Carlisle Moody
College of William and Mary, Economics, Faculty Member
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Seventeen states have passed Red Flag or Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) laws which allow police, family members, individuals living in the same residence, and others to file a petition for a court order temporarily seizing the... more
Seventeen states have passed Red Flag or Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) laws which allow police, family members, individuals living in the same residence, and others to file a petition for a court order temporarily seizing the firearms of persons accused to be a danger to themselves or others. The theory is that some individuals could pose a danger to themselves and others that could be made worse by the presence of firearms. Therefore, a policy that denied the individual access to their firearms, if only temporarily, might indeed save lives. However, it is possible that these laws could increase homicide or suicide. If a troubled person is aware of the existence of a Red Flag law, he or she may well not seek help because of the threat of an ERPO. Also, the enforcement of the orders could also have perverse consequences. Two states have considerable experience with ERPO’s: Connecticut, since1999, and Indiana since 2005. We use synthetic controls and difference in differences methods to evaluate these laws. The experience in both Connecticut and Indiana is that red flag laws have had no significant effect on either homicide or suicide. We also find that ERPO laws have had no significant effect on deaths or injuries from mass public shootings.
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Volunteer attorney programs use temporarily assigned attorneys to decide civil appeals. They are a combination of the traditional commissioner system and the recent emphasis on volunteerism to address societal problems. We studied the... more
Volunteer attorney programs use temporarily assigned attorneys to decide civil appeals. They are a combination of the traditional commissioner system and the recent emphasis on volunteerism to address societal problems. We studied the effectiveness of programs in the Arizona and New Mexico intermediate appellate courts by using a variety of evaluation procedures. The New Mexico program increased the volume of
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Fixed effects panel data models are not immune to problems caused by nonstationarity. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that OLS standard errors invariably fail to generate significance tests with correct size when either or both of... more
Fixed effects panel data models are not immune to problems caused by nonstationarity. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that OLS standard errors invariably fail to generate significance tests with correct size when either or both of the regressors are I(1). Clustered standard errors generate correct standard errors if the number of groups is 50 or more and the number of time series observations are 25 or more. With respect to unbalanced models in which an I(1) variable is regressed on an I(0) variable or vice-versa, clustering the standard errors will generate correct standard errors, but not for small values of N and T. We find that neither OLS nor clustered standard errors generate reliably sized significance tests in the case of heterogeneous panels in which the dependent variable, the independent variable, or both are mixes of stationary and nonstationary groups. This could be important given the well-known weakness of unit root tests and the fact that rejecting the null hypothesis in a panel unit root test implies only that one or more of the groups are stationary. First differencing is a simple solution, in which case OLS standard errors are preferred. However, first differences generate a short run model. For estimation in levels, clustered standard errors for relatively large N and T and a simulation or bootstrap approach for smaller samples appears to be the best method for significance tests in fixed effects models in the presence of nonstationary time series.
