Jim Hall
University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute, Faculty Member
- Professor Jim Hall FREng is Director of the Environmental Change Institute in the University of Oxford, where he is P... moreProfessor Jim Hall FREng is Director of the Environmental Change Institute in the University of Oxford, where he is Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks, a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Engineering Science and fellow of Linacre College. His research focuses upon management of climate-related risks in infrastructure systems, in particular relating to various dimensions of water security, including flooding and water scarcity. Jim Hall is a member of the UK independent Committee on Climate Change Adaptation. In 2010 Jim was elected as a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering "for his contribution to the development of methods for flood risk analysis, which underpin approaches for flood risk management in the UK and internationally." He sits on the Public Voice Committee of the Institution of Civil Engineers and was a member of the panel conducting the Institution of Civil Engineer’s 2014 State of the Nation Infrastructure assessment and the Executive Group for the National Needs Assessment – A Vision for UK Infrastructure. Until 2015 Jim Hall was co-chair of the Global Water Partnership / OECD Task Force on the Economics of Water Security and Sustainable Growth. He advises the World Bank on water security and is editor of the AGU journal Water Resources Research. Jim leads the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium, which has developed the world’s first national infrastructure simulation models for appraisal of national infrastructure investment and risks. His book "The Future of National Infrastructure: A System of Systems Approach" was published by Cambridge University Press in 2016. He sits on the Expert Advisory Group for the National Infrastructure Commission and Chairs the DAFNI Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure.edit
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Research Interests: Geology and Oceanography
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ABSTRACT It is always necessary to make decisions in the absence of perfect information. In the past, uncertainty has been implicitly accounted for in flood risk management decisions through safety factors and allowances rather than via... more
ABSTRACT It is always necessary to make decisions in the absence of perfect information. In the past, uncertainty has been implicitly accounted for in flood risk management decisions through safety factors and allowances rather than via explicit analysis. Recognising uncertainty does not, however, prevent decisions being made. In fact, recognising uncertainty is a key requirement for appropriately designing adaptive capacity and resilience into flood risk management choices. Only by quantifying and acknowledging uncertainty are we better placed to decide how best to manage it. Perhaps the largest of these uncertainties is associated with future conditions. Climate and demographic change can have a profound influence on flood risk management and the management choices made. Infrastructure choices made today will persist for several decades if not centuries, so taking a longer term, strategic view when planning infrastructure investment is critical to making the right choice. This chapter explores various methods and approaches that have been applied in practice, as well as those emerging from research, to support good decision-making under uncertainty, including scenario development, robust decision-making and adaptive management (based on multi-stage interventions), and in particular how adaptive capacity can be appropriately embedded within infrastructure design and management using real option approaches.
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... 8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank the Environment Agency without whom this work would not be possible. Par-ticular thanks go to Bill Donovan, Julian Wright and Gary Watson. We also thank Mark Dixon (Univer-
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Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a full peer review. The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the... more
Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a full peer review. The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone and not the ...
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A system of hydrodynamic, morphodynamic and reliability models have been coupled to generate insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practices on coastal erosion and flood risk over 50km of coastline and up to... more
A system of hydrodynamic, morphodynamic and reliability models have been coupled to generate insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practices on coastal erosion and flood risk over 50km of coastline and up to 100 years in the future. Offshore wave ...
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Cities are faced with a number of sustainability challenges in the context of climate change. There is an urgent need to limit greenhouse gas emissions from cities if ambitious mitigation targets are to be met. Meanwhile, cities are... more
Cities are faced with a number of sustainability challenges in the context of climate change. There is an urgent need to limit greenhouse gas emissions from cities if ambitious mitigation targets are to be met. Meanwhile, cities are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change unless adaptation plans can be put in place. The need to connect climate change adaptation and mitigation with broader assessment of sustainability is becoming increasingly recognised. This paper describes an urban integrated assessment facility developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, which simulates socio-economic change, climate impacts and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the twenty first century at the city scale. The urban integrated assessment facility adopts a broad-scale systems approach to urban development and sustainability assessment. It incorporates a multi-sectoral model of the regional economy, hierarchical city-scale spatial interaction model and modules for asses...
