Linda Veiga
Universidade do Minho, Dept. of Economics, Faculty Member
Research Interests:
Electronic government innovations have been a critical development in public administration in recent years. Many countries have implemented e‐government policies to enhance efficiency and transparency and combat corruption. This paper... more
Electronic government innovations have been a critical development in public administration in recent years. Many countries have implemented e‐government policies to enhance efficiency and transparency and combat corruption. This paper examines the impact of e‐government on corruption using longitudinal data for more than 170 countries from 2002 to 2020. The empirical results suggest that e‐government serves as a deterrent to corrupt activities. We analyse which e‐government domains affect corruption, which types of corruption are more affected by e‐government and the circumstances under which e‐government is more effective in reducing corruption. The empirical results suggest that online service completion and e‐participation are important features of e‐government as an anticorruption tool. Evidence suggests that e‐participation reduces corrupt legislature activities, public sector theft, executive bribery, and corrupt exchanges. The potential of e‐government to deter corruption is higher in countries where corruption is moderate or high and economic development is lower.
Higher levels of GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and political rights are also associated with lower levels of corruption.
Higher levels of GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and political rights are also associated with lower levels of corruption.
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Administrative and regulatory burden reduction is critical to improving government efficiency and economic competitiveness. Innovations in government through Information and Communication Technologies are key tools in designing policies... more
Administrative and regulatory burden reduction is critical to improving government efficiency and economic competitiveness. Innovations in government through Information and Communication Technologies are key tools in designing policies to achieve these goals. Using a panel dataset covering 169 countries from 2004 to 2018, we investigate the possible contribution of digital government as a business facilitator. The empirical results suggest that progress in digital government contributes to reducing administrative and regulatory burdens, creating a more business-friendly environment in several areas of business regulations. Governance effectiveness may also play a significant role in facilitating business. The results are robust to a battery of robustness tests and alternative empirical strategies.
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Recent policy guidelines and conceptual literature have been suggesting electronic government (e-gov) and ICT based solutions as a way to decrease the administrative and regulatory burdens on business. We use data from the World... more
Recent policy guidelines and conceptual literature have been suggesting electronic government (e-gov) and ICT based solutions as a way to decrease the administrative and regulatory burdens on business. We use data from the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business reports and the United Nations' E-Gov Surveys to study the relationship between e-gov and the ease of doing business in a panel with more than 160 countries. Results suggest that e-gov may positively influence six business areas: Starting a Business, Getting Electricity, Registering Property, Getting Credit, Trading Across Borders and Protecting Minority Investors. Our research intends to quantify the relationship between these two topics and to contribute towards the definition of e-gov policies that can benefit business.
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Research Interests: Literacy, Public Opinion, Portuguese, Corporate Governance, Political Science, and 12 moreApplied Economics, Development Economics and Economics of Education, Questionnaire, Economic Statistics, Education Systems, Economics Education, Undergraduate Students, Socioeconomic Status, Undergraduate Student, Questionnaires, Financial and economic literacy, and economic literacy
Disaster risk governance is a function of institutions at multiple levels of government to predict and effectively respond to threats posed by global changes such as urbanization, climate and demographic change. An important determinant... more
Disaster risk governance is a function of institutions at multiple levels of government to predict and effectively respond to threats posed by global changes such as urbanization, climate and demographic change. An important determinant of government’s effectiveness in responding to environmental threats could be levels of administrative and political decentralization. In Chap. 3, we discussed two case studies and examined how results-based financing (RBF) models could support a strategy for the delivery of water and sanitation services. In this chapter, we outline tentative research propositions to discuss the role of decentralization in predicting and responding to disaster risk. We also outline the applications of a Nexus Observatory by discussing the role of the following tools: nexus index, data visualization, scenario analysis, and benchmarking. We argue that the above tools could support the use of RBF approaches that strengthen accountability in revenue and expenditure decisions of local authorities.
