NSW Syllabus for the Australian Curriculum Stage Substrand number 26 3 Chance 4 Probability Ee 5.1 Probability Hea 5.2 Probability 5.3 x The symbol x denotes that this substrand is not described in this Stage of the syllabus document.STAGE 3 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY CHANCE 1 OUTCOMES Astudent: > describes and represents mathematical situations in @ varity of ways using mathematical terminology and some conventions MAS-1WM > conducts chance experiments and assigns probabilities as values between 0 and 1 to describe their outcomes MAS-198P CONTENT Students: List outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and represent probabilities of those outcomes using fractions (aciisP116) + use the term ‘probability’ to describe the numerical value that represents the likelihood of an outcome of a chance experiment = + recognise that outcomes are described as ‘equally ikely’ when any one outcome has the same chance of occurring as any other outcome + list all outcomes in chance experiments where each outcome is equally likely to occur + represent probabilities of outcomes of chance experiments using fractions, eg for one throw of a standard six-sided die or for one spin of an eight-sector spinner > determine the likelihood of winning simple games by considering the number of possible ‘outcomes, og in a ‘rock-paper-scissors' game (Problem Solving, Reasoning) fa “Recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1 (acMsPt17) + establish that the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes of any chance experiment is equal to 1 * order commonly used chance words on an interval trom zero (impossible! o one (eran), 29 ‘equally likely’ would be placed at 5 (or 0.5) <= > desoribe events that are impossible and events that are certain (Communicating) ¢ ¢ > desoribe the likelihood of a variety of events as being more or less than a half (or 0.5) and order the events on an interval (Communicating) Background Information Students will need some prior experience in ordering fractions and decimals on a number line from 0 to 4 The probability of chance events occurring can be ordered on a scale from 0 to 1. A probability of 0 describes the probability of an ovent that is impossible. A probabily of + describes the probabilly of an event that is cartain. Events with an equal likelihood of occurring or not Mathematics K~10 Syllabus 257 2eccing can be described es having a probably of (or 0.5 or 60%). Other expressions of probability fall between 0 and 1, eg events described as ‘unlikely’ will have a numerical value somewhere between 0 and 5 (or 0.5 or 50%). ‘The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes of any chance experiment is equal to 1. This can be demonstrated by adding the probabilities ofall of the outcomes of a chance experiment, such as rolling a die. Language Students should be able to communicate using the following language: chance, event, likelihood, certain, possible, likely, unlikely, impossibie, experiment, outcome, probability. The probability of an outcome is the value (between 0 and 1) used to describe the chance that the outcome will occur. A ist of all of the outcomes for a chance experiment is known as the ‘sample space’; however, this term is not introduced until Stage 4. Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 258 3STAGE 3 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY CHANCE 2 OUTCOMES A student: ) describes and represents mathematical situations in a variety of ways using mathematical terminology and some conventions MAS-1WA > selects and applies appropriate problem-solving strategies, including the use of digital technologies, in undertaking investigations WA3-2WM ) gives a valid reason for supporting one possible solution over another MA3-3WM > conducts chance experiments and assigns probabilities as values between 0 and 1 to describe their outcomes MA3-198P CONTENT Students: ‘Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies (ACMSP (46), + use the term ‘frequency’ to describe the number of times a particular outcome occurs in @ chance experiment @ » distinguish between the ‘frequency’ of an outcome and the ‘probability’ of an outcome In a chance experiment (Communicating) + compare the expected frequencies of outcomes of chance experiments with observed frequencies, including where the outcomes are not equally likely » recognise that some random generators have outcomes that are not equally likely and discuss the effect on expected outcomes, eg on this spinner, green is more likely to cour than red or gray or blue BY wom » discuss the ‘fairness’ of simple games involving chance (Communicating, Reasoning) th » explain why observed frequencies of outcomes in chance experiments may differ from expected frequencies (Communicating, Reasoning) 4 # Describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages (acMsP144) + ist the outcomes for chance experiments where the outcomes are not equally likely to occur and assign probabilities