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Research Interests:
The primacy of institutions reconsidered: direct income effects of malaria prevalence by Kai Carstensen, and Erich Gundlacb; when is external debt sustainable? By Aart Kraay, and Vikram Nehru; will African agriculture survive climate... more
The primacy of institutions reconsidered: direct income effects of malaria prevalence by Kai Carstensen, and Erich Gundlacb; when is external debt sustainable? By Aart Kraay, and Vikram Nehru; will African agriculture survive climate change? By Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, Robert Mendelsohn, Rashid Hassan, James Benbin, Temesgen Deressa, Mbaye Diop, Helmy Mobamed Eid, K. Yerfi Fosu, Glwadys Gbetibouo, Suman Jain, Ali Mabamadou, Rennetb Mano, Jane Kabubo-Mariara, Samia El-Marsafawy, Ernest Molua, Samiha Ouda, Matbieu Ouedraogo, Isidor Sine, David Maddison, S. Niggol Seo, and Ariel Dinar; micro enterprise dynamics in developing countries: how similar are they to those in the industrialized world? Evidence from Mexico by Pablo Fajnzylber, William Maloney, and Gabriel Montes Rojas; the glass of milk subsidy program and malnutrition in Peru by David Stifel and Harold Alderman; how endowments, accumulations, and choice determine the geography of agricultural productivity in Ecuador by Donald F...
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Southeast Asia has achieved impressive economic performance over the years, which positions it well for future economic and social progress. The two largest economies in the world—the United States and China—have recognized the enormous... more
Southeast Asia has achieved impressive economic performance over the years, which positions it well for future economic and social progress. The two largest economies in the world—the United States and China—have recognized the enormous economic and strategic potential of Southeast Asia and have made the region a core element in their regional and global plans. At the same time, Southeast Asia is confronting many challenges that could derail its continued rapid economic and institutional development. Some of these challenges emanate from outside the region, such as the region’s vulnerability to global economic instability, while other challenges come from within. Political, ethnic, and communal tensions threaten stability and development in some countries. This chapter first examines the factors behind Southeast Asia’s long-term economic progress and the development of a regional institutional structure that has helped make this progress resilient over several decades. It then exami...
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Research Interests: Debt and The World Bank
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has been riveted by China's rapid growth and its contribution to the global recovery. But less attention has been paid to India and Indonesia – Asia's two other giants – which... more
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has been riveted by China's rapid growth and its contribution to the global recovery. But less attention has been paid to India and Indonesia – Asia's two other giants – which also displayed resilience during the crisis and show promise of sustaining this performance. Also remarkable are their geographical, historical and cultural proximity; notwithstanding their differences, these two countries are alike in many respects and face similar challenges, as reflected in their emerging policy priorities. China's large size and rapid growth may have absorbed the attention of Indian and Indonesian policy makers, but this paper argues that a comparative approach to the issues that both countries face can yield interesting insights and provide potential solutions to their development challenges.
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Abstract: We empirically examine the determinants of ‘debt distress”, which we define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (i) significant arrears on external debt, (ii) Paris Club... more
Abstract: We empirically examine the determinants of ‘debt distress”, which we define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (i) significant arrears on external debt, (ii) Paris Club resecheduling, and (iii) nonconcessional IMF lending. Using probit regressions, we find that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. We show that these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and we show that our core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. We also explore the quantitative implications of these results for the lending strategies of official creditors.
... Page 7. Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Vikram Nehru and comprising Vargha Azad, Bert Hofman, Aart Kraay, Liu Dusheng, Tamar Manuelyan Atinc, Zhou ... The peer reviewers were Pradeep Mitra, William Easterly,... more
... Page 7. Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Vikram Nehru and comprising Vargha Azad, Bert Hofman, Aart Kraay, Liu Dusheng, Tamar Manuelyan Atinc, Zhou ... The peer reviewers were Pradeep Mitra, William Easterly, Nicholas Lardy, and Linda Koenig ...
