8 Probability

Getting started

1 There are 6 t-shirts hanging on a washing line. You take one

without looking.

Is each statement true or false?

a It is certain that you will take a shirt with flowers.
b There is no chance that you will take a shirt with spots.
c There is an even chance that you will take a shirt with flowers.
d There is a poor chance that you will take a shirt with spots.
e There is a poor chance that you will take a shirt with stripes.
2 An online random generator is used to flip a coin 50 times.
Here are the outcomes.
Key
h h h t t h t t h t
‘h’ is heads
t h h h t t t t h h
‘t’ is tails
t t t h t h t h h t
h h t t h h t t t h
h t t t t h t t h h

Copy and complete the table to show how many heads and tails
there are.

Tally Total
Heads
Tails

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 8.1 Likelihood

Probability is about understanding the world

and the decisions you make every day. It helps
you to decide what risks to take.
These signs all warn you about risks.
How could you find out what the risk is and
how likely it is to happen?

8.1 Likelihood
We are going to …

• position the likelihood of events on a likelihood scale

• learn about equally likely events.

Probability can help you make decisions about when to do something.

This astronomer needs a clear sky to look at the stars.

certain equally likely even chance impossible

likely outcome unlikely

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 8 Probability

She can use a weather forecast to help her decide when to look at
the stars.

2100 2200 2300 0000 0100 0200 0300 0400 0500

Wed

15º
14º
13º
12º
11º
10º 10º
9º 9º

0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%

When is it likely to be clear?

How likely is it to rain?
What time would be best for studying the stars?

Worked example 1

Draw arrows on the likelihood scale to show the chance of each event happening.
A Rolling a 5 on a 6-sided dice.
B Flipping a coin and getting heads.

impossible unlikely even likely certain

chance

There are six possible outcomes on a 6-sided dice. Work out the chance of rolling
Only one of the outcomes is 5. a 5 on a 6-sided dice.

So rolling a 5 is unlikely.

There are two equally likely possible outcomes Work out the chance of a coin
when flipping a coin. landing on heads.
One of the outcomes is heads.

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 8.1 Likelihood

Continued

So, there is an even chance that the coin lands on

heads.
A B

Draw arrows to show the

impossible unlikely even likely certain chance of each outcome on
chance the likelihood scale.

Exercise 8.1
1 Copy this likelihood scale.

impossible unlikely even likely certain

chance

Draw arrows to show the likelihood of the following events

happening.
a When you roll a dice you will get a 3.
b When you flip a coin it will land on tails.
c It will rain today.
d Write three statements of your own and add them to the
likelihood scale.

Think about how you used the likelihood scale in question 1.

Did you choose events that can be easily positioned on the line?
Do you understand the meaning of all the words on the scale?
Ask your teacher if you are not sure about any words.

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 8 Probability

2 Copy this likelihood scale.

impossible unlikely even likely certain

chance

Look at this spinner. 7

Mark the likelihood of each of these
outcomes on your likelihood scale.
a Scoring an odd number. 9 5

b Scoring an even number.

c Scoring less than 5. 3
d Scoring a number greater than 6.
3 Which two shapes are equally likely to be taken
from this bag?

4 Sofia has this bag of letter tiles.

She takes one tile out of the bag at a time.
She writes the letter, then puts the tile back into the bag.
Copy and complete these sentences
a There are letter tiles.
b of the tiles are the letter E.
c The chance of taking a letter E is E
unlikely / even chance / certain. E E
S T
d It is equally likely that Sofia will take
letter or letter . T M E

e Letter is the most likely to be taken.

5 Write two sentences of your own about the likelihood of
Sofia taking different tiles from the bag in question 4.

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 8.1 Likelihood

Think like a mathematician

Sarah and Lou are playing a game with two coins.

They flip both the coins.
Sarah scores one point if the coins both land heads up.
Lou scores one point if one coin is heads and one
is tails.
No points are scored if the coins both land tails up.
Do you think that Sarah and Lou are equally likely 1p
to win?
Draw a table to record the coin flips.

Tally Total
Sarah’s score
Lou’s score
Flip two coins 50 times and record your results.
Do the results of the coin flips suggest that Sarah and Lou are equally
likely to win the game?
Talk to your partner and teacher about your results and write down
your thoughts about the game using the language of chance.
• You are conjecturing when you form an idea about whether Sarah and Lou are
equally likely to win.
• You are convincing when you explain your results to your partner and teacher.

Read your sentences about chance to your partner.

Does your partner use the language of chance correctly to show
that they understand it?
Talk to your partner about your answers.

Look what I can do!

I can position the likelihood of events on a likelihood scale.

I can say if two events are equally likely.