to the outcomes using fractions ‘Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 259 4+ use knowledge of equivalent fractions, decimals and percentages to assign probabilties to the lkellnod of outcomes, eg there is a "ive inten’, 5, 60%, 0.5 of one in two" chance of a particular event occurring » use probabilities in realiife contexts, eg My football team has a 50% chance of winning the game’ (Communicating, Reasoning) » design a spinner or label a dio so that a particular outcome is more likely than another and discuss the probabilities of the outcomes (Communicating, Problem Solving) x Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies (acwisP145) + assign expected probabilities to cutcomes in chance experiments with random generators, including digital simulators, and compare the expected probabilities with the observed probebilties after both small and large numbers of trials > dotermine and discuss the differences between the expected probabilities and the ‘observed probabilities after both small and large numbers of trials (Communicating, Reasoning) > exolain what happens to the observed probabilities as the number of trials increases (Communicating, Reasoning) ¢ + use samples to make predictions about a larger ‘population’ from which the sample comes, eg take a random sample of coloured lollies from a bag, calculate the probability of ‘obtaining each colour of lolly when drawing a lolly from the bag, and use these probabilities and the total number of lollies in the bag to pradict the number of each colour of lolly in the bag » discuss whether a prodiction about a larger population, from which a sample comes, would be the same ifa different sample were used (Communicating, Reasoning) @& Background Information Random generators include coins, dice, spinners and digital simulators, As the number of trials in a chance experiment increases, the observed probabilities should became closer in value to the expected probabilities, Refer also to background information in Chance 1, Language ‘Students should be able to communicate using the following language: chance, event, likelihood, equally likely, experiment, outcome, expected outcomes, random, fair, trials, probability, expected probability, observed probability, frequency, expected frequency, observed frequency. The term frequency’ is used in this substrand to describe the number of times a particular ‘outcome occurs in a chance experiment. In Stage 4, students will also use ‘frequency’ to dascribe the number of times a particular data value occurs in a data set. Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 260 S‘STAGE 4 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY PROBABILITY 1 OUTCOMES Astudent: > communicates and connects mathematical ideas using appropriate terminology, dlagrams and symbols MAd-t Wit > applies appropriate mathematical techniques to solve problems MAM-2V¥M ) recognises and explains mathematical relationships using reasoning Masi » represents probabilities of simple and compound events MA4-21SP Related Life Skills outcomes: IMALS-38SP, MALS-39SP CONTENT Students: Construct sample spaces for single-step experiments with equally likely outcomes (AcwsP167) + use the term ‘chance experiment’ when referring to actions such as tossing @ coin, roling a die, or randomly selecting an object from a bag @ + use the term ‘outcome’ to describe a possibie result of a chance experiment and lst all of the possible outcomes for a single-step experiment + use the term 'sample space’ to describe a list of all of the possible outcomes for a chance experiment, eg if a standard six-sided die is rolled once, the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6} + distinguish between equally likely outcomes and outcomes that are not equally likely in single-step chance experiments > describe single-step chance experiments in which the outcomes are equally likely, eq the outcomes for a single toss of a fair coin (Communicating, Reasoning) > deseribe single-step chance experiments in which the outcomes are not equally likely, ‘9g the outcomes for a single roll of a die with six faces labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4 are not ‘equally likely since the outcome '4” js three times mare likely to occur than any other ‘outcome (Communicating, Reasoning) 4 » design a spinner, given the relationships between the likelihood of each outcome, eg design a spinner with three colours, red, white and blue, so that red is twice as likely to occur as blue, and blue is three times more likely to occur than white (Problem Solving) ¢ Assign probabilities to the outcomes of events and determine probebiltes for events (acMsP1es) + se the term ‘event to describe either one outcome or a collection of outcomes in the ‘sample space of a chanoe experiment, eg in the experiment of rolling a standard six-sided die once, obtaining the number ‘tis an ‘event’ and obtaining a number divisible by three is also an event Mathematics #10 Syllabus 314 6> explain