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We empirically examine the determinants of ‘debt distress”, which we define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (i) significant arrears on external debt, (ii) Paris Club resecheduling, and... more
We empirically examine the determinants of ‘debt distress”, which we define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (i) significant arrears on external debt, (ii) Paris Club resecheduling, and (iii) nonconcessional IMF lending. Using probit regressions, we find that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. We show that these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and we show that our core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. We also explore the quantitative implications of these results for the lending strategies of official creditors. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3200, February 2004 The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development iss...
The author applies the theme of the last two papers in the Global Economic Prospects series, written by the International Economics Department, to the case of one developing region: East Asia. He documents the rapid integration of the... more
The author applies the theme of the last two papers in the Global Economic Prospects series, written by the International Economics Department, to the case of one developing region: East Asia. He documents the rapid integration of the East Asian economies into the world economy through trade and foreign direct investment, and suggests that this has helped create a relatively well-diversified structure of production and of external markets. As a result, East Asia was relatively unaffected by the great terms-of-trade shocks experienced by other developing countries in the 1980s. East Asia's creditworthiness in international financial markets meant that (except for the Philippines) it could maintain access to external capital flows during the world years of the debt crisis. East Asia's close economic links with the rest of the world makes the region particularly vulnerable to shocks originating externally. Simulations suggest that its growth rate is closely related to the growt...
Research Interests: Business, East Asia, Economic Theory, Capital Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and 13 moreEconomic policy, Human Resource, Capital Flows, Free Trade, Developing Country, Trade Policy, Terms of Trade, International Financial Markets, Foreign Direct Investments, Growth rate, Uruguay Round, Developing Regions, and Trade flows
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Summary The process for Indonesia's 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections is underway. A few discernible patterns have emerged, yet the political situation at this early stage remains fluid and both races are open. Recent... more
Summary The process for Indonesia's 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections is underway. A few discernible patterns have emerged, yet the political situation at this early stage remains fluid and both races are open. Recent events have shown, however, that Indonesian democracy itself is still relatively young and evolving, the balance of power between key institutions is still unsettled, and constitutional checks and balances are still being tested. Macroeconomic developments over the last few months have been mixed. Economic growth stayed above 6%, despite a difficult external environment, and inflation, which climbed in the first quarter, began to ease in April and May. At the same time, slower investment growth, deficits in the current and capital accounts of the balance of payments, downward pressure on the rupiah, and the risk of further increases in interest and exchange rates cast a shadow over near-term growth prospects. The recent rise in global interest rates tri...
The authors present new estimates of long-term total factor productivity (TFP) growth for 83 industrial and developing countries for 1960-87. These estimates are based on new data developed for the research project on total factor... more
The authors present new estimates of long-term total factor productivity (TFP) growth for 83 industrial and developing countries for 1960-87. These estimates are based on new data developed for the research project on total factor productivity growth (and available on diskette). Although based on the"old"growth theory, the estimates are derived from a cross-country production function using an error-correction model. This is more appropriate than the usual first-difference model for capturing long-term relations. The authors concluded the following: (a) The estimated cross-country production function shows that human capital accumulation is far more important in explaining growth than several earlier studies have indicated. This conforms with recent studies that find raw labor's share in income to be much less than thought previously. (b) Contrary to the results of other studies, TFP growth in high-income countries has been comparable to that in faster-growing low and ...
Research Interests: Economics, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Economic policy, Human Capital, and 15 moreDeveloping Country, Inequality, Electricity Consumption, Developing Economies, Production Function, Development Process, Initial Condition, New Products, Error Correction Model, Old Growth Forests, Exhaustive Search, Per Capita Income, Law and Legal Studies, Growth Accounting, and human capital accumulation
The diagnosis has been prepared by a team of members under the auspices of The 1818 Society, the official World Bank Alumni Association. The views expressed are those of the team and do not necessarily reflect the views of The 1818... more
The diagnosis has been prepared by a team of members under the auspices of The 1818 Society, the official World Bank Alumni Association. The views expressed are those of the team and do not necessarily reflect the views of The 1818 Society or its membership.
