Climate change and the role of central banks

Bankarstvo 2022 Pregledni naučni rad Datum prijema: 28.07.2022. god. Datum prihvatanja: 31.07.2022. god. DOI: 10.5937/bankarstvo2202086M KLIMATSKE PROMENE I ULOGA CENTRALNIH BANAKA „Klimatske promene predstavljaju značajni rizik u pogledu društva, kao i ekonomije“ Iv Merš, Frankfurt, 27. novembar 2018 Dr Vesna Martin Narodna banka Srbije* vesna.martin@nbs.rs martinv0803@hotmail.com Rezime Centralne banke su u poslednjih nekoliko godina izložene novim izazovima i zadacima sa kojima je potrebno da se suoče. Jedan od tih izazova predstavljaju klimatske promene, koje direktno utiču na glavne ciljeve centralne banke, a to je postizanje i održavanje cenovne i finansijske stabilnosti. Kako bi se ispunili ciljevi definisani Pariskim sporazumom neophodno je da centralne banke uzmu aktivnije učešće u borbi protiv posledica klimatskih promena. To znači da se od centralnih banaka očekuje da usvoje politike i strategije koje će dati smernice finansijskom sektoru da uspešno upravlja rizicima od klimatskih promena i da ih ohrabri da usmere investicije u čiste tehnologije i nisko-karboničnu infrastrukturu. Time bi se ostvario održivi ekonomski razvoj u dugom roku koji je baziran na principu smanjenja rizika od klimatskih promena, uz istovremeno očuvanje životne sredine. Ključne reči: klimatske promene, centralna banka, održive finansije, zelena transformacija JEL Klasifikacija: Q54, E58, E42 *Za stavove iznete u ovom radu odgovoran je autor i stavovi ne predstavljaju nužno zvaničan stav Narodne banke Srbije 86 Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Uvod Klimatske promene utiču na realnu ekonomiju, kao i na celokupan finansijski sistem. Iako je centralnim bankama mandat definisan zakonskim aktima, u nekoliko poslednjih godina se pred tim institucijama postavljaju novi izazovi poput rasta cena nepokretnosti, rizika klimatskih promena i razvoja digitalnih valuta. Potrebno je da se centralne banke bave analizom i donošenjem adekvatnih smernica i politika za finansijski sektor kako bi se sanirale posledice klimatskih promena imajuću u vidu uticaj tih promena na cenovnu i finansijsku stabilnost. Kako bi se postigla nisko-karbonična ekonomija neophodno je promeniti postojeći način poslovanja baziran na prljavim tehnologijama i napraviti zaokret ka izgradnji održive ekonomije koja aktivno brine o očuvanju životne sredine. Radi postizanja tog cilja neophodno je da centralne banke aktivno rade na razvoju zelenih finansijskih instrumenata i daljem razvoju finansijskih tržišta. Kako klimatske promene predstavljaju globalni problem, neophodno je da postoji koordinacija mera monetarne, makroprudencijalne i fiskalne politike kako bi se neutralisali negativni efekti postojećih i budućih efekata klimatskih promena. U ovom radu analiziraćemo klimatske promene i ulogu centralnih banaka, i to pre svega vodećih centralnih banaka poput Evropske centralne banke, Banke Francuske i Banke Engleske. Pregled literature Tokom postojanja planete, klima na Zemlji se mnogo puta menjala–od ledenog doba, do značajno visokih temperatura. Poslednjih nekoliko decenija zabeležen je porast prosečne temperature vazduha i o povezanim efektima na klimu diskutovalo se na velikom broju foruma (Moretti i saradnici, 2010). Klimatske promene su naša realnost, jer sve veći cikloni i produženi sušni periodi dovode do uništavanja infrastrukture, narušavanja sredstava za život i doprinose masovnoj migraciji (Grippa i saradnici, 2019). Mark Carney, nekadašnji guverner Centralne banke Kanade i Banke Engleske, je među prvima u septembru 2015. god. ukazao na rizike od klimatskih promena i upozorio da klimatske promene mogu dovesti do finansijske krize i smanjenje životnog standarda, ukoliko vodeće ekonomije ne učine više kako bi obezbedile da njihove kompanije koriste čistu tehnologiju (Carney, 2015). U poslednjih nekoliko godina od centralnih banaka se očekuje da se aktivno bave pitanjem klimatskih promena i predlozi za njihovo angažovanje idu od donošenja programa „zelenih“ kvantitativnih olakšica, do povećanja kapitalnih zahteva koji imaju za cilj da utiču da poslovne banke smanje svoju kreditnu aktivnost ka poslovnim aktivnostima koje nisu u skladu sa očuvanjem životne sredine (Skinner, 2021). Centralne banke i finansijski supervizori su u sve većoj meri svesni da klimatske promene predstavljaju izvor finansijskog rizika i do sada su, u najvećoj meri, napori centralnih banaka bili usmereni ka integraciji rizika, povezanih sa klimatskim promenama, u prudencijalni nadzor (Oustry i saradnici, 2020). Rizik od klimatskih promena je jedinstven po svom karakteru. 87 Dr Vesna Martin Bankarstvo 2022 U pitanju je nepovratan rizik, jer trenutno ne postoji tehnologija koja može da ispravi njegovo dejstvo, a potencijalno je i sistematski imajuću u vidu da njegovom materijalizacijom se može transformisati funkcionisanje celokupne ekonomije. Realizacija klimatskih rizika može da izazove klimatske šokove, koji mogu biti nelinearni i teško predvidivi (Villeroy de Galhau, 2019). Odgovornost centralnih banaka u pogledu supervizije, očuvanja finansijske stabilnosti, upravljanja aktivom i sprovođenja monetarne politike nalažu da se analizira potencijalni sistemski uticaj koji klimatske promene mogu da imaju na ekonomiju i na finansijski sistem kao celinu, uz nastojanje da se pitanja klimatskih promena inkorporira u makroprudencijalnu politiku kao i portfolio menadžment (González i Núñez, 2021). Potrebno je da centralne banke naprave procenu ukupnog rizika od klimatskih promena kako po monetarnu politiku, tako i po očuvanje finansijske stabilnosti imajuću u vidu posledice tih promena. To podrazumeva da se tačno utvrdi kako su i u kojoj meri različiti učesnici finansijskog sistema izloženi riziku klimatskih promena, kao i kako te promene utiču na inflaciju, korišćenje resursa i sprovođenje monetarne politike (Olovsson, 2018). Analiza Diluiso i saradnika (2022) je pokazala da učešće centralnih banaka u rešavanju pitanja klimatskih promena mora da bude adekvatno dizajnirano, kako bi bilo u skladu da njihovim mandatom. Breitenfellner i saradnici (2019) ukazuju na značajnu ulogu centralnih banaka u razvoju zelenih finansija, kako bi se očuvala makroekonomska i finansijska stabilnost. Prema njihovoj analizi cilj zelenih finansija je postizanje zelenog finansijskog sistema, time što bi se usmerili finansijski tokovi prema investicijama koje podržavaju očuvanje životne sredine i ograničavaju efekte klimatskih promena. Pionir u pružanju podrške zelenim finansijama je centralna banka Kine koja je 2018. god. sprovodila politiku koja se može označiti kao „zelena monetarna politika“ (Chen i saradnici, 2020). Značaj razvoja zelenih finansija proizilazi iz značajne razlike između postojećih mogućnosti i procenjenog obima novog kapitala koji je potreban svake godine kako bi se finansirala tranzicija privrede i društva na korišćenje niske emisije ugljenika (Langley i Morris, 2020). Uloga centralnih banaka može biti efikasna samo ako je deo dobro koordinisane strategije na nacionalnom i međunarodnom nivou. Na nacionalnom nivou ključna je saradnja sa predstavnicima fiskalne politike kako bi se implementirale mere podrške za razvoj zelenih investicija, dok je na međunarodnom nivou neophodna saradnja radi razmene mišljenja o primeni najboljih mera i međunarodne prakse (Arndt i saradnici, 2020). Centralne banke nisu izolovane od dejstva klimatskih promena i njihovih posledica i neophodno je da u različitim oblastima svog poslovanja primene aspekt održivosti, kako u upravljanju sopstvenim portfoliom, tako i u području supervizije i finansijske stabilnosti (González Martínez, 2021). Kada je u pitanju intervencija centralnih banaka po pitanju „ozelenjavanja“ mandata centralnih banaka Ramos Muñoz i saradnici (2022) ukazuju da je potrebno sagledati tri aspekta. Prvo, potrebno je odrediti da li centralna banka treba da interveniše, odnosno da li se pitanje klimatskih promena može inkorporirati u definiciju mandata centralnih banaka. Drugo, neophodno je sagledati kada centralna banka treba da interveniše (da li da centralne banke odmah reaguju ili da sačekaju dok ne prikupe dovoljno podataka o uticaju klimatskih promena) i treće, važno je odrediti način intervenisanja. 88 Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Klimatske promene utiču na finansijski sistem preko finansijske aktive koja može da zabeleži gubitke kako za pojedince, tako i za celokupan finansijski sistem. Ove promene mogu uticati na moguće bankrotstvo kompanija, kao i na razduživanje banaka, što može dovesti do finansijske nestabilnosti (Masciandaro i Tarsia, 2021). Pojedine centralne banke su započele analizu implikacija klimatskih promena i tranziciju na korišćenje niske emisije ugljenika za finansijski sektor, imajući u vidu da su centralne banke zadužene za finansijsku regulativu i superviziju (Campiglio i saradnici, 2018). Ozili (2021) predlaže sledeće mere koje centralne banke mogu primeniti radi saniranja posledica klimatskih promena. Prvo, moguće je da centralne banke uvedu dodatni sloj kapitala koji se odnosi na klimatske promene, potom da smanje kreditnu aktivnost ka onim industrijama koje uništavaju životnu sredinu i klimu, potom da se osnuje posebna banka koja će se baviti pitanjima klimatskih promena, kao i da centralna banka traži od finansijskih institucija da izvrše realokaciju svoje aktive, kako bi bila manje izložena uticaju klimatskih promena. Klimatske promene – opšta zapažanja Kako bi se bolje razumele klimatske promene neophodno je precizirati šta one predstavljaju. Prema Ujedinjenim nacijama klimatske promene predstavljaju dugoročnu promenu temperature i obrazaca vremena. Pri tome ove promene mogu biti izazvane prirodnim faktorima, kao što su promene solarnih ciklusa. Međutim od 1800-tih glavni uzročnih klimatskih promena jesu aktivnosti ljudi i to primarno kroz sagorevanje fosilnih goriva, kao što su gas, nafta i ugalj. Klimatske promene utiču na zdravlje ljudi, na proizvodnju hrane, stanogradnju, kao i na bezbednost i na način obavljanja radnih aktivnosti. Pojedini delovi planete Zemlje su već izloženiji uticaju klimatskih promena, kao što su ljudi koji žive na manjim ostrvskim zemljama i drugim zemljama u razvoju. Usled klimatskih promena došlo je do pada nivoa mora i povećanja saliniteta vode, što je dovelo do neophodnosti da se ljudi presele, a dugotrajne suše su nametnule rizik od gladi. U budućnosti može se očekivati porast klimatskih izbeglica (United Nations). Nešto detaljnija definicija klimatskih promena je sadržana u Okvirnoj konvenciji Ujedinjenih nacija o klimatskim promenama, gde je u članu 1. navedeno da klimatske promene podrazumevaju promenu klime koja se direktno ili indirektno pripisuje ljudskim aktivnostima, a koje menjaju sastav globalne atmosfere i koja je, pored prirodnih klimatskih promena, zabeležena u uporedivim vremenskim periodima (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Kako bi se klimatske promene pretočile u finansijske rizike neophodno je uvesti koncept klimatskih rizika, koji se mogu grupisati u dve kategorije – fizički rizici i tranzicioni rizici. Fizički rizici podrazumevaju promene vremenskih uslova i klime koji utiču na ekonomiju. Ovi rizici se mogu kategorizovati kao akutni rizici koji se odnose na ekstremne vremenske uslove ili kao hronični rizici koji su povezani sa postepenim promenama klimatskih uslova. Akutni fizički rizici se u opštem slučaju odnose na toplotne talase, poplave, požare i oluje, što uključuje uragane, tajfune i ciklone. Tranzicioni rizici podrazumevaju tranziciju ka ekonomiji koja u manjoj meri koristi ugljen-dioksid. Ovi rizici se odnose na promene politika poslovanja javnog sektora, inovacije i promene u dostupnosti postojeće tehnologije (na primer tehnologije koje koriste obnovljivu energiju ili omogućavaju otklanjanje atmosferskih gasova staklene bašte), kao i nastojanje investitora i potrošača da ostvare zeleniju životnu sredinu. Pored dva glavna rizika klimatskih promena potrebno je navesti i druge rizike koje ove promene mogu da izazovu: (1) kreditni rizik (ukoliko dođe do porasta klimatskih rizika može se desiti porast i kreditnog rizika, što posledično utiče na sposobnost dužnika da svoje 89 Dr Vesna Martin Bankarstvo 2022 je obaveze plaća na