- Systems Ecologist with wide experience in modeling ecosystems, notably forests but also other ecosystems, in a changing climateedit
In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quan- tified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we... more
In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quan- tified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (Tg). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as Tg reaches and exceeds 2◦C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Com- pliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame “sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change”. Unless Tg is constrained to below 2◦C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting ex- isting ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.
Research Interests: Environmental Science, Climate Change, Biodiversity, Peer Review, Multidisciplinary, and 14 moreLand Use Change, Global Warming, global Climate change, Ecosystems, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Species Diversity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Metaanalysis, Climatic Change, Meta Analysis, Greenhouse Gas, Climate change impact, Ecosystem, and Biodiversity Hotspot
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Thematische Synthese und Ausblick zum Forschungsschwerpunkt V „Virtuelle Reprasentation“ Nationales Forschungsprogramm 48 „Landschaften und Lebensraume der Alpen“ des Schweizerischen Nationalfonds SNF Autoren: Ariane Walz, Christian... more
Thematische Synthese und Ausblick zum Forschungsschwerpunkt V „Virtuelle Reprasentation“ Nationales Forschungsprogramm 48 „Landschaften und Lebensraume der Alpen“ des Schweizerischen Nationalfonds SNF Autoren: Ariane Walz, Christian Gloor, Britta Allgower, Peter Bebi, Andreas Fischlin, Eckart Lange und Kai Nagel
Research Interests: Humanities and Art
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The cryosphere (including, snow, glaciers, permafrost, lake and river ice) is an integral element of high mountain regions, which are home to roughly 10% of the global population. Widespread cryosphere changes affect physical, biological... more
The cryosphere (including, snow, glaciers, permafrost, lake and river ice) is an integral element of high mountain regions, which are home to roughly 10% of the global population. Widespread cryosphere changes affect physical, biological and human systems in the mountains and surrounding lowlands, with impacts evident even in the ocean. Building on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5), this chapter assesses new evidence on observed recent and projected changes in the mountain cryosphere as well as associated impacts, risks and adaptation measures related to natural and human systems. Impacts in response to climate changes independently of changes in the cryosphere are not assessed in this chapter. Polar mountains are included in Chapter 3, except those in Alaska and adjacent Yukon, Iceland and Scandinavia, which are included in this chapter.
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An analysis of the climate parametrization sch eme ado pted by conventional forest gap models revealed that most mod els assume a constant climate and are diffi cult to calibrate consistently. Tree growt h showed unrealistically... more
An analysis of the climate parametrization sch eme ado pted by conventional forest gap models revealed that most mod els assume a constant climate and are diffi cult to calibrate consistently. Tree growt h showed unrealistically sensitive thres hold effects alon g ecolo gical gradients of tem perature and precipitat ion. A new parametrization was com pared wit h its predecessors in terms of the model's capability to predict realistic steady state species com positions at three test sites in the Alps. Applyin g the new model variant FORCUM to some climate-ch ange scenarios sugg ests that forest gap models are hi ghly sensitive to climate pametrizati ons, regardless of the realism with which they simulate forests for the current climate . Moreover, the precision of climate scenarios based on General Circula tion Models (GCM) , for exam ple, falls short of FOR CUM'S sensitivity. Climate- dependent processes in forest gap models should be rehearsed before these models arc use...
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We list the scientific outputs from ICRAF-SEA staff. Books, research reports, proceedings, journal articles, etc. can be obtained as long as the stock lasts, otherwise photocopies can be made available. You may also download the PDF file... more
We list the scientific outputs from ICRAF-SEA staff. Books, research reports, proceedings, journal articles, etc. can be obtained as long as the stock lasts, otherwise photocopies can be made available. You may also download the PDF file for free. This lists below are listed per type and per current year.
Das Lernprogramm "Stabilität" erlaubt es, sich grundlegend mit dem Begriff Stabilität, insbesondere der Stabilität biologischer und ökologischer Systeme, auseindanderzusetzen. The learning program "Stability" introduces the term... more
Das Lernprogramm "Stabilität" erlaubt es, sich grundlegend mit dem Begriff Stabilität, insbesondere der Stabilität biologischer und ökologischer Systeme, auseindanderzusetzen.
