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Solved Problem 1 Chapter 11

This document presents the results of an exponential smoothing forecasting model applied to a time series dataset. The model calculates 3-month and 4-month moving averages to forecast demand. It records the actual demand, forecasted values, errors between actual and forecasted, and error metrics like mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The model is then applied again with exponential smoothing using an alpha of 0.5 to smooth the forecasts, which improves the error metrics.

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Nicolas Davila
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87 views2 pages

Solved Problem 1 Chapter 11

This document presents the results of an exponential smoothing forecasting model applied to a time series dataset. The model calculates 3-month and 4-month moving averages to forecast demand. It records the actual demand, forecasted values, errors between actual and forecasted, and error metrics like mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The model is then applied again with exponential smoothing using an alpha of 0.5 to smooth the forecasts, which improves the error metrics.

Uploaded by

Nicolas Davila
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Solved Problem 1 Exponential

Period Demand 3-Month MA 4-Month MA Smoothing Error Error


1 86 86
2 93 86
3 88 89.5
4 89 89.00 88.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
5 92 90.00 89.00 88.88 2.00 2.00 0.00 2.17% 3.00
6 94 89.67 90.50 90.44 4.33 4.33 4.00 4.61% 3.50
7 91 91.67 90.75 92.22 -0.67 0.67 18.78 0.73% 0.25
8 93 92.33 91.50 91.61 0.67 0.67 0.44 0.72% 1.50
9 96 92.67 92.50 92.30 3.33 3.33 0.44 3.47% 3.50
10 97 93.33 93.50 94.15 3.67 3.67 11.11 3.78% 3.50
11 93 95.33 94.25 95.58 -2.33 2.33 13.44 2.51% -1.25
12 95 95.33 94.75 94.29 -0.33 0.33 5.44 0.35% 0.25
MAD 1.93 2.09 2.53 . 1.93 5.96 2.04%
MSE 5.96 6.21 9.65 MAD MSE MAPE
MAPE 2.04% 1.88% 2.71%

Alpha 0.5
Month Sales Forecast Error
1 0.0086 0.01
2 93 0.01 92.99 92.99 8647.40 99.99%
3 88 46.50 41.50 41.50 1721.89 47.15%
4 89 67.25 21.75 21.75 472.97 24.44%
5 92 78.13 13.87 13.87 192.49 15.08%
6 94 85.06 8.94 8.94 79.87 9.51%
7 91 89.53 1.47 1.47 2.16 1.61%
8 93 90.27 2.73 2.73 7.48 2.94%
9 96 91.63 4.37 4.37 19.07 4.55%
10 97 93.82 3.18 3.18 10.14 3.28%
11 93 95.41 -2.41 2.41 5.80 2.59%
12 95 94.20 0.80 0.80 0.63 0.84%
17.64 1014.54 19.27%
MAD MSE MAPE
Solved Problem 1

98
96
94
3.00 9.00 3.26%
92
3.50 12.25 3.72%
90
0.25 0.06 0.27% Moving
88 Average
1.50 2.25 1.61% Forecasts
86
3.50 12.25 3.65%
84
3.50 12.25 3.61%
82
1.25 1.56 -1.34% 80
0.25 0.06 0.26% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.09 6.21 1.88% Period
MAD MSE MAPE

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