251, 512, 521}
8 This spinner is spun.
a Write down the sample space of possible letters.
A C
b Is each letter equally likely?
B
c Which letter is most likely? A
A B

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9 Daniel is holding these 12 playing cards. Elvira picks a card without looking.
a How many 5s are held in the 12 cards?
b List the sample space of possible numbers.
c Which number is Elvira most likely to pick?
d List the sample space of possible colours.
e Which colour is Elvira more likely to pick?
f List the sample space of possible suits.
g Which suit is Elvira least likely to pick?

11-02 Probability
We can calculate the chance or probability of an event occurring as a fraction, percentage or a Worksheet
decimal. Probability problems

MAT07SPWK10088
Summary
P(E) means ‘the probability of an event, E (occurring)’. If all possible outcomes are equally
Worksheet
likely, then:
Games of chance
number of favourable outcomes
PðEÞ ¼ A favourable outcome is one MAT07SPWK10089
total number of outcomes
of the outcomes in the event
number of outcomes matching E
or PðEÞ ¼ that you want, whose
number of outcomes in the sample space probability you are calculating. Puzzle sheet

Spinner game

MAT07SPPS10042
Example 4
A die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling: Homework sheet

a a5 b a7 c an odd number d a number less than 3 Probability 1

MAT07SPHS10035
Solution
Puzzle sheet
The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. There are six possible outcomes and each outcome is
Theoretical
equally likely. probabilities

a P(5) ¼ 1 One chance in 6 MAT07SPPS00041

6
0
b P(7) ¼ ¼0 No chance because we cannot roll a 7 on a die
6
c P(odd) ¼ 3 ¼ 1 3 odd numbers out of 6: {1, 3, 5}
6 2
d P(less than 3) ¼ 2 ¼ 1 2 numbers out of 6: {1 and 2}
6 3

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Example 5

TLF learning object A jar of lollies contains 5 red, 3 green, 6 yellow and 2 blue lollies. Taylor
The foul food maker
selects one lolly from the jar at random and notes its colour. Calculate each
(L215) probability below.
a P(yellow)
b P(green or blue)
c P(traffic light colour), as a percentage
d P(not red), as a decimal

Solution
Total number of lollies in the jar ¼ 5 þ 3 þ 6 þ 2 ¼ 16
Number of yellow lollies
a PðyellowÞ ¼
Total number of lollies
¼ 6
16
¼ 3
8
No. of green lollies þ No. of blue lollies
b Pðgreen or blueÞ ¼
Total no. of lollies
¼ 3 þ 2
16
¼ 5
16
c P(traffic light colour) ¼ P(red or green or yellow)
¼5þ3þ6
16
¼ 14
16
Multiply by 100 to convert the fraction into a percentage.
14 3 100 ¼ 87.5%
16
d P(not red) ¼ P(green or yellow or blue)

¼3þ6þ2
16
11
¼
16
¼ 0:6875 converting to a decimal

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Exercise 11-02 Probability
1 a List all the possible outcomes when a coin is tossed. See Example 4
b How many different outcomes are possible?
Extra questions
c What is the probability of getting a tail?
Describing probability
d Write the probability of getting a tail as a percentage.
MAT07SPEQ00039
2 A die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling:
a a4 b an even number c a 10
d a number greater than 1 e a prime number f a number less than 7

3 For each spinner, calculate the probability of the pointer landing on red, as a percentage.

a b c
red red red
white blue

blue black green blue red

d e f
red red red white
white white
white white
white white red white white white

white white red red

4 A money box contains four $2 coins, three $1 coins, two 50c coins, six 20c coins and five 10c See Example 5
coins. It is shaken and one coin falls out at random. Calculate each probability below.
a P(50c coin) b P($1 coin), as a decimal
c P(10c or 20c coin), as a percentage d P(not a 10c coin)
e P(gold coin), as a decimal f P(a coin under $1), as a percentage

5 A packet of jellybeans has 4 yellow, 3 red, 6 green and 3 black jellybeans remaining. You tip
the packet and one jellybean rolls out at random. What is the probability that it is not a red
jellybean? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.