The learning program "Stability" introduces the term stability in general for any student interested in the behavior of systems while focusing on examples of biological and ecological systems.
The accompanying learning program is freeware and available via the given link. Copyright is with the authors and ETH Zurich. The entire learning module must not be used for any commercial purpose.
https://sysecol.ethz.ch/education/courseware/courseware-downloads.html#stability
The learning program "Stability" introduces the term stability in general for any student interested in the behavior of systems while focusing on examples of biological and ecological systems.
The accompanying learning program is freeware and available via the given link. Copyright is with the authors and ETH Zurich. The entire learning module must not be used for any commercial purpose.
https://sysecol.ethz.ch/education/courseware/courseware-downloads.html#stability
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The authors of the computer software described in this manual hereby disclaim any an al guarantees and warranties on the software or its documentation, both expressed or implied. No liability of any form shall be assumed by the authors.... more
The authors of the computer software described in this manual hereby disclaim any an al guarantees and warranties on the software or its documentation, both expressed or implied. No liability of any form shall be assumed by the authors. Any user of this software uses it at his o her own risk. This product is distributed on an "as is " basis; no fitne s f r any purpose whatsoever nor warranty of merchantability are claimed or implied. The authors reserve the right to make changes, additions, and improvements to the s ftware or documentation at any time without notice to any person or organization; no guarantee is made that further versions of either will be compatible with any other version.
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Abstract: The following text describes some latest changes, which were made to the literature management system as it is in use by the Systems Ecology Group at ETH Zurich. It complements the previous manual (FISCHLIN & NEMECEK, 2001).
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RASS forms a new component of the RAMSES (Research Aids for the Modelling and Simulation of Environmental Systems) modelling and simulation concept. It allows to automatically translate interactive RAMSES model definition programs and to... more
RASS forms a new component of the RAMSES (Research Aids for the Modelling and Simulation of Environmental Systems) modelling and simulation concept. It allows to automatically translate interactive RAMSES model definition programs and to execute them in a batch mode on a high performance computer.
The RASS software is freeware and available via the given link. Copyright is with the authors and ETH Zurich. The RASS software must not be used for any commercial purpose.
https://sysecol.ethz.ch/ramses/ramses-software-layers/rass.html
The RASS software is freeware and available via the given link. Copyright is with the authors and ETH Zurich. The RASS software must not be used for any commercial purpose.
https://sysecol.ethz.ch/ramses/ramses-software-layers/rass.html
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High altitude plants are well adapted to their present environment (Komer 1992), but their ability to adapt to the changes in climate expected over the next century remains uncertain (Guisan, Holten, Tessier et aL 1995). Chapter 3... more
High altitude plants are well adapted to their present environment (Komer 1992), but their ability to adapt to the changes in climate expected over the next century remains uncertain (Guisan, Holten, Tessier et aL 1995). Chapter 3 presented a few glimpses of plants and ecosystems ' reactions to chang-
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Calculating temperature dependence over long time periods: A comparison of methods
Mitigation priorities in the forest sector should observe following sequence: REDD2, sink enhancement, substitution of fossil fuel, and HWP3. If accounting for HWP is not done properly, the risk for an incentive for deforestation is real.... more
Mitigation priorities in the forest sector should observe following sequence: REDD2, sink enhancement, substitution of fossil fuel, and HWP3. If accounting for HWP is not done properly, the risk for an incentive for deforestation is real. To curb the disadvantages of HWP, some debiting of non-sustainable forest management as currently achieved through Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol appears a necessity. Until effective REDD activities are implemented that provide true disincentives to deforestation, HWP may continue to create some risk of furthering deforestations in developing countries that are not constrained by the Kyoto Protocol. On the other hand, if HWP accounting is done properly as part of a LULUCF4 scheme that minimizes risks of promoting deforestation and non-sustainable harvesting, HWP is to be welcomed as a means to help promoting the utilization of the climate-friendly, renewable natural resource wood. This would help mitigating climate change and in progressing towa...
