- Peshawar, Pakistan
- University of Kentucky, Gatton College of Business and Economics, Department MemberUniversity Of Peshawar, INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES (IMS), Faculty Memberadd
- My research interests include corporate finance, Islamic banking & finance, and financial accounting. Specifically, a... moreMy research interests include corporate finance, Islamic banking & finance, and financial accounting. Specifically, analyzing the relationship between country-specific variables and financial decisions of companies. I am interested in exploring companies’ decisions and historically generated social and cultural variables including law, judicial efficiency, gender dynamics, corporate governance, shareholder rights, creditor rights, rule of law, and religion.edit
Stewardship theory of corporate governance is a normative alternative to agency theory. This article argues that the stewardship behaviour of managers results in exemplary corporate governance practices when the espoused values of the... more
Stewardship theory of corporate governance is a normative alternative to agency theory. This article argues that the stewardship behaviour of managers results in exemplary corporate governance practices when the espoused values of the firm are aligned with the enacted values. The case study method is used to prove this argument by studying corporate governance practices in a family-owned business group in India. The Murugappa Group is a 100-year-old family-owned business group, known for their ethical practices and currently managed by the fourth-generation family members, without undergoing any split. The espoused as well enacted values of the group are studied and corporate governance practices of the group firms analysed in this article. The article focuses on the governance structure of the group, its succession planning practices and the ownership structure. The analysis indicates that aligning the enacted values with the espoused value helped the group to adapt itself to the c...
Research Interests:
PurposeFinancial shenanigans are the omissions or actions undertaken with the purpose of misrepresenting an organisation's financial statements. Many examples now exist of such behaviour emerging in the context of a desire to deceive... more
PurposeFinancial shenanigans are the omissions or actions undertaken with the purpose of misrepresenting an organisation's financial statements. Many examples now exist of such behaviour emerging in the context of a desire to deceive the users of financial reports. In this context, research has illustrated how investors can find themselves impacted by such behaviour, with incorrect decision-making around investment decisions being a major issue. However, auditors' perspectives, of obvious importance in such scenarios, given these individuals' role in attesting to the veracity of financial disclosures, have not been investigated. The aim of this study is to address this gap by seeking the experiences of auditors in the developing nation of Pakistan, an environment in which the significant impact of financial improprieties is well-documented.Design/methodology/approachInterviews with 50 Pakistani-based auditors were conducted to gather perceptions about the nature and prev...
Research Interests:
Purpose – This paper aims to explore corporate governance (CG) and succession planning in family-owned businesses in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews are conducted with 16 owners and... more
Purpose – This paper aims to explore corporate governance (CG) and succession planning in family-owned
businesses in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews are conducted with 16 owners and heirs of
UAE family businesses. The interviews – face-to-face and asynchronous electronic – are conducted instead of a
questionnaire to get an in-depth analysis of the topic in the context of both medium- and large-sized family businesses.
Findings – The responses are mixed with regard to governance challenges (duality, gender, internal control,
transparency, etc.). The majority of the interviewees indicate that succession planning remains one of the biggest
challenges for family businesses in the UAE. Fifteen of the sixteen interviewees document that a sound succession
strategy must be in place to ensure the continuity of the business and prevent future disputes among potential
successors. Similarly, the respondents also emphasise the importance of transparency and accountability for the
sustainability of family businesses. The sustainability of family businesses relies on many aspects, such as national
regulations, corporate systems and the succession process. Finally, most of the respondents from medium-sized
companies opined that incorporating CG is a time-consuming and expensive process.
Practical implications – The interviewees supported stewardship theory in case family members are
occupying positions on the board as they have more long-term commitment and a greater sense of belonging to the
business (socio-emotional wealth) compared to non-family members. The interviewees acknowledge that the lack of
professionalism and conflicts of interest among family members can be offset by recruiting non-family members.
Originality/value – Family businesses are particularly significant in the Arab world as they account for
over 60% of gross domestic product (GDP) and use above 80% of the workforce which make them interesting
research subject. In addition, this paper explores the CG challenges faced by both large- and medium-sized
family businesses in the UAE within the theoretical framework of stewardship theory.
businesses in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews are conducted with 16 owners and heirs of
UAE family businesses. The interviews – face-to-face and asynchronous electronic – are conducted instead of a
questionnaire to get an in-depth analysis of the topic in the context of both medium- and large-sized family businesses.
Findings – The responses are mixed with regard to governance challenges (duality, gender, internal control,
transparency, etc.). The majority of the interviewees indicate that succession planning remains one of the biggest
challenges for family businesses in the UAE. Fifteen of the sixteen interviewees document that a sound succession
strategy must be in place to ensure the continuity of the business and prevent future disputes among potential
successors. Similarly, the respondents also emphasise the importance of transparency and accountability for the
sustainability of family businesses. The sustainability of family businesses relies on many aspects, such as national
regulations, corporate systems and the succession process. Finally, most of the respondents from medium-sized
companies opined that incorporating CG is a time-consuming and expensive process.
Practical implications – The interviewees supported stewardship theory in case family members are
occupying positions on the board as they have more long-term commitment and a greater sense of belonging to the
business (socio-emotional wealth) compared to non-family members. The interviewees acknowledge that the lack of
professionalism and conflicts of interest among family members can be offset by recruiting non-family members.
Originality/value – Family businesses are particularly significant in the Arab world as they account for
over 60% of gross domestic product (GDP) and use above 80% of the workforce which make them interesting
research subject. In addition, this paper explores the CG challenges faced by both large- and medium-sized
family businesses in the UAE within the theoretical framework of stewardship theory.
Research Interests:
Purpose Financial shenanigans are the omissions or actions undertaken with the purpose of misrepresenting an organisation's financial statements. Many examples now exist of such behaviour emerging in the context of a desire to deceive the... more
Purpose
Financial shenanigans are the omissions or actions undertaken with the purpose of misrepresenting an organisation's financial statements. Many examples now exist of such behaviour emerging in the context of a desire to deceive the users of financial reports. In this context, research has illustrated how investors can find themselves impacted by such behaviour, with incorrect decision-making around investment decisions being a major issue. However, auditors' perspectives, of obvious importance in such scenarios, given these individuals' role in attesting to the veracity of financial disclosures, have not been investigated. The aim of this study is to address this gap by seeking the experiences of auditors in the developing nation of Pakistan, an environment in which the significant impact of financial improprieties is well-documented.
