Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

An assessment of renewable energy potential for electricity generation

in Pakistan
Muhammad Khalid Farooq n, S. Kumar
Energy Field of study, Asian Institute of Technology, PO Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Renewable energy for power generation is gaining attention around the world, and for Pakistan, these
Received 26 July 2012 resources can fulfill the present and future energy demands of the country. Though the potential of
Received in revised form renewable energy resources has been assessed in earlier studies, their assessment did not consider the
27 September 2012
most promising technologies. Moreover, their estimation was static and the future renewable resource
Accepted 30 September 2012
Available online 4 January 2013
potential was not estimated. This study estimates the current and future potential of renewable energy
sources for power generation by employing most promising technologies. The technical potential of
Keywords: solar energy from solar photovoltaic and parabolic trough thermal technologies for power generation is
Geographical potential estimated to be 149 GW in 2010 and 169 GW in 2050. The suitable area for wind energy generation is
Technical potential
available for the capacity installation of 13 GW. The potential from biomass energy sources is 5 GW in
Renewable energy sources
2010 and could be 15 GW in 2050. Small hydro installed capacity under current circumstances can
Pakistan
Electricity reach 3 GW installed capacity. The current national plans are resulting in exploitation of wind and
small hydro plants, but a large technical potential of solar and biomass technologies also exists. The
study results clearly demonstrate that renewable energy sources can supplement the energy needs of
Pakistan and can provide a sustainable energy base.
& 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
2. Renewable energy resource potential definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
3. Methodology and assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
4. Estimation of the renewable energy sources potential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.1. Solar energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.1.1. Resource description and availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.1.2. Overview of technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.1.3. Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.1.4. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.2. Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
4.2.1. Resource description and availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
4.2.2. Overview of technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
4.2.3. Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
4.2.4. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
4.3. Wind energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
4.3.1. Resource description and availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
4.3.2. Overview of technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
4.3.3. Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
4.3.4. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
4.4. Small hydro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
4.4.1. Resource description and availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
4.4.2. Overview of technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

n
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ66 825 798454.
E-mail address: kfarooq1966@gmail.com (M.K. Farooq).

1364-0321/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.09.042
 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254 241

4.4.3. Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

4.4.4. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
5. Results and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
Appendix-A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252

