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Chapter One: Thinking Critically with
Psychological Science
Overview
The Need for Psychological Science
Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask
and Answer Questions
Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life
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The Need for Psychological Science
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Did we know it all
REUTERS/U.S. Coast Guard/Handout
along?
Hindsight bias
Tendency to believe,
HINDSIGHT BIAS
after learning an When drilling the Deepwater Horizon
outcome, that we could oil well in 2010, oil industry employees
took some shortcuts and ignored
have predicted it. some warning signs, without intending
Also known as the to harm the environment or their
companies’ reputations.
I-knew-it-all-along
phenomenon. After the resulting Gulf oil spill, with
the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the
foolishness of those judgments
became obvious.
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The Limits of Intuition
WREAT → WATER and Common Sense
ETRYN → ENTRY
GRABE → BARGE
Overconfidence
• About how many People tend to think
seconds do you think it they know more than
would take you to they do.
unscramble each This occurs in
anagram? academic and social
behavior.
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The Need for Psychological Science
Why is intuition overused and errors made?
Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to
perceive patterns in random events often lead us to
overestimate our intuition.
But scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from
illusion.
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The Scientific Attitude
Curiosity
Skepticism
Humility
Let’s take a closer look at each of these.
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The Scientific Attitude
Curiosity
Includes a passion to explore and understand the
world without misleading or being misled
Questions to consider
What do you mean?
How do you know?
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The Scientific Attitude
Thinking critically
Critical thinking refers to a more careful style of
forming and evaluating knowledge than simply using
intuition.
In addition to the scientific method, critical thinking
helps develop more effective and accurate ways to
figure out what makes people do, think, and feel the
things they do.
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The Scientific
Attitude
Skepticism
Supports questions
about behavior and
mental processes:
What do you mean?
AP Photo/Alan Diaz
How do you know?
THE AMAZING RANDI: Magician
and skeptic James Randi has tested
and debunked a variety of psychic
phenomena.
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The Scientific Attitude
Humility
Involves awareness that mistakes are possible and
willingness to be surprised
One of psychology’s early mottos: “The rat is always
right.”
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The Scientific Method
Scientific method is the process of testing
ideas about the world by
Setting up situations that test our ideas
If the data do not fit our ideas, then ideas are modified and
tested again.
Making careful, organized observations
Analyzing whether the data fit with our ideas
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The Scientific Method
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The Scientific Method
Theory
Explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes
observations and predicts behaviors or events
Hypothesis
Testable prediction, often implied by a theory
Operational definition
Carefully worded statement of the exact procedures (operations)
used in a research study
Replication
Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different
participants in different situations, to see whether the basic
finding extends to other participants and circumstances
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The Scientific Method
Testing hypothesis and refining theories
Description
Correlation
Causation
Experiments
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Research Strategies: Description
Descriptive research is a systematic, objective
observation of people
The goal is to provide a clear, accurate picture of
people’s behaviors, thoughts, and attributes
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Description
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Research Strategies: Correlation
General Definition: an observation that two
traits or attributes are related to each other
(thus, they are “co”-related)
Scientific definition: a measure of how closely
two factors vary together, or how well you can
predict a change in one from observing a
change in the other
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Correlation
Positive correlation (between 0 and +1.00)
Indicates a direct relationship, meaning that two things
increase together or decrease together
Negative correlation (between 0 and −1.00)
Indicates an inverse relationship: As one thing increases,
the other decreases.
Correlation coefficient
Provides a statistical measure of how closely two things
vary together and how well one predicts the other
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SCATTERPLOTS, SHOWING PATTERNS OF CORRELATION
Correlations can range from +1.00 (scores on one measure
increase in direct proportion to scores on another), to 0.00
(no relationship), to –1.00 (scores on one measure
decrease precisely as scores rise on the other).
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Research Strategies: Regression Toward
the Mean
Illusory correlation
Refers to the perception of a relationship between two
variables when only a minor or no relationship
actually exists
May be fed by regression toward the mean
Regression toward the mean
Refers to the tendency for extreme or unusual scores
or events to fall back (regress) toward the average
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Correlation and Causation
No matter how strong the relationship,
correlation does not prove causation.
Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause-
effect relationship, but does not prove it.
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THREE POSSIBLE CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS
People low in self-esteem are more likely to report
depression than are those high in self-esteem. One
possible explanation of this negative correlation is that a bad
self-image causes depressed feelings. But, as the diagram
indicates, other cause-effect relationships are possible.
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Research Strategies: Experimentation
With experiments, researchers can focus on
the possible effects of one or more factors in
several ways.
Manipulating the factors of interest to
determine their effects
Holding constant (“controlling”) other factors
Experimental group and control group
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Experimentation
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Comparing Research Methods
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THE NORMAL CURVE
Scores on aptitude tests tend to form a normal, or bell
shaped, curve. For example, the most commonly used
intelligence test, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale,
calls the average score 100.