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Electronic government innovations have been a critical development in public administration in recent years. Many countries have implemented e-government policies to enhance efficiency and transparency and combat corruption. This paper... more
Electronic government innovations have been a critical development in public administration in recent years. Many countries have implemented e-government policies to enhance efficiency and transparency and combat corruption. This paper examines the impact of e-government on corruption using longitudinal data for more than 170 countries from 2002 to 2020. The empirical results suggest that e-government serves as a deterrent to corrupt activities. We analyse which e-government domains affect corruption, which types of corruption are more affected by e-government and the circumstances under which e-government is more effective in reducing corruption. The empirical results suggest that online service completion and e-participation are important features of e-government as an anticorruption tool. Evidence suggests that e-participation reduces corrupt legislature activities, public sector theft, executive bribery, and corrupt exchanges. The potential of e-government to deter corruption is higher in countries where corruption is moderate or high and economic development is lower. Higher levels of GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and political rights are also associated with lower levels of corruption.
Research Interests:
Investment in wind power has grown remarkably in the past decades in Portugal. Although economic development is an argument for investment incentive policies, little evidence exists as to their net impact on local-level unemployment.... more
Investment in wind power has grown remarkably in the past decades in Portugal. Although economic development is an argument for investment incentive policies, little evidence exists as to their net impact on local-level unemployment. Using data for all 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the years 1997–2017, we assess the existence, distribution and duration of local-level labor impacts of wind power investment. Our results show there are short-term effects during the construction phase. We estimate a decrease of 0.17 and 0.23 percentage points in the total unemployment rate per 100 MW of installed power in each of the two years of the construction phase. These effects are felt mainly for unskilled labor and male workers. Further analysis of spatial interaction finds positive spatial spillovers for municipalities that are 30 km or less away but not farther, implying workers are willing to commute but not migrate. We find a very small sustained impact during the operations and maintenance phase, despite both short- and long-term impacts on municipalities' revenues.
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Based on a survey of more than 400 students at the University of Minho in Portugal, we analyse the relationship of (1) basic economic literacy, (2) knowledge of the country's economic performance, and (3) opinions regarding appropriate... more
Based on a survey of more than 400 students at the University of Minho in Portugal, we analyse the relationship of (1) basic economic literacy, (2) knowledge of the country's economic performance, and (3) opinions regarding appropriate economic policies, with previous economic training, and other socioeconomic variables. The results clearly show that economic training has a positive influence on students' economic literacy, and knowledge of the country's current economic data and conditions. It also influences their assessment of how economic policy should be conducted. We argue that more training in Economics, both at the high school and university levels, is necessary to improve citizens' knowledge for making personal and social decisions on economic issues, namely during election periods. This recommendation is particularly relevant for countries that recently underwent deep economic crises.
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This paper analyzes how electoral incentives shape fiscal policy, focusing on the introduction of mayoral term limits in Portugal. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence that when a municipality has a term-limited... more
This paper analyzes how electoral incentives shape fiscal policy, focusing on the introduction of mayoral term limits in Portugal. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence that when a municipality has a term-limited (TL) mayor, it experiences a fall in revenues and expenditures. The effect seems to be driven by lower effort of lame-duck mayors, relative to reelection-eligible ones, to implement new investments and to obtain conditional grants from the central government, especially in election years. Although lame ducks are less opportunistic in general, the results suggest that opportunism may not decrease in municipalities whose TL mayors resign before the end of their terms and are replaced by their (eligible) vice-mayors.
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This paper studies the impact of binding term limits on voter turnout, analyzing the Portuguese experience at the local government level, where the institutional reform was exogenously imposed by the national parliament. Although... more
This paper studies the impact of binding term limits on voter turnout, analyzing the Portuguese experience at the local government level, where the institutional reform was exogenously imposed by the national parliament. Although instrumental, expressive, and information-based theories of voter participation imply effects of term limits on turnout, this is clearly an under-researched topic. Applying a difference-indifferences approach to data at both the municipal and parish levels, we find robust evidence that the presence of term-limited incumbents has a positive impact on voter participation.
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This paper provides an empirical appraisal of the influence of politics on the evolution of unemployment rates in 13 industrialized democracies (12 European Union countries and the U.S.) from 1960 to 1999. We conduct new tests of... more
This paper provides an empirical appraisal of the influence of politics on the evolution of unemployment rates in 13 industrialized democracies (12 European Union countries and the U.S.) from 1960 to 1999. We conduct new tests of opportunistic and partisan business cycle models, using richer data and more general specifications than previous studies. In contrast to most previous studies, we pay particular attention to the importance of labor market structure in conditioning the influence of politics on unemployment. We also investigate the relationship between political stability and economic stability.
