Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises... more
Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to “predict” the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This “historical retrodiction” is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call “a history of possible futures,” in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.
Norsk petroleumssektor har vært en storstilt arena for innovasjon. Næringen har gått løs på en kontinuerlig strøm av utfordringer; fra utvikling av felt i grunne farvann med lett tilgjengelig olje og gass, til kompliserte reservoarer,... more
Norsk petroleumssektor har vært en storstilt arena for innovasjon. Næringen har gått løs på en kontinuerlig strøm av utfordringer; fra utvikling av felt i grunne farvann med lett tilgjengelig olje og gass, til kompliserte reservoarer, langt fra land i dype havområder, og med store klimatiske utfordringer. Utfordringene har vært løst gjennom et omfattende samarbeid mellom operatørselskap (store petroleumsselskap), deres leverandører og underleverandører. Keynes påviste i sin tid muligheten for å utnytte positive ringvirkninger av offentlige investeringer og forbruk for å få fart på økonomien (Keynes 1936). Effekten var langt større enn den offentlige innsatsen skulle tilsi, takket være omfattende ringvirkninger, eller den såkalte multiplikatoreffekten. Vi argumenterer for at det kan skapes en tilsvarende multiplikatoreffekt for innovasjon som ikke bare utløser leverandørbedriftenes kreativitet, men også høster erfaringer fra nyskapning i egne utallige øvrige nettverk og kunderelasjon...
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This study applies a partial equilibrium forest sector model to analyse the impacts of biofuel deployment for road transport in the Nordic countries, when alternative use of the biomass resources and transport sector electrification are... more
This study applies a partial equilibrium forest sector model to analyse the impacts of biofuel deployment for road transport in the Nordic countries, when alternative use of the biomass resources and transport sector electrification are considered. We foresee a strong electrification of the transport sector, resulting in a demand for biofuels of approximately 2.5 billion L in 2035 and 1 billion L in 2050 in a 100% fossil-free base scenario. The simultaneous increase in demand from pulping industries and biofuel will cause an overall increase in wood use, of which the biofuels share will constitute approximately 20–25%. The utilization of harvest residues will increase more than 300% compared to the current level, since biofuel production will reallocate some of the current raw material used in district heating. Biofuel consumption in road transport will likely reduce after 2040 due to increasing electrification, but it is plausible that the declining domestic demand will be replaced...
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Introduction Following deregulation of the principal energy markets, and EU failure to impose harmonised taxation on polluting emissions, some European countries have moved towards market based greening of energy supply. This move is... more
Introduction Following deregulation of the principal energy markets, and EU failure to impose harmonised taxation on polluting emissions, some European countries have moved towards market based greening of energy supply. This move is demanding, however, as political authorities thereby engage extensively not only in market regulation, but also in market construction, even to the extent of taking responsibility for creating demand and balancing it with sufficient supply. Based on experiences from the Swedish electricity certificate market, this paper discusses challenges facing “green” market construction, including such issues as: Static efficiency versus dynamic innovation and the challenge of immature green technologies; market functioning and competition; the challenge of matching commercially based investment with political commitment; the problem of market calibration; effects of the certificate system on the power market; and distributive issues. The paper also explores how th...
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The article explores the interplay between policy, technological innovation and market dynamics. It highlights the challenges of combining biofuel policies for ‘greening’ transport with reviving the Nordic forestry industry. We find that... more
The article explores the interplay between policy, technological innovation and market dynamics. It highlights the challenges of combining biofuel policies for ‘greening’ transport with reviving the Nordic forestry industry. We find that strong policy initiatives have triggered a transition to biofuel in the three Nordic countries but have so far given little stimulus to forest-industrial revival. Instead, biofuel has created dynamic change in the petroleum sector, where retailers and refineries have adopted cheap imported biofuel to diversify out of an exclusive reliance on petroleum, leaving forest-based biofuel unable to compete. However, this does not mean that the forestry industry has remained stagnant. We find that parts of the Nordic forestry industry have staged an impressive revival, though one based predominantly on high value products, such as hygiene products and labels, and not on biofuel. We conclude that, while public policy may influence commercial conditions, it do...
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* This report has been prepared with the support of the European Academy of Business in Society (EABIS), as part of its Research, Education, and Training Partnership Programme on Corporate Social Responsibility. This Programme has been... more
* This report has been prepared with the support of the European Academy of Business in Society (EABIS), as part of its Research, Education, and Training Partnership Programme on Corporate Social Responsibility. This Programme has been made possible by the financial support ...
