(PDF) Superpower Cooperation in Eastern Europe

The Cold War was a lengthy struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union that began in the aftermath of the surrender of Hitler’s Germany. In 1941, Nazi aggression against the USSR turned the Soviet regime into an ally of the Western democracies. But in the post-war world, increasingly divergent viewpoints created rifts between those who had once been allies. The United States and the USSR gradually built up their own zones of influence, dividing the world into two opposing camps. The Cold War was therefore not exclusively a struggle between the US and the USSR but a global conflict that affected many countries, particularly the continent of Europe. Indeed, Europe, divided into two blocs, became one of the main theatres of the war. In Western Europe, the European integration process began with the support of the United States, while the countries of Eastern Europe became satellites of the USSR. From 1947 onwards, the two adversaries, employing all the resources at their disposal for intimidation and subversion, clashed in a lengthy strategic and ideological conflict punctuated by crises of varying intensity. Although the two Great Powers never fought directly, they pushed the world to the brink of nuclear war on several occasions. Nuclear deterrence was the only effective means of preventing a military confrontation. Ironically, this ‘balance of terror’ actually served as a stimulus for the arms race. Periods of tension alternated between moments of détente or improved relations between the two camps. Political expert Raymond Aron perfectly defined the Cold War system with a phrase that hits the nail on the head: ‘impossible peace, improbable war’. The Cold War finally came to an end in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Communist regimes in Eastern Europe.

To present a study about the United Nations (UN) role in the New World Order is difficult, giving that the Organization is in the process of redefining its role, and that the international system is still dealing with the consequences of some dramatic structural transformations. Yet it is necessary to identify the new UN role within the prevailing international system. The international organization always has reflected, and continues to reflect, the realities of the international political order. Understanding the new form of the UN role requires an analysis of what the New World Order characteristics are. However, the fact remains that at this point in time the international system still transforming and evolving, and the consequences of such depend on the unfolding of conflicting trends.

Abstract The problem with traditional explanations of relations between states is that they focus on matters of interests and pay insufficient attention to matters of identities. This article seeks to improve on this situation by providing a formal discussion of the role of recognition. World politics is best described as a recognition game rather than as a prisoner's dilemma. To prove the applicability of this argument, an analysis is made of the relations that obtained between Soviet Russia and the West.

ACDIS KAN:8. 1990 OCCPAP ACDIS Library Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security < University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ‘ Occasionai Œapcr 607 South Mathews Street , Urbana IL 61801 217/333-7086 Superpower Cooperation in Eastern Europe R oger K an et Professor of Political Science University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Ju n e 1990 R o g e r E K a n e t is a sso c ia te v ic e c h a n c e llo r fo r a c a d e m ic a ffa irs a n d d ir e c to r o f In te r n a t io n a l P r o g r a m s a n d S tu d ie s a t th e U n iv e rsity o f Illin o is a t U rb a n a -C h a m p a ig n H e re ce iv e d a P h D fro m P rin c e to n U n iv e r sity in 1 9 6 6 , ta u g h t a t th e U n iv e r s ity o f K a n sa s a n d w a s a se n io r fe llo w a t C o lu m b ia U n iv e r sity b e fo re jo in in g th e fa c u lty o f th e U n iv e r sity o f Illin o is in 19 7 3 S in c e 1 9 78 h e h a s b e e n a p ro fe sso r o f p o litic a l s c ie n c e a n d s e rv e d as h ea d o f th e d e p a rtm en t fro m 1984 to 1987, h e is a lso a m e m b e r o f th e R u s sia n an d E a st E u ro p e a n C e n te r a n d th e P ro g ra m m A rm s C o n tr o l, D is a r m a m e n t, a n d In te r n a tio n a l S e c u r ity K an et has w o n a n u m b e r o f te a c h in g a w a rd s, in c lu d in g b o th th e C a m p u s a n d L A S a w a r d s fo r u n d e r g r a d u a te te a c h in g in 1 9 8 1 , th e D e p a r t m e n t o f P o lit ic a l S c ie n c e a w a r d m 1 9 8 4 , a n d th e B u r lin g to n N o rth e rn F o u n d a tio n A w a r d fo r F a c u lty E x c e lle n c e in 1 9 8 9 H is r e s e a r c h a n d p u b lic a tio n s h a v e fo c u s e d o n th e fo r e ig n a n d s e c u r ity p o lic ie s o f th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d E a s te rn E u ro p e H e h a s a u th o r e d m o re th a n o n e h u n d r e d s c h o la r ly a rticles a n d e d ite d a d o z en b o o k s, th e m o st re c e n t o f w h ich h a v e b een T h e S o v ie t U n io n , E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d t h e T h ir d W o r ld (C a m b r id g e , 1 9 8 7 ), T h e L i m i t s o f S o v i e t P o w e r i n t h e D e v e l o p i n g W o r ld T h e r m i d o r i n t h e R e v o l u t i o n a r y S t r u g g l e ( M a c m illa n , L o n d o n , a n d Jo h n s H o p k in s U n iv e r sity P re ss, 1 9 8 9 , w ith E A K o lo d z ie j) a n d T h e C o l d W a r a s C o o p e r a t i o n S u perpow er C o o p e r a tio n in R e g io n a l C o n flic t M an ag em en t (in p r e s s , M a c m illa n , L o n d o n , w ith E A K o lo d z ie j) Superpower Cooperation in Eastern Europe R o g er E K a n e t P ro fe sso r o f P o litica l S cien c e U n iv e r sity o f Illin o is at U rb a n a -C h a m p a ig n T h is p a p er is sch e d u led to a p p ea r in R o g er E K a n e t an d E d w a rd A K o lo d z iej, e d s , T h e C o ld W a r a s C o o p e r a tio n S u p e r p o w e r C o o p e r a tio n in R e g io n a l C o n f l i c t M a n a g e m e n t (L o n d o n M a c m illa n P re ss, fo rth c o m in g ) T h e o rig in a l v ersio n o f th e p a p er w a s p re se n te d a t a W o rk sh o p h e ld a t th e U n iv e r sity o f Illin o is a t U rb a n a -C h a m p a ig n o n 4 -6 M a y 1989 T h e W o rk sh o p w a s sp o n so re d b y th e P ro g ra m m A rm s C o n tro l, D isa rm a m e n t a n d In te rn a tio n a l S e c u rity o f th e U n iv e r sity o f Illin o is, th e M id w e st C o n so rtiu m fo r In te rn a tio n a l S e c u rity S tu d ie s, a n d th e N a tio n a l D e fe n se U m v e r sity Ju n e 1990 A c k n o w le d g e m e n ts T h e a u th o r a p p r e c ia tio n se v e ra l d ra fts A K o lo d z ie j p re c isio n an d w is h e s to e x p r e s s h is s in c e r e fo r th e c r itic a l c o m m e n ts m a d e o n o f th e p a p er b y h is c o lle a g u e E d w a rd T h e y h av e a d d ed s ig n ific a n tly to th e c la rity o f th e a rg u m e n t D u rin g th e p e rio d o f ra p id d ete rio ra tio n o f re la tio n s a m o n g th e W o rld W a r II a llies in th e y e a rs im m e d ia te ly a fte r th e w a r, th e p o ssib ility o f m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n b e tw e e n th e U n ite d S ta te s (U S) an d th e U n io n o f S o v ie t S o c ia list R e p u b lics (U SSR ) m E u ro p e see m ed e x tre m e ly h ig h In fa c t, th e c o n flic t m in te rests an d p o licies in E a ste rn E u ro p e b e tw e e n th e tw o e m e rg in g su p e rp o w e rs re su lte d m th e C o ld W a r T h e e x te n sio n , la rg e ly th ro u g h c o ercio n , o f S o v iet-sty le p o litic a l sy ste m s d ire c tly d o m in a te d b y th e U S S R , w a s v ie w e d b y A m e rica n lea d e rs as b u t a p re lu d e to S o v ie t e ffo rts to ex ten d th e ir c o n tro l o v e r W e ste rn E u ro p e B y 1 948, w ith th e c o u p th a t im p o se d a c o m m u n ist re g im e in C z e c h o slo v a k ia , a ro u g h lin e fro m N o rth to S o u th d iv id ed th e e m e rg in g S o v ie t- an d U S -o rie n te d p o litic a l-m ilita ry b lo c s in E u ro p e , th e S o v ie ts h ad c lo sed all su rfa c e a c cess to W e st B e rlin , a n d lo u d an d in flu e n tia l v o ic e s in th e U n ite d S ta te s w e re c a llin g fo r d ra m a tic m ilita ry re a rm a m e n t to m e e t th e m e n a c e o f S o v ie t im p e ria lism in E u ro p e U S le a d e rs h ad a lrea d y d eterm in e d th a t th e fu tu re o f E u ro p e w as o f v ita l c o n c e rn to lo n g -te rm U S in te rests T h ro u g h b o th th e T r u m a n D o ctrin e e n u n c ia te d in M a rch 1 9 4 7 an d th e M a rsh a ll P la n o f Ju n e 1 9 4 7 th e U S p o litic a l le a d e rs c o m m itte d th e n a tio n to ste m m in g w h a t w a s v ie w e d as th e c h a llen g e to E u ro p e a n , a n d U S , in te re sts e m a n a tin g fro m M o sc o w T h e e s ta b lish m e n t o f th e N o rth A tla n tic T re a ty O rg a n iz a tio n (N A T O ) in 1 9 49, th o u g h it d id n o t y e t b r in g w ith it sig n ific a n t c h a n g e s in th e a c tu a l m ilita ry situ a tio n , re p re se n te d th e c u lm in a tio n o f th e p ro ce ss o f re o rie n ta tio n o f tra d itio n a l U S iso la tio n ist p o lic y v is-à -v is E u ro p e , to w a rd a p o licy o f c o m m itm e n t an d in v o lv e m e n t M o st W e ste rn a n a ly sts w o u ld a g ree th a t th e c o n flic t b e tw e e n th e U n ite d S ta te s a n d th e S o v ie t U n io n o v er c o m p e tin g in te re sts a n d o b je c tiv e s m E a st-C e n tra l E u ro p e m th e late 19 4 0 s resu lted m a h ig h e r p ro b a b ility o f d ire c t m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n b e tw e e n th e tw o c o u n trie s th an a t a n y o th e r tim e in th e e n su in g fo u r d e ca d es, w ith th e e x ce p tio n o f th e C u b a n M issile C risis o f 1962 T o d a y , h o w e v e r, a m o n g th e v a rio u s re g io n s o f th e w o rld it is p re c ise ly in E u ro p e th a t th e o u tb rea k o f m ilita ry h o stilitie s a n d a d ire ct m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n b e tw e e n th e tw o su p e rp o w e rs is le a st lik e ly T h e p u rp o se o f th e p re se n t e ssa y w ill b e to e x a m in e th o se fa c to rs w h ich re su lte d in th e e sta b lish m e n t m E u ro p e , a lre ad y b y th e late 1 9 5 0 s, o f a se cu rity re g im e c o n sistin g o f tw o p o litic a l-m ilita ry b lo cs B o th sid e s a c ce p te d th is re g im e a n d m e re ly re d u c e d th e lik e lih o o d o f m ilita ry c o n flic t, d esp ite (a rg u ab ly b e c a u se o f) th e p h y sic al p re se n c e o f th e la rg e st m ilita ry sto c k p iles o f c o n v e n tio n a l a n d n u c le a r w e a p o n s e v e r a sse m b led in o n e a rea A lth o u g h m u ch rh e to r ic a l p o stu r in g a n d p e rio d ic in cre a se s m p o litic a l te n sio n s h a v e o c cu rre d , th is se c u rity reg im e b r o u g h t p e ac e a n d su b sta n tia l p o litic a l sta b ility to E u ro p e o v e r th e p a st fo rty y ears E v e n p rio r to th e re c e n t "o u tb re a k o f p e a c e " , th e th re a t o f w a r n o lo n g e r p la y ed th e ro le o f a p o litic a l in stru m e n t in E u ro p e , as it h a d in th e p a st T h e e sse n tia l e le m e n ts m d isp u te b e tw e e n th e 2 tw o b lo c s h a v e co n c ern e d th e v ery e x iste n c e an d n a tu re o f th e se c u rity sy stem , n o t, p rim a rily , issu es o f te rrito ry o r re so u rce s U n til th e re v o lu tio n a ry d ev elo p m en ts o f late 1 989, all w e re se em in g ly a g re ed th a t an y e ffo rt to u n d e rm in e o r d ism a n tle th a t sy ste m co u ld re su lt in a c o n fro n ta tio n d isa stro u s fo r all c o n c e r n e d 1 T o p u t th e issu e o f th e "c o o p e ra tiv e " a sp e c t o f su p e rp o w e r re la tio n s in E u ro p e w ith in th e th e o re tica l fra m e w o rk o f th is stu d y , it is c ru cial to n o te th e e sse n tia lly c o n flic tu a l n a tu re o f U S -S o v ie t in te re sts in E u ro p e A s w ill b e d ev e lo p e d m m o re d eta il b e lo w , th e p o licy p re fe ren c e s o f th e tw o su p e rp o w e rs fo r E u ro p e as a w h o le an d fo r its tw o p a rts h a v e b e e n a lm o st d ia m e tric a lly o p p o se d Y e t, sin ce a t le a st th e 1 950s, e a ch sid e h a s reco g n iz e d th e d an g e rs in h e re n t in a p u rsu it o f its o b je ctiv e s in E u ro p e th a t w o u ld d ire ctly c h a lle n g e th e p o sitio n o f th e o th e r sid e W h a t e v o lv e d w a s a sy ste m th a t in clu d e d p a rtia l c o n v erg e n c e o f in terests an d o b jec tiv es o f lim ite d sco p e T h o u g h so m e c o o p e ra tiv e a rra n g em e n ts th a t c o n trib u te to th e sta b ility o f th e E u ro p e a n se cu rity reg im e are e x p lic it an d th e re su lt o f o v e rt b a rg a in in g (as m th e a g re e m e n ts c o n c ern in g A u stria in 1955 an d in th e 1971 a g re e m e n ts o v e r th e sta tu s o f B e rlin ), o th e rs are tac it in n atu re an d are b a se d o n p a rallel a c tio n s o r ev e n n o n -a c tio n s o f th e su p e rp o w e rs M o st re ce n tly th e u n ila tera l sta te m e n ts c o n c e rn in g th e re d u c tio n o f m ilita ry c o m m itm e n ts in C e n tra l E u ro p e an d th e o n g o in g n e g o tia tio n s o n c o n v en tio n a l fo rce s in E u ro p e g iv e p ro m ise o f p o ssib le m a jo r b re a k th ro u g h s in su p e rp o w e r c o o p e ra tio n in re d u c in g th e lik e lih o o d o f th e ir c o m in g in to c o n flic t m th e a rea T h e p r e s e n t e ssa y fo c u se s o n th e c o m p e titiv e -c o o p e ra tiv e re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e su p erp o w e rs in E aste rn E u ro p e an d is d iv id e d in to fo u r m a jo r se c tio n s T h e fir st e x a m in e s th e n atu re o f th e in te rests o f b o th th e S o v ie t U n io n an d th e U n ite d S tate s m E aste rn E u ro p e T h e sec o n d p a rt trac es th e e v o lu tio n o f th e E a ste rn E u ro p e an se c u rity re g im e S p e c ia l a tte n tio n is g iv e n to th e e v id e n c e o f su p e rp o w e r "c o o p e r a tiv e " a rra n g e m e n ts as th e y e v o lv ed o v e r th e c o u rse o f th e p a st fo rty y ea rs T h e th ird p a rt o f th e p a p e r d e lin e ates th e sp e c ific n a tu re o f th e E u ro p e an se cu rity sy ste m an d th e ru les o f b e h a v io r (o r o p e ra tio n a l c o d e ") th a t em e rg e d d u rin g th a t p erio d T h e d isc u ssio n re sp o n d s to th e q u estio n , to w h a t e x te n t h a s "c o o p e r a tio n " b e c o m e a n o p e r a tiv e e le m e n t in S o v ie t-A m e n c a n re la tio n s as th e y re la te to E a ste rn E u ro p e T h e fin a l se ctio n o f th e e ssa y o u tlin e s th e rea so n s fo r th e re ce n t re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s in E astern E u ro p e a n d th e p ro sp e c ts fo r th e e x p a n sio n a n d stre n g th e n in g o f su p e rp o w e r c o o p e ra tio n c o n c e rn in g E a ste rn E u ro p e S u p e rp o w e r In te re sts m E a ste rn E u ro p e T h e y e a rs im m ed ia te ly a fte r W o rld W a r n w itn e sse d a d ra m a tic c o lla p se o f re la tio n s a m o n g th e w a rtim e a llie s, as th e S o v ie t U n io n p ro c ee d e d to e s ta b lish p o litic a l d ep e n d en cies m th e a rea s u n d er its m ilita ry c o n tro l m e ast- 3 c e n tra l E u ro p e O th er a u th o rs h a v e p ro v id e d e x te n siv e d o c u m e n ta tio n o f th e p ro ce ss w h ich re su lte d , b y 1948, m S ta lin s su c c e ssfu lly se a lin g o ff th e a rea fro m b o th th e m ilita ry p o w e r an d th e e ffe c tiv e p o litic a l in flu e n c e o f th e W e st a n d c re a tin g th e fo u n d a tio n s fo r c o m m u n ist ru le an d S o v ie t d o m in a n c e 2 W h a t is im p o rta n t h ere is an u n d e rsta n d in g o f th e k e y o b je ctiv e s o f th e S o v ie t le a d e rsh ip in th e la te 19 4 0 s an d o f th e w a y s in w h ich th e se o b je c tiv e s w ere a t o d d s w ith U S g o a ls In o th er w o rd s, w h a t ro le d id E a ste rn E u ro p e p la y in th e o rig in s o f th e C o ld W a r a n d su p e rp o w e r g lo b al c o n f lic t7 S o v ie t p o lic y o b je c tiv e s in E aste rn E u ro p e e m e rg e d o n ly g ra d u a lly d