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Flood engineering in Britain is evolving from traditional approaches based on design standards to the development of risk-based decision-making, which involves taking account of a range of loads, defence system responses and impacts of... more
Flood engineering in Britain is evolving from traditional approaches based on design standards to the development of risk-based decision-making, which involves taking account of a range of loads, defence system responses and impacts of flooding. Adopting such a ‘whole systems’ approach enables combinations of structural and non-structural approaches to be assessed and compared so resources can be targeted to best effect. Building on methods and know-how already in widespread use in river and coastal engineering, risk-analysis techniques are now being adopted in all areas—from high-level planning based on outline analysis to detailed designs using high-resolution simulation models. This paper explores some of the new techniques of this emerging approach to flood risk management.
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The coastal simulator is designed to provide information on the possible future states of the coast through the 21st Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links a series of models... more
The coastal simulator is designed to provide information on the possible future states of the coast through the 21st Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links a series of models within a nested spatial framework that recognises three scales which provide boundary conditions to the smaller scale: (1) “global”; (2) regional (e.g. North Sea); and (3) the simulator domain (defined by discrete physiographic unit(s)). The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morphodynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morphodynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. The simulator includes a dedicated graphical user interface which allows a range of queries of the results, including visualisations. The prototype simulator is designed to support Shoreline Management Plans (SMP’s), but provides a methodology that could support integrated coastal zone management.
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Mokrech, Mustafa, Nicholls, Robert, Hanson, Susan, Watkinson, Andrew, Jude, Simon, Nicholson-Cole, Sophie, Hall, Jim, Walkden, Mike, Stansby, Peter, Dawson, Richard, Stansby, Peter, Jacoub, George, Rounsevell, Mark, Fontaine, Corentin,... more
Mokrech, Mustafa, Nicholls, Robert, Hanson, Susan, Watkinson, Andrew, Jude, Simon, Nicholson-Cole, Sophie, Hall, Jim, Walkden, Mike, Stansby, Peter, Dawson, Richard, Stansby, Peter, Jacoub, George, Rounsevell, Mark, Fontaine, Corentin, Acosta-Michlik, ...
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This paper builds upon the paper presented at DEFRA 2002, outlining the RASP High Level Methodology, to provide more detailed level analysis within the context of a consistent and tiered analysis framework. In particular, the paper... more
This paper builds upon the paper presented at DEFRA 2002, outlining the RASP High Level Methodology, to provide more detailed level analysis within the context of a consistent and tiered analysis framework. In particular, the paper provides an insight into the Intermediate and Detailed Level analysis proposed under RASP, with the following distinction: •The Intermediate Level of the RASP methodology aims to support Shoreline Management Plans, Catchment Flood Management Plans and more detailed aspects of fluvial and coastal strategy plans. The results could also be used to improve and verify studies such as the National Flood Risk Assessment 2002 for defined areas, and will support decision-makers in the prioritisation of expenditure, regional and strategic planning, planning of flood warning, regulation of development and maintenance management. •The Detailed Level of the RASP methodology supports scheme design and optimisation. The level of analysis and associated costs mean that f...
