ENSO

This study aims to find a clear relation between ENSO-IOD events combination and seasonal rainfall variability. Monthly rainfall data from 21 meteorology stations over Indonesia during 1970 – 2013 was used in this study. Monthly rainfall data was historically analysed in respect to its long term average to find out local response to the ENSO and IOD. It was observed that regions with monsoonal rainfall type were affected clearly by El Niño combined IOD positive or neutral especially in the dry season which is shown by negative anomaly e.g. Lampung, Banjarbaru, Ketapang, Siantan, Cilacap, Semarang, Karangploso, Ngurah Rai, Lombok, Kayuwatu, Bau-bau, Majene and Merauke. Paloh in contrast, showed no response to El Niño-La Niña. The areas with equatorial rainfall type, on the other hand, were affected with lower signal. This study found that Kenten, Jambi, and Sampali more affected by IOD than El Niño-La Niña while Ternate more affected by El Niño-La Niña. Sicincin was not affected by both El Niño-La Niña and IOD. Otherwise Siantan was affected by both El Niño-La Niña and IOD. Considering the upcoming 2014 El Niño event, this study suggests that there will be decreasing in rainfall over regions with monsoonal rainfall type, Ternate, and Siantan by approximately, 20-50% of its normal.

This is an advance preview of sections of my principal anthropological study/monograph of personhood, environment and climate change in the Torres Islands. This is the extended version in Spanish, of which a more compact version in English is currently in preparation for submission to an academic publisher.

The study aimed at elucidating the possible relationship  between the complex, cyclical variations in solar/sunspot activity (external forcing) and its effect on the global
terrestrial vegetation behavior, as shown in the multitemporal (1982-1999) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. It also sought to reveal the solar signal that is postulated to be latent in multitemporal NDVI data.
Further, the research also aimed at establishing the relationship between internal forcings, mainly multitemporal climatic phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and  multitemporal NDVI.
Pre-processing techniques for noise removal in satellite data were applied. These consisted of the one-dimensional Polynomial Least Squares Operation (PoLeS) for the
reconstruction and estimation of annual NDVI phenological curve; the Two-dimensional Polynomial Least Squares Operation (PoLeS) for noise removal in satellite data; and the application of Singular Spectrum Analyses (SSA) also for the reconstruction and estimation of the annual NDVI  phenological curve. Advanced and novel time-series spectral analysis techniques (Power Spectrum) namely, the Blackman-Tukey (BT), Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA), were applied on time series NDVI, climatic, and solar data, to extract latent information and characterize the data by their temporal power spectral curves. Multitemporal NOAA-AVHRR NDVI consisting of continental datasets of
Africa, South America, Australia and northern boreal datasets, were pre-processed using the Two-dimensional PoLeS, and analyzed using power spectrum techniques.
Temporal spectral analyses on and correlations between NDVI and several multitemporal climatic/oceanographic and extra-terrestrial (solar) phenomena were conducted, namely, the PDO, the ENSO, Zurich Sunspot counts, and reconstructed, top of the atmosphere phototosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Low frequency, decadal oscillations were observed in the NDVI datasets and in a variety of climatic phenomena, hinting both internal and possible external modulation or forcing. Significant decadal-scale, low frequency coherency between multitemporal NDVI
(termed in this context as, “Terrestrial Decadal Oscillations” or the TDO which has never been described in scientific literature) and in all climatic, as well as solar phenomena have been observed. These coherent signals are centered at frequencies of around ~9.259 years (~0.009 cycles/month) which may be a possible evidence for strong insolation (changes in the duration and intensity of solar radiation) of the global climate.

The peculiar and seemingly ubiquitous decadal periodicity can be seen in other environmental proxies, and all seem to point to a common solar forcing origin. Further, the results of this study corroborates earlier findings of linked, internal
modulation of terrestrial vegetation behavior by various oceanographic and climatic  phenomena, as well as externally and possibly, by some form of solar forcing.

