Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams
<p>Regions of study in Ethiopia. DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of Blue Nile and Omo catchments closed at dam sites. We also report the stream flow and meteorological stations used in the study.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Hypsographic curve at dam sites. (<b>a</b>) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and (<b>b</b>) GIBE.</p> "> Figure 2 Cont.
<p>Hypsographic curve at dam sites. (<b>a</b>) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and (<b>b</b>) GIBE.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Monthly flows during the calibration period (1965–1988), at dam sites and river discharge stations. (<b>a</b>) Blue Nile basin, GERD. (<b>b</b>) Omo basin, GIBE. We also report flow components (surface/subsurface).</p> "> Figure 3 Cont.
<p>Monthly flows during the calibration period (1965–1988), at dam sites and river discharge stations. (<b>a</b>) Blue Nile basin, GERD. (<b>b</b>) Omo basin, GIBE. We also report flow components (surface/subsurface).</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Mean monthly potential hydropower productions, discharge release, and water volumes stored in the reservoir during CR (2010–2019), with No Release (S1, solid lines), and Environmental Release (S2, dotted lines). (<b>a</b>) GERD and (<b>b</b>) GIBE.</p> "> Figure 4 Cont.
<p>Mean monthly potential hydropower productions, discharge release, and water volumes stored in the reservoir during CR (2010–2019), with No Release (S1, solid lines), and Environmental Release (S2, dotted lines). (<b>a</b>) GERD and (<b>b</b>) GIBE.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>MIF loss, and energy loss for the GERD dam, depending upon of different duration of the filling period, from 1 to 10 years. Simulation during 2010–2019.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Average yearly temperature variations. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Average yearly precipitation variations. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Yearly stream flow changes in GERD and GIBE III. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>GERD. Average estimated monthly hydropower production. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 9 Cont.
<p>GERD. Average estimated monthly hydropower production. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>GIBE III. Average estimated monthly hydropower production. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 10 Cont.
<p>GIBE III. Average estimated monthly hydropower production. (<b>a</b>) Mid Century P1. (<b>b</b>) End of Century P2.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Energy production changes ΔE, against precipitation changes ΔP: (<b>a</b>) GERD and (<b>b</b>) GIBE III.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Case Study Area
2.1. GERD
2.2. GIBE I
2.3. GIBE II
2.4. GIBE III
3. Data Base
3.1. Poly-Hydro Model Setup (1965–1988)
3.2. Hydropower Production and Price
3.3. Climate Projections (2018–2100)
4. Methods
4.1. Hydrological Model
4.2. Hydropower Production Model
4.3. Hydrological and Hydropower Projections Until 2100
5. Result
5.1. Hydrological Model
5.2. Hydropower Production
5.3. GERD Operation during Filling Phase
5.4. Future Climate of the Area
5.5. Future Hydrology of the Area
5.5.1. Future Hydrology at GERD Dam
5.5.2. Future Hydrology at GIBE III Dam
5.6. Future Hydropower Production
5.6.1. GERD No Release Scenario
5.6.2. GERD Environmental Release Scenario
5.6.3. GIBE III No Release Scenario
5.6.4. Gibe III Environmental Release Scenario
6. Discussion
6.1. Hydropower Production under Climate Change
6.2. Limitations and Outlooks
7. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
GERD | Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam |
CMIP5 | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 |
CMIP6 | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 |
IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
DEM | Digital Elevation Model |
CN | Curve Number |
CGLS | Copernicus Global Land Service |
NSE | Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency |
GCM | Global Circulation Model |
EC-Earth | European Consortium Earth system model |
CCSM4 | Community System Model |
CESM2 | Community Earth System Model |
MPI-ESM | European Center Hamburg Model |
RCP | Representative Concentration Pathways |
SSP | Shared Socio-economic Pathways |
CR | Control Run 2010–2019 |
P1 | Mid Century 2050–2059 |
P2 | End of Century 2090–2099 |
S1 | No Release Scenario |
S2 | Environmental Release Scenario |
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Dams and Power Stations | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hydropower Station | Installed Power (MW) | Max Discharge (m3/s) | N° Turbines | Type of Turbines | Dam Volume (Mm3) | Dam Operation Volume (Mm3) | Basin Area (km2) |
GERD | 6000 | 4305 | 16 | Francis | 74,000 | 59,000 | 168,000 |
GIBE I | 210 | 101.5 | 3 | Francis | 830 | 711 | 4040 |
GIBE II | 420 | 101.5 | 4 | Pelton | – | – | 80 |
GIBE III | 1870 | 950 | 10 | Francis | 14,700 | 11,750 | 32,500 |
Meteorological Stations | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Station | Latitude (°) | Longitude (°) | Elevation (m a.s.l.) | Start | End |
Addis Ababa Bole | 9.03 | 38.75 | 2354 | 13 February 1957 | 24 September 2019 |
Arba Minch | 6.08 | 37.63 | 1290 | 13 February 1957 | 24 September 2019 |
Awassa | 7.08 | 38.48 | 1750 | 11 July 1972 | 24 September 2019 |
Bahar Dar | 11.60 | 37.42 | 1770 | 8 July 1961 | 31 December 1988 |
Debre Marcos | 10.33 | 37.67 | 2515 | 1 November 1953 | 31 December 1987 |
