Minsoo Lee
Asian Development Bank, Economics and Research Department, Department Member
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This paper examines the potential effects of the Trump administration's revisionist trade policies on Sino-American economic relations and their international trade implications. The Foreign Trade War Smash Wave Effect (FTWSWE)... more
This paper examines the potential effects of the Trump administration's revisionist trade policies on Sino-American economic relations and their international trade implications. The Foreign Trade War Smash Wave Effect (FTWSWE) Simulator attempts to assess the impact of preferential trade agreements on both countries' socioeconomic performance. The FTWSWE Simulator suggests five possible tariff rate scenarios (1%, 5%, 25%, 50%, 100%). The model examines the following indicators: (i) import-export ratios; (ii) production capacity; (iii) unemployment rate; (iv) economic desgrowth; (v) inflation rate; and (vi) poverty rate. The model investigates the economic performance of both countries between 2020 and 2025.
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business-cycle transmission is expected to be found between these two countries. This paper analyses the shock-transmission channels, including trade, monetary policy, and exchange
This report presents an overview on the trends and growth rates of foreign fee-paying (FFP) student numbers in the Christchurch - Canterbury region in different institutional levels (primary schools, secondary schools, tertiary... more
This report presents an overview on the trends and growth rates of foreign fee-paying (FFP) student numbers in the Christchurch - Canterbury region in different institutional levels (primary schools, secondary schools, tertiary institutions, and private institutions) over the previous five years and forecasts of trends and projections for growth rates of FFP student numbers up to 2007. Additionally, the report analyses the views of education providers who were interviewed by Christchurch Education Coordinator in the Education Provider Feedback Survey 2003.
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This research is interested to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on different stock markets globally. Therefore, we propose a new simulator that is entitled “The Massive Pandemic Contagious Diseases Damage on Stock Markets Simulator... more
This research is interested to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on different stock markets globally. Therefore, we propose a new simulator that is entitled “The Massive Pandemic Contagious Diseases Damage on Stock Markets Simulator (φ-Simulator).” The main objective is to evaluate from a multidimensional graphical perspective the impact of COVID-19 on different stock markets globally. The φ-Simulator can evaluate the COVID-19 impact in the short and long-run. The main objective of the φ-Simulator is to make different simulations under different levels of massive pandemic contagious disease growth rates and the stock market growth rates performance simultaneously. The application of φ-Simulator can show the impact of COVID-19 in different stock markets such as S&P 500, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Nikkei 225, DAX, Hang Seng, U.K.-FTSE, KRX, SGX, and Malaysia-FTSE. The issue of COVID-19 is a global issue, which requires an effective global integral medical assistance programs worldwide as well as a stronger and dynamic detection systems and vaccination research collaborations that will render richer welfare and will increase the opportunity to reduce the damage of COVID-19 on the stocks markets anytime and anywhere.
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This paper formulates an analytical framework to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic disease occurrence, its relevance, and implications to financial markets activity. The paper suggests a paradigm shift: a new... more
This paper formulates an analytical framework to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic disease occurrence, its relevance, and implications to financial markets activity. The paper suggests a paradigm shift: a new multidimensional geometric approach to capture all symmetrical and asymmetrical strategic graphical movement. Furthermore, the concept of stagpression is introduced, a new economic phenomenon to explain the uncharted territory for the world economies and financial markets are getting into. The Massive Pandemic Contagious Diseases Damage on Stock Markets Simulator (φ-Simulator) to evaluate the determinants of capital markets behavior in the presence of an infectious disease outbreak. The model investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of ten stock markets, including S&P 500, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Nikkei 225, DAX, Hang Seng, U.K.-FTSE, KRX, SGX, and Malaysia-FTSE.
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The Googlekonomia is an alternative economic research technique that focuses on searching the best and easy access to a large number of economic meta-database and documents from different sources on the internet. The main objective of... more
The Googlekonomia is an alternative economic research technique that focuses on searching the best and easy access to a large number of economic meta-database and documents from different sources on the internet. The main objective of Googlekonomia is the technical evaluation of trustworthy economic meta-database and documents from different websites and search engines. Subsequently, the Googlekonomia is able to monitor, evaluate, and classify a large number of economic meta-database and documents to study and solve various economic problems. Finally, the Googlekonomia evaluates a large number of economic meta-database and documents accessible in different internet sources and search engines based on the use of artificial intelligence together with a real-time multi-dimensional graphical modeling approach.