the difference between experiments, events, outcomes and the sample space in chance situations (Communicating) @ + assign a probability of 0 to events that are Impossible and a probability of 1 to events that are certain to ocour a > explain the meaning of the probabil (Communicating) 2 + assign probabilities to simple events by reasoning about equally likely outcomes, eg the probabil of randomly drawing @ card of the diamond sult from a standard pack of 52 playing cards is ies 0 and 1 in a given chance situation 2 a * express the probability of an event, given a finite number of equally likely outcomes in the > _ mumber of favourable outcom sample space, as Pievent) = ee nas > interpret and use probabilities expressed as fractions, percentages or decimals (Communicating, Reasoning) 9* + solve probability problems involving single-step experiments using cards, dice, spinners, ete Identify complementary events and use the sum of probabilities to solve problems (ack'sP204) * establish that the sum of the probabilities of all of the possible outcomes of a single-step experiment is 1 * identify and describe the complement of an event, eg the complement of the event ‘roling a 6' when rolling a die is ‘not rolling a 6’ = + establish that the sum ofthe probability of an event and its complement is 1, ie P(event) + P(complement of event) = 1 + calculate the probability of a complementary event using the fact that the sum of the probabilities of compiementary events is 1, eg the probability of ‘rolling a 6' when rolling a 15 dies 2 nerefore the probably of the complementary event, not roling 6 is 1— 57% oe Purpose/Relevance of Substrand Probability is concemed with the level of certainty that a particular event will occur. The higher the probability of an event, the ‘more certain’ or ‘more likely it is that the event will occur, Probability is usad widely by governments and in many fields, including mathematics, statistics, science, business and economics. In everyday situations, probabilities are key to such areas as risk assessment, finance, and the reliability of products such as cars and electronic goods. Itis therefore important across society that probabilities are understood and used appropriately in decision making. Language ‘A simple event has outcomes that are equally likely. In a chance experiment, such as rolling a standard six-sided die once, an event might be one of the outcomes or a collection of the outcomes. For example, an event might be that an odd number is rolled, with the favourable ‘outcomes being a't', a'3' and a's’ [tis important that students lear the correct terminology associated with probability. Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 315 4STAGE 4 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY PROBABILITY 2 OUTCOMES Astudent: > communicates and connects mathematical ideas using appropriate terminology, diagrams and symbols MA4-tWM > applies appropriate mathematical techniques to solve problems MA4-2WM > recognises end explains mathematical relationships using reasoning MA4-3¥/M > represents probabilities of simple and compound events MA4-21SP Related Life Skills outcomes: MALS-28SP, MALS.20SP CONTENT Students: Describe events using language of ‘at least’, exclusive ‘or’ (A or B but not both), inclusive ‘or’ (Aor B or both) and ‘and’ (acwsP208) + recognise the difference between mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events, eg when a die is rolled, ‘rolling an odd number and 'roling an even number’ are mutually exclusive events; however, ‘rolling an even number’ and ‘rolling a 2' are nor-mutually exclusive events ¢ + describe compound events using the following terms: @& x = ‘atleast’, eg rolling a 4, 5 or 6 on a standard six-sided die may be described as rolling ‘at least 4° = ‘at most, eg rolling @ 1, 2, 3 or 4 on a standard six-sided die may be described as rolling ‘at most 4° — ‘not, eg choosing a black card from a standard pack of cards may be described as choosing a card that is ‘not red" — ‘and’, eg choosing a card that is black and @ king means that the card must have both attributes > pose problems that involve the use of these terms, and solve problems posed by others (Communicating, Problem Solving) @ x > describe the effect of the use of ‘and! and ‘or when using Internet search engines (Communicating, Problem Solving) ¢ *+ classify compound events using inclusive ‘or’ and exclusive ‘or, eg ‘choosing a male or a female’ is exclusive as one cannot be bath, whereas ‘choosing a male or someone left- handed’ could imply exclusivity or inclusivity @ « > recognise that the word ‘or’ on its own often needs a qualifier, such as ‘both’ or not both’, to determine inclusivity oF exclusivity (Reasoning) ¢ a Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 316 $Represent events in two-way tables and Venn diagrams and solve related problems (ackis?282) interpret Venn diagrams involving two or three attributes @ » describe regions in Venn diagrams representing mutually