Celestino Suárez

The globalization of the world economy has given rise to new trade patterns through the intensification of international production networks (IPNs). This phenomenon has enabled countries to undertake more in-depth specialization in niche parts of the production chain, with important benefits for their economic activity and growth. The Western Balkan countries are no exception. With their recent integration into global markets, an increasingly large share of their trade flows entail intermediate goods that are eventually processed and exported. This article analyzes the impact of different degrees of participation in IPNs on the economic performance of the Western Balkan countries, thereby testing the hypothesis that trade created by international fragmentation of production may generate effects on economic growth beyond the beneficial influence of total or final goods trade. The article focuses on the period 2002–2013. The results, using a set of panel data models, show that the degree of involvement in IPNs significantly affects economic performance, which partly explains the observed differences in the growth rates of the Western Balkan countries. We also find that the positive influence of processing trade on economic growth is greater than the traditional gains of an increase in foreign demand.

This paper has found evidence that real effective exchange rates have a positive impact on the trade balance in the long run for major European Union countries. This result sheds more light on the long-run statistical relationship between those two variables, at least in the context of the Community. The existence of that link is sustained by the effects that income variables have on the trade balance. The outcomes of this analysis in support of a long-run equilibrium relationship are consistent with the imperfect substitutes model, confirming the validity of this model for economic policy implementation purposes. Low, long-run elasticities of the trade balance with respect to the real effective exchange rate indicate that a substantial change in relative prices should be made to considerably improve trade accounts. This fact may be related to the prevailing tendencies of intraindustry trade among industrialized countries. Therefore, variables other than price should be stressed. Costs of relinquishing individual exchange rates in the monetary union may be, generally, rather moderate given the estimates of the price elasticities obtained. In any case, adjustment to external shocks will always be a real adjustment since one of the Maastricht commitments for European Union countries to reach monetary union in 1999 is the stability of exchange rates, abandoning them as instruments of economic policy. (JEL F10)