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Moving up the global value chain requires an enabling innovation ecosystem alongside economy-specific endowments, a mix of supportive policies in broad areas of infrastructure and institutions, and other enabling factors. Examining sample... more
Moving up the global value chain requires an enabling innovation ecosystem alongside economy-specific endowments, a mix of supportive policies in broad areas of infrastructure and institutions, and other enabling factors. Examining sample economies globally and in developing Asia, the empirical results suggest that during the transition from a low level of upgrading in a global value chain to a medium-level one, efforts should focus on increasing the scale of innovation inputs, allowing firms to improve in many areas of their capacity to innovate. To move higher up a global value chain, the design of innovation policies should gradually emphasize the production of technological, knowledge, and creative outputs.
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While developing Asia has traditionally prioritized growth over equality, recent years have witnessed a growing popular demand for more inclusive growth in the region. In this connection, Korea, which has managed to combine rapid economic... more
While developing Asia has traditionally prioritized growth over equality, recent years have witnessed a growing popular demand for more inclusive growth in the region. In this connection, Korea, which has managed to combine rapid economic growth and moderate inequality levels, offers potentially valuable lessons for developing Asia. The central objective of our paper is to analyze the relationship between growth policy and inequality in Korea in order to identify relevant policy implications for developing Asia. According to our analysis, the one policy that stands out as a driver of both rapid economic growth and more equal income distribution is large and systematic investments in public education. The broader positive lesson from the Korean experience is that growth and inequality do not necessarily go hand in hand, and government policy can make a difference.
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Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbours have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is... more
Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbours have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is becoming an increasingly important source of final demand. Two empirical techniques are used to examine the likely economic impact of growth deceleration in the PRC on other Asian economies: (1) a single-equation approach that captures the trade channel; and (2) a global vector autoregressive model that captures the effects beyond the trade channel. The results of both analyses confirm that deceleration in the PRC will have a non-negligible negative effect on other economies, especially on East and Southeast Asian economies. An out-of-sample analysis to tease out the effects of slower growth in the PRC from the recent growth performance of selected Southeast Asian economies suggests that the PRC effect is contributing to the growth dynamics of this region but is not always dominant.
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ABSTRACT The three pillars of Asian energy security are an adequate, reliable supply; environmental sustainability; and affordable access for all. As Asians become more affluent, managing demand by tackling outmoded subsidies so prices... more
ABSTRACT The three pillars of Asian energy security are an adequate, reliable supply; environmental sustainability; and affordable access for all. As Asians become more affluent, managing demand by tackling outmoded subsidies so prices reflect true costs, exploring green innovations in technology and prudent infrastructure design, and changing behavior will be crucial to achieving security as will expanding both renewable and nonrenewable sources in an environmentally sound and cost-effective manner. Without radical changes to the region’s energy mix, oil consumption will double, natural gas consumption will triple, and coal consumption will increase by 81%. This would double carbon dioxide emissions to nearly 24 billion tons per year by 2035 which is more than the 22 billion tons experts see as the maximum sustainable emissions for the whole world. To fully manage demand and explore new sources, cooperative programs that integrate energy delivery systems regionally must be implemented. Jointly promoting energy savings and security does not require new technology or pose high costs, but it does require the political will to cooperate and the confidence that makes cooperation possible. Cross-border collaboration is technologically and commercially viable. What is missing is the political commitment to cooperate in energy markets and to build the necessary infrastructure.
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ABSTRACT Based on a low level of elasticity of substitution between labour and capital in the transitional economies, this paper theoretically suggests how they should be able to reach a stable growth path after a period of rapid dynamic... more
ABSTRACT Based on a low level of elasticity of substitution between labour and capital in the transitional economies, this paper theoretically suggests how they should be able to reach a stable growth path after a period of rapid dynamic short-run movement. The paper places particular emphasis on the role of government fiscal policy in exploring this phenomenon.
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ABSTRACT This paper empirically examines the price effects of monetary policy shocks in New Zealand. Empirical analysis incorporates variables suggested by a hybrid New Open Economy Macroeconomic (NOEM) model, allowing both ‘producer and... more
ABSTRACT This paper empirically examines the price effects of monetary policy shocks in New Zealand. Empirical analysis incorporates variables suggested by a hybrid New Open Economy Macroeconomic (NOEM) model, allowing both ‘producer and local currency pricing to market (PCP and LCP-PTM)’ activities of foreign exporters. Empirical findings indicate the absence of any price puzzle and show that New Zealand producer price index (PPI) responds more sluggishly than consumer price index (CPI) due to a restrictive domestic monetary stance; suggesting the differences between the exchange rate pass-through of monetary policy shocks to CPI and PPI resulting from exporters’ different pricing strategies.