1. Introduction
commercially available renewable energy technologies for elec-
The electricity sector of Pakistan consumed 15 million tons of tricity generation. This study assesses the existing and future
oil equivalent in 2008 that amounted to 28% of fossil fuels potential of major renewable energy sources, namely, solar, wind,
supplied to the country. Due to limited domestic oil reserves small hydro and biomass in Pakistan, by considering the most
and to fulfill its energy requirement, 71% of the country’s oil promising energy technologies. More specifically, the study
needs were imported in 2008 [1]. The increased use of oil in endeavors to find how much renewable energy resource is
power generation sector not only increased the financial burden available for power generation in Pakistan? And how much
on the economy, but also increased CO2 emission from power electricity can be generated using currently available renewable
generation sector. Moreover, high oil prices curtailed the quantity energy technologies?
of oil purchased, and therefore electricity could not be supplied as The organization of the paper is as follows: Section 2 provides
per demand of the economy, which led to demand-supply gap of a brief description of the types of potentials. Sections 3 presents
electricity. Thus, total supply of electricity changed from surplus the assumptions and the methodology adopted for the estima-
of 1230 MW at the end of financial year 2005 to a deficit of tion of resource potential, respectively. Section 4 is devoted
5885 MW at the end of financial year 2010 [2]. Inability of to the estimation of different potentials under geographical
electricity supply to match increasing demand is mainly attrib- and technological constraints for the various renewable
uted to lower utilization of existing installed generation capacity energy resources. Section 5 discusses the technical potential of
which is mainly due to increasing oil prices in international selected renewable energy sources, the renewable energy pro-
markets [2]. The average annual growth in electricity demand motion plan and its (practical) implementation. Section 6 con-
during 2005–2010 was 8%, and is expected to continue till cludes the study.
2035 [3]. If the growth continues at the same pace, the total
demand will be 474 GW in 2050. The power generation plan till
2030 indicates that electricity supply will be growing at an 2. Renewable energy resource potential definitions
average annual growth rate of 11% till 2030, and 65% of increase
in installed generation capacity will be thermal based electricity The potential of renewable energy (RE) is the energy which can
generation [4]. Increasing fossil based generation under such be provided by the specific source annually. However, this
circumstances will not only increase emissions but could also potential depends upon geographical, technical and economic
increase electricity prices due to the increasing prices of fossil limitations [12]. RE potential has been defined in many ways
fuels, and could make the power sector vulnerable to interna- (Table 1). Boyle [12] has suggested four potentials, namely, total,
tional fossil fuels price fluctuations. The share of renewable technical, practical and economic potential. Vries et al. [13] used
energy in power sector in Pakistan was less than 1% till geographical, technical and economic potential to explain the
2010 [5]. It is, therefore, imperative that Pakistan exploits concept of potential. These definitions are based on World Energy
domestically available alternative energy sources for power gen- Council Report 1994 and Hoogwijk [36]. Painuly [14] differen-
eration. However, in order to tap renewable energy resources in tiated the techno-economic potential and economic potential on
Pakistan, details on the potential of these energy sources con- the basis of market distortions. Brief definitions of these different
sidering commercially available and most promising technologies potentials are as follows:
need to be evaluated and quantified.
The renewable energy resource potential of Pakistan has been  Theoretical potential1 : The highest level of (resource) poten-
assessed by a number of researchers [6–11]. However, their tial is the theoretical potential. This potential only takes into
estimations were limited to theoretical potential of energy account restrictions with respect to natural and climatic
extraction from the renewable sources and their possible utiliza- parameters.
tion for different energy applications like cooking, heating, drying,  Geographical potential: The geographical potential is the
etc. These studies also focused more on solar energy potential and theoretical potential limited by the resources at geographical
not much on other renewable resources. Very few studies esti- locations that are suitable for installation of specific
mated the technical potential of electricity generation from solar technology.
and wind energy. Sheikh, [9], for example, estimated the technical  Technical potential: This is the geographical potential which
potential of solar PV generation capacity for 100 square kilo- can be attained using technically feasible technologies while
meters which is 0.01% of total land area of the country. Gondal accounting for conversion efficiencies.
and Sahir [11] assumed 0.45% of urban areas for PV installations  Techno-economic potential: This is the potential which can be
to estimate the installed capacity of electricity generation through availed by applying technically feasible and economic viable
solar PV. However, these studies did not describe the technology technologies which are being universally used in competitive
considered and did not provide the details on the estimation of markets.
suitable area for the deployment of the technology. Moreover,  Economic potential: The economic potential is the technical
future geographical and technical potential was also not esti- potential at cost levels considered competitive.
mated. This study aims to fill the gap of renewable energy
resource availability of Pakistan by estimating the current and 1
Total potential and theoretical potential are two names of the same concept,
future geographical and technical potential of mature, and it is total availability of the energy from specific RE source [13].
242 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254

 Market potential: The market potential is the total amount of The mathematical representation for the estimation of renew-
renewable energy that can be implemented in the market able energy resource potential is as follows:
taking into account the demand for energy, competing tech-
nologies, the costs and subsidies of renewable energy sources, Gp ¼ Ep  Ra ð1Þ
and barriers.
where, Gp is geographical potential (GW h); Ep is energy potential of
renewable energy resource (GW h/unit of energy source (km2 or ton))
This study follows the definitions given by Vries et al. [13] and and Ra is resource availability (million tons, km2). Non combustible
distinguishes the potential as geographical, technical and economic energy resources (solar, wind and hydro) are site specific and tapping
potential. The paper presents the availability of renewable energy energy from these sources is possible only in certain areas and
potential which can be tapped through commercially mature tech- depending on the technology deployed. Therefore, resource avail-
nologies, and is limited to estimation of technical potential. ability for these is the availability of suitable area (km2). Geographical
potential of combustible resources (biomass) is estimated on the
basis of residue availability (million tons).
The technical potential is estimated by applying the capacity
3. Methodology and assumptions
factor and the electrical conversion efficiency of renewable
energy technology, as:
Renewable energy sources for electricity generation can broadly
be categorized as combustible and non-combustibles. Electricity Tp ¼ Gp  Cf  Ef f ð2Þ
generation from combustible renewables (e.g., biomass) depend upon
the availability and the quality of resource for combustion, whereas where, Tp is technical potential (GW, GW h); Cf is the capacity factor
noncombustible renewables (e.g., Solar and wind) are more site of technology (fraction); and Eff is efficiency of the technology (%).
specific, and depends on climatic conditions. Availability factor refers to number of days/hours per year the
The methodology to estimate the potential of each renewable technology can be used for electricity generation. The value is lowest
energy source is thus different due to varied nature of the source, and for solar technologies (0.33) due to their dependency on sunshine.
due to the geographic and technological limitations of each source. Though, the assumptions and methodologies for the assess-
However, the general methodology used for the assessment of the ment of each renewable resource potential differ (and are
different renewable energy resources potential is shown in Fig. 1. elaborated in relevant sections), the general assumptions consid-
ered for the potential estimation in this study are listed below:

 Though renewable energy carriers are used for heating, cook-

Table 1
ing, cooling, drying and electricity generation, the present
Types of potential defined by existing studies. study considers the renewable resource use only for grid
connected electricity generation.
Potential Boyle Vries et al. Painuly Hoogwijk and Resch et al.  Centralized (CNT) and decentralized (DCNT) systems are
types [12] [13] [14] Graus [15] [16]
considered for solar PV technology, while for other technolo-
Total O gies only centralized electricity systems are considered.
Theoretical O O  Off shore technologies are not considered due to data limita-
Geographical O O tions regarding their potential.
Technical O O O O O
 Area under forests, restricted areas and water bodies are
Techno- O
economic excluded in the assessment of resource potential.
Practical O
Realisable O
Economic O O O O
The specific methodology for each renewable resource is
Market O O
described in the following section.

RESOURCES AVAILABILITY

SOLAR
Average irradiation (MWh/km2.year)
Available area for technology deployment (km2)
Capacity
Suitability factor
WIND factor
Available area for technology deployment (km2)
Power density (MW/km2)
Geographical Technical
SMALL HYDRO potential potential
Identified Power potential (MW)

BIOMASS Efficiency
Production of crops (Million tons) Other uses
Residue to production ratio (%)
Energy potential (PJ/million tons)

Fig. 1. Flow chart representation for the estimation of potential estimation of renewable energy sources potential.
 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254 243

4. Estimation of the renewable energy sources potential Table 2

Status of CSP projects in the world market till 2011 (capacity in MW) [35].
4.1. Solar energy
Technology Operational Under construction Planning phase Total

4.1.1. Resource description and availability Parabolic trough 1211 1210 2780 5201
Solar energy is the energy that is available in the sun light or in Power tower 36 387 1505 1928
the heat generated by sunlight [17]. Sun light reaches the earth’s Dish engine 2 0 750 752
Linear fresnel 6 30 0 36
surface in the form of solar radiation and the average intensity of Total 1255 1627 5035 7917
solar radiation outside the atmosphere is 1367 W/m2. Due to
atmospheric attenuation, the intensity reduces and the resulting
peak intensity at sea level is around 1 kW/m2. The amount of The Parabolic Trough systems are the most popular CSP
irradiation varies regionally with the changing seasons, and technologies. These are commercially mature and cost effective
hourly due to daily variation in sun’s elevation [18]. among all CSP technologies and have attracted considerable
Pakistan is situated between latitudes 241 and 371 North, and interest from energy utilities in Europe and USA [30,32,34]. The
longitudes 621 and 751 East with an area of 796,096 km2. The share of parabolic trough technology in operation is 97%, whereas
solar radiation incident is in the range of 5–7 kW h/m2/day over under construction and planned capacities, its share is 74% and
95% of the total area with persistence factor of over 85% [7,19,20]. 56%, respectively [35]. Table 2 gives the global status of CSP
The mean global irradiation on a horizontal surface in Pakistan is power plants.
about 200–250 W/m2 with 8 to 10 sunshine hours per day [7].
4.1.3. Assumptions
The (specific) assumptions used to estimate the electricity
4.1.2. Overview of technologies
generation potential using solar PV in Pakistan are:
Solar PV and solar thermal are the two common generic
technologies used for electricity generation [21]. The present
study considers these two technologies for the estimation of the
 For DCNT (roof top solar PV) applications, 0.1% of urban
rooftop area is available [36]. We assume 50% of this area for
potential of solar based electricity generation in Pakistan.
solar PV panels, and the remaining area can be used for solar
water heaters [37,38].
4.1.2.1. Solar PV. Solar PV is a most promising and well established  The future geographical potential of roof top solar PV applica-
technology to convert sunlight to electricity [18,22–26]. PV cells are tions is estimated on the basis of growth in urban area, which
usually linked in series/parallel combinations within weather proof is assumed to be the same as the growth in urban population.
modules to form larger power arrays [24,25]. PV technologies can The average annual growth rate of urban population is 2.9%
be installed for single user (off grid) or for multiple users (grid during 2010–2050 [39]. In case of CNT applications, the
connected). suitable area is kept constant for the study period, due to land
Commercial PV technologies can be divided into three cate- use competitions.
gories i.e., first generation (Crystalline silicon (c-Si)), second  For PV based (CNT and DCNT) applications, crystalline silicon
generation (Thin Film (Cd–Te)) and third generation (Concentra- technology is selected due to its higher efficiency and lower
tor Photovoltaic (CPV)) technologies. Thin film technologies are space requirement for grid connected applications [26,40].
the cheapest, but have low efficiency, whereas CPV technologies  The area required to install 1 kW module is assumed to be
are most efficient but are very costly, and are not yet commer- 7 m2 [26].
cially mature [26]. Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) technologies systems  The efficiency of commercially available crystalline silicon
are predominantly used all over the world due to mid range costs, modules increased from few percent in 1970s to 19% in 2010
reasonable efficiencies and lower space requirements [26–28]. [26,40], while the average efficiency of module is 15% [40,41].
The overall share of c-Si in 2009 was estimated to be in the range In this study, we assume efficiency of PV systems (net of
of 85–90% of the global annual PV market [25]. losses) as 14% for both CNT and DCNT applications ([9].
 The long term solar to electric efficiency of solar PV based
applications is assumed to be 25% in 2050 [26].
4.1.2.2. Solar thermal. Solar Thermal or Concentrating Solar Power
(CSP) Systems are also used for electricity generation in addition For solar thermal based electricity generation, the assumptions
to Solar PV systems. In CSP systems, concentrated solar radiation used are:
is converted to thermal energy first before it is converted to
electrical energy. A CSP plant is comprised of solar collectors,  Only parabolic trough technology has been considered.
receivers, and a power block. The solar collectors concentrate sun  The area required for parabolic trough power plant is approxi-
light to raise the temperature of transfer fluid in the receiver. The mately 25 m2/kW [42].
heated fluid produces steam which is then used to generate  The efficiency of existing parabolic trough plants ranges from
electricity through a conventional turbine generation system 14% to 20% [31,35,42]. We assume the solar to electricity
[29,30]. These systems can be categorized as point focus efficiency (net of losses) as 14%. The long term solar to
concentrators and line focus concentrators. Point focusing electrical efficiency for solar thermal CNT system is assumed
systems have two types of power plants—solar tower and solar to be 25% [43].
dish systems. Line focusing systems include parabolic trough and
linear Fresnel plants [30–32]. CSP plants can be equipped with
heat storage system to generate electricity even in cloudy sky or
at night time [33]. Table A-1 (Appendix-A) presents the 4.1.4. Methodology
comparison of main types of CSP technologies in terms of their
technical characteristics. These technologies significantly differ 4.1.4.1. The geographical potential. The geographical potential of
from one another not only on technical features, but also in solar energy is the yearly irradiance integrated over geographically
relation to reliability, maturity and operational experience [33]. constrained area suitable for the considered PV system based
244 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254