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What effect does a sector‐based negotiated economy have on industrial transformation, and what are the institutional mechanisms involved in negotiated sector‐regulation? These questions are tentatively answered through an analysis of the... more
What effect does a sector‐based negotiated economy have on industrial transformation, and what are the institutional mechanisms involved in negotiated sector‐regulation? These questions are tentatively answered through an analysis of the political economy of one of Norway's most important industrial sectors: the hydropower and energy‐intensive industry. The study focuses on factors that have allowed the sector to continue to expand throughout the 1970s and 1980s in spite of failing economic return and extensive political opposition. The over‐expansion is explained through the partial closure and self‐refercnciality found in the sector's regulatory system, which provides it with relative autonomy in relation to us economic and political environment. It is suggested that the pattern found in the hydropower and energy‐intensive sector may be typical of heavy industrial sectors in modern economies.
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Following several decades of scholarship with several disciplinary points of departure, there is today a great heterogeneity of theories and approaches to Corporate Responsibility (CR). Taking a pragmatist position, this paper takes some... more
Following several decades of scholarship with several disciplinary points of departure, there is today a great heterogeneity of theories and approaches to Corporate Responsibility (CR). Taking a pragmatist position, this paper takes some of the most central theoretic perspectives on CR and exposes them to an evaluation by three panels: corporate leaders, MSc students and NGOs. The purpose of the paper is to clarify and compare what these panels think motivates mangers to pursue CR from a positivist and normative perspective.We find that the three panels are in surprising agreement as to what they assume motivates managers to pursue CR and what should motivate the same managers. We also see a large discrepancy between what they think motivates and what should motivate managers. Branding, stakeholders, and value maximization are assumed to be key motivators, whereas sustainability and branding should be the key motivators. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
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PurposeThis paper seeks to take stock of core arguments in some of the most central governance traditions and to discuss their capacity to deliver solutions. It starts with an appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses of the ideas of... more
PurposeThis paper seeks to take stock of core arguments in some of the most central governance traditions and to discuss their capacity to deliver solutions. It starts with an appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses of the ideas of market‐, state‐ and civil‐society‐led governance, but also factors in the effect of media and communication as governance arenas in their own right. Then it aims to review core arguments put forward in broader approaches to governance where multiple governance mechanisms are combined.Design/methodology/approachThis is a conceptual paper that reviews central approaches in the governance literature and their ability to further sustainable development. The review is taken as a basis for tentative formulations of new supplementary governance approaches.FindingsOut of the critical analysis the paper distils is an approach to governance that combines three basic elements: First, a re‐interpretation of Montesquieu's principle of checks and balances – appli...
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to note the remarkable expansion of corporate social responsibility (CSR) throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Taking this as point of departure, it aims to discuss the potential for aligning... more
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to note the remarkable expansion of corporate social responsibility (CSR) throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Taking this as point of departure, it aims to discuss the potential for aligning CSR‐oriented industrial self‐regulation with public governance to fill some of the governance gap in the global economy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper provides a conceptual discussion, empirically underpinned by three case studies.FindingsThe paper finds that it is plausible, and empirically supported by the case studies, to conceive of a considerable role for CSR based self‐regulation in the global economy. A central precondition is the ability of civil society organizations to establish “moral rights” as credible voices for “just causes” in a media‐driven communicative society, and thereby put pressure on brand sensitive industry. The paper finds that corporate self‐regulation may fill a larger part of the governance gap if public policy is orie...
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PurposeThe increasing engagement in corporate social responsibility (CSR) potentially indicates an attempt to “re‐embed” the economy in a wider societal context, following a period of neoliberal market exposure, deregulation, and... more
PurposeThe increasing engagement in corporate social responsibility (CSR) potentially indicates an attempt to “re‐embed” the economy in a wider societal context, following a period of neoliberal market exposure, deregulation, and separation of commercial and societal concerns. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between this new social embedding of the economy and older traditions of social embeddedness, such as the welfare state, neocorporatist arrangements, and other socio‐political and labour market arrangements.Design/methodology/approachThe paper explores the relationship between old and new embeddedness by examining how 17 West European nations and the USA are ranked on “old” embeddedness dimensions and comparing this ranking with “new” CSR rankings of nationally aggregated industrial performance.FindingsThe overall findings at an aggregate level provides some support for the idea of a symmetric relationship between the “old”, politically‐driven embeddedne...
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The aim of this article is to contribute to understanding the changing role of government in promoting corporate social responsibility (CSR). Over the last decade, governments have joined other stakeholders in assuming a relevant role as... more
The aim of this article is to contribute to understanding the changing role of government in promoting corporate social responsibility (CSR). Over the last decade, governments have joined other stakeholders in assuming a relevant role as drivers of CSR, working together with intergovernmental organizations and recognizing that public policies are key in encouraging a greater sense of CSR. This paper focuses on the analysis of the new strategies adopted by governments in order to promote, and encourage businesses to adopt, CSR values and strategies. The research is based on the analysis of an explanatory framework, related to the development of a relational analytical framework, which tries to analyze the vision, values, strategies and roles adopted by governments, and the integration of new partnerships that governments establish in the CSR area with the private sector and social organizations. The research compares CSR initiatives and public policies in three European countries: It...
