Unit 6:
Network Models
Part 9
Subject: PMOR
Faculty: Prof. Y. M. Khan
Asst. Professor,
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, ICEEM,
Aurangabad
PERT
Programme Evaluation and Review Technique.
The CPM system of networks omits the probabilistic
considerations and is based on a single time estimate of the
average time required to execute the activity
The PERT system is based on three time estimates of the
performance time of an activity.
The Three Time Estimates
The Optimistic time estimate(to)
The shortest possible time required for the completion of an activity, if all
goes extremely well. No delays or setbacks.
The Pessimistic time estimate (tp)
The maximum possible time the activity will take if every thing goes
bad(except earthquakes, floods, labor troubles)
The Most likely time estimate (tm)
The time an activity will take if executed under normal conditions. It is the
modal value
Frequency Distribution Curve for PERT
Though the curves is not fully
described by the mean (µ) &
standard deviation(σ), yet in
PERT the following relations are
approximated for mean (µ) &
standard deviation(σ).
𝑡𝑝−𝑡𝑜 2
Variance = V = (σ)2 =( )
6
𝒕𝒑−𝒕𝒐
σ= ( )
𝟔
𝒕𝒐+𝟒𝒕𝒎+𝒕𝒑
µ =
𝟔
Expected time or average time of an activity is taken equal to
mean.
𝒕𝒐+𝟒𝒕𝒎+𝒕𝒑
te = µ =
𝟔
Expected time is used as activity duration & the critical path is
obtained by the previously explained method.
The variance or standard deviation is used to find the probability of
completing the whole project within a given time.
The variance or standard deviation is used to find the probability of
completing the whole project within a given time.
Standard Normal Variate(Z)
𝑻−𝑻𝒄𝒑
Z= ( )
σ
T= Given Probable time of completing project
Tcp= Project Duration for critical path
σ= Square root of sum of all variance of critical path
= ∑σ2𝒊𝒋
The probability is then read from prob. Distribution table (C2 Table)
for the value of Z found from above equation
Consider the following network. Three time estimates are
given along the arrows. Find critical path. Find probability
that the project will be completed in 20 days.
0 - 0 -0
2-2-8 4-6-8
1 2 5 6
3
Activity (σ)2 te
(i-j) to tm tp ((tp-to)/6)2 (to+4tm+tp)/6
1-2
2 2 8 1 3
2-3
1 1.5 11 2.8 3
2-4
0.5 2.5 7.5 1.36 3
3-4
0 0 0 0.0 0
3-5
1 2.5 7 1 3
3-6
1 2 3 0.11 2
4-5
6 7 8 0.11 7
4-6
3 4 11 1.78 5
5-6
4 6 8 0.44 6
E=6 𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
Z= ( ) 𝑇=20 𝑇𝑐𝑝=19 σcp= ∑σ2𝒊𝒋
L=6 σcp
σcp1= 𝟏 + 𝟐. 𝟖 + 𝟎 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒 = 𝟐. 𝟎𝟖
4 σcp2= 𝟏 + 𝟏. 𝟑𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒 = 𝟏. 𝟕𝟎
E=0 E=3 E=19
L=0 L=3 L=19
te=3 te=0 E=13 te=6
1 2 (σ)2=0 L=13
5 6
(σ)2=1 (σ)2=0.44
Critical Path: 1-2-3-4-5-6
Critical Path: 1-2-4-5-6
E=6
3
L=6
σcp1 > σcp2 20−19
Z= ( ) Read P for Z= 0.48 from C2 table, we get,
Selecting σcp1 2.08
Z= 0.48
P= 0.6844 P= 68.44 %
The time estimates(in weeks) for the activities of a PERT
network are given below
Activity 1. Draw the project network and identify all the paths
(i-j) to tm tp
through it.
1-2
1 1 7 2. Determine expected project length
1-3
1 4 7
3. Calculate standard deviation and variance of the
project length
1-4
2 2 8 4. What is the probability that the project will be
2-5 completed :
1 1 1
a) at least 4 weeks earlier than expected?
3-5 b) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time?
2 5 14
4-6 5. If the project due date is 19 weeks, what is the
2 5 8 probability of not meeting the due date?
5-6 6. Probability for completing project in 20 weeks
3 6 15
7. What should be the scheduled completion time for the
probability of completion to be 90%?
1. Draw the project network and identify all the paths through it.
Activity Activity
(i-j)
to tm tp to tm tp
(i-j)
1-2
1 1 7 3-5
2 5 14
1-3
1 4 7
4-6
2 5 8
1-4
2 2 8
5-6
2-5 3 6 15
1 1 1
1-4-7 2 - 5 - 14 3 - 6 - 15
1 3 5 6
Path 1: 1 - 2 – 5 – 6
Path 2: 1 - 3 – 5 – 6
Path 3: 1 – 4 – 6
4
2. Determine expected project length
Activity to tm tp (σ)2 te Activity to tm tp (σ)2 te
(i-j) (i-j)
1-2 1 1 7 1 2 3-5 2 5 14 4 6
1-3 1 4 7 1 4 4-6 2 5 8 1 5
1-4 2 2 8 1 3 5-6 3 6 15 4 7
2-5 1 1 1 0 1
2
Project Duration
Path 1: 1 - 2 – 5 – 6 = 2+1+7=10
1-4-7 2 - 5 - 14 3 - 6 - 15
Path 2: 1 - 3 – 5 – 6 = 4+6+7=17
1 te=4
3 5 te=7
6
Path 3: 1 – 4 – 6 = 3+5=8 te=6
Therefore, the expected project length= 17 weeks
4
3. Calculate standard deviation and variance of the
project length
Variance=Vcp=(σ)2cp= 1+4+4=9
Std. Deviation=σcp= σ2𝑐𝑝 = 9 = 3
1-4-7 2 - 5 - 14 3 - 6 - 15
1 3 5 σ2 =4
6
σ2 =1 σ2 =4
4
4. What is the probability that the project will be completed :
a) at least 4 weeks earlier than expected?
b) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time?
a) At least 4 weeks earlier than expected
Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 17-4=13 weeks
Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
13−17
) Z= -1.33 P=1-0.9082
σcp 3
Since Z is negative Subtracting value of p obtained from C2 table for Z= 1.33 from 1
We get, Probability = 0.0918
So, the Probability of completing the project 4 weeks earlier is = 0.0918= 9.18%
b) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time
Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 17+4=21 weeks
Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
21−17
) Z= 1.33 P=0.9082
σcp 3
So, the Probability of completing the project at most 4 weeks later is = 0.9082=
90.82%
5) If the project due date is 19 weeks
Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 19 weeks
Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
19−17
) Z= 0.67 P=0.7486
σcp 3
So, the Probability of meeting the due date = 0.7486= 74.86%
6)Probability for completing project in 20 weeks
Tcp=Expected time = 17 weeks
T= scheduled time = 20 weeks
Z= (
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝
) Z= (
20−17
) Z= 1 P=0.8413
σcp 3
So, the Probability of meeting the due date = 0.8413= 84.13%
7) scheduled completion time for the probability of completion to be 90%
P= 90%=0.9
Finding Z for P= 0.9=1.28
𝑇−𝑇𝑐𝑝 𝑇−17
Z= ( ) 1.28= ( ) 𝑇 = 17 + 3.84 = 20.84 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠
σcp 3
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