The Global Coal Industry, Nova Scotia's Energy Plan and The Donkin Coal Project
The Global Coal Industry, Nova Scotia's Energy Plan and The Donkin Coal Project
The Global Coal Industry, Nova Scotia's Energy Plan and The Donkin Coal Project
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The information contained herein is derived from public sources including the Donkin Project specific information available at www.sedar.com Certain information regarding Erdene ("the Company") contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements may include estimates, plans, expectations, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or other statements that are not statements of fact. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to have been correct. The Company cautions that actual performance will be affected by a number of factors, many of which are beyond the Company's control, and that future events and results may vary substantially from what the Company currently foresees. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration results, continued availability of capital and financing and general economic, market or business conditions. The Company's forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The information contained herein is stated as of the current date and subject to change after that date.
Limits the outflow of money from Nova Scotia to source foreign fuel supply
Outline
Company
Project
Coal Consumption
Economy
Environment Future Conclusions
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Aiding the community through Donkin JointVenture in numerous causes such as the Donkin Veterans Memorial Park, and the renovation of the Donkin Community Center
A leader in Community & Sustainable Development activities in the mining industry of Mongolia, including partnering with the Canadian Government on a farming initiative
www.catapultcamp.com
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THE PROJECT
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SIGNIFICANT
INFRASTRUCTURE IN PLACE
Greater than $100M invested in site infrastructure Near industrial region, centered by the Port of Sydney
EXPERIENCED WORKFORCE
Over 300 years of coal mining with >300 Mt mined Coal industry directly employed 1,650 people in 2000
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11
No. 26 Colliery
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Strategically Located
Lowest Transport Costs in Canada (Rail Option)
Distance to Port
1,400 1,200 1,000
$80
600
400 200 0 CLINE GRANDE CACHE WALTER (Canada) ERDENE
US$
KM
800
USA
Average Global Cash Cost Comparison (FOB US$/t) Major Exporting Countries
$0
Source: ERD research, Thompson-Reuters
$20
$40
$60
$80
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DONKIN
Marine Option: 3,000 tonne barges loading off the Donkin peninsula to vessels up to Cape Size
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ASH %
MOISTURE % SULPHUR % PHOSPHOROUS % MERCURY ppm CHLORINE %
Source: ERD research
3.5
1.9 2-3 0.13 0.15e 0.16e
8.4
13 0.7 0.02 0.04 0.03
7.0
1.0 1.6 0.52 0.07-0.15 na
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Million Tonnes
6000
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Source: BP Statistical review of world energy 2011 - http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_ publications /statistical_ energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/spreadsheets/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2011.xls. Retrieved 2011-06-10
Canada is moving towards the closure of coal-fired plants that have not installed Carbon Capture and Sequestration
What Canada will remove over the next 20 years (35M tonnes) will be replaced every 2 to 3 months globally
Clean coal technology & development has to play an important role in Canadas and the Worlds energy future
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80%
60% 40% 20% 0%
2008
2009
Nat Gas
2010
Renewables
2020
Demand Side Mgmt
2032
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Coal/Petcoke
Source: NS Department of Energy 2010), NSPI (2009)
=
$0.220
$0.25
Base Load
Renewable
C o s t
$0.20
$0.15
$ p U e S $0.10 r D ) k W h
Source: http://nuclearfissionary.com/2010/04/02/comparing-energy-costs-of-nuclear-coal-gas-wind-and-solar/
$0.05
$0.028
Electricity generation from power plants is low cost compared to many alternatives, even with added investment for emission control
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THE ECONOMY
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30-Yr Total
$848.5 $4,332
Provincial Taxes
