PERT- Program Evaluation and Review Technique

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 PERT- Program Evaluation and Review Technique
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique is management tool used
for planning, controlling and reviewing a project.
 It follows probabilistic approach towards time durations.
 CPM is easy to understand and use, but does not consider
uncertainty in activity time estimation.
 Uncertainty such as weather, equipment failure, absenteeism can have a
great impact on the completion time of a complex project.
 PERT is a network model that allows for randomness in activity completion
times. A distinguishing feature of PERT is its ability to deal with
uncertainty in activity completion times. For each activity, the model
usually includes three time estimates.
 PERT Generally used when there is a risk of time associated with project.
R & D projects where correct time determinations cannot be made.
2 Example : project launching the spacecraft.
 PERT- Program Evaluation and Review Technique
 PERT is event oriented network method, where more importance is
given to the achievement of noticeable milestone rather than the activity
can’t be made.
 PERT is used in such projects with a probabilistic method using three time
estimates for an activity, rather than a single estimate. Three time
estimates for every activity are :
1. Optimistic time -tO:
2. Most likely time -tm:
3. Pessimistic time -tp:

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 PERT- Program Evaluation and Review Technique
1. Optimistic time tO:
It is the shortest time taken to complete the activity. It means that if
everything goes well then there is more chance of completing the activity
within this time.
2. Most likely time tm:
It is the normal time taken to complete an activity, if the activity were
frequently repeated under the same conditions.
3. Pessimistic time tp:
It is the longest time that an activity would take to complete. It is the worst
time estimate that an activity would take if unexpected problems are faced.

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 PERT- Program Evaluation and Review Technique

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 PERT- Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Slack - It is defined as the difference between the latest event and earliest
event times.
Three time estimates shown below- t -tm-tp
O

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1-6-23
4-7-16

2-5-10 5
4
1

2-5-12
3-7-20
3
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 PERT- STEPS

1. Identify the specific activities.

2. Determine proper sequence of the activities.
3. Construct the network diagram.
4. Estimate the time required for each activity.
5. Determine the critical path.
6. Update the PERT chart.

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 PERT- STEPS
Probability for Project Duration
The probability of completing the project within the scheduled
time (Ts) or contracted time may be obtained by using the
standard normal deviate where (Te) is the expected time of
project completion.

Probability of completing the project within the scheduled time

is, P (Te < Ts) = P (Z < Z0) from normal tables

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 PERT- STEPS
1) After knowing three time estimate, calculate average or mean time taken
for an activity called as Expected time (Te) calculated as follows-

2) The variance of the activity time is calculated using the formula,

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 PERT- STEPS
3) Probability for Project Duration
The probability of completing the project within the scheduled time (Ts) or
contracted time may be obtained by using the standard normal deviate where
(Te) is the expected time of project
completion.

4) Probability of completing the project within the scheduled time is,

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 PERT- STEPS
 If Ts is the schedules time of completion & Te is the expected time
of completion

 Probability factor Z =Ts-Te/sigma

 Sigma = (Sum of variances along critical path)0.5

 Variance = (tp-to/six)2

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 PERT- STEPS
1. Normal Deviate = 0, it is
the expected time,
probability of
completion = 50 %
2. Normal Deviate = 1,
probability of
completion = 84 %.
3. Normal Deviate = -1,
probability of
completion = 16 %

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 PERT- Example
Exp. 1) For the given PERT network, determine
a) Expected time, Standard deviation and variance of the PROJECT and show the
critical path also.
b) Probability of completion of project in 35 days.
c) Time duration that will provide 90% probability of its completion in time.
The three time estimates of each activity. are mentioned on the network.

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 PERT- Example
Step 1 – Calculate Expected time (te) for all activities

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 PERT- Example
Step 2- write all the calculated te on network for respective activities and find
expected project duration (TE).

Earliest Expected MeanTime (TE ) and Latest allowable occurrence time

(TL ) are marked in time box at each event.

Find Slack- which is the buffer time for an activity can be delayed without
affecting the completion date for the entire project.

Slack (S) = (TL - TE ) is also mentioned on the network. Since scheduled

completion time of project is not mentioned, for the last event (8),TL =TE
has been taken.

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 PERT- Example
Step 2- write all the calculated te on network for respective activities and find
expected project duration (TE).

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 Step 3- Calculate Standard deviation of activity t = (tb - t a )/6

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Step 4- Variance of activity Vt = (standard deviation)2.

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 PERT- Formulas
1) Knowing three time estimate, average or mean time , Expected time (te)
calculated as follows-

2)The variance of the activity time is calculated using the formula,

3) The probability of completing the project within the scheduled time (Ts) or
contracted time may be obtained by using the standard normal deviate Z
where (Te) is the expected time of project-

4) Probability of completing the project within the scheduled time is,

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 • All the events having zero slack are critical.
• CRITICAL PATH-I = 1- 2- 3 - 6-7 – 8

• CRITICAL PATH-II = 1- 2-4 - 6-7 – 8

• Expected Mean Time of Project TE= 31 days.