A 4 B 3 C 3 D 13
12 16 13 16
6 A letter is selected at random from the alphabet. Find the probability that it is:
a M b R c M or R
d a vowel e not a vowel f a letter before K in the alphabet

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7 The needle on the spinner shown is spun.

a Which colour has a probability of 13?
b Which colour has a probability closest to 14?
c Which colour has a probability of 16?
d Which three colours have a combined probability of 50%?

Worked solutions 8 A bag contains 6 white, 9 green and 5 blue marbles. Hannah takes one from the bag at
Exercise 11-02
random. Which colour has a probability of:
MAT07SPWS10060
a 0.25? b 45%? c 3?
10
9 A computer generates a random number from 1 to 10. Find the following probabilities.
a P(a square number) b P(a number less than 4), as a decimal
c P(a prime number), as a percentage d P(a factor of 10)
e P(a number greater than 6), as a decimal f P(a 5 or 7), as a percentage

10 What is the probability that a baby is born on a weekday rather than a weekend, if each day is
equally likely?
11 Draw and label a spinner that would produce the following probabilities:
P(red) ¼ 1, P(yellow) ¼ 24%, P(blue) ¼ 1, P(black) ¼ 20%.
8 3
12 Ryan bought 6 raffle tickets at the school fete. If a total of 800 tickets was sold, what is the
probability that Ryan wins first prize? Express your answer:
a as a fraction b as a decimal
13 Your maths teacher calls out a name randomly from your class roll. What is the probability
that it is:
a your name? b a girl’s name?
c someone aged 12? d someone with blond hair?

14 A deck of 52 playing cards is shuffled and one is taken out at random. Find the probability
that it is:
a a red card b a club card c the King of spades
d a Queen e a card with an odd number f a black picture card
g a red 7 h a4

You may refer to the diagram from question 6, Exercise 11-01, on page 444.
15 An Esky contains 8 cans of lemonade, 5 cans of orange drink and 2 cans of lime drink. How
many cans of cola must be added so that the probability of randomly selecting:
a a can of lemonade is 50%? b an orange drink is 0.25?
1 2
c a lime drink is ? d a cola can is ?
12 5
16 What is the probability that a person randomly chosen has a birthday in a month beginning
with the letter J? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
A 1 B 1 C 1 D 1
12 6 4 3
17 There are 16 teams in a football competition. Paula, therefore, believes that her favourite team,
The Bulldogs, has a probability of 1 of winning the competition. Discuss with your friends
16
whether Paula is correct and write your answer, giving reasons.

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18 A student council is made up of a number of boys and girls. One member of council is
selected at random to attend the regional conference. How many boys and girls could there be
5
in the council if the probability of selecting a boy is ?
8
19 A fish tank has 8 red and 14 yellow fish. One fish is randomly selected from the tank.
a Write the probability that the fish is yellow as a decimal correct to 2 decimal places.
b Write the probability that the fish is red as a percentage.
c How many red fish must be removed from the tank to make the probability of selecting a
red fish 0.3?

20 a What is the lowest probability value? Name an event that could have this value.
b What is the highest probability value? Name an event that could have this value.

Just for the record Insurance

Insurance is a financial scheme that offers money in
times of loss or damage. People can insure their houses
against fire, flood or theft. You pay an amount each
month or year, and if the loss or damage happens, the
insurance company pays you a large sum of money to
replace the insured item.
Insurance was invented in ancient Babylon around
3000 BCE, when voyagers and traders insured their
ships against damage or loss. Modern mathematicians
working for insurance companies use the statistics
of past losses and deaths to predict the chances of
future losses and deaths. They have found some
interesting probabilities, such as those shown in
the table.

Event Chance
Being in a house fire 1 chance in 800
Going to prison Male: 1 chance in 800
Female: 1 chance in 24 000
Dying in a traffic accident 1 in 5000
Dying at age 5 1 chance in 10 000
Being struck by lightning 1 chance in 280 000
Dying in a plane crash 1 chance in 11 million

An actuary works in the insurance industry. Find out what an actuary does.