Menurut (Kailaku 2009) ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) merupakan salah satu bentuk penyimpangan iklim di Samudera Pasifik yang ditandai dengan kenaikan suhu permukaan laut (SPL) di daerah katulistiwa bagian Tengah dan Timur. Fenomena tersebut memainkan peranan penting terhadap variasi iklim tahunan. Pengaruh ENSO sangat terasa di beberapa wilayah Indonesia yang ditandai dengan jumlah curah hujan lebih kecil dalam tahun ENSO dibandingkan dengan pra dan pasca ENSO, sehingga dapat menyebabkan musim kemarau lebih panjang. Selain dapat mempengaruhi tingginya curah hujan, kejadian El-Nino juga berpengaruh terhadap masuknya musim kemarau.

The Patos Lagoon estuary (PLE; BR-LTER Site 8; approx. 1,000 km2),
located in the extreme south of the Patos Lagoon (32 ° 00 ‘S, 52 ° 05’ W) has a high biological productivity, ecological complexity, and great economic importance due
to harbor and industrial activities in the region. In this chapter we present a synthesis about the hydrological and biological variability in the PLE and its relationwith the natural and anthropogenic impacts based on the data obtaind continuosly and sistematically for more than ten years. The time series analysis of historical data (since 1947) of river discharge, intensity and direction of the winds, salinity and the water level shows that the main factors that influence the hydrology of PLE in the seasonal and interannual scales, as well as longer periods, are the rainfall
regime and winds, emphasizing the large impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on the hydrodynamics of this environment. In periods of El Niño, the heavy rains in southern Brazil and increased river discharge affect all biotic components, from the marshes, submerged vegetation, benthic macroinvertebrates, plankton organisms (phyto-, zoo-and ichthyoplankton) to the fish. The human impacts such as the construction of jetties, dredging of navigation channels, input of domestic and industrial effluents, led to profound changes in the PLE, as for example the
expansion of plant species with low tolerance to high salinity. Moreover, changes in patterns of composition, distribution and recruitment of molluscs, crustaceans, fish eggs and larvae are directly related to the change in hydrology in the region, bioinvasion and overexploitation of fishing resources. The long-term study in the estuary of Patos Lagoon has proved fundamental to understand the complexity
and environmental responses of this environment in relation to natural and anthropogenic impacts. This knowledge is necessary for the sustainability and maintenance
of this ecosystem, as well as to improve the socio-economic conditions of the communities that live and depend on the estuarine environment.

El presente trabajo tiene el objetivo académico de difundir los resultados de dos investigaciones relacionadas a la influencia del Fenómeno El Niño (ENOS) sobre las precipitaciones en territorio peruano! Estos analisis se basan en el empleo de diversos #ndices capaces de interpretar la variabilidad de este fenómeno oceanico-atmosférico incluyendo la perspectiva clasica, los nuevos enfoques relacionados al cambio climatico y las metodologias recientes para el analisis de series no estacionarias. Se enfatizan los eventos de precipitación que acontecen en la costa de Norte a Centro y se muestran los resultados para otras regiones del Peru. Se identifican las limitaciones que representa la complejidad del estudio del ENOS y se recomiendan los indices representativos para su aplicación en la diversidad de estudios multidisciplinarios y proyectos de ingenieria.