Design/methodology/approach
Interviews with 50 Pakistani-based auditors were conducted to gather perceptions about the nature and prevalence of financial shenanigans. The questions posed were structured to address issues relating to both the drivers of and methods used to operationalise financial malfeasance.
Findings
The views expressed by the participants suggest that this type of malpractice is common, with a variety of forms employed and a level of audacity and shamelessness is striking. The results indicate the absence of the three institutional pillars conventionally associated with motivating organisational attempts to legitimise behaviour and maintain social contracts. When considered alongside recent findings that the audit profession in Pakistan may not always play an effective monitoring role, we argue that the evidence suggests the existence of motivations for legitimising strategies are not yet fully understood.
Research limitations/implications
This contention helps address recent calls for investigation of issues around legitimising tendencies where theoretical understanding is incomplete. A full understanding of the embedded practices will provide capital providers with the opportunity to make more informed decisions regarding their investments in Pakistani firms by highlighting the financial shenanigans involved, including the sheer audacity apparently associated with the observed behaviour.
Originality/value
Earnings management and auditing have not been studied widely in Pakistan despite the abundant and persistent nature of corporate scandals across the nation for many decades. Whilst implementation (and enforcement) of some accounting and auditing standards have taken place recently, the financial collapses continue, and understanding regarding the on-going fraud is urgently needed. The extent and shameless nature of the perceived behaviour are striking, suggesting that those closest to financial reporting in Pakistan see fraudulent financial reporting as being close to, if not yet fully representative of, normal practice.
Financial shenanigans are the omissions or actions undertaken with the purpose of misrepresenting an organisation's financial statements. Many examples now exist of such behaviour emerging in the context of a desire to deceive the users of financial reports. In this context, research has illustrated how investors can find themselves impacted by such behaviour, with incorrect decision-making around investment decisions being a major issue. However, auditors' perspectives, of obvious importance in such scenarios, given these individuals' role in attesting to the veracity of financial disclosures, have not been investigated. The aim of this study is to address this gap by seeking the experiences of auditors in the developing nation of Pakistan, an environment in which the significant impact of financial improprieties is well-documented.
Design/methodology/approach
Interviews with 50 Pakistani-based auditors were conducted to gather perceptions about the nature and prevalence of financial shenanigans. The questions posed were structured to address issues relating to both the drivers of and methods used to operationalise financial malfeasance.
Findings
The views expressed by the participants suggest that this type of malpractice is common, with a variety of forms employed and a level of audacity and shamelessness is striking. The results indicate the absence of the three institutional pillars conventionally associated with motivating organisational attempts to legitimise behaviour and maintain social contracts. When considered alongside recent findings that the audit profession in Pakistan may not always play an effective monitoring role, we argue that the evidence suggests the existence of motivations for legitimising strategies are not yet fully understood.
Research limitations/implications
This contention helps address recent calls for investigation of issues around legitimising tendencies where theoretical understanding is incomplete. A full understanding of the embedded practices will provide capital providers with the opportunity to make more informed decisions regarding their investments in Pakistani firms by highlighting the financial shenanigans involved, including the sheer audacity apparently associated with the observed behaviour.
Originality/value
Earnings management and auditing have not been studied widely in Pakistan despite the abundant and persistent nature of corporate scandals across the nation for many decades. Whilst implementation (and enforcement) of some accounting and auditing standards have taken place recently, the financial collapses continue, and understanding regarding the on-going fraud is urgently needed. The extent and shameless nature of the perceived behaviour are striking, suggesting that those closest to financial reporting in Pakistan see fraudulent financial reporting as being close to, if not yet fully representative of, normal practice.
Research Interests:
Purpose The aim of this study is to examine the perceptions of consumers on Islamic banking and finance in Pakistan. Islamic finance is an emerging phenomenon, and its survival depends on the availability, affordability and awareness.... more
Purpose The aim of this study is to examine the perceptions of consumers on Islamic banking and finance in Pakistan. Islamic finance is an emerging phenomenon, and its survival depends on the availability, affordability and awareness. This paper attempts to fill the gap in the literature by exploring the perceptions of consumers and bankers in an attempt to gain insights so that the availability of products and awareness can be increased. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a regression model by using perception as a dependent variable and awareness, knowledge and religious motivation as independent variables. Primary data is collected using 150 questionnaires distributed amongst finance students in several universities and employees of Islamic banks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province of Pakistan. Findings The findings reveal that overall consumers’ perception is positive about Islamic banking and finance in Pakistan. Statistical analysis shows that awareness, knowledge...
Research Interests:
This paper analyses herding behaviour in the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX, formerly known as Karachi stock exchange, KSE) for a sample of 663 firms over a period of 13 years, from 2004 to 2017. For detecting herding behaviour, two... more
This paper analyses herding behaviour in the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX, formerly known as Karachi stock exchange, KSE) for a sample of 663 firms over a period of 13 years, from 2004 to 2017. For detecting herding behaviour, two dependent variables are used, i.e., cross-sectional standard deviation (CSSD) of Christie and Huang (1995) and cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of Chang et al. (2000). The results show no herding behaviour on the basis of both methods at different levels of market movements. The absence of the herding behaviour may be because these firms belong to different sectors which may follow their respective industry portfolios but not the overall market; for example, Shah et al. (2017) documented that firms in several industries herd toward their industry portfolios for Pakistani data. Future research can be done using a primary data collection method from investors about their opinion on herding behaviour.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Question: Does the introduction of Key Audit Matters (KAMs) increase audit quality and reduce agency cost associated with it? Does the introduction of KAMs decrease Earnings Management (EM) and agency cost associated with it?... more
Research Question: Does the introduction of Key Audit Matters (KAMs) increase audit quality and reduce agency cost associated with it? Does the introduction of KAMs decrease Earnings Management (EM) and agency cost associated with it? Motivation: There have been many studies in the past few years testing the impact of KAMs on the quality of the audit and EM in the developed economies like the United States and United Kingdom, however very few studies exist in the context of the UAE. Moreover, many studies on this topic uses quantitative techniques whereas this study employs qualitative method of interview to judge the perception of auditors about the audit quality and EM in the UAE after the introduction of KAMs. Idea: The research seeks the perception of auditors about the quality of audit and EM after the introduction of communicating KAMs in the UAE. Vol. 20, No. 2 of stringent audit regulatory body lead to effect the overall quality of the audit. The government should implement ...
