Ivan Kruhlov

https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10113-018-1296-8?author_access_token=Uv1EUKCpZyudArKIZoECn_e4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY4_xB-UC0bwW6WZV1jLcAdpMNnfWfbn9tNedROx3pRxNcNdSpvBGuGU-dG7ZjO9CY03IueJlTtYrgqrgg2SXdjm46hx7ZFHoHenrjCI6qm_zg%3D%3D



Climate change will alter forest ecosystems and their provisioning of services. Forests in the Carpathian Mountains store high amounts of carbon and provide livelihoods to local people; however, no study has yet assessed their future long-term dynamics under climate change. Therefore, we selected a representative area of 1,340 km² to investigate the effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on (i) the spatial dynamics of the dominant tree species and forest types, and (ii) the trajectories of the associated aboveground live carbon (ALC). We simulated 500 years of change under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, and incorporating wind and bark beetle  disturbances using the LANDIS-II forest change model.

Our simulations revealed a lagged adaptation of the forest landscape to climate change. While Picea abies dominance declined in all scenarios, Carpinus betulus expanded at low elevations and Acer pseudoplatanus at mid-elevations. We also found a slow but continuous expansion of Quercus petraea and Q. robur at low elevations and of Fagus sylvatica at mid and high elevations. This change in species composition was accompanied by a significant reduction of ALC: on average over the simulation period, unmitigated climate change reduced ALC between -2.1% (RCP2.6) and -14.0% (RCP8.5), while disturbances caused an additional reduction of ALC between -4.5% (RCP2.6) and -6.6% (RCP8.5). Therefore, foresighted management strategies are needed to facilitate vegetation adaptation to climate change, with the goal of stabilizing carbon storage and maintaining economic value of future Carpathian forests.

Геоекосистема є геопросторовою екологічною моделлю ландшафту як реального тотального географічного комплексу, який охоплює всі природні та антропічні утворення поблизу земної поверхні. Залежно від обраного системоформувального компонента (абіотичного, біотичного чи соціоекономічного) можна виділити різні типи комплементарних геоекосистем, кожну з яких вивчає певна геоекологічна (ландшафтознавча) дисципліна. Концепція системного образу ландшафту у вигляді комплементарних геоекосистем покликана сприяти гармонізації підходів у ландшафтних дослідженнях.

The relations between geoecology, in its five main interpretations, and geographical disciplines are analyzed in order to find the most prospective concept for the further development of geoecology. It is found out that the geoecological concepts significantly "overlap" with, and even duplicate, established geographical and bioecological ideas. The idea of geoecology as an environmental science with no specific study object (Topchiev, 1996) is not fruitful owing to the threat to be "dissolved" in special systematic disciplines like environmental geomorphology etc. Geoecology as a study of biotic (Troll, 1972) and abiotic (Leser, 1997) interactions within an elementary landscape unit has a strong competitor in ecology – synecology (biogeocenology). Thus more advantageous seem to be ideas connecting geoecology and ntegrated geography (Bachynskyi, 1989; Hugget, 1995; Blumenstein et al., 2000). The concept of geoecology as an applied interdisciplinary social-and-natural science of geoecosystems (Bachynskyi, 1989) might be especially fruitful – it substitutes, to a great extent, classic "unified" geography, whose position is rather week nowadays. It is important now to develop geoecology from the conceptual level to the level of the
established interdisciplinary approach by means of case studies based on modern research techniques.

Ukrainian geoecology, also named as landscape ecology and landscape science, is facing challenges dealing with the integration into the international scientific framework and with the ability to contribute to the applied studies on ecosystem management, ecosystem services, and the economy of ecosystems and biodiversity. Although research techniques are crucial, a sound conceptual platform and adequate terminology, which can be efficiently used in a multi-lingual environment, are also very important for the transdisciplinary science. The real object of geoecology is a landscape as a portion of land, large enough to be mapped, embracing different physical, biotic, and social phenomena in their totality. A geoecosystem (GES) is a theoretical object of geoecology. It is a geospatial model of a real landscape, which represents relationships between one of the landscape properties, as the central (controlled) component, and some other properties as peripheral (controlling) components. The totality of landscape phenomena in their spatial differentiation can be comprehensively represented by the set complementary disciplinary GES (geomorphic, hydroclimatic, biotic, administrative, etc.).
A base geoecosystem (B-GES) is a general ecological and geographic model representing the most substantial properties of a landscape in their genetic relationships, and it serves as a common integrating basis for the special complementary GES. The controlled group of ecological components is represented by the land cover as a combination of biotic and cultural (societal) phenomena, including biotic communities, soils, artefacts, and human population, as well as by abiotic phenomena, such as microrelief, superficial geomorphic processes, microcliamte, water balance, etc. The land cover is controlled by the natural components, among which mega-/macro-/meso-relief has the principal role, and the external factors, which include societal framework conditions. The B-GES spatial structure is represented by the mosaic of ecological land cover classes, which can be delineated using remotely sensed spectral/texture data as well as topographic data. The hierarchy of B-GES spatial units is based on the hierarchy of landforms and embraces sub-local, local, regional, sub-global, and global scales.
Key words: econ, ecotope, ecochore, ecoregion, ecosphere, geoecosystem, land cover