Paleoclimatic changes and their influence on cultural development in the southern Central Anden Area

Until recently, the environmental history of the entire Central Andes was thought to be uniform. New insights about cultural dynamics show a recurrent pattern of boom and decline, coincident to regional changes in environmental favorability, which was out-of-phase. Remote palaeoclimatic proxy data from the tropics show that these changes were triggered by ENSO variability. El Niño-like conditions and an enhanced South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) led to moisture transport to the Titicaca region, whereas La Niña-like conditions and a weak SASM were the prerequisites for drought around lake Titicaca and enhanced rainfall in the Palpa-Laramate region further north, supporting its lowland oases. This seesaw occurred several times since the Mid-Holocene, pointing to a general underlying mechanism of regional impacts of the superimposed ENSO system.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) merupakan salah satu bentuk penyimpangan iklim di Samudera Pasifik yang ditandai dengan kenaikan suhu permukaan laut (SPL) di daerah katulistiwa bagian Tengah dan Timur (Kailaku 2009). Fenomena tersebut memainkan peranan penting terhadap variasi iklim tahunan. Pengaruh ENSO sangat terasa di beberapa wilayah Indonesia yang ditandai dengan jumlah curah hujan lebih kecil dalam tahun ENSO dibandingkan dengan pra dan pasca ENSO, sehingga dapat menyebabkan musim kemarau lebih panjang. Selain dapat mempengaruhi tingginya curah hujan, kejadian El-Nino juga berpengaruh terhadap masuknya musim kemarau. El-Nino biasanya diikuti dengan penurunan curah hujan dan peningkatan suhu udara, sedangkan kejadian La-Nina merangsang kenaikan curah hujan di atas curah hujan normal (Irawan 2006). Pernyataan tersebut diperkuat dengan pendapat menurut Fox (2000) bahwa El Nino dan La Nina merupakan anomali iklim global.

High-elevation tropical grassland systems, called Páramo, provide essential ecosystem services such as water storage and supply for surrounding and lowland areas. Páramo systems are threatened by climate and land use changes. Rainfall generation processes and moisture transport pathways influencing precipitation in the Páramo are poorly understood but needed to estimate the impact of these changes, particularly during El Niño conditions, which largely affect hydrometeorological conditions in tropical regions. To fill this knowledge gap, we present a stable isotope analysis of rainfall samples collected on a daily to weekly basis between January 2015 and May 2016 during the strongest El Niño event recorded in history (2014-2016) in two Páramo regions of Central America (Chirripó, Costa Rica) and the northern Andes (Cajas, south Ecuador). Isotopic compositions were used to identify how rainfall generation processes (convective and orographic) change seasonally at each study site. Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) air mass back trajectory analysis was used to identify preferential moisture transport pathways to each Páramo site. Our results show the strong influence of northeast trade winds to transport moisture from the Caribbean Sea to Chirripó and the South American low-level jet to transport moisture from the Amazon forest to Cajas. These moisture contributions were also related to the formation of convective rainfall associated with the passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over Costa Rica and Ecuador during the wetter seasons and to orographic precipitation during the transition and drier seasons. Our findings provide essential baseline information for further research applications of water stable isotopes as tracers of rainfall generation processes and transport in the Páramo and other montane ecosystems in the tropics.

This study analyzes the characteristics of upwelling events during the northeast monsoon, as
well as El-Niño impacts towards upwelling in the northwest Sabah, which is located in southern
part of the South China Sea by combining remote sensing, reanalysis, and modeling data. The
data used in this study obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
Aqua satellite for the sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a concentration data, Hybrid
Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the vertical cross section of temperature and salinity
data, and European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis
(ERA-Interim) for the wind data, as well as Ekman transport and Ekman pumping analysis during
December to April 2003-2016. The monthly mean of the climatological data were analyzed and
the results showed that the MODIS-Aqua satellite indicates the presence of cooler sea surface
temperature (SST) and higher chlorophyll-a concentration along the inshore region of northwest
Sabah during the northeast monsoon, indicating the existence of upwelling. Cross-sectional
temperature profiles obtained from the HYCOM further confirmed the existence of upwelling as
the thermohaline was uplifted from the deeper layer and reached the surface during the northeast
monsoon. Ekman transport and Ekman pumping derived from the ECMWF showed an upwelling
favorable condition during the northeast monsoon. Comparison between climatological data and
El-Niño year in 2016 represented that El-Niño events somehow increase the upwelling intensity
due to the intensification of Ekman transport and Ekman pumping.