This article presents general methodology for modeling complex dynamic systems, focusing on sustainability properties that emerge from tracking energy flows. We adopt the embodied energy (emergy) concept that traces all energy... more
This article presents general methodology for modeling complex dynamic systems, focusing on sustainability properties that emerge from tracking energy flows. We adopt the embodied energy (emergy) concept that traces all energy transformations required for running a process. Energy can therefore be studied in terms of all energy previously invested up to the primary sources, and sustainability can be analyzed structurally. These ideas were implemented in the bond graph framework, a modeling paradigm where variables are explicitly checked for adherence to energy conservation principles. We introduced the new Ecological Bond Graphs (EcoBG) along with the EcoBondLib Modelica library. EcoBG represent systems in a three-faceted fashion, describing dynamics at their mass, energy, and emergy facets. EcoBG offers a scalable formalism for the description of emergy dynamic equations (resolving some mathematical difficulties present in their original formulation) and new capabilities for detect...
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28.7% of Switzerland' (41'284 km2) are forested and store 68.1 Mt C. Current annual Swiss net C02 emissions tbtalled to 42.23 Mt C02 or 11.51 Mt C in 1988. This corresponds to 6%0 of world's emissions, although the Swiss... more
28.7% of Switzerland' (41'284 km2) are forested and store 68.1 Mt C. Current annual Swiss net C02 emissions tbtalled to 42.23 Mt C02 or 11.51 Mt C in 1988. This corresponds to 6%0 of world's emissions, although the Swiss population is only ca. 1%0 of that of the world. Despite these small emissions, we analyzed the following carbon fixation policies for Switzerland as a case study for· a highly industrialized country:' 1) Reforestation of uncultivated land, 2) Elevation of standing crops by a forest management optimizing standing wood volume, 3) Maximization of harvested wood for either a) fixation in endurable wood products or b) fossil fuel substitution by firewood. First each policy is analyzed in isolation and its relative contribution to reducing annual net C02 emissions is computed by using several simple mathematical forest growth models. The relative reductions expressed in percents of the gross C02 emissions from fossil fuel burnings are for policy 1) ca. 11...
The System Ecology Reports consist of preprints and technical reports. Preprints are ar-ticles, which have been submitted to scientific journals and are hereby made available to interested readers before actual publication. The technical... more
The System Ecology Reports consist of preprints and technical reports. Preprints are ar-ticles, which have been submitted to scientific journals and are hereby made available to interested readers before actual publication. The technical reports allow for an exhaustive documentation of important research and development results. Die Berichte der Systemökologie sind entweder Vorabdrucke oder technische Berichte. Die Vorabdrucke sind Artikel, welche bei einer wissenschaftlichen Zeitschrift zur Publi-
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... These are, for example, layered architectures used in distributed computing (Ghezzi et al., 2003), the idea of web service trading (Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing, ISO/IEC 10740) (Schulze et al., 2002), or XML-based... more
... These are, for example, layered architectures used in distributed computing (Ghezzi et al., 2003), the idea of web service trading (Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing, ISO/IEC 10740) (Schulze et al., 2002), or XML-based languages. ...
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This paper presents a new approach of spatiotemporally visualizing the simulation output of migratory insect dynamics and resultant vegetation changes in real-time. The visualization is capable of displaying simulated ecological phenomena... more
This paper presents a new approach of spatiotemporally visualizing the simulation output of migratory insect dynamics and resultant vegetation changes in real-time. The visualization is capable of displaying simulated ecological phenomena in an intuitive manner, which allows research results to be easily understood by a wide range of users. In order to design a fast and efficient visualization technique, a
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... Klara Vancso-Polacsek, Andreas Fischlin and Walter Schaufelberger ... References (1) ZEIGLER, B. P., Theory of Modelling and Simulation, John Wiley & Sons, 1976 (2) ZEIGLER, B. P., System Theoretic Foundations of Modelling and... more
... Klara Vancso-Polacsek, Andreas Fischlin and Walter Schaufelberger ... References (1) ZEIGLER, B. P., Theory of Modelling and Simulation, John Wiley & Sons, 1976 (2) ZEIGLER, B. P., System Theoretic Foundations of Modelling and Simulation, in: OREN, TI, ZEIGLER, B. P ...