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The Mini-Macroeconomic Model (MINMAC) is the macroeconomic component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS). It provides forecasts of deviations from a given base case for eight important macroeconomic variables utilized by... more
The Mini-Macroeconomic Model (MINMAC) is the macroeconomic component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS). It provides forecasts of deviations from a given base case for eight important macroeconomic variables utilized by IFFS for energy demand forecasts: real Gross National Product (GNP), price level, disposable income, unemployment, housing starts, manufacturing output, the interest rate on corporate bonds, and the mortgage rate. Such projections must be repeatedly computed in the course of using IFFS. In the past, such projections were prepared using relatively cumbersome and expensive large macroeconomic models. MINMAC was developed to simplify this computational process and is primarily intended to be used as a module of IFFS. The model is a linear econometric approximation of a large-scale macroeconometric model, the Annual Scenario Model developed by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI). The model is estimated on pseudodata generated by simulating the DRI Model over several years using various assumptions concerning domestic and foreign energy prices. Ordinary least squares regressions of each of the eight simulated variables on the assumed energy prices yields the linear approximation used in the model. The national model includes one submodel, the Industrial Output module. This module uses elasticities estimated from historical data to translate changes inmore » overall manufacturing output predicted by MINMAC into implied changes in manufacturing industries at the two-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These changes are then allocated to states and regions using historically estimated ratios of the Regional Sharing (REGSHR) model. 1 figure, 4 tables.« less
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We investigate a short-term forecasting and simulation model of utility fuel demand based on the linear logit model. The forecasting properties of the model are surprisingly good for such a simple econometric model of factor demand. The... more
We investigate a short-term forecasting and simulation model of utility fuel demand based on the linear logit model. The forecasting properties of the model are surprisingly good for such a simple econometric model of factor demand. The model ignores the distinctive characteristics of electric utilities (load curves, wheeling, etc.) yet produces remarkably good forecasts at both the national and regional
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This is an econometric study of factors behind filing growth since 1970 in state trial courts and, especially, appellate courts. The model posits two categories of variables: those affecting the supply of disputes and those affecting the... more
This is an econometric study of factors behind filing growth since 1970 in state trial courts and, especially, appellate courts. The model posits two categories of variables: those affecting the supply of disputes and those affecting the costbenefit considerations of potential litigants. The study uses a pooled time-seriescross-section design and a fixed-effects regression procedure. The overall conclusion is that factors
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This project investigates the efficacy of three gun control laws: background checks for private sales, large capacity magazine bans, and stand your ground laws.
The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title:
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In developing an economic-sociological theory of air quality, we begin from the assumption that the underlying causes of air pollution are economic growth and changing social organization. Development of such a model is desirable for at... more
In developing an economic-sociological theory of air quality, we begin from the assumption that the underlying causes of air pollution are economic growth and changing social organization. Development of such a model is desirable for at least two reasons. First, the potential hazards of air pollution are so great that a model that predicts air pollution levels for metropolitan areas is greatly needed. Further refinements of work in this direction, including the model developed below, will enable more accurate predictions to be made. Second, a model that identifies the underlying causes of air pollution will allow us to estimate more accurately the true costs of air pollution abatement and further economic growth. Both aspects of this research will be of interest to planners who are considering the impact of certain economic activities in new towns and growing regions. The results will also be of interest to social scientists sutdying the impact of community structure on environmenta...
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Adam Lankford (2016) asserted that the United States accounted for 31 percent of the world’s public mass shooters over the 47 years from 1966 to 2012. The news media around the globe widely publicized Lankford’s claim as soon as he... more
Adam Lankford (2016) asserted that the United States accounted for 31 percent of the world’s public mass shooters over the 47 years from 1966 to 2012. The news media around the globe widely publicized Lankford’s claim as soon as he started circulating his unpublished paper in 2015. Yet, despite numerous requests from researchers and the news media over four years, Lankford refused to provide a list of his cases or explain how he compiled them (see Lott 2018b). In responding to our research (Lott and Moody 2019), Lankford (2019) finally provided an appendix listing the 292 cases upon which he says he based his 2016 article. The extreme difference between his findings and ours, we now know, is driven by Lankford not following the definitions that he says that he was using. While we are still missing the data for the regressions that he ran for his 2016 paper, we at least now know what cases his sample included and excluded. Lankford (2016, 190–191) claimed that he followed the FBI, De...
A review of the literature studying the effect of right-to-carry laws shows that the weight of evidence indicates that such laws reduced violent crime. However, more recent studies, using more recent data, tend to find that these laws... more
A review of the literature studying the effect of right-to-carry laws shows that the weight of evidence indicates that such laws reduced violent crime. However, more recent studies, using more recent data, tend to find that these laws cause increases in various kinds of violent crime, raising the possibility that circumstances have changed since 2000, causing these laws to become detrimental. We suggest that these recent studies, which do not use all the available data, are seriously compromised because they compare states that only recently have adopted right-to-carry laws with states that have had these laws for many years, instead of comparing against states with more restrictive laws. Early adopting states experienced relatively large reductions in crime corresponding to large increases in the number of right-to-carry permits. Late adopting states passed rules making it difficult to obtain permits and exercise the right to carry concealed weapons. Ignoring the fact that these la...