exclusive attributes, eg @ Venn diagram representing the languages studied by Year 8 students rnauseee studied by Year 8 (re) ne ‘There are 50 students who study French; 32 students who study Mandarin; 18 students who study neither language; and no student who studies both languages (Communicating, Problem Solving, Reasoning) ¢ > describe individual regions or combinations of regions in Venn diagrams representing non-mutually exclusive attributes, using the language ‘and’, exclusive ‘or, inclusive 'or, ‘neither’ and ‘not, eg a Venn diagram representing the sports played by Year 8 students Sports played by Year 8 peste 25} footbatl “| There are 25 students who play both basketball and football, 46 students who play basketball or football, but not both; 19 students who play neither sport; and 71 students ‘who play basketball or football or both (Communicating, Problem Solving, Reasoning) eS construct Venn diagrams to represent all possible combinations of two attributes from given or collected data x > use given data to calculate missing values in a Venn diagram, eg the number of members that have both attributes or the number of members that have neither attribute (Problem Solving, Reasoning) «> interpret given two-way tables representing non-mutually exclusive attributes @& 4 > describe relationships displayed in two-way tables using the language ‘and’, exclusive ‘or, inclusive ‘or, 'nelther’ and ‘not, eg a table comparing gender and handedness of students in Year 8 Gender compared to handedness of Year 8 students Female! 53 | Male 68 [09 [121 ‘There are 63 male right-handed students, ie 63 students are neither female nor left- handed; there are 114 students who are male or right-handed, or both (Communicating, Problem Solving, Reasoning) construct two-way tables to represent the relationships between attributes @& Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 317 a> use given data to calculate missing values in a two-way table (Problem Solving) + convert between representations of the relationships between two attributes in Venn diagrams and two-way tables, eg ‘Smartphone ownership compared to employment status of Year 10 students oun sna emoloyed| A 68 3 92 Ke ev Background Information Owns smariphone| 8 Does not owr smartphone! «160, 168 | John Venn (1834-1823) was a British mathematician best known for his diagrammatic way of representing sets, and thair unions and intarsections. ‘Students are expected to be able to interpret Venn diagrams involving three attributes; however, they are not expected to construct Venn diagrams involving three attributes. Language ‘A compound event is an event that can be expressed as a combination of simple events, eg drawing a card that is black or a King from a standard set of playing cards, throwing at least § on a standard six-sided die Mathematios K-10 Syllabus io 318STAGE §.1 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY PROBABILITY OUTCOMES Astudent: > uses appropriate terminology, diagrams and symbols in mathematical contexts MAS.1-1\NM ) selects and uses appropriate strategies to solve problems Mas. 1-2WM > provides reasoning to support conclusions that are appropriate to the context MAS.1-3WM > calculates relative frequencies to estimate probabilities of simple and compound events MAS.1-188P Related Life Skills outcomes: MALS-38SP, MALS-308P CONTENT Students: Calculate relative frequencies from given or collected data to estimate probabilities of events: involving ‘and’ or ‘or’ (acMsP226} + repeat a chance experiment a number of times to determine the relative frequencies of ‘outcomes, eg using random number generators such as dice, coins, spinners or digital simulators > recognise randomness in chance situations (Reasoning) 9 » recognise that probabllty estimates become more stable as the number of trials, increases (Reasoning) + identity theoretical probabilities as being the likelihood of outcomes occurring under ideal circumstances @ > explain the relationship between the relative frequency of an event and its theoretical probability (Communicating, Reasoning) aj + predict the probability of an event from experimental data using relative frequencies > apply relative frequency to predict future experimental outcomes (Problem Solving, Reasoning) » design a device to produce a specified relative frequency, eg a four-coloured circular spinner (Problem Solving) s#* Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 337 \|* calculate probabilities of events, including events involving ‘and, ‘or’ and ‘nof’, from data contained in Venn diagrams representing two or three attributes, eg the Venn diagram below represents the sports played by Year 9 students Sports played by Year 9 Ne 63 ~e selects appropriate notations and conventions to communicate mathematical ideas and solutions MAS.2-1WM > interprets mathematical or realsiife situations, systematically applying appropriate strategies to solve problems MA5.2-207M ) constructs arguments to prove and justify results