u rin g th e th e w a r E v e n in th e im m ed ia te p o stw a r p e rio d S ta lin s v iew s c o n c e rn in g th e n atu re o f a fu tu re E aste rn E u ro p e h ad n o t c o a le sce d c o m p le te ly 3 A s S ta lin sen sed th e in a b ility o r u n w illin g n e ss o f th e U n ite d S ta te s an d G re a t B rita in to o p p o se, e ffe ctiv e ly , h is in itia tiv e s in th e re g io n , h e p u sh e d to in co rp o ra te E astern E u ro p e in to th e S o v ie t e m p ire T h e c h a rg e s o f re v is io n ist h isto ria n s n o tw ith sta n d in g , it is im p o rta n t to n o te th a t th e e v id e n c e in d ic a te s o n ly m in im a l U S e ffo rts, b ey o n d d ip lo m a tic c o m p la in ts, to in te rv e n e m E a ste rn E u ro p e to in flu e n c e p o litica l d e v e lo p m e n ts A s th e S o v ie ts a n d th e ir E a ste rn E u ro p e a n c o m m u n ist c lie n ts im p riso n e d o r e x e cu ted n o n -c o m m u n ist p o litica l le a d ers, th e U n ite d S ta te s sto o d b y , se e m in g ly p a ra ly z e d In fact, d ip lo m a ts sta tio n ed in th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n c a p ita ls w e re re g u la rly in stru cte d to a v o id c o n fro n ta tio n w ith S o v ie t o ffic ia ls In R o m a n ia in 1 9 4 4-45 , fo r e x a m p le , U S re p re se n ta tiv e s w ere p re c lu d ed fro m m e e tin g w ith lo ca l p o litic ia n s, le st th is m ig h t re su lt in c o n flic t w ith th e S o v ie ts 4 B y 19 4 8 S ta lin s o b je ctiv e s m E aste rn E u ro p e h ad b e en c la rifie d an d im p le m en ted T h e y se t th e fra m e w o rk fo r S o v ie t p o lic y in th e re g io n fo r th e n e x t fo u r d ec a d es d u rin g w h ich th e S o v ie t le a d ersh ip tre a te d E a ste rn E u ro p e la rg e ly as a n e x te n sio n o f th e S o v ie t d o m e stic sy ste m — as a v irtu a l fiefd o m u n d e r S ta lin o r a s a ju n io r p a rtn e r d u rin g th e B re z h n e v y e a rs 5 B rie fly , th e S o v ie ts v ie w e d E a ste rn E u ro p e fro m se v e ra l, n o t n e c e s sa rily m u tu a lly c o m p a tib le , p e rsp e ctiv e s A s a d e fe n s iv e b u lw a r k In th is se n se E a ste rn E u ro p e se rv e d a s a b u ffe r z o n e a g a in st p o ssib le a ttack fro m th e W e st, as a z o n e o f fo rw a rd d e p lo y m e n t o f S o v ie t fo rc es, an d as a c o n trib u to r to th e o v e ra ll d efen se e ffo rt o f th e re g io n In th e id e o lo g ic a l re a lm , E aste rn E u ro p e w a s a lso see n as a b u lw a rk a g a in st th e in c u rsio n o f W e ste rn lib e ra lism in to th e U S S R In fa ct, c h a n g e s in th e n atu re o f w a rfa re sin c e th e 1940s h av e re d u c e d th e m ilita ry se c u rity v a lu e o f th e re g io n , an d E a ste rn E u ro p e h a s a cted m o re as a c o n d u it o f W e ste rn id e as th a n as a b a rrie r o r filte r, e v e n p rio r to re c e n t p o litic a l d e v e lo p m e n ts 4 T h is sp rin g b o a rd c o n c e p tio n , th e re cip ro ca l o f th e first fa cto r, h ad th ree m a jo r asp ects A s a b a sts f o r a n o ffe n s iv e s tr a te g y Id e o lo g ic al E a stern E u ro p e w as v iew ed as th e a d v a n ce g u ard o f th e w o rld c o m m u n ist m o v e m e n t a n d , a lo n g w ith th e U S S R its e lf, th e sp e a rh e a d o f th e g lo b a l c o m m u n ist re v o lu tio n P o litica l E a stern E u ro p e h as serv ed a s a b ase fo r p o lic y in itia tiv e s, e g p ea c e c a m p aig n s d e sig n e d to in flu e n c e W e ste rn E u ro p e an d sp lit th e c o n tm e n t fro m th e U m te d S ta te s D u rin g th e 1 9 7 0 s se v e ra l E a st E u ro p e a n sta te s a lso b e ca m e im p o rta n t p a rtn e rs o f th e U S S R in th e p u rsu it o f g lo b a l o b jec tiv es, e sp e cia lly in th e T h ird W o rld M ilitary E astern E u ro p e serv ed as a fo rw a rd b a se fo r p o ssib le m ilita ry in itia tiv es ta k en a g a in st th e W e st, th is lo g istic a l c o n trib u tio n w a s e s p e c ia lly im p o rta n t fo r b o th th e G e rm a n D em o cra tic R e p u b lic (G D R ) an d P o la n d As th e n u c le u s o f an in te r n a tio n a l b lo c o f su pport in w o r ld p o lit ic s T h o u g h th is E a ste rn E u ro p e a n ro le h as b e e n im p o rta n t e v e r sin c e S ta lin , it w as e sp ec ia lly e m p h asiz ed d u rin g th e 1 9 7 0 s, w h e n th e S o v ie ts sp o k e e n th u sia stic a lly o f th e c h a n g in g in te rn a tio n a l c o rre la tio n o f fo rc e s a n d th e im p o rta n t role o f o th e r so cia list sta tes in w o rld a ffa irs T h o u g h th ere h a v e b e e n c h a n g e s o v e r tim e S o v ie t lea d e rs h av e se e m in g ly b e e n c o n v in c e d th a t th e e x iste n c e o f a b lo c o f sta te s m o d e lle d a fter th e U S S R a n d p u b lic ly p u rsu in g sim ila r p o licies is e sse n tia l to th e p o litic a l le g itim a c y o f th e S o v ie t sy ste m A s a sou rce o f id e o lo g ic a l a n d p o litic a l le g itim iz a tio n A s a n e c o n o m ic a s s e t In itia lly , th ro u g h re p a ra tio n s a n d o th e r e x p lo ita tiv e a rran g em e n ts, E a ste rn E u ro p e serv ed as a so u rc e o f c ap ita l an d te c h n o lo g y fo r th e U S S R T h ro u g h o u t th e 1950s an d 1960s b a rter a rra n g e m e n ts b r o u g h t E a ste rn E u ro p e a n in d u stria l a n d c o n su m e r g o o d s to th e U S S R in re tu rn fo r ra w m a te ria ls M o re re c e n tly , h o w e v e r, th e e c o n o m ic b e n e fit o f E aste rn E u ro p e fo r th e S o v ie ts h a s b ec o m e q u e stio n a b le , e c o n o m ic re la tio n s w ith m o st c o u n tries h av e re su lted in a n e t tra n sfe r o f S o v ie t re so u rce s T h e re la tiv e im p o rta n c e o f th e se fac to rs h a s c h a n g e d o v e r th e c o u rse o f th e p a s t fo rty y e ars U ltim a te ly , w h a t th e S o v ie t le a d e rsh ip h a s so u g h t in E aste rn E u ro p e u n til v e ry rec en tly w as a b lo c o f p ro sp e ro u s, sin g le -p a rty sta te s o rg a n ic a lly tied to th e U S S R m su c h a w a y as to b e fu lly su p p o rtiv e o f all S o v ie t p o licy in itia tiv es T h e k e y p ro b le m faced b y th o se le a d e rs in a c h iev in g th is o b je c tiv e h a s re su lte d fro m th e b a sic ten sio n o r in c o m p a tib ility b e tw e e n tw o e sse n tia l e le m e n ts o f th a t v isio n — th e v ia b ility o f E a ste rn E u ro p e a n 5 re g im e s an d th e c o h e sio n o f th e S o v ie t-c e n te re d E u ro p e a n c o m m u n ist sy ste m V irtu a lly all o f th e p o litic a l crises in E a ste rn E u ro p e o v e r th e p a st fo rty y e a rs— in c lu d in g th e c u rre n t o n e th a t is le a d in g to th e d em ise o f c o m m u n ist sy stem s— re su lte d p re c ise ly fro m th is ten sio n In so fa r as E a st E u ro p e a n le a d e rs p u rsu e d p o lic ie s c o n so n a n t w ith S o v ie t in te re sts, th e y g e n e ra lly d id n o t resp o n d to p o p u la r d em a n d s fo r n a tio n a l id en tity , e x p a n d e d p o litica l p a rtic ip a tio n , an d im p ro v e d sta n d a rd s o f liv in g , as in th e G D R a n d H u n g a ry m th e 1 95 0 s O n th e o th e r h a n d , w h en lea d e rs re sp o n d e d to th e p o p u la r w ill in a n e ffo rt to g e n e ra te g re a te r d o m e stic le g itim a c y an d v ia b ility , th e y fo u n d th em se lv e s in c o n flic t w ith th e S o v ie t c o n ce rn a b o u t b lo c u n ity an d a d h e re n c e to th e tra d itio n a l S o v ie t c o n c e p tio n o f so c ia lis t in te r n a tio n a lis m — e g , in C z e c h o slo v a k ia m 1 9 68 , an d P o lan d m 1956 a n d a g a in in 1980-81 F o r th e S o v ie t le a d e rsh ip fro m S ta lin to C h e rn e n k o , th e u ltim a te to u c h sto n e m e v a lu a tin g its re la tio n s w ith E a ste rn E u ro p e w a s M o sco w s a b ility to d o m in a te th e a rea an d to co n tro l k e y d ev e lo p m e n ts It w a s p re c ise ly th is a sp e c t o f S o v ie t p o licy , a lo n g w ith th e ro le th a t th e re g io n p la y ed in th e m ilita ry b a la n c e , th a t b r o u g h t it in to c o n flic t w ith th e U n ite d S ta te s It is a b it m o re d iffic u lt to o u tlin e th e m a jo r in te re sts o f th e U m ted S ta te s m E a ste rn E u ro p e m th e p o stw a r e ra , sin c e th e y h a v e n e v e r b e e n so c le a rly d ev e lo p e d F o r th e m o st p a rt th ese in te re sts w e re in itia lly d e fin e d p rim a r ily m te rm s o f th e e m e rg in g c o n flic t w ith th e S o v ie t U n io n m th e re g io n M o re o v er, o v er th e co u rse o f th e p a st fo rty y e a rs th e U S re sp o n se to S o v ie t d o m in a tio n o f E a ste rn E u ro p e h as v a rie d , d e p e n d in g u p o n th e n a tu re o f U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s a t a n y g iv e n tim e D u rin g th e g e n e ra lly ra re p e rio d s o f d ete n te m su p e rp o w e r re la tio n s, th e U n ite d S ta te s h a s te n d e d to a c c e p t— at le a st n o t d ire c tly c h a llen g e — th e S o v ie t sp h e re o f in flu e n c e m th e re g io n A t tim e s o f h e ig h ten e d te n sio n , h o w e v e r, U S p o lic y h as ten d ed to tre a t th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n s as m e re e x te n sio n s o f th e U S S R , fit to su ffe r th e p e n a lties in h e re n t m tra d e re stric tio n s an d c o e rc iv e p o licie s Y e t, th ro u g h o u t m o st o f th e p a st fo rty y e a rs, b e g in n in g w ith th e S o v iet-Y u g o sla v sp lit, th e g e n e ra l o b je ctiv e o f U S p o lic y in E a stern E u ro p e h a s b e e n to stim u la te a n d su p p o rt d iv e rsity a n d p o litic a l a u to n o m y w ith in th e S o v ie t b lo c , to im p le m e n t a p o lic y th a t m ig h t b e te rm e d re v e rse F in la n d iz a tio n A s S a ra h T e r ry h as p u t th e issu e " in th e p e rio d s o f 'c o m p e titiv e c o e x iste n c e ' th a t h av e d o m in a te d th e p o st-S ta lm e ra , W a sh in g to n h as so u g h t to e n c o u ra g e b o th d o m e stic lib e ra liz a tio n w ith in th e v a rio u s E a st E u ro p e a n c o u n trie s an d g r e a te r fo re ig n p o lic y 'd iffe re n tia tio n ' " 6 A lre a d y a t th e h e ig h t o f th e c o ld w a r in 1 9 49, th e N a tio n a l S e cu rity C o u n c il a d v ised P re sid e n t T ru m a n th a t th e m o st re a listic o b je c tiv e fo r th e U n ite d S ta te s w a s to e n c o u ra g e th e cre atio n o f reg im e s in th e re g io n th a t w e re fre e o f S o v ie t d o m in a tio n , ra th e r th an p ro -W e ste rn R h e to ric d u rin g th e 19 5 2 p re sid e n tia l c a m p a ig n c o n c e rn in g th e im m o ra lity o f c o n ta in m e n t an d 6 th e n ee d to 'ro ll b a c k th e Iro n C u rta in in E aste rn E u ro p e n o tw ith sta n d in g , U S p o lic y d u rin g th e E ise n h o w e r a d m in istra tio n p u rsu e d m u ch m o re m o d e st o b je ctiv e s d iv e rsity w ith in th e S o v ie t b lo c ra th e r th a n lib e ra tio n an d lib era liz a tio n in d o m e stic p o litic s ra th er th an fu ll-sc a le d e m o c ra cy 7 In e ffect, it w as in th e 1950s th a t th e fo u n d a tio n s fo r fu tu re U S p o lic y in E a ste rn E u ro p e w e re firm ly e sta b lish e d U S o b je ctiv e s w ere lim ite d to m o d e st su p p o rt fo r m a rg in a l c h a n g e m th e re g io n , fo r th e y w e re b ased o n th e re a liz a tio n th a t th e U S S R v ie w e d th e reg io n as a v ita l c o n c ern an d th a t th e U n ite d S ta te s w a s n o t in a p o sitio n to p ro v id e a c tiv e su p p o rt fo r th o se w h o w a n ted m a jo r ch a n g e — u n less it w a s p re p a red to fa ce a m a jo r m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n w ith th e S o v ie t U n io n A lth o u g h th e re h as b e e n e sse n tia l c o n tin u ity in th e p u r su it o f lim ite d g o a ls b y W a sh in g to n sin c e th e T ru m a n a d m in istra tio n , lo n g -te rm o b je c tiv e s are o fte n e x p re sse d in m a x im a l te rm s T h is re su lts in p e rio d ic in c o m p a tib ility b e tw e e n sta te d p rin c ip le s an d th e re a lity o f U S p o licy N e v er w a s th a t c o n tra d ictio n m o re c le a r th a n a t th e tim e o f th e H u n g a ria n R e v o lu tio n in 1956 T h e rh e to ric o f th e 1952 p re sid e n tia l ca m p aig n a n d th e p ro p a g a n d a lin e s o f R a d io F ree E u ro p e led m an y m H u n g a ry to e x p e c t U S su p p o rt, y e t, th e stra te g ic an d g e o p o litica l re a litie s o f e a st-ce n tra l E u ro p e m e a n t th a t U S su p p o rt fo r th e H u n g a ria n s w a s lim ite d to p u b lic rh e to ric an d re se ttle m e n t a ssista n ce O v e r th e p a st fo u r d eca d es U S in terests m E a stern E u ro p e , th o u g h rea l an d s ig n ific a n t h a v e b ee n la rg e ly d eriv ativ e an d se c o n d a ry T h e p rim a ry o b je ctiv e m U S p o licy , reg a rd le ss o f reg io n o f th e w o rld , h as b ee n th e lim ita tio n o f th e risk o f n u c lea r c o n fro n ta tio n w ith th e S o v ie t U n io n A n o th e r p o lic y o b je ctiv e o f g re a t im p o rta n c e h a s b e e n c o n ta in m e n t o f S o v ie t c o n tro l an d in flu e n c e in E u ro p e a n d e lsew h e re m th e w o rld W ith in E u ro p e th e U n ite d S ta te s h as b e e n c o m m itte d to m a in ta in in g th e u n ity o f th e W e ste rn a llia n c e sy ste m as a k ey e le m e n t in c o n ta in in g S o v ie t e x p a n sio n ism It is w ith in th e c o n te x t o f th ese p o lic y o b jec tiv es th a t U S in te re sts in E aste rn E u ro p e m u st b e u n d ersto o d In so fa r as E aste rn E u ro p e w a s p erc eiv e d as a su p p o rte r o f an d a d ju n c t to S o v ie t e x p a n sio m st te n d en c ie s, U S p o lic y to w a rd th e re g io n d iffere d little fro m th a t to w a rd th e U S S R itse lf H o w e v e r, E aste rn E u ro p e w a s a lso v iew ed a s a w ea k lin k in th e d e fe n se c h a in o f th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d , th u s, a p o te n tia l ta rg e t o f U S in itia tiv es H o w e v e r, g iv en th e le v e l o f S o v ie t c o n c e rn a b o u t an d c o m m itm e n t to th e m a in te n a n c e o f its d o m in a n t p o sitio n in th e re g io n , th e U S w a s fo rce d to p u rsu e a p o lic y o f "p e a c e fu l e n g a g e m e n t," to u se th e te rm c o in ed b y Z b ig n ie w B rz e zin sk i an d W illia m G r iffith 8 T h is p o lic y m e a n t th a t riv a lry w ith th e U S S R in E a ste rn E u ro p e w o u ld c o n tin u e, b u t w ith in c irc u m sc rib e d b o u n d a rie s a n d b y lim ite d m e a n s A s w ill b e d iscu sse d fu rth er b e lo w , th e re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s th a t h av e a ffecte d E astern E u ro p e sin c e 19 8 9 h av e resu lte d in a n e w rela tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e su p erp o w e rs, w h ich d iv e rg e s fro m p a st p a ttern s 7 E a ste rn E u ro p e an d th e E m e rg e n c e o f a N e w E u ro p e a n S e c u rity R e g im e A fte r th is b r ie f e x a m in a tio n o f th e in terests o f th e tw o su p e rp o w e rs in E a ste rn E u ro p e , w e tu rn to a su rv e y o f m a jo r e le m e n ts o f su p e rp o w e r p o lic y m re la tio n sh ip to E a ste rn E u ro p e S p e c ific a lly , w e sh a ll e x a m in e th o se a sp e cts o f p o lic y th a t c an b e term e d "c o o p e r a tiv e an d th a t c o n trib u te d to th e e m e rg en ce o f th e sta b le E u ro p e a n se c u rity re g im e w h ich c h a ra cte riz e d in te rsta te re la tio n s a fte r th e late 1950s N o w h e re w as th e c o n flict b e tw e e n th e U n ite d S ta te s a n d th e S o v ie t U n io n m o re p ro n o u n c e d in th e y e ars fro m 1945 u n til 1 9 5 0 th a n in C e n tra l E u ro p e B y 1 9 4 7 , th e T ru m a n a d m in istra tio n c o n clu d e d th a t little h o p e e x iste d o f c o o p e ra tio n w ith th e S o v ie ts to so lv e k ey issu es su c h as "th e G e rm a n q u e stio n ," th e civ il w a r in G re ec e, an d c o n c ern s a b o u t d e m o c ra cy in th e E a st E u ro p e a n sta te s T h e T ru m a n D o ctrin e o f 1 9 4 7 se rv e d as th e fo u n d a tio n fo r a n ew U S p o lic y o f c o n ta in in g S o v ie t e x p a n sio n an d in flu e n c e , w h ile th e M a rsh a ll P la n p ro m ised th e e c o n o m ic re h a b ilita tio n o f E u ro p e a n c o u n trie s a