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 8 Probability

8.2 Experiments and simulations

We are going to …

• carry out experiments and simulations to investigate probability.

Simulations can help us to know the likelihood of an outcome

happening. simulation

One way of using simulations is to program a computer to use data

from previous outcomes to work out what would happen if something
was done thousands of times.
These simulations can try to predict things like whether a goal is likely
to be scored from different positions on a football pitch.

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 8.2 Experiments and simulations

Worked example 2

Marcus wants to simulate whether a cat will have male or female kittens.
He flips a coin. If the coin lands heads up it represents a male kitten.
If the coin lands tails up it represents a female kitten.
Is this an appropriate simulation?

The kittens could be male or female. Describe the likelihood of the real
• The likelihood of a kitten being male is outcomes.
even chance.
• The likelihood of a kitten being female is
even chance.
• It is equally likely that the kittens will be
male or female.

The coin could land on heads or tails. Describe the likelihood of the
• The likelihood of the coin landing on outcomes on the flipped coin.
heads is even chance.
• The likelihood of the coin landing on tails
is even chance.
• It is equally likely that the coin will land
heads or tails.

Answer: Yes, a flipped coin is an appropriate way to simulate whether the

kittens will be male or female because the outcomes are equally likely and
the coin has two equally likely outcomes.

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 8 Probability

Exercise 8.2
1 You are going to do an experiment to investigate the likelihood of
different outcomes when you roll two dice and find the difference
between the two numbers.
a What different outcomes can you get if you roll two dice and
find the difference between the two numbers?
b Do you think that all the outcomes are equally likely?
c Copy the table and complete the first column.

The difference between the two numbers Tally Frequency

d Roll two dice 30 times and record the results in your table.
e Draw a bar chart to show your results.

A bar chart showing the frequency of different

outcomes when I throw two dice and find the
difference between the two numbers
Frequency

The difference between the two numbers

f Do your results suggest that the outcomes are all equally likely?
g What could you do to check?

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 8.2 Experiments and simulations

2 There are five shapes in a bag.

Arun took a shape out of the bag, looked at it and put it back into
the bag. He did this eight times. These are the shapes he saw.

a Write true or false for each statement.

i There was at least one sphere in the bag.
ii There was definitely not a triangular prism in the bag.
iii There might be more than one cube in the bag.
iv There is definitely only one cylinder in the bag.
b Sketch the five shapes that you predict might be in the bag.
c Explain why you chose those five shapes for your prediction.
d What could you do to improve your prediction without looking
into the bag?
3 Rachel programmed a spreadsheet to simulate 50 coin flips.
The spreadsheet creates random numbers from 1 to 3.
Rachel says, ‘The odd numbers represent coin flips that land
on heads.
The even numbers represent coin flips that land on tails.’
Rachel’s spreadsheet list looks like this:

3 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 3
1 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 2
3 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 1
3 1 2 3 2 1 1 3 1 2
1 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 1
a How many even numbers are in Rachel’s list?
b How many odd numbers are in Rachel’s list?
c Explain what is wrong with Rachel’s simulation.
d Suggest a better way to simulate the coin flips using random
numbers.

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 8 Probability

4 The weather forecast says that there is an even chance of rain for
the next 7 days.

Even chance

Sofia made a simulation of the weather using a dice.

Numbers 1, 2 and 3 are rainy days.
Numbers 4, 5 and 6 are dry days.
Sofia rolled the dice 7 times to see what might happen.
These are her results.
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7

a How many rainy days are there in Sofia’s simulation?

b How many dry days are there in Sofia’s simulation?
c Draw your own table and carry out your own simulation of the
weather using Sofia’s rules.
d How many rainy days are there in your simulation?
e How many dry days are there in your simulation?

Think about how you are using the dice to simulate the chance of
rain. The likelihood of rain is an even chance. What other things
could you use to simulate an even chance?

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 8.2 Experiments and simulations

Think like a mathematician

Use computer software to generate 100 random numbers from 1 to 20.

a How many times does the number 1 appear in the list?
b How many numbers in the list are greater than 10?
c How many numbers in the list are less than 6?
d Generate another set of 100 random numbers from 1 to 20.
Answer questions a, b and c using the 100 new numbers.
e Zara says that the numbers 1 to 20 are all equally likely so
each number will appear the same number of times in the list.
Explain why Zara is wrong.
Look at your partner’s explanation.
Did they write about the results of their simulation?
Did they write about how the more random numbers the computer produces, the
closer the results will be to showing that the numbers are all equally likely?

• You are characterising when you describe the sets of random numbers.
• You are convincing when you explain why Zara is wrong.

Look what I can do!