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This note empirically examines the existence of common trend between the bilateral real exchange rates of Australia and New Zealand with two of their major trading partners, Japan and the United States, as base countries. Results from... more
This note empirically examines the existence of common trend between the bilateral real exchange rates of Australia and New Zealand with two of their major trading partners, Japan and the United States, as base countries. Results from Johansen cointegration analysis show that New Zealand and Australia bilateral real exchange rates with Japan as the base country share a common stochastic trend, which can be interpreted in terms of an optimum currency area. This no longer holds should the United States be selected as the base country. This might shed light on the impact of comparative advantage in the regional trade among Australia, New Zealand, and Japan in a liberalized environment.
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In this paper, we examine the relationships between the New Zealand Stock Index and a set of seven macroeconomic variables from January 1990 to January 2003 using cointegration tests. Specifically, we employ the Johansen Maximum... more
In this paper, we examine the relationships between the New Zealand Stock Index and a set of seven macroeconomic variables from January 1990 to January 2003 using cointegration tests. Specifically, we employ the Johansen Maximum Likelihood and Granger-causality tests to determine whether the New Zealand Stock Index is a leading indicator for macroeconomic variables. In addition, this paper also investigates the short run dynamic linkages between NZSE40 and macroeconomic variables using innovation accounting analyses. In general, the NZSE40 is consistently determined by the interest rate, money supply and real GDP and there is no evidence that the New Zealand Stock Index is a leading indicator for changes in macroeconomic variables.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors affecting consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for organics. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data at five retail... more
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors affecting consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for organics. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data at five retail stores in metropolitan Bangkok. Exploratory factor analysis and the double-bound contingent valuation method were used for analysis. Findings – Results indicate WTP premiums of 88, 51 and 51 per cent for kale, jasmine rice and pork, respectively. Analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay a premium if they have already purchased organic products, have good health, strong ethical and environmental concerns, think that organic products provide greater quality and health benefits, and reside in the city. Respondents with children, however, are less likely to pay a premium for organic products. Analysis also indicates that the price premium hinders purchase. Practical implications – Efforts should be made by policymakers, together with markete...
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Research Interests: Economics and New Zealand
This study investigates the factors affecting consumers’ decisions to purchase organic products. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data from consumers who are primary shoppers for their households at five retail... more
This study investigates the factors affecting consumers’ decisions to purchase organic products. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data from consumers who are primary shoppers for their households at five retail stores in the Bangkok metropolitan area. Using psychological and socio-demographics variables, exploratory factor analysis and logistic regression was used to examine consumers’ decisions to purchase organic products. Results suggest that consumers who are knowledgeable about organic products often purchase groceries at natural/health food stores, are concerned about health and food safety, and are more likely to purchase organic products. In addition, middle-aged female consumers who are highly educated and in the high income group are more likely to be organic consumers. In contrast, households who often dine out or consume takeaway food are less likely to purchase organic products.
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Journal of Economic Policy Reform Vol. 10, No. 3, 241260, September 2007 ... ISSN 17487870 Print/ISSN 17487889 Online/07/030241-20 © 2007 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/17487870701434443 ... MD. SHAHNAWAZ KARIM*, MINSOO LEE** &... more
Journal of Economic Policy Reform Vol. 10, No. 3, 241260, September 2007 ... ISSN 17487870 Print/ISSN 17487889 Online/07/030241-20 © 2007 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/17487870701434443 ... MD. SHAHNAWAZ KARIM*, MINSOO LEE** & ...
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This article analyses the dynamic effects of un-expected domestic and foreign monetary policy shocks on industrial output in New Zealand based on a new open economy macroeconomic model. Empirical analyses are performed using unrestricted... more
This article analyses the dynamic effects of un-expected domestic and foreign monetary policy shocks on industrial output in New Zealand based on a new open economy macroeconomic model. Empirical analyses are performed using unrestricted recursive open economy ...
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There has been a high degree of economic and financial integration between Australia and New Zealand with free trade agreements linking the capital and labor markets. Given a strong economic relationship, business-cycle transmission is... more
There has been a high degree of economic and financial integration between Australia and New Zealand with free trade agreements linking the capital and labor markets. Given a strong economic relationship, business-cycle transmission is expected to exist between the two countries. By analyzing the shock-transmission channels via trade, monetary policy, and exchange rates between Australia and New Zealand we can infer that if Australia and New Zealand trade less, have more similar monetary policy structure, or have less similar economic structures they would have stronger economy correlation. The results also show that the highly integrated banking system between Australia and New Zealand is an additional avenue for shock transmission between both countries.