sso c ia te d w ith th e U n ite d S ta tes T h e S o v ie ts v ie w e d th is n e w U S p o lic y as a d ire c t an d im m e d ia te c h a llen g e to its p o stw a r p o sitio n in c en tra l E a ste rn E u ro p e A t th e fo u n d in g m e e tin g o f th e C o m m fo rm in S e p tem b er 1 9 4 7 , A n d re i Z h d a n o v , th e se co n d in -c o m m a n d to S ta lin , p ro c la im ed h is ' tw o -c a m p ' th esis an d a sse rte d th a t U S p o lic y w a s c o m m itted to th e e n sla v e m e n t o f E u ro p e an d th e u n le a sh in g o f a n e w w a r a g a in st th e S o v ie t U n io n 9 F ro m th e S o v ie t p e rsp e c tiv e , U S p o lic y p o sed a p o te n tia l c h a llen g e to S o v ie t o b je ctiv e s T h is re q u ire d an a d ju stm e n t o f S o v ie t p o lic ie s , e sp e c ia lly in E a ste rn E u ro p e , w h ere S ta lin a c c e le ra te d th e c o n so lid a tio n o f c o m m u n ist re g im e s, as w e ll as th e e x te n sio n o f S o v ie t c o n tro l o v e r th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n c o m m u n ist p a rtie s T h e re su lt w a s a th re e -p ro n g e d S o v ie t o ffe n siv e in th e y e ars 1 9 4 8 -1 9 5 0 a im e d a t c o n so lid a tin g S o v ie t p o w e r o v e r its n ew e m p ire F irst, th e y a ttem p ted to im p o se u n ifo rm ity o n , an d c o n tro l o v er, th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n re g im es In Y u g o sla v ia th e a tte m p t b a ck fire d , as T ito su c c e ssfu lly re siste d S o v ie t effo rts a n d e sta b lish e d a sy ste m w h ich w o u ld c o n tin u e to c o n fo u n d b o th th e E ast an d th e W e st, as w e sh a ll n o te b elo w E lse w h ere , lo ca l p a rty o ffic ia ls w e re p u rg e d fo r a lleg e d p o litica l d e v ia tio n s an d b y 1 9 50, le a d e rs w ere in p o w e r w h o o w e d th e ir v e ry e x iste n c e to S ta lin T h e se c o n d e le m e n t o f S ta lin s p ro g ra m w a s th e e sta b lish m e n t o f c en tra liz e d id e o lo g ic a l d o m in a n ce o f th e C o m m u n ist P a rty o f th e S o v ie t U n io n (C P S U ) o v e r o th e r c o m m u n ist p a rtie s T h is o b je c tiv e , w h ich w a s c lo se ly re la te d to th e first, w a s a c co m p lish e d th ro u g h th e c rea tio n o f th e C o m m fo rm a n d th e im p o sitio n o n a ll p a rtie s o f th e S o v ie t in te r p re ta tio n o f " s o c ia lis t in te rn a tio n a lism " In e ffe c t, th e in te rests o f th e C P S U a n d th e U S S R 8 a n d th e id e o lo g ica l in te rp re ta tio n s o f th e C P S U w ere d ecla red to b e th e in te re sts a n d in te rp r e ta tio n s o f th e e n tire c o m m u n ist m o v e m e n t T h e th ird a sp e ct o f S ta lin s in itia tiv e w a s h is d e cisio n to te st th e W e st s c o m m itm e n t to th e p o sitio n s th a t it h eld in c en tra l E u ro p e S p e c ific a lly , b e g in n in g o n 2 4 Ju n e 1 948, th e S o v ie ts c lo sed all a c cess to B e rlin re su ltin g in th e fir st m a jo r p o te n tia l m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n b e tw e e n th e su p e rp o w e rs in th e p o stw a r e ra D u rin g th e e n su in g e lev e n m o n th s, u n til th e liftin g o f th e b lo ck a d e o n 5 M a y 1 949, th e lev el o f h o stilitie s b e tw e e n th e tw o su p erp o w e rs w as p ro b a b ly th e h ig h e st d u rin g th e en tire p o stw a r p e rio d [w ith th e e x c ep tio n o f th e C u b an M issile C risis o f 1962] Y e t, d esp ite th e S o v ie t a tte m p t to c o erc e th e W e st in to w ith d ra w in g fro m B e rlin a n d d e sp ite in itia l U S c o n sid e ra tio n o f u sin g m ilita ry p o w e r to fo rce th e ir w ay th ro u g h to B e rlin , th e c risis w as c h a ra c teriz e d b y e ffo rts o n b o th sid e s to m a n ag e th e lev e l o f c o n fr o n ta tio n 10 N e ith e r sid e w a s w illin g to p u sh so far as to m a k e a m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n in ev ita b le F o r e x a m p le , th e W e ste rn d e cisio n to su p p ly W e st B e rlin b y an a irlift an d th e S o v ie t resp o n se n o t d ire ctly to c h a llen g e th a t a irlift re d u c e d th e lik e lih o o d o f d ire c t m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n M o reo v e r, th ro u g h o u t th e crisis re g u la r p o litic a l c o n su lta tio n s an d n e g o tia tio n s a m o n g th e fo u r o c cu p a tio n p o w e rs o c cu rre d , th o u g h u n til sp rin g 1949 th e y m a d e v irtu a lly n o h ea d w a y D e sp ite th e h igh le v e l o f ten sio n a sso c ia te d w ith th e B erlin B lo c k a d e, o n ce th e W e st d e cid ed to sta y an d c h a llen g e th e b lo ck a d e b y an a irlift rath er th an b y d ire c t m ilita ry a c tio n , a sta le m a te e n su ed B e h a v io r o n b o th sid e s w as re g u la riz ed K e y W e ste rn p a rtic ip a n ts m th e e v e n ts, in c lu d in g M a y o r E rn st R e u te r an d G e n era l L u c iu s C la y , w e re c o n v in c ed th a t th e S o v ie ts d id n o t w a n t w a r an d th u s, a v o id e d m e a su re s w h ich th e W e stern a llies w o u ld h a v e re siste d w ith f o r c e 11 In o th e r w o rd s, d e sp ite th e h igh lev e l o f te n sio n , b o th su p erp o w e rs w e re c are fu l to c o n tro l th e ir b e h a v io r m o rd e r to re d u c e th e p ro sp e c ts fo r d ire c t m ilita ry a c tio n M o reo v e r, o n ce th e S o v ie ts rec o g n iz ed th a t th e y w o u ld n o t a c co m p lish th e ir p rim a ry o b je ctiv e o f fo rc in g th e W e st o u t o f B e rlin , th e y w ere w illin g to c u t th e ir lo sse s an d d ro p th e a tte m p t S im u lta n e o u sly w ith th e B e rlin B lo c k a d e, a n o th e r se rie s o f e v e n ts o c c u rred w h ich w o u ld p ro v e to b e im p o rta n t fo r th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f th e p o stw a r se c u rity re g im e in E u ro p e an d fo r th e n a tu re o f U S -S o v ie t c o m p e titio n S ta lin s e ffo rts to im p o se o n Y u g o sla v ia th e ty p e o f d e p e n d en cy re la tio n sh ip th a t h a d b e e n c re ated e lsew h e re in E a ste rn E u ro p e , re su lte d in a m a jo r c o n fro n ta tio n U ltim a te ly , Y u g o sla v ia w a s e x p e lled fro m th e c o m m u n ist c o m m u n ity , w ith th e e x p e c ta tio n th a t p ro -S o v ie t e le m e n ts in Y u g o sla v ia w o u ld se iz e p o w e r an d re p la c e T ito an d h is su p p o rte rs A fte r an in itia l p e rio d o f fo u n d e rin g , T ito fin a lly o p te d to tu rn to th e W e st fo r e c o n o m ic an d m ilita ry su p p o rt T h e re su lt w a s an in d e p e n d e n t c o m m u n ist sta te , h o stile to th e U S S R an d w ith clo se p o litica l, e c o n o m ic, a n d se cu rity ties to th e c a p ita list W e st T h e d ec isio n o f th e T ru m a n a d m in istra tio n to p ro v id e su p p o rt to Y u g o sla v ia in itia ted a p o licy o f d iffe re n tia tio n m w h ich th e U n ite d 9 S ta te s sa w in d e p e n d e n t c o m m u n ist sta te s a s a p o sitiv e a lte rn a tiv e to th o se d o m in a te d b y th e S o v ie t U n io n H o w e v e r, o v e r th e p a st fo u r d eca d es, Y u g o sla v ia h a s re p re sen te d so m e th in g o f a d u a l d ile m m a fo r th e su p e rp o w e rs W h ile th e U n ite d S ta te s su p p o rte d Y u g o sla v ia s su cc essfu l a ttem p t to p u rsu e its fo re ig n a n d se c u rity o b je c tiv e s in d e p e n d e n t o f S o v ie t d o m in a tio n , it re je c te d th e Y u g o sla v m o d e l o f e c o n o m ic a n d p o litic a l o rg a n iz a tio n A t th e sa m e tim e , th e S o v ie ts d id n o t fu lly a c c e p t Y u g o sla v fo re ig n p o lic y a u to n o m y an d fo u n d th e Y u g o sla v c la im to r e p r e s e n t a n a lte rn a tiv e e c o n o m ic a n d p o litic a l m o d e l o f c o m m u n ism an irrita n t O v e r th e p a st fo rty y ea rs, th e sp e cific s o f Y u g o sla v ia s p la c e in E u ro p e m a y h a v e sh ifte d , y e t th e e sse n tia l e le m e n t o f its in d e p e n d e n c e h a s re m a in e d stab le T h o u g h Y u g o sla v lea d e rs p e rce p tio n o f w o rld a ffa irs h a s o fte n b e en c lo se r to th a t o f th e U S S R th an to th a t o f th e W e st, th e ir ties w ith th e W e st an d w ith d e v e lo p in g c o u n tries h a v e b e e n v ie w e d as e sse n tia l to m a in ta in in g th e ir in d e p e n d e n c e In th e m id -1 9 5 0 s, d e v e lo p m en ts in b o th E a ste rn a n d W e ste rn E u ro p e— e g , W e s t G e rm a n y s e n try in to N A T O , th e su p p re ssio n o f rio ts in P ilse n an d P o z n a n , a n d th e S o v ie t in v a sio n a n d su p p ressio n o f H u n g a ry — c re a te d c o n flicts th a t p itte d th e su p e rp o w e rs a g a in st o n e a n o th e r A lm o st sim u lta n e o u sly , h o w e v e r, o th e r d e v e lo p m e n ts w e re o c c u rrin g w h ich re d u c e d th e o v era ll le v e l o f te n sio n , m o st n o ta b ly , th e S o v ie t w ith d ra w a l fro m th e n a v a l b a se in P o rk k a lla , F in la n d , an d th e sig n in g o f th e A u stria n S ta te T re a ty in 19 5 5 B o th a c tio n s co n trib u te d to th e e m e rg e n ce o f a n in c re a sin g ly sta b le E a ste rn E u ro p e a n secu rity re g im e T h e sec o n d se t o f d e v e lo p m e n ts, a lo n g w ith th e n o rm a liz a tio n o f re la tio n s w ith T i t o s Y u g o sla v ia , w a s p a rt o f N ik ita K h ru sh ch e v s e ffo rt to g a m W e ste rn a c ce p ta n c e fo r h is p o licy o f p e a c e fu l co e xisten ce A fte r S ta lin s d e ath th e n e w S o v ie t le a d e rs h ip w a s c o n v in c e d o f th e c o u n te rp ro d u c tiv e n a tu re o f S ta lin s c o n fro n ta tio n a l a p p ro a c h to th e W e st T h a t p o lic y h ad stim u la te d W e ste rn c o u n te r m e a su r e s , in c lu d in g th e e s ta b lish m e n t o f N A T O a n d W e ste rn r e a rm a m e n t a n d e v e n tu a lly , W e st G e rm a n y s e n try in to th e A tla n tic A llia n c e In o th e r w o rd s, w h ile c o n so lid a tin g S o v ie t c o n tro l o v e r its p o stw a r E a ste rn E u ro p e a n e m p ire , S ta lin h a d a lso c o n trib u te d to W e ste rn fe a rs to th e p o in t th a t b y 1 953, th e S o v ie ts faced a m ilita rily in te g ra te d an d p ro g re ssiv e ly m o re p o w e rfu l W e s te r n a llia n c e In ju s tify in g h is p o sitio n in th e fo reig n p o lic y stru g g le w ith M o lo to v , K h ru sh ch e v la te r sta te d th a t it w a s "m o re im p o rta n t to g iv e a w id e ly v isib le c le ar sig n a l o f w illin g n e ss to n e g o tia te , th a n to c lin g to m ilita ry p o sitio n s o f little sig n ific a n c e " 12 T o red u ce ten sio n s a n d to g a m g e n era l a c c e p ta n c e o f h is n e w a p p ro a c h to E a st-W e st re la tio n s K h ru sh ch e v m a d e p e a c e w ith T ito , re tu rn e d n a v a l fa c ilitie s a c q u ired fro m F in la n d in 1 9 4 5 , p e rm itte d F in la n d to jo in th e N o r d ic C o u n c il, an d in v ite d G e rm a n C h a n c e llo r K o n ra d A d e n a u e r to M o sco w to n e g o tia te a n o rm a liz a tio n o f re la tio n s w ith W e s t G e rm a n y It 10 w as w ith in th is c o n te x t th a t th e S o v ie ts a lso a g ree d to w ith d ra w fro m A u stria as p a rt o f th e p o stw a r se ttle m e n t in E u ro p e T h o u g h th e a g re e m e n t m e a n t th a t S o v ie t tro o p s w o u ld p u ll b a ck m c en tral E u ro p e , it a lso re q u ire d th e U n ite d S ta te s to g iv e u p its o rig in a l g o a l o f in te g ra tin g A u stria in to th e W e ste rn a llia n c e sy ste m T h o u g h th e re is so m e e v id e n c e th a t th e S o v ie ts h a d e a rlie r h o p e d th a t th e se ttle m e n t m A u stria m ig h t b e v ie w e d as a m o d e l fo r th e so lu tio n o f th e G e rm a n y q u e stio n , b y th e tim e o f its sig n in g , W e st G e rm a n e n try in to N A T O w a s v irtu a lly a s s u r e d 13 A n o th e r im p o rta n t e le m e n t o f th e e m e rg in g E u ro p e a n s e c u rity re g im e w a s th e in itia l re so lu tio n o f th e G e rm a n q u e stio n th ro u g h th e lo n g -te rm d iv isio n o f G e rm a n y , an d o f E u ro p e , in to ro u g h ly b a la n c e d reg io n s e a ch tied c lo sely to o n e o f th e su p e rp o w e rs 14 It h as b e e n th is re g im e w h ic h , fo r th e p a st th irty -fiv e y e ars o r so , h as p ro v id ed E u ro p e w ith a h ig h d eg ree o f p o litic a l an d se cu rity sta b ility — th o u g h th e reg im e w a s n o t fu lly in p la c e in 1955— an d h as a lso u n d e rg o n e so m e serio u s crises d u rin g th e e n su in g y ea rs D e sp ite th e p artia l n o rm a liz a tio n o f U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s a sso c ia te d w ith th e se d e v e lo p m e n ts, o th er e v e n ts in c en tra l E a ste rn E u ro p e m th e m id 1950s e x a c erb a te d ten sio n s in re la tio n s b e tw e e n th e tw o su p e rp o w e rs T h e rio ts m P ilse n a n d E a st B e rlin in Ju n e 1953, an d m P o z n a n in Ju n e 1 956, w ere su p p re sse d b y th e S o v ie ts o r th e ir a llies In p a rt b e ca u se o f th e b r ie f d u ratio n o f th e se e v e n ts, th e W e ste rn resp o n se w as lim ite d to stro n g c ritic ism o f th e c o m m u n ists fo r th e ir b ru ta l tre a tm e n t o f le g itim a te p o litic a l d isse n t It w a s in th e P o lish an d H u n g a ria n crises o f fall 1956 th a t th e g re a te st p o ssib ility d ev elo p e d fo r a U S -S o v ie t c o n fro n ta tio n N o t o n ly w e re th ese p o litic a l c rise s o f lo n g e r d u ra tio n , b u t m H u n g a ry , fu ll-sc a le re v o lu tio n b ro k e o u t fo llo w e d b y th e S o v ie t re o c cu p a tio n o f th e c o u n try an d th e m ilita ry su p p re ssio n o f a ll re sista n c e to th e re im p o sitio n o f S o v ie t c o n tro l A s w e h a v e a lre a d y see n , d e sp ite th e e a rlie r c alls fo r lib e ra tio n a n d th e im p lied c o m m itm e n ts m a d e in R a d io F re e E u ro p e b ro a d c a sts th a t W e ste rn a ssista n c e w o u ld b e fo rth co m in g , th e U S resp o n se w a s lim ite d to d ip lo m a tic m a n e u v e rin g a n d p o litic a l c o n d em n a tio n A ctu a l U S b e h a v io r d u rin g th e H u n g a ria n R e v o lu tio n w a s n o t b a se d o n th e p rin c ip le s o f se lf-d e te rm in a tio n o f p e o p le s o r th e ro llin g b a c k o f S o v ie t d o m in a tio n in c en tra l E u ro p e R a th e r, it w a s b a se d o n th e c le ar p erc ep tio n o f U S se lf-in te re st sp e cific a lly , th e re a liz a tio n th a t a n y m o v e to su p p o rt th e H u n g a ria n s m ilita rily w o u ld lik e ly re su lt m a d ire c t m ilita ry e n g a g em en t w ith th e U S S R an d th e p o ssib le u se o f n u c le a r w e a p o n s E v en m th e m id -1 9 5 0 s, w h e n th e S o v ie ts la ck ed e ffe c tiv e d e liv ery sy ste m s to ta rg e t n u c lea r w e ap o n s o n U S te rrito ry , th e p o ssib ility o f a n u c lea r e x ch an g e w a s v iew ed as a frig h te n in g p ro sp e c t to b e a v o id e d a t all costs D u rin g th e H u n g a ria n C risis, as d u rin g all fu tu re E a st-W e st c o n fro n ta tio n s m c en tra l E u ro p e , U S le a d ers e ffe c tiv e ly re co g n iz e d S o v ie t 11 h e g e m o n y o v e r th is re g io n an d a v o id e d c h a lle n g in g th a t h e g e m o n y in w a y s th a t m ig h t h a v e re su lted in m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n T h u s, b y 1 9 5 6 se v e ra l ru les o f th e e m e rg in g E u ro p e a n se cu rity reg im e — o r o f su p e rp o w e r b e h a v io r m cen tral E a ste rn E u ro p e— h a d a lrea d y b ee n co d ifie d th ro u g h p ra c tice d o n o t c h a lle n g e th e co re in te re sts o f th e o th e r su p e rp o w e r d ire c tly , a v o id in te rv e n tio n in th e o th e r su p e rp o w e r s sp h e re o f in flu e n c e , a n d d o n o t p u rsu e a ctio n s lik e ly to re su lt in a d ire c t m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n In th e case o f H u n g a ry all o f th e se im p e rativ e s w e re at w o rk F irst, H u n g a ry w a s w ith in th e re g io n v ie w e d b y th e S o v ie ts as th e ir a rea o f d o m in a n c e M o re o v e r, U S in te rv e n tio n in th e re g io n w o u ld h a v e b e e n p e rce iv e d in M o sco w as a c h a lle n g e to S o v ie t se c u rity a n d , th u s, m ig h t v ery lik e