The Sian Headwaters Basin (SHB) has an area of 1,190 km2, embraces low and middle mountains at the western periphery of the East Carpathians, and is a popular tourist destination. A viewshed geoecosystem (VGES) is interpreted as a geospatial socio-ecological model of a real landscape, which reveals relationships between the aesthetic value of the landscape view from an observation point and the morphogenic structure of the landscape within the visibility zone. Raster geographic information system (GIS) was applied to delineate eleven VGES using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission elevation data, as well as landform and land cover geodata sets, which were obtained during previous studies (Kuemmerle et al., 2006; Кулачковський and Круглов, 2008).
          Firstly, morphogenic landscape units (microecochores) were generated via overlay of landform and land cover classes. The metrics were derived describing the variety and contrast of the morphogenic units within the circular neighborhood of 500 m radius. Secondly, outstanding landscape objects, which increase the aesthetics value of VGES were singled out – these are highest ridgetops and the lake. Thirdly, the viewsheds were delineated, and their extent was limited to a 12 km visibility zone. The visibility deterioration was considered as a linear function of proximity to the observation point. The integral aesthetic attractiveness (IAA) was calculated as a multiplying overlay of the morphogenic structure variety and contrast values with the visibility values within the visibility zones. The obtained results were increased by 5-10 % per each outstanding landscape object in the viewshed and standardized. To derive the specific IAA, the obtained results were divided by the visibility zone area and standardized.
          The highest variety and contrast of landforms and land cover were revealed in the northern part of the SHB occupied by low mountains of Sian-Rika Verkhovyna. The outstanding landscape objects are represented by the highest ridges of the northern part of the study area belonging to Polonyny medium mountains, as well as by the Solinske Lake. The largest visibility zone of 115 km2 has the VGES of Polonyna Tsarynska Mnt., while the smallest – of Besiada Mnt (41 km2). The highest absolute and specific IAA has the viewshed of Yavir Mnt located in the low-mountain northern part of the SHB. The lowest IAA values are obtained for the viewshed of Ravka Mnt located at the southern periphery of the study area in the medium mountains. It turned out that low-mountain viewsheds are more aesthetically attractive than those of the medium mountains.
          Key words: geographic information systems, visibility zone, land cover, landforms, integral aesthetics attractiveness.

ABSTRACT The paper presents a methodology on how to consistently deal with the future change and management options in integrated water resources management (IWRM). It is based on a conceptual framework with a five step procedure for the formulation and analysis of a so-called ‘parameterised regional futures’. Developing and testing the approach for IWRM is realised for the upper part of the Western Bug River catchment (Ukraine). Special attention is paid to scenarios of change covering climate and land use. The future regional climate is downscaled with the model CCLM. Land cover is projected after retrospective change detection and the derivation of prospective algorithms. Parameters of the interrelations between land use and the water cycle are tackled through using the concept of the model PWF-LU. The methodology is currently being tested to analyse the impacts of mid-term regional change and management options on the water cycle of the catchment. KeywordsScenarios–Climate change–Land-use change–River catchment

The results can be explored in Google maps at:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zGA2AGak1sA8.kZnyKU5FAk5Q&usp=sharing

The Upper Western Bug Basin (UWBB) contributes to the gauging station in Kamianka-Buzka within the non-mountain densely populated part of Lviv region, Ukraine and has an area of 2 376 km2. A natural geoecosystem (NGES) is an ecological geospatial model of a real landscape, which represents genetic relations between the primary natural land cover (vegetation and soil) and its natural abiotic factors – landforms, parent rocks, and climate. The NGES concept is based on the notions of an ecosystem, of hierarchical spatial landscape units as geosystems, and of reconstructed (potential) natural vegetation.
Manual interpretation of topographic data, geological maps representing parent rock material, as well as of non-spatial ecological information (both published and collected in the field) allowed to distinguish seven classes of natural macro-ecochores – local NGES, which are delineated based on the mesorelief landform associations. The macro-ecochores of dissected interfluves were additionally fragmented into microecochores – local NGES commensurable with separate mesorelief landforms – using rule-based classification of topographic variables derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data. The micro-ecochores represent four topographic positions: 1) gentle concave and foot slopes, 2) flat watershed surfaces and rolling concave slopes, 3) convex watershed surfaces and rolling straight-convex slopes, and 4) steep slopes (concave-convex). Also, 12 individual micro-ecoregions were delineated and aggregated into three meso-ecoregions based on the morphostructural landforms. Areas and some landscape metrics indices were calculated for the ecoregions and the ecochores.
As a result, three geo-datasets of the 1:50,000 scale accuracy were created for the UWBB: 1) of natural macro-ecochores (polygons), 2) of natural macro- and micro-ecochores (raster), and 3) of meso- and micro-ecoregions (polygons). Natural ecochores of mesic mesotrophic and eutrophic pedunculate oak and European beech forests with grey forest soil are located on medium and high interfluves covered with loess-like loam, primary natural hydromesic oligotrophic oak-Scotts pine forests on soddy slightly podzolised soil occupy sandy low interfluves and alluvial terraces, while natural black alder formations prevail on alluvial and boggy soils in the valley bottoms of smaller streams and on the river flood plains. Among the micro-ecoregions, oak forests of wavy loess plains occupy the largest portion of the UWBB.
Key words: ecochore, ecoregion, landform, natural soil, natural vegetation, landscape metrics.