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is... more
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is premature to withdraw the fiscal stimulus until the global recovery is on a firmer footing. Fortunately, most countries in the region have adequate fiscal space and relatively low debt burdens. To ensure that the momentum of the recovery transitions into sustainable and inclusive growth over the medium term, the governments in the region must once again focus their attention on medium-term structural reforms. This means different policy priorities in different countries—especially given the diversity of the region. In addition, the region faces two common priorities— regional economic integration and climate change. Making progress on both fronts will be critical to the region’s medium-term prospects.
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The authors describe the techniques and data adopted for the construction of a new series of estimates of the stock of education in 85 countries over 28 years (1960-87). It covers all the important developing regions except the republics... more
The authors describe the techniques and data adopted for the construction of a new series of estimates of the stock of education in 85 countries over 28 years (1960-87). It covers all the important developing regions except the republics of the former Soviet Union. The International Economics Department (IEC) continues a well-established trend in growth research of using educational stock (measured as mean school years of education of the labor force) as a proxy for human capital. The series are built from enrollment data using the perpetual inventory method, adjusted for mortality. Estimates are corrected for grade repetition among school-goers and country-specific drop-out rates for primary and secondary students. Enrollment data series used start as far back as 1930 for most countries, and even earlier for others. This reduces the need for backward extrapolation of enrollments to provide the initial estimates of the investment inventory.
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Research Interests:
Research Interests: Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Economic policy, Human Capital, Developing Country, and 13 moreInequality, Developing Economies, Total factor productivity, Production Function, Development Process, Sub Saharan Africa, Old-Growth Forests, Initial Condition, Error Correction Model, Exhaustive Search, Per Capita Income, Total Factor Productivity Growth, and human capital accumulation
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The author applies the theme of the last two papers in the Global Economic Prospects series, written by the International Economics Department, to the case of one developing region: East Asia. He documents the rapid integration of the... more
The author applies the theme of the last two papers in the Global Economic Prospects series, written by the International Economics Department, to the case of one developing region: East Asia. He documents the rapid integration of the East Asian economies into the world economy through trade and foreign direct investment, and suggests that this has helped create a relatively
Research Interests: East Asia, Economic Theory, Capital Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic policy, and 12 moreHuman Resource, Capital Flows, Free Trade, Developing Country, Trade Policy, Terms of Trade, International Financial Markets, Foreign Direct Investments, Growth rate, Uruguay Round, Developing Regions, and Trade flows
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is... more
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is premature to withdraw the fiscal stimulus until the global recovery is on a firmer footing. Fortunately, most countries in the region have adequate fiscal space and relatively low debt burdens. To ensure that the momentum of the recovery transitions into sustainable and inclusive growth over the medium term, the governments in the region must once again focus their attention on medium-term structural reforms. This means different policy priorities in different countries—especially given the diversity of the region. In addition, the region faces two common priorities— regional economic integration and climate change. Making progress on both fronts will be critical to the region’s medium-term prospects.
Research Interests:
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is... more
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is premature to withdraw the fiscal stimulus until the global recovery is on a firmer footing. Fortunately, most countries in the region have adequate fiscal space and
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Economic Growth, Empowerment, Financial Markets, Consumer Goods, Corruption, and 15 moreCurrency, Capital Formation, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Contingent Liabilities, Balance of Payments, Economic Downturn, Audits, APR, Balance Sheet, Capital Stock, Fixed Rate, creditors, Consumer Confidence, and Debt Service
Despite the popularity of the term among advocates of debt forgiveness, there is little agreement on a workable definition of"odious"debts and there are but few examples where the concept has been invoked in law to justify... more
Despite the popularity of the term among advocates of debt forgiveness, there is little agreement on a workable definition of"odious"debts and there are but few examples where the concept has been invoked in law to justify non-payment of sovereign debts. Most often, these have been cases when a successor state or government has refused to honor certain debts contracted by its predecessor state or government. Repudiating sovereign debts on broader grounds - such as that money may have been misused by the borrower or that results were not as hoped for at the outset of lending - would create real risks not only of reduced financial flows to poorer countries as a result of the danger of ex post challenges to lenders'claims, but also of moral hazard and lack of project ownership. This paper presents a discussion of the extant legal and financial environment facing developing country sovereign borrowers and develops a proposed approach within this environment to address iss...