I can carry out experiments and simulations to investigate probability.

Check your progress

1 Draw a likelihood scale.

impossible unlikely even likely certain

chance

Look at the picture of the pile of sweets. Draw arrows on the

scale to show the likelihood of the following events happening.
a Taking a strawberry sweet.
b Taking an orange sweet.
c Taking a banana sweet.

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8 Probability
8.1 Likelihood
Worked example 1 certain likely
Describe the likelihood of these outcomes. equally likely outcome
A Taking a white ball out of this bag. even chance unlikely
impossible

B Rolling an even number on a 6-sided dice.

Which outcome is more likely?

A There are 6 balls. Work out how likely you

1 ball is white. are to take a white ball out
of the bag.
Most of the balls are not white.
Taking a white ball is unlikely.

B There are 6 possible outcomes when the dice is rolled. Work out how likely you
3 of the outcomes are even numbers. are to roll an even number
on a 6-sided dice.
3 of the outcomes are not even numbers.
There is the same chance of rolling an even number
as not rolling an even number.
There is an even chance of rolling an even number.

Answer: Rolling an even number on a 6-sided dice is more

likely than taking a white ball out of the bag.

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 8 Probability

Exercise 8.1
Focus
1 Label the likelihood scale with these words.
likely  certain  impossible  even chance  unlikely

2 Arun has a bag with only red apples in it. Tip

Complete the sentences.
In question 3, look
for spinners where
The likelihood of Arun taking a red apple is .
the chance of
spinning a 1 is the
The likelihood of Arun taking a green apple is .
same as the chance
3 Draw a ring around the spinners where you are equally of spinning a 2.
likely to spin a 1 or a 2.
A B C
1
1 2
1 2
2
3

D E F
1 1 1 2
3
1 2
2 3 2
3

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 8.1 Likelihood

Practice
4 Draw a likelihood scale using the words ‘impossible’, ‘unlikely’,
‘even chance’, ‘likely’ and ‘certain’. Label it with arrows to show
the likelihood of each outcome A to F when you spin this spinner.

10

60 20

50 30

40

A A multiple of 10. B A number greater than 35.

C An even number. D A number less than 5.
E A number between 15 and 100. F A multiple of 3.

5 Look at the shapes in this bag.

Imagine you take a shape out of the bag.
Draw a ring around True or False for each statement.

a It is likely that the shape is a triangle. True / False

b It is impossible that the shape will be a pentagon. True / False

c There is an even chance of taking a square. True / False

d Taking a hexagon or a circle is equally likely. True / False

e Taking a square is more likely than taking a triangle. True / False

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 8 Probability

6 Play this game 10 times.

Put 3 black counters and 2 white counters into a bag.
Pull a counter out of the bag without looking.
If the counter is black move one place to the right.
If the counter is white move one place to the left.
Put the counter back into the bag.
Take counters until you reach ‘WIN’ or ‘LOSE’.

LOSE Start WIN

Record your results in the table.

Tally Frequency

Win

Lose

Do you think that winning and losing are equally likely? Why?

Challenge
7 Use this space to design and colour or label a
spinner that matches these statements.
• It is not equally likely that the spinner
will land on green or blue.
• It is not impossible for the spinner to
land on orange.
• There is an even chance of spinning red.
• It is equally likely that the spinner will
land on yellow or brown.
• It is unlikely that the spinner will land on pink.

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 8.1 Likelihood

8 Marcus says that the likelihood of this spinner landing on 1 is an

even chance because all the numbers are equally likely.
Marcus has made a mistake.
What is wrong with Marcus’s statement?
Explain your answer.

3 1

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 8 Probability

8.2 Experiments and simulations

Worked example 2
simulation
Carry out an experiment to investigate the likelihood of rolling
a six on a six-sided dice.

I think that rolling a six is unlikely. Write a prediction of what

might happen.
Draw a table to collect
Outcome Tally Frequency the data.
Not six IIII IIII 26 Roll the dice many times
and record the outcomes in
IIII IIII
the table.
IIII I

Six IIII 4

A bar chart showing the outcomes of rolling a dice You could display the data in
30 a graph.
25
20
Frequency

15
10
5
0
Not six Six

The result suggests that rolling a six is unlikely, which Compare the result to your
is what I predicted. I should roll the dice more times prediction.
to check.

Answer: Rolling a 6 is unlikely.

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 8.2 Experiments and simulations

Exercise 8.2
Focus
1 You are going to flip a coin 100 times and record if it lands on heads or tails.
a Predict your results.

I think that

b Flip the coin 100 times and record the results in the table.

Outcome Tally Frequency

Heads

Tails

Total 100

c Complete the bar chart with your results.