vreme); (2) tržišni rizik (smanjenje vrednosti finansijske aktive može biti izazvana klimatskim rizicima); (3) rizik likvidnosti (ukoliko se desi promena tržišnih uslova, uslovljena klimatskim rizicima, može se smanjiti pristup banaka stabilnim izvorima finansiranja); (4) operativni rizik (rizik koji proističe iz neophodne usaglašenosti sa pravnim propisima) i (5) rizik reputacije (porast rizika reputacije banaka može se realizovati ukoliko se desi promena tržišnog ponašanja ili sentimenta klijenata) (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision). Pored fizičkih i tranzicionih rizika u okviru glavnih klimatskih rizika Banka Engleske obuhvata i rizik odgovornosti (eng. liability risks), koji proizilazi iz kompenzacije koje pojedinci ili kompanije traže kao nadoknadu za gubitke koje su pretrpeli realizacijom fizičkih ili tranzicionih rizika. Slučajevi odgovornosti mogu da uključe pojedince koji mogu da pretrpe neki od fizičkih rizika, kao što je na primer poplava, i da zatraže neku vrstu nadoknade od kompanija zagađivača koje su barem delimično odgovorne (Banka Engleske, 2019). Sa nastojanjem da se smanji uticaj klimatskih promena potpisano je nekoliko protokola i ugovora. U junu 1992. održana je Konferencija Ujedinjenih nacija o životnoj sredini i razvoju (eng. United Nations Conference on Environment and Development – UNCED) i okupila je političke lidere, diplomate, naučnike, predstavnike medija i nevladinih organizacija iz 179 zemalja sa ciljem da se sagleda uticaj socio-ekonomskih aktivnosti na životnu sredinu (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development). Nakon toga je u decembru 1997. usvojen Kjoto protokol, koji je nakon komplikovanog procesa ratifikacije stupio na snagu u februaru 2005. god. Kjoto protokol podrazumeva operacionalizaciju Okvirne konvencije Ujedinjenih nacija o klimatskim promenama (eng. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) i označava obavezu industrijalizovanim zemljama i ekonomijama u tranziciji da ograniče emisiju gasova staklene bašte u skladu sa individualno postavljenim ciljevima (Kyoto Protocol). U decembru 2015. god., sa primenom od novembra 2016. god., potpisan je Pariski sporazum kao međunarodno obavezujući ugovor o klimatskim promenama. Sporazum je potpisalo 196 članica na Konferenciji Ujedinjenih nacija o klimatskim promenama održanoj 2015. god. Cilj Pariskog sporazuma je da se ograniči globalno zagrevanje na ispod 2, po mogućnosti na 1,5 stepeni Celzijusa, u poređenju sa temperaturom zabeleženom u predindustrijskom periodu. Kako bi se postigao navedeni temperaturni cilj neophodno je da zemlje postignu klimatski neutralni svet do sredine ovog veka. Pariski sporazum podrazumeva ekonomsku i socijalnu transformaciju, koja je zasnovana na najboljim naučnim rešenjima (Pariski sporazum). U Parizu je dve godine kasnije osnovana Mreža za ozelenjavanje finansijskog sistema (eng. Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System - NGFS) od strane vodećih centralnih banaka i regulatora sa ciljem da se obezbedi značajniji globalni odgovor koji je potreban radi ispunjenja ciljeva definisanih Pariskim sporazumom (Tooze, 2019). Cilj ove mreže je da ojača globalni odgovor kako bi se ostvarili ciljevi definisani Pariskim sporazumom, kao i da se poboljša uloga finansijskog sistema, kako bi upravljali rizicima i mobilisali kapital za zelene investicije (NGFS). 90 Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Klimatske promene i uloga Evropske centralne banke Od 2007. god. Evropska centralna banka (ECB) je odlučila da preduzme mere kako bi se na sistemski način bavila pitanjem održivosti životne sredine. Potom je 2010, 2013, 2016. i 2019. god. objavila Izveštaj o životnoj sredini (eng. ECB environmental statement) u kojima je navela rezime napora ECB-a u pogledu očuvanja životne sredine. ECB je posvećena učešću u rešavanju problema klimatskih promena u okviru njihovog mandata. ECB daje veliki značaj klimatskim promenama i u januaru 2021. god. osnovala je centar za klimatske promene sa ciljem objedinjavanja rada na klimatskim promenama u različitim organizacionim delovima ECB-a. Rad ECB-a u pogledu klimatskih promena se fokusira na tri glavna cilja – Grafikon 1. Prvi cilj se odnosi na monitoring i upravljanje klimatskim rizicima sa ciljem postizanja cenovne stabilnosti i sigurnosti bankarskog sistema. ECB je klimatske rizike inkorporirala u: (1) analize i proces donošenja odluka; (2) makroekonomske modele, projekcije i utvrđivanje scenarija; (3) procenu finansijske stabilnosti; (4) analizu monetarne politike i transmisionog mehanizma i (5) proces upravljanja rizikom. Merenje i monitoring fizičkih i tranzicionih rizika su važni za ECB kako bi obezbedila stabilnost i sigurnost poslovanja bankarskog sektora zone evra, kao i celokupnog bankarskog sistema. Upravo je odgovornost ECB-a da utvrdi da li banke zone evra mogu pravovremeno da prepoznaju, upravljaju i otkriju klimatske rizike (ECB). Grafikon 1: Tri strateška cilja za klimatske promene Izvor: ECBa – Evropska centralna banka, ECB climate agenda 2022, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220704_annex~cb39c2dcbb.en.pdf Drugi cilj u pogledu klimatskih promena se odnosi na podršku zelenoj tranziciji. Kako bi se izbegli najgori efekti klimatskih promena neophodno je smanjiti emisiju ugljen-dioksida. Zbog toga se Evropska unija obavezala da će smanjiti emisiju ugljen-dioksida za 55% do 2020. god. i da će postići nultu emisiju do 2050. god. Iako je primarna odgovornost vlada i regulatora da pokrenu i podrže ovu tranziciju, veoma je važna uloga ECB-a u promovisanju održivih finansija i „ozelenjavanju“ operacija monetarne politike, bez ugrožavanja primarnog cilja koji se odnosi na postizanje i održavanje cenovne stabilnosti. U julu 2022. god. ECB je donela klimatski akcioni plan kako bi pitanje klimatskih promena uključila u strategiju monetarne politike. 91 Dr Vesna Martin Bankarstvo 2022 Taj klimatski plan podrazumeva da ECB dodatno inkorporira klimatske promene u okvir monetarne politike, potom da proširi svoj analitički kapacitet u domenu makroekonomskog modelovanja, statistike i monetarne politike u domenu klimatskih promena, zatim da uključi pitanje klimatskih promena u operacije monetarne politike (ECB uzima u obzir klimatske promene pri sprovođenju programa kupovine korporativnih obveznica, pri određivanju potrebnog kolaterala, kao i u slučaju upravljanja rizikom), kao i da primeni klimatski akcioni plan u skladu sa napretkom Evropske unije u pogledu primenjenih politika i inicijativa u domenu obelodanjivanja i izveštavanja o održivosti životne sredine (ECBb). Treći cilj ECB-a u pogledu klimatskih promena se odnosi na podsticanje šire akcije. Rešavanje problema klimatskih promena predstavlja globalni izazov i iz tog razloga je potrebno uključenje velikog broja učesnika. ECB zbog toga deli svoju ekspertizu i aktivno radi na prihvatanju i promovisanju najbolje prakse radi rešavanja problema klimatskih promena. Po tom osnovu ECB aktivno sarađuje sa partnerima iz Evrope, ali i na međunarodnom nivou, potom ECB intenzivno sprovodi aktivnosti kako bi podstakla transparentnost aktivnosti koje sprovodi na polju rešavanja klimatskih promena i nastoji da smanji svoj uticaj na okruženje kako bi se postigla nulta emisija ugljen-dioksida do 2050. god. U januaru 2022. ECB je pokrenula klimatske stres testove kako bi procenila u kojoj meri je bankarski sektor spreman da se izbori sa finansijskim i ekonomskim šokovima koji proističu od klimatskih promena. Stres test obuhvata tri različita modula: (1) upitnik o kapacitetu banaka da sprovedu klimatske stres testove; (2) analizu održivosti bankarskih modela banaka i njihove izloženosti ka kompanijama koje imaju intenzivnu emisiju ugljen-dioksida, i (3) sprovođenje stres test odozdo prema gore (eng. bottom-up stress test) koji podrazumeva da stres testovi sprovode pojedinačne finansijske institucije, koristeći sopstveni okvir (Banking supervision, 2022). U julu 2022. god. ECB je objavila rezultate klimatskih stres testova koji su pokazali da banke zone evra nisu u dovoljnoj meri klimatski rizik uključile u svoj okvir stres testova i u svoje interne modele, iako je od 2020. god. napravljen određen nivo napretka. Primenjen klimatski stres test, koji predstavlja deo aktivnosti ECB-a u pogledu klimatske mape, nije predstavljao procenu da li banke zone evra imaju dovoljan nivo kapitala, već pokaznu vežbu za banke i supervizore. Putem sprovedenog stres testa prikupljene su kvalitativne i kvantitativne informacije o proceni spremnosti bankarskog sektora na klimatske rizike, uz prikupljanje podataka o sprovođenju najbolje prakse. U navedenom klimatskom stres testu učestvovalo je 104 banaka iz zone evra i rezultati su pokazali da na bazi prvog modula, koji obuhvata upitnik o kapacitetu banaka da sprovedu klimatske stres testove, oko 60% banaka nije još uvek uvrstilo klimatske rizike u svoje modele kreditnog rizika i da samo 20% banaka uzima u obzir klimatski rizik kada odobrava kredit.U okviru drugog modula, koji predstavlja analizu održivosti bankarskih modela i njihove izloženosti ka kompanijama koje imaju intenzivnu emisiju ugljen-dioksida, skoro dve trećine prihoda banaka potiče od nefinansijskih korporativnih klijenata koji intenzivno koriste gasove staklene bašte. Sprovođenje bottom-up stress testa, kao trećeg modula, pokazao je da su banke projektovale gubitke u slučaju realizacije ekstremnih vremenskih uslova. Ovaj modul je potvrdio da fizički rizik ima različiti uticaj na evropske banke i ukazao da su banke naročito ranjive u slučaju realizacije scenarija suša i visokih temperatura, što zavisi od njihovih sektorskih aktivnosti i geografske lokacije njihove izloženosti. Primenjeni klimatski stres test je pokazao posvećenost ECB-a da bankama zone evra olakša zelenu tranziciju. Upravo su rezultati tog testa ukazali neophodnost da evropske banke ojačaju kapacitet klimatskog stres testiranja i da se pripreme za rizike i mogućnosti koji vode na nultoj emisiji ugljen-dioksida (Banking supervision, 2022a). 92 Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Klimatske promene i uloga Banke Francuske Francuska je 2015. god. usvojila Nacionalnu strategiju za postizanje niske emisije ugljen-dioksida (eng. National Low-Carbon Strategy – SNBC), koja predstavlja okosnicu u borbi protiv klimatskih promena. Nacionalna strategija je revidirana 2018-2019. god., a potom su nove verzije Nacionalne strategije za periode 2019-2023, 2024-2028 i 2029-2033. god. usvojene u aprilu 2020. god. Nacionalna strategija podrazumeva smernice za implementaciju mera u svim sektorima, potom tranziciju ka niskoj upotrebi ugljen-dioksida, kao i postizanje cirkularne i održive ekonomije. Pored toga, Nacionalna strategija definiše vremenske odrednice o smanjenju emisije ugljen-dioksida do 2025. god., a takođe postavlja ciljeve u kratkom i srednjem roku – Grafikon 2. Dva glavna cilja strategije su postizanje neutralnosti do 2050. god. u nivou ugljen-dioksida i da se smanji nivo emisija ugljen-dioksida i ostalih komponenti baziranih na ugljeniku u potrošnji francuske ekonomije (National Low-Carbon Strategy – SNBC). U januaru 2020. god. Banka Francuske i Banka za međunarodna poravnanja su objavile zajednički izveštaj pod nazivom „Zeleni labud“ (eng. „Green Swan“) u kojem su ukazale da klimatske promene stvaraju nove izazove za centralne banke, regulatore i supervizore. Poseban deo analize je usmeren ka ukazivanju na koji način klimatski rizici utiču na finansijsku stabilnost. Naime, neophodno je pomno pratiti klimatske rizike radi postizanja i očuvanja finansijske stabilnosti, imajući u vidu značajnu neizvesnost koja je povezana sa društvenim i ekonomskim faktorima koji imaju tendenciju velikih promena. Tradicionalne procene rizika, kao i postojeći klimatsko-ekonomski modeli nisu u mogućnosti da predvide na koji način se klimatski rizici mogu realizovati. To zapravo uključuje ono što zajednička analiza dve banke naziva rizicima „zelenog labuda“, a odnosi se na potencijalno značajne finansijske nestabilnosti koji bi mogli da predstavljaju izvor naredne sistemske finansijske krize. Značajnu ulogu u izbegavanju realizacije takve krize imaju centralne banke, što uključuje njihovo nastojanje da poboljšaju razumevanje klimatskih rizika zbog razvoja scenarija analize (eng. scenario-based analysis). Ipak, potrebno je ukazati da centralne banke ne mogu samostalno da deluju u borbi protiv klimatskih promena. Kako se radi o kompleksnom problemu potrebno je da se uključe mnogi učesnici, poput predstavnika vlada, privatnog sektora, civilnog društva i međunarodne zajednice. Time centralne banke dobijaju dodatnu ulogu koja se odnosi na podršku u procesu koordinacije mera u borbi protiv klimatskih promena. U tom pogledu neophodno je da centralne banke razviju politiku ublažavanja klimatskih promena, potom da integrišu princip održivosti u finansijskoj praksi i u računovodstvene okvire, ali i da razviju nove finansijske mehanizme na međunarodnom nivou. Navedene inicijative centralnih banaka bi trebalo da doprinesu očuvanju finansijske (i cenovne) stabilnosti u dugom roku u vremenu izraženih klimatskih promena (Bolton i saradnici, 2020). 