For over three years Ukraine has withstood Russia's full scale invasion of the country through a determined resistance and crucial military aid from Western powers. With Donald Trump returning to the White House, however, it is unknown if the scale of this aid from its most powerful ally will continue. Trump has frequently stated he intends to end the war as soon as possible, and in February 2025 made overtures to the Russians about ending the war. Although it is still unclear what an American-brokered peace deal would look like, the sudden policy change from America has left Ukraine unsure about what military aid it can rely on in future.
Which countries have provided the most aid?
The United States has been by far the
largest single contributor of military aid to Ukraine, with military aid as of December 2024 valued at approximately 64 billion euros, followed by Germany, which committed 12.6 billion euros. As
a share of gross domestic product, Estonia has provided the most aid to Ukraine, with its aid to Ukraine valued at a significant 2.2 percent of its GDP, followed by Denmark at 2.17 percent, and Lithuania at 1.8 percent.
Support for sending further aid has however been wavering, especially among the Republican Party in the United States. In November 2024, for example, 42 percent of Republicans believed the U.S. was sending too much aid to Ukraine, up from just nine percent in March 2022. In an effort to shore up America's support for the Ukrainian cause, a potential deal allowing American access to
critical rare earth minerals in Ukraine has been in the works for several weeks. The full-terms of this deal are as of yet not known, although Ukraine will certainly hope to tie future military aid and security guarantees into it.
Western weapons and the course of the war
In the weeks following the invasion, a wide range of countries began to provide military aid to Ukraine, including
infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). After the initial Russian advance was resisted, Ukraine sought more advanced
artillery, especially multi rocket launcher systems. The donation of American HIMARS, rocket artillery accurate at long-distances, was crucial to Ukraine’s war effort at this stage, allowing Ukraine to push Russia’s armies out of the North East of the country. HIMARS systems also helped to degrade Russian forces around Kherson, with
Russia being forced to withdraw from the key southern city in November. During the winter of 2022/23, as Ukraine prepared for a counter-offensive, attention turned to securing more advanced
main battle tanks from Ukraine's western allies, especially the German
Leopard 2 tanks. The success of 2022 was however, not repeated in 2023, as Ukraine struggled to break through well-defended Russian positions. Although Ukraine did start to receive
F-16 fighter-jets in 2024, new Western weapons were not able to turn the tide of the war that year either, with hold-ups to aid in the
U.S. congress also causing problems for the Ukrainians.
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