The results suggest the existence of partisan effects, with higher unemployment rates pre-vailing under “right” parties than “left” parties. There is more support for “rational” partisan models that embody transient partisan impacts than for models with permanent effects. Wefind evidence that union power is associated with higher average unemployment rates, but that centralized bargaining institutions tend to lower unemployment rates. The evidence also suggests that more fragmented coalition governments are associated with higher unemployment rates than single party governments
The results suggest the existence of partisan effects, with higher unemployment rates pre-vailing under “right” parties than “left” parties. There is more support for “rational” partisan models that embody transient partisan impacts than for models with permanent effects. Wefind evidence that union power is associated with higher average unemployment rates, but that centralized bargaining institutions tend to lower unemployment rates. The evidence also suggests that more fragmented coalition governments are associated with higher unemployment rates than single party governments
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This paper aims at testing the degree of interaction between Portuguese municipalities' expenditure levels by estimating a dynamic panel model, based on jurisdictional reaction functions. The analysis is performed for all 278... more
This paper aims at testing the degree of interaction between Portuguese municipalities' expenditure levels by estimating a dynamic panel model, based on jurisdictional reaction functions. The analysis is performed for all 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities from 1986 to 2006, using alternative ways to measure neighbourhood. Results indicate that local governments' spending decisions are significantly influenced by the actions of neighbouring municipalities. For total expenditures, there is evidence that a 10% increase in nearby ...
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Investment in wind power has grown remarkably in the past decades in the European Union, and in particular in Portugal. Although support for incentive policies is based on economic development arguments, little evidence exists as to their... more
Investment in wind power has grown remarkably in the past decades in the European Union, and in particular in Portugal. Although support for incentive policies is based on economic development arguments, little evidence exists as to their impact on overall job creation and local level effects. We assess the existence, distribution and duration of local level labor impacts of wind power investment using a panel of all 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the years 2001-2014. Our results show there are short term effects, mainly for low skilled labor, during the construction phase. We estimate a decrease of 0.37 percentage points in total unemployment rate for each 100MW installed. We find positive spatial spillovers for municipalities that are 30km or less away. We find no evidence of sustained effects or impact during the operations and maintenance phase. These insights highlight the need to couple incentive policies with labor market and educational reforms that reduce the mi...
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This paper examines the effects of elections on the conduct of central governments' fiscal policies. To do so, it uses a unique panel database that includes disaggregated spending and revenue series at the central government level for... more
This paper examines the effects of elections on the conduct of central governments' fiscal policies. To do so, it uses a unique panel database that includes disaggregated spending and revenue series at the central government level for multiple countries over the 1975–2010 period. Examining political environments under which incumbent governments generate political budget cycles (PBCs), and comparing the relative importance of factors influencing cycles, we identify media freedom as the factor that plays the most critical role. This result provides a micro-foundation for rational opportunistic models for PBCs that rely on asymmetry of information about politicians' competence, and also offers a way to relate different conditioning factors of PBCs, including fiscal transparency and the maturity of democracies. Further, we show that the election-year rise in budget deficits under low media freedom is primarily driven by an increase in the current, not capital, component of public expenditure.
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This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of term limits at the local government level, using the Portuguese case as a natural experiment. Term limits became binding in the 2013 municipal elections, forcing 52% of incumbent... more
This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of term limits at the local government level, using the Portuguese case as a natural experiment. Term limits became binding in the 2013 municipal elections, forcing 52% of incumbent mayors to step down. Using a differences-in-differences approach, we find evidence that term limits changed the behavior of mayors and that experience matters for fiscal policy choices. The results also reveal that term-limited mayors are not all alike. True lame ducks spent less and were less opportunistic in electoral years. Term-limited mayors who ran for further political office behaved similarly to eligible mayors. Finally, the greatest degree of opportunism was found in municipalities whose term-limited mayors resigned and were replaced by their vice-presidents.
