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9 views9 pagesSolved Problems PERT Fall2021
pert
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Project Management (PERT/CPM) Additional Solved Problems
Problem #1 (PERT)
‘Consider the following task completion times and precedences for a project:
fences
4) Formulate the PERT precedence network for the project.
‘Answer: The PERT precedence network is given below. Note that a starting task with
‘zero completion time and no predecessors has been added to the and it is
‘connected to all task (A and B) with no predecessors,
») Use the most likely time for each task to determine the critical path (determine the ECT
and LCT for each task). ‘Answer: Determine the ECT and LCT for each task. The tasks with ECT = LCT are on
‘the critical path:
‘Task ECT = Mas (Predecessor ECT's) + Task Completion Time
‘Task LCT = Min (Successor LCT's - Successor Completion Time)
2» 66
oa
‘The critical path forthe project is Task Start > Task A ~» Task C—> Task D —> Task E.
©) What isthe distribution of the project completion time?
‘Answer: The estimates for the expected completion time, standard deviation, and variance
‘ae computed using the triangular distribution parameters 0, m, and p:
Texp=(0+4m + p¥6
o=@-0/6
= [(p-0)/ 6
ra le | Mot rexalmalatle] TeXP)
. a a} a
z +
a
‘The expected value of the project completion time Task Start Task A —+ Task C—+ Task
[D+ Task Eis the sum ofthe expected completion times forthe tasks onthe critical path:
Topps = Teg Tash Siar) + Tyg Tash A) 4Tog(Tatk C) + Taf Task D) + Tyy(Task )
042444844
=18 ‘The variance for the project completion time is the sum of the variances of the completion
times for the tasks on the critical path:
2, =04Task Start) + o'(Task A)+ 6°(Task © +0°4Task D) + 6°(Tast E)
20 +1/9 +1 416/9 41/9
=27/9
=3
‘The standard deviation of the project completion time is then the square root of the variance
of the project completion time of 3 years:
Spee = 173
‘The distribution of the project completion time Tay is then Normal with expected value
(Tages 18 years and variance (Gaye) 3 Years.
T pupa ~ NT rT)
Ta ~ N18, 3)
4 Wis the probity thatthe project wl finish sometime between year 1S and year
Answer: The lity of finishing the between the 15th and 22th year is
fil chores ing the project yer
PCS Years S Tyga S22 years)
“ts
=(-173528231)
= P@S23) - PZS-1.79)
= 0.9896 -0.0818, (Tabie 1b)
= 0.9478
where Z = Tee |S ye)
Problem #2 (PERT)
si tasks A will be build the
sa a cpa al be required to ew hospi in
siven as 1) Formulate the PERT network for Ms. Fortune Hospital
‘Answer: The Ms. Fortune Hospital PERT precedence nctwork is given below. Note that
a saarting task “Sian” with 2e70 time and no has been acked tothe
‘network and itis connected to all rask A) with no predecessors,
Ma. Fortune Hospital Precedence Network
E
“e
PI-r Pere -U]
PE)
Consider the following optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic completion times (in
‘months) for each task:
b) Using the most likely time m asthe deterministic time for each task, determine the critical
path (use the ECT/LCT Method) for the Ms. Fortune Hospital project.
‘Answer: Using the ECTILCT Method to determine the critical path (where LCT = ECT): Ms. Fortune Hospital PERT Network
‘The Earliest Completion Time for the Ms. Fortune Hospital is 31 months. The
critical path (ECT =LCT) is Task Start-+ Task A> Task D+ Task E> Task F.
‘¢) Using the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic task completion time estimates,
‘determine the mean, standard deviation and the probability distribution for the stochastic
‘completion time for the Ms. Fortune Hospital
Answer: The mean (Texp) given by (0 + 4m + py/6 and the variance o? given by [(p -
CY)? foreach tasks given below.
Answer: The mean (Texp) given by (0 +4m + pY/6 andthe variance o? given by lip ~
0/6]? for each task is given below.
[Task false] Moat] Pesslmnlstie] ——Texp
The expected completion time forthe project exp. project) of 31 months is determined by
the sum ofthe expected completion times forthe tasks on the critical path:
Tog pret Tegh Task Start) yf TASK AT gg TASk D)+T ol Tash E}*T (Task F)
=0464+8+6 +1
= 31 months
The variance for the project (0 ‘of 15 months is determined by the sum of the
vanances of the completion times for ie tasks on the critical path: Gags = O°(Task Start) + 0°(Task A) + 0°(Task D) + 0°(Task E) +0" Task F)
041444149
= 1S months
‘The completion time for the Ms. Fortune Hospital project i assumed t0 be Normal with
‘expected value (Texp project) Of 31 months and variance (@2project) of 15 months:
Tongs ~ NTap pegs)
Trg ~NGBILIS)
4) What is the lity thatthe Ms. Fortune Hospital project will finish between the 28th
‘and 34th month from the start ofthe project?
Anewer: The probably of fishing te Ms, Forune Hospital project between month 28
eden 3 ecg fw
P(28 months § Torys $34 months)
Tings ~ 30
= Ra apl se < Healy
=PC-0778zZs 07)
= P< O77 - PZS-07),
= 0.794 ~ 0.2206
= 0.5588
Nowe 2 Tm at)
Problem #3 (PERT)
‘Consider the following 7 tasks which are required to bring Wham-O Company's latest new
‘to market. The Task/Time Precedence Table with stochastic task completion time
‘estimates (in weeks) for this project is given below.
Test
ni
12) Build the PERT Network: the, and the time for
2) Build te PE showing the precedences and the expected completion time As ‘The expected value and variance of the task completion time for each task is
sven in the following table.
7, .otdmep
6
22 (P=2)
o (5)
Note: A Start Task 0 has been added tothe network asa predecessor to all tasks without a
Predecessor. Since there is only one task withou ‘Task 1), this step of
{Ldding an inital task i opticnal. ‘That is, Task 1 could be considered asthe Start task.
earliest completion time for the project as well asthe ECT's and LTS forthe tasks are
unchanged whether the initial Stat Task 0 is added or Task | is considered the inital task.
‘The PERT network showing task precedences and expected completion times is as follows:
Task Number
“Task Expected Completion Time
) Use the Stochastic PERT technique to find the earliest completion time and the critical
forthe project. Label the Earliest Completion Time (ECT) and the Latest Completion
ime (LCT) foreach task in the project.
“Answer: The Texp for each task is used to determine the project earliest completion time
and the critical poh. The ECT and LCT for each task inthe project must be determined. . es PN
leit ow ll
—>
4747
ab |
Es,
“Task Expected Completion Time
‘The critical path is Task O + Task 1 -+ Task? + Task 4+ Task 6 -+ Task 7, All asks
conthis path have ECT = LCT.
Whats the distribution of he aries completion tne for the project derived using the
‘Stochastic PERT technique? Provide the name of the distribution and its defining
parameters. Show all
Answer: The distribution of the stochastic PERT network is as follows’
Teaganes = Tal TASK O) + Tog Task 1) + Tyg Task 2) +
Taal Task §) + Tag Task 6) + Tog Tast 7)
=04234644+10 +4
=47 weeks
OL, = 04Task 0) + (Task 1) + 0°\Task 2)+
O'Task 4) + o°(Task 6)+ 0° Task 7)