Research Interests:
This study examines market efficiency in the light of the simple moving average technical trading rules on daily closing share prices of 100 companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange over ten years from 2006 to 2015. The results show... more
This study examines market efficiency in the light of the simple moving average technical trading rules on daily closing share prices of 100 companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange over ten years from 2006 to 2015. The results show strong support for simple moving average rules having both predictability and profitability for PSX. It refers that the returns from these rules are not same as investors earn from a naïve buy and hold strategy. The uses of these simple moving average rules produce abnormal returns to investors and hence nullify the weak form of efficiency on PSX.
We investigate whether crosscountry differences in the legal system influence demand-side credit constraints. We explore the notion of discouraged borrowersfirms that choose not to apply for bank credit because they anticipate rejection.... more
We investigate whether crosscountry differences in the legal system influence demand-side credit constraints. We explore the notion of discouraged borrowersfirms that choose not to apply for bank credit because they anticipate rejection. Employing survey data from 46 economies, we find that rapid and less costly court proceedings, lower procedural complexity in court processes, and higher recovery rates under bankruptcy lead to the lower likelihood of borrower discouragement. These results are more pronounced in countries with strong creditor protections in relation to company reorganization and liquidation. The results corroborate the supply-side view that strong creditor rights and their efficient enforceability alleviate banks' participation constraints in the loan market, thereby encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises to apply for credit in the first place. We also find that differences in institutional settings, such as higher regulatory quality, better control of corruption, and the rule of law, lead to lower rates of credit self-rationing in the loan market.
Research Interests:
National Finance Commission (NFC) award is an arrangement for distribution of financial resources among federating units of Pakistan. The federal government has two sources of revenue i.e., tax income and non-tax income. The tax income is... more
National Finance Commission (NFC) award is an arrangement for distribution of financial resources among federating units of Pakistan. The federal government has two sources of revenue i.e., tax income and non-tax income. The tax income is the divisible part under the NFC award. First, vertical distribution of divisible pool is decided between the federal government and four provinces i.e., Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, and Punjab. Subsequently horizontal distribution among the provinces takes place. The current arrangement under the 7 th NFC award is such that out of gross divisible income, the first 1% goes to KP as reconstruction relief due to 'War on Terror', and 0.66% goes to Sindh as compensation for abolishment of Octrio and Zila Tax in 1997; afterwards 57.5% goes to four provinces and the remaining income comes under the domain of federal government. The federal government pays for its obligations under its domain including debt servicing, defense, salaries and pension of federal employees and development and non-development funds to three territories of Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK), Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and erstwhile Federally Administrated Tribal area (FATA). It is important to note that there is defined formula to distribute the 57.5% revenue only among four provinces, not for the territories of AJK and GB. Moreover, Clause 3(A) of Article 160 of the Constitution says that the share of provinces in the new NFC award will not be less than prescribed share in the previous Award (i.e., 57.5%). The paper addresses the question that after the merger of FATA with KP, what percentage of divisible income should be assigned to GB and AJK? Currently, the distribution of resources to AJK and GB is on adhoc basis and at the discretion of federal government since these territories are not permanent members of NFC award. The findings of the research suggests two tiers solution to this issue based on the principle of 'inclusiveness' instead of 'othering'. First, there should be constitutional amendments to provide permanent membership to AJK and GB in the award while bringing them in 'fiscal federalism' without 'political federalism'. Second, both territories should be accommodated in horizontal formula of distribution of NFC award while increasing the proportional ratio in vertical distribution of 57.5% followed by measures for fiscal equalization and adjustment.
Research Interests:
This study examines the views of accounting professionals (university graduates) about the Accounting education in Pakistan. The study investigates problems, causes and suggestions for future improvements in the accounting education of... more
This study examines the views of accounting professionals (university graduates) about the Accounting education in Pakistan. The study investigates problems, causes and suggestions for future improvements in the accounting education of Pakistan. The analysis is done through thematic analysis of the semi-structured interviews with 50 accounting professionals in various sectors of Pakistan's labor market. The interview method is employed to have a detailed and in-depth discussion with the practitioners about the subject matter. The research identifies three major problems of accounting education in Pakistan i.e., deficiency of skills, gap between theory and practice, and non-completion of accounting courses during their classes. The respondents provided suggestions to fix these problems through different means, such as the revision of curriculum, provision of internships for students, introduction of accounting software, arrangement of training workshops for teachers as well as students, and compliance from Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan for standardization and harmonization of accounting education in various universities. The findings can be used by different stakeholders (including Universities, accounting firms and the HEC) to improve the standard of accounting education in Pakistan.
Research Interests:
This paper analyses herding behaviour in the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX, formerly known as Karachi stock exchange, KSE) for a sample of 663 firms over a period of 13 years, from 2004 to 2017. For detecting herding behaviour, two... more
This paper analyses herding behaviour in the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX, formerly known as Karachi stock exchange, KSE) for a sample of 663 firms over a period of 13 years, from 2004 to 2017. For detecting herding behaviour, two dependent variables are used, i.e., cross-sectional standard deviation (CSSD) of Christie and Huang (1995) and cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of Chang et al. (2000). The results show no herding behaviour on the basis of both methods at different levels of market movements. The absence of the herding behaviour may be because these firms belong to different sectors which may follow their respective industry portfolios but not the overall market; for example, Shah et al. (2017) documented that firms in several industries herd toward their industry portfolios for Pakistani data. Future research can be done using a primary data collection method from investors about their opinion on herding behaviour.