ly h a v e re su lte d m a m ilita ry c la sh b e tw e e n th e tw o c o u n trie s T o a v ery su b sta n tia l d eg ree th e crises o f th e p a st th irty -p lu s y e a rs h a v e la rg e ly fo llo w e d th e fo rm a t la id o u t in H u n g a ry m 1956 O n ly th e B e rlin C risis o f 1958-61 d iffered a p p re cia b ly fro m th is p a tte rn B e g in n in g m 19 5 8 th e S o v ie ts p u rsu e d a p o licy a im ed a t c o n so lid a tio n o f th e p o litica l sy ste m m th e G D R a n d a t stre n g th e n in g th e d o m e stic an d in te rn a tio n a l le g itim a c y o f its c lie n t T h e k ey issu e h ere w as th e in a b ility o f th e G D R to c o n so lid a te e ffe ctiv e c o n tro l an d to g a m leg itim a c y a m o n g its p o p u la c e o r in w o rld a ffa irs, g iv en th e a ttra c tio n o f e m ig ra tio n to W e st G e rm a n y 15 In th is sen se th e n , th e c risis th a t e ru p te d in A u g u st 1961 w a s th e re su lt o f o n e s u p e r p o w e r s a tte m p t to c o n so lid a te c o n tro l w h ich , h o w e v e r, a lso c h a llen g e d th e p o sitio n o f th e o th e r in c e n tra l E u ro p e F ro m N o v e m b er 1 9 5 8 u n til su m m e r 1 9 6 1, th e S o v ie ts in te rsp e rse d d em a n d s fo r th e W e st to reco g n iz e th e G D R s c o n tro l o v er access ro u tes to W e st B erlin w ith p e rio d s o f w illin g n e ss to n e g o tia te a re so lu tio n o f o u tsta n d in g d iffere n c es T h e k e y issu e, fro m th e S o v ie t an d G D R p e rsp e ctiv e , re la te d to th e p ro b le m s th a t W e st B erlin p o sed fo r th e v ia b ility o f th e E a st G e rm a n sta te A s th e G D R m o v e d to fin a liz e th e p ro c ess o f c o lle c tiv iz in g a g ric u ltu re an d o f e sta b lish in g a c o m m u n ist e c o n o m y m th e la te 1 9 5 0 s, th e n u m b e r o f re fu g e e s fle e in g th e co u n try ro se d ra m a tic a lly — to m o re th a n 7 0,0 0 0 d u rin g th e first fo u r m o n th s o f 1961 T h e p ro b le m fo r th e S o v ie ts w as to fin d a p o lic y w h ic h , w h ile c lo sin g o ff a c ce ss to th e W e st, w o u ld n o t re su lt in m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n T h e d ec isio n to c o n stru c t th e W a ll p ro v id e d p re c ise ly su c h a p o licy D e sp ite th e d ra m a tic in c rea se in th e im m e d ia te le v e l o f te n sio n — e s p e c ia lly a t th e lo ca l le v e l— it w a s c lea r th a t th e W e st w as n o t a b o u t to in itia te a c tio n s th a t w o u ld c h a lle n g e th e U S S R m ilita rily , an d th u s, ru n th e risk o f n u c le a r c o n fro n ta tio n A c c o rd in g to T h e o d o re S o re n se n , a m e m b e r o f P r e sid e n t K e n n e d y s " in n e r c irc le, n o re sp o n sib le o ffic ia l m th e U n ite d S ta te s, W e st B e rlin , o r W e st G e rm a n y re co m m e n d e d th e u se o f fo rce to te a r d o w n th e w a l l 16 T h u s, th e o u tc o m e o f th e B erlin C risis re in fo rce s th e p o in ts m a d e a b o v e c o n c e rn in g th e e m e rg en ce o f a E u ro p e an se cu rity re g im e a n d th e ru les o f th a t re g im e T h o u g h th e S o v ie ts d id c h a llen g e th e sta tu s q u o m B e rlin , th a t c h a lle n g e n e v e r in v o lv ed th e th re a t o f th e u se o f fo rce a g a in st th e W e st 12 W h e n th e d ec isio n w a s fin a lly m a d e to so lv e th e G D R s le g itim a c y a n d v ia b ility p ro b lem s b y se a lin g it o ff fro m th e w e ste rn z o n e o f B e rlin , n e ith e r o f th e su p erp o w e rs w as w illin g to risk d ire ct c o n fro n ta tio n A s e v e n ts m H u n g a ry five y e a rs e a rlie r h a d d em o n stra ted , th e U n ite d S ta te s w a s u n a b le to fo rce th e U S S R to ch a n g e its p o licie s in a rea s c o n sid e red o f v ita l im p o rta n c e to th e la tte r T h e n e x t se t o f e v e n ts in c en tra l E a ste rn E u ro p e o f d ire c t re le v a n ce to su p e rp o w e r se c u rity re la tio n s w e re th o se su rro u n d in g th e 1968 re fo rm m o v e m e n t m C z e c h o s lo v a k ia a n d th e e v e n tu a l m ilita ry in te r v e n tio n in th a t c o u n try b y th e U S S R a n d se v e ra l o f its a llies17 T h o u g h th e W e s t w a s e n c o u ra g ed b y th e re fo rm s an d c o m m itted its e lf to su p p o rtin g th e m p o litic a lly a n d e c o n o m ica lly , it w a s u n w illin g a n d u n a b le to d o m o re th a n th a t w h en th e S o v ie t le a d e rsh ip d ec id ed th a t th e e v o lu tio n o f e v e n ts in C z e c h o slo v a k ia re p re se n te d a c h a llen g e to co re S o v ie t in te re sts T h ro u g h o u t su m m e r 1 9 6 8 , as th e S o v ie ts m a d e th e ir g ro w in g c o n c ern s in c re a sin g ly clea r, th e W este rn re sp o n se w a s lim ite d a lm o st e x c lu siv e ly to w a rn in g s o f th e n e g a tiv e im p lic a tio n s o f S o v ie t in te rv e n tio n fo r th e e m e rg in g d e te n te in E a st-W e s t re la tio n s In m a n y resp e cts th e n e g a tiv e e ffe cts o f th e in v a sio n o n re la tio n s w ith in th e C o m m u m st m o v e m e n t w e re m o re la stin g th a n th o se o n E a stW e st re la tio n s A lrea d y , b y sp rin g 1 969, th e m o m e n tu m o f d ete n te h ad resu m e d A s w e sh a ll see b e lo w , th e p erio d 1969 to 1975 w a s o n e o f g re at im p o rta n ce fo r sta b iliz in g th e p o stw a r E u ro p e an se c u rity re g im e D u rin g th e se six y e a rs, m o st o f th e " r u le s " o f su p e rp o w e r b e h a v io r th a t h ad e m e rg e d o n an ad h o c b a sis sin c e th e late 1940s w ere fo rm a lly c o d ifie d in a series o f a g re em en ts th a t c u lm in a te d in th e H e lsin k i A cc o rd s T h e b e g in n in g o f th e 1 9 70s w itn e ssed a w h o le se rie s o f b ila te ra l an d m u ltila te ra l n e g o tia tio n s— b e tw e e n W e st G e rm a n y a n d , re sp e c tiv ely , th e U S S R , P o la n d , a n d th e G D R c o n c e rn in g th e ir m u tu a l b ila te ra l re la tio n s, a m o n g th e fo u r p o w e rs a d m in iste rin g B e rlin c o n c e rn in g th e sta tu s o f W e st B e rlin , b e tw e e n th e U S S R a n d th e U m te d S ta te s c o n c ern in g n u c lea r w e ap o n s, a n d a m o n g th e th irty -fiv e sta te s w h ich e v en tu a lly sig n ed th e H elsin k i A cc o rd s— c o n c ern in g a b ro a d ra n g e o f issu e s O u t o f th e se fo rm a l n e g o tia tio n s e m e rg e d a g re e m e n t o n th e p o stw a r b o u n d a rie s o f e a st-ce n tra l E u ro p e an d th e d o m in a n t p o sitio n o f th e U S S R m th a t re g io n H o w e v e r, a g re em en t w a s a lso re a c h e d o n issu es , re la tin g to e x p a n d in g E a st-W e st c o n ta c ts, h u m a n rig h ts g u a ra n te es in E a ste rn E u ro p e an d re la te d issu es A fin a l se rie s o f p ro b lem s fa ce d b y th e S o v ie t U m o n th a t a ffecte d its re la tio n s w ith th e U n ite d S tate s c o n ce rn e d d o m e stic p o litic a l in sta b ility m P o la n d In sp r in g 1 9 6 8 , fo r e x a m p le , stu d e n t d em o n stra tio n s a g a in st th e in c re a sin g ly re p re ssiv e p o licie s o f th e reg im e o f W la d y sla w G o m u lk a resu lte d m h a rsh re p re ssio n In D e ce m b er 1 970, strik e s an d w o rk e r s d e m o n stra tio n s in th e m a jo r in d u stria l c itie s a lo n g th e B altic S ea w e re in itia lly c ru sh e d b y th e 13 re g im e H o w e v e r, th is b r o u g h t d o w n th e G o m u lk a le a d e rsh ip w h ic h w a s re p la ce d b y th a t o f E d u ard G ie re k , w h o co m m itte d h im se lf to re fo rm s an d e c o n o m ic m o d e rn iz a tio n th a t w e re m e a n t to so lv e P o la n d s e n d e m ic p ro b le m s L ess th an six y ears late r, in Ju n e 1 976, G ie re k w a s fa ce d w ith sim ila r w id e sp re a d la b o r d isru p tio n , as h e a ttem p te d to ra ise p rice s o f b a sic fo o d stu ffs as p a rt o f a p o lic y o f e c o n o m ic re tren ch m en t T h e se d o m e stic d istu rb a n c e s w ere sh o rt-liv e d a n d d id n o t im p a c t sig n ific a n tly o n U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s N o t u n til 1 9 8 0 -8 1 , w ith th e e m e rg e n c e o f th e m a jo r c h a lle n g e to th e P o lish c o m m u m st p a rty m o u n te d b y S o lid a rity an d th e g ro w in g S o v ie t c o n c ern a b o u t a p o ssib le re p e a t o f e v e n ts m C z e c h o slo v a k ia in 1 9 68 , d id P o lish d ev elo p m en ts b e c o m e a n im p o rta n t c o m p o n e n t o f U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s 18 T h ro u g h o u t th e e n tire S o lid a rity p e rio d , th e U n ite d S ta te s w a rn e d th e S o v ie t le a d ersh ip o f th e n e g a tiv e im p lic a tio n s fo r b ila te ra l re la tio n s o f d ire c t S o v ie t in te rv e n tio n m P o lish a ffa irs T h e im p o sitio n o f m a rtia l la w an d th e o u tla w in g o f S o lid a rity in D e ce m b e r 1981 d id n o t in v o lv e S o v ie t m ilita ry fo rc e s, h o w e v e r, c o n v in c e d o f d ire c t S o v ie t in v o lv e m e n t in th e d e c isio n s o f th e g o v e r n m e n t o f G e n e ra l W o c jie c h Ja r u z e ls k i, th e R ea g a n A d m in istra tio n im p o se d p o litic a l a n d e c o n o m ic sa n c tio n s a g a in st b o th th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d P o la n d T h e g ro w in g h o stility m U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s a s so c ia te d w ith e v e n ts m P o la n d , h o w e v e r, m u st b e u n d ersto o d w ith in th e b ro a d e r c o n te x t o f d e te rio ra tin g su p e rp o w e r re la tio n s A lrea d y in th e m id -1 9 7 0 s, th e re w ere th o se in th e U n ite d S ta tes w h o q u estio n ed th e w isd o m o f a p o lic y o f d e te n te In th e ir v ie w , d ete n te h ad p ro v id e d th e S o v ie ts w ith th e c o v e r to ex p a n d th e ir in flu e n c e w ith in th e T h ird W o rld a n d to c o n tin u e th e ir u n ila te ra l m ilita ry b u ild u p m b o th th e c o n v e n tio n a l an d n u c lea r a ren a s E v e n p rio r to th e S o v ie t m ilita ry in v a sio n o f A fg h a n ista n m D e ce m b e r 19 7 9 a n d th e im p o sitio n b y P resid e n t C a rter o f th e g ra m e m b a rg o , th e S A L T II trea ty w a s m d a n g e r o f n o t b e in g ra tified b y th e U S S en ate T h e e le ctio n o f R o n a ld R e ag a n in N o v e m b e r 1 9 8 0 b ro u g h t to th e W h ite H o u se a n ew p o litic a l le a d ersh ip c o n v in c e d o f th e g ro w in g c h a llen g e to U S in te re sts e m a n a tin g fro m " th e e v il e m p ir e " an d c o m m itte d to re e sta b lish in g U S m ilita ry m ig h t a n d c h a lle n g in g th e S o v ie t U n io n w h e re v e r p o ssib le T h u s, b y D e c e m b er 1 9 81, w h e n G e n e ra l Ja ru z e lsk i im p o se d m a rtia l law in P o la n d , su p e rp o w e r re la tio n s h a d a lrea d y d e te rio ra te d su b sta n tia lly to w a rd w h a t so m e a n a ly sts w e re c a llin g "C o ld W a r n" Y e t, d e sp ite th e g ro w in g te n sio n in U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s, th e re w a s n o q u e stio n in 1981 o f th e p o ssib le u se o f U S m ilita ry fo rce In c e n tra l E aste rn E u ro p e , th is ru le h ad lo n g sin c e b e en c la rifie d D esp ite u n h a p p in e ss w ith e v e n ts in P o la n d an d c o n v ic tio n o f th e d ire c t in v o lv e m e n t o f M o sc o w m th o se e v e n ts, th e R ea g a n a d m in istra tio n n e v e r c o n sid e re d a n y th in g m o re th a n p o litic a l a n d e c o n o m ic sa n c tio n s as a n in d ic a tio n to th e S o v ie ts o f th e 14 le v e l o f U S in d ig n a tio n an d as an "in d u c e m e n t" to b o th th e S o v ie t an d P o lish le a d ersh ip s to m o d ify th e ir p o licie s T h e fin a l e x a m p le o f c o n flic tin g in te re sts b e tw e e n th e su p e rp o w e rs as th e y rela te to E a ste rn E u ro p e— th o u g h th e issu e w a s re a lly o n e o f b ro a d e r E u ro p e a n in te re sts— c o n c e rn e d th e S o v ie t in tro d u c tio n , b e g in n in g in 1 9 7 7 , o f S S -2 0 in te rm e d ia te -ra n g e n u c lea r m issile s ta rg e te d o n W e ste rn E u ro p e In a v ery rea l w a y , th e d e p lo y m e n t o f th e se m issiles th re a te n e d a p o ssib le sh ift in th e o v e ra ll m ilita ry b a la n ce in E u ro p e an d th u s, a p artia l c h a llen g e to th e se cu rity re g im e th a t h a d b ee n in p la ce fo r m o re th an a d e ca d e T h e in tro d u c tio n o f S o v ie t m issile s in th e late 1 9 7 0 s an d th e N A T O d u a l-tra c k re sp o n se o f m a tc h in g th e d e v e lo p m e n t a n d d e p lo y m e n t o f m e d iu m -ra n g e m issile s w h ile sim u lta n e o u sly try in g to n e g o tia te th e ir e lim in a tio n , c o n trib u te d sig n ific a n tly to th e d e te rio ra tio n o f U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s in th e e a rly 1 9 80s O n ly a fte r a c o m p lete b rea k d o w n in su p e rp o w e r n e g o tia tio n s on arm s c o n tro l, m u ch p o litic a l p o stu rin g o n th e p a rt o f b o th su p e rp o w e rs, an d th e e m e rg e n c e o f a n e w p o litica l le ad e rsh ip w ith a n ew fo reig n p o lic y an d a rm s co n tro l a g e n d a , w as th e issu e reso lv ed in th e b re a k th ro u g h In te rm e d ia te -R a n g e a n d S h o rte r-R a n g e N u c le a r F o rc es (IN F ) T re a ty a g re e m e n t o f 1 9 8 7 th a t c alle d fo r th e rem o v a l o f a ll S o v ie t an d U S in te rm e d ia te -ra n g e m issile s H o w e v e r, th e S o v ie t d ecisio n to d e p lo y th is w e ap o n s sy ste m rep re sen ted a ch a llen g e to th e e x istin g se cu rity re g im e in E u ro p e D e sp ite S o v ie t claim s th a t th ey w ere m e re ly m o d e rn iz in g o ld e r w e a p o n s sy ste m s, b o th th e q u a lita tiv e im p ro v e m e n ts o f th e sy ste m s an d th e n u m b ers o f sy ste m s b e in g d e p lo y e d re p resen te d a m a jo r sh ift m th ea te r n u c le a r c a p a b ilitie s A lth o u g h th e S S -2 0 s h a v e n o w b e en re m o v e d , th e re p e r c u ssio n s o f th is c h a llen g e re m a in T h e IN F tre a ty an d th e o n g o in g u n ila te ra l w ith d ra w a l o f so m e o f S o v ie t g ro u n d fo rce s, in clu d in g ta n k s, fro m C e n tra l E u ro p e h av e e n co u ra g e d w id e sp re a d c alls w ith in N A T O fo r fu n d a m en ta l re c o n sid e ra tio n o f th e e n tire se cu rity stra te g y u p o n w h ich N A T O h as b e en b a se d fo r th e p a st th irty -fiv e y e ars A s sh o u ld b e e v id e n t a t th is p o m t, d e sp ite U S rh e to ric an d sta te d lo n g te rm o b je c tiv e s, A m e ric a n p re sid e n tia l a d m in istra tio n s fro m T r u m a n to R e a g a n re co g n iz ed th e re a lity o f su p e rp o w e r in te re sts a n d c a p a b ilitie s m c en tra l E a ste rn E u ro p e A s a re su lt, th e y p u rsu e d p o licie s v is-à -v is th e U S S R th a t w e re p a rt o f a n o v era ll p o lic y o f c o m p e titiv e c o e x iste n ce A lth o u g h th e lo n g -te rm o b je c tiv e o f e lim in a tin g S o v ie t d o m in a tio n o v e r E a ste rn E u ro p e re m a in e d , it w a s te m p e re d b y th e p rim a ry c o n ce rn o f n o t p ro v o k in g a m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n w ith th e S o v ie t U n io n T h u s, c o e x iste n c e g e n e ra lly w o n o u t o v e r th e e le m e n ts o f c o m p e titio n in U S p o lic y in E a ste rn E u ro p e A s n o te d a b o v e , U S p o licy -m a k e rs p u rsu e d m o re lim ite d o b je ctiv e s A s Jo h n G a d d is p u t it w h e n sp e a k in g a b o u t th e p o licy o f th e E ise n h o w e r a d m in istra tio n to w a rd th e S o v ie t U n io n "s in c e su rre n d e r w a s u n th in k a b le , 15 m ilita ry v ic to ry im p o ssib le , an d th e c o st o f c o n ta in m en t u n a c c e p ta b le , it se e m ed lo g ic a l to e x p lo re p o ssib ilitie s fo r in co rp o ra tin g S o v ie t-A m e n c a n riv a lry — w h ich w a s c e rta in to c o n tin u e — w ith in a m u tu a lly a c c e p ta b le fra m e w o rk o f c o e x iste n c e " 19 B y th e 19 6 0 s an d 1 9 7 0 s, th e U n ite d S ta te s e x p re ssed th e c o m p etitiv e e le m en ts o f th e re la tio n sh ip b y e ffo rts to e n c o u ra g e th e p e a ce fu l tra n sfo rm a tio n o f th e S o v ie t b lo c in to a m o re d iv