MA5.2-3WM. ) describes and calculates probabilities in multi-step chance experiments MAS.2-17SP Related Life Skills outcomes: MALS-385P, MALS-39SP CONTENT ‘Students: List all outcomes for two-step chance experiments, with and without replacement, using tree diagrams or arrays; assign probabillies to outcomes and determine probabiifties for events, (acmsP225) + sample, with and without replacement, in two-step chance experiments, eg draw two counters from a bag containing three blue, four red and one white counter @ > compare results between an experiment undertaken with replacement and then without replacement (Reasoning) a + record outcomes of two-step chance experiments, with and without replacement, using organised lists, tables and tree diagrams x + caloulate probabilities of simple and compound events in two-step chance experiments, with and without replacement » explain the effect of knowing the result of the first step on the probability of events in two-step chance experiments, with and without replacement (Communicating, Reasoning) a Describe the results of two- and three-step chance experiments, with and without replacement, assign probabilities to outcomes, and determine probabilities of events; investigate the concept of independence (acmsP246) + distinguish informally between dependent and independent events @& » explain the difference between dependent and independent events using appropriate ‘examples (Communicating, Reasoning) ¢ + recognise that for independent events P(A and B) P(A) x PB) 9 + sample, with and without replacement, in three-step chance experiments, eg draw three counters from a bag containing three blue, four red and one white counter Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 362 [3+ record outcomes of three-step chance experiments, with and without replacement, using organised lists, tables and tree diagrams 2 + calculate probabilities of simple and compound events in three-step chance experiments, with and without replacement > use knowledge of complementary events to assist in calculating probabilities of events in multi-step chance experiments (Problem Solving) > evaluate the likelihood of winning a prize in lotteries and other competitions (Problem Solving, Reasoning) x Use the language of 'f... then’, ‘given’, ‘of, ‘knowing that’ to investigate conditional statements and to identi¥y common mistakes in interpreting such language (AciMsP247) + calculate probabilities of events where a condition is given that restricts the sample space, eg given that a number less than 5 has been rolled on a fair six-sided die, calculate the probability that this number was a 3 3 > doscribe the effect of a given condition on the sample space, eg in the above example, the sample space is reduced to {1,2,3,4} (Communicating, Problem Solving, Reasoning) a + critically evaluate conditional statements used in descriptions of chance situations «* @ > describe the validity of conditional statements used in descriptions of chance situations with reference to dependent and independent events, eg explain why if you toss a coin and obtain a head, then the probability of obtaining a head on the next toss remains the ‘same (Communicating, Reasoning) 9 > identity and explain common misconceptions related to chance experiments, eg explain why the statement 'f you obtain a tail on each of four consecutive tosses of a coin, then there is @ greater chance of obtaining a head on the next toss' is incorrect (Reasoning) a Background Information Meteorologists use probability to predict the weather and to communicate thelr predictions, 09 Thoro is a $0% chance of rain tomorrow’. Insurance companies use probebilty to determine premiums, eg the chance of particular age groups having accidents, ‘The mathematical analysis of probability was prompted by the French writer and gambler ‘Antoine Gombaud, the Chevalier de Méré (1607~1684). Over the years, the Chevalier had consistently won money betting on obtaining at least one 6 in four rolls of a fair six-sided die. He felt that he should also win betting on obtaining at least one double 6 in 24 rolls of two fair six- sided dice, but in fact regulary lost. In 1654 he asked his friend Blaise Pascal (1623-1662), the French mathematician and philosopher, to explain why he regularly lost in the second situation. This question led to the famous correspondence between Pascal and the renowned French lawyer and mathematician Pierro de Fermat (1801~1668). Chevaliers losses are explained by the fact that the chance of 5 obtaining at least one 6 in four rolls of a die is 1 — (8) ~~ 51.8% , while the chance of obtaining A 2 at least one double 6 jn 24 rolls of two dice is 1 (3) 49.1%, Language In a chance experiment, such as rolling a fair six-sided dia twice, an event is a collection of outcomes. For instance, an event in this situation might be that the result is 'a sum of 7' or ‘a sum of 10 or more’ Mathematics K-10 Syllabus 363 \4Substrand: | Probability This substrand is not described in Stage 5.3