Research Interests:
This paper investigates the impact of futures contracts (FC) on volatility of stock prices using firm-level data of Pakistan-Stock-Exchange (PSX) from 1999 to 2015. GARCH model is used in this paper to examine initiation of FC on... more
This paper investigates the impact of futures contracts (FC) on volatility of stock prices using firm-level data of Pakistan-Stock-Exchange (PSX) from 1999 to 2015. GARCH model is used in this paper to examine initiation of FC on volatility. The results propose that after the initiation of FC, the stock price volatility of 17 companies stabilizes, whereas the stock price volatility of four companies destabilizes and for the seven companies it does not change. Hence, on average, the findings support the stabilization hypothesis which asserts that introduction of derivatives stabilizes the market. The finding supports the theories that derivative securities expand investors' choices for investment. The results of the study encourage the investors to invest in derivatives and the regulators should encourage derivatives market as it stabilizes the volatility.
Research Interests:
This paper investigates the conditional association between betas and returns in sample of 206 firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The results of this study show that the relationship between betas and stock returns is flat... more
This paper investigates the conditional association between betas and returns in sample of 206 firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The results of this study show that the relationship between betas and stock returns is flat when tested unconditionally. However, when the data is split between up and down-market weeks, then there exists a conditional relationship between risk and returns. The results support the view that beta is still a valid tool for risk measurement in an emerging market of Pakistan. This paper tests the robustness of the results by including several other measures of total and unsystematic risk such as variance, skewness, kurtosis and standard error alongside beta in the conditional CAPM regressions. These additional tests do not change our main conclusion.
Research Interests:
A comparison of the Islamic Banking products offered in the two countries of Pakistan and Malaysia has been discussed in this paper. The research paper uses document analysis to identify different products offered by five full-fledged... more
A comparison of the Islamic Banking products offered in the two
countries of Pakistan and Malaysia has been discussed in this
paper. The research paper uses document analysis to identify
different products offered by five full-fledged Islamic banks in
Malaysia and Pakistan. It is evident from the research that Islamic
banking sector in Pakistan is not tapping its full growth potential
as in case of Malaysia. It is also concluded that the trade financing
and asset financing products offered by Islamic banks in Malaysia
are more diverse than the products offered by its counterparts in
Pakistan. The paper gives insight to the Shariah complaint board
to introduce new products while learning from the experience of
other countries. This research does not focus on investigating the
reasons behind these differences; however, it initiates a discourse
in this direction.
countries of Pakistan and Malaysia has been discussed in this
paper. The research paper uses document analysis to identify
different products offered by five full-fledged Islamic banks in
Malaysia and Pakistan. It is evident from the research that Islamic
banking sector in Pakistan is not tapping its full growth potential
as in case of Malaysia. It is also concluded that the trade financing
and asset financing products offered by Islamic banks in Malaysia
are more diverse than the products offered by its counterparts in
Pakistan. The paper gives insight to the Shariah complaint board
to introduce new products while learning from the experience of
other countries. This research does not focus on investigating the
reasons behind these differences; however, it initiates a discourse
in this direction.
Research Interests:
This study investigates Islamic calendar anomalies in Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), using KSE-100 Index data over the period 1991-2014. The findings show significant volatility of stock returns during Islamic months of Safar,... more
This study investigates Islamic calendar anomalies in Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), using KSE-100 Index data over the period 1991-2014. The findings show significant volatility of stock returns during Islamic months of Safar, Rabbi-ul-Awwal and Zil-hajj. However, there is no evidence of abnormal returns in any Islamic month. These findings do not provide a compelling evidence of Islamic calendar anomalies in Pakistani market.
Research Interests:
This paper particularly addresses the impact of mergers and acquisition (M&A) announcements on share prices in Pakistani stock market from 2006 to 2014. It uses event study method for a sample of 32 M&A announcements from both financial... more
This paper particularly addresses the impact of mergers and acquisition (M&A) announcements on share prices in Pakistani stock market from 2006 to 2014. It uses event study method for a sample of 32 M&A announcements from both financial and non-financial sectors. The result shows that M&A declarations do not signal any significant information to Pakistani market. Therefore, the findings show statistically insignificant abnormal returns on announcements of M&A, however a significant positive abnormal return just before proclamation of merger and acquisitions is noted. Similarly, the bidder firms show significant share price reaction and also some gains before the announcement which may be because of leakage of information (Khan, 2011). While after the declaration both target and bidder firms experience losses but overall conclusion detects that the target companies get fewer abnormal earnings as compared to acquirer firms in case of acquisitions. The insignificant unexpected returns on announcement date of M&A do not support semi-strong form of EMH. The findings of this study help investors in devising their investment strategies based on the timing of important announcements by companies such as M&A.
Research Interests:
A B S T R A C T This paper analyses the impact of capital gains taxation (CGT) on dividend policy among firms that are listed at the Karachi Stock Exchange (now, Pakistan Stock Exchange or PSX). The reason for choosing the Pakistani... more
A B S T R A C T This paper analyses the impact of capital gains taxation (CGT) on dividend policy among firms that are listed at the Karachi Stock Exchange (now, Pakistan Stock Exchange or PSX). The reason for choosing the Pakistani market is the country's idiosyncratic taxation system regarding dividend and capital gains. In Pakistan, capital gains were tax-free and taxation of capital gains was levied for the first time beginning July 2010. This motivates us to study the special case of Pakistani market regarding the relationship between the imposition of capital gains taxation and the pattern of dividend payouts. For this purpose, we use both the static and dynamic panel data models (generalized methods of moments) to analyze dividend payment behavior for a sample of 284 non-financial firms listed at the PSX from the years 2006–2014. We use the dividends to total assets ratio as a dependent variable and a taxation dummy along with other control variables such as liquidity, leverage, profitability, last year's dividend and firm size, as explanatory variables. Results of the regressions show that capital gains tax has no impact on dividend payments, while profitability, leverage, and last year's dividend are the most significant determinants of dividend payments in the Pakistani market.