93 Bankarstvo 2022 Dr Vesna Martin Grafikon 2: Evolucija emisije CO2 (u kilotonama CO2) Izvor: Countries, Wake up! What is Being Done against Climate Change?, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/countries-wake-what-being-done-against-climate-change Banka Francuske je u aprilu 2020. god. razvila scenario klimatskih promena sa nastojanjem da projektuje bruto domaći proizvod i to projekciju štete koju bi bruto domaći proizvod pretrpeo usled klimatskih promena i uticaj mera za ublažavanje tih promena na nivo bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Model koji je nazvan Napredni dugoročni model klimatskih promena (eng. Advanced Climate Change Longterm model – ACCL) obuhvata projekciju bruto domaćeg proizvoda za period od 2060. do 2100. god. za trideset zemalja/regiona. Model projektuje dugoročni efekat uticaja oporezivanja ugljen-dioksida na ekonomski rast kroz dva kanala. Prvi se odnosi na negativne efekte uvođenja poreza na ugljen-dioksid, što posledično vodi do viših cena energenata, dok se drugi kanal bazira na pozitivnom ekonomskom uticaju oporezivanja ugljen-dioksida, kroz smanjenje te emisije. Analiza je pokazala da se u srednjem roku može očekivati neto gubitak bruto domaćeg proizvoda, što je izazvano klimatskim promenama, dok je nešto povoljniji uticaj u dugom roku (Alestra i saradnici, 2020). Između jula 2020. i aprila 2021. god. Uprava za prudencijalni nadzor Francuske (eng. French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority – ACPR) je pokrenula važan korak u pogledu supervizije klimatskih rizika. To je prvi put da je telo zaduženo za superviziju primenilo klimatski stres test odozdo prema gore (eng. bottom-up stress test) koji je baziran na direktnoj proceni finansijskih institucija koje su pod njenim nadzorom. Klimatski stres test je sproveden na vremenskom horizontu od 30 godina, upotrebljena je metodologija koja se bazira na analizi scenarija po ekonomskim sektorima, obuhvaćeni su fizički i tranzicioni rizici i institucije koje su učestvovale i direktno procenile svoj rizik na bazi zajedničkih pretpostavki. U ovom stres testu na dobrovoljnoj osnovi učestvovalo je 9 bankarskih grupa, koje čine 85% aktive ukupnog bankarskog sektora Francuske, i 15 društava za osiguranje, koja čine 75% aktive ukupnog sektora osiguranja Francuske. Rezultati sprovedenog klimatskog stres testa su pokazali da bankarski sistem i sektor osiguranja imaju umerenu izloženost klimatskim rizicima. Ipak, ovaj zaključak treba razumeti u kontekstu neizvesnosti kako brzine, tako i uticaja klimatskih promena. 94 Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Analiza uticaja klimatskih rizika na finansijski sistem biće primenjena na redovnoj osnovi, a sledeći klimatski stres testovi biće sprovedeni 2023/2024 (ACPR). U martu 2021. god. Banka Francuske je osnovala Centar za klimatske promene (eng. Climate Change Centre), jer je uočila značaj klimatskih promena i integrisala je ambiciozne akcije u svoju korporativnu strategiju. Centar za klimatske promene deluje kao čvorište centralne banke kako bi koordinirao mere različitih organizacionih jedinica Banke Francuske u domenu borbe protiv klimatskih promena. Sam Centar za svoje poslovanje odgovara Sektoru za finansijsku stabilnost i operativan je od 1. aprila 2021. god. Pored toga, Centar obezbeđuje da inicijative Banke Francuske budu usaglašene sa prioritetima Mreže za ozelenjavanje finansijskog sistema (eng. Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System - NGFS), za koju je Banka Francuske od decembra 2017. god. obezbedila sekretarijat (Climate Change Centre). Krajem aprila 2022. god. Banka Francuske postala je do mreže kompanije CDP, koja predstavlja neprofitnu dobrotvornu organizaciju osnovanu sa ciljem da saopštava podatke investitorima, kompanijama, državama, regionima i gradovima kako bi upravljali svojim uticajem na životnu sredinu. Time je Banka Francuske postala prva centralnu banku na svetu koja je zatražila od kompanija da otkriju svoje podatke o uticaju na životnu sredinu. Pridruženjem kompaniji CDP Banka Francuske postojala je deo grupe od 680 finansijskih institucija koje imaju aktivu u vrednosti od 130 biliona dolara. Ovaj potez Banke Francuske predstavlja nastojanje da se postigne neutralna emisija ugljen-dioksida do 2030. god., kao i da se ispune ciljevi definisani Pariskim sporazumom (CDP). 95 Bankarstvo 2022 Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga Banke Engleske Banka Engleske je na klimatske promene reagovala odlukama i merama iz domena finansijske regulacije i supervizije, potom kroz međunarodnu saradnju i inicijative, kao i u okviru operacija same centralne banke. Banka Engleske nastavlja da deluje proaktivno, kako bi na adekvatan način odgovorila na rizike klimatskih promena. Napori Banke Engleske su usmereni ka ispunjenju ciljeva klimatskih promena – Grafikon 3. Grafikon 3: Ciljevi klimatskih promena Note: TCFD - Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures - Radna grupa za finansijska obelodanjivanja u vezi sa klimom Izvor: Banka Engleske, 2022, Climate change, Pristupljeno: 25.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/climate-change U pogledu finansijske regulacije i supervizije Banka Engleske je u aprilu 2019. god., a na bazi izveštaja o stanju u sektoru osiguranja iz 2015. god. i izveštaja o stanju u bankarskom sektoru iz 2018. god., postala prva centralna banka i supervizor koji je postavio supervizorska očekivanja za banke i osiguravajuća društva u pogledu adekvatnog upravljanja klimatskim rizicima. Time je Banka Engleske postavila jasna očekivanja po pitanju strateškog pristupa za upravljanje klimatskim promenama, uključujući identifikovanje trenutnih rizika, kao i onih koji se potencijalno mogu pojaviti u budućnosti, uz donošenje adekvatnih mera koje će ublažiti te rizike. Nakon toga je u 2020. god. usledilo slanje pisma kompanijama nazvano „Dear CEO Letter“ u kojem je Banka Engleske dala detaljno uputstvo kako kompanije treba da upravljaju klimatskim rizicima do kraja 2021. god. U oktobru 2021. god. objavljen je Drugi izveštaj o prilagođavanju klimatskim promenama (eng. second climate change adaptation report – CAR) u kojem je naveden napredak koje su kompanije napravile po pitanju upravljanja klimatskim rizicima (Climate Change Adaptation Report 2021). Od 2022. god. pa nadalje Banka Engleske nastaviće sa sprovođenjem aktivnog nadzora kompanija i klimatski rizici sada predstavljaju osnovnu komponentu pristupa supervizije ove centralne banke. 96 Dr Vesna Martin Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka U martu 2019. god. Banka Engleske je zajedno sa Upravom za finansijsko ponašanje (eng. Financial Conduct Authority – FCA) osnovala Forum za klimatske rizike (eng. Climate Financial Risk Forum CFRF) sa ciljem da se podeli najbolja praksa u upravljanju finansijskim rizicima koji proističu iz klimatskih promena. Forum obuhvata predstavnike iz finansijskog sektora i bazira se na radu četiri radne grupe koje se bave upravljanjem rizika, analizom scenarija, objavljivanjem informacija i inovacijama. U junu 2020. god. Forum je objavio smernice kako bi pomogao finansijskoj industriji da adekvatno prati klimatske rizike, dok je u oktobru 2021. god. publikovao drugu rundu smernica. Kako bi procenila uticaj klimatskih rizika na finansijski sistem Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva Banka Engleske je u junu 2021. god. objavila dokument ključnih elemenata. U tom dokumentu naveden je opis stres testova koji se sprovodi na dve godine u kojima se ocenjuje otpornost finansijskog sistema na fizičke rizike koji proističu od klimatskih promena. Istovremeno su sprovedeni stres testovi za banke i za društva za osiguranje gde je Banka Engleske imala mogućnost da proceni interakciju između ova dva sektora i da razume prisutan rizik od klimatskih promena u finansijskom sistemu. U pogledu međunarodne saradnje i inicijativa Banka Engleske je jedan od osnivača Mreže za ozelenjavanje finansijskog sistema (eng. Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System - NGFS) i imala je vodeću ulogu u razvoju NGFS-a u pogledu boljeg razumevanja makroekonomskih i finansijskih rizika koji proističu iz klimatskih promena. Pored toga, Banka Engleske je suosnivač Foruma održivog osiguranja (eng. Sustainable Insurance Forum - SIF) koji obuhvata globalnu mrežu supervizora i regulatora u oblasti osiguranja, koji rade zajedno u identifikovanju izazova sa kojima se suočava sektor osiguranja, uključujući klimatske promene. Odbor za finansijsku stabilnost (eng. Financial Stability Board – FSB), čiji je član Banka Engleske, je na zahtev grupe G20 u 2015. god. osnovao Radnu grupu za finansijska obelodanjivanja u vezi sa klimom (eng. Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures – TCFD). Cilj ove Radne grupe je stvaranje globalnih standarda za otkrivanje podataka o klimatskim promenama. U okviru operacija same centralne banke,Banka Engleske je dosta uradila po pitanju klimatskih promena. Te operacije se mogu podeliti na fizičke i na finansijske operacije. U okviru fizičkih operacija 2020. god. donet je cilj da se smanji apsolutna emisija gasova staklene bašte od 2016. do 2030. god. za 63%. Po pitanju finansijskih operacija u maju 2021. god. dat je predlog o „ozelenjavanju“ programa kupovine korporativnih obveznica (eng. Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme – CBPS). Nakon toga Odbor za monetarnu politiku Banke Engleske je u februaru 2022. god. saopštio da će smanjiti portfolio korporativnih obveznica i da će tu odluku da primeni do kraja 2023. god. ili najkasnije do početka 2024. god. Cilj ove odluke je diversifikacija portfolija, uključujući „ozelenjavanje“. Time centralna banka želi da pruži primer drugim investitorima kako bi podržali klimatsku tranziciju kroz veće emitovanje zelenih korporativnih obveznica. 