Simple Moving Average
Time Demand Units Forecasted
1 50
2 55
3 57
4 48
5 54
6 51
7 51
8 52
Weighted Moving Average
Time Actual Demand
1 50
2 55
3 57 0.2
4 48 0.3
5 54 0.5
6 0 52.8
Use weightage of 0.50 for the nearest time period, followed by 0.30 for the next nearest time period and add weight of 0.20 to
Plot Graph to see the difference between moving average and weighted moving average?
e period and add weight of 0.20 to the next nearest demand?
Exponential Smoothing
Formula = Previous Forecast + Alpha(Actual Previous - Forecast Previous)
2023 2024.0 2024.0
Time Actual Demand Alpha = 0.25 Alpha = 0.5
1 42 - -
2 40 42.0 42.0
Chart Title
3 43 41.5 41.0
4 40 41.9 42.0 50
45
5 41 41.4 41.0
40
6 39 41.3 41.0
35
7 46 40.7 40.0
30
8 44 42.0 43.0
25
9 45 42.5 43.5 20
10 38 43.2 44.3 15
11 40 41.9 41.1 10
12 41.4 40.6 5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Plot the values using Formula for Alpha = 0.5?
Use a graph to identify the differences between the two different forecast? Actual Demand 42 Alpha = 0.25 -
Chart Title
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
mand 42 Alpha = 0.25 - Alpha = 0.5 -
Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjusted
2023 Beta Value = 0.3
Time Actual Demand Alpha = 0.25 Trend Forecast Trend Adjusted Forecast
1 42 0.0 0.0
2 40 2.0 42.0 44.0
3 43 1.6 42.8 44.4
4 40 1.4 44.0 45.4
5 41 0.9 43.8 44.6
6 39 0.5 43.6 44.0
7 46 0.0 42.5 42.5
8 44 0.3 43.5 43.9
9 45 0.3 43.9 44.2
10 38 0.4 44.5 44.9
11 40 -0.3 42.8 42.5
12 41.2 -0.6 41.8 41.2
Chart Title
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Actual Demand Trend Adjusted Forecast
Trend-Adjusted Forecast Trend Adjusted Forecast FIT
-
42.0 2.0 44.0
43.0 1.7 44.7
44.0 1.5 45.5
44.1 1.1 45.1
43.7 0.6 44.4
42.8 0.2 42.9
43.4 0.3 43.7
43.9 0.4 44.3
44.4 0.4 44.8
43.2 -0.1 43.1
41.9 -0.4 41.4
Chart Title
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
emand Trend Adjusted Forecast FIT
Trend Line intercept
slope
X-axis y-axis y=mx+c
Time Demand Units
1 1200 Slope 122.2
2 1450 Intercept 1094.8
3 1300
4 1100 y=122.2x+1094.8 Demand
5 1950 4000
6 2120 3500
7 2040
3000
8 2200
2500
9 2250
2000
10 2310
1500
11 2270
1000
12 2480
13 2683.4 500
14 2805.6 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
15 2927.8
Demand Units
16 3050
Linear (Demand Units)
17 3172.2
18 3294.4
19 3416.6
20 3538.8
Find the Trend Line equation using Formula's?
Intercept
Slope
y=mx+c
Plot a Graph and show the Trendline?
Demand Units
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Demand Units Linear (Demand Units)
Linear (Demand Units)
Seasonality Practise Calculate a Trend Line equation and practise th
2018 2019 2020 Average Demand Average Monthly Demand
January 1500 1650 1600 1583.3 131.944444444444
Feburary 1600 1700 1650
March 1200 1400 1300
April 1800 2000 1900
May 1950 2200 2080
June 2120 2350 2230
July 2500 2800 2700
August 2200 2310 2190
September 1950 2150 2080
October 1800 2000 2010
November 1750 1950 1850
December 1810 2000 1920
Total Demand Year 1583.3
Chart Title
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
Column J Colum
e equation and practise this Numeral using a Seasonality Index!
Seasonality Indices ETL-Extraction , Transformation and Loading
12.00 Demand
1 1500
2 1600
3 1200
4 1800
5 1950
6 2120
7 2500
8 2200
9 1950
10 1800
11 1750
12 1810
13 1650
14 1700
15 1400
16 2000
17 2200
18 2350
19 2800
20 2310
21 2150
22 2000
23 1950
24 2000
25 1600
26 1650
27 1300
28 1900
29 2080
30 2230
31 2700 y=8.57x+1791.48
32 2190
Chart Title 33 2080
34 2010 8.57 Slope
35 1850 1791.48 Intecept
36 1920
37 2108.57 0.81 1712.087
38 2117.14 0.85 1791.426
39 2125.71 0.67 1417.14
40 2134.28 0.97 2079.555
111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637
41 2142.85 1.06 2282.044
42 2151.42 1.15 2464.019
43 2159.99 1.37 2953.832
111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637
44 2168.56 1.15 2483.65
Column J Column L 45 2177.13 1.06 2299.942
46 2185.7 0.99 2170.755
47 2194.27 0.95 2081.743
48 2202.84 0.98 2157.654