Research Interests:
This research is an empirical investigation of the weak form of efficiency of the Ka-rachi Stock Exchange (KSE-100) Index, which is the prominent index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (formerly Karachi Stock Exchange). The contribution of this... more
This research is an empirical investigation of the weak form of efficiency of the Ka-rachi Stock Exchange (KSE-100) Index, which is the prominent index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (formerly Karachi Stock Exchange). The contribution of this paper is to analyze a longer 24 years' sample period (1991-2015) with three frequencies of data – daily, weekly and monthly index returns. The results show that return series of three frequencies have a negatively skewed, leptokurtic and non-normal distribution. The non-parametric Phillips-Perron (PP) test and parametric Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test rejected the non-stationarity hypothesis for index returns at the level for all daily, weekly and monthly data. The auto-correlation of randomness for the chosen period rejected the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for daily and weekly index returns but documented the existence of RWH for monthly index returns. Lastly, the findings of run tests show market inefficiency on daily and weekly data and efficiency for monthly returns. The findings are not consistent with efficiency theory as the stock returns do not follow the random walk hypothesis and hence nullify weak form of efficiency for daily and weekly returns. However, the research documents weak-form of efficiency for monthly returns; the existence of randomness in monthly data is not surprising for an emerging market like Pakistan which does not have a long memory to remember previous monthly prices. Positioned upon weak form of efficiency assumption, the investors on the KSE can make abnormal returns on the basis of historical share prices (Malhotra, Tandon, & Tandon, 2015). The concept of market efficiency is important for analysts, for investor's investment decisions, and regulators of stock exchange to improve the flow of information. Further research can be done with more sophisticated techniques of testing weak form of efficiency.
Research Interests:
This paper investigates the information content (signalling) of dividend announcements by firms listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2005 to 2009. This sample period was selected in order to avoid contamination of... more
This paper investigates the information content (signalling) of dividend announcements by firms listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2005 to 2009. This sample period was selected in order to avoid contamination of the dividend signal with a capital gains tax effect since a capital gains tax was introduced in Pakistan from 2010 onward. The paper contributes significantly to literature about the Pakistani market which has a unique institutional background. The findings show that no significant unexpected returns can be earned on the announcement date by trading on dividend news in Pakistan. It supports the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. The results also show that earnings are the dominant signal rather than the dividend announced. Moreover, there is some evidence of information leakage as significant unexpected returns were uncovered two days before the dividend announcements.
Research Interests:
The study examines the relationship between stock price and earnings-per-share for firms listed on the Karachi Stock Market (KSE) of Pakistan. The paper explores the phenomena of mean reversion which refers that the stock prices tend to... more
The study examines the relationship between stock price and earnings-per-share for firms listed on the Karachi Stock Market (KSE) of Pakistan. The paper explores the phenomena of mean reversion which refers that the stock prices tend to move towards their average price over time. The stimulus for studying the phenomenon is the fact that less work has been conducted in emerging markets such as Pakistan. The data has been extracted from Karachi stock exchange and method used to find out relationship is random effect regression while using panel data. The results indicate that there is positive and significant relationship between the stock prices and earnings-per-share (EPS) which refers to the existence of mean reversion process. In addition, stock prices look to change with firm fundamentals, in the long-run and on average, but not essentially at the similar proportion and this relationship can help an investor to predict the stock prices with the help of earning per share.
Research Interests:
This study is an attempt to calculate risk factor with the help of Value at Risk (VaR) by Pakistani banks. VaR is the tool that gives accurate calculations that the investor will not incur more than the expected loss. The study discusses... more
This study is an attempt to calculate risk factor with the help of Value at Risk (VaR) by Pakistani banks. VaR is the tool that gives accurate calculations that the investor will not incur more than the expected loss. The study discusses in detail three major approaches of VaR – Parametric Variance-Covariance; non-parametric historical simulation and non-parametric Monte Carlo Simulation, for a sample of 18 banks listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over a period of 10 years (2004-2013). The study is important in the sense that it examines banks as financial institutions since VaR emerged after the collapse of Bretton Wood system and many banks experienced large foreign currency loss. The data has been extracted from the official website of KSE for which exploratory approach is adopted. The results from the three methods give different values of VaR which are very much distinct from each other. For example, the value of VaR for a single day with 95% confidence level for Bank Alfalah is: Rs. 117068 for variance covariance method; Rs. 54974.78 for historical method and Rs. 70804.30 for Monte Carlo simulation method. The results suggest that organizations should not rely on a single method of calculating VaR which may lead to over or underestimation of risk factor. In addition, there has been little work on the topic in the context of Pakistan, which will provide a good stepping stone for the future research.
Research Interests:
Purpose The current paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by analyzing the nature of volatility of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) -100 index and also develops an understanding as to which model proves to be the most suitable... more
Purpose
The current paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by analyzing the nature of volatility of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) -100 index and also develops an understanding as to which model proves to be the most suitable model for measuring volatility among the models used. The study contributes significantly to the literature as compared to the limited previous work done in Pakistan as it covers a longer time period from the introduction of the KSE-100 index on November 2, 1991 to December 31, 2013 for three types of data i.e., daily, weekly and monthly. In addition, to analyze the impact of global financial crises upon volatility, the data is divided into pre-crisis (1991-2007) and post-crisis (2008-2013) periods.
Design/Methodology/Approach
This study employs an advanced set of volatility models such as Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [ARCH (1)]; Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [GARCH (1, 1)]; GARCH in Mean [GARCH-M (1, 1)]; Exponential GARCH [E-GARCH (1, 1)]; Threshold GARCH [T-GARCH (1, 1)]; Power GARCH [P-GARCH (1, 1)] and also a simple Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) model.
Findings
The results reveal that daily, weekly and monthly return series show non-normal distribution, stationarity, and volatility clustering. However, the heteroscedasticity is absent only in the monthly returns making only EWMA model to be used in monthly series to measure the volatility level. P-GARCH (1, 1) model proves to be a better model for modeling the volatility in case of daily returns; while regarding the weekly data GARCH (1, 1) model proves to be the most appropriate based on SIC and LL criterion. The study shows a high persistence of volatility, a mean reverting process, and absence of risk premium in the KSE market with an insignificant leverage effect only in case of weekly returns; however a significant leverage effect is reported regarding the daily series of the KSE-100 index. In addition, to analyze the impact of global financial crises upon volatility, the findings show that sub-periods demonstrated a slightly low volatility and global economic crisis did not cause a rise in volatility level.