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Corporate social responsibility (CSR) was historically a business-oriented idea that companies should voluntarily improve their social and environmental practices. More recently, CSR has increasingly attracted governments’ attention, and... more
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) was historically a business-oriented idea that companies should voluntarily improve their social and environmental practices. More recently, CSR has increasingly attracted governments’ attention, and is now promoted in public policy, especially in the European Union (EU). Conflicts can arise, however, when advanced welfare states introduce CSR into public policy. The reason for such conflict is that CSR leaves key public welfare issues to the discretion of private business. This voluntary issue assignment contrasts starkly with advanced welfare states’ traditions favoring negotiated agreements and strong regulation to control corporate conduct. This article analyzes the conflicts and compatibilities arising when advanced welfare states introduce CSR, focusing on how the two traditions diverge and on how conflicts are reconciled. Empirically the study focuses on four Nordic countries—Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—widely recognized as the m...
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Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to explore the challenges of integrating corporate social responsibility (CSR) with other strategic foci into the supply/contractor chain, both conceptually and empirically, with a focus on one... more
Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to explore the challenges of integrating corporate social responsibility (CSR) with other strategic foci into the supply/contractor chain, both conceptually and empirically, with a focus on one sectorial case: the Norwegian upstream petroleum industry. It compares contradictory theories of strategic focus and explores their implications for the organisation of the supply chain
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European policy on the greening of the energy industry has been characterised by a debate between proponents of two apparent polar opposites, feed in tariffs and certificate markets. Different European countries have chosen both... more
European policy on the greening of the energy industry has been characterised by a debate between proponents of two apparent polar opposites, feed in tariffs and certificate markets. Different European countries have chosen both mechanisms and, as a consequence, the European Union has maintained a fairly pluralist position, abstaining from stricter harmonisation. Taking a dynamic innovation perspective on European energy
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The transition of Eastern Europe to Western-type liberal capitalism has by many observers been interpreted as an important step towards a more ecologically sustainable Europe. The main argument has been that the energy efficiency of the... more
The transition of Eastern Europe to Western-type liberal capitalism has by many observers been interpreted as an important step towards a more ecologically sustainable Europe. The main argument has been that the energy efficiency of the West-European economy will be imported to Eastern Europe and lead to lower energy consumption and lower pollution. This line of argumentation seems sound as
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Deregulation of electricity industry in Europe has tended to start with a grace period of energy surplus inherited from the previously expansive coordinated economies and further amplified by better resource utilisation from extended... more
Deregulation of electricity industry in Europe has tended to start with a grace period of energy surplus inherited from the previously expansive coordinated economies and further amplified by better resource utilisation from extended international trade. The regulatory challenge has therefore primarily been to allocate existing generation to consumers in an efficient way. However, as energy demand increases, due to economic
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European policy on the greening of the energy industry has been characterised by a debate between proponents of two apparent polar opposites, feed in tariffs and certificate markets. Different European countries have chosen both... more
European policy on the greening of the energy industry has been characterised by a debate between proponents of two apparent polar opposites, feed in tariffs and certificate markets. Different European countries have chosen both mechanisms and, as a consequence, the European Union has maintained a fairly pluralist position, abstaining from stricter harmonisation.Taking a dynamic innovation perspective on European energy industry,
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Deregulation of electricity industry in Europe has tended to start with a grace period of energy surplus inherited from the previously expansive coordinated economies and further amplified by better resource utilisation from extended... more
Deregulation of electricity industry in Europe has tended to start with a grace period of energy surplus inherited from the previously expansive coordinated economies and further amplified by better resource utilisation from extended international trade. The regulatory challenge has therefore primarily been to allocate existing generation to consumers in an efficient way. However, as energy demand increases, due to economic growth, the challenge of providing new capacity surfaces. The Nordic region, which has been a pioneer in internationalising and deregulating electricity, is now approaching this stage, ahead of most of the rest of Europe.While the Nordic case is characterised by specificities related to hydropower it also raises the more general challenge of capacity expansion under a deregulated market economy. The article therefore discusses how the Nordic investment challenges of today shed light on more generic challenges that may become more general European challenges of tomorrow.In a final section, the article discusses policy options available to address the investment/price-hike challenge. The argument is put forward that recursion to some degree of coordinated governance might seem necessary if solutions are confined within large-scale technical systems. However, within the context of a small-scale decentralised technological development, one may be more confident of competitive solutions.
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... in the use of policy instruments is of great importance to further green innovation. Failure to differentiate at early stages might lead to technological lock-ins, while failure to ... To achieve the extensive transformation towards... more
... in the use of policy instruments is of great importance to further green innovation. Failure to differentiate at early stages might lead to technological lock-ins, while failure to ... To achieve the extensive transformation towards sustainable development that is judged necessary in the ...