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Probability

11-03 The range of probability

TLF learning object Because probability is a fraction
Exploring probability number of favourable outcomes
(L6567) PðEÞ ¼
total number of outcomes
its value must range from 0 to 1, or as a percentage, from 0% to 100%.

no way not likely even chance almost definitely

must happen

0 1 1
impossible 2 certain

Summary
• The probability of an impossible event is 0.
• The probability of a certain event is 1.
• The probability of any event ranges from 0 to 1.

A probability close to 1 indicates an event that is very likely or probable.

A probability close to zero indicates an event that is very unlikely or improbable.

Example 6
Five cards numbered 11, 5, 9, 7 and 3 are shuffled and Jo chooses one at random. Find the
probability that the number chosen is:
a divisible by 3 b less than 12 c a factor of 45 d even

Solution
a P(divisible by 3) ¼ 2 2 numbers {9, 3}
5
5
b P(less than 12) ¼ ¼ 1 All 5 numbers are less than 12: a certain event.
5
c P(a factor of 45) ¼ 3 3 numbers {5, 9, 3}
5
0
d P(even) ¼ ¼ 0 None are even: an impossible event
5

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Exercise 11-03 The range of probability
1 If a six-sided die is rolled, find the probability of rolling: See Example 6
a a5 b an 8 c a factor of 12
d a prime number e a number less than 7 f a multiple of 3

2 One letter is selected at random from the word EVACUATION. Find the percentage
probability that it is:
a V b A c X d a vowel
3 Daniel is holding these 12 playing cards. Elvira picks a card without looking.
Find the probability that it:
a is red b shows an even number
c is a picture card d has the number 7
e is a hearts card f not an Ace

4 A basketball team captain is to be chosen randomly from four candidates, Carl, Lee, Su and
Aldo. What is the probability that the captain chosen is:
a Aldo? b Su? c Manjeet?
5 Match each probability value to its correct description:
1
a b 0 c 90% d 1
2
3
e f 0.1 g 0.6 h 2%
4
A cannot happen B better than average chance
C even chance D good chance
E very likely F almost impossible
G slim chance H must happen

6 A coin falls out of a piggy bank containing four 5-cent, five 10-cent, six 20-cent and three $1
coins. Find the probability that it is:
a a 5c coin b a $1 coin c a 50c coin
d a 10c or 20c coin e not a $1 coin f not a 20c coin

7 A traffic light shows red for 63 seconds, green for 99 seconds and yellow for 2 seconds. Find
as a decimal the probability that it shows:
a green b yellow c red or green d not red, yellow or green
8 A computer generates a random number from 1 to 20. Find as a percentage the probability
that the number is:
a a multiple of 4 b a factor of 20 c a number less than 30
d 25 e a prime number f divisible by 5

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9 A die has 2 faces blue, 1 face red and the other faces green. It is rolled once. Match each event
to its correct probability:
a red b blue c yellow
d a colour that is not red e blue, red or green f a traffic light colour
A 2 B 50% C 5 D 1
3 6 3
E 0 F 1 G 100%
6
Worked solutions 10 A letter is chosen at random from the words ‘NEW CENTURY MATHS’. Find the following
Exercise 11-03
probabilities.
MAT07SPWS10061
a P(T) b P(M) c P(N or E)
d P(a consonant) e P(a letter also found in PROBABILITY) f P(K)
11 Write an event that could have a probability of:
a 1 b 0 c 90% d 1
2
3
e f 0.1 g 0.6 h 2%
4

Investigation: The Greedy Pig game

Puzzle sheet This is a game for four or more players. You need a playing
Greedy Pig game
die and a score sheet (use the link to print one out).
1 All players stand at the start of a round. A die is rolled
MAT07SPPS10041
twice and the total is each player’s starting score.
Weblink 2 Before the next roll of the die, each player has the
The Monty Hall option of sitting down and keeping their score, or
problem remaining standing and ‘being greedy’ with the chance
of increasing their score from the next roll of the die.
3 The die is rolled and the number is added to the score
of each player standing, but if 2 comes up, all standing
players lose their points.
4 A round ends when a 2 is rolled or all players are seated. Each player then records their
score for the round.
5 The round is repeated four more times and the overall winner is the player with the
highest total score for the five rounds.
6 Play this game several times. Is there any strategy to winning?