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O presente artigo testa a existência de ciclos político-económicos nos municípios de Portugal Continental, durante o período 1979-2001. Os resultados empíricos revelam claramente o comportamento eleitoralista dos autarcas que, em anos de... more
O presente artigo testa a existência de ciclos político-económicos nos municípios de Portugal Continental, durante o período 1979-2001. Os resultados empíricos revelam claramente o comportamento eleitoralista dos autarcas que, em anos de eleições, aumentam os défices e as despesas municipais, fazendo crescer o emprego municipal. Ao nível das despesas, os aumentos são mais elevados em rubricas altamente visíveis pelo eleitorado, tais como Viadutos, arruamentos e obras complementares e Viação rural. Na medida em que o eleitoralismo dos autarcas gera ineficiências na alocação dos recursos, consideramos ser benéfica a imposição de regras que limitem a gestão discricionária das finanças locais.
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This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. Estimation results of popularity functions validate the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity... more
This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. Estimation results of popularity functions validate the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity levels. There is also evidence of personality effects, of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects. Finally, we found that voters’ evaluations of incumbents’ performance regarding unemployment is affected by their support in Parliament – when an incumbent faces more opposition in Parliament, voters are less likely to hold him responsible for unemployment increases.
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The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election... more
The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that explores the two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a large
panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger winmargin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their
win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.
panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger winmargin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their
win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.
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We acknowledge helpful comments from Henry Chappell, Martin Paldam, Torben Iversen, one anonymous referee, participants at the 2001 European Public Choice Society Meeting and at the 2002 Public Choice Society. We also express our... more
We acknowledge helpful comments from Henry Chappell, Martin Paldam, Torben Iversen, one anonymous referee, participants at the 2001 European Public Choice Society Meeting and at the 2002 Public Choice Society. We also express our gratitude for the financial support of the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology under research grants POCTI/99/ECO/32609 and POCTI/2001/ECO/37457. Finally, this paper benefited from the efficient research assistance of Cláudia Ribeiro.
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Using employment data for Portuguese municipalities, we find strong evidence of political business cycles. Employment increases shortly before elections mainly in municipalities where the mayor’s party has a majority of deputies in the... more
Using employment data for Portuguese municipalities, we find strong evidence of political business cycles. Employment increases shortly before elections mainly in municipalities where the mayor’s party has a majority of deputies in the municipal assembly and where she is running for reelection.
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Using data for 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities, we estimate the impact of national and local economic conditions on legislative electoral outcomes over the period from the reestablishment of democracy in 1974 to the present.... more
Using data for 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities, we estimate the impact of national and local economic conditions on legislative electoral outcomes over the period from the reestablishment of democracy in 1974 to the present. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important but that the municipal situation also conditions electoral outcomes.
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This paper uses a simultaneous equations model to analyze increases in intergovernmental fiscal transfers and associated vote changes in Portuguese legislative elections. The results suggest that election year increases in transfers by... more
This paper uses a simultaneous equations model to analyze increases in intergovernmental fiscal transfers and associated vote changes in Portuguese legislative elections. The results suggest that election year increases in transfers by the central government to municipalities secure added votes, and that these transfers are targeted at jurisdictions where the government faces risk of losing support.
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In Portugal, increases in investment expenditures and changes in the composition of spending favouring highly visible items are associated with higher vote percentages for incumbent mayors seeking re-election. The political payoff to... more
In Portugal, increases in investment expenditures and changes in the composition of spending favouring highly visible items are associated with higher vote percentages for incumbent mayors seeking re-election. The political payoff to opportunistic spending increased after democracy became well-established in the country.
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The present article tests predictions of rational political business cycle models using a large and previously unexplored data set of Portuguese municipalities. This data allows for a clean test of these predictions due to the high level... more
The present article tests predictions of rational political business cycle models using a large and previously unexplored data set of Portuguese municipalities. This data allows for a clean test of these predictions due to the high level of detail on expenditure items, an exogenous fixed election schedule, and homogeneity of Portuguese local governments with respect to policy instruments and institutions. Estimation results clearly reveal the opportunistic behaviour of local governments. In pre-electoral periods, they increase total expenditures and change their composition favouring items that are highly visible to the electorate. This behaviour is consistent with in an effort to signal competence and increase chances of re-election.