e rsifie d an d p lu r a listic e n tity — i e b y a p o lic y o f "p e a c e fu l e n g a g em en t " In lin e w ith th is o b je ctiv e , th e U n ite d S ta te s g ra n te d m o st-fa v o re d n a tio n sta tu s to se v e ra l c o u n trie s d ee m e d to b e p u rsu in g in d e p e n d e n t p o licies O n a v isit d u rin g th e e a rly y ears o f h is a d m in istra tio n , P r e sid e n t C a rte r p raise d P o la n d fo r its "e n lig h te n e d " p o lic ie s, th e U n ite d S ta te s retu rn e d th e cro w n o f S t S te p h e n , th e sy m b o l o f H u n g a ria n sta te h o o d , to th e g o v e rn m e n t in B u d a p e st, w h ile a lso g ra n tin g m o st-fa v o re d -n a tio n sta tu s to H u n g a ry , an d a t th e H e lsin k i fo llo w -u p c o n fe re n ce m B elg ra d e m 1 9 7 8 , W a sh in g to n to o k a stro n g sta n d o n th e issu e o f h u m a n rig h ts in E aste rn E u ro p e T h e re v o lu tio n a ry d ev e lo p m e n ts o f 1989 an d e a rly 1990 h av e a lrea d y re stru c tu re d th e d o m e stic so cio -p o litic a l sy stem s o f th e c o u n trie s o f th e reg io n an d a lso th e E u ro p e a n se cu rity sy stem th a t h a s b e en in p la c e sin c e W o rld W a r II O n ly fo u r tim e s d u rin g th e p a st tw o c en tu ries h a v e e v e n ts o f su c h im p o rta n c e fo r th e n a tu re o f d o m e stic an d in te rn a tio n a l p o litic a l re la tio n sh ip s o c cu rre d m E u ro p e 1) d u rin g th e F re n ch R e v o lu tio n an d th e N a p o le o n ic p e rio d w h en F ra n ce a ttem p te d to d estro y th e o ld p o litic a l o rd e r a n d re p la c e it w ith a F re n ch -ce n te re d sy ste m o f n o m in a lly in d e p e n d e n t an d d e m o c ra tic sta te s 2) a fte r th e d e fe at o f N a p o leo n m 1 8 1 5 , w h e n th e o ld o rd e r w a s in p a rt re esta b lish e d b y th e v icto rs, 3) a fte r W o rld W a r I an d th e c o lla p se o f th e tra d itio n a l C e n tra l an d E a ste rn E u ro p e an e m p ires an d th e ir re p la c e m e n t b y a n u m b e r o f sm a ll sta te s in C e n tra l E u ro p e an d a re g im e m S o v ie t R u ssia c o m m itted to re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e , a n d 4) a fte r W o rld W a r II w h en th e g eo g ra p h ic a n d p o litica l m a p o f E u ro p e w a s m o d ifie d o n ce m o re b y th e c o lla p se o f th e tra d itio n a l g re a t p o w e rs a n d th e e m e rg e n c e o f th e U S S R a n d th e U n ite d S tate s a s th e d o m in a n t a cto rs in E u ro p e a n d th e w o rld T h e c h a n g e s in itia te d in 1989 p ro m ise to h av e lo n g -te rm c o n se q u e n c es c o m p a ra b le to th o se a sso c ia te d w ith th e fo u r e a rlie r p e rio d s o f re v o lu tio n a ry re stru c tu r in g T h o u g h th e c alls in E a ste rn E u ro p e fo r th e w ith d ra w a l o f S o v ie t fo rc e s a n d th e d em a n d s fo r G e rm a n re u n ific a tio n , c h a lle n g e th e fo u n d a tio n s o f th e e x istin g E u ro p e an se c u rity sy ste m to th is p o in t a t le a st, it a p p e a rs th a t th e le a d ersh ip m W a sh in g to n a n d M o sco w a re c o m m itte d to e n su rin g th a t th e c h a n g e s d o n o t lea d to c o n fro n ta tio n T h u s, it w a s in E u ro p e first— an d p a rtic u la rly m c en tra l E aste rn E u ro p e — th a t th e tw o su p e rp o w e rs rea ch e d a fo rm o f a c co m m o d a tio n w h ich h a s p e rm itte d th e m to c o m p e te , w h ile sim u lta n e o u sly lim itin g th e e x te n t o f 16 th a t c o m p e titio n le st it lea d to m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n a n d , u ltim a te ly , to m u tu al d e stru c tio n It is a lso m cen tral E aste rn E u ro p e th a t th e C o ld W a r is c o m in g to a clo se T h e P o stw a r E u ro p e an S e c u rity R e g im e an d th e "'R u les" o f S u p e rp o w e r B e h a v io r A fte r th is e x a m in a tio n o f th e n a tu re o f S o v ie t an d U S in te re sts m E aste rn E u ro p e an d o f th e e v o lu tio n o f p o stw a r p o litic a l an d se c u rity d ev elo p m en ts th e re as th e y h a v e c o n c e rn e d re la tio n s b e tw e e n th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d th e U n ite d S ta te s, w e tu rn to a m o re sy ste m a tic d iscu ssio n o f th e n a tu re o f th e se c u rity re g im e th a t em e rg e d an d o f th e g e n e ra l ru les o f b e h a v io r a sso c ia ted w ith th a t re g im e W e b e g in b y e m p h a siz in g a p o in t w h ich , th o u g h c en tra l to th e e n tire U S -S o v ie t re la tio n sh ip m E u ro p e an d g lo b a lly , h a s n o t y e t b ee n d isc u ssed d ire c tly in th is c h a p ter— n a m e ly , th e c en tra lity o f n u c le a r w ea p o n s an d th e n u c le a r sta le m a te in th a t re la tio n sh ip T h e d e v e lo p m e n t o f n u c lea r w e ap o n s an d e ffectiv e d e liv e ry sy ste m s b y th e su p e rp o w e rs crea ted an e n v iro n m e n t in w h ich b o th c o u n tries w e re c o n c ern e d le st c o n flicts e sc a la te to n u c le a r c o n fro n ta tio n an d th u s, th e p o ssib ility o f m u tu a l a n n ih ila tio n It h a s b e en p re c ise ly w ith in th e c o n te x t o f th is n u c lea r sta le m a te th a t E a st-W e st an d S o v ie t-U S re la tio n sh ip s h av e e v o lv ed in E u ro p e P ro b a b ly th e m o st im p o rta n t se cu rity -re la te d d e v e lo p m e n t fo r E u ro p e th a t d e riv e d d ire c tly fro m th is sta le m a te an d th e re su ltin g c o m m itm e n t o f b o th th e U n ite d S ta te s a n d th e S o v ie t U n io n to p re v e n t c o n fro n ta tio n , w as th e e v o lu tio n o f a sta b le se cu rity re g im e m E u ro p e m w h ich w a rfa re — or e v e n th e th re a t o f w a rfa re — h ad b ee n e lim in a te d H o w e v e r, a t th e sam e tim e , th e p a rtic ip a n ts in th is se c u rity re g im e — e sp e cia lly th e tw o m a jo r m ilita ry p o w e rs— c o m m itte d larg e a m o u n ts o f re so u rc e s to th e ir se cu rity sy ste m s a n d m a in ta in ed larg e fo rce s In p a rt as a re su lt o f th e sta b iliz a tio n o f th e se c u rity re g im e in E u ro p e , b u t a lso re su ltin g fro m th e in cre a se d im p o rta n c e o f o th er re g io n s o f th e w o rld su c h as th e M id d le E a st a n d E a stern A sia , E a ste rn E u ro p e b e c a m e re la tiv e ly less im p o rta n t in th e S o v ie tA m e ric a n g lo b a l c o m p e titio n an d m in te rn a tio n a l a ffairs g e n e ra lly O n th e o th er h an d , to an in c re a sin g d e g ree u n til th e g ro w in g e c o n o m ic p ro b lem s o f th e 1 9 8 0 s, E a ste rn E u ro p e an c o u n trie s p lay ed a su p p o rtin g ro le m th e e x p a n sio n o f S o v ie t in v o lv e m e n t th ro u g h o u t th e T h ird W o rld M ilita ry , e c o n o m ic , a n d p o litic a l a c tiv itie s o f in d iv id u a l E a ste rn E u ro p e a n c o u n trie s— a lo n g w ith C u b a — o fte n fa cilita te d th e e x p a n d e d a c tiv itie s o f th e U S S R a n d /o r h elp e d to d istrib u te th e S o v ie t co sts o f e m p ire 20 E v e r sin c e th e S e co n d W o rld W a r, E aste rn E u ro p e h a s b e en an a rea v ie w e d as e ssen tia l to th e v ita l in te rests o f o n e o f th e tw o su p erp o w e rs, w h ile th e o th e r s in te re sts w e re m o re m a rg in a l In a v ery rea l se n se u n til th e re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s o f 1989, E aste rn E u ro p e w a s v iew ed b y th e S o v ie ts as a 17 "h a r d sp h e re o f in flu e n c e " in w h ic h th ey h a d im p o rta n t in te re sts a n d o v e r w h ich th e y a re a b le to e x erc ise e x te n siv e c o n t r o l21 A lth o u g h a t o n e le v e l th e U n ite d S ta te s refu se d to a c ce p t th e id e a o f p e rm a n e n t S o v ie t d o m in a n c e o v e r th e a rea , in o th e r w a y s it a d m itte d th a t in tim e s o f crisis w h e n th e S o v ie t le a d ersh ip sa w a se rio u s c h a llen g e to its in terests in th e a rea th e re w a s little th a t th e U m te d S ta te s c o u ld d o to in flu e n c e S o v ie t p o lic y G iv e n th e c o n v e n tio n a l m ilita ry b a la n c e m th e re g io n an d th e im p lic a tio n s o f a g lo b a l n u c le a r c o n fr o n ta tio n , A m e ric a n p re sid e n ts sin c e T r u m a n h a v e e x c lu d e d th e u se o f m ilita ry p o w e r T h u s, th e se cu rity re g im e th a t e m e rg e d in E u ro p e w as o n e b a se d o n th e re a lity o f th e d o m in a n t ro le o f th e U S S R in E a ste rn E u ro p e 22 In fact, d u rin g th e th e e a rly 19 7 0 s th e d eten te p o lic y o f H e n ry K issin g e r w a s to a v e ry g re a t d e g ree b ased o n a c ce p tin g th e re a lity o f S o v ie t d o m in a n ce in E a ste rn E u ro p e as a p a rt o f th e c o st in v o lv ed in " ta m in g " S o v ie t b e h a v io r th ro u g h o u t th e re st o f d ie w o rld T h is v ie w p o in t w a s e x p re sse d p e rh a p s m o st b o ld ly in th e so -ca lle d S o n n e n feld t D o ctrin e o f 19 7 5 th a t re fe rre d to th e ' o r g a n ic n a tu re o f th e S o v ie t-E a ste rn E u ro p e a n re la tio n sh ip a n d se e m in g ly a c c e p ted lo n g -sta n d in g S o v ie t d o m in a tio n in E a ste rn E u ro p e H o w ev er, th is v ie w p o in t in c o rre c tly a ssu m e d th a t th e im p e ria l re la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n th e U S S R an d E a ste rn E u ro p e an d th e e x isten ce o f p o litic a l re g im e s v ie w e d b y th e m a jo rity o f th e p o p u la tio n as ille g itim a te , c o u ld re m a in sta b le o v e r tim e 23 In fa c t, as w e sh a ll d isc u ss in so m e d eta il b e lo w , a t th e v e ry tim e w h e n U S p o licy a cce p te d th e sta b ility o f th e sta tu s q u o in th e a rea , p re ssu re s w ere b e g in n in g to b u ild u p th a t a d eca d e la te r w o u ld re su lt m re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e A m o n g th ese w e re th e g ro w in g e v id e n ce o f e c o n o m ic d e te rio ra tio n th a t w o u ld re d u c e th e a b ility o f th e re g im es to fu lfill c o m m itm e n ts fo r im p ro v e d sta n d a rd s o f liv in g , th e fe ste rin g o f p o p u la r re se n tm e n t o f c o n tin u e d S o v ie t d o m in a tio n , a n d th e o n g o in g su p p ressio n o f o p e n p o litic a l e x p re ssio n A s w e h a v e a lre a d y se e n , th ro u g h o u t th e p a st fo u r d ec a d es th e re h a v e b e e n fe w a c tu al c o n fro n ta tio n s b e tw e e n th e U S S R a n d th e U n ite d S ta te s th a t h ad th e ir o rig in m E a ste rn E u ro p e an e v e n ts O n ly d u rin g th e B e rlin B lo c k a d e o f 1 9 48 -4 9 — w h en th e n a tu re o f th e p o stw a r E u ro p e a n se c u rity sy ste m w a s still in flu x — w as th ere a sig n ific a n t p o ssib ility o f d ire c t m ilita ry c o n fro n ta tio n B u t e v e n m B e rlin , th e tw o sid e s so o n w o rk e d o u t ta c it a rra n g e m e n ts sh o rt o f th e u se o f m ilita ry fo rce a c co rd in g to w h ich th e re m a in in g m o n th s o f th e stru g g le o v e r th e sta tu s o f B e rlin w o u ld b e c o n d u cte d B y th e m id -1 9 5 0 s— a n d e v en m o re c le a rly a fte r th e B e rlin W a ll crisis o f 19 6 1 — th e g e n e ra l o u tlin e s o f th e n e w E u ro p e a n sy ste m h a d e m e rg e d in w h ic h th e c o n tin e n t a n d G e rm a n y w ere d iv id e d in to se p a ra te p o litic a le c o n o m ic -m ilita ry b lo c s N A T O a n d W a rsa w P a c t m ilita ry fo rce s h a v e p re c lu d e d e a c h o th er s a b ility to m a k e a m ilita ry b re a k th ro u g h M o re o v e r, th e c en tra l ro le o f th e su p e rp o w e rs in th is b a la n c e m e a n s th a t th e ir g lo b a l stra te g ic n u c le a r c a p a b ilities are a lso in te g ra lly tied to th e b a la n c e m E u ro p e 18 O u t o f th is situ a tio n a ro se a p a tte rn o f e x p e cta tio n s an d c o n tro lled resp o n se s th a t c o n trib u te d to th e o v era ll secu rity sta b ility o f E u ro p e , d esp ite p e rio d ic c h a lle n g es th a t h a v e e m e rg e d , p rim a rily fro m th e c h a lle n g es to th e S o v ie ts c o n tro l o f th e ir o w n b lo c T h is p a tte rn o f e x p e c ta tio n s an d b e h a v io rs in clu d e d se v e ra l clea r 'ru le s o f p ru d e n ce ' S ew e ry n B ia le r an d A lex a n d e r G e o rg e p ro v id e listin g s o f ru les o f p ru d e n c e in c o n flic t situ a tio n s th a t h a v e e v o lv e d o v e r tim e to g u id e su p e rp o w e r re la tio n s 24 B u t th ese ru les d e p e n d e d o n a co ld w a r re g im e th a t w as o f m u tu al in te re st W h a t n o o n e fo resa w , w as th e e v e n tu a l ju d g e m e n t o f th e S o v ie t le a d ersh ip u n d e r G o rb a c h e v th a t th e co ld w a r re g im e n o lo n g e r serv e s its in terests In th e c risis situ a tio n s th a t w e h av e d iscu sse d , w e fin d th e ty p e o f b e h a v io r m e a n t to lim it c o n flic t p re c ise ly b e c a u se o f th e fe a r o f e sca la tio n to th e n u c le a r le v e l T h o u g h n o t all o f th e g e n era l " r u le s " a re d ire c tly re le v a n t to U S -S o v ie t c o m p e titiv e re la tio n s in E a ste rn E u ro p e , th o se w h ich are re le v a n t h a v e b e en o b serv e d v irtu a lly w ith o u t fail In all o f th e c ases o f a c tu a l o r th re a te n e d S o v ie t in te rv e n tio n to re im p o se c o n tro l o v e r re c a lc itr a n t a llies— H u n g a ry , C z e c h o slo v a k ia , P o la n d — th e U S p u b lic ly sta te d its in te n tio n n o t to in te rv e n e R e c e n tly , th o u g h th e re h a s b e e n n o e v id e n ce o f S o v ie t in te n tio n s to in te rv e n e m th e a rea to m a in ta in its d o m in a n t p o sitio n , th e U S o ffic ia ls h a v e a n n o u n ce d th a t th e U n ite d S ta te s w ill n o t a tte m p t to ta k e u n ila te ra l a d v a n ta g e o f th e re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s th a t are re d e fin in g th e n a tu re o f p o litic s an d se cu rity in E aste rn E u ro p e 25 In lin e w ith th e ' r u le " o f ca u tio n in p u rsu in g p o licie s in a rea s w h ere th e v ita l in te rests o f th e o th e r p o w e r are a t sta k e, W e ste rn p o lic y -m a k e rs h av e b e e n e sp e c ia lly c are fu l in d ev elo p in g re la tio n s w ith th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n c o u n trie s O n e im p o rta n t d e v ia tio n fro m th is c a u tio n w a s th e first stag e o f W e st G e rm a n y s "O stp o litik in itia te d m 1966 b y th e K issm g e r-B ra n d t G ran d C o a litio n T h e p o lic y e x p lic itly a im ed a t e sta b lish in g d ire ct re la tio n s b e tw e e n B o n n an d th e E a stern E u ro p e an ca p ita ls an d , in p a rt a t le a st, w e a n in g th e la tte r a w a y fro m th e ir clo se d ep e n d e n cy o n th e U S S R , sp littin g th e W a rsa w P a c t, a n d iso la tin g th e G D R A s a c o ro llary o f th e ir m ilita ry in te rv e n tio n in C z e c h o slo v a k ia m 1 9 6 8 , th e S o v ie ts m a d e c lea r th e le v e l o f th e ir o p p o sitio n to th is ty p e o f "in te r fe re n c e " in th e ir sp h e re o f in flu e n c e In th e n e w v e rsio n o f "O stp o litik in itia te d m 1969 th e B ra n d t g o v e rn m e n t, in e ffe ct, c lea red m a tte rs w ith M o sco w p rio r to in itia tin g e ffo rts to e xp a n d re la tio n s m E a ste rn E u ro p e A n o th e r e x ce p tio n to th is ru le o c cu rred m 1981 in P o la n d as U S an d W e stern la b o r u n io n s, a n d o th e r in te re st g ro u p s, a c tiv e ly su p p o rte d th e S o lid a rity m o v e m e n t O n e o f th e m a jo r a c cu sa tio n s b r o u g h t b y th e S o v ie ts a g a m st S o lid a rity w as p re c ise ly th e ch arg e th a t it w as fu n c tio n in g as an a g e n t o f W este rn in te re sts T h e im p o sitio n o f m artia l la w in D e ce m b e r 1981 re d u ce d th e se " illic it" p o litica l co n ta cts, th o u g h th e Ja ru z e lsk i re g im e w as n e v e r a b le to e lim in a te th e m e n tire ly 19 T h r o u g h o u t th e e n tire p o stw a r p e rio d , n e g o tia tio n s an d le ss fo rm a l p o litic a l c o n ta c ts h av e o c c u rred d u rin g p e rio d s o f h e ig h te n ed te n sio n F o r e x a m p le , d u rin g th e B erlin B lo c k a d e in 1 9 4 8-4 9 , re g u la r c o n su lta tio n s o c c u r re