Just for the record Buckley’s chance

When someone says you have ‘Buckley’s chance’ of something happening, it means that you
have little or no chance at all. This is old Australian slang based on the name of a Melbourne
department store in the 1850s called ‘Buckley and Nunn’. The original expression was ‘You
have two chances: Buckley’s and none’.
English is often a funny and illogical language. For example, ‘slim chance’ and ‘fat chance’
sound like opposites but they both mean the same thing.
Find another slang expression that describes a chance.

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11-04 Experimental probability

Probability calculated using the formula: Worksheet

number of favourable outcomes A page of spinners

PðEÞ ¼
total number of outcomes MAT07SPWK10090

is more specifically called the theoretical probability (or calculated probability). Worksheet
We can also determine probability based on the results of an experiment or trial that has been
Coins probability
repeated many times, such as testing the safety of different cars, or rely on past statistics, such as
MAT07SPWK10091
the number of rainy days in April. This type of probability is called experimental probability or
relative frequency, and has the following formula. Homework sheet

Probability 2
Summary MAT07SPHS10036

number of times the event happened

PðEÞ ¼
total number of trials
frequency of E
or PðEÞ ¼ Frequency means the number
total frequency
of times something happens

Example 7
Selina spun this spinner 80 times and found the following results: Animated example

Outcome Red Green Yellow Theoretical probability

No. of times 44 25 11 MAT07SPAE00016

Puzzle sheet
a What is the theoretical probability of spinning red?
b For 80 spins, what is the expected number of Experimental
probability
times of spinning red? How does this compare
MAT07SPPS00039
with the actual number of times?
c What is the experimental probability of spinning red?

Solution
a P(red) ¼ 5 ¼ 1
10 2
b Expected number of reds ¼ 1 3 80 ¼ 40.
2
From the table, the observed number of reds ¼ 44, which is close to the expected number.
c Experimental P(red) ¼ 44 ¼ 11
80 20

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Probability

Summary
The expected number of times an event will occur over repeated trials is called the expected
frequency.
Expected frequency ¼ theoretical probability 3 number of trials

Exercise 11-04 Experimental probability

See Example 7 1 For the spinner in Example 7, find:
a the theoretical probability of spinning yellow
Extra questions
b the expected number of times of spinning yellow and how this compares with the observed
Experimental
probability number of times
MAT07SPEQ00040 c the experimental probability of spinning yellow.

Worked solutions 2 A pair of dice was rolled 50 times and their sum calculated each time. The results are shown in
Exercise 11-04
this table.
MAT07SPWS10062 Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Frequency 0 2 4 6 5 5 9 6 8 3 2
Puzzle sheet

Duelling dice a Find, as a decimal, the experimental probability of rolling a sum:

MAT07SPPS00038
i of 10 ii of 7 or 11 iii that is even
Worksheet iv less than 6 v greater than 10 vi that is a prime number
Coin toss experiment
b Which sum:
MAT07SPWK00062
i was most likely? ii had a probability of 2 ? iii was least likely?
Worksheet
25
iv had a probability of 10%? v was second-most likely? vi had a probability of 4 ?
Experimental 25
probabilities
3 a Copy this table.
MAT07SPWK00063
Outcome Tally Frequency
Head
Tail
Total

b Toss a coin 50 times and record the result for each

toss in the table.
c What is the theoretical probability of tossing a tail?
d In 50 tosses, what is the expected frequency of tails?
How does this compare with the actual frequency?
e What is the experimental probability of tossing a tail?
f What do you think would happen to the
experimental probability of a tail if the coin was
tossed 1000 times rather than 50?