Gondar | 12.55 | 37.42 | 1967 | 1 June 1952 | 24 September 2019 |
Gore | 8.15 | 35.53 | 2002 | 1 June 1952 | 24 September 2019 |
Harar Meda | 8.73 | 38.95 | 1900 | 1 January 1951 | 31 December 1988 |
Jimma | 7.67 | 36.83 | 1725 | 1 June 1952 | 24 September 2019 |
Lekemte | 9.08 | 36.45 | 2080 | 1 December 1970 | 31 December 1987 |
Hydrological Stations | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Station | Latitude (°) | Longitude (°) | Elevation (m a.s.l.) | Start | End |
Sudan Border | 11.23 | 34.97 | 495 | 1969 | 1975 |
Tana Lake | 11.58 | 37.40 | 1787 | 1969 | 1975 |
Wenz | 8.23 | 37.58 | 1089 | 1976 | 1983 |
Wolkite | 8.25 | 37.77 | 1766 | 1978 | 1980 |
Blue Nile Basin Parameters | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Unit | Description | Value | Method | |
fv | [%] | Vegetation cover, average | 20 | Land Cover |
K | [mmd−1] | Saturated conductivity | 0.1 | Tuning |
k | [-] | Ground flow exponent | 4 | Tuning |
Wmax | [mm] | Max soil storage | 270 | Land Cover |
Ɵw/Ɵs | [-] | Water content, wilting, field capacity | 0.15/0.45 | Literature |
Omo Basin Parameters | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Unit | Description | Value | Method | |
fv | [%] | Vegetation cover, average | 20 | Land Cover |
K | [mmd−1] | Saturated conductivity | 0.2 | Tuning |
k | [-] | Ground flow exponent | 0.1 | Tuning |
Wmax | [mm] | Max soil storage | 270 | Land Cover |
Ɵw/Ɵs | [-] | Water content, wilting, field capacity | 0.15/0.45 | Literature |
River Discharge Goodness of Fit | |||
---|---|---|---|
Station | NSE/R2 | Bias% [%] | River |
Sudan Border | 0.77 | 13.7 | Nile |
Tana Lake | 0.59 | 9.5 | Nile |
Wenz | 0.53 | 24.8 | Omo |
Wolkite | 0.30 | −7.6 | Omo |
GERD | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Energy [TWh/year] | EC-EARTH | CCSM4 | ECHAM6 | EC-EARTH3 | CESM2 | ECHAM6.3 | ||
2010–2019 | 19.26 | |||||||
Mid Century | No Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 21.38 | 21.90 | 24.09 | 32.82 | 24.61 | 24.26 |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 23.65 | 24.11 | 23.34 | 32.98 | 21.98 | 24.92 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 30.91 | 22.11 | 22.13 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 26.73 | 24.75 | 25.49 | 33.29 | 25.35 | 25.75 | ||
Environmental Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 21.13 | 21.77 | 24.05 | 32.82 | 24.58 | 24.26 | |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 23.62 | 24.07 | 23.32 | 32.98 | 21.91 | 24.92 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 30.91 | 22.07 | 22.11 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 23.65 | 24.11 | 23.34 | 32.98 | 21.98 | 24.92 | ||
End Century | No Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 23.27 | 24.88 | 23.64 | 28.96 | 19.88 | 26.26 |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 23.30 | 26.29 | 22.82 | 31.59 | 20.82 | 20.28 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 34.32 | 21.89 | 28.65 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 25.21 | 30.05 | 26.68 | 35.79 | 20.82 | 27.42 | ||
Environmental Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 23.24 | 24.66 | 23.61 | 28.96 | 19.84 | 26.26 | |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 23.23 | 26.22 | 22.73 | 31.59 | 20.81 | 20.27 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 34.32 | 21.81 | 28.65 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 23.30 | 26.29 | 22.82 | 31.59 | 19.98 | 20.28 |
GIBE III | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Energy (TWh/year) | EC-EARTH | CCSM4 | ECHAM6 | EC-EARTH3 | CESM2 | ECHAM6.3 | ||
2010–2019 | 2.83 | |||||||
Mid Century | No Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 3.01 | 3.70 | 3.05 | 3.59 | 3.46 | 3.60 |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 3.48 | 4.98 | 3.39 | 2.84 | 3.06 | 3.32 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 2.48 | 2.68 | 2.21 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 3.32 | 5.52 | 3.35 | 3.27 | 2.87 | 3.11 | ||
Environmental Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 2.63 | 3.48 | 2.85 | 3.36 | 3.27 | 3.32 | |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 3.32 | 4.88 | 3.35 | 2.59 | 2.87 | 3.11 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 2.25 | 2.51 | 2.07 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 3.00 | 4.88 | 3.19 | 2.59 | 2.82 | 2.74 | ||
End Century | No Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 3.22 | 5.22 | 3.05 | 3.39 | 3.12 | 5.07 |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 2.50 | 5.18 | 3.13 | 3.96 | 2.49 | 2.18 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 3.88 | 2.61 | 3.17 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 2.44 | 7.40 | 4.75 | 4.24 | 3.50 | 2.88 | ||
Environmental Release | RCP 2.6/SSP1 2.6 | 2.89 | 4.72 | 2.69 | 2.89 | 2.92 | 4.94 | |
RCP 4.5/SSP2 4.5 | 2.25 | 4.96 | 2.86 | 3.77 | 2.33 | 2.04 | ||
SSP3 7.0 | – | – | – | 3.34 | 2.27 | 2.69 | ||
RCP 8.5/SSP5 8.5 | 2.25 | 4.96 | 2.86 | 3.77 | 2.33 | 2.04 |
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Bombelli, G.M.; Tomiet, S.; Bianchi, A.; Bocchiola, D. Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams. Water 2021, 13, 716. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050716
Bombelli GM, Tomiet S, Bianchi A, Bocchiola D. Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams. Water. 2021; 13(5):716. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050716
Chicago/Turabian StyleBombelli, Giovanni Martino, Stefano Tomiet, Alberto Bianchi, and Daniele Bocchiola. 2021. "Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams" Water 13, no. 5: 716. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050716