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<p>Livestock are known to be one of the leading sources of nitrogen and other organic pollutant contents in surface waters. In response to growing demand for animal-source foods, livestock production has shifted into... more
<p>Livestock are known to be one of the leading sources of nitrogen and other organic pollutant contents in surface waters. In response to growing demand for animal-source foods, livestock production has shifted into more high-input systems, accompanied by increased fertilizer and animal manure application rates to produce feed, which has resulted in large losses of nitrogen. The effects of nitrogen contamination of water bodies on human and ecosystem health are not limited and localized but have large-scale implications and are rapidly becoming widespread. However, current approaches to estimate the changes in stream water quality often fail to explicitly account for livestock activities across large spatial scales. To overcome this challenge, we adopted a data-driven approach and developed a spatio-temporal water quality model. Our model is based on a popular supervised machine learning technique, known as random forests, that can efficiently handle large, heterogeneous geo-environmental datasets. The model was trained using several site-level measurements and a large set of gridded environmental covariates to predict monthly nitrogen concentrations across the world. We then performed variable importance analysis on the proposed model to identify influential drivers of nitrogen variability at global scale. Our results confirmed the prominent role of livestock population and nitrogen fertilizer use in pollution of the river systems. Finally, we quantified how much livestock has contributed to nitrogen pollution in 115 major river basins of the world. We found that during 1992-2010 the average increase in nitrogen concentrations due to livestock was about 15% globally. Importantly, model results also indicate that at some large basins livestock population is responsible for more than 50% of raise in the levels of nitrogen. These regions point to the global livestock ‘‘hot spots’’ where high nitrogen loading to waterways may be expected. The results and insights gained in this study can have important implications for better management of livestock faming systems and pollution control policies.</p>
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Research Interests: Engineering and Int
Flood defence planning decisions are made on the basis of comparison of (whole life) cost of alternative investment options with the beneflcial risk reduction that they are expected to yield. Consider a set of k options Q = fqi : i =... more
Flood defence planning decisions are made on the basis of comparison of (whole life) cost of alternative investment options with the beneflcial risk reduction that they are expected to yield. Consider a set of k options Q = fqi : i = 0;:::;k i1g, each with an annual cost stream C(i;0);:::;C(i;ti1) over the t-year appraisal period. q0 denotes a ‘base case’ in which C(0;y) = 0 8y 2 f0;:::;ti1g. The vector of n system state variables that determine the severity of ∞ooding for any given option at any instant in time is denoted x 2 X. For example, one of the most important variables in∞uencing ∞ood risk at a coastal site is sea level s (measured relative to land level). Short term variation in s is attributable to astronomic tides and meteorological elevation of the water level (surge). A given system state x will yield ∞ood damage D(x) ‚ 0, which is measured in the same economic units as C. We take variation in x in any given year y to be stationary in time, and described by a jpdf fi;y...
Research Interests: Geography and Flood Myth
Several global gridded population data sets are available at unprecedented high-resolution, including recent releases at 100-m, 30-m, and 10-m resolution. These data sets are the result of the application of advanced methods to... more
Several global gridded population data sets are available at unprecedented high-resolution, including recent releases at 100-m, 30-m, and 10-m resolution. These data sets are the result of the application of advanced methods to disaggregate census population counts from administrative units and facilitated by the proliferation of increasingly high-resolution spatial information pertaining to the built environment (e.g. built-up and building footprint data). Accordingly, these gridded population data are increasingly dependent on a single ancillary data set to inform the distribution of populations across space. Our study tests several combinations of binary masking variables (land areas, all building footprints, residential building footprints) and density variables (building footprint areas, building volumes) derived from characteristics of the built environment at 20× and 8000× downscaling using a flexible equation for high-resolution global dasymetric population modeling. The assessment is applied in New York City, where large spatial heterogeneities exist across confined geographic areas. Results confirm that the performance of the model generally improves as: (i) the binary masking variable becomes increasingly limiting; and, (ii) the density variable becomes more pronounced. However, application requires careful consideration due to their propensity to amplify both positive results and errors
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Decision-makers need to be able to respond to the question 'how much adaptation is enough?' even though there is seldom a simple answer.
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10 Assessing impacts and responses to global-mean sea-level rise Robert J. Nicholls, Richard SJ Tol and Jim W. Hall 10.1 Introduction One of the more certain impacts of human-induced climate change is a rise in global-mean sea level... more
10 Assessing impacts and responses to global-mean sea-level rise Robert J. Nicholls, Richard SJ Tol and Jim W. Hall 10.1 Introduction One of the more certain impacts of human-induced climate change is a rise in global-mean sea level (Nicholls and Lowe, 2004). While the impacts of ...
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... Shih, SM, Komar, PD, Tillotson, KJ, McDougal, WG & Ruggiero, P.,(1994), " Wave run-up and sea-cliff erosion". ... ISBN 0-471-91775-3. Wilcock, PR, Miller, DS, Shea, RH, & Kerkin, RT,(1998)," Frequency of... more
... Shih, SM, Komar, PD, Tillotson, KJ, McDougal, WG & Ruggiero, P.,(1994), " Wave run-up and sea-cliff erosion". ... ISBN 0-471-91775-3. Wilcock, PR, Miller, DS, Shea, RH, & Kerkin, RT,(1998)," Frequency of effective wave activity and the recession of coastal bluffs: Calvert Cliffs ...