97 Dr Vesna Martin Bankarstvo 2022 Zaključak Klimatske promene predstavljaju novi izazov sa kojim se suočavaju centralne banke imajuću u vidu da upravo te promene utiču na postizanje i očuvanje cenovne i finansijske stabilnosti koji predstavljaju glavne ciljeve za većinu centralnih banaka. Upravo iz tog razloga centralne banke su aktivno počele da se bave problemom klimatskih promena, identifikovanjem fizičkih i tranzicionih rizika, analizom njihovog uticaja na finansijski sistem, kao i predlogom mera da se ublaži uticaj tih rizika. Pored toga, centralne banke su započele sprovođenje klimatskih stres testova, zatim aktivno promovišu najbolju praksu u rešavanju klimatskih promena, ali i daju smernice za što bezbolniju zelenu tranziciju i razvoj zelenih finansija. Sve ovo zahteva da postoji kvalitetna baza podataka o uticaju klimatskih promena na realnu ekonomiju i finansijski sistem, kao i da se razvije pravovremen instrumentarijum za upravljanje rizicima klimatskih promena. Ipak, potrebno je ukazati da pitanje rešavanja problema klimatskih promena nije samo na centralnim bankama, već je potrebna dobra koordinacija mera sa vladama, predstavnicima međunarodnih finansijskih organizacija, civilnog društva i privatnog sektora. Kako bi se smanjio uticaj klimatskih promena bilo je nekoliko inicijativa na međunarodnom nivou, poput konferencije Ujedinjenih nacija, Kjoto protokola, Pariskog sporazuma i osnivanja Mreže za ozelenjavanje finansijskog sistema. U ovom radu analiziran je odgovor Evropske centralne banke, Banke Francuske i Banke Engleske na klimatske promene. Evropska centralna banka je od 2007. god. odlučila da se na sistemski način bavi problemom klimatskih promena i na bazi toga je 2010, 2013, 2016. i 2019. god. objavila Izveštaj o životnoj sredini u kojem je prikazala rezime napora u pogledu očuvanja životne sredine. U pogledu klimatskih promena rad Evropske centralne banke se bazira na tri glavna cilja: (1) monitoring i upravljanje klimatskim rizicima sa ciljem postizanja cenovne stabilnosti i sigurnosti bankarskog sistema; (2) podršku zelenoj tranziciji i (3) podsticanje šire akcije. Pored toga, Evropska centralna banka je pokrenula klimatske stres testove čije rezultate je objavila u julu 2022. god. i koji su pokazali da banke zone evra nisu u dovoljnoj meri klimatski rizik uključile u svoj okvir stres testova i u svoje interne modele, iako je od 2020. god. napravljen određen nivo napretka. Okosnicu u borbi protiv klimatskih promena u Francuskoj predstavlja Nacionalna strategija za postizanje niske emisije ugljen-dioksida koja je usvojena 2015. god. Banka Francuske i Banka za međunarodna poravnanja su u januaru 2020. god. objavile zajednički izveštaj pod nazivom „Zeleni labud“ u kojem su ukazale da klimatske promene stvaraju nove izazove za centralne banke, regulatore i supervizore. Nakon toga je Banka Francuske u aprilu 2020. god. razvila scenario klimatskih promena sa nastojanjem da projektuje bruto domaći proizvod i to projekciju štete koju bi bruto domaći proizvod pretrpeo usled klimatskih promena i uticaj mera za ublažavanje tih promena na nivo bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Uprava za prudencijalni nadzor Francuske je u periodu između jula 2020. i aprila 2021. god. primenila klimatski stres test odozdo prema gore i rezultati testa su pokazali da bankarski sistem i sektor osiguranja u Francuskoj imaju umerenu izloženost klimatskim rizicima. Na klimatske promene Banka Engleske je reagovala odlukama i merama iz domena finansijske reguulacije i supervizije, potom kroz međunarodnu saradnju i inicijative, kao i u okviru operacija same centralne banke. Banka Engleske je u aprilu 2019. god. postala prva centralna banka i supervizor koji je postavio supervizorska očekivanja za banke i osiguravajuća društva u pogledu adekvatnog upravljanja klimatskim rizicima. 98 Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Dr Vesna Martin Zajedno sa Upravom za finansijsko ponašanje Banka Engleske je osnovala Forum za klimatske rizike sa ciljem da se podeli najbolja praksa u upravljanju finansijskim rizicima koji proističu iz klimatskih promena. Banka Engleske je imala vodeću ulogu u razvoju Mreže za ozelenjavanje finansijskog sistema, čiji je jedan od osnivača, kao i u razvoju Foruma održivog osiguranja, čiji je suosnivač. Pored navedenog Banka Engleske nastoji da diversifikuje portfolio time što bi dala podstrek investitorima da aktivno rade na većem emitovanju zelenih obveznica. U narednom periodu može se očekivati još aktivniji rad centralnih banaka na polju objavljivanja informacija o uticaju klimatskih promena na realni i finansijski sektor, ali i nastavak primene klimatskih stres testova kako bi se kroz primenu različitih scenarija sagledao uticaj tih promena. Takođe, neophodno je meriti ekonomski trošak klimatskih promena čiji nivo će zavisiti od efikasnosti mera koje se trenutno preduzimaju i koje će u budućem periodu biti preduzete. Svakako će ekonomski trošak biti manji ukoliko centralne banke i svi ostali akteri na čije poslovanje utiču klimatske promene primene adekvatne i pravovremene mere u borbi protiv klimatskih promena. Literatura 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. ACPR - French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority, A first assessment of financial risks stemming from climate change: The main results of the 2020 climate pilot exercise, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://acpr.banque-france.fr/sites/default/ files/medias/documents/ 20210602_as_exercice_pilote_english.pdf Alestra, C., Cette, G., Chouard, V. and Lecat, R. (2020).Long-term growth impact of climate change and policies: the Advanced Climate Change Long-term (ACCL) scenario building model. Banque de France, Working paper 759, 1-34. Arndt, C., Loewald, C. and Makrelov, K. (2020). Climate change and its implications for central banks in emerging and developing economies. South African Reserve Bank, Working Paper Series WP/20/04, 1-25. Banka Engleske, 2019 - Climate change: what are the risks to financial stability?, Pristupljeno:20 .7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/climate-change-what-are-the-risks-to-financial-stability Banka Engleske, 2022 - Climate change, Pristupljeno: 25.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland. co.uk/climate-change Banking supervision, 2022 - ECB Banking Supervision launches 2022 climate risk stress test, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/ pr/date/2022/html/ ssm.pr220127~bd20df4d3a.en.html Banking supervision, 2022a - Banks must sharpen their focus on climate risk, ECB supervisory stress test shows, Pristupljeno:21.7.2022.https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/pr /date/2022/html/ssm.pr220708~565c38d18a.en.html Basel Committee on Banking Supervision - Climate-related risk drivers and their trans mission channels, April 2021, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d517.pdf Bolton, P., Després, M., Pereira Da Silva, L. A., Samama , F. and Svartzman, R. (2020). “ Green Swans”: central banks in the age of climate-related risks. Bank for International Settlements and Banque de France, 1-115. 99 Dr Vesna Martin 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Bankarstvo 2022 Breitenfellner, A., Pointner, W. and Schuberth, H. (2019). The Potential Contribution of Central Banks to Green Finance. German Institute for Economic Research 88(2), 55-71. Campiglio, E., Dafermos, Y., Monnin, P., Ryan-Collins, J., Schotten, G. and Tanaka, M. (2018). Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators. Nature Climate Change 8 (6), 462-468. Carney, M. (2015). Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon – climate change and financial stability, Pristupljeno: 15.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2015/ breaking-the-tragedy-of-the-horizon-climate-change-and-financial-stability. pdf?la=en&hash =7C67E785651862457D99511147C7424FF5EA0C1 CDP - Banque de France joins CDP as world’s first central bank requesting companies to disclose environmental data, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/investor/ banque-de-france-joins-worlds-first-central-bank-cdp Chen, C., Dongyang, P. Bleischwitz, R. and Huang, Z. (2020). Engaging Central Banks in Climate Change? The Mix of Monetary and Climate Policy. Munich Personal RePEc, MPRA Paper No. 103750, 1-44. Climate Change Adaptation Report 2021, Climate-related financial risk management and the role of capital requirements, Pristupljeno: 26.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/ media/boe/files/prudential-regulation/publication/2021/october/climate-change-adaptation-report-2021.pdf?la=en&hash=FF4A0C618471462E10BC704D4AA58727EC8F8720 Climate Change Centre - Green Finance: the Banque de France launches its Climate Change Centre (CCC) and publishes its 3rd Responsible Investment Report (SRI), Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/cp_ra_isr_ et_ccc_engl.pdf Countries, Wake up! What is Being Done against Climate Change?, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/countries-wake-what-being-done-against-cli mate-change Diluiso, F., Annicchiarico, B., Kalkuhl, M. and Minx, J. C. (2022). Climate actions and macro-fi nancial stability: The role of central banks. SUERF Policy Brief No 255, 1-6. ECB – Evropska centralna banka, Climate change and the ECB, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https:// www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/html/index.en.html ECBa – Evropska centralna banka, ECB climate agenda 2022, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https:// www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220704_annex~cb39c2dcbb.en.pdf ECBb – Evropska centralna banka, ECB presents action plan to include climate change con siderations in its monetary policy strategy, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https://www.ecb.europa. eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210708_1~f104919225.en.html González Martínez, C. I. (2021). The role of central banks in combating climate change and developing sustainable finance. Banco de España, Economic Bulletin 3/2021, 1-17. González, C. and Núñez, S. (2021). Markets, financial institutions and central banks in the face of climate change: challenges and opportunities.Banco de España, Documentos Ocasionales. N.º 2126, 1-77. Grippa, P., Schmittmann, J. and Suntheim, F. (2019). Climate change and financial risk. International Monetary Fund, Finance&Development, 26-29. Kyoto Protocol - What is the Kyoto Protocol?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://unfccc.int/kyo to_protocol 100 Dr Vesna Martin 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. Klimatske promene i uloga centralnih banaka Langley, P. and Morris, J. (2020). Central banks: Climate governors of last resort? Economy and Space 52(8), 1471–1479. Masciandaro, D. and Tarsia, R. V. (2021). Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism. Baffi Carefin Centre, Bocconi University, Working paper N. 16 7, 1-33. Moretti, C. L., Mattos, L. M., Calbo, A. G. and Sargent S. A. (2010).Climate changes and potential impacts on postharvest quality of fruit and vegetable crops: A review. Food Research International 43 (7), 1824-1832, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2009.10.013 National Low-Carbon Strategy – SNBC, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://climate-laws. org/geographies/france/policies/national-low-carbon-strategy-snbc NGFS - Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, Origin and Purpose, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.ngfs.net/en/about-us governance/origin -and-purpose Olovsson, C. (2018). Is climate change relevant for central banks? Sveriges Riksbank, Economic Commentaries No. 13, 1-8. Oustry, A., Erkan, B., Svartzman, R. and Weber, P. F. (2020). Climate-related Risks and Central Banks’ Collateral Policy: a Methodological Experiment. Banque de France, Working Paper 790, 1-48. Ozili, P. K. (2021). Managing Climate Change Risk: The Policy Options for Centr Banks. Munich Personal RePEc, MPRA Paper No. 111217, 1-13. Pariski sporazum - What is the Paris Agreement?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://unfccc.int/ process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement Ramos Muñoz, D., Cabrales, A. and Sanchez, A. (2022). Central banks and climate change: Fit, opportunity and suitability in the law and beyond. European Banking Institute, EBI Working Paper Series No. 119, 1-120. Skinner C., (2021). Central Banks and Climate Change. Vanderbilt Law Review 74 (5), 1301-1364. Tooze, A. (2019). Why central banks need to step upon global warming, Pristupljeno: 15.7.20 22. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/20/why-central-banks-need-to-step-up-on-globalwarming/ United Nations - What Is Climate Change?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.un.org/en/ climatechange/what-is-climate-change United Nations Conference on Environment and Development - United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3-14 June 1992, Pristupljeno: 20.7.20 22. https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/rio1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – full text on Climate Change Convention, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://unfccc.int/resource/ccsites/zimbab/conven/text/ art01.htm Villeroy de Galhau, F. (2019).Climate change: central banks are taking action. Financial Stability Review 23, 7-13. 