Is El Niño something new and unusual in the Earth's climate? No. El Niño has been occurring at least since people started putting thermometers in the ocean around the middle of the nineteenth century. Moreover, archived documents left by the Spanish colonists in Peru confirm that El Niño impacts such as occur now (flooding, marine life disturbances, etc.) have been felt in Peru ever since the first conquistador (Francisco Pizarro) set foot there in the early 16th century. And, as far as we can tell from paleo-climatic indicators such as geological evidence & tree rings, El Niño has been occurring for at least thousands of years, probably much as it has during this century. It will probably continue to occur as long as our climate system works the way it has since the most recent ice sheets of the late pleistocene receded (i.e., needing to get rid of excess tropical heat as explained in the question Does El Niño play a special role in Nature?).

Positive salinity anomaly in a tropical coastal lagoon (Laguna de Terminos, Mexico) during the 2009 ENSO, global climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity variation. Journal: Global Change Biology Abstract: The wide range of ecological goods and services provided by tropical coastal lagoons and coastal wetlands are under considerable pressure due to the synergistic effects of local anthropogenic impact and global climate change. Salinity is an essential ecological driver depending on the balance between marine and estuarine inputs and the ongoing decline in fisheries recruitment in the Gulf of Mexico has been linked to environmental degradation of coastal ecosystems among which long term change in salinity has been identified as a potential key factor. As part of a joint study of the wide and very shallow coastal lagoon of Terminos in the south east part of Mexico we established that salinity variability was directly related to variability in river flow rates. Minimum river flow discharge from

Los diferentes fenómenos meteorológicos conducentes a sequías registrados en la isla de Margarita durante el período colonial son revisados aquí desde una perspectiva analítica que interpreta la articulación clima-sociedad-historia como una relación indivisible. El trabajo, basado en la recopilación de información documental, pretende evidenciar la historicidad de la vulnerabilidad de aquella sociedad, así como su carencia de estrategias de adaptación al medioambiente.

In the Eastern Pacific, lithogenic input to the ocean is a response of the atmospheric and ocean system variability and their teleconnections over different timescales. Atmospheric (e.g., wind fields, precipitation), hydrological (e.g., fresh water plumes) and oceanic (e.g., currents) conditions determine the transport mode and the amount of lithogenic material transported from the continent to the continental shelf. Here, we present the grain size distribution of a composite record of two laminated sediment cores retrieved in the Peruvian continental shelf, covering the last ~1100 yr at sub-decadal to centennial time-series resolution. We then discuss the paleo-environmental significance and the climatic mechanisms involved. Four grain size modes were identified. Two are linked to aeolian inputs (M3: 53.0 μm and M4: 90.8 μm on average), the third is interpreted as a marker of sediment discharge (M2: 9.4 μm on average), and the last is without an associated origin (M1: ~3 μm). The coarsest components (M3 and M4) dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) periods, suggesting that aeolian transport increased as consequence of wind stress intensification. In contrast, M2 displays an opposite behavior, exhibiting an increase in fluvial terrigenous input during the Little Ice Age (LIA), in response to more humid conditions. Comparison with other South American paleoclimate records indicates that the observed changes are driven by interactions between meridional displacement of the Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and of the South Pacific Sub-tropical High (SPSH) at decadal and centennial time scales.