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ABSTRACT The global crisis highlights the continued vulnerability of developing countries to shocks from advanced economies. Just a few years after the global crisis, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has emerged as the single biggest... more
ABSTRACT The global crisis highlights the continued vulnerability of developing countries to shocks from advanced economies. Just a few years after the global crisis, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has emerged as the single biggest threat to the global outlook. In this paper, we apply the event study methodology to gauge the scope for financial contagion from the EU to developing countries. More specifically, we estimate the responsiveness of equity and bond markets in developing countries to global crisis period and eurozone crisis news. Overall, we find that whereas global crisis period had a consistently negative effect on returns of equity and bond markets in developing countries, the effect of eurozone crisis news was more mixed and limited.
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This paper formulates an analytical framework to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic disease occurrence, its relevance, and implications to financial markets activity. The paper suggests a paradigm shift: a new... more
This paper formulates an analytical framework to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic disease occurrence, its relevance, and implications to financial markets activity. The paper suggests a paradigm shift: a new multidimensional geometric approach to capture all symmetrical and asymmetrical strategic graphical movement. Furthermore, the concept of stagpression is introduced, a new economic phenomenon to explain the uncharted territory for the world economies and financial markets are getting into. The Massive Pandemic Contagious Diseases Damage on Stock Markets Simulator (φ-Simulator) to evaluate the determinants of capital markets behavior in the presence of an infectious disease outbreak. The model investigates the impact of Covid-19 on the performance of ten stock markets, including S&P 500, TWSE, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Nikkei 225, DAX, Hang Seng, U.K.-FTSE, KRX, SGX, and Malaysia-FTSE.
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Over the past 60 years, the social security system has continued to advance with the development of the economy. Especially since China's Reform and Opening-up, the role and status of social security have become more and more prominent.... more
Over the past 60 years, the social security system has continued to advance with the development of the economy. Especially since China's Reform and Opening-up, the role and status of social security have become more and more prominent. With the evolution of value concepts and the transformation of the system interacted with each other, China's social security has embarked on a complicated track of establishing and reform. In 2003, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China promulgated the "Central Committee's Decision on Several Issues Concerning the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System" and proposed that accelerating to found a social security scheme that is matching with the level of economic development. Thus, the social security can become an integral part of the economic system reform. It was not until the Tenth National Congress in 2004, the constitutional amendment was passed, which the provisions of "establishing a sound social security system" were officially included into the constitution, demonstrating that the social security system has formally become a necessary basic institutional arrangement. The status of the social security in China has gradually increased, and the whole society has been increasingly valued its role.
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The Googlekonomia is an alternative economic research technique that focuses on searching the best and easy access to a large number of economic metadatabase and documents from different sources on the internet. The main objective of... more
The Googlekonomia is an alternative economic research technique that focuses on searching the best and easy access to a large number of economic metadatabase and documents from different sources on the internet. The main objective of Googlekonomia is the technical evaluation of trustworthy economic metadatabase and documents from different websites and search engines. Subsequently, the Googlekonomia is able to monitor, evaluate, and classify a large number of economic metadatabase and documents to study and solve various economic problems. Finally, the Googlekonomia evaluates a large number of economic metadatabase and documents access to the internet sources and search engines based on the use of artificial intelligence together with a real-time multi-dimensional graphical modeling approach.
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We use monthly time series data for Poland and Hungary to assess the impact of differences in the pace of implementation of economic reforms. The selected policy variables are a measure of reforms in both the domestic and external sectors... more
We use monthly time series data for Poland and Hungary to assess the impact of differences in the pace of implementation of economic reforms. The selected policy variables are a measure of reforms in both the domestic and external sectors of the economy, and they also indicate the initial level of distortions. We use impulse response analysis to measure the effect of changes in the interest rate, the exchange rate, and the share of exports to the European Union on each other and on industrial production. Our results indicate that a faster rate of implementation results in a system that quickly adjusts to a new equilibrium. The exception for Poland is the impact of the interest rate on production, indicating that domestic reforms may not yet be complete. Our results show that, when compared with Hungary, faster reform implementation gives Poland more policy options in one sector with less destabilization in another.