Originality/Value
The literature about the volatility modeling in the Pakistan market depicts a limited literature focus on few models for relatively small sample size. The current thesis attempts to overcome these limitations and employs diverse models for three types of data series (daily, weekly and monthly). In addition, Pakistani economy shows turmoil throughout its history, which ranges from mild shocks to extreme shocks. This paper measures the impact of those shocks upon the volatility level of the KSE.
Applications
The research provides some insights for policy makers as well as investors who are concerned about the fluctuations of the KSE-100 index in Pakistan. For example, the significant ARCH effect may imply that the institutional investors who do not trade very frequently also hold dominance with respect to the movement of the price of stocks. As when they trade, it is in the large bulk and this heavy trade holds a significant impact on the price movements of the stock (Husain and Uppal, 1999). The skewness with the negative value in all return series imply that there are more chances of earning negative returns than the positive returns which refers towards the conservative attitude of investors towards investment in the KSE market (Mittal and Goyal, 2012; Kaluo and Friday, 2012).. The findings also reveal a high persistence of volatility and it contributes to the existence of the impact of shock, observed in present, for a longer time on future returns. The high volatility presence makes it possible to earn high profit but it also leads towards an inefficient market (Mittal and Goyal, 2012). A presence of an insignificant risk premium implies that investors are unable to earn returns above the average by taking the higher risk. The leverage parameter finds significance in case of daily returns which implies that negative shocks account for the greater volatility in the KSE market; however, the weekly data do not reveal significant asymmetrical or leverage effect.
Key Words: ARCH, GARCH, EWMA, Global Financial Crisis, Pakistan, Volatility
The current paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by analyzing the nature of volatility of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) -100 index and also develops an understanding as to which model proves to be the most suitable model for measuring volatility among the models used. The study contributes significantly to the literature as compared to the limited previous work done in Pakistan as it covers a longer time period from the introduction of the KSE-100 index on November 2, 1991 to December 31, 2013 for three types of data i.e., daily, weekly and monthly. In addition, to analyze the impact of global financial crises upon volatility, the data is divided into pre-crisis (1991-2007) and post-crisis (2008-2013) periods.
Design/Methodology/Approach
This study employs an advanced set of volatility models such as Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [ARCH (1)]; Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [GARCH (1, 1)]; GARCH in Mean [GARCH-M (1, 1)]; Exponential GARCH [E-GARCH (1, 1)]; Threshold GARCH [T-GARCH (1, 1)]; Power GARCH [P-GARCH (1, 1)] and also a simple Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) model.
Findings
The results reveal that daily, weekly and monthly return series show non-normal distribution, stationarity, and volatility clustering. However, the heteroscedasticity is absent only in the monthly returns making only EWMA model to be used in monthly series to measure the volatility level. P-GARCH (1, 1) model proves to be a better model for modeling the volatility in case of daily returns; while regarding the weekly data GARCH (1, 1) model proves to be the most appropriate based on SIC and LL criterion. The study shows a high persistence of volatility, a mean reverting process, and absence of risk premium in the KSE market with an insignificant leverage effect only in case of weekly returns; however a significant leverage effect is reported regarding the daily series of the KSE-100 index. In addition, to analyze the impact of global financial crises upon volatility, the findings show that sub-periods demonstrated a slightly low volatility and global economic crisis did not cause a rise in volatility level.
Originality/Value
The literature about the volatility modeling in the Pakistan market depicts a limited literature focus on few models for relatively small sample size. The current thesis attempts to overcome these limitations and employs diverse models for three types of data series (daily, weekly and monthly). In addition, Pakistani economy shows turmoil throughout its history, which ranges from mild shocks to extreme shocks. This paper measures the impact of those shocks upon the volatility level of the KSE.
Applications
The research provides some insights for policy makers as well as investors who are concerned about the fluctuations of the KSE-100 index in Pakistan. For example, the significant ARCH effect may imply that the institutional investors who do not trade very frequently also hold dominance with respect to the movement of the price of stocks. As when they trade, it is in the large bulk and this heavy trade holds a significant impact on the price movements of the stock (Husain and Uppal, 1999). The skewness with the negative value in all return series imply that there are more chances of earning negative returns than the positive returns which refers towards the conservative attitude of investors towards investment in the KSE market (Mittal and Goyal, 2012; Kaluo and Friday, 2012).. The findings also reveal a high persistence of volatility and it contributes to the existence of the impact of shock, observed in present, for a longer time on future returns. The high volatility presence makes it possible to earn high profit but it also leads towards an inefficient market (Mittal and Goyal, 2012). A presence of an insignificant risk premium implies that investors are unable to earn returns above the average by taking the higher risk. The leverage parameter finds significance in case of daily returns which implies that negative shocks account for the greater volatility in the KSE market; however, the weekly data do not reveal significant asymmetrical or leverage effect.
Key Words: ARCH, GARCH, EWMA, Global Financial Crisis, Pakistan, Volatility
Research Interests:
Dividends are payments made to the shareholders (owners) out of firms‟ earnings. Numerous academics, adopting either a behavioural or empirical approach, have provided rationales to address the issue of why companies pay dividends and... more
Dividends are payments made to the shareholders (owners) out of firms‟ earnings. Numerous academics, adopting either a behavioural or empirical approach, have provided rationales to address the issue of why companies pay dividends and whether the market response to the announcements can be predicted. However, these endeavours have failed to achieve unanimity on either issue. Moreover, most of these studies have been conducted in countries with developed markets; relatively little research has been conducted in the emerging stock markets of (Southern) Asia, such as Pakistan. This thesis tries to fill the gap in the literature by investigating both the impact of dividend announcements on the share prices of Pakistani firms and the behavioural determinants of dividend policy. The Pakistani market was characterised by a unique tax system, with capital gains totally exempted from taxation before June 2010. This unique feature provides an additional motivation for the researcher to explore the reasons why Pakistani firms pay dividends despite the tax penalty associated with such disbursements.