d b e tw e e n th e S o v ie ts a n d th e th re e m a jo r W e ste r n g o v e rn m e n ts T h e "r u le s o f p ru d e n c e " m U S -S o v ie t b e h a v io r c o n c e r n in g E a ste rn E u ro p e re su lted in itia lly p rim a rily fro m p a st b e h a v io r p a tte rn s a n d c o n siste d o f a k in d o f "c o m m o n la w " m U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s D u rin g th e d e te n te p e rio d o f 1 9 7 0-7 5 , h o w e v e r, a su b sta n tia l n u m b er o f th ese ru les w e re " c o d ifie d " in a se rie s o f fo rm a l a g ree m e n ts T h e tre a tie s th a t e m e rg e d fro m b ila te ra l an d m u ltila te ra l n e g o tia tio n s re su lte d in th e fo rm a l re c o g n itio n o f e x istin g p o stw a r b o rd e rs, c o m m itm e n ts n o t to su p p o rt c h a n g e m th e te rrito ria l sta tu s q u o th ro u g h c o e rc iv e m e a n s, sp e c ific a g ree m e n ts c o n c e rn in g th e sta tu s o f W e st B e rlin , an d a g re e m e n ts o n n o n -in te rfe re n c e in th e in te rn a l a ffa irs o f o th er sta te s T h o u g h it w as n ev er o p e ra tio n a liz e d an d w a s la te r th e so u rc e o f b itte r c ritic ism , th e "B a sic P rin c ip le s A g r e e m e n t" o n U S -S o v ie t re la tio n s sig n ed b y P re sid e n t N ix o n an d G e n e ra l S e c re ta ry B re z h n e v in 19 7 2 a lso c o n trib u te d to th e e n v iro n m e n t o f fo rm a liz in g th e ru les o f b e h a v io r in U S S o v ie t re la tio n s 26 A s U S -S o v ie t a g re e m e n t a n d c o o p e ra tio n w as fo rm a liz e d , it a lso b e c a m e m o re c o m p le x F o r e x a m p le , in th e n e g o tia tio n s o v e r th e sta tu s o f W e st B e rlin , b o th sid es ca m e to th e n e g o tia tin g ta b le w ith a sp e c ific list o f o b jec tiv es F o r th e W e st, th is w as a list o f ra th er lim ite d g o a ls o f "p ra c tic a l im p r o v e m e n ts " in th e situ a tio n in a n d a ro u n d B e rlin F o r th e S o v ie t U n io n th e k e y o b je ctiv e w a s W e stern re co g n itio n o f th e G D R H o w e v e r, b o th sid e s h ad a d d itio n a l o b je c tiv e s, th e a tta in m e n t o f w h ich th e su c c e ssfu l n e g o tia tio n s o v e r B erlin m ig h t fa cilita te F o r e x a m p le , th e S o v ie ts re co g n iz e d th a t th e y c o u ld n o t a c h ie v e th e g e n e ra l o b je ctiv e o f d eten te , n o r th e m o re sp e c ific o b je c tiv e s o f W e ste rn re co g n itio n o f th e G D R an d fu ll W e stern p a rtic ip a tio n in a c o n fe re n ce o n se c u rity a n d c o o p e ra tio n in E u ro p e , u n less th e B e rlin situ a tio n w e re im p ro v ed T h u s, th e n e g o tia tio n s w e re b a se d o n b a rg a in in g stra te g ie s th a t c u t a c ro ss d iffere n t issu e a rea s T h e fin a l a g re e m en t o n th e sta tu s o f B e rlin d id n o t m e e t th e lo n g -te rm o b je ctiv e s o r a m b itio n s o f e ith e r sid e , ra th er it w a s a c o m p ro m ise in w h ich b o th a c ce p te d w h a t th e y w ere ab le to g e t a t th e tim e 27 B efo re tu rn in g to a c o n c lu d in g d isc u ssio n o f th e im p o rta n c e o f th e d ra m a tic re c e n t c h a n g e s in th e U S S R an d E a ste rn E u ro p e an d th e ir re le v a n c e fo r in c re a se d E a st-W e st a n d S o v ie t-U S c o o p e ra tio n in re la tio n s h ip to E aste rn E u ro p e , it is w e ll to su m m a riz e b r ie fly th e a rg u m en t o f th is c h a p te r o n th is p o in t B y th e m id -1 9 5 0 s— d e fin ite ly b y th e e a rly 19 6 0 s— a n ew se cu rity reg im e h a d e m e rg e d in E u ro p e th a t in c lu d e d th e d iv isio n o f th e c o n tin e n t in to c o n flic tin g m ilita ry b lo c s In a d d itio n , g iv en th e lev e l o f S o v ie t in te re st an d in v o lv e m e n t in E a ste rn E u ro p e , th e m ilita ry b a la n c e in th e a re a , a n d th e 20 im p lic a tio n s o f th e su p e rp o w e r n u c lea r sta le m a te , ru les o f b e h a v io r e m e rg e d w h ich re su lte d in c a re fu l a n d lim ite d W e ste rn in v o lv e m e n t in th e re g io n o f a ty p e th a t w o u ld n o t lea d to su p erp o w e r c o n fro n ta tio n B y th e 1 9 7 0 s, th is re g im e w a s la rg e ly fo rm a liz e d th ro u g h a se rie s o f a g ree m e n ts th a t c u lm in a ted in th e H elsin k i A c co rd s o f 1975 T h o u g h b o th su p e rp o w e rs h a v e c o n sid e red c h a lle n g in g th e fo u n d a tio n s o f th is se c u rity re g im e — th e S o v ie ts, m a rg in a lly , b y th e d e p lo y m en t o f S S -20 s m th e late 1970s an d th e U n ite d S ta te s, m o re c en tra lly , th ro u g h th e e ffo rt e m b o d ied in P r e sid e n t R e a g a n s c a m p a ig n o f m ilita ry re v ita liz a tio n , in clu d in g S D I, to sh ift th e v ery n a tu re o f th e g lo b a l su p e rp o w e r m ilita ry b a la n c e — it re m a in e d m p la c e m 19 8 5 w h e n M ik h a il G o rb a ch e v too k o ffice In th e fin a l se ctio n o f th is c h a p ter w e sh a ll d iscu ss th e im p lic a tio n s o f G o rb a c h e v s "n e w th in k in g ' an d th e re v o lu tio n a ry e v e n ts o f 1 98 9 -9 0 in E a stern E u ro p e fo r e x p a n d in g th e c o o p e ra tiv e a sp e cts o f S o v ie t-U S re la tio n s in th e re g io n T h e E a st E u ro p e a n R e v o lu tio n an d E x p a n d e d S u p e rp o w e r C o o p e ra tio n S in ce 1 9 8 5 w h e n M ik h ail G o rb a ch ev a ssu m e d th e le a d ersh ip o f th e C o m m u n ist P a rty in th e S o v ie t U n io n — an d e v e n m o re sin c e sp r in g o f 19 8 9 — re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s h a v e o c cu rred w ith in E a ste rn E u ro p e w h ich are fu n d a m e n ta lly tra n sfo rm in g th e E u ro p e an se cu rity sy ste m a n d th e c o m p e titiv e -c o o p e ra tiv e re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e tw o su p e rp o w e rs A t th e b e g in n in g o f 1989 S o v ie t le a d e r M ik h a il G o rb a ch ev fo u n d o n ly lim ite d su p p o rt a m o n g th e c o m m u n ist p o litic a l e lite s o f E a ste rn E u ro p e fo r h is c o n c ep tio n o f p o litica l re fo rm O n ly th e c o m m u n ist p a rty le a d e rsh ip s m P o la n d an d H u n g a ry c o u ld b e v iew e d as co m m itte d re fo rm e rs E lse w h e re , th e c o n c e p t o f refo rm re ce iv e d m ix ed re ac tio n s little m o re th a n lip se rv ic e in B u lg a ria , sh a rp c ritic ism in C z e c h o slo v a k ia an d th e G D R , o r o u trig h t c o n d em n a tio n in R o m a n ia E v en in P o la n d an d H u n g a ry , th e p a c e o f refo rm w as slo w an d see m e d o n th e v erg e o f sta llin g B y th e en d o f th e y e a r, a S o lid a r ity g o v e r n m e n t ru le d P o la n d , th e B e rlin W a ll h a d fa lle n a n d G e rm a n re u n ific a tio n see m e d b u t a m a tte r o f tim e, C e a u c esc u s d ic ta to rsh ip h ad b e en o v e rth ro w n in a b lo o d y re v o lu tio n in R o m a n ia , a w o rld -re n o w n e d d issid e n t p la y w rig h t, V a c la v H a v e l, h ad b een e le cte d p re sid e n t m C z e c h o slo v a k ia , an d th e R e d A rm y w a s o n th e v erg e o f m o v in g o u t o f m u ch o f th e reg io n a t lo ca l re q u e s t R e v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e— in th e fu ll se n se o f th e term ' r e v o lu tio n a r y "— w a s in p ro ce ss th ro u g h o u t th e re g io n , as th e b a sic stru c tu re s o f d o m e stic p o litic a l p o w e r (in clu d in g th e fo rm a l in stitu tio n s o f g o v ern a n c e) as w e ll as th e stru c tu re s o f th e E u ro p e an in te r-sta te sy ste m w ere ra d ic a lly c h a n g in g O n ly fo u r tim e s d u rin g th e p a st tw o c en tu ries h av e e v e n ts o f su c h im p o rta n ce fo r th e n a tu re o f d o m e stic an d in te rn a tio n a l p o litic a l re la tio n sh ip s o c cu rre d in E u ro p e (1) d u rin g th e F re n c h R e v o lu tio n an d th e 21 N a p o le o n ic w a rs, w h en F ra n ce a ttem p te d to d estro y th e o ld p o litic a l o rd e r a n d re p la ce it w ith a F re n ch -c e n tere d sy ste m o f n o m in a lly d e m o c ra tic , b u t d ep e n d e n t, sta te s, (2) a fte r th e d e fe a t o f N a p o le o n in 1 8 1 5 , w h en th e o ld o rd e r w a s in larg e p a rt re e sta b lish e d b y th e v icto rs, (3) a fte r W o rld W a r I a n d th e c o lla p se o f th e tra d itio n a l E u ro p e a n e m p ires an d th e ir re p la c e m e n t b y a n u m b e r o f sm a ll sta te s in C e n tra l E u ro p e an d a re g im e in S o v ie t R u ssia c o m m itte d to re v o lu tio n a ry ch a n g e , an d (4) a fter W o rld W a r II w h e n th e g e o g ra p h ic a n d p o litic a l m ap o f E u ro p e w as c h a n g ed o n c e m o re b y th e c o lla p se o f tra d itio n a l E u ro p e a n sta tes an d th e e m e rg e n c e o f th e U S S R an d th e U n ite d S ta te s a s th e d o m in a n t acto rs in E u ro p e a n d th e w o rld T h e c h a n g e s in itia te d d u rin g 1 9 8 9 p ro m ise to h av e c o n se q u e n c es c o m p a ra b le to th o se a sso c ia te d w ith th e fo u r e a rlie r p e rio d s o f re v o lu tio n a ry " r e s tr u c tu r in g " T h o u g h th e e c o n o m ic an d p o litic a l te n sio n s o f fo r ty y e ars o f S o v ie t d o m in a tio n , a u to c ra tic ru le b y lo ca l c o m m u n ist e lite s , an d e c o n o m ic m ism a n a g e m e n t a n d c o rru p tio n h a d b e c o m e in c re a sin g ly a p p a re n t th ro u g h o u t E a ste rn E u ro p e , little o v e rt e v id e n c e w as v isib le m e a rly 1989 th a t e v e n ts o f su c h im p o rt w e re a b o u t to o c cu r— th o u g h so cia l p re ssu res w ere b u ild in g th a t w o u ld e x p lo d e la ter in th e y e a r C e n tra l to th e d ra m a tic ch a n g es th ro u g h o u t th e reg io n th a t re su lted m th e en d o f th e C o ld W a r a n d m th e e s ta b lis h m e n t o f E a ste rn E u ro p e s fir s t n o n -c o m m u n ist g o v e rn m e n ts sin c e th e 1 9 4 0s, w a s th e n e w a ttitu d e o f th e G o rb a ch ev le a d ersh ip to w a rd th e a rea In th e p a st, a n y m o v e m e n t to w a rd refo rm m e t w ith stro n g S o v ie t re sista n c e B y 1 9 8 9 , S o v ie t p o licy h ad sh ifte d to th e p o in t w h ere it e n c o u ra g ed refo rm an d w a s e v e n w illin g to a c ce p t th e re a lity o f e x p a n d e d p lu ra lism an d th e d e m ise o f c o m m u m st d ic ta to rsh ip s as th e p rice fo r e c o n o m ic e ffic ie n c y an d p o litic a l sta b ility in th e re g io n an d e n h a n ce d lo n g -te rm sta b le p o litic a l an d e c o n o m ic re la tio n s h ip s w ith th e W e s t 28 Y e t, th e ra d ic a l ch a n g es th a t o ccu rre d m E aste rn E u ro p e a fte r sp rin g 1 9 89 , m u st b e v ie w e d w ith in th e o v e ra ll fra m e w o rk o f sta te so c ia lism as it h ad b e e n in stitu tio n a liz e d in th e a rea an d o f th e re c e n t e m e rg e n c e o f a u to n o m o u s so c ia l g ro u p s d e m a n d in g an e n d to c o m m u n ist p a rty d o m in a n c e an d a re co g n itio n o f th e rig h ts a n d in te re sts o f " th e p e o p le " A s d e v e lo p e d m th e S o v ie t U n io n in th e 1930s u n d e r S ta lin , a n d in E a ste rn E u ro p e a fter its im p o sitio n m th e la te 1 9 4 0 s, sta te so c ia lism c o n siste d o f a h ig h ly c e n tra liz e d e co n o m y th a t e m p h a siz ed h e a v y in d u stry , a u th o r ita ria n p o litic a l str u c tu re s m e a n t to e n su re p o litica l c o n tro l b y m in isc u le a n d ille g itim a te c o m m u m st p a rty e lite s, a n d a stro n g d e p e n d e n c y o r p a tro n -c lie n t re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e U S S R an d th e sm a lle r c o m m u n ist sta te s o f E a ste rn E u ro p e H o w e v e r, a lm o st im m e d ia te ly a fter S ta lin s d ea th in 19 5 3 an d th ro u g h o u t th e e n sm n g y e a rs e v id e n c e m o u n te d th a t d e m o n stra te d b o th th e p o litic a l a n d th e e c o n o m ic w e a k n e sse s o f th e sy ste m S p o ra d ic a lly , th o u g h g e n e ra lly u n s u c c e ssfu lly u n til 1 989, a ttem p ts w e re m a d e in so m e o f th e 22 v a rio u s c o u n trie s c o n c e rn e d , to refo rm p o rtio n s o f th e sta te so c ia lis t sy ste m in h e rite d fro m S ta lin A fte r th e sig n in g o f th e H e lsin k i A cco rd s o f 1 9 75, o rg a n iz e d m o v em en ts c o m m itted to th e p ro te c tio n o f p o litic a l a n d h u m a n rig h ts w ere a c tiv e (an d u n d e r g re a t p re ssu re ) m a n u m b er o f E u ro p e a n c o m m u n ist sta te s— C o m m itte e fo r W o rk e r s D e fe n se (K O R ) in P o la n d , C h a rte r 7 7 m C z e c h o slo v a k ia , a n d H e lsin k i W a tc h g ro u p s th ro u g h o u t th e re g io n U su a lly th ese g ro u p s b a se d th e ir d e m a n d s fo r p o litic a l re fo rm o n th e c o m m itm e n ts m a d e b y th e ir g o v e rn m e n ts in H elsin k i an d o n th e g u a ra n te es o f th e c o n stitu tio n s o f th e ir re sp ec tiv e states E v id e n c e a lso m o u n te d th ro u g h o u t m u ch o f th e re g io n c o n c e rn in g th e sta g n a tio n o f e c o n o m ic g ro w th an d th e fa c t th a t th e so c ia lis t e c o n o m ie s w ere fa llin g e v e n fu rth e r b e h in d th e ir c a p ita list c o u n te rp a rts, in c lu d in g th o se o f th e E a st A sia n N e w ly In d u stria liz ed C o u n tries (N IC s), m th e d e v e lo p m e n t an d a d a p ta tio n o f m o d e rn tec h n o lo g y to th e p ro d u c tio n p ro c ess In a d d itio n , th e in a b ility o f th e sta te to m e et im p lied so cia l c o m m itm en ts— i e , th e g ro w in g sh o rta g e s o f c o n su m e r g o o d s an d h o u sin g , th e in a b ility to h a lt th e d e g ra d a tio n o f th e e n v iro n m en t, an d re la ted p ro b lem s— c o n trib u te d to in cre a se d d issa tisfa c tio n w ith th e e x istin g p o litica l sy ste m an d to th e d em a n d fo r m a jo r p o litic a l c h a n g e th a t w o u ld ex ten d e ffe ctiv e p a rtic ip a tio n b e y o n d th e n a rro w circle o f th e c o m m u n ist p a rty e lite T h ese a ttitu d e s w e re stre n g th e n ed b y th e g ro w in g a w a ren ess o f th e su c ce ss o f c a p ita list E u ro p e m im p ro v in g liv in g sta n d a rd s E v e n b e fo re th e e m e rg en ce to p o litic a l p ro m in en c e o f M ik h a il G o rb a c h e v an d "n e w th in k in g " in th e U S S R , e v id e n c e e x iste d o f a g ro w in g a w a re n ess o f th e fu n d a m e n ta l n a tu re o f th e p ro b le m s fa c in g c o m m u n ist sta te s , th e im p e ra tiv es (an d p erils) o f in itia tin g e co n o m ic an d p o litic a l re fo rm , a n d th e n e ce ssity o f e x p a n d in g fle x ib ility in re la tio n s b e tw e e n th e U S S R an d its E u ro p e a n a llies T h u s, p rio r to sp rin g 1985 w h en G o rb a c h e v w a s e le c te d th e n e w h ea d o f th e C P S U th e situ a tio n th ro u g h o u t m u ch o f th e re g io n w a s rip e fo r p o litica l c h a n g e H o w e v e r, o n ly sin c e 1985 h a v e th e e ffo rts a t refo rm e x p a n d e d to th e p o in t w h ere o n e ca n sp e a k o f th e d ism a n tlin g o f k ey e lem en ts o f th e tra d itio n a l sta te so c ia list sy ste m — fro m th e d o m in a n c e o f c en tra l p la n n in g to th e e m e rg en ce o f o ffic ia lly sa n c tio n e d p lu ra lism a n d th e d eclin e o f th e d o m in a n t ro le o f th e c o m m u n ist n o m e n k la tu r a S in ce th e G o rb a ch ev refo rm e ffo rt is so v e ry c en tra l to th e re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s th a t h a v e o ccu rre d in E a ste rn E u ro p e , it is im p o rta n t b rie fly to o u tlin e its m o st p ro m in e n t c o n to u rs It is e sse n tia l to rec all th at, w h e n G o rb a ch e v a rriv ed o n th e sce n e in 1 9 8 5 , th e S o v ie t U n io n w a s a lre ad y in th e th ro e s o f a m a jo r crisis In th e e c o n o m ic re alm S o v ie t G ro ss N a tio n a l P ro d u c t (G N P ) h a d sta g n ated — a cco rd in g to k ey e co n o m ic a d v iso r A b el 23 A g a n b eg y a n , rea l g ro w th c ea sed b y th e m id -19 7 0 s P o litic a lly , th e p o p u la tio n g a v e e v id e n c e o f in c re a sin g le v els o f e n n u i an d w ith d ra w a l, a lc o h o lism an d in c o m p e te n t m e d ic a l c are re su lte d in red u ce d life e x p e c ta n cy , e