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Uncertainties in hydrodynamic model calibration and boundary conditions can have a significant influence on flood inundation predictions. Uncertainty analysis involves quantification of these uncertainties and their propagation through to... more
Uncertainties in hydrodynamic model calibration and boundary conditions can have a significant influence on flood inundation predictions. Uncertainty analysis involves quantification of these uncertainties and their propagation through to inundation predictions. In this paper the inverse problem of sensitivity analysis is tackled, in order to diagnose the influence that model input variables, together and in combination, have on the uncertainty in the inundation model prediction. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis is applied to simulation of a flood on a reach of the River Thames (United Kingdom) for which a synthetic aperture radar image of the extent of flooding was available for model validation. The sensitivity analysis using the method of Sobol' quantifies the significant influence of variance in the Manning channel roughness coefficient in raster-based flood inundation model predictions of flood outline and flood depth. The spatial influence of the Manning channel roughness coefficient is analyzed by dividing the channel into subreaches and calculating variance-based sensitivity indices for each subreach. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling is used for sensitivity analysis with correlated input variables. The methodology identifies subreaches of channel that have the most influence on variance in the model predictions, demonstrating how far boundary effects propagate into the model and indicating where further data acquisition and nested higher-resolution model studies should be targeted.
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Coastal boundary conditions tend to complicate flood risk analysis. In particular the close coupling between flooding and shore morphology introduces considerable uncertainty, because beach level is a major determinant in the reliability... more
Coastal boundary conditions tend to complicate flood risk analysis. In particular the close coupling between flooding and shore morphology introduces considerable uncertainty, because beach level is a major determinant in the reliability of flood protection structures. ...
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Analysis of numerous low carbon electricity strategies have been shown to have very divergent water requirements, normally needed for cooling of thermoelectric power stations. Our regional river-basin scale analysis of water use for... more
Analysis of numerous low carbon electricity strategies have been shown to have very divergent water requirements, normally needed for cooling of thermoelectric power stations. Our regional river-basin scale analysis of water use for future UK electricity strategies shows that, whilst in the majority of cases freshwater use is expected to decline, pathways with high levels of carbon capture and storage (CCS) will result in significantly elevated and concentrated water demands in a few key river basins. Furthermore, these growing demands are compared to both current water availability, and our expected regional water availability under the impacts of climate change. We identify key freshwater constraints to electricity strategies with high levels of CCS and show how these risks may be mitigated with higher levels of hybrid cooling and alternative cooling water sources.
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In this paper Information-gap decision theory is introduced to the field of flood management decisions, as an alternative to established probabilistic or fuzzy approaches. Decisions are made using Ben- Haim's info-gap approach which... more
In this paper Information-gap decision theory is introduced to the field of flood management decisions, as an alternative to established probabilistic or fuzzy approaches. Decisions are made using Ben- Haim's info-gap approach which focuses on robust decision making in cases of severe uncertainty, using a satisficing approach. This utilises the idea of equifinality, that several parameter sets may exist which provide some form of acceptable model, rather than a single optimum parameter set. Such an approach avoids the need to impose any form of normalised measure function across parameter space, a feature particularly useful when considering extreme events. A simple example is used to illustrate implementation of this methodology in fluvial river inundation modelling, where energy loss is used as a constraining factor for uncertainty. A de- cision is then shown by trading off immunity against pernicious uncertainty and opportunity arising from pro- pitious uncertainty.
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This paper facilitated the development of solutions for local coastal defense problems within the context of a long term sustainable regional strategy. The following principal components have provided the basis for the analysis of: (1) an... more
This paper facilitated the development of solutions for local coastal defense problems within the context of a long term sustainable regional strategy. The following principal components have provided the basis for the analysis of: (1) an understanding of the regional geomorphology and cliff recession processes; (2) recognition of the unique coastal cliff environment; (3) extensive numerical modeling of nearshore wave and tidal conditions; (4) multiple studies of littoral sediment transport, to include numerical modeling, sediment sample analysis, and reviews of previous research; (5) regional scale modeling of coastal processes and shoreline evolution; and (6) GIS-based economic analysis to support options appraisal at a regional level. Therefore, central to this integration has been an understanding of the physical processes governing coastal erosion, the interdependency of adjacent management units (in terms of sediment transport), and GIS-based economic analysis in order to asse...