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4 The exact amounts of soft drink in 50 cans of drink were measured and the results are shown
below.
Amount (mL) 373 374 375 376 377
Number of cans 2 6 38 3 1

Using these results, if you bought a can of drink, what is the probability that it will contain
exactly 375 mL of drink? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.

A 375 B 19 C 6 D 3
50 25 25 50
5 a Copy this table.
Outcome Tally Frequency
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total

b Roll a die 50 times and record the result for each roll in
the table.
c Find the theoretical probability and expected frequency
of rolling:
i 3 ii 6
iii an even number iv a number below 6

d Find the experimental probability of rolling:

i 3 ii 6
iii an even number iv a number below 6

e How do the observed frequencies compare with the expected frequencies?

f What would you expect to happen if the die was rolled 1000 times?
6 A die was rolled 80 times, with the results shown below. Worked solutions

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 Exercise 11-04

Frequency 11 13 9 13 12 22 MAT07SPWS10062

a Is each outcome equally likely?

b Do you think this die is loaded (unfair)? Give a reason for your answer.
c Write the experimental probability of rolling a 1 on this die, as a percentage.
d If this die was rolled 100 times, how many times would you expect 3 to come up?
7 Tamara tossed a coin many times and got 140 heads and 110 tails. Calculate the experimental
probability of heads with this coin as a percentage.

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 Chapter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability

Investigation: Spinning chance

Worksheet You will need: A pencil, a paper clip and an enlarged copy
Spinning chance
of the spinner used in Example 7 (use the link to print one out).
MAT07SPWK10092 1 Which colour is most likely to be spun? Why?
2 Which colour is least likely?
3 Copy this table.
Worksheet

A page of spinners Outcome Tally Frequency

MAT07SPWK10090
Red
Yellow
Green
Puzzle sheet
Total
Spinner game
4 Work with a partner. Place a pencil on the centre of the spinner
MAT07SPPS10042
and a paper clip around the point. Spin the paper clip around the
spinner, and note which colour it lands on.
5 Take turns to spin the spinner 100 times and use the
table to record your results.
6 Find the theoretical probability and expected frequency
of spinning:
i red ii yellow iii green
7 How did your results compare with the expected number?
8 Find the experimental probability of spinning:
i red ii yellow iii green
9 What would happen if 1000 spins were made? How many of
each colour would be expected?
10 Combine the results of your class on a whiteboard or projector
to calculate the experimental probability for each colour. For such a
large number of trials, are the experimental probabilities closer to the
theoretical probabilities?
11 The spinner can also be simulated (imitated) using the random number generator on a
calculator, which outputs a random decimal between 0 and 1 with three decimal places.
Let 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 represent red, 5 and 6 represent yellow and 7, 8 and 9 represent green.
Now each decimal generated can represent three spins of the spinner. For example, 0.561
represents yellow, yellow, red.
12 Copy the blank table from question 3 again and use the ‘Random’ function on your
calculator to simulate 100 spins.
13 Use the table to record your results.
14 How did your results compare with the expected frequencies?

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Technology Rolling a die

Simulations can be used to model or replicate real-life events. Mathematicians, actuaries, scientists Technology worksheet
and statisticians can often simulate events on a computer, which saves time and money because Excel
large amounts of data can be obtained in a relatively short period of time. Coin tossing experiment
In this activity, a graphics calculator is used to simulate the rolling of a normal die with sides MAT07SPCT00022
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
TLF learning object
Note: This activity uses a Casio graphics calculator.
1 Copy the table shown below. Dice duels (L2641)

Outcome Number of times rolled TLF learning object

1 Dice duels: tool (L2645)
2
3
4
5
6

2 Using the RUN mode, enter the following formula: Int(Ran# 3 6 þ 1) as shown below.

OPTN NUM Int EXIT ( PROB Ran# × 6 + 1 )

( F6 )( F4 )( F2 ) ( F3 )( F4 )

3 Repeat the simulation 20 times and record the results in your table.
4 Are certain numbers more likely to be rolled than others? (For example is a 2 more likely to
be rolled than a 5?) Do your results reflect this?
5 Compare your results with the simulated results of your class. Are they similar or different?
Are they what you and your classmates expected? Discuss.

