Stream restoration has become a major focus of conservation efforts with millions of dollars spent each year on efforts aimed at recovering imperiled species; however, for animals with complex life-history strategies, this reliance on...
moreStream restoration has become a major focus of conservation efforts with millions of dollars spent each year on efforts aimed at recovering imperiled species; however, for animals with complex life-history strategies, this reliance on stream restoration for increasing overall survival requires that several key assumptions be met. We addressed fundamental uncertainties of the current focus on tributary restoration for recovery of endangered Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): 1) is there potential for improving habitat in tributary streams, 2) what magnitude of early survival improvement can be expected based on stream restoration, and 3) will incremental increases in early survival be sufficient to ensure viability of the populations that compose the Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU)? We combined simple mechanistic habitat models, population viability measures, and categorical filters to quantify the potential for increasing total life-cycle survival (TLCS) across all 32 populations (ESU), based on increases to early freshwater survival, predicted to occur in response to restored tributary condition. A wide gap remains between how much survival improvement is needed, versus what is likely to occur under tributary restoration; tributary restoration has the potential to increase survival to the necessary minimum for only four populations in the ESU while the remaining populations (84%) still fall far below the survival needed for future viability. In addition, across the ESU; on average, a 171% increase in TLCS is necessary, whereas only ~106% appears possible. A recovery strategy for these salmon that relies largely on tributary restoration, to mitigate for known mortality imposed at other life stages (e.g., migration through hydropower dams) is risky and has a low probability of success. For animals with complex life cycles and exhibiting long migrations, stream restoration efforts may be ineffective and misplaced, if the targeted life stage is not limiting or unresponsive, and/or if there is little potential for increasing survival overall. We demonstrate both an approach for, and the importance of, completing a comprehensive a prior evaluation of restoration potential, such that scarce resources can be allocated to efforts with the greatest potential and the least amount of risk.