101 Banking 2022 Scientific review aticle Received: 28.07.2022 Accepted: 31.07.2022 DOI: 10.5937/bankarstvo2202086M CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ROLE OF CENTRAL BANKS „Climate change poses the risk of considerable social costs and economic disruption“ Yves Mersch, Frankfurt, 27 November 2018 Vesna Martin, PhD National Bank of Serbia* vesna.martin@nbs.rs martinv0803@hotmail.com Summary In the last few years, central banks have been exposed to new challenges and tasks that they need to face. One of those challenges is climate change, which directly affects the central bank‘s main goals, namely achieving and maintaining price and financial stability. In order to fulfill the goals defined by the Paris Agreement, it is necessary for central banks to take a more active part in the fight against the consequences of climate change. This means that central banks are expected to adopt policies and strategies that will guide the financial sector to successfully manage the risks of climate change and encourage them to direct investments in clean technologies and low-carbon infrastructure. This would achieve sustainable economic development in the long term, which is based on the principle of reducing the risk of climate change, while at the same time preserving the environment. Keywords: climate change; central banks; sustainable finance; green transformation JEL classification: Q54, E58, E42 *The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official view of the National Bank of Serbia. 102 Vesna Martin, PhD Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Introduction Climate change affects the real economy, as well as the entire financial system. Although the mandate of central banks is defined by legal acts, in the last few years new challenges have been posed to these institutions, such as the rise in real estate prices, the risk of climate change and the development of digital currencies. It is necessary for central banks to deal with the analysis and adoption of adequate guidelines and policies for the financial sector in order to rehabilitate the consequences of climate change, bearing in mind the impact of those changes on price and financial stability. In order to achieve a low-carbon economy, it is necessary to change the existing way of doing business based on dirty technologies and make a turn towards building a sustainable economy that actively cares for the preservation of the environment. Aiming to achieve that goal, it is necessary for the central bank to actively work on the development of green financial instruments and the further development of financial markets. Since climate change is a global problem, it is necessary to coordinate measures of monetary, macroprudential and fiscal policy in order to neutralize the negative effects of existing and future effects of climate change. In this paper, we will analyze climate change and the role of central banks, primarily leading central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of France and the Bank of England. Literature Review During the existence of the planet, the climate on Earth has changed many times - from ice ages to significantly higher temperatures. The last few decades have seen an increase in the average air temperature and the related effects on the climate have been discussed in a large number of forums (Moretti et al., 2010). Climate change is our reality, as increasing cyclones and prolonged dry spells lead to the destruction of infrastructure, disruption of livelihoods and contribute to mass migration (Grippa et al., 2019). Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, was among the first to highlight the risks of climate change in September 2015 and warned that climate change could lead to a financial crisis and a reduction in living standards unless leading economies do more to ensure that their companies use clean technology (Carney, 2015). In the last few years, central banks have been expected to actively deal with the issue of climate change, and proposals for their engagement range from adopting “green” quantitative easing programs to increasing capital requirements aimed at influencing commercial banks to reduce their lending activity towards business activities which are not in accordance with the preservation of the environment (Skinner, 2021). Central banks and financial supervisors are increasingly aware that climate change is a source of financial risk and so far, central bank efforts have largely been directed towards integrating climate change risks into prudential supervision (Oustry et al., 2020). The risk of climate change is unique in its character. It is an irreversible risk, because there is currently no technology that can correct its effect, and it is potentially systematic, bearing in mind that its materialization can transform the functioning of the entire economy. The realization of climate risks can cause climate shocks, which can be non-linear and difficult to predict (Villeroy de Galhau, 2019). The responsibility of central banks in terms of supervision, preservation of financial stability, asset management and the implementation of monetary policy require analyzing the potential systemic 103 Climate change and the role of central banks PhD Vesna Martin, Banking 2022 impact that climate change can have on the economy and the financial system as a whole, with an effort to incorporate climate change issues into macroprudential policy as and portfolio management (González and Núñez, 2021). It is necessary for central banks to make an assessment of the overall risk of climate change, both for monetary policy and for the preservation of financial stability, taking into account the consequences of those changes. This entails determining exactly how and to what extent different participants in the financial system are exposed to the risk of climate change, as well as how these changes affect inflation, resource use and the implementation of monetary policy (Olovsson, 2018). Analysis by Diluiso et al. (2022) showed that the participation of central banks in solving climate change issues must be adequately designed in order to be consistent with their mandate. Breitenfellner et al. (2019) point to the significant role of central banks in the development of green finance, in order to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability. According to their analysis, the goal of green finance is to achieve a green financial system by directing financial flows towards investments that support environmental protection and limit the effects of climate change. The pioneer in supporting green finance is the central bank of China, which in 2018 implemented a policy that can be labeled as “green monetary policy” (Chen et al., 2020). The importance of developing green finance stems from the significant gap between existing opportunities and the estimated volume of new capital needed each year to finance the transition of the economy and society to low carbon use (Langley and Morris, 2020). The role of central banks can only be effective if it is part of a well-coordinated strategy at the national and international level. At the national level, cooperation with fiscal policy representatives is key in order to implement support measures for the development of green investments, while at the international level, cooperation is necessary for the exchange of opinions on the implementation of best measures and international practices (Arndt et al., 2020). Central banks are not isolated from the effects of climate change and its consequences, and it is necessary to apply the aspect of sustainability in various areas of their operations, both in the management of their own portfolio and in the area of supervision and financial stability (González Martínez, 2021). When it comes to the intervention of central banks in the matter of “greening” the mandate of central banks, Ramos Muñoz et al. (2022) indicate that it is necessary to look at three aspects. First, it is necessary to determine whether the central bank should intervene, that is, whether the issue of climate change can be incorporated into the definition of the mandate of central banks. Second, it is necessary to consider when the central bank should intervene (whether central banks should react immediately or wait until they collect enough data on the impact of climate change) and thirdly, it is important to determine the way of intervention. Climate change affects the financial system through financial assets that can record losses both for individuals and for the entire financial system. These changes can affect the possible bankruptcy of companies, as well as the deleveraging of banks, which can lead to financial instability (Masciandaro and Tarsia, 2021). Certain central banks have begun analyzing the implications of climate change and the transition to low carbon use for the financial sector, bearing in mind that central banks are in charge of financial regulation and supervision (Campiglio et al., 2018). Ozili (2021) suggests the following measures that central banks can implement to remedy the consequences of climate change. First, it is possible for central banks to introduce an additional capital buffer related to climate change, then to reduce lending activity to those industries that destroy the environment and climate, then to establish a special bank that will deal with climate change issues, as well as to the central bank can ask financial institutions to reallocate their assets in order to be less exposed to the impact of climate change. 104 Vesna Martin, PhD Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Climate Change - General Overview In order to better understand climate change, it is necessary to specify what it represents. According to the United Nations, climate change is a long-term change in temperature and weather patterns. Moreover, these changes can be caused by natural factors, such as changes in solar cycles. However, since the 1800s, the main causes of climate change have been human activities, primarily through the burning of fossil fuels, such as gas, oil and coal. Climate change affects people’s health, food production, housing construction, as well as safety and the way work activities are performed. Certain parts of the planet Earth are already more exposed to the impact of climate change, such as people living in smaller island countries and other developing countries. Due to climate change, there has been a drop in sea levels and an increase in water salinity, which has led to the necessity for people to move, and prolonged droughts have imposed the risk of famine. An increase in climate refugees can be expected in the future (United Nations). A somewhat more detailed definition of climate change is contained in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, where Article 1 states that climate change means climate change that is directly or indirectly attributed to human activities, which changes the composition of the global atmosphere and which, in addition to natural climate change, recorded in comparable time periods (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).In order to translate climate changes into financial risks, it is necessary to introduce the concept of climate risks, which can be grouped into two categories - physical risks and transition risks. Physical risks include changes in weather conditions and climate that affect the economy. These risks can be categorized as acute risks related to extreme weather conditions or as chronic risks related to gradual changes in climate conditions. Acute physical hazards generally refer to heat waves, floods, fires and storms, including hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. Transition risks imply a transition to an economy that uses less carbon dioxide. These risks relate to changes in public sector business policies, innovations and changes in the availability of existing technology (for example, technologies that use renewable energy or enable the elimination of atmospheric greenhouse gases), as well as the efforts of investors and consumers to achieve a greener environment. In addition to the two main risks of climate change, it is necessary to mention other risks caused by these changes: (1) credit risk (if there is an increase in climate risks, there may be an increase in credit risk, which consequently affects the debtor’s ability to pay his obligations on time); (2) market risk (a decrease in the value of financial assets may be caused by climate