[go: up one dir, main page]
Scribd
Upload
89 views7 pages

Activity Predecessor O M P PERT Mean Pert SD A B C D E F G H I J

The document contains a PERT chart that estimates the duration and variance of tasks in a project. It lists 10 tasks with their optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic durations. It calculates the expected mean and standard deviation for each task using the PERT formula. It identifies the critical path as tasks A through B, D, E, F, G, H and J through M. The total project duration using average times is estimated at 4.28 hours while following the critical path yields 3.82 hours, saving 0.46 hours if the critical path is followed.

Uploaded by

Sampurna
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
89 views7 pages

Activity Predecessor O M P PERT Mean Pert SD A B C D E F G H I J

The document contains a PERT chart that estimates the duration and variance of tasks in a project. It lists 10 tasks with their optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic durations. It calculates the expected mean and standard deviation for each task using the PERT formula. It identifies the critical path as tasks A through B, D, E, F, G, H and J through M. The total project duration using average times is estimated at 4.28 hours while following the critical path yields 3.82 hours, saving 0.46 hours if the critical path is followed.

Uploaded by

Sampurna
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 7

Duration te=(to+4tm+tp)/6 tsd=((tp-to)/6)^2

Activity Predecessor O M P PERT Mean PERT SD


A 5 6 7 6 0.111111111111111
B 1 3 5 3 0.444444444444444
C 1 4 7 4 1
D A 1 2 3 2 0.111111111111111
E B 1 2 9 3 1.77777777777778
F C 1 5 9 5 1.77777777777778
G C 2 2 8 3 1
H E,F 4 4 10 5 1
I D 2 5 8 5 1
J H,G 2 2 8 3 1

Critical Path Week = 17 4.77777777777778


(Most Likely)

Pessimistic 21.7777777777778
Optimistic 12.2222222222222
Standard Deviation 2.185812841434
Probability of 22 weeks:
x=22 22 2.28747855498907
mean=17 Normal Distrbn 0.988916047123506
sqrt of tsd=2.18
z=x-m/sqrt of tsd
Probability of 22 wee 98.8916047123506
te=expected mean
tsd=expected variance 2
10
6
A-6

1 B-3 3
(Min) Backward Pass 0 7
(Max) Forward Pass 0 3
C-4

4
4
4

(SQRT OF tsd)

(Z Value)
Critical Path = C-F-H-J
D-2 5
12
8

E-3 8
9
6
6
17
9 17
F-5
H-5

G-3

7
14
14
Duration
Activity Predecessor a m b
A 0.08 0.13 0.15
B A 0.13 0.19 0.29
C 0.04 0.09 0.11
D B, C 0.04 0.09 0.11
E D 0.11 0.16 0.25
F E 0.13 1.64 1.72
G F 0.28 0.33 0.4
H G 0.16 0.24 0.33
I F 0.12 0.15 0.2
J H,I 0.48 0.6 0.88
K J 0.1 0.172 0.2
L K 0.1 0.168 0.2
M L 0.18 0.32 0.44

m - most likely
a - most favourable (optimistic)
b - unfavourable ( pessimistic Total duration to complete using average time:
Total Duration to complete via Critical Path:

Time difference for 15 dozen:

In one month, average order quantity is 3400 dozen,


so time saved in one month, if PERT Chart is followed:
te=(to+4tm+tp)/6 tsd=((tp-to)/6)^2
PERT Mean PERT SD
0.125 0.000136111111111
0.197 0.000711111111111 0.322
0.085 0.000136111111111 0.322 3
0.085 0.000136111111111
0.167 0.000544444444444 C=0.085
1.402 0.070225 B Pass 0
0.333 0.0004 F Pass 0 1
0.242 0.000802777777778
0.153 0.000177777777778 A=0.125
0.627 0.004444444444444
0.165 0.000277777777778
2
0.162 0.000277777777778 0.125
0.317 0.001877777777778 0.125

mplete using average time: 4.28 hrs


mplete via Critical Path: 3.820 hrs Critical Path: A-B-D-E-F

0.460

ge order quantity is 3400 dozen, 104.3 hrs


e month, if PERT Chart is followed:
3 1.976 2.551
D=0.085 1.976 2.551
4 6 8
0.407 E=0.167 F=1.402 I=0.153 J=0.627
0.407 5 3.178
0.574 3.178
B=0.197 0.574 G=0.333 H=0.242
2.309
2.309 7
2

Critical Path: A-B-D-E-F-G-H-J-K-L-M


10 11 12
K=0.165 L=0.162 M=0.317
9 3.343 3.505 3.822
3.343 3.505 3.822

You might also like