Earth system

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing of land-surface temperature (LST) provides valuable information about the sub-surface moisture status required for estimating evapotranspiration (ET) and detecting the onset and severity of drought. While empirical indices measuring anomalies in LST and vegetation amount (e.g., as quantified by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) have demonstrated utility in monitoring ET and drought conditions over large areas, they may provide ambiguous results when other factors (e.g., air temperature, advection) are affecting plant functioning. A more physically based interpretation of LST and NDVI and their relationship to sub-surface moisture conditions can be obtained with a surface energy balance model driven by TIR remote sensing. The Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model is a multi-sensor TIR approach to ET mapping, coupling a two-source (soil + canopy) land-surface model with an atmospheric boundary layer model in time-differencing mode to routinely and robustly map daily fluxes at continental scales and 5 to 10-km resolution using thermal band imagery and insolation estimates from geostationary satellites. A related algorithm (DisALEXI) spatially disaggregates ALEXI fluxes down to finer spatial scales using moderate resolution TIR imagery from polar orbiting satellites. An overview of this modeling approach is presented, along with strategies for fusing information from multiple satellite platforms and wavebands to map daily ET down to resolutions on the order of 10 m. The ALEXI/DisALEXI model has potential for global applications by integrating data from multiple geostationary meteorological satellite systems, such as the US Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, the European Meteosat satellites, the Chinese Fen-yung 2B series, and the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellites. Work is underway to further evaluate multi-scale ALEXI implementations over the US, Europe, Africa and other continents with geostationary satellite coverage.

The Mylliem granitoids of the Meghalaya Plateau, northeastern India, represent one of the disharmonic Neoproterozoic igneous plutons, which are intrusive into low-grade Shillong Group of metasediments. Field studies indicate that the Mylliem granitoids cover an area of about 40 km2 and is characterized by development of variable attitude of primary foliations mostly marked along the margin of the pluton. Xenoliths of both Shillong Group of metasediments and mafic rocks have been found to occur within Mylliem granitoids. Structural study of the primary foliation is suggestive of funnel-shaped intrusion of Mylliem granitoids with no appreciable evidence of shearing. Petrographically, Mylliem granitoids are characterized by pink to white phenocrysts of prismatic microcline/perthite and lath-shaped plagioclase (An20–An29). Groundmass material is characterized by quartz, microcline, plagioclase, muscovite and biotite. Sphene and apatite occur as accessory minerals. Petrographically Mylliem granitoids have been discriminated as granite and granodiorite according to IUGS system of classification. Critical evaluation of geochemical data and variation trends of major oxides/trace elements suggests a significant role of fractional crystallization in the evolution of Mylliem pluton. Th/U ratios (3.22–6.77) indicate a relatively higher abundance of Th over U. Chondrite-normalized REE diagram characteristically shows an enriched LREE pattern and prominent negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.16–0.42) indicating the significant role of plagioclase fractionation from the parent magma. An overall strong REE fractionation pattern has been envisaged for Mylliem granitoids. The strong REE fractionation of the Mylliem granitoids is depicted by (Ce/Yb)N values, which show a range of 1.39 to 1.65. The aluminium saturation index (ASI) (ranging from 1.0 to 1.3), A/CNK ratios (ranging from 1.4 to 2.11) and A/NK ratios (ranging from 1.75 to 2.43) provide evidences for the peraluminous, S-type nature of the Mylliem granitoids. The peraluminous, S-type character is further supported by geochemical parameters such as Fe* and MALI (modified alkali lime index). Normative corundum > 1.0 wt.% is suggestive of the S-type nature of Mylliem granitoids. This is indicative of parent melt-extraction from metasedimentary source rocks by partial melting. Distinct geochemical parameters suggest a post-orogenic tectonic environment for the Mylliem granitoids. The peraluminous, calc-alkalic to alkali-calcic, post-orogenic Mylliem granitoids are geochemically correlatable with the post-orogenic Caledonian granitoids of Ireland and Britain.

Current insurer responses to anthropogenic climate change are generally adaptive and weakly mitigative rather than strongly mitigative. In this chapter, we argue successful insurance system adaptation to anthropogenic climate change depends on returning the climate to a stable, familiar and relatively predictable state. Effective mitigation is therefore a necessary precondition for successful longer-term insurance system adaptation to climate change. To make this argument, we highlight important ways the Earth system, the global economy and insurance are all inter-connected.