For the purposes of the research, a mixed-methods approach was employed involving, firstly, an event study to calculate any unexpected share returns around dividend announcements for a sample of 639 dividend events across 202 firms listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2005-09. Secondly, interviews were conducted with 23 company executives to ascertain their views about the determinants of dividend policy and its perceived impact on share prices. To gain an alternative – investor – perspective on the signalling impact of dividends, 16 financial analysts were also interviewed.
The results of the event study indicate that dividend announcements do not convey information about Pakistani firms to the stock market; insignificant unexpected returns are documented for the announcement date. Nonetheless, the disaggregated results of the event study showed significant unexpected returns for the dividend increase and no-change sub-groups – usually before the actual dividend announcement date. However, consistent with results for developed countries with diverse shareholdings, this research suggests that earnings are the dominant signal in Pakistan, in the context of an interaction effect where earnings and dividends signals re-enforce each other.
The results of the interviews indicated that Pakistani executives primarily base their dividend decisions on earnings, followed by liquidity. However, Pakistani firms do not appear have target payout ratios or employ a constant speed-of-adjustment to decide on payout levels. Indeed, most of the firms indicated that they decided the current payout ratio on an ad hoc basis. More importantly, both sets of interviewees (company officials and financial analysts) believed in the signalling effect, where dividends were sometimes used by investors as a signal of future earnings.
For the purposes of the research, a mixed-methods approach was employed involving, firstly, an event study to calculate any unexpected share returns around dividend announcements for a sample of 639 dividend events across 202 firms listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2005-09. Secondly, interviews were conducted with 23 company executives to ascertain their views about the determinants of dividend policy and its perceived impact on share prices. To gain an alternative – investor – perspective on the signalling impact of dividends, 16 financial analysts were also interviewed.
The results of the event study indicate that dividend announcements do not convey information about Pakistani firms to the stock market; insignificant unexpected returns are documented for the announcement date. Nonetheless, the disaggregated results of the event study showed significant unexpected returns for the dividend increase and no-change sub-groups – usually before the actual dividend announcement date. However, consistent with results for developed countries with diverse shareholdings, this research suggests that earnings are the dominant signal in Pakistan, in the context of an interaction effect where earnings and dividends signals re-enforce each other.
The results of the interviews indicated that Pakistani executives primarily base their dividend decisions on earnings, followed by liquidity. However, Pakistani firms do not appear have target payout ratios or employ a constant speed-of-adjustment to decide on payout levels. Indeed, most of the firms indicated that they decided the current payout ratio on an ad hoc basis. More importantly, both sets of interviewees (company officials and financial analysts) believed in the signalling effect, where dividends were sometimes used by investors as a signal of future earnings.
Research Interests:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the views of company executives and investors regarding the signalling impact of dividends in Pakistan. Quantitative research in the area has been scant, but recent large sample... more
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the views of company executives and investors regarding the signalling impact of dividends in Pakistan. Quantitative research in the area has been scant, but recent large sample evidence suggests a number of noteworthy idiosyncrasies exist in terms of the market reaction and these require further analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The study involves interviews with 16 financial analysts and 23 company officials regarding the impact of dividends on share prices in Pakistan. Recent work in the nation suggests that the market reaction to dividends in Pakistan is characterised by pre-announcement leakage and interaction with the attendant earnings signal – these issues were thus central to the discussions. Findings – The results suggest that individual perceptions both support and contradict the earlier quantitative findings in specific ways. The interviewees, particularly the company executives, were sceptical about the scope for information leakage to occur in Pakistan. In contrast, the interaction between earnings and dividend numbers was acknowledged, with – as in the earlier quantitative studies – the former figure dominating. Originality/value – This is the first detailed study of perspectives about the impact of dividends on share prices in Pakistan; for reasons outlined above, this represents a major gap in the literature regarding firm-market communication. The work follows the publication of the first large-sample study of share price movements in Pakistan; it thereby allows a pervasive conclusion to be drawn about the overriding importance of earnings figures in the nation's markets and in the attitudes of the firms listed on them. The study demonstrates the importance of mixed methods research in a developing market context.
Research Interests:
Abstract Purpose – Very little is known about the influences on dividend decisions in Pakistan, despite the importance of the market in the region and the nation’s non standard tax system. This study therefore aims to provide detailed... more
Abstract
Purpose – Very little is known about the influences on dividend decisions in Pakistan, despite the importance of the market in the region and the nation’s non standard tax system. This study therefore aims to provide detailed evidence regarding this issue by examining the views of those charged with the decisions in practice.
Design/methodology/approach – The study reports the findings from interviews with 23 Pakistani company officials about influences on their firms’ dividend policies. A semi-structured interview document was used to guide the discussions. The interviewees chosen ensure that a wide spread of professional and industrial backgrounds were covered in the study.
Findings – The results suggest that, despite differences in environmental idiosyncrasies, the dividend decision-making process in Pakistani companies is similar in many important respects to that in the USA and other developed markets. However, unlike in earlier studies, the interviewees suggested that past dividends do not influence current dividend levels in Pakistan and respondents were not reluctant to announce news of a dividend cut; instead, firms focus only on current earnings and company liquidity when deciding on a disbursement level.
Originality/value – The study suggests that views about dividends in Pakistan differ from those reported in other markets in a number of important respects. Some, but not all of this evidence relates to the Pakistan taxation system, where until very recently share dividends (as with all capital gains) were tax exempt.
Purpose – Very little is known about the influences on dividend decisions in Pakistan, despite the importance of the market in the region and the nation’s non standard tax system. This study therefore aims to provide detailed evidence regarding this issue by examining the views of those charged with the decisions in practice.
Design/methodology/approach – The study reports the findings from interviews with 23 Pakistani company officials about influences on their firms’ dividend policies. A semi-structured interview document was used to guide the discussions. The interviewees chosen ensure that a wide spread of professional and industrial backgrounds were covered in the study.
Findings – The results suggest that, despite differences in environmental idiosyncrasies, the dividend decision-making process in Pakistani companies is similar in many important respects to that in the USA and other developed markets. However, unlike in earlier studies, the interviewees suggested that past dividends do not influence current dividend levels in Pakistan and respondents were not reluctant to announce news of a dividend cut; instead, firms focus only on current earnings and company liquidity when deciding on a disbursement level.
