alpha = 30%

moving average
month actual exponential smoothing
3 mons. 5 mons.
october 800 0.00
november 725 800.00
december 630 777.50
january 500 718.33 733.25
february 645 618.33 663.28
march 690 591.67 660 657.79
april 730 611.67 638 667.45
may 810 688.33 639 686.22
june 1200 743.33 675 723.35
july 980 913.33 815 866.35
total demand 7710
Beta = 20%

trend adjusted exponential smoothing error for exponential smoothing

0.00 0.00
0 800.00 -75.00
-4.50 782.00 -147.50
-12.45 745.70 -233.25
-23.96 687.23 -18.28
-20.26 678.05 32.21
-14.28 681.73 62.55
-7.67 693.89 123.78
1.29 722.06 476.65
29.63 836.71 113.65
ential smoothing error for adjusted

0 0 0
75 -75.00 75
147.5 -152.00 152
233.25 -245.70 245.7
18.28 -42.23 42.23
32.21 11.95 11.95
62.55 48.27 48.27
123.78 116.11 116.11
476.65 477.94 477.94
113.65 143.29 143.29
1282.87 1312.49

mapd = 16.64% mapd = 17.02%

0.1664 0.1702
x y alpha = 30%
moving average
month actual exponential smoothing
3 mons. 5 mons.
1 62.7 0.00
2 63.9 800.00
3 68 579.17
4 66.4 64.87 425.82
5 67.2 66.10 317.99
6 65.8 67.20 65.64 242.76
7 68.2 66.47 66.26 189.67
8 69.3 67.07 67.12 153.23
9 67.2 67.77 67.38 128.05
10 70.1 68.23 67.54 109.79
total demand 668.8

55 x
5.50
xy x2
62.7 1
127.8 4
204 9
265.6 16
336 25
394.8 36
477.4 49
554.4 64
604.8 81
701 100
3728.5 385

0.6072727273
Beta = 20%

trend adjusted exponential smoothing error for exponential smoothing

0.00 0.00
0 800.00 -736.10
-44.17 623.34 -511.17
-66.00 491.82 -359.42
-74.37 392.36 -250.79
-74.54 317.30 -176.96
-70.25 259.92 -121.47
-63.49 216.72 -83.93
-55.83 183.88 -60.85
-48.31 158.11 -39.69

y b a
66.88 0.61 63.54

y=a+bx

50.1 2660
82.5
1174.693877551
error for exponential smoothing error for adjusted

0 0 0
75 -736.10 75
147.5 -555.34 152
233.25 -425.42 245.7
18.28 -325.16 42.23
32.21 -251.50 11.95
62.55 -191.72 48.27
123.78 -147.42 116.11
476.65 -116.68 477.94
113.65 -88.01 143.29
1282.87 1312.49

mapd = 16.64% mapd = 17.02%

1.9182 1.9625

MAP = 21.31%
0.2131296518
x y alpha = 30%
moving average
month actual exponential smoothing
3 mons. 5 mons.
1 10.6 0.00
2 12.7 800.00
3 9.8 563.81
4 11.3 11.03 397.61
5 13.6 11.27 281.71
6 14.4 11.57 11.6 201.28
7 12.2 13.10 12.36 145.22
8 16.7 13.40 12.26 105.31
9 18.1 14.43 13.64 78.73
10 19.2 15.67 15 60.54
11 16.3 48.14
12 14.7 38.59
13 18.2 31.42
14 19.6 27.45
15 21.4 25.10
16 22.8 23.99
17 20.6 23.63
18 18.7 22.72
21.52
15.06
10.54

total demand 290.9

171 x
9.50
xy x2
10.6 1
25.4 4
29.4 9
45.2 16
68 25
86.4 36
85.4 49
133.6 64
162.9 81
192 100
179.3 121
176.4 144
 236.6 169
274.4 196
321 225
364.8 256
350.2 289
336.6 324
3078.2 2109
Beta = 20%

trend adjusted exponential smoothing error for exponential smoothing

0.00 0.00
0 800.00 -787.30
-47.24 611.05 -554.01
-71.03 468.64 -386.31
-80.00 361.72 -268.11
-80.09 281.37 -186.88
-75.28 220.50 -133.02
-68.21 173.52 -88.61
-59.88 138.61 -60.63
-51.54 112.08 -41.34
-43.72 91.85 -31.84
-36.88 75.47 -23.89
-30.94 62.36 -13.22
-25.54 53.00 -7.85
-20.91 46.01 -3.70
-16.95 40.94 -1.19
-13.63 37.26 -3.03
-11.09 33.81 -4.02
-9.11 30.63 -21.52
-8.58 23.64 -15.06
-7.77 18.31 -10.54

y b a
16.16 #REF! #REF!

y=a+bx

#REF!

314.65 2660

1174.693877551
error for exponential smoothing error for adjusted

0 0 0
75 -787.30 75
147.5 -601.25 152
233.25 -457.34 245.7
18.28 -348.12 42.23
32.21 -266.97 11.95
62.55 -208.30 48.27
123.78 -156.82 116.11
476.65 -120.51 477.94
113.65 -92.88 143.29
113.65 -75.55 143.29
113.65 -60.77 143.29
113.65 -44.16 143.29
113.65 -33.40 143.29
113.65 -24.61 143.29
113.65 -18.14 143.29
113.65 -16.66 143.29
113.65 -15.11 143.29
113.65 -30.63 143.29
113.65 -23.64 143.29
113.65 -18.31 143.29

2533.02 1312.49

mapd = 16.64% mapd = 17.02%

8.7075 4.5118