sp e c ia lly a m o n g m a les, a n d in h ig h e r in fa n t m o rta lity ra te s 29 S o v ie t a llie s m E a ste rn E u ro p e w ere su ffe rin g fro m sim ila r p ro b le m s a n d h ad b e c o m e a g ro w in g d ra m o n th e S o v ie t e co n o m y , c lie n ts in th e T h ird W o rld h ad p ro v e n in ca p a b le o f e s ta b lish in g sta b le fu n c tio n in g p o litic a l o r e c o n o m ic sy ste m s an d c o n trib u te d to th e g ro w in g "c o sts o f e m p ire " fo r th e S o v ie t sta te, th e e x p o n e n tia l g ro w th o f S o v ie t m ilita ry c a p a b ilitie s h ad o c c u rred a t th e e x p e n se o f o th e r p o rtio n s o f th e e co n o m y , a n d m a n y o f th e a ssu m p tio n s th a t h ad u n d e rg ird e d S o v ie t fo re ig n p o lic y d u rin g th e B re z h n e v y e a rs h ad p ro v en to b e false It w a s m th is e n v iro n m e n t th a t G o rb a ch e v p ro p o se d d ra m a tic re fo rm s as a m e a n s to re ju v e n a te th e S o v ie t e co n o m ic an d p o litic a l sy ste m In e ffe c t, th e in itia l G o rb a ch e v m e ssa g e ca n b e su m m a riz e d as fo llo w s th e S o v ie t U n io n fin d s its e lf in an e c o n o m ic an d p o litic a l crisis situ a tio n th a t u n d e rm in es its a b ility to p ro v id e b a sic g o o d s an d se rv ic es to its p o p u la tio n an d th rea te n s to e ro d e its p o sitio n as a g lo b a l p o w e r T o d ea l w ith th is p ro b le m , re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s a re re q u ire d w ith in th e e c o n o m y — in c lu d in g d e c e n tra liz a tio n o f d e c is io n -m a k in g , th e e sta b lis h m e n t o f c o m p e titio n w ith in th e sy ste m , th e e m e rg en ce o f e lem en ts o f a m a rk e t e co n o m y , a n d rela te d c h a n g e s o f a c o m p a ra b ly re v o lu tio n a ry c h a ra c ter w ith in th e c o n te x t o f th e S o v ie t e c o n o m y In cre a se d e fficie n c y , e n h a n ce d q u a lity , a n d th e re d u c tio n o f th e te c h n o lo g ic a l g a p w ith th e W e st a re a m o n g th e c en tra l o b je c tiv e s o f th e e c o n o m ic re fo r m S u c h re fo rm s, h o w e v e r, w ill in e v ita b ly c o n fr o n t o p p o sitio n w ith in th e p a rty -sta te b u re a u c ra c y w h ich b en e fits g re a tly fro m th e p e rq u isites a sso c ia te d w ith th e p re s e n t sy ste m T o o v e rc o m e th is o p p o sitio n , g l a s n o s t (o r o p e n n ess) an d d e m o c ra tiz a tio n w ill c re ate a n a llia n c e b e tw e e n th e re fo rm -m m d e d le a d ersh ip an d th e m a sse s o f th e p o p u la tio n aim e d a t e x p o s in g th e c o rru p tio n , in c o m p e te n c e , an d in e ffic ie n c ie s o f th e c u rre n t sy s te m a n d , th u s, c o n trib u tin g to th e su cc ess o f th e refo rm e ffo rt In itia lly , th e re fo re , g l a s n o s t a n d d e m o c ra tiz a tio n w e re v ie w e d m ra th e r n a rro w , in stru m e n ta l te rm s as th e m e a n s to fa c ilita te th e in tro d u ctio n o f ra d ic a l e c o n o m ic re fo rm s T h e re a lso e x iste d th e re a liz a tio n a m o n g m a n y o f th e re fo rm e rs th a t th e c en tra liz a tio n o f p o litic a l p o w e r an d th e a b se n c e o f p o litic a l p a rtic ip a tio n a n d , th u s, p o litic a l re sp o n sib ility , h ad b e en k ey e le m en ts in e x p la in in g th e fa ilu re o f th e S ta lin ist sy ste m T h e se a ttitu d e s c o n trib u ted to th e v ie w th a t th e e n tir e re fo r m m o v e m e n t a lso in c lu d e d a n im p o rta n t p o litic a l c o m p o n e n t th a t w o u ld o p e n a c ce ss to p o litica l d e cisio n -m a k in g to e v e r b ro a d e r seg m e n ts o f th e p o p u la tio n O n th e n e g a tiv e sid e , fro m th e ir p e rsp e c tiv e , th e refo rm le a d e rsh ip u n d e re stim a te d th e d eg re e to w h ich g l a s n o s t a n d d e m o c ra tiz a tio n w o u ld d ev e lo p a life o f th e ir o w n , as th e p o litic a l a g e n d as o f th e m in o rity 24 p o p u la tio n s — L ith u a n ia n s , A rm e n ia n s, U z b e k s, a n d o th e rs — e m e rg e d d iffere n tly fro m th e a g e n d a o f th e refo rm e rs in M o sco w Y et, th is d ev elo p m en t g o e s b ey o n d th e co n tex t o f o u r c u rren t d isc u ssio n , e x c e p t as it rela tes to th e g ro w in g p ressu re s fo r p o litic a l ch a n g e th a t h a v e im p in g e d u p o n G o rb a ch e v a n d h is su p p o rte rs T h u s, p e r e s t r o i k a , o p e n n e ss a n d d e m o c r a tiz a tio n , h a v e b e e n in tim a te ly in te rre la te d e v e r sin c e th e b e g in n in g o f th e G o rb a c h e v re fo rm p ro g ra m M o re o v e r, "n e w th in k in g " an d n e w b e h a v io r in th e fo reig n p o licy h a v e a lso b e en an in teg ral p a rt o f th e G o rb a ch ev re fo rm s F irst, th e n atu re, sco p e, a n d c o st o f d o m e stic refo rm w o u ld re q u ire an in te rn a tio n a l e n v iro n m e n t m w h ich th e S o v ie t le a d e rsh ip w a s n o t c o n ce rn e d w ith a n e w co ld w a r o r a rm s ra ce an d w o u ld b e ab le to d ev o te m o re o f its a tte n tio n to th e issu e s a sso c ia te d w ith refo rm M o reo v e r, th e c o sts o f S o v ie t fo reig n p o licy w o u ld h a v e to b e red u ce d d ra m a tic a lly , g iv en th e e x p a n d e d in v e stm en t d e m a n d s o f a su c ce ssfu l re v ita liz a tio n o f th e e co n o m y S in ce th e p a st c o m m itm e n t o f e x te n siv e re so u rce s to a llies an d c lie n ts in E a ste rn E u ro p e an d th e T h ird W o rld , h ad n o t resu lte d in p o litic a lly sta b le an d e c o n o m ica lly p ro d u c tiv e sta te s, th o se co m m itm e n ts w o u ld h a v e to b e re co n sid e re d an d in m a n y c ases re d u ce d S in ce th e e x p a n sio n o f S o v ie t m ilita ry c a p a b ilitie s an d th e b u ild in g o f b ig g e r an d b e tte r w ea p o n s sy ste m s h ad n o t resu lte d in e x p a n d e d se cu rity , effo rts to a c h iev e se cu rity th ro u g h a c co m m o d a tio n an d a ssu ra n c e stra te g ie s to w a rd th e W est a n d , th u s, to red u ce th e m ilita ry b u rd e n , w o u ld a lso b e e sse n tia l S o v ie t p o lic y sin c e 19 8 5 h as u n d erg o n e m o re th an th a n m e re rh eto ric a l c h a n g e T h e d ra m a tic sh ift in p o sitio n o n a n u m b e r o f k e y issu es c o n c e rn in g n u c lea r w e a p o n s an d a rm s c o n tro l b y th e G o rb a ch ev le a d e rsh ip w a s e sse n tia l to th e a g re e m e n t to scrap all in term e d ia te -ra n g e n u c lea r w e ap o n s m E u ro p e an d A sia T h e a n n o u n c e m e n t m D e ce m b e r 19 8 8 th a t th e U S S R w o u ld u n ila te ra lly re d u c e its m ilita ry stre n g th in c en tra l E u ro p e b y 5 0 ,0 0 0 tro o p s an d u p w a rd s o f 1 ,00 0 tan k s— an d th e o n g o in g im p le m e n ta tio n o f th e fir st sta g e o f th a t w ith d ra w a l, re p resen te d y e t a n o th e r sh ift m S o v ie t se c u rity p o lic y T h ese m o v e s w e re a p p a ren tly m e a n t to a c co m p lish se v e ra l im p o r ta n t o b je ctiv e s F irst, th e y in d ic a te d to th e W e st th a t "n e w th in k in g " in th e fo re ig n an d se cu rity p o licy a rea s w a s m o re th a n rh e to ric , th a t it p re sa g e d a d ra m a tic sh ift m th e w a y m w h ich th e U S S R w o u ld d ea l w ith th e o u tsid e w o rld , m p a rtic u la r, w ith th e c o u n trie s o f E u ro p e S ec o n d ly , th e y w e re m e a n t to e n c o u ra g e th e W e s t to e n te r in to a m u tu a l p ro ce ss o f arm s re d u c tio n A th ird o b je c tiv e c o n c e rn ed th e h o p e th a t a rm s re d u c tio n s, e s p e c ia lly in th e c o n v e n tio n a l a rea , w o u ld e v e n tu a lly b rin g w ith th e m th e e c o n o m ic sa v in g s re q u ired if th e d o m e stic p ro g ra m o f e c o n o m ic re stru c tu r in g a n d refo rm m th e S o v ie t U n io n w a s to su c ce e d A n im p o rta n t c o m p o n en t o f G o rb a ch e v s fo reig n p o lic y in itia tiv e s h a s c o n c e rn ed b ila te ra l re la tio n s w ith th e c o u n trie s o f E aste rn E u ro p e S in c e at 25 le a st 1 987, G o rb a c h e v s re sp o n se to th e g ro w in g e c o n o m ic a n d p o litic a l p ro b lem s o f th e re g io n , as w e ll as to th e e ro sio n o f u n ity an d c o h e sio n w ith in th e so c ia lis t c o m m u n ity , w as to call u p o n th e le a d e rsh ip s o f th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n c o u n trie s to re fo rm th e ir o w n p o litic a l a n d e c o n o m ic sy ste m s U n lik e p a st S o v ie t le a d e rs, G o rb a c h e v a rg u e d th at, u ltim a te ly , th e d ec isio n on re fo rm — as o th e r m a jo r d e c isio n s— m u st b e m a d e b y th e E a ste rn E u ro p e a n s th em se lv e s M o sc o w n o lo n g er v ie w e d its e lf as th e fin a l a rb ite r o f id eo lo g ic a l o rth o d o x y fo r its E a ste rn E u ro p e a n a llies, a c c o rd in g to th e n e w in te rp re ta tio n o f s o c ia lis t in te rn a tio n a lism , a n in te rp re ta tio n v e rifie d b y S o v ie t re a c tio n s to th e re v o lu tio n a r y e v e n ts o f 1989 H ig h -le v el S o v ie t o ffic ia ls h a v e sta te d th a t th e U S S R w a s w ro n g to in te rv e n e m ilita rily in C z e c h o slo v a k ia in 1 9 6 8 , n o n c o m m u n ist g o v e rn m e n ts in P o la n d an d e lsew h e re h a v e b e e n a c c e p te d as p a rtn e rs w ith in th e W a rsa w T re a ty O rg a n iz a tio n , a n d G o rb a c h e v h im s e lf v irtu a lly re n o u n c e d p a st S o v ie t p o lic ie s in sta te m e n ts m a d e d u rin g h is v isits to S tra sb o u rg an d H e lsin k i in A u g u st an d O cto b e r o f 1989 E v e n th e in te g ra tio n o f its k e y E a ste rn E u ro p e an a lly , th e G e rm a n D e m o cra tic R e p u b lic , in to a re u n ite d G e rm a n y , h a s b e en ac ce p ted in p rin cip le In itia lly , it a p p ea rs th a t G o rb a c h e v h o p e d th a t E a st E u ro p e a n c o m m u n ists c o u ld refo rm th e ir e c o n o m ies an d th e ir p o litic a l sy s te m s in a m a n n e r to m ak e th e m v ia b le an d p ro d u c tiv e H o w ev er, g iv e n th e fa ilu re o f E a ste rn E u r o p e a n c o m m u n ists to a c co m p lish th is ta sk a n d th e re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s th a t h a v e b ro u g h t n o n -c o m m u n ist o r c o a litio n g o v e rn m e n ts to p o w e r th ro u g h o u t th e re g io n , h e h a s ac ce p ted th e id e a o f a n E a ste rn E u ro p e c o m p rise d o f sta b le , e c o n o m ic a lly e ffic ie n t, th o u g h n o n -c o m m u n ist, sy ste m s as p re fe ra b le to a c o n tin u a tio n o f th e sta tu s q u o o f th e 1 9 80s T h e e ffo rt to m a in ta in p o litic a lly ille g itim a te a n d e c o n o m ic a lly in e ffic ie n t re g im e s in E a ste rn E u ro p e b y fo rce o r th rea t o f fo rce h as b e e n a b an d o n ed in th e h o p e th a t m u tu a lly b e n e fic ia l re la tio n sh ip s ca n e m erg e in th e fu tu re b e tw e e n th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d E u ro p e s d o m in a n t e c o n o m ic p o w e r, G e r m a n y , a n d a re v ita liz e d se t o f "F m la n d -lik e ' sy ste m s in E a ste rn E u ro p e In a w a y , b y a g re ein g to d ism a n tle its in te rm e d ia te -ra n g e n u c le a r w e a p o n s, a n n o u n c in g u n ila te ra l c u ts m c o n v e n tio n a l w e a p o n s, d e c la rin g its w illin g n e ss to e n g a g e m w id e -ra n g in g n e g o tia tio n s fo r th e re d u c tio n o f stra te g ic n u c le a r w e a p o n s, an d a c ce p tin g th e "n e w o r d e r " e m e rg in g m E aste rn E u ro p e as a re su lt o f th e re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s o f 1 9 8 9 , th e S o v ie ts h av e c h a lle n g ed th e v e ry e x iste n c e o f th e E u ro p e an se cu rity re g im e th a t h a s b e en in p la c e fo r m o re th an th irty y e ars T h e o p p o rtu n ity n o w e x ists o f fo rg in g c ro ss-a llia n c e a g re e m e n ts th a t is a lrea d y re su ltin g m a d ra m a tic lo w e rm g o f th e le v e l o f o v e rt h o stility in U S -S o v ie t an d E a st-W e st re la tio n s a n d m th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f a n ew E u ro p e a n se cu rity re g im e m w h ich th e d iv isio n s o f E u ro p e m ig h t b e a p p rec ia b ly red u c ed T h e d ra m a tic c h a n g e s th a t h a v e o c cu rred m th e U S S R , in E a ste rn E u ro p e , a n d in E a st-W e st re la tio n s a n d h a v e led to a c h a n g in g E u ro p e an 26 in te rn a tio n a l se c u rity sy stem , are th e re su lt o f b o th th e d o m e stic im p e ra tiv e s o f th e c o m m u n ist p o litic a l sy stem s an d th e C o ld W a r e n v iro n m e n t in w h ich th ey d ev e lo p e d T h e C o ld W a r, d efin ed in p a rt as th e e m e rg e n c e in E u ro p e o f a sta b le se cu rity re g im e th a t p rev en ted w ar b e ca u se o f th e d a n g ers o f e sc a la tio n to n u c le a r c o n fro n ta tio n , w as a n e ce ssa ry c o n d itio n fo r th e re ce n t re v o lu tio n a ry c h a n g e s th a t h av e o c cu rred m E u ro p e It c re ate d an in te rn a tio n a l e n v ir o n m e n t in w h ich c o m p e titio n w a s d iv e rte d to a re as o f p e r ip h e ra l c o n c e rn fo r b o th su p e rp o w e rs, th o u g h an e n v ir o n m e n t in w h ic h e v e r g re a te r am o u n ts o f m ilita ry c a p a b ilities w e re b e in g c re ate d an d g re a te r stre ss p la ce d o n d o m e stic e co n o m ies A t th e sam e tim e, h o w e v e r, w ith in b o th a llia n c e sy ste m s, d o m e stic , p o litic a l, an d e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n ts ra n th e ir o w n c o u rse In th e W e st, e x te n siv e p o litica l an d e co n o m ic c o o p e ra tio n c o n trib u te d to an u n p re c e d e n te d e x p a n sio n o f b o th e c o n o m ic w e lfa re a n d p o litic a l p a r tic ip a tio n In th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d E a ste rn E u ro p e , th e e x p e rim e n t m a p p lie d M a rx ism -L en in ism p ro v ed to b e a fa ilu re B y th e 1980s, cen tralize d e c o n o m ie s c o u ld n o lo n g er p ro v id e a d eq u ately fo r th e w e lfa re o f th e ir p o p u la tio n s (e sp e c ia lly w h e n c o m p ared w ith th e a lm o st u n b rid le d e c o n o m ic su c ce sse s o f W e stern sta tes) an d w ere faced w ith e v e r g re a te r d e m a n d s fo r rea l p o litic a l p a rtic ip a tio n In m an y resp e cts G e o rg e K e n n a n s p re d ic tio n o f th e in te rn a l n o n -v ia b ility o f th e S ta lin ist p o litic a l-e c o n o m ic m o d e l h a s p ro v e n to be accu ra te 30 A s re c e n t d e v e lo p m e n ts m b o th E a ste rn E u ro p e a n d th e S o v ie t U m o n itse lf im p ly , a re d u c tio n in c en tra liz e d , a u th o rita ria n c o n tro l w ith in th e S o v ie t b lo c w ill n o t n e c e ssa rily re su lt in in crea sed lo ca l sta b ility T ra d itio n a l c o n flic ts— as th o se b e tw e e n M a g y ars an d R o m a n ia n s, B u lg a ria n s an d T u rk s— m a y w e ll in c rea se, as th e h e a v y h a n d o f S o v ie t c o n tro l h a s re la x e d H o w e v e r, a ssu m in g th a t th e W e st d o e s n o t a ttem p t to in te rv e n e in su c h c o n flic ts to th e d isa d v a n ta g e o f th e U S S R , th e y n eed n o t re su lt m e x p a n d e d su p e rp o w e r c o n flic t T h e p a st fo rty -fiv e y e ars h a v e w itn esse d a c o m p etitio n fo r p o w e r an d in flu e n c e b e tw e e n th e S o v ie t U n io n a n d th e U m te d S ta te s w h ich b e g a n m E a st-C e n tra l E u ro p e an d th en e x p a n d e d to c o v e r m o st o f th e g lo b e In th e p ro ce ss o f p u rsu in g th a t c o n flic t, th e tw o c o u n trie s h av e e x p e n d e d a tre m e n d o u s a m o u n t o f e ffo rt an d c a p a b ilitie s T h ey h a v e c o n trib u te d to th e e x a c e rb a tio n o f re g io n a l c o n flicts an d to th e m ilita riz a tio n o f o th er so c ie tie s T h ey h av e a lso c o m e to th e b rin k o f n u c lea r d isa ste r o n o c c a sio n , su c h as d u rin g th e C u b an M issile C risis T h e y are n o w fa ce d w ith th e p o ssib ility o f re so lv in g a t le a st so m e o f th e ir o u tsta n d in g d iffe ren ce s an d b u ild in g u p o n th e sta b ility o f th e re la tio n sh ip s th a t h a