Based on a review here, the most recent Tasmanian devil remains on the mainland date from between 3000 and 4000 years BP in three isolated populations. A widely promulgated recent date within the last 500 years is rejected. Previous studies have found the arrival of the dingo (>3500 BP) to be the only suitable coincident extinction cause, although Aboriginal cultural changes have also been recently implicated. I propose that increased climate variability associated with the onset of the El Niño Southern Oscillation after 6000 BP and a subsequent intensification c. 3000 BP was also a causative factor. Other causes are not rejected, but rather all are placed within a multicausal model. Tasmanian devils are particularly susceptible to climate variability because they are the only specialised scavenger in Australia. Specialised scavengers are mostly limited by variability in the availability of carrion, and this would have increased significantly with ENSO. The fossil record (and persistence in Tasmania) indicates a range contraction of Tasmanian devils from the late Pleistocene onwards towards isolated refugia into those parts of the country least affected by ENSO related climate variability.

response to ENSO is important. ENSO, in the absence of the SIOD, forces an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave over Southern Africa that modifies the regional mid-tropospheric vertical motions and precipitation anomalies. El Niño (La Niña) is related with high (low) pressure over Southern Africa that produces anomalous mid-tropospheric descent (ascent) and decreases (increases) in precipitation relative to average. When the SIOD and ENSO are in opposite phases, the SIOD compliments the ENSO-related atmospheric response over Southern Africa by strengthening the regional equivalent barotropic Rossby wave, anomalous mid-tropo-spheric vertical motions and anomalous precipitation. By contrast, when the SIOD and ENSO are in the same phase, the SIOD disrupts the ENSO-related atmospheric response over Southern Africa by weakening the regional equivalent barotropic Rossby wave, anomalous mid-tropospheric vertical motions and anomalous precipitation.

Las pesquerías de pequeña escala, o artesanales, desempeñan un papel fundamental en la seguridad alimentaria y mitigación de la pobreza en América Latina. Estas pesquerías están cada vez más amenazadas por factores antropogénicos y climáticos que actúan en diversas escalas espacio-temporales. Este trabajo documenta los efectos de la variabilidad climática en pesquerías de pequeña escala de invertebrados en América Latina, basado en literatura reciente. Además se discute el impacto conjunto de dos agentes forzantes adicionales: la
globalización de los mercados y la gobernanza. Se ha observado que la variabilidad climática (e.g., anomalías de la temperatura superficial del mar) produce impactos significativos en las pesquerías de pequeña escala, los cuales varían en función del ciclo de vida y la distribución geográfica de las especies objetivo, así como de las características oceanográficas de cada región. Estas variables, en conjunto con factores económicos, han incrementado las tasas de agotamiento de los stocks pesqueros. Se destaca la necesidad de mejorar los sistemas
de manejo y gobernanza para hacer frente a la creciente incertidumbre generada por los impactos del cambio climático y la globalización de mercados.

The Ifaty coral record from off SW Madagascar provide a 336-year coral oxygen isotope record that is used to investigate the natural variability of the western Indian Ocean subtropical SST dipole and ENSO. The coral oxygen isotope record primarily reflects past sea-surface temperature (SST) variability on seasonal to multidecadal scales. To validate the SST reconstructions derived from oxygen isotopes, Sr/Ca ratios were obtained for selected time windows (1973–1995, 1863–1910, 1784–1809, 1688–1710). The period 1675–1760 was found to be the coolest period of the entire record with anomalies of 0.3–0.5 °C that includes the Late Maunder Minimum (1675–1710). The warmest periods, as indicated by our data, occur between 1880 and 1900 and the upper part of the Ifaty record (1973–1995).We generated a time series of coral δ18O for different seasons of the year to investigate austral winter and summer SST variability that influences rainfall intensity over southern Africa. Winter coral δ18O is coherent with winter SST on decadal and multidecadal time scales between 1854 and 1995. We suggest that the Ifaty winter time series provides a record of winter SST variability over the Mozambique Channel/Agulhas Current region over 336 years.Strong Indian Ocean subtropical dipole events, occurring during austral summer, are displayed in the Ifaty record. The austral summer coral δ18O is coherent and in phase with ENSO indices on interannual time scales (2–4 years) between 1880–1920, 1930–1940 and after 1970. Our data indicate that the impact of ENSO on SW Indian Ocean SST and atmospheric circulation was also strong between 1680–1720 and 1760–1790, in agreement with other studies. We show evidence that these variations are caused by changes in the regional hydrologic balance. The results demonstrate that the impact of ENSO cycles in the region of the SW Indian Ocean has changed significantly since 1970 and relate to a warming of southwestern Indian Ocean surface waters altering the spatial signature of ENSO.