Mental skills 11 Maths without calculators

Adding 90c and 95c

A quick way to mentally add monetary amounts ending in 90c or 95c is to round up to
whole dollars and then subtract 10c or 5c respectively.
1 Study each example.
a $8:95 þ $17:95 þ $11:95 ¼ $9 þ $18 þ $12  5c  5c  5c
¼ $39  15c
¼ $38:85
b $14:90 þ $5:95 þ $12:90 ¼ $15 þ $6 þ $13  10c  5c  10c
¼ $34  25c
¼ $33:75
c $18:90 þ $24:90 þ $8:80 ¼ $19 þ $25 þ $9  10c  10c  20c
¼ $53  40c
9780170188777 ¼ $52:60 457
 Chapter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability

2 Now simplify each expression.

a $12.95 þ $7.95 þ $14.95 b $20.90 þ $4.95 þ $13.95
c $9.95 þ $11.90 þ $13.90 d $11.95 þ $15.90 þ $6.95
e $13.95 þ $19.95 þ $8.95 f $34.90 þ $34.90
g $27.95 þ $16.95 þ $12.90 h $11.90 þ $21.95 þ $19.80
i $24.95 þ $34.95 j $33.90 þ $49.90 þ $49.90

Investigation: Complementary events

In everyday life, we use the word ‘complementary’ to describe things that go together and
‘complete the picture’ when they are together. For example, when dressing for an occasion:
• a shirt and a matching tie complement each other
• a dress and a matching pair of shoes complement each other
Remember also that ‘complementary’ angles add to 90°.
In probability, complementary events are events that together make up all the possible
outcomes.
Event Complementary event
Tossing a tail on a coin Tossing a head on a coin
Rolling a 6 on a die Rolling any of the other numbers, from 1 to 5, on a die
Raining Not raining
Being born on a Monday Being born on a day other than Monday

1 Suppose that there is an equal chance of being born on any day of the week: Monday to
Sunday.
a What is P(Tues), the probability of being born on a Tuesday?
b What is P(not Tues), the probability of being born on a day other than Tuesday?
c What do you notice about P(Tues) þ P(not Tues)?
2 A fruit bowl contains 7 apples, 4 oranges and 9 bananas. One piece of fruit is selected at
random from the bowl.
a Find P(orange) b Find P(not orange)
c What do you notice about P(orange) þ P(not orange)?
3 A baby is selected at random from the maternity section of a large hospital. There is an
equal chance of the baby being a boy or a girl.
a Find P(boy) b Find P(girl)
c What do you notice about P(boy) þ P(girl)?
4 Copy and complete the following sentence:
The probability of an event _____ the probability of its complementary event must always
equal _____.

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11-05 Complementary events

Worksheet
In any situation, the probabilities of all possible outcomes must add to 1.
Theoretical
Complementary events are events that together make up all the possible outcomes, such as a head probabilities
and a tail when tossing a coin. The complement of an event E means all of those outcomes that are
MAT07SPWK00064
not E, or that are the ‘opposite’ of E.
Because an event and its complement covers all possible outcomes, the sum of their probabilities
must equal 1.

Summary

P(E) þ P(not E) ¼ 1
or P(not E) ¼ 1 – P(E)
or P(complementary event) ¼ 1 – P(event)
or P(event not occurring) ¼ 1 – P(event occurring)

If the probability is written in percentage form, then P(not E) ¼ 100% – P(E).

