Anastasia Barannikova

Active efforts by both countries on the Korean Peninsula to build up military capabilities over recent years have increased the conflict potential of Northeast Asia and raised the possibility of conflict, including one involving nuclear weapons use. In connection with the nuclear status and perception of the DPRK in the expert community, especially in the West, it is customary to speculate about the outbreak of the conflict on its initiative. However, the intentions of the DPRK leadership and readiness to use nuclear weapons should be assessed not on the basis of official rhetoric, which is part of propaganda and information warfare, but on the basis of nuclear strategy. The present article attempts to identify the real nuclear strategy of the DPRK based on the analysis of its nuclear doctrine and trends in the development of the nuclear and missile program.

Currently the national project “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation” is being implemented in Russia, providing for the digitalization of large cities, including the port city of Vladivostok. The article discusses some problems of digitalization of Vladivostok, which require solutions in order to make the process of introducing information technology and creating a “smart city” as efficient as possible and at the same time minimize the costs of its implementation.

Digitalization is currently one of China’s national priorities, and it could not but affect its transport and logistics ector in general and such megaprojects as “One Belt - One Road” in particular. As a result, such a component as the Digital Silk Road comes to the fore. However, despite the positive aspects of digitalization, the implementation of the Digital Silk Road also carries certain risks for the participating countries.

The article discusses the use of modern intelligent systems in seaports in the Russian Federation and abroad. Modern developments announced by companies and organizations at various levels, the degree of their implementation at various transport enterprises, and the features of the policies of states implementing Industry 4.0 technologies are analyzed. Special attention is paid to problematic issues of using modern digital technologies in maritime transport in general and in ports in particular. The authors describe the results of an experiment on the possibility of using AI to optimize the work of the editorial office of the scientific journal “Asia-Pacific Journal of Marine Science and Education”. With the help of AI, it was planned to create content for the journal’s website, carry out translations, select sources on a given topic and for scientific articles, and promote the site online.

Over the past decade, the DPRK has demonstrated impressive progress in the development of nuclear and missile technologies. Such progress would have been impossible without clear strategic nuclear planning and a vision of the role and place of nuclear weapons in the country's defense system and ways of their use. To understand the role and ways of nuclear weapon use by the DPRK, an analysis of its nuclear strategy is necessary. At the same time, any assumptions about how the DPRK's nuclear strategy and nuclear and missile program will evolve must be based rather on analysis of its real strategy than of declarative documents serving propaganda means. For this purpose, the most acceptable doctrine for the DPRK was identified, which, together with an analysis of technical capabilities, made it possible to substantiate the acceptability of a hybrid nuclear strategy and suggest its development for the near future.

В данной статье проанализированы основные причины интереса руководства КНДР к развитию тактического оружия с перспективой дальнейшего оснащения его ядерными зарядами и рассмотрены возможные сферы его применения. Было выявлено, что помимо военного применения тактическое ядерное оружие может стать эффективным средством дипломатии и аргументом для возобновления диалога КНДР и США. В зависимости от позиции международного сообщества и США в частности, ТЯО КНДР может либо способствовать возобновлению диалога и стабилизации в СВА, либо вызвать дополнительные риски и угрозы для безопасности и режима нераспространения.

Anastasia BARANNIKOVA The Law "On the state policy on the nuclear forces" was adopted at the 7th Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on 8 September to replace the Law "On further consolidating the position of the self-defense nuclear weapons state" adopted on 1 April 2013. The new law retained the main provisions of the previous one and contains a number of additions that indicate the DPRK is reconsidering its regional role, re-imagining the types of relationships it can have not only with adversaries, but also with friendlier countries such as China and Russia.

For the last three decades the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue (KPNI) has been considered as one of the most serious threats to security and stability in NEA (Northeast Asia). To date, none of the efforts by the international community—including Six-party talks, pressure and diplomatic efforts, and more recently, activity started by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 2018-2019—have yielded tangible results in addressing the issue. This puts into question the viability of the existing approaches to the DPRK and the feasibility of achieving a KPNI solution.

Despite the fact that the DPRK has not yet resumed nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, it is obvious that the country has not given up its nuclear ambitions. On the contrary, North Korea demonstrates its intent to further boost its nuclear capabilities. It is evidenced by the multiple tests and demonstrations of new and previously tested weapons systems since last year, a series of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) Central Military Commission meetings presided by Kim Jong Un and finally, by the recent military parade. New strategic capabilities demonstrated during the parade cannot be considered proven until they are tested. However, given North Korea's rapid progress in previous years and strong incentive to develop its nuclear forces, a resumption of tests is only a matter of time. This progress in the nuclear and missile realm would be impossible without proper strategic planning and a clear vision of the role of nuclear weapons. The present article analyzes some of the peculiar features and new trends of North Korean nuclear doctrine and strategy.