Boundaries of 43 administrative units (raions and oblast towns) were digitized and manually rectified using official schemes and satellite images. SRTM digital elevation data were used to calculate mean relative elevation and its standard deviation for each unit, as well as to delineate altitudinal bioclimatic belts and their portions within the units. These parameters were used to classify the units via agglomerative cluster analysis into nine environmental classes.
Key words: cluster analysis, digital elevation model, geoecosystem, geo-spatial analysis.

Map of the ecoregions is available at: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1TtR3-nTac9nFNY378FS0yw8nF1A&ll=48.655838728940374%2C23.666682141315277&z=8

SRTM data as well as geological, geomorphologic, and landscape maps and schemes were used to delineate 33 morphogenic meso-ecoregions using a GIS. The correspondence of the ecoregions to the tectonic units was established. The main morphometric parameters (mean absolute and relative elevations) and the area ratio of altitudinal bioclimatic belts were calculated for each region. The regions are grouped into five classes according to the geology features. Cluster analysis was used to delimit seven orographic classes based on the combinations of mean relative and absolute elevations of the regions. The analysis also afforded delineation of nine bioclimatic classes of ecoregions according to the area ratios of altitudinal bioclimatic belts. The obtained geo-data are useful for the sustainable development planning in the whole region, as stipulated in the Carpathian Convention.

Landsat TM/ETM+ images covering the whole Ukrainian section of the Carpathian Ecoregion and representing four time periods (1988–1989, 1994, 2000–2002, 2006–2007) were processed using SVM-classification and overlaid to detect changes in forest cover. The changes were analysed for the whole study area, for 33 individual meso-ecoregions and their seven orographic classes as well as for the 14 main river basins. The study showed decrease of forest disturbances, mainly caused by clear-cuttings, after 1988 and their slight increase after 2000 together with a significant increase of new forest succession areas. The obtained indices differ from those previously mentioned in Ukrainian publications. The distribution of the forest cover and its disturbances across the ecoregions and the basins reveals generally sustainable pattern – the stable forest cover increases with the growth of mean relative and absolute elevations. Relatively high recent disturbance rates in some meso-ecoregions, especially of low- and medium-mountains, are possibly caused by massive die-back of cultural spruce stands. However, it is not expedient to further increase the forest cover of the river basins and the region in general.

European Bison (Bison bonasus) barely escaped extinction in the early 20th century and now only occur in small isolated herds scattered across Central and Eastern Europe. The species’ survival in the wild depends on identifying suitable habitat for establishing bison metapopulations via reintroductions of new herds. We assessed European Bison habitat across the Carpathian Mountains, a stronghold of European Bison and one of the only places where a viable bison metapopulation may be possible. We used maximum entropy models to analyze herd range maps and habitat use data from radio-collared bison to identify key habitat variables and map European Bison habitat across the entire Carpathian ecoregion (210,000 km2). Forest cover (primarily core and perforated forests) and variables linked to human disturbance best predict bison habitat suitability. Bison show no clear preference for particular forest types but prefer managed grasslands over fallow and abandoned fields. Several large, suitable, but currently unoccupied habitat patches exist, particularly in the eastern Carpathians. This available suitable habitat suggests that European Bison have an opportunity to establish a viable Carpathian metapopulation, especially if recent trends of declining human pressure and reforestation of abandoned farmland continue. Our results also confirm the suitability of a proposed Romanian reintroduction site. Establishing the first European Bison metapopulation would be a milestone in efforts to conserve this species in the wild and demonstrate a significant and hopeful step towards conserving large grazers and their ecological roles in human-dominated landscapes across the globe.