Example 8
On this spinner, what is the probability of spinning:
a red? red
b a colour that is not red? green white
c a colour that is not green?
white red
Solution white
a PðredÞ ¼ 2 ¼ 1
6 3
b P(not red) ¼ 1  P(red)
The complement of ‘red’ is
¼11 ‘not red’, which is ‘white or
3 green’.
¼ 2
3

Note that PðredÞ þ Pðnot redÞ ¼ 1 þ 2 ¼ 1,

3 3
which covers all possible outcomes.
c PðgreenÞ ¼ 1 The complement of ‘green’ is
6 ‘not green’, which is ‘red or
P(not green) ¼ 1 – P(green) white’.
¼11
6
¼5
6
Note that PðgreenÞ þ Pðnot greenÞ ¼ 1 þ 5 ¼ 1,
6 6
which covers all possible outcomes.

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 Chapter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability

Exercise 11-05 Complementary events

1 Write the complement for each event.
a The sex of a new baby being female b Rain tomorrow
c Losing a soccer match d Being left-handed
e Being over 18 years of age f Choosing a heart from a deck of cards
g A traffic light showing green h A train arriving late

See Example 8 2 A die is rolled. What is the probability that the result is:
a 3? b less than 3? c prime?
d not a 3? e not less than 3? f not prime?

3 Kylie buys a ticket in a raffle in which 1000 tickets are sold and there is only one prize. What is
the probability of Kylie:
a winning the prize? b not winning the prize?
4 A jar contains jellybeans in the following colours and amounts:
red 40, blue 25, black 50, white 15. One jellybean is selected at random.
What is the probability that the jellybean is:
a white? b not white? c yellow?
d not yellow? e not red? f not blue or black?
5 Write the probability of the event that is complementary to each of the following events.
1
a The probability of choosing a Jack from a pack of cards is 13 .
b The chance of shooting a basketball hoop is 55%.
c The probability of winning a prize is 0.07.

Worked solutions 6 In a bag of toy cars there are only three colours: red, blue and white. If you take out a car at
Exercise 11-05
random, the chance of it being red is 0.5, and the chance of it being white is 0.2.
a What is the chance of selecting ‘red or white’?
MAT07SPWS10063
b What is the chance of the car you select being blue?
c If the bag holds 30 cars, how many of each colour would you expect to find?
d What is the chance of the car you select being pink?
7 What is the probability of the next person you meet being born in a month:
a beginning with the letter A? b that does not begin with the letter A?
8 Four students, Sue, Liam, Emily and Matt, write their names on cards and place the cards in a
bag. A card is chosen, without looking, to select the class captain.
a Find the probability that Emily was not chosen.
b Find the probability that the captain is a boy.
c What is the chance that the captain is not a boy?
d What is the chance the captain is the teacher?
9 Which of the following is the complementary event to ‘winning a race’? Select the correct
answer A, B, C, or D.
A coming last B coming second or third
C not winning the race D coming second

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10 In a football match, the Eels have a 43% chance of winning, while the Tigers have a 49%
chance of winning.
a What other outcome is possible? b What is the probability of this outcome?
11 The probability that a man has skin cancer is 0.03. What is the probability that a man doesn’t
have skin cancer? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
A 0.2 B 0.7 C 0.07 D 0.97
12 The letters of the word PROBABILITY are written on separate cards and one is randomly
selected. What is the probability that a letter drawn out is:
a not P? b not a vowel? c not I? d not A or B?
13 The probability that it will rain this weekend is 85%. What is the probability that it won’t rain? Worked solutions

14 What is the decimal probability that a mobile number selected at random doesn’t end in 0 or 1? Exercise 11-05

MAT07SPWS10063
Power plus

1 Two dice are rolled and the sum of the numbers is calculated.
a Copy and complete this table to show all possible sums.
b How many different sums are possible? First die
c Why isn’t each sum equally likely? + 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
d Which sum is most likely?
2 3 4
e Which sum is least likely?
Second die

3 4
f What is the probability of a sum of 2? 4
g What is the probability of a sum of 10? 5
h Which sum has a probability of 19? 6

2 Three coins are tossed together. One possible outcome is HHT, that is, heads on the first
coin, heads on the second coin, tails on the third coin.
a How many other possible outcomes are there?
List them.
b Use your answers from part a to calculate the probability of:
i three heads ii two heads iii one head
iv no heads v at least one head vi at most one head
3 At Harry’s takeaway food shop, you can order
a special meal deal for $8 that consists of one
Harry’s Takeaway Menu
Main meals Drinks Desserts
main meal, one drink and one dessert. Hot dog Cola Cake
Pizza Lemonade Ice cream
a List all possible meal deal combinations.
Hamburger
How many are there?
b If you were to choose a combination at
random, what is the probability that it will:
i be pizza, lemonade and cake?
ii not contain a hot dog?
iii contain cola?

