Discrete Random Variables
Jamie Frost
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Teacher Notes
Prerequisite
Knowledge Future Links
• Mutually exclusive events • Binomial distribution
• Poisson distribution
• Geometric distribution
• Negative binomial distribution
• Expected value and variance of
discrete random variables
• Sums of discrete random variables
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Skills in this Lesson
548 Discrete random variables, including functional notation for probability distributions
548a Determine unknown probabilities or connect probabilities in the probability distribution of a
discrete random variable.
548b Determine the probability of the sum of two or more outcomes from the same discrete random
variable.
548c Determine a probability using a functional notation for the probability.
548d Recognise situations under which the discrete uniform distribution is likely to be an appropriate
model.
548e Calculate probabilities using a discrete uniform distribution.
548f Determine a constant in a function for a probability distribution.
548g Determine a probability using a probability function defined recursively.
548h Determine the output of a cumulative distribution function given theDr Frost Learning
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What are Discrete Random Variables?
You may already be familiar with a variable in
statistics representing a collection of values. It
could for example be the collected heights of
people in the class.
A random variable is simply a variable with
probabilities associated with each outcome. If the
variable is a discrete quantity, then this is known as a
discrete random variable.
What are Discrete Random Variables?
A random variable represents a single
experiment/trial. It consists of outcomes with a
probability for each.
Notation:
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 )
The …the …is the
probabilit outcome specific
y that… of the outcome
random
variable
For the “probability that the outcome was 3”, we could write , or
for shorthand, with a lowercase . If the latter is used, it should be
unambiguous what random variable we are referring to.
Determining Unknown Probabilities
A discrete random variable has the probability distribution given by
Determine the value of .
What is the key
property of any
probability
distribution?
The probabilities
across all outcomes
sum to 1.
Harder Example with Probability
Relationships
A discrete random variable has the probability distribution given by
The probability of an outcome of at least 2 is twice the probability of
an outcome of at most 2. Determine the values of and .
Use the information “Probability of
at least 2 is twice that of at most
2”.
Form an equation using the fact
that all the probabilities sum to 1.
Use the simultaneous
equation solver on your
calculator.
Solving simultaneously:
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548a
s/
1 A discrete random variable has the probability distribution given by
Given that is twice the value of , determine the values of and .
?
Solving simultaneously:
Probability Distribution for a Sum of Random
Variables
A discrete random variable has the following distribution,
representing the possible outcomes of a three-sided spinner:
We multiply the
probabilities from
the two spinners
to get the
If two random variables and represent two spins of thisprobability of the
spinner, determine the probability distribution of . combined
outcomes. Then
add the
probabilities from
Possibilities each possibility.
? ?
? ? Check
these
? ? sum
to 1.
? ?
? ?
The minimum sum is and the List the possible outcomes for the two
maximum . spinners that would result in this sum.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548b
s/
2 [Edexcel AS Oct 2020 Stats Q3]
In a game, a player can score 0,1,2,3 or 4 points each time the game is
played.
The random variable S, representing the player's score, has the
following probability distribution where , and are constants.
The probability of scoring less than 2 points is twice the probability of
scoring at least 2 points.
Each game is independent of previous games played.
John plays the game twice and adds the two scores together to get a
total.
𝑃 ( 4 ,2∨3 ,3∨2,4 )
Calculate the probability that the total is 6 points.
Hint: Form two equations in terms of to determine . It’s not
possible to work out the values of and , but only is needed.
Probability Distributions as Tables vs
Functions
A probability distribution can be written in two
ways:
Advantage:
Probability of each
As a table: outcome is explicit.
As a function: Advantages:
• More concise
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) = {
0 .1 𝑥 𝑥=1 , 2 , 3 , 4
0 otherwise
representation.
• Can express an
underlying formula that
works out the probability
from the outcome (e.g. see
This is known as a piecewise Poisson 840 and Binomial
function (skill 487) allowing us to distributions 639).
have different expressions based on • Can represent distributions
the input (the outcome). Let’s with infinitely many
explore how to use it… outcomes (e.g. geometric
Converting From Functional to Table Form
As a function:
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) = {
0 .1 𝑥 𝑥=1 , 2 , 3 , 4
0 otherwise
The outcomes are on the right of the
piecewise function. The ‘otherwise’
row makes explicit that the
probability is 0 for any outcome
other than 1 to 4.