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Using an extensive dataset covering all Portuguese local governments (308), this paper analyzes the determinants of municipal deficits and debt. The results clearly indicate the existence of a political budget cycle, but there is no... more
Using an extensive dataset covering all Portuguese local governments (308), this paper analyzes the determinants of municipal deficits and debt. The results clearly indicate the existence of a political budget cycle, but there is no evidence that fiscal policy is used strategically to condition the decisions of subsequent governments. Furthermore, local governments that enjoy larger support in the town-hall and for which there is party similarity between the mayor and the prime-minister have larger budget balances. Finally, larger shares of investment and of interest payments in expenditures, and higher unemployment rates increase indebtedness, while higher private sector wages, more construction licenses, and greater percentages of the municipal area assigned to urban use are associated with lower indebtedness.
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This paper uses a simultaneous equations model to analyze increases in intergovernmental fiscal transfers and associated vote changes in Portuguese legislative elections. The results suggest that election year increases in transfers by... more
This paper uses a simultaneous equations model to analyze increases in intergovernmental fiscal transfers and associated vote changes in Portuguese legislative elections. The results suggest that election year increases in transfers by the central government to municipalities secure added votes, and that these transfers are targeted at jurisdictions where the government faces the risk of losing support.
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The paper examines the determinants of the assignment of EU funds to Portuguese municipalities using a large and unexplored dataset covering all (278) mainland municipalities over fifteen years. Empirical results reveal that besides... more
The paper examines the determinants of the assignment of EU funds to Portuguese municipalities using a large and unexplored dataset covering all (278) mainland municipalities over fifteen years. Empirical results reveal that besides normative objectives, the national government also takes into account political motivations in the distribution of funds to municipalities. Grants increase during local election years, more funds are transferred to municipalities where the government party had higher percentages of votes, and where there are more swing voters.
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This paper aims at testing the degree of interaction between Portuguese municipalities’ expenditure levels by estimating a dynamic panel model, based on jurisdictional reaction functions. The analysis is performed for all 278 Portuguese... more
This paper aims at testing the degree of interaction between Portuguese municipalities’ expenditure levels by estimating a dynamic panel model, based on jurisdictional reaction functions. The analysis is performed for all 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities from 1986 to 2006, using alternative ways to measure neighbourhood. Results indicate that local governments’ spending decisions are significantly influenced by the actions of neighbouring municipalities. For total expenditures, there is evidence that a 10% increase in nearby municipalities’ expenditures boosts expenditures in a given municipality by around 3.8%.
We investigate the determinants of public support for EU membership using a panel of fifteen countries over the 1974 - 2008 period. The results indicate that increases in inflation and unemployment rate generate a decrease in support for... more
We investigate the determinants of public support for EU membership using a panel of fifteen countries over the 1974 - 2008 period. The results indicate that increases in inflation and unemployment rate generate a decrease in support for EU membership, while growth of GDP growth increases support. There is evidence of erosion in citizens’ support as time in the Union accumulates and when the country is under the excessive deficit procedure. Splitting the sample into different periods reveals that real economic variables were more influential in shaping citizens’ support for the EU than nominal variables during the first years of the Community, but inflation became the most relevant variable after implementation of the Treaty of the European Union.
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The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election... more
The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that explores the two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a large panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger win-margin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.
Research Interests:
This paper tests the joint hypotheses that policymakers engage in fiscal policy opportunism and that voters respond by rewarding that opportunism with higher vote margins. Furthermore, it investigates the impact of fiscal illusion on the... more
This paper tests the joint hypotheses that policymakers engage in fiscal policy opportunism and that voters respond by rewarding that opportunism with higher vote margins. Furthermore, it investigates the impact of fiscal illusion on the previous two dimensions. Empirical results, obtained with a sample of 68 countries from 1960 to 2006, reveal that opportunistic measures of expenditures and revenues generate larger winning margins for the incumbent and that the opportunistic manipulation of fiscal policy instruments is larger when the current government is less likely to be re-elected. Furthermore, fiscal illusion contributes to the entrenchment of incumbent policymakers in office and promotes opportunistic behaviour.
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Using data for 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities, we estimate the impact of national and local economic conditions on legislative electoral outcomes over the period from the reestablishment of democracy in 1974 to the present.... more
Using data for 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities, we estimate the impact of national and local economic conditions on legislative electoral outcomes over the period from the reestablishment of democracy in 1974 to the present. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important but that the municipal situation also conditions electoral outcomes.