Agricultural areas are declining in many areas of the world, often because socio-economic and political changes make agriculture less profitable. The transition from centralized to market-oriented economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union after 1989 represented major economic and political changes, yet the resulting rates and spatial pattern of post-socialist farmland abandonment remain largely unknown. Remote sensing offers unique opportunities to map farmland abandonment, but automated assessments are challenging because phenology and crop types often vary substantially. We developed a change detection method based on support vector machines (SVM) to map farmland abandonment in the border triangle of Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine in the Carpathians from Landsat TM/ETM+ images from 1986, 1988, and 2000. Our SVM-based approach yielded an accurate change map (overall accuracy = 90.9%; kappa = 0.82), underpinning the potential of SVM to map complex land-use change processes such as farmland abandonment. Farmland abandonment was widespread in the study area (16.1% of the farmland used in socialist times), likely due to decreasing profitability of agriculture after 1989. We also found substantial differences in abandonment among the countries (13.9% in Poland, 20.7% in Slovakia, and 13.3% in Ukraine), and between previously collectivized farmland and farmland that remained private during socialism in Poland. These differences are likely due to differences in socialist land ownership patterns, post-socialist land reform strategies, and rural population density.

Illegal logging is a major environmental and economic problem, and exceeds in some countries the amounts of legally harvested timber. In Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, illegal logging increased and reforestation on abandoned farmland was widespread after the breakdown of socialism, and the region's forest cover trends remain overall largely unclear. Our goal here was to map forest cover change and to assess the extent of illegal logging and reforestation in the Ukrainian Carpathians. We used Landsat TM/ETM+ images and Support Vector Machines (SVM) to derive forest change trajectories between 1988 and 2007 for the entire Ukrainian Carpathians. We calculated logging and reforestation rates, and compared Landsat-based forest trends to official statistics and inventory maps. Our classification resulted in reliable forest/non-forest maps (overall accuracies between 97.1%–98.01%) and high clear cut detection rates (on average 89.4%). Forest cover change was widespread in the Ukrainian Carpathians between 1988 and 2007. We found forest cover increase in peripheral areas, forest loss in the interior Carpathians, and increased logging in remote areas. Overall, our results suggest that unsustainable forest use from socialist times likely persisted in the post-socialist period, resulting in a continued loss of older forests and forest fragmentation. Landsat-based forest trends differed substantially from official forest resource statistics. Illegal logging appears to have been at least as extensive as documented logging during the early 1990s and so-called sanitary clear-cuts represent a major loophole for overharvesting and logging in restricted areas. Reforestation and illegal logging are frequently not accounted for in forest resource statistics, highlighting limitations of these data. Combating illegal logging and transitioning towards sustainable forestry requires better monitoring and up-to-date accounting of forest resources, in the Carpathians and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, and remote sensing can be a key technology to achieve these goals.

Farmland abandonment restructures rural landscapes in many regions worldwide in response to gradual industrialization and urbanization. In contrast, the political breakdown in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union triggered rapid and widespread farmland abandonment, but the spatial patterns of abandonment and its drivers are not well understood. Our goal was to map post-socialist farmland abandonment in Western Ukraine using Landsat images from 1986 to 2008, and to identify spatial determinants of abandonment using a combination of best-subsets linear regression models and hierarchical partitioning. Our results suggest that farmland abandonment was widespread in the study region, with abandonment rates of up to 56%. In total, 6600 km2 (30%) of the farmland used during socialism was abandoned after 1991. Topography, soil type, and population variables were the most important predictors to explain substantial spatial variation in abandonment rates. However, many of our a priori hypotheses about the direction of variable influence were rejected. Most importantly, abandonment rates were higher in the plains and lower in marginal areas. The growing importance of subsistence farming in the transition period, as well as off-farm income and remittances likely explain these patterns. The breakdown of socialism appears to have resulted in fundamentally different abandonment patterns in the Western Ukraine, where abandonment was a result of the institutional and economic shock, compared to those in Europe's West, where abandonment resulted from long-term socio-economic transformation such as urbanization and industrialization.▶ Topographic marginality not a major driver of abandonment in Western Ukraine. ▶ Subsistence in mountain region and better income in cities important drivers. ▶ Farmland abandonment in Ukraine follows opposite rules than in Western Europe. ▶ Generalization of abandonment across regions hardly possible.

Ця монографія обґрунтовує трансдисциплінарну геоекологію як голістичну науку, яка вивчає геопросторові аспекти екологічних процесів і забезпечує підтримку менеджменту екосистемних послуг у взаємодії зі стейкголдерами (заінтересованими сторонами у суспільстві). Трансдисциплінарна геоекологія використовує методи різних географічних і екологічних дисциплін, інтегрує їх на підставі концепції геоекологічного комплексу як тотальної геоекосистеми та реалізує за допомогою технологій геоматики. Зміст цього дослідження розкривають п’ять розділів.