Originality/value – The study suggests that views about dividends in Pakistan differ from those reported in other markets in a number of important respects. Some, but not all of this evidence relates to the Pakistan taxation system, where until very recently share dividends (as with all capital gains) were tax exempt.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The ouster of Mian Nawaz Sharif is a great blow to the PML-N. Indeed, it is a tough time for the party to be united till the coming election of 2018. Fundamentally, and relative to PPP, PML-N has a vote bank in right wing ranging from... more
The ouster of Mian Nawaz Sharif is a great blow to the PML-N. Indeed, it is a tough time for the party to be united till the coming election of 2018. Fundamentally, and relative to PPP, PML-N has a vote bank in right wing ranging from moderate to orthodox Muslims especially in the decisive province of Punjab. PTI is long struggling to grab this vote from PML-N and has been quite successful in this regard. Nawaz Sharif's soft corner for religious Sunni groups is no secret, and it had reflected in his vote bank in many cities of Punjab. Some recent moves in Pakistan political arena are an indicator of the scattered vote bank which previously was PML-N's. The launch of two new political parties by a banned religious is a significant development. In August this year, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed launched another party by the name of Milli Muslim League (MML). The MML is based on Ahl-e-Hadees might have a strong influence on the vote bank across Pakistan especially in Punjab. Another new political party, Tehreek-e-Labaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLR), showed its muscle in the NA-120 by-polls. This party was created after protest movement in favour of Mumtaz Qadri erupted. The roots of this party is based on the Barelvi school of thought that has a high number of followers in Punjab. The sympathisers of Mumtaz Qadri are not happy with PML-N as the former was executed during Nawaz Sharif's prime ministership. It is true that by-election does not show the eventual outcome of general elections, but some inferences can be made. If we analyse the voting pattern of by-election of NA-120 Lahore in September 2017, vacated as a result of ouster of Nawaz Sharif by Supreme Court, the winning PML-N vote bank decreased to 49.3 per cent from 61 per cent compared to general election of 2013. The decline is because of these two newly launched religious political parties where MML snatched five per cent of votes and Tehreek-e-Labaik secured six per cent votes. PTI improved its position while getting 37.6 percent compared to 35 per cent in last poll. The formation of these new religious political parties would definitely affect the vote bank of other parties including PTI, but one can expect further negative impact on vote bank of PML-N as death penalty of Mumtaz Qadri took place during the former's government. Another fear of creation of blocs within the PML-N also exists because of the grievances of party workers. We should not forget the suspicious role of Chaudhary Nisar Ali Khan after the ouster of Nawaz Sharif. It is reported in the press that Nisar is trying to form a forward bloc within PML-N to exploit the self-centred role of Nawaz Sharif and his family in the party. Some workers may join other parties as the ruling party's tenure nears end. Nawaz Sharif is well aware of the threat of emergence of rifts within the PML-N after his disqualification. His clear stance against the establishment is not a knee-jerk approach but a counter strategy to diffuse the aftershocks of his ouster on the charges of corruption. Nawaz
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
(Concept Note by PRIME Institute, an Islamabad based Think Thank) The allocation of a specific fiscal amount for each province is a constitutional requirement in Pakistan, decided as per the National Finance Commission Award every five... more
(Concept Note by PRIME Institute, an Islamabad based Think Thank)
The allocation of a specific fiscal amount for each province is a constitutional requirement in Pakistan, decided as per the National Finance Commission Award every five years. The 7th NFC Award was announced in 2010, after which there seems to be a deadlock-which is clearly a constitutional violation. The structure and dynamics revolving around NFC need to be reviewed to understand this deadlock and provide meaningful recommendations for successful devolution. PRIME Institute, an independent and private think tank based in Islamabad, secured support from National Endowment for Democracy (NED) to undertake a project for providing independent research, recommendations and advocacy on the fiscal devolution structure in Pakistan for the years 2017 and 2018. The project activities include dialogues at provincial level, annual conference in the capital and publication of five papers, two of which are in process of publication. As part of the project, a working group has also been formed which meets regularly to discuss current situation regarding NFC and way forward. The purpose of the working group is to get a better understanding of the dynamics of the NFC award, its significance and objectives, its methodology and an analysis of its effectiveness. Members also discuss the progress of the project and the practical next steps based on the political environment and simultaneous research analysis. In year 1, we produced basic research on NFC issues and proposed reforms; in year 2, we advanced this research by engaging with provincial governments and stakeholders widely; in year 3, we want to take a collaborative approach of working with the new government. My part of the research is: "Vertical distribution of divisible pool resources including distribution of funds for GB/AJK, establishment of fund for security and natural disasters"
The allocation of a specific fiscal amount for each province is a constitutional requirement in Pakistan, decided as per the National Finance Commission Award every five years. The 7th NFC Award was announced in 2010, after which there seems to be a deadlock-which is clearly a constitutional violation. The structure and dynamics revolving around NFC need to be reviewed to understand this deadlock and provide meaningful recommendations for successful devolution. PRIME Institute, an independent and private think tank based in Islamabad, secured support from National Endowment for Democracy (NED) to undertake a project for providing independent research, recommendations and advocacy on the fiscal devolution structure in Pakistan for the years 2017 and 2018. The project activities include dialogues at provincial level, annual conference in the capital and publication of five papers, two of which are in process of publication. As part of the project, a working group has also been formed which meets regularly to discuss current situation regarding NFC and way forward. The purpose of the working group is to get a better understanding of the dynamics of the NFC award, its significance and objectives, its methodology and an analysis of its effectiveness. Members also discuss the progress of the project and the practical next steps based on the political environment and simultaneous research analysis. In year 1, we produced basic research on NFC issues and proposed reforms; in year 2, we advanced this research by engaging with provincial governments and stakeholders widely; in year 3, we want to take a collaborative approach of working with the new government. My part of the research is: "Vertical distribution of divisible pool resources including distribution of funds for GB/AJK, establishment of fund for security and natural disasters"