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The rights to explore and develop the petroleum reserves of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) are sold to private companies via sealed bid auction. The bid is a cash payment or "bonus bid" paid to the government in exchange for... more
The rights to explore and develop the petroleum reserves of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) are sold to private companies via sealed bid auction. The bid is a cash payment or "bonus bid" paid to the government in exchange for the right to drill.' Until April 1983, the auctions were organized according to a set of procedures known as "nomination and tract selection." Under these rules, potential bidders would nominate tracts of land that they wanted to bid on. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the Department of the Interior would select tracts from those nominated, evaluate them to determine a reservation price or "presale value," and offer them for lease. After April 1983, the Department of the Interior implemented a new set of procedures known as "areawide leasing." Instead of relying on bidders to nominate tracts of land, MMS began to offer vast areas of OCS land at each sale. The result was a large increase in the number of tracts offered for sale in areawide sales
Research Interests: Business, Economics, Land economics, Applied Economics, Lease, and 3 moreNomination, Payment, and Cash
... ROB-ERT B. ARCHIBALD CLYDE A. HAULMAN CARLISLE E. MOODY, JR ... Using the standardtest for differences between two correlation coefficients, we find that the dif-ference ... Total advertising expenditures in the three magazines... more
... ROB-ERT B. ARCHIBALD CLYDE A. HAULMAN CARLISLE E. MOODY, JR ... Using the standardtest for differences between two correlation coefficients, we find that the dif-ference ... Total advertising expenditures in the three magazines dropped from 13.37 million dollars in the six ...
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We investigate a short-term forecasting and simulation model of utility fuel demand based on the linear logit model. The forecasting properties of the model are surprisingly good for such a simple econometric model of factor demand. The... more
We investigate a short-term forecasting and simulation model of utility fuel demand based on the linear logit model. The forecasting properties of the model are surprisingly good for such a simple econometric model of factor demand. The model ignores the distinctive characteristics of electric utilities (load curves, wheeling, etc.) yet produces remarkably good forecasts at both the national and regional
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... By CARLISLE E. MOODY College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia ... We also estimated a multinomial selection model with chloice categories, zero, one, two, and three or more ... On the finite sample distribution of... more
... By CARLISLE E. MOODY College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia ... We also estimated a multinomial selection model with chloice categories, zero, one, two, and three or more ... On the finite sample distribution of generalized classical linear identifi-ability test statistics. ...
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... resources and usually increases the fraction of this value captured by government via thecompetitive bidding process ... 2 We evaluated the validity of these identifying restrictions with a Basmann (1960) test. ... as a result of... more
... resources and usually increases the fraction of this value captured by government via thecompetitive bidding process ... 2 We evaluated the validity of these identifying restrictions with a Basmann (1960) test. ... as a result of using the proportion of joint bids in the high-bid equation.3 ...
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Along with coauthors, John J. Donohue of the Stanford Law School regularly releases empirical research finding that certain laws concerning the carrying of firearms, those known as right-to-carry or RTC laws, increase violent crime. We... more
Along with coauthors, John J. Donohue of the Stanford Law School regularly releases empirical research finding that certain laws concerning the carrying of firearms, those known as right-to-carry or RTC laws, increase violent crime. We have engaged with the previous releases to show that the latest findings are not robust, and here we do so again. This time we address something maintained in the previous releases, namely the weighting of fixed-effects regressions by population, and something that is new to the last two versions, namely a synthetic control procedure. Perhaps after another round or two it will be time to recap all the robustness criticisms to date, but here we confine ourselves to the two new criticisms. Donohue, Abhay Aneja, and Kyle Weber (hereafter DAW) have produced two revisions (2018a; b) to their 2017 working paper, which itself is part of a series of papers dating back 15 years (Donohue 2003; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang 2010; 2011; 2012; 2014; see also Aneja, Do...