70
65
60
55
50
45
Number of flips

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Heads Tails
Outcome

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 8 Probability

d Do your results agree with your prediction?

e Write a sentence about what you have found out.

2 Mia has a bag of letter tiles.

She takes one tile out of the bag at a time.
She writes the letter, then puts the tile back into the bag.
These are the letters she takes.
D  A  B  A  A  A  B  D  B
Draw a ring around the bags that Mia could be using.
A B C

D
A A A A B A
D
D A A B A A
A A

D E

C
D C D
A B A C
B D D
B A C B B
D

Explain why Mia could not be using bag E.

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 8.2 Experiments and simulations

Practice
3 Marcus says, ‘There is an even
chance of flipping a head.
My first flip was a head so my
next flip must be a tail.’
Is Marcus correct? Explain your answer.

4 Draw symbols on each of these 8 cards so that:

• there is an even chance of choosing a card with a square on it
• taking a card with a triangle or a card with a circle are equally likely.

Make your set of 8 cards using card or paper.

Take and replace a card 30 times and record the outcomes
in the box.

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 8 Probability

Write two sentences about the outcomes of your experiment.

Challenge
5 A bag contains 5 coloured balls.
Hari takes a ball from the bag. He writes down the colour then
replaces the ball into the bag.
These are the colours of the balls he took from the bag.
Red, red, yellow, yellow, yellow, red, green, red, red, green,
yellow, red.
a Draw coloured balls in the bag to show what you
predict is in Hari’s bag.
b Explain your prediction.

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 8.2 Experiments and simulations

6 Here is a treasure chest full of coins.

There are bronze, silver and gold coins.
Each type of coin is equally likely to be taken from the chest.
Imagine taking one coin at a time from the chest.
Design a spinner to simulate which type of coin is taken from
the treasure chest.
Using a pencil and a paper clip, spin your spinner 30 times
to simulate taking 30 coins from the treasure chest.
Record your results.

Look at the results of your simulation.

a How many bronze coins did you take?

b How many silver coins did you take?

c How many gold coins did you take?

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 8 Probability

d In your simulation did you take an equal

number of bronze, silver and gold coins?
e Would you expect to take an equal number of bronze,
silver and gold coins? Explain your answer.

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Probability: Candy jar
Data and Graphing Worksheet

Answer the probability questions for the candies jar shown

below.

1. What is the probability of picking an orange candy? _________

2. What is the probability of picking a yellow candy? _________
3. What is the probability of picking a blue candy? _________
4. What is the probability of picking a green candy? _________
5. Which candy is least likely to be picked at random? _________
6. What is the probability of picking either a yellow
candy or a green candy? _________
7. What is the probability of picking either an orange
candy or a blue candy? _________
8. Would it be more likely to pick an orange candy or
yellow candy? _________
Probability: School bag
Data and Graphing Worksheet

Inside this school bag are the pictured objects.

1. What is the probability of pulling a pencil from the bag? ______

2. What is the probability of pulling a crayon from the
bag? ______
3. What is the probability of pulling a pen from the bag? ______
4. What is the probability of pulling either a pen or a
crayon from the bag? ______
5. What is the probability of pulling either a pencil or a
pen out of the bag? ______
6. Which object is least likely to be pulled out of the bag? ______
7. Which object has the highest possibility of being pulled
out of the bag? ______
8. Does a pencil or a crayon have a higher probability of
being pulled out? ______
Probability: Fair die
Data and Graphing Worksheet

Study the problem and answer the probability questions.

Write your answer as a fraction and simplify if possible.

A fair die is tossed.

Remember: 1 is not a
prime number

1. What is the probability of rolling a 3? _________

2. What is the probability of rolling more than 4? _________

3. What is the probability of rolling less than 5? _________

4. What is the probability of rolling an even number? _________

5. What is the probability of rolling an odd number? _________

6. What is the probability of rolling a prime number? _________

7. What is the probability of rolling a 3 or a 6? _________

8. What is the probability of rolling an even prime

number? _________
Probability: Tickets
Data and Graphing Worksheet

Study the problem and answer the probability questions.

Write your answer as a fraction and simplify if possible.

Raffle tickets are numbered

from 1-40. A ticket is picked
at random.

1. What is the probability of picking an even number? _________

2. What is the probability of picking a number greater
than 20? _________
3. What is the probability of picking a number less
than 20? _________
4. What is the probability of picking numbers greater
than 25 but less than 35? _________
5. What is the probability of picking a multiple of 5? _________
6. What is the probability of picking a number ending
with 0? _________
7. What is the probability of picking the number 7? _________

8. What is the probability of picking one of the

numbers 3 or 13 or 23? _________