Probability Using

Set Notation
Jamie Frost
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Teacher Notes
Prerequisite
Knowledge Future Links
• Probability of mutually exclusive • Addition law for probability.
events. • Conditional probability law.
• Probability of dependent and
independent events.
• Set notation.

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Recap: Set Notation
A set is:
a collection of values, with no
duplicates, and where
? the order of its
value does not matter.
e.g.
The circles
represent:
𝜉 𝐴 𝐵 sets
?
9 −1
4 The numbers
3 6 represent:
The rectangle 0 elements (i.e.
represents: values)
? within
the set of each set.
everything
being ?
considered. We
use (said “xi”)
to indicate this
set.
Recap: Operations on Sets

The Venn diagram shows the sets

and , where
𝜉𝐴 𝐵 Determine the sets:
32 4 a
1 5 b
6 c is the intersection is the union
d of and and gives of and and
e the items in and . gives the
items in or .

𝐴∩ 𝐵 𝐴∪ 𝐵

𝐴∩𝐵= {2}
a ? 𝜉𝐴 𝜉𝐴
𝐵 𝐵
b ?
c ?
d ? 𝐴∩ 𝐵′ 𝐴′
e ? 𝜉𝐴 𝜉𝐴
𝐵 𝐵
Using Sets to Represent Events

“The probability of rolling a 6 on “The probability of rolling an

a fair dice.” even number.”

We may be interested in the But we may be interested in the

probability of a very specific probability of a collection of
outcome. outcomes.
1 3
𝑃 ( 1 )= 𝑃 ( 2∨ 4∨6 ) =
6 6 We should
instead
This is not
write
proper
where is
notation.
some set
of
where where outcomes.
We say is
an event.
! In probability, an event is a set of
one or more outcomes. is the
probability that an outcome within the
Probabilities of Mutually Exclusive Events
A fair spinner with sections labelled to is spun and the outcome
recorded.
Let be the event that the outcome was a multiple of .
Let
a be the event that the outcome was more than a multiple of .
b Specify the sets and
c Determine , and .
What do you notice about the relationship between these
probabilities?
a 𝜉
𝐴 𝐵
3 6 1 4
b 9 12 7 10
Out of the
outcomes, 25 8 11
are in the set .

There are no
outcomes in There is no overlap
and in . between the events
c and , so the circles for
these sets should not
overlap.
Probabilities of Mutually Exclusive Events

! For mutually exclusive events 𝜉

(which means they can’t happen at the
same time):
𝐴 𝐵
and
is the ‘empty set’, so means “there are no
outcomes which are in and in ”

𝜉 In this Venn diagram, which

events are mutually
exclusive?
and because they do
𝐴 𝐵 𝐶 not overlap.

If and are not mutually exclusive, we can find using the

addition rule, which we cover in skill 634.
Example Test Your
Understanding
Two events and are such that 1 , and are events such that and
Explain the significance of are mutually exclusive.
a this. a Draw a Venn diagram to
b Draw a Venn diagram to represent this relationship.
represent this relationship. b Given that , and , determine
c State the value of the probability of
d Given that and , determine .

a S and V must
𝜉 be separate,
a and are mutually exclusive. but T is not
stated to be
? mutually
b 𝜉 𝐴 𝐵 𝑆 𝑇 𝑉
exclusive
with S or V,
so should
overlap with
them.
b 𝑃 ( 𝑆 ∪ 𝑉 )=0.2+0.4=𝟎
? .𝟔
c 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) =𝟎
d 𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =0.3+ 0.5=𝟎 .𝟖
Finding Probabilities using Venn Diagrams

𝜉𝐴 The Venn diagram shows the number of

𝐵 elements in each region.
103 Determine the probability of:
132 a
b
6 4 c
𝐶 d
e

Total elements:
We have previously
seen a variant of a
Venn diagram where
we have one number a
in each region,
representing the b
number of c
elements in that
region rather than the d
elements themselves.
e
 Show

Test Your Understanding all

solutio
ns

2 The Venn diagram shows the

𝜉
probability of each region.
0.15
0.3 0.2 Determine the probability of:
0.10.05
0.2 a
𝐴 𝐵 𝐶 b
c
d
e
f
g

𝑃 ( 𝐴)=0.3+0.2=𝟎.𝟓
The third and final a ?
type of Venn diagram b ?
is where the number c ?
in each region is a d ?
probability rather than
a frequency.
e ?
f ?
g ?
Forming the Venn Diagram Yourself
Two students Alice and Barry are often late for
school.
and are the events that Alice and Barry are late.

For a randomly selected day, determine the

probability that Alice is late but Barry is not.
Start with a blank Venn
diagram, where all events
𝜉𝐴 𝐵 overlap.
Put the most ‘specific’ outcomes
0.3 0.4 0.1 first. and can be put in
immediately because each is only
0.2 a single region.

The total probability

The probabilities in the region is .
across all regions
sum to . 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ′ )=𝟎. 𝟑
Test Your Understanding
3 For the events and , 𝜉𝑆 𝑇
, and .
Calculate . 0.1 0.49
0.34
0.07
?

𝑃 ( 𝑇 ) =0.49+0.34

4 The events and are such that 𝜉𝐴 𝐵

Note that it’s
not always
,. possible to
Determine:
0.3 0.5 work out the
probability in
a
?
0.2 every
b individual
region.

𝑃 ( 𝐴∪𝐵 ) =0.3+0.5
a