Federal Taxes Total Taxes TOTAL
$1,245.7
$1,150.9 $2,396.6 $7,577.1
There are very few single prospects in Nova Scotia with the potential to provide economic impacts of this scale over a thirty year period
Gardner Pinfold Donkin Socio-Economic Impact Analyses (Oct 2011)
Sources: Marston 2011 Technical Report, and Gardner Pinfold Consultants Donkin Socio-Economic Impact Study October 2011
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30-Yr Total
11,458 12,828
Employment - Total
GDP (CAD$ million)
801 $66.4
24,286
$1,993
Cape Breton is expected to capture 63% of the employment (505 jobs) & annual GDP ($42M) from Donkin
Gardner Pinfold Donkin Socio-Economic Impact Analyses (Oct 2011)
Donkin to provide long term industrial development and high-tech skills training
Sources: Marston 2011 Technical Report, and Gardner Pinfold Consultants Donkin Socio-Economic Impact Study October 2011
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Annual Average Income to Government and NSPI Through use of Donkin Coal Over 30 Years
($CAD million)
Provincial
Federal
30 yr Total
Transportation
Assume $25/t less for Donkin vs. Imported SA (1 Mtpy)
$25
$42 $38.9 $2.7 $38.3 $109 MM $3.3 billion $38.3 MM $1.1 billion
Energy Savings
Donkin is ~30% higher BTU than Imported SA (1 Mtpy)
Provincial Taxes
Corporate, Excise, Payroll, etc
Provincial Royalty
$1.22/t
Federal Taxes
Corporate, Excise, Payroll, etc
THE ENVIRONMENT
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Total: $798M (30 years) for Lingan Emission Control Technology (including $81M NOx reduction) to reduce emissions to 2020 target levels funded by ~$1 Billion savings from lower transport costs and higher energy from using Donkin Coal over 15 years
Source: Nova Scotia Power
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International Energy Agency predicts a need for >3,000 CCS systems worldwide by 2050 if temperatures are not to rise by more than 2 degrees
The federal government is currently putting in place regulations which will limit the life of coal fired power plants to their commercial life which in Nova Scotias case means having to replace >40% of its power supply in < 20 years or employ carbon capture and sequestration
NSPIs 2009 IRP document estimates the cost of installing two CO2 capture units at Lingan to be $433M with a $11.9M/yr operating cost
Capable of reducing CO2 emissions by up to 90%
Total: $793M over 30 years for CCS Added to Lingan to reduce emissions to 2020 targeted levels potentially funded by ~$2 Billion in savings from using Donkin Coal over 30 years
Source: http://web.mit.edu/mitei/docs/reports/specker-retrofits.pdf / http://www.airwaterland.ca/article.asp?id=2476
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2.5% S Wet Scrubbers (SO2) Cost to retrofit Lingan to meet 2020 sulphur, NOx, and Mercury regulations Activated Carbon Capture (Hg) Baghouse with ACI (Hg) Selective Catalytic Reduction (NOx) TOTAL Cost to Meet Federal proposal CO2 Capture on CO2 emissions at Lingan
$433
$12
$360
$793
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THE FUTURE
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Donkin Peninsula and the Sydney Coal Basin Giant Resource and 300+ Year Mining History
The Southern Edge of the Giant 36,000 km2 Sydney Coal Basin Reported to Contain More Energy Than the Alberta Oil Sands
Source: The Sydney coalfield of Nova Scotia, Canada Original Research Article, International Journal of Coal Geology, Volume 23, Issues 1-4, September 1993, Pages 29-42, Peter A. Hacquebard
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Sydney Region
Related Future Development Potential
Coal Blending and Trans-shipment Facility
Tailoring export with Donkin coal for steel and thermal plants on Atlantic
Construction of Scrubber and Other Clean Coal Technological additions Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Developing a research and implementation project around CCS in Cape Breton is a long term project with significant spin-off potential (CBU) and $100s of million in construction projects
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THE CONCLUSIONS
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CONCLUSIONS
Nova Scotia will continue to secure >40% of its electricity from coal over the long term
Nova Scotia rate payers could spend $4 Billion over the next 20 years purchasing imported coal Nova Scotia hosts a world class coal deposit that could satisfy Nova Scotias energy needs Utilizing the Donkin resource can help fund Nova Scotias green energy future
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