• Variance of project along critical path I
• (VrI) = 1 + 7.1 + 5.44 +1.78 + 0.44 = 15.76

• Variance along critical path II

• (VrII ) = 1 + 4 + 1 + 1.78 + 0.44 = 2.86

• Variance of the project (VT) = 15.76

• Standard Deviation of the project () = sqrt(15.76) = 3.97

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 b) Find Probability of completion of project in 35 days?
Find Probability factor (z) corresponding to Ts= 35 days

z = (Ts -Te)/ 
= (scheduled time – expected time of project)
Standard Deviation of the project ()

= (35-31)/3.97 = 1.007 = 1.0

probability %corresponding to z = 1.0
(from table) pr= 84.13%
Hence probability of completion of project in 35 days is 84.13%
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 c) What is the Time duration that will provide 90%
probability of its completion in time.

for 90% probability, the value of z = 1.32 (from table )

z = (Ts -Te)/ 
1.32 = (Ts - 31 )/3.97

Ts= 36.24 days.

Hence time duration for completion of project at 90%

probability is 36.24 days.

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 PERT- Example
Exp. 2) An R & D project has a list of tasks to be performed whose time estimates are given
in the table.
a. Draw the project network and Find the critical path.
c. Find the probability that the project is completed in 19 days.
d. Find the probability of completing it in 24 days.
(Z=-2.4 probability 0.8% ; Z= -2.5 probability 0.6%

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 PERT- Example
1. Draw network and show three time estimate

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 PERT- Example
2. Calculate te for al activities and the project expected time (TE) and critical path

Total Project duration is 24 days

Critical path 1-3-4-6-7
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 PERT- Example
3. Calculate standard deviation and variances for all activities
te  V
(tp-to)/6

6 0.666 0.444
4 1.333 1.777
9 1.666 2.777
2 0.333 0.111
7 0.333 0.111
8 1.333 1.777
5 0.666 0.444
10 1.333 1.777
4 0.666 0.444
8 1.333 1.777
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 • Expected Mean Time of Project TE= 24 days.
• Critical path 1-3-4-6-7

• Variance of project along critical path

• (Vr) = 1.777+0.111+0.444+0.777= 4.109

• Variance of the project (VT) = 4.109

• Standard Deviation of the project () = sqrt(4.109) = 2.03

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 b) Find Probability of completion of project in 19 days?
Find Probability factor (z) corresponding to Ts= 19 days

z = (Ts -Te)/ 
= (scheduled time – expected time of project)
Standard Deviation of the project ()

= (19-24)/2.03 = -2.46
probability %corresponding to z = -2.46
(from table) pr= 0.68%
Hence probability of completion of project in 19 days is 0.68%
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 b) Find Probability of completion of project in 24 days?
Find Probability factor (z) corresponding to Ts= 24 days

z = (Ts -Te)/ 
= (scheduled time – expected time of project)
Standard Deviation of the project ()

= (24-24)/2.03 = 0
(from table) pr= 50%
Hence probability of completion of project in 24 days is 50%

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PERT- Example
Exp. 3) For a project time estimates are given in the table.
a. Draw the project network and Find the critical path.
c. Find the probability that the project is completed in 50 days.
d.What will be the time duration of project when probability is 95%.
Activity Immediate to tm tp
predecessor
A - 10 22 22
B - 20 20 20
C - 4 10 16
D A 2 14 32
E B,C 8 8 20
F B,C 8 14 20
G B,C 4 4 4
H C 2 12 16
I G,H 6 16 38
J D,E 2 8 14
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Activity 2 6
(te, variance) (15,25)
J
(8,4)
A
E
(20,4)
(10,4)

F
1 3 7
B (14,4)
(20,0)

G
C (4,0)
(10,4) I
(18,28.4)

H 5
4
(11,5.4)

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 D
Activity 2 6
(te, variance) (15,25)
J
(8,4)
A
E
(20,4)
(10,4)

F
1 3 7
B (14,4)
(20,0)

G
C (4,0)
(10,4) I
(18,28.4)

H 5
4
(11,5.4)
Total Project duration is 43 days
157 Critical path 1-2-6-7
PERT- Example
Activity to tm tp te  V

A 10 22 22 20 2 4
B 20 20 20 20 0 0
C 4 10 16 10 2 4
D 2 14 32 15 5 25
E 8 8 20 10 2 4
F 8 14 20 14 2 4
G 4 4 4 4 0 0
H 2 12 16 11 2.32 5.4
I 6 16 38 18 5.33 28.4
J 2 8 14 8 2 4
 b) Find Probability of completion of project in 50 days?
Find Probability factor (z) corresponding to Ts= 50 days

• Variance of the project (VT) = 4+25+4=33

• Standard Deviation of the project () =
sqrt(33) = 5.744
z = (Ts -Te)/ 
= (50-43)/5.744 = 1.22
(from table)
probability %corresponding to z = 1.22 is 0.888
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 c) What is the Time duration that will provide 95%
probability of its completion in time.

for 95% probability, the value of z = 1.645 (from table )

z = (Ts -Te)/ 5.744
1.645 = (Ts - 43 )/3.97

Ts= 52.45 days.

Hence time duration for completion of project at 95%

probability is 52.45 days.

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 Difference in CPM and PERT

36 SBG Department of Civil PCCoE,2020-21

 Compare CPM and PERT
CPM PERT
1 Uses network, calculate float or slack,
identify critical path and activities, Same as CPM
guides to monitor and controlling
project
2 Uses one value of activity time Requires 3 estimates of activity time
Calculates mean and variance of time

3 Used where times can be estimated Used where times cannot be estimated
with confidence, familiar activities with confidence.
Unfamiliar or new activities

4 Minimizing cost is more important Meeting time target or estimating

percent completion is more important

5 Example: construction projects, Example: Involving new activities or

building one off machines, ships, etc products, research and development
etc

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