In 2005 the National Research Council (NRC) analyzed right-to-carry (RTC) laws, which relax the requirements necessary to acquire a permit to carry a concealed weapon. The NRC essentially concluded that the data were not sufficient to... more
In 2005 the National Research Council (NRC) analyzed right-to-carry (RTC) laws, which relax the requirements necessary to acquire a permit to carry a concealed weapon. The NRC essentially concluded that the data were not sufficient to determine whether RTC laws increased or decreased crime. However, a recent working paper from Abhay Aneja, John J. Donohue, and Alexandria Zhang re-evaluates the NRC analysis and purports to find evidence that RTC laws increase murder, rape, robbery, and assault. They make a number of choices that generate those results, but we find those choices are often unjustifiable. Most importantly, we note that they use only part of the available data, claiming that a regime change renders decades of data unusable—yet they did not test for the existence of a regime change, and our examination here finds little evidence that such a regime change occurred. Additionally, we note that they compare states that newly adopted laws with states that already had laws, tha...
In 2016 Adam Lankford published a widely propagated article purporting to show that during a 47-year period the United States represented 31 percent of worldwide public mass shooters, and claiming that the outsized U.S. percentage is a... more
In 2016 Adam Lankford published a widely propagated article purporting to show that during a 47-year period the United States represented 31 percent of worldwide public mass shooters, and claiming that the outsized U.S. percentage is a result of gun prevalence. We examined the data from 1998 to 2012 and found that, although the U.S. has 4.5 percent of the world’s population, the U.S. represents less than three percent of worldwide mass shooting incidents or mass shooting deaths and less than one percent of mass shooters. What explains this incredible difference? While Lankford claims he is using the conventional definitions of public mass shootings from the FBI and NYPD, it turns out that Lankford’s 31-percent claim is an artifact of his having stripped out much from conventional definitions of ‘public mass shooter,’ notably excluding almost all incidents of terrorism outside the U.S. and most of the cases where more than one shooter is involved. We compare U.S. and non-U.S. public ...
Seventeen states have passed Red Flag or Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) laws which allow police, family members, individuals living in the same residence, and others to file a petition for a court order temporarily seizing the... more
Seventeen states have passed Red Flag or Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) laws which allow police, family members, individuals living in the same residence, and others to file a petition for a court order temporarily seizing the firearms of persons accused to be a danger to themselves or others. The theory is that some individuals could pose a danger to themselves and others that could be made worse by the presence of firearms. Therefore, a policy that denied the individual access to their firearms, if only temporarily, might indeed save lives. However, it is possible that these laws could increase homicide or suicide. If a troubled person is aware of the existence of a Red Flag law, he or she may well not seek help because of the threat of an ERPO. Also, the enforcement of the orders could also have perverse consequences. Two states have considerable experience with ERPO’s: Connecticut, since1999, and Indiana since 2005. We use synthetic controls and difference in differences methods to evaluate these laws. The experience in both Connecticut and Indiana is that red flag laws have had no significant effect on either homicide or suicide. We also find that ERPO laws have had no significant effect on deaths or injuries from mass public shootings.
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Personal violence, has declined substantially in Europe from 1200-2010. The conventional wisdom is that the state’s monopoly on violence is the cause of this happy result. I find some evidence that does not support this hypothesis. I... more
Personal violence, has declined substantially in Europe from 1200-2010. The conventional wisdom is that the state’s monopoly on violence is the cause of this happy result. I find some evidence that does not support this hypothesis. I suggest an alternative hypothesis that could explain at least some of the reduction in violence, namely that the invention and proliferation of compact, concealable, ready-to-use firearms caused potential assailants to recalculate the probability of a successful assault and seek alternatives to violence. I use structural change models to test this hypothesis and find breakpoints consistent with the invention of certain firearms.