The present article addresses the problems of economic cooperation between China and ROK from the point of implementing their Eurasian integration initiativesthe One Belt, One Road, Eurasia Initiative and New Northern Policy. The initiatives of both countries, which at first glance are aimed at developing economies of the participants, also pursue distinct political goals. Accordingly, the most serious problems arising on the way of their implementation are of a political nature.

North Korea labels current international weapons control system and the very world order as discriminatory and inefficient. The fact that the DPRK does not participate in international agreements and control mechanisms relating to nuclear weapons gives it an important advantage over other nuclear states: it can build any class and type of nuclear missile or device in any numbers. However the fact that the DPRK stays away of international agreements and mechanisms does not mean that it can't benefit from their failure or collapse. It is obvious that if the US and Russia fail to prolongate Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and it will be terminated next year or even earlier, another arms race will start involving North Korea as any other regional power.

The DPRK behavior and its stance on nuclear and missile program are often perceived by the West as irrational. Not least of all, this is due to the fact that most researchers consider the country through the lens of the western mentality and their own cultural and ethical stereotypes. Meanwhile, the DPRK is an eastern country with its philosophy and way of thinking. The present article attempts to explain foreign policy and diplomacy of the DPRK through the lens of stratagem thinking.

The article analyzes the problem of dormant territorial disputes of China. Reassessment of the role of China and intensification of its foreign policy strategy has had a significant influence on his approach to the solution of territorial disputes. It can create challenges not only for countries currently involved in territorial disputes with China, but also for those whose disputes with China were considered settled.

Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, initially drawn as a line for preventing conflicts between DPRK and ROK now turned into source of conflicts. NLL was drawn unilaterally, was not legally provided and even breaches UNCLOS. Controversial status of NLL causes conflicts and military clashes in disputed waters, followed by military buildup by both countries. In order to prevent the area from becoming another " hot spot " urgent measures are needed. Considering current relations between DPRK and ROK, the issue cannot be settled at once. The only possible way to solve the problem is the negotiation process between two countries aimed to improving relations between them and reviving peaceful projects and agreements reached in 2007. As the problem of maritime boundary between DPRK and ROK is closely connected with security of the whole Northeast Asian region, all countries neighboring both Koreas should also contribute to solving problem.

Россия и АТР: взгляд из Владивостока Анастасия Баранникова: О ядерной доктрине КНДР В 2017 году КНДР успешно провела ряд испытаний ракет и водородной бомбы и стала де-факто ядерной державой. В своей новогодней речи глава КНДР Ким Чен Ын заявил о «свершении великого исторического дела усовершенствования ядерных вооруженных сил государства», что может означать, что минимальный потенциал ядерного сдерживания создан. Эксперты отмечают форсированные темпы развития ракетно-ядерной программы КНДР за последние несколько лет. Следует отметить также, что до прихода к власти Ким Чен Ына ракетно-ядерная программа КНДР была несколько хаотичной, но постепенно она приобрела стройность и последовательность. Существуют различные мнения относительно технического и технологического прорыва КНДР в ракетно-ядерной сфере, в том числе и о том, что здесь не обошлось без внешней помощи (со стороны России, Украины и т. д.). Сложно подтвердить факт такой помощи, равно как и опровергнуть. Однако можно с уверенностью сказать, что столь впечатляющий ракетно-ядерный прогресс КНДР был бы невозможен без грамотного планирования и четкого видения роли ЯО и способов его применения руководством страны. Хотя КНДР не объявляла об официально принятой военной доктрине, можно предположить, что в стране, в течение многих лет придерживавшейся политики «приоритета армии», военная доктрина или аналогичный документ был разработан после создания государства и его вооруженных сил. Вплоть до 2016 г. не было каких-либо достоверных сведений об этапах эволюции военной доктрины КНДР, однако с приходом к власти Ким Чен Ына страна стала более открытой в информационном плане, демонстрируя успехи в оборонной сфере через официальные СМИ и цитируя комментарии высшего руководства по вопросам развития всех сфер жизни страны, включая и военную. Так, по данным ЦТАК, весной 2016 г. Ким Чен Ын заявил о необходимости пересмотра военной доктрины страны, что сразу дало ответ на два вопроса: 1) военная доктрина у КНДР существует и 2) она как минимум один раз была пересмотрена. Независимо от того, будет ли такой документ опубликован или нет, можно попытаться составить представление о его содержании по открытым источникам.