The Samchampi-Samteran alkaline complex occurs as a plug-like pluton within the Precambrian granite gneisses of Mikir Hills, Assam, northeastern India and it is genetically related to Sylhet Traps. The intrusive complex is marked by dominant development of syenite within which ijolitemelteigite suite of rocks is emplaced with an arcuate outcrop pattern. Inliers of alkali pyroxenite and alkali gabbro occur within this ijolite-melteigite suite of rocks. The pluton is also traversed by younger intrusives of nepheline syenite and carbonatite. Development of sporadic, lumpy magnetite ore bodies is also recorded within the pluton. Petrographic details of the constituent lithomembers of the pluton have been presented following standard nomenclatorial rules. Overall pyroxene compositions range from diopside to aegirine augite while alkali feldspars are typically orthoclase and plagioclase in syenite corresponds to oligoclase species. Phase chemistry of nepheline is suggestive of Na-rich alkaline character of the complex. Biotite compositions are typically restricted to a uniform compositional range and they belong to ‘biotite’ field in the relevant classification scheme. Garnets (developed in syenite and melteigite) typically tend to be Ti-rich andradite, which on a closer scan can be further designated as melanites. Opaque minerals mostly correspond to magnetite. Use of Lindsley’s pyroxene thermometric method suggests an equilibration temperature from ∼450°–600°C for melteigite/alkali gabbro and ∼400°C for syenite. Critical assessment of other thermometric methods reveals a temperature of equilibration of ∼700°–1350°C for ijolite-melteigite suite of rocks in contrast to a relatively lower equilibration temperature of ∼600°C for syenite. Geobarometric data based on pyroxene chemistry yield an equilibration pressure of 5.32–7.72 kb for ijolite, melteigite, alkali pyroxenite, alkali gabbro and nepheline syenite. The dominant syenite member of the intrusive plug records a much higher (∼11 kb) equilibration pressure indicating a deeper level of intrusion. Major oxide variations of constituent lithomembers with respect to differentiation index (D.I.) corroborate a normal magmatic differentiation. A prominent role of liquid immiscibility is envisaged from field geological, petrographic and petrochemical evidences. Tectonic discrimination diagrams involving clinopyroxene chemistry strongly suggest within plate alkaline affinity for the parental magma which is in conformity with the regional plume tectonics.

The paper investigates the ionospheric variations before some large earthquakes that occurred during 2004-2007 in Sumatra using GPS and CHAMP data. The TEC shows the occurrence of positive and negative anomalies detected within a few hours to 6 days before the earthquakes. These anomalies mostly occur during the daytime hours between 4 and 17 LT. The TEC anomalies are mostly consistent with the CHAMP satellite electron density data. The electron density analysis over the 28 March 2005 earthquake epicenter shows that an equatorial anomaly modification took place a few days before the event. The modification took shape in the form of crest amplification during the daytime. The comparison between the TEC and electron density measurements during very quiet geomagnetic conditions is shown to be a useful indicator of a forthcoming earthquake.

Within the framework of the SCHEMA FP6 EC co-funded project (<a href="http://www.schemaproject.org" target=_blank>http://www.schemaproject.org</a>), we have identified the sources of errors/uncertainties that can be introduced at several steps of the damage assessment process, from post-disaster field measures up to hazard and damages maps production. Errors, for instance, are introduced when collecting post-disaster observations owing to different types of instruments/methods, water marks considered, tide correction, etc.: in extreme cases, differences of meters can be found between water heights data published by different teams for the same locations. Much uncertainty comes from difficulties in identifying and characterizing the potential tsunami sources and from numerical modelling. Moreover, the resolution of the employed Digital Terrain Models can noticeably affect the predicted inundation extent. We have also verified that the consistency of the computations on the long term varies sensitively depending on the code, raising the problem of results reliability for emergency management in dangerous coasts exposed to repeated waves. In addition, damage assessment is performed using damage functions linking the mean damage level on buildings with the maximum water elevation measured in the field without considering other tsunami parameters such as stream velocity. Finally, we examined uncertainties introduced in hazard and vulnerability mapping due to cartographic processing.

First time observations of spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) at Mohal (31.9°N, 77.11°E; altitude 1154 m amsl) in the Kullu valley, located in the northwestern Indian Himalayan region, have been carried out during Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB), as a part of the Indian Space Research Organisation-Geosphere Biosphere Program (ISRO-GBP). AODs at six wavelengths are obtained using Microtops-II Sunphotometer and Ozonometer. The monthly mean values of AOD at 500 nm are found to be 0.27 ± 0.04 and 0.24 ± 0.02 during March and April, 2006 respectively. However, their monthly mean values are 0.33 ± 0.04 at 380 nm and 0.20 ± 0.03 nm at 870 nm during March 2006 and 0.31 ± 0.3 at 380 nm and 0.17 ± 0.2 at 870 nm during April 2006, showing a gradual decrease in AOD with wavelength. The Ångstrom wavelength exponent ‘α’ had a mean value of 0.72 ± 0.05, implying reduced dominance of fine particles. Further, the afternoon AOD values are higher as compared to forenoon values by ∼ 33.0% during March and by ∼ 9.0% during April 2006 and are attributed to the pollutant lifted up from the valley by the evolving boundary layer. Besides the long-range transportation of aerosol particles by airmass from the Great Sahara and the Thar Desert regions to the observing site, the high values of AODs have also been influenced by biomass burning and frequent incidents of forest fire at local levels.

We present Top-kriging, or topological kriging, as a method for estimating streamflow-related variables in ungauged catchments. It takes both the area and the nested nature of catchments into account. The main appeal of the method is that it is a best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) adapted for the case of stream networks without any additional assumptions. The concept is built on the work of Sauquet et al. (2000) and extends it in a number of ways. We test the method for the case of the specific 100-year flood for two Austrian regions. The method provides more plausible and, indeed, more accurate estimates than Ordinary Kriging. For the variable of interest, Top-kriging also provides estimates of the uncertainty. On the main stream the estimated uncertainties are smallest and they gradually increase as one moves towards the headwaters. The method as presented here is able to exploit the information contained in short records by accounting for the uncertainty of each gauge. We suggest that Top-kriging can be used for spatially interpolating a range of streamflow-related variables including mean annual discharge, flood characteristics, low flow characteristics, concentrations, turbidity and stream temperature.