Supply Response

A structural time series model is used to estimate the supply response function for broiler production in the United States using quarterly data and a structural time series model. This model has the advantage of expressing trend and seasonal elements as stochastic components, allowing a dynamic interpretation of the results and improving the forecast capabilities of the model. The results of the estimation indicate the continued importance of feed costs to poultry production and of technology as expressed by the stochastic trend variable. However, seasonal influences appear to have become less important, since the seasonal component was not statistically significant.

This paper argues that the contribution of trade preferences to economic development needs to be reappraised in light of the growth of globalised trade in manufactures. Trade preferences may be able to act as a catalyst for manufacturing exports, leading to rapid growth in exports and employment. To do so, preferences need to be designed to be consistent with international

During the past two decades, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa undertook extensive economic reforms to reduce the role of the government and increase the role of the market in their economies. Because of the importance of the agricultural sector in the region, agricultural market reforms occupied a central place in these liberalization efforts. Agricultural reforms included the removal of price controls, deregulation of agricultural marketing, closure of state-owned enterprises that monopolized agricultural trade, and changes in the foreign exchange market to provide greater incentives for exports. The expectation was that improving price incentives for farmers and reducing government intervention in the agricultural sector would be enough to generate a supply response and allow well-functioning markets to emerge quickly. Almost two decades later, the general consensus is that the reform programs in Sub-Saharan Africa have not met expectations. At the beginning of the 21st centur...

The purpose of this study is to predict empirically the poverty impact in Indonesia of the reduction of agricultural subsidies in OECD countries agreed at the WTO meeting in July 2004 (known as the WTO July Package), and the focus of the study is on rice. Methodologically, this study uses partial equilibrium techniques. It calculates the first-order effects with quantities

In Tunisia, the apples occupy a significant place on the sector of perennial crops. This crop covered expanded areas during the eighties following an extensive use of efficient water equipments. However, significant seasonal and annual variation of fruit supplies in the domestic market were frequently encountered affecting prices at both wholesale and consumption levels. To study the supply response of

A growth accounting method is used to analyze the sources of growth in China's rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, the four most important crops in China's grain sector, during 1978-97. A large TFP contribution to growth in grain production is found in the period immediately following China's rural economic reform (1978-85). In recent years the growth rate of TFP falls

The Ghana cocoa market has been extensively liberalised over the period since the mid 1980s. Three issues have been prominent in microeconomic research on the effects of liberalisation on agriculture. The first has been the size of any supply response, the second has been the effect on producers of reduced subsidies on inputs, and the third whether innovation has occurred.

Rich countries use a combination of domestic market interventions and border protection or export subsidies as a part of their domestic policies. Developed countries such as the United States and the European Union (EU) resort to trade distorting policies to make their crop more competitive both groups maintain high domestic prices for producers, stimulate production, and thus distort prices in

Crude oil prices have trended up since the end of the 1990s, peaking at a historic high in mid-2008 that was followed by a steep price correction with a subsequent rebound. This paper considers major forces behind the evolution of the oil price, using a simple model of supply and demand elasticities as a benchmark, highlights implications for inflation and economic activity and draws some conclusions for macroeconomic policy. The analysis suggests that the run-up in crude oil prices since 2003 was due to both vigorous oil demand growth by emerging markets and, from the middle of the decade onward, a weaker than expected oil supply response to rising prices. Prices are unlikely to fall back to levels seen in the first years of the decade either over the short or medium term. Évolution récente du prix du pétrole : Facteurs explicatifs et questions de politiques économiques Les prix du pétrole brut ont crû régulièrement depuis la fin des années 90, jusqu’à atteindre un plus haut histor...

A structural time series model is used to estimate the supply response function for broiler production in the United States using quarterly data and a structural time series model. This model has the advantage of expressing trend and seasonal elements as stochastic components, allowing a dynamic interpretation of the results and improving the forecast capabilities of the model. The results of the estimation indicate the continued importance of feed costs to poultry production and of technology as expressed by the stochastic trend variable. However, seasonal influences appear to have become less important, since the seasonal component was not statistically significant. The estimation of supply response for agricultural products requires a thorough understanding of the biological cycle involved in production. The speci-fication of a valid supply model does not only in-volve good statistical properties; the model must also be in agreement with the postulates of eco-nomic theory within ...

In the diversity of exchange rate regimes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in the 1980s, there was a trend toward more flexible regimes and smaller parallels markets. How particular exchange rate arrangements affect such factors as output supply cannot be determined for ...

Advertising without supply control in the U.S. orange juice industry illustrates the import dimension of the free rider problem. Estimates of supply response to advertising are offered for "Florida-grown" orange juice, as well as for U.S. orange juice imports into both Florida and other U.S. ports.