risks); (3) liquidity risk (if there is a change in market conditions, caused by climate risks, banks’ access to stable sources of financing may be reduced); (4) operational risk (risk arising from the necessary compliance with legal regulations) and (5) reputational risk (an increase in banks’ reputational risk can be realized if there is a change in market behavior or client sentiment) (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision). In addition to physical and transition risks within the main climate risks, the Bank of England also includes liability risk, which arise from the compensation that individuals or companies seek as compensation for the losses suffered by the realization of physical or transition risks. Liability cases can involve individuals who may suffer some of the physical risks, such as flooding, and seek some form of compensation from polluting companies that are at least partially responsible (Bank of England, 2019).In an effort to reduce the impact of climate change, several protocols and agreements have been signed. In June 1992, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) was held and brought together political leaders, diplomats, scientists, representatives of the media and non-governmental organizations from 179 countries with the aim of reviewing the impact of socio-economic activities on the environment (United Nations Conference 105 Vesna Martin, PhD Banking 2022 Conference on Environment and Development). After that, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in December 1997, which after a complicated ratification process entered into force in February 2005. The Kyoto Protocol implies the operationalization of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and signifies an obligation to industrialized countries and economies in transition to limit greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with individual set goals (Kyoto Protocol). In December 2015, with implementation from November 2016, the Paris Agreement was signed as an internationally binding treaty on climate change. The agreement was signed by 196 members at the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in 2015. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the temperature recorded in the pre-industrial period. In order to achieve the stated temperature goal, it is necessary for countries to achieve a climate-neutral world by the middle of this century. The Paris Agreement implies economic and social transformation, which is based on the best scientific solutions (Paris Agreement). In Paris, two years later, the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) was established by leading central banks and regulators with the aim of providing a more significant global response needed to meet the goals defined by the Paris Agreement (Tooze, 2019). The aim of this network is to strengthen the global response to achieve the goals defined by the Paris Agreement, as well as to improve the role of the financial system to manage risks and mobilize capital for green investments (NGFS). 106 Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Vesna Martin, PhD Climate Change and the Role of the European Central Bank Since 2007, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to take actions to address the issue of environmental sustainability in a systemic way. Then, in 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019, it published the ECB environmental statement, in which it stated a summary of the ECB’s efforts to protect the environment. The ECB is committed to participating in addressing climate change within its mandate. The ECB attaches great importance to climate change and in January 2021 it established a climate change center with the aim of unifying the work on climate change in the different organizational parts of the ECB. The ECB’s work on climate change focuses on three main objectives – Graph 1. The first objective refers to the monitoring and management of climate risks with the aim of achieving price stability and security of the banking system. The ECB has incorporated climate risks into: (1) analysis and decision-making process; (2) macroeconomic models, projections and determination of scenarios; (3) assessment of financial stability; (4) analysis of monetary policy and transmission mechanism and (5) risk management process. The measurement and monitoring of physical and transition risks are important for the ECB in order to ensure the stability and security of the banking sector of the euro zone, as well as the entire banking system. It is the responsibility of the ECB to determine whether the banks of the euro zone can recognize, manage and detect climate risks in a timely manner (ECB). Graph 1: Three strategic objectives on climate changes Promote sustainable finance to support an orderly transition to a low-carbon economy Manage and mitigate financial risk of climate change and assess its economic impact Share ECB expertise to foster wider changes in behaviour Source: ECB – European Central Bank, ECB climate agenda 2022, Accessed: 21.7.2022. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220704_annex~cb39c2dcbb.en.pdf The second goal regarding climate change is related to supporting the green transition. In order to avoid the worst effects of climate change, it is necessary to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide. That is why the European Union has committed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 55% by 2020 and to achieve zero emissions by 2050. Although it is the primary responsibility of governments and regulators to initiate and support this transition, the ECB’s role in promoting sustainable finance and “greening” monetary policy operations, without compromising the primary objective of achieving and 107 Vesna Martin, PhD Banking 2022 maintaining price stability, is very important. In July 2022, the ECB adopted a climate action plan to integrate the issue of climate change into the monetary policy strategy. That climate plan implies that the ECB additionally incorporates climate change into the framework of monetary policy, then expands its analytical capacity in the domain of macroeconomic modeling, statistics and monetary policy in the domain of climate change, then includes the issue of climate change in monetary policy operations (the ECB takes into account climate change when implementing the corporate bond purchase program, when determining the required collateral, as well as in the case of risk management), as well as to implement a climate action plan in accordance with the progress of the European Union in terms of applied policies and initiatives in the field of environmental sustainability disclosure and reporting (ECBb). The ECB’s third objective of climate change is about encouraging broader action. Solving the problem of climate change is a global challenge and therefore requires the involvement of a large number of participants. The ECB therefore shares its expertise and actively works to adopt and promote best practice to address climate change. On this basis, the ECB actively cooperates with partners from Europe, but also at the international level, then the ECB intensively implements activities to encourage the transparency of its activities in the field of solving climate change and strives to reduce its impact on the environment in order to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050. In January 2022, the ECB launched climate stress tests to assess the extent to which the banking sector is prepared to cope with financial and economic shocks arising from climate change. The stress test includes three different modules: (1) a questionnaire on banks’ capacity to conduct climate stress tests; (2) analysis of the sustainability of banks’ models and their exposure to companies with intensive carbon dioxide emissions, and (3) the implementation of a bottom-up stress test, which implies that stress tests are carried out by individual financial institutions, using their own framework (Banking supervision, 2022). In July 2022, the ECB published the results of climate stress tests which showed that eurozone banks had not sufficiently incorporated climate risk into their stress test framework and internal models, although some level of progress had been made since 2020. The applied climate stress test, which is part of the ECB’s activities regarding the climate map, was not an assessment of whether euro zone banks have a sufficient level of capital, but a demonstration exercise for banks and supervisors. The conducted stress test collected qualitative and quantitative information on the assessment of the readiness of the banking sector for climate risks, along with the collection of data on the implementation of best practices. 104 eurozone banks participated in the said climate stress test, and the results showed that based on the first module, which includes a questionnaire on banks’ capacity to conduct climate stress tests, around 60% of banks have not yet included climate risks in their credit risk models and only 20% of banks take climate risk into account when approving a loan. In the second module, which presents an analysis of the sustainability banking models and their exposure to companies that have intensive carbon dioxide emissions, almost two-thirds of the banks’ income comes from non-financial corporate clients that intensively use greenhouse gases. The implementation of the bottom-up stress test, as the third module, showed that banks projected losses in case of realization of extreme weather conditions. This module confirmed that physical risk has a different impact on European banks and indicated that banks are particularly vulnerable in the event of a scenario of drought and high temperatures, which depends on their sectoral activities and the geographical location of their exposure. The applied climate stress test showed the ECB’s commitment to facilitate the green transition for euro zone banks. It was the results of that test that indicated the necessity for European banks to strengthen the capacity of climate stress testing and to prepare for the risks and opportunities leading to zero carbon dioxide emissions (Banking supervision, 2022a). 108 Vesna Martin, PhD Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Climate Change and the Role of the Bank of France In 2015, France adopted the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC), which represents the backbone of the fight against climate change. The National Strategy was revised in 2018-2019, and then new versions of the National Strategy for the periods 2019-2023, 2024-2028 and 2029-2033 were adopted in April 2020. The National Strategy includes guidelines for the implementation of measures in all sectors, then the transition to low use of carbon dioxide, as well as achieving a circular and sustainable economy. In addition, the National Strategy defines timelines for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions until 2025, and also sets goals in the short and medium term - Graph 2. The two main goals of the strategy are to achieve neutrality by 2050 in the level of carbon dioxide and to reduce the level of carbon dioxide emissions and other carbon-based components in the consumption of the French economy (National Low-Carbon Strategy - SNBC). In January 2020, the Bank of France and the Bank for International Settlements published a joint report called “Green Swan” in which they indicated that climate change creates new challenges for central banks, regulators and supervisors. A special part of the analysis is aimed at indicating how climate risks affect financial stability. Namely, it is necessary to closely monitor climate risks in order to achieve and preserve financial stability, bearing in mind the significant uncertainty associated with social and economic factors that tend to undergo major changes. Traditional risk assessments, as well as existing climate-economic models, are not able to predict how climate risks can be realized. It actually includes what the two banks’ joint analysis calls “green swan” risks, which refer to potentially significant financial instabilities that could be the source of the next systemic financial crisis. Central banks play a significant role in avoiding the realization of such a crisis, which includes their efforts to improve the understanding of climate risks due to the development of scenario-based analysis. However, it should be pointed out that central banks cannot act independently in the fight against climate change. As it is a complex problem, it is necessary to involve many participants, such as representatives of governments, the private sector, civil society and the international community. Thus, central banks get an additional role related to support in the process of coordinating measures in the fight against climate change. In this regard, it is necessary for central banks to develop a climate change mitigation policy, then to integrate the principle of sustainability in financial practice and accounting frameworks, but also to develop new financial mechanisms at the international level. The mentioned initiatives of the central banks should contribute to the preservation of financial (and price) stability in the long term at the time of pronounced climate changes (Bolton et al., 2020). 