𝟎 ?. 𝟏 𝟎 ?. 𝟐 𝟎 ?. 𝟑 𝟎 .? 𝟒
To check,
To calculate , use the Similarly, Similarly, ensure
expression on the left your
associated with this probabilitie
outcome. s sum to 1.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548c
s/
3 A random variable has the
distribution:
Determine:
a
b
Use the row for
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =2 ) =0.2×2=𝟎.𝟒
a ?
b Use the row for
?
Discrete Uniform Distributions
! A discrete uniform For what situations would it be useful
distribution is when to model as a discrete uniform
the probability of distribution?
each outcome is For any situation where we want
equal. ‘fairness’ without bias towards a
particular outcome.
e.g. “the throw of a fair/unbiased coin”
or “the throw of a fair dice”.
Distribution as a table:
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548e
s/
4 In meteorology, oktas are a scale from 0 to 8 which
indicates how many ths of the sky is covered by
cloud. For example 0 oktas indicates a clear sky, and
8 oktas complete cloud coverage. Oktas are always
recorded as a whole number.
Let be the numbers of oktas of cloud coverage at a
given time, modelled as a discrete uniform
distribution.
Determine .
There are 9
integers
? between 0
and 8
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥7) =𝑃 ( 𝑋=7) +𝑃 ( 𝑋=8)
inclusive.
Determining a Constant in a Probability
Function
A random variable has the distribution:
Determine the value of .
a
Hence determine
b
Substitute each of into
the probability function to
a get a table of
? ? ? probabilities.
Use the fact that the
probabilities sum to 1 to
form and solve an
equation.
We know that , so
substitute this
b value of in.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548f
s/
5 [Edexcel A2 June 2018 P3 Q3d (Edited)]
In an experiment a group of children each repeatedly throw a dart at
a target. For each child, the random variable represents the number
of the throw on which the dart first hits the target.
Thomas assumes that in this experiment no child will need more than
10 throws for the dart to hit the target for the first time. He
models as
where is a constant.
Find the value of .
(4 marks)
( 10 × 0.01 ) +45 𝛼=1
Recursively Defined Probability Functions
A random variable has the distribution:
Determine the value of .
Interestingly, the probability function
is defined in terms of itself!
? ? If we substitute into the
function above, we get:
We therefore need to know
to calculate .
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548g
s/
6 [OCR A2 June 2018 P2 Q12i Edited]
The discrete random variable takes values 1, 2, 3, 4 and
5, and its probability distribution is defined as follows.
where is a constant.
Find the value of .
1 1 1 1 ?
𝑎+ 𝑎+ 𝑎+ 𝑎+ 𝑎=1
2 4 8 16
Cumulative Distribution Functions
You may be familiar with the
idea of cumulative
frequency graphs, which
show the running total of Similarly, cumulative
the frequency. distribution functions
120 indicate the running total
of probability up to a
75 particular outcome, i.e.
Cumulative
This means
that values 𝐹 (𝑥)
Freq
have a
length up to 1
cm.
(cm)
30
If the outcomes go from 1 to 5, then the 𝑥
probability that is 1, because the running total
12 3 4 5
of probability by the last outcome is 1.
Cumulative Distribution Functions
Determine the cumulative distribution function of the following
discrete uniform distribution.
? ? ? ?
𝐹 (1)=𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤1)=𝑃(𝑋=1) 𝐹 (2)=𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤2)= 𝑃 ( 𝑋=1 )+ 𝑃 ( 𝑋=2) If is the last outcome,
then
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548h
s/
7 A probability distribution is defined as
Determine the value of .
a Hence determine
b
Form to a table
? of probabilities to
Probabilities in help us work
distribution sum to out .
1.
b simply means the
probability of an
? outcome ‘up to’ 2.
Determining Constants in CDFs
for the
last
What relationships and will be the
outcome.
can you spot between same for the first
the probability function outcome.
and the cumulative
probability function? Since is the running total of
What values will we probability, each probability in the
always know? original function is the difference
between its corresponding value of
and the cumulative probability below
that.
Test Your Understanding drfrost.org/ 548i
s/
8 [Edexcel S1 June 2011 Q3a]
The discrete random variable has probability distribution
The cumulative distribution function of is given in the following table.
where is a constant.
Find the values of and .
𝑎=𝟎 .𝟏 ?