Recent acceleration of the nuclear and missile program (technical progress, doctrine etc.) has made the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) de facto nuclear state. In this connection, the further intentions and steps of North Korean leadership are of specific interest. The present article analyzes current state of the DPRK nuclear and missile programs and strategic planning and attempts to determine the further development of nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula. Key words: DPRK, nuclear and missile program, Russia, double freezing initiative, NEA NWFZ Opinions on the level of the DPRK nuclear and missile programs are various, but the majority of experts recognize that it has already become an actor other regional countries have to reckon with. DPRK has not yet tested ICBM equipped with nuclear warhead. However, the samples of weapons demonstrated by the country since the beginning of last year indicate that the DPRK is capable of overcoming existing missile defense systems and delivering nuclear weapons to any point of the territories of ROK and Japan.

The evolution of the nuclear program (technical progress, doctrine etc.) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has made the coerced nuclear disarmament of the country unfeasible and dangerous. New motivating factors within DPRK and the arms race in Northeast Asia (NEA) are diminishing the chances of voluntary disarmament. It has become clear that sanctions and pressure against DPRK do not solve the problem, but only lead to a dead end. Under certain conditions, this approach can even lead to the outbreak of conflict or nuclear proliferation. Thus, it is necessary to look for new ways to address the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. For this purpose, the international community must move away from old approaches and towards new initiatives. One of the most promising ideas at the moment is the creation of a NEA Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone (NWFZ). This initiative implies a fundamentally new approach to DPRK that cannot be underestimated by its leadership. With flexibility and due consideration of the interests of all NEA countries, the implementation of NEA NWFZ initiative could really contribute to the peaceful solution of the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula. Over the past year, the tensions in Northeast Asia increased and the crisis on the Korean Peninsula escalated significantly. The nuclear and missile programs of DPRK accelerated drastically since the beginning of 2016; joint US-ROK exercises in the region have become even more provocative, taking into account the presence of nuclear weapons and the simulation by the United States of America (USA) and Republic of Korea (ROK) of a " decapitation strike " , designed to take out the top leadership of the DPRK. USA and ROK have agreed on the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems 1 on the Korean Peninsula and countries whose interests are threatened by these systems have already undertaken military-technical countermeasures. Russia and China are improving their strategic capabilities, developing hypersonic weapons to overcome US missile defense 2 and their expert communities 1 THAAD is a system designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase. A THAAD battery consists of launcher vehicles equipped with missiles, with two mobile tactical operations centers (TOCs) and the AN/TPY-2 ground-based radar (GBR) which is capable of detecting not only ballistic targets (missiles), but also aerodynamic ones (aircraft).

Though foreign policy of DPRK intensified noticeably since Kim Jong Un assumed power, it can hardly be characterized as consistent and stable. Acceleration of missile and nuclear activities at the beginning of last year not only nullified the results achieved in the sphere of foreign policy and diplomacy, but also affected DPRK relations with Russia and China. Tightening position on nuclear and missile program shows that currently creation of nuclear potential is more important for North Korean leadership than foreign policy. One can suggest that the DPRK will begin to pursue a consistent foreign policy and establish economic ties with the outside world after achieving final goals of its nuclear missile program and a nuclear power status. In this regard, international community now faces the choice between recognizing and cooperating with emerging nuclear state and continuing pressure on the DPRK and ignoring its interests, which will inevitably lead to a conflict in the region.

Принятое США и Республикой Корея решение о развёртывании систем противоракетной обороны THAAD на Корейском полуострове поставило под угрозу сохранявшийся в течение длительного времени баланс сил в СВА. Несмотря на заинтересованность России в развитии отношений с КНДР и Республикой Корея и недопущении гонки вооружений в регионе, ряд внешних факторов может повлиять на российскую позицию по THAAD и Корейскому полуострову в целом. В данной статье рассматриваются возможные последствия решения о развёртывании THAAD для региональной безопасности и отношений России со странами Корейского полуострова.

ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ ДАЛЬНЕГО ВОСТОКА В ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ ПРОСТРАНСТВО СССР В 1922-1925 гг. (ОПЫТ ДАЛЬРЕВКОМА) (рецензирована) В статье рассматриваются проблемы развития дальневосточного региона и его интеграции в советское экономическое пространство в 20-е гг. XX века. Местная власть, представленная Дальревкомом, предлагала меры наиболее эффективного развития региона с учётом его специфики и близости к странам АТР. И, хотя эти меры не были оценены по достоинству центральной властью, не исключено, что спустя многие десятилетия они будут проведены в жизнь современной российской властью. The article deals with the problems of the Far East region and its integration into the Soviet economic space in 1920-s. XX century. Local authorities, represented by Dalrevсom, proposed measures for the most effective development of the region, taking into account its specificity and affinity for the Asian-Pacific countries. Although these measures were not appreciated by the central government, it is possible that after many decades, they will be held in the life of modern Russian authorities.

The second meeting of the Ulaanbaatar Process took place last November. In the course of this event such issues as creation of a Northeast Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (NEA NWFZ) were discussed, as well as problems of Korean Peninsula and role of NGOs and academic community in supporting regional peace and stability.