The annual catch of glass eels of the Japanese eel Anguilla japonica highly fluctuates in East Asia, which is a great risk to the eel aquaculture industry and makes resource management difficult. An analysis of data of the catch of glass eels from 1972 to 2008 in Taiwan indicated that the glass eel catch mainly fluctuates in a cycle of 5 and 6 yr, which matches the dominant reproductive cycle of this species. The peak catch percentage of silver eels in the estuary of the Kaoping River in southwestern Taiwan occurred 1 yr before a glass eel peak catch, implying a possible spawner-recruit relationship. Burst catches of glass eels every 11 yr match periods of maximum solar activity. The annual glass eel catch was not statistically correlated with the El Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) index, although strong El Nino events seemed to correspond to years of poor catches. Thus, fluctuations in the annual glass eel catch are likely shaped by both the reproductive cycle of the eel and enviro...

The restinga de Maricá has twelve species of mammals identified. All species are in common with the Atlantic Forest. The ones we studied the water balance had no adaptation to salt concentration. The restinga has four major type of macrohabitat that are determined by the interaction between soil and microclimate. There some variation in mammal distribution and abundance due to habitat variation at both meso and micro scales. The variation was the cause in the variance in mammal density at each collecting place with no discernible border effect: where humidity is higher there was higher mammal diversity and populations. A population study was carried out during five years showing an increase in abundance in an La Niña year. Only one in seven species showed no microhabitat preferences. This one had its distribution determined by abundance of alimentary resources. Some methodological problems are discussed.

The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differe...

The January-April 2017 El Niño-costero, which brought elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to the Niño 1+2 region and sudden rainfall, highlights the need for eastern Pacific oriented El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) proxies along the Peruvian coast. Unfortunately paleoclimatological archive options for this coast are limited because there are few long-lived (>50 years) organisms suitable for reconstructions; however, short-lived (<5 years) intertidal bivalve species are abundant. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that these bivalves live long enough to record seasonal and thus ENSO variability. Reconstructions have been created using Mesodesma donacium, an intertidal clam; however, M. donacium populations are vulnerable to die-offs from warmer SSTs during El Niño events, possibly biasing its seasonal δ18O cycle towards ENSO-neutral and La Niña conditions. M. donacium are also functionally extinct north of 14°S, limiting the geographic range for modern analog studies. Here we present another short-lived intertidal clam species, Donax obesulus, as a complimentary archive to M. donacium for reconstructing ENSO variability in modern and prehistoric Peru. D. obesulus lives in warmer SSTs and survives north of 14°S, yet may be sensitive to colder La Niña conditions. Both clam species are found in archaeological sites along the north-central coast of Peru, providing a comparison between modern and prehistoric ENSO variability in an under-researched area. We collected D. obesulus from the Nepeña Valley, department of Ancash, Peru, in 2012, 2014, and 2016 (La Niña, ENSO-neutral, and El Niño years, respectively) for a modern analog study. We also obtained M. donacium and D. obesulus specimens excavated from a prehistoric ( 2300±100 BP) site (Caylán) in the same valley for comparison to modern ENSO conditions. Our results indicate that modern D. obesulus have a seasonal δ18O range of 0.8‰, which is less than modern M. donacium from previous studies (1.1‰). Archaeological D. obesulus had a larger seasonal δ18O range ( 1.8‰), indicating greater ENSO variability. Caylán M. donacium have a seasonal range of 1.1‰, within the range of previous studies (seasonal δ18O range = 0.3-1.3‰, 2900 BP). Our results also indicate a shift in modern D. obesulus mean shell δ18O (+0.77‰) compared to 2300 BP at Caylán.