109 Banking 2022 Vesna Martin, PhD Graph 2: Evolution of CO2 emissions (in kilotonnes of CO2) 600.000 554.685 499.146 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 166.405 100.000 0 1990 2012 2050 goal Source: Countries, Wake up! What is Being Done against Climate Change?, Accessed: 22.7.2022. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/countries-wake-what-being-done-against-climate-change In April 2020, the Bank of France developed a scenario of climate change in an effort to project the gross domestic product, namely the projection of the damage that the gross domestic product would suffer due to climate change and the impact of measures to mitigate those changes on the level of the gross domestic product. The model, named the Advanced Climate Change Long-term Model (ACCL), includes the projection of gross domestic product for the period from 2060 to 2100 for thirty countries/regions. The model projects the long-term effect of carbon taxation on economic growth through two channels. The first refers to the negative effects of introducing a tax on carbon dioxide, which consequently leads to higher energy prices, while the second channel is based on the positive economic impact of carbon dioxide taxation, through the reduction of that emission. The analysis showed that a net loss of gross domestic product can be expected in the medium term, which is caused by climate change, while the impact is somewhat more favorable in the long term (Alestra et al., 2020). Between July 2020 and April 2021, the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority (ACPR) initiated an important step in the supervision of climate risks. It is the first time that the body in charge of supervision applied a bottom up climate stress test, which is based on a direct assessment of the financial institutions that are under its supervision. The climate stress test was conducted over a time horizon of 30 years, a methodology based on scenario analysis by economic sector, physical and transitional risks were included, and participating institutions directly assessed their risk based on common assumptions. Nine banking groups, which make up 85% of the assets of the total banking sector of France, and fifteen insurance companies, which make up 75% of the assets of the total insurance sector of France, participated in this stress test on a voluntary basis. The results of the conducted climate stress test showed that the banking system and the insurance sector have a moderate exposure to climate risks. However, this conclusion should be understood in the context of the uncertainty of both the speed and impact of climate change. Analysis of the impact of climate risks on the financial system will be applied on a regular basis, and the next climate stress tests will be conducted in 2023/2024 (ACPR). 110 Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Vesna Martin, PhD In March 2021, the Bank of France established the Climate Change Centre, as it recognized the impor-tance of climate change and integrated ambitious actions into its corporate strategy. The Center for Climate Change acts as a hub for the central bank to coordinate the measures of the different organi-zational units of the Bank of France in the field of combating climate change. The Center itself reports to the Financial Stability Department and has been operational since April 1, 2021. In addition, the Center ensures that the Bank of France’s initiatives align with the priorities of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), for which the Bank of France has provided the secretariat since December 2017 (Climate Change Centre). At the end of April 2022, the Bank of France became part of the network of CDP, a non-profit charitable organization founded with the aim of communicating data to investors, companies, states, regions and cities to manage their environmental impact. This made the Bank of France the first central bank in the world to require companies to disclose their environmental impact data. By joining the CDP Bank of France was part of a group of 680 financial institutions that have assets worth 130 billion dollars. This move by the Bank of France represents an effort to achieve neutral carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, as well as to meet the goals defined by the Paris Agreement (CDP). Climate Change and the Role of the Bank of England The Bank of England responded to climate change with decisions and measures from the domain of financial regulation and supervision, then through international cooperation and initiatives, as well as within the operations of the central bank itself. The Bank of England continues to act proactively to respond adequately to the risks of climate change. The Bank of England’s efforts are directed towards meeting climate change targets - Graph 3. Graph 3: Climate change objectives Ensuring the financial system is resilient to climate-related financial risks Supporting an orderly economy-wide transition to net zero emission Promoting the adoption of effective TCFD-aligned climate disclosure Contributing to a co-ordinated international approach to climate change Demonstrating best practice through Bank of England operations Note: TCFD - Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures Source: Bank of England, 2019, Climate change, Accessed: 25.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/climate-change 111 Vesna Martin, PhD Banking 2022 In terms of financial regulation and supervision, the Bank of England in April 2019, based on the 2015 Insurance Outlook and the 2018 Banking Outlook, became the first central bank and supervisor to set supervisory expectations for banks and insurance companies in terms of adequate management of climate risks. In doing so, the Bank of England has set clear expectations for a strategic approach to climate change management, including identifying current risks, as well as those that may potentially arise in the future, with the adoption of adequate measures to mitigate those risks. This was followed in 2020 by sending a letter to companies called “Dear CEO Letter”, in which the Bank of England gave detailed instructions on how companies should manage climate risks until the end of 2021. In October 2021, the Second Report on Adaptation to Climate Change (CAR) in which the progress made by companies in terms of climate risk management is stated (Climate Change Adaptation Report 2021). From 2022 onwards, the Bank of England will continue to exercise active corporate supervision and climate risks are now a core component of the central bank’s supervisory approach. In March 2019, the Bank of England together with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) established the Climate Financial Risk Forum (CFRF) with the aim of sharing best practice in managing the financial risks arising from climate change. The forum includes representatives from the financial sector and is based on the work of four working groups dealing with risk management, scenario analysis, information disclosure and innovation. In June 2020, the Forum published guidance to help the financial industry adequately monitor climate risks, while in October 2021 it published a second round of guidance. In order to assess the impact of climate risks on the financial system of the United Kingdom, the Bank of England published a key element’s document in June 2021. In that document, there is a description of the stress tests that are conducted every two years, in which the resistance of the financial system to physical risks resulting from climate change is evaluated. At the same time, stress tests were carried out for banks and for insurance companies whose Bank of England was able to assess the interaction between these two sectors and to understand the present risk of climate change in the financial system. In terms of international cooperation and initiatives, the Bank of England is one of the founders of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and has played a leading role in the development of the NGFS in terms of a better understanding of macroeconomic and financial risks arising from climate change. In addition, the Bank of England co-founded the Sustainable Insurance Forum (SIF), a global network of insurance supervisors and regulators working together to identify challenges facing the insurance sector, including climate change. The Financial Stability Board (FSB), of which the Bank of England is a member, established the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) in 2015 at the request of the G20 group. The goal of this Working Group is to create global standards for climate change disclosure. Within the operations of the central bank itself, the Bank of England has done a lot on climate change. Those operations can be divided into physical and financial operations. Enclosed by the framework of physical operations in 2020, a goal was adopted to reduce the absolute emission of greenhouse gases from 2016 to 2030 by 63%. Regarding financial operations in May 2021, a proposal was made on the “greening” of the Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS). After that, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announced in February 2022 that it would reduce the portfolio of corporate bonds and that it would implement this decision by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024 at the latest. The aim of this decision is to diversify the portfolio, including “greening”. With this, the central bank wants to set an example for other investors to support the climate transition through a larger issuance of green corporate bonds. 