v e e x iste d in E u ro p e S e rio u s c o m m o n p ro b le m s face b o th c o u n trie s— fro m th e th rea ts o f n u c lea r d e stru c tio n an d e n v iro n m e n ta l d e g ra d a tio n to th e se c u rity d an g e rs th a t m ig h t e m e rg e fro m th e u n re q u ite d d e m a n d s o f so m e o f th e less d e v e lo p e d c o u n tries E ffo rts to 27 so lv e th e se a n d o th e r p ro b lem s m a y a lso c o n trib u te to an e n h a n c e d le v e l o f c o o p e ra tio n in th e n a rro w e r, o r c o -v a lu a tio n a l, se n se o f th e te rm In su m , w e c u rre n tly liv e in a p erio d w h e n d ra m a tic c h a n g e s in U S S o v ie t re la tio n s a re p o ssib le C o o p e ra tio n , in th e sen se o f a g re em en ts b a se d o n sh a re d v a lu e s, se em s m o re fe a sib le n o w th an it h a s b e e n in th e p a st T h is d o es n o t m e a n th a t th e tw o m a jo r g lo b al p o w e rs w ill n o t c o n tin u e to co m p e te an d th a t th e ir o b je ctiv e s w ill n o t c o m e in to c o n flic t w ith o n e a n o th e r W h a t it d o e s m e a n is th e p o ssib ility , e sp ec ia lly in E u ro p e , o f e x p a n d in g th e a ren a m w h ic h th e ir in te re sts c o in c id e 28 N o te s 1 F o r e x p a n sio n o n th is p o in t see R ic h a rd D V in e, In tr o d u c tio n , an d T h e S o u rce s o f W e ste rn P o lic ie s, m R ic h a rd D V in e (ed ), S o v i e t - E a s t E u r o p e a n R e l a t i o n s a s a P r o b l e m f o r t h e W e s t (L o n d o n / N e w Y o r k C ro o m H e lm , 1 9 87 ), p p 5 , 9 -1 1 , see , a lso , A W D e P o rte , E u r o p e B e t w e e n t h e S u p erpow ers T h e E n d u r i n g B a l a n c e (N e w H a v e n /L o n d o n Y a le U n iv e rs ity P ress, 1979), p p 165-66 2 S e e , fo r e x a m p le , th e cla ssic tre a tm e n t o f th e p ro ce ss in H u g h S eto n W a tso n , T h e E a s t E u r o p e a n R e v o l u t i o n (N e w Y o rk F re d e r ic k A P ra e g e r, 1 9 5 6 ), 3 rd e d S e e , a lso , Z b ig n ie w B rz e z m sk i, T h e S o v i e t B l o c U n i t y a n d C o n f l i c t (C a m b rid g e H a rv a rd U n iv e rsity P re ss, 1 9 6 7 ), rev ed n 3 S e e V o jte c h M a stn y , R u s s i a C o lu m b ia U n iv e rsity P ress, 1979) s R o a d to t h e C o ld (N e w Y o rk W ar 4 C h a rle s G a ti, F ro m C o ld W a r O rig in s to D ete n te In tro d u c tio n to th e In te rn a tio n a l P o litics o f E a stern E u ro p e , in C h a rle s G a ti (ed ), T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s o f E a s t e r n E u r o p e (N ew Y o rk P ra e g e r, 1 9 7 6 ), p 6, G e ir L u n d e sta d , T h e A m e r i c a n N o n - P o l i c y T o w a r d s E a s t e r n E u r o p e , 1 9 4 3 - 1 9 4 7 U m v ersah sm in an A rea N ot o f E s s e n t ia l I n t e r e s t to th e U n ited S ta tes (T ro m so / O s lo / B erg en U m v e rsite tsfo rla g et, 1 9 7 8 ), e sp p p 4 1 9 -4 2 4 5 T h e fo llo w in g d isc u ssio n o f S o v ie t o b jec tiv es d ra w s o n Ja m es F B ro w n , S o v ie t In te re sts a n d P o licie s in E a ste rn E u ro p e , m R ic h a rd D V in e (ed ), S o v i e t - E a s t E u r o p e a n R e l a t i o n s a s a P r o b l e m f o r t h e W e s t (L o n d o n / N e w Y o rk C ro o m H e lm , 1 9 8 7 ), p p 4 3 -4 5 , an d S a ra h M e ik le jo h n T e rry , T h e S o v ie t U n io n an d E aste rn E u ro p e Im p lica tio n s o f U S P o licy , m D an C a ld w e ll (ed ), S o v i e t I n t e r n a t i o n a l B e h a v i o r a n d U S P o l i c y O p t i o n s (L ex in g to n , M A / T o ro n to L e xin g to n B o o k s 1 9 8 5 ), p p 11 -26 6 T e rry , T h e S o v ie t U n io n a n d E aste rn E u ro p e , p 31 7 O n th e e v o lu tio n o f th e p o lic y o f d iffe re n tia tio n see C h a rle s G a ti, H u n g a r y a n d t h e S o v i e t B l o c (D u rh a m D u k e U n iv e r sity P re ss, 1 9 8 6 ), p p 2 1 9 2 2 0 , B e n n e tt K o v n g , T h e M y t h o f L i b e r a t i o n E a s t - C e n t r a l E u r o p e in U S D ip lo m a c y a n d P o litic s s in c e 1 9 4 1 (B a lt im o r e / L o n d o n T h e Jo h n s H o p k in s U n iv e r sity P re ss, 1 9 7 3 ), p a s s i m , an d Jo h n L e w is G a d d is, S t r a t e g i e s o f C o n ta in m e n t P o lic y A C r itic a l A p p r a is a l (N ew Y o r k / O x fo rd o f P o stw a r A m e r ic a n N a tio n a l S e c u rity O x fo rd U n iv e rsity P ress, 1 9 8 2 ), e sp p p 65-71 8 Z b ig n ie w B rz ez m sk i an d W illia m E G r iffith , P e a ce fu l E n g a g e m e n t in E a ste rn E u ro p e , F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , v o i 3 9 , n o 4 (1 9 6 1 ), p 6 4 2 , see , a lso , B en n e tt 29 K o v rig , T h e U n ite d S ta te s T h e In te r n a tio n a l P o lit ic s 9 S ee G a ti, P e a ce fu l E n g a g e m e n t R e v isite d , in G a ti (ed ), E u r o p e , p p 1 3 1 -1 5 3 o f E a stern H u n g a r y a n d t h e S o v ie t B lo c , p p 1 1 2 -11 5 10 A n e x c e lle n t a n a ly tic tre a tm e n t o f th e crisis a p p e a rs in H a n n e s A d o m e it, S o v i e t R i s k - T a k i n g a n d C r i s i s B e h a v i o r A T h e o r e tic a l a n d E m p i r i c a l A n a l y s i s (L o n d o n / B o sto n G e o rg e A lle n & U n w in , 1 9 8 2 ), p p 6 7 182 S e e , a lso , A v i S h la im , T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d t h e B e r l i n B l o c k a d e , 1 9 4 8 1948 A S t u d y i n C r i s i s D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g ( B e r k e le y / L o s A n g e le s / L o n d o n U m v e rsity o f C a lifo rn ia P re ss, 1 9 8 3 ), e sp p p 4 0 2 -4 0 3 11 12 103 Ib id p p 170-171 C ite d in B ru n o K re isk y , D ie H e r a u s fo r d e r u n g (D u s se ld o rf E c o n , 1 9 6 3 ), p 13 S ee K u rt S tern er, N e g o tia tio n s fo r an A u stria n S ta te T r e a ty , in A le x a n d e r L G e o rg e , P h ilip J F a rley , an d A lex a n d e r D a llin (ed s ) , U S - S o v i e t S e c u r ity C o o p e r a tio n A c h ie v e m e n ts , F a ilu r e s , L e s s o n s (N e w Y o r k / O x fo rd O x fo rd U n iv ersity P re ss, 1988), p p 106-122 14 S e e , D e P o r te , 15 T h e fo llo w in g d is c u ssio n b e n e fits g re a tly fro m A d o m e it, C r i s i s B e h a v i o r , e sp p p 183-311 E u rope B etw een th e S u p erp ow ers, pp 1 6 5 -1 6 6 S o v ie t R is k - T a k in g a n d 16 T h e o d o re C S o re n se n , p p 5 93 -59 4 K en n edy (N ew Y o rk H a rp e r an d R o w , 1 9 6 5 ), 17 T h is d is c u s sio n d ra w s o n K a re n D a w ish a , T h e K r e m l i n a n d t h e P r a g u e (B e r k e le y / L o n d o n U m v e rsity o f C a lifo rn ia P ress, 1 984), G a lla G o la n , R e fo r m R u le in C z e c h o s lo v a k ia , 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 6 9 (C a m b rid g e C a m b rid g e U n iv e r sity P re ss, 1 9 7 3 ), H G o rd o n S k illin g , C z e c h o s l o v a k i a s I n t e r r u p t e d R e v o lu tio n (P rin c e to n P rin c e to n U n iv e rsity P re ss, 1976) S p r in g 18 T h is d isc u ssio n d ra w s u p o n R o g er E K a n e t T h e P o lish C risis an d P o la n d s A llie s T h e S o v ie t an d E a st E u ro p e an R e sp o n se to E v e n ts in P o la n d , m Ja c k B ie la sia k a n d M a u ric e D S im o n (ed s ), P o l i s h P o l i t i c s E d g e o f t h e A b y s s (N e w Y o rk P ra e g e r, 1 9 8 4 ), p p 3 1 7 -3 4 4 , T h o m a s M C y n k m , S o v i e t a n d A m e r i c a n S i g n a l l i n g i n t h e P o l i s h C r i s i s (L o n d o n M a c m illa n P re ss, 1 9 8 8), S id n e y I P lo ss, M o s c o w a n d t h e P o l i s h C r i s i s A n I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f S o v i e t P o l i c i e s a n d I n t e n t i o n s (B o u ld e r / L o n d o n W e s tv ie w , 1 9 8 6 ), an d A rth u r R R a c h w a ld , P o l a n d B e t w e e n t h e S u p e r p o w e r s S e c u rity v s E c o n o m i c R e c o v e r y (B o u ld e r W e s tv ie w , 198 3 ) 30 19 Jo h n L G a d d is, T h e E v o lu tio n o f U S P o lic y G o a ls T o w a rd th e U S S R in th e P o stw a r E ra , in S e w e ry n B ia ler an d M ich a el M a n d e lb a u m (ed s ), G o r b a c h e v s R u s s ia a n d A m e r ic a n F o r e ig n P o lic y (B o u ld e r, C O / W e stv ie w P ress, 1988), p 3 2 7 20 O n th e ro le o f E astern E u ro p e in th e T h ird W o rld , fo r e x a m p le , see R o g er E K a n e t, E a stern E u ro p e an d th e T h ird W o rld T h e E x p a n d in g R e la tio n s h ip , in M ich a el J S o d a ro a n d S h a ro n L W o lc h ik , e d s , F o r e i g n D o m e s tic P o lic y in E astern E u r o p e in th e 1 9 8 0 s T ren d s a n d and P ro sp ects (L o n d o n M a c m illa n , N e w Y o rk S t M a rtin s, 1 9 8 3 ), p p 2 3 4 -2 5 9 21 S u p e rp o w e r c o m p e titiv e re la tio n sh ip s a t th e re g io n a l le v e l c a n b e d iv id e d in to th re e b a sic ty p es 1) th o se m reg io n s in w h ich o n e su p e rp o w e r h a s d o m in a n t in te re sts, w h ile th e in te re sts o f th e o th e r a re n o n e x iste n t o r m in im a l, su c h as E a ste rn E u ro p e o r L a tin A m e ric a , 2) th o se re g io n s in w h ich n e ith e r su p e rp o w e r h a s v ita l in te rests, su ch as m u ch o f A fric a , an d 3) th o se m re g io n s w h ich b o th su p e rp o w e rs c o n sid e r e sse n tia l to th e ir v ita l in te rests, su ch as th e M id d le E a st O n th e su b re g io n al lev e l, it is p o ssib le th a t th e in te rests o f th e c lie n t o f a su p e rp o w e r m a y d ra w th e la tte r in to re g io n a l c o m m itm e n ts w h ich o th e rw ise m ig h t b e c o n sid ere d o u tsid e its m a jo r c o n c ern s F o r a slig h tly d ifferen t c a teg o riza tio n see A lex a n d er L G e o rg e , C risis P re v e n tio n R ee x a m in e d , in A lex a n d e r L G e o rg e (ed ), M a n a g i n g U S -S o v ie t R iv a lr y P r o b l e m s o f C r i s i s P r e v e n t i o n (B o u ld e r, C O W e stv ie w P ress, 1 979), p 381 O n th e u se fu ln e ss o f th e c o n c e p t o f sp h e re s o f in flu e n c e see R o g er E K a n e t, E sfera s d e In flu e n cia d e la P o lìtica E x te rio r S o v ie tic a , F o r o I n t e r n a c i o n a l , v o i 14, n o 2 (1 9 7 3 ), p p 2 2 0 -2 3 4 , an d B e n n e tt K o v n g , S p h eres o f In flu e n c e A R e a ssessm e n t, S u r v e y , n o 7 0 /7 1 (1 9 6 9 ), p p 1 0 2 -12 0 D u rin g th e p a s t tw o y e a rs o fficia l S o v ie t v iew s o f E a ste rn E u ro p e h av e c h a n g e d m a rk e d ly S ee n o te 2 8, b elo w 22 T h is c o in c id e s w ith A le x a n d e r G e o rg e s fin d in g s O u r m o d e l a lso su g g e sts th a t situ a tio n s o f p ro n o u n c e d in te re st a sy m m e try fa v o rin g o n e sid e o r th e o th e r sh o u ld len d th em se lv e s to d e v e lo p m e n t o f n o rm s, if n o t a lso ru le s o f e n g a g e m e n t, th a t re fle c t th a t d isp a rity o f in te re st W h e n o n e su p e rp o w e r p e rc e iv e s th a t th e o th e r sid e s in te re sts are m u ch m o re stro n g ly en g a g ed in a p a rtic u la r a rea th an its o w n , th e first p o w e r sh o u ld m o d e ra te th e o b j e c t i v e s it w ill p u rsu e in th a t a rea a n d /o r th e m e a n s it w ill e m p lo y o n th e ir b e h a lf G e o rg e , C risis P r e v e n tio n R ee x a m in e d , p 3 8 4 31 23 F o r an a rg u m e n t in fa v o r o f lin k a g e m p o lic y to w a rd th e U S S R d e v e lo p e d se v e ra l y e ars la te r, see H elm u t S o n n e n feld t, L in k a g e A S tra te g y fo r T e m p e rin g S o v ie t A n ta g o n ism s , N A T O R e v i e w , X X V II, n o 1 (19 79 ), p p 3 -5 ,2 1 24 A c c o rd in g to B ia le r th e m o st im p o rta n t o f th e se ru le s are a v o id e x tre m e b e h a v io r, e sp e c ia lly d ire c t m ilita ry in te r v e n tio n in th e o th e r s d ec la re d o r reco g n iz e d sp h eres o f in flu e n c e , a ct w ith re stra in t w h ere th e v ita l in te rests o f e ith e r su p e rp o w e r are in v o lv ed , a v o id d ire c t c o n fro n ta tio n o r c o n ta c t o f m ilita ry fo rc e s, an d d ise n g a g e w h e n su c h co n fro n ta tio n o r c o n ta ct see m s p ro b a b le , a v o id c o rn e rin g th e o th e r sid e , an d lea v e o p e n to it a face sa v in g w a y o u t w h en a d irec t c o n fro n ta tio n o ccu rs , a v o id in flic tin g a d e fe at o n a su p e rp o w e r s a lly so c a ta stro p h ic as to h u m ilia te th e su p e rp o w e r itse lf , a v o id e v e n th e m o st lim ite d (ì e , ta ctica l) u se o f n u c lea r w e ap o n s a g a in st a n y o p p o n en t , e n g a g e in n o n p u b lic c o n su lta tio n s, e v en a t tim e s o f h ig h ly stra in e d re la tio n s, a b o u t th e su p e rp o w e rs in te n tio n s w ith re g a rd to a rea s o r issu es o f h ig h co n fro n ta tio n al p o te n tia l c o n tin u e, e x c e p t fo r sh o rt in te rv a ls, to n e g o tia te o n a rm s c o n tro l e v en in th e fa ce o f g re a t d ifficu ltie s in th e o v e ra ll p o litic a l re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e su p e rp o w e rs , an d re a ch e x p lic it a g re e m en ts c re a tin g m e ch a n ism s th a t w o u ld c o n trib u te to th e d e -e sc a la tio n o f p o te n tia l c o n fro n ta tio n a l in c id e n ts G e o rg e s listin g o f th e ru les o f p ru d e n ce rests o n w h a t h e c o n sid e rs th e sin g le b a sic ru le , th a t n e ith e r su p e rp o w e r sh a ll in itia te m ilita ry a c tio n a g a in st th e fo rce s o f th e o th e r su p e rp o w e r F ro m th is ru le can b e d eriv ed o th e r, se c o n d a ry ru les o f b e h a v io r n e ith e r su p e rp o w e r sh a ll e x p lo it its a d v a n ta g e in a crisis to im p o se o n th e o th e r a p o lic y d ilem m a b e tw e e n b a c k in g d o w n m d efea t o r d esp arate ly in itia tin g th e u se o f fo rce 32 ea ch su p e rp o w e r sh a ll o p erate w ith g re a t re stra in t m its p o licie s an d a c tio n s to w a rd s areas o f v ital in te re st to th e o th e r su p erp o w e r n e ith e r su p e rp o w e r sh a ll p e rm it a re g io n a l a lly to d ra g it in to a c o n fro n ta tio n o r sh o o tin g w a r w ith th e o th e r su p e rp o w e r e a ch su p e rp o w e r sh a ll a c ce p t m ilita ry in te rv e n tio n b y th e o th e r su p e rp o w e r m a re g io n a l c o n flict if su c h in te rv e n tio n b e c o m e s n e c e ssa ry to p re v e n t th e o v e rw h e lm in g d e fe a t o f a re g io n a l ally , m o r e o v e r, in o rd e r to re m o v e th e o th e r su p e rp o w e r s in c e n tiv e to in te rv e n e in su c h a situ a tio n , ea ch su p e rp o w e r sh a ll a c c e p t re sp o n sib ility for p re ssu rin g its reg io n a l a lly to sto p sh o rt o f in flic tin g su c h a d e fe a t o n its lo ca l o p p o n e n t S e w e ry n B ia le r, L e sso n s o f H isto ry S o v ie t-A m e ric a n R e la tio n s m th e P o stw a r E ra , in A rn o ld L H o re lick (ed ), U S - S o v i e t R e l a t i o n s T he N ex t P hase (Ith a c a / L o n d o n C o rn e ll U n iv e rsity P re ss, 1 986), p 9 1 , an d A lex an d e r L G e o rg e , U S -S o v ie t E ffo rts to C o o p e ra te in C risis M a n a g e m e n t an d C risis A v o id a n c e , in G e o rg e , F a rley , an d D a llm (ed s ), U S - S o v i e t S e c u r i t y C o o p e r a t i o n , p p 5 8 3 -5 8 4 25 S e c re ta ry o f S tate Ja m es B a k er, P o in ts o f M u tu al A d v an ta g e 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fu tu re B u t th is is e x clu siv e ly th e a ffa ir o f th e p eo p le o f th a t co u n try and is th e ir ch o ice A n y in te rferen ce m th e d o m e stic a ffairs a n d a n y a ttem p ts to r e stric t th e so v e re ig n ty o f sta te s— frien d s, a llies, an d o th e rs— a re in a d m issib le P r a v d a , 7 Ju ly 1989 In O cto b er, d u rin g a v isit to H e lsin k i, h e re p e a te d th is a r g u m e n t a n d se t u p S o v ie t-F m m sh re la tio n s as a m o d e l fo r re la tio n s b e tw e e n a b ig co u n try an d a sm a ll c o u n try , a m o d e l o f re la tio n s b e tw e e n sta te s w ith d ifferen t so cia l sy ste m s, a m o d e l o f re la tio n s b e tw e e n n e ig h b o rs N Y T , 26 O cto b e r 1989, p 7 S e e, a lso , V la d im ir V K u sm , 33 M ik h a il G o rb a c h e v s E v o lv in g A ttitu d e to E a ste rn E u ro p e , (20 Ju ly 1989), p p 1-12 RFER RAD B R /1 2 8 29 T h e fo llo w in g d isc u ssio n b o rro w s fro m a n u m b er o f so u 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