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The singularity is not near: slowing growth of Wikipedia

Published: 25 October 2009 Publication History

Abstract

Prior research on Wikipedia has characterized the growth in content and editors as being fundamentally exponential in nature, extrapolating current trends into the future. We show that recent editing activity suggests that Wikipedia growth has slowed, and perhaps plateaued, indicating that it may have come against its limits to growth. We measure growth, population shifts, and patterns of editor and administrator activities, contrasting these against past results where possible. Both the rate of page growth and editor growth has declined. As growth has declined, there are indicators of increased coordination and overhead costs, exclusion of newcomers, and resistance to new edits. We discuss some possible explanations for these new developments in Wikipedia including decreased opportunities for sharing existing knowledge and increased bureaucratic stress on the socio-technical system itself.

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cover image ACM Other conferences
WikiSym '09: Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Wikis and Open Collaboration
October 2009
200 pages
ISBN:9781605587301
DOI:10.1145/1641309
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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Publication History

Published: 25 October 2009

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Author Tags

  1. Wikipedia
  2. growth
  3. logistic model
  4. population
  5. power law
  6. resistance

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  • Research-article

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WikiSym '09
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WikiSym '09: 2009 International Symposium on Wikis
October 25 - 27, 2009
Florida, Orlando

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WikiSym '09 Paper Acceptance Rate 16 of 45 submissions, 36%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 69 of 145 submissions, 48%

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