9780170188777 461
 Chapter 11 review

n Language of maths
Puzzle sheet
certain expected frequency improbable probable
Probability crossword chance experiment likely random
MAT07SPPS10043 complementary event experimental probability observed sample space
die/dice favourable outcome theoretical probability
Quiz

Probability
equally likely frequency possible trial
MAT07SPQZ00009
event impossible probability unlikely

Worksheet
1 What is the opposite of impossible and what is its probability value?
Probability review 2 What is the difference between impossible and improbable?
MAT07SPWK00065
3 What is the name given to the set of all possible outcomes for a situation?
4 What is the complementary event to a baby being born on a weekend?
5 What does it mean when a name is drawn out of a box ‘at random’?
6 What word means the number of times something happens?

n Topic overview
• Write about what you have learnt in this chapter. O B AB IL I
Worksheet
• Write down the parts of the chapter that were new to you. PR T

Y
Mind map: Probability
• Copy and complete:
MAT07SPWK10093 The things I understand about probability are…
The things I am still not confident about in this chapter are…

Print (or copy) and complete this mind map of

the topic, adding detail to its branches and using
pictures, symbols and colour where needed. Ask es
le spac
your teacher to check your work. Samp

Probability

ity
lity a bil
Range of probabi ob
tal pr
Experimen

462 9780170188777
 Chapter 11 revision

1 List the outcomes for the sample space in each situation. See Exercise 11-01
a The result of a driving test
b The classification of a new film (for example, PG)
c The winner of a tennis match when Katrina plays Biljana
d The type of public transport that goes to your school
2 a For this spinner, how many outcomes are there in the sample space? See Exercise 11-01
1 2
b Why isn’t each outcome equally likely?
c Which number is most likely? 3
d Which number is least likely to be spun? 5
e Which number has a probability of 25%? 4
3 A die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling: See Exercise 11-02
a a 1? b an odd number? c a number less than 5?
4 A truck carries 325 boxes of exercise books, 210 boxes of rulers, 360 boxes of paper and 145 See Exercise 11-02
boxes of pens. If a box is taken at random from the truck, what is the probability (as a
percentage) that the box contains:
a rulers? b no pens?
c exercise books or paper? d erasers?
5 A jar contains 1 red, 6 yellow, 2 white and 5 black jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at See Exercise 11-03
random, find the probability that it is:
a yellow b white or red c blue d not green
6 Which word best describes an event that has a probability of 0.29? Select the correct answer See Exercise 11-03
A, B, C, or D.
A unlikely B highly probable C almost impossible D good chance
7 Which event below could be described as a certain event? Select the correct answer A, B, C, See Exercise 11-03
or D.
A choosing a 4 from a hat containing the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4
B choosing a red ball from a bag of green balls
C rolling an odd or even number on a die
D a new baby being a girl
8 A coin was tossed 80 times and landed heads 24 times. See Exercise 11-04
a What is the theoretical probability of obtaining a head?
b What is the expected frequency of heads from 80 tosses of a coin? How does the observed
frequency compare to this?
c What is the experimental probability of obtaining a head?
9 Write the complementary event for each of the following events and its probability. See Exercise 11-05
a Choosing a queen from a standard deck of cards.
b Rolling a multiple of 3 on a die.
c Buying the winning ticket out of 550 tickets sold.
10 There are 8 brown marbles, 4 black marbles and 3 white marbles in a bag. One marble is See Exercise 11-05
taken at random from the bag. What is the probability that a marble that is not brown is
selected?

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