112 Vesna Martin, PhD Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Conclusion Climate changes represent a new challenge that central banks face, bearing in mind that these changes affect the achievement and preservation of price and financial stability, which are the main goals for most central banks. It is precisely for this reason that central banks actively began to deal with the problem of climate change, identifying physical and transition risks, analyzing their impact on the financial system, as well as proposing measures to mitigate the impact of those risks. In addition, central banks have started implementing climate stress tests, then actively promote the best practice in solving climate change, but also provide guidelines for a painless green transition and the development of green finance. All this requires the existence of a quality database on the impact of climate change on the real economy and financial system, as well as the development of timely instruments for managing the risks of climate change. However, it should be pointed out that the issue of solving the problem of climate change is not only up to the central banks, but requires good coordination of measures with governments, representatives of international financial organizations, civil society and the private sector. In order to reduce the impact of climate change there are several initiatives at the international level, such as the United Nations conference, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement and the establishment of the Network for Greening the Financial System. This paper analyzes the response of the European Central Bank, the Bank of France and the Bank of England to climate change. Since 2007, the European Central Bank has decided to address the problem of climate change in a systemic way, and based on that, on 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019, it published an environmental statement, in which it presented a summary of efforts to preserve the environment. With regard to climate change, the work of the European Central Bank is based on three main objectives: (1) monitoring and management of climate risks with the aim of achieving price stability and security of the banking system; (2) supporting the green transition and (3) encouraging broader action. In addition, the European Central Bank launched climate stress tests, the results of which it published in July 2022, which showed that the banks of the euro zone did not sufficiently include climate risk in their stress test framework and in their internal models, although from 2020 a certain level of progress. The backbone of the fight against climate change in France is the National Low-Carbon Strategy, which was adopted in 2015. In January 2020, the Bank of France and the Bank for International Settlements published a joint report called “The Green Swan”, in which they indicated that climate change creates new challenges for central banks, regulators and supervisors. After that, in April 2020, the Bank of France developed a climate change scenario in an effort to project the gross domestic product, namely the projection of the damage that the gross domestic product would suffer due to climate change and the impact of measures to mitigate those changes on the level of the gross domestic product. Between July 2020 and April 2021, the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority applied a bottom-up climate stress test and the results of the test showed that the banking system and the insurance sector in France have a moderate exposure to climate risks. The Bank of England responded to climate change with decisions and measures from the domain of financial regulation and supervision, then through international cooperation and initiatives, as well as within the operations of the central bank itself. In April 2019, the Bank of England became the first 113 Vesna Martin, PhD Banking 2022 central bank and supervisor to set supervisory expectations for banks and insurance companies to adequately manage climate risks. Together with the Financial Conduct Authority, the Bank of England has established a Climate Financial Risk Forum to share best practice in managing financial risks arising from climate change. The Bank of England played a leading role in the development of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, of which he is one of the founders, as well as in the development of the Sustainable Insurance Forum, of which he is a co-founder. In addition to the above said, the Bank of England is trying to diversify its portfolio by giving investors an incentive to actively work on a larger emission of green bonds. In the coming period, we can expect even more active work by central banks in the field of publishing information about the impact of climate change on the real and financial sectors, as well as the continuation of the application of climate stress tests in order to assess the impact of these changes through the application of different scenarios. Also, it is necessary to measure the economic cost of climate change, the level of which will depend on the effectiveness of the measures that are currently being taken and that will be taken in the future. Certainly, the economic cost will be lower if central banks and all other actors whose business is affected by climate change apply adequate and timely measures in the fight against climate change. References 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ACPR - French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority, A first assessment of financial risks stemming from climate change: The main results of the 2020 climate pilot exercise, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://acpr.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/2021 0602_as_exercice_pilote_english.pdf Alestra, C., Cette, G., Chouard, V. and Lecat, R. (2020). Long-term growth impact of climate change and policies: the Advanced Climate Change Long-term (ACCL) scenario building model. Banque de France, Working paper 759, 1-34. Arndt, C., Loewald, C. and Makrelov, K. (2020). Climate change and its implications for central banks in emerging and developing economies. South African Reserve Bank, Working Paper Series WP/20/04, 1-25. Banka Engleske, 2019 - Climate change: what are the risks to financial stability?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/climate-change-what-are-therisks-to-financial-stability Banka Engleske, 2022 - Climate change, Pristupljeno: 25.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland. co.uk/climate-change Banking supervision, 2022 - ECB Banking Supervision launches 2022 climate risk stress test, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/ pr/date/2022/html/ ssm.pr220127~bd20df4d3a.en.html Banking supervision, 2022a - Banks must sharpen their focus on climate risk, ECB supervisory stress test shows, Pristupljeno:21.7.2022.https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/pr /date/2022/html/ssm.pr220708~565c38d18a.en.html Basel Committee on Banking Supervision - Climate-related risk drivers and their trans mission channels, April 2021, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d517.pdf 114 Vesna Martin, PhD 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks Bolton, P., Després, M., Pereira Da Silva, L. A., Samama, F. and Svartzman, R. (2020). “Green Swans”: central banks in the age of climate-related risks. Bank for International Settlements and Banque de France, 1-115. Breitenfellner, A., Pointner, W. and Schuberth, H. (2019). The Potential Contribution of Central Banks to Green Finance. German Institute for Economic Research 88(2), 55-71. Campiglio, E., Dafermos, Y., Monnin, P., Ryan-Collins, J., Schotten, G. and Tanaka, M. (2018). Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators. Nature Climate Change 8 (6), 462-468. Carney, M. (2015). Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon – climate change and financial stability, Pristupljeno: 15.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2015/ breaking-the-tragedy-of-the-horizon-climate-change-and-financial-stability. pdf?la=en&hash =7C67E785651862457D99511147C7424FF5EA0C1 CDP - Banque de France joins CDP as world’s first central bank requesting companies to disclose environmental data, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/investor/banque-de-france-joins-worlds-first-central-bank-cdp Chen, C., Dongyang, P. Bleischwitz, R. and Huang, Z. (2020). Engaging Central Banks in Climate Change? The Mix of Monetary and Climate Policy. Munich Personal RePEc,MPRA Paper No. 103750, 1-44. Climate Change Adaptation Report 2021, Climate-related financial risk management and the role of capital requirements, Pristupljeno: 26.7.2022. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/ media/boe/files/prudential-regulation/publication/2021/october/climate-change-adaptation-report-2021.pdf?la=en&hash=FF4A0C618471462E10BC704D4AA58727EC8F8720 Climate Change Centre - Green Finance: the Banque de France launches its Climate Change Centre (CCC) and publishes its 3rd Responsible Investment Report (SRI), Pristupljeno: 22.7.20 22. https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/cp_ra_isr_et_ccc_ engl.pdf Countries, Wake up! What is Being Done against Climate Change?, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/countries-wake-what-being-done-against-cli mate-change Diluiso, F., Annicchiarico, B., Kalkuhl, M. and Minx, J. C. (2022). Climate actions and macro-fi nancial stability: The role of central banks. SUERF Policy Brief No 255, 1-6. ECB – Evropska centralna banka, Climate change and the ECB, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https:// www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/html/index.en.html ECBa – Evropska centralna banka, ECB climate agenda 2022, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https:// www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220704_annex~cb39c2dcbb.en.pdf ECBb – Evropska centralna banka, ECB presents action plan to include climate change con siderations in its monetary policy strategy, Pristupljeno: 21.7.2022. https://www.ecb.europa. eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210708_1~f104919225.en.html González Martínez, C. I. (2021). The role of central banks in combating climate change and developing sustainable finance. Banco de España, Economic Bulletin 3/2021, 1-17. González, C. and Núñez, S. (2021). Markets, financial institutions and central banks in the face of climate change: challenges and opportunities. Banco de España, Documentos Ocasio nales. N.º 2126, 1-77. Grippa, P., Schmittmann, J. and Suntheim, F. (2019). Climate change and financial risk. International Monetary Fund, Finance&Development, 26-29. 115 Vesna Martin, PhD 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. Banking 2022 Kyoto Protocol - What is the Kyoto Protocol?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://unfccc.int/kyo to_protocol Langley, P. and Morris, J. (2020). Central banks: Climate governors of last resort? Economy and Space 52(8), 1471–1479. Masciandaro, D. and Tarsia, R. V. (2021). Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism. Baffi Carefin Centre, Bocconi University, Working paper N. 16 7, 1-33. Moretti, C. L., Mattos, L. M., Calbo, A. G. and Sargent S. A. (2010). Climate changes and potential impacts on postharvest quality of fruit and vegetable crops: A review. Food Research International 43 (7), 1824-1832, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2009.10.013 National Low-Carbon Strategy – SNBC, Pristupljeno: 22.7.2022. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/france/policies/national-low-carbon-strategy-snbc NGFS - Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, Origin and Purpose, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.ngfs.net/en/about-us/governance/origin -and-purpose Olovsson, C. (2018). Is climate change relevant for central banks? Sveriges Riksbank, Economic Commentaries No. 13, 1-8. Oustry, A., Erkan, B., Svartzman, R. and Weber, P. F. (2020). Climate-related Risks and Central Banks’ Collateral Policy: a Methodological Experiment.Banque de France, Working Paper 790, 1-48. Ozili, P.K.(2021). Managing Climate Change Risk: The Policy Options for Central Banks. Munich Personal RePEc, MPRA Paper No. 111217, 1-13. Pariski sporazum - What is the Paris Agreement?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://unfccc.int/ process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement Ramos Muñoz, D., Cabrales, A. and Sanchez, A. (2022). Central banks and climate change: Fit, opportunity and suitability in the law and beyond. European Banking Institute, EBI Working Paper Series No. 119, 1-120. Skinner C., (2021). Central Banks and Climate Change. Vanderbilt Law Review 74 (5), 1301-1364. Tooze, A. (2019). Why central banks need to step upon global warming, Pristupljeno: 15.7.2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/20/why-central-banks-need-to-stepup-on-global-warming/ United Nations - What Is Climate Change?, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://www.un.org/en/ climatechange/what-is-climate-change United Nations Conference on Environment and Development - United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3-14 June 1992, Pristupljeno: 20.7. 2022. https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/rio1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – full text on Climate Change Convention, Pristupljeno: 20.7.2022. https://unfccc.int/resource/ccsites/zimbab/conven/text/ art01.htm Villeroy de Galhau, F. (2019).Climate change: central banks are taking action. Financial Stability Review 23, 7-13. 116