installations. It is estimated using the following equation: estimated using the following equation [36]:

GPsit ¼ 365  I  Rait ð3Þ TPspvit ¼ GPspvit  nt ð4Þ

where, GPsit is geographical potential (TW h) of ith technology (CNT TPstt ¼ GPstt  nt ð5Þ
and DCNT solar PV and CNT solar thermal) in year t; I is the average
where, TPspvit is technical potential of ith solar PV technology in
solar irradiation (kW h/m2/day); 365 are number of days in a year
year t; GPspvit is geographical potential of ith solar PV technology
and Rait is the resource availability in terms of total suitable area for
in year t; Zt is conversion efficiency of the technology in year t,
ith technology in year t, and t is from 2007 to 2050.
and Prt is performance ratio in year t. Similarly, TPstt is technical
The suitable area, average daily solar irradiation, and geogra-
potential of solar thermal technology; GPstt is geographical
phical potential of electricity generation from solar based systems
potential of solar thermal and Zt is conversion efficiency of the
is given in Table 3.
technology.
The future geographical potential is based on availability of the
The technical potential thus estimated for 2010 are 19 TW h,
areas for the deployment of different renewable energy technol-
220 TW h and 119 TW h for solar PV DCNT, CNT and solar thermal
ogies. The suitable area for DCNT solar PV system will increase
CNT, respectively. The total technical potential from solar based
with urban growth, whereas for CNT solar PV and solar thermal
electricity generation systems is thus 358 TW h.
systems, the area is assumed to be the same. Therefore, their
The future technical potential depends upon the improve-
geographical potential will also remain the same. The current and
ments in conversion efficiency of solar energy into electricity.
future geographical potential is given in Table 4.
Innovation and research & development activities in solar tech-
The estimations presented in Table 4 shows that utilization of
nologies are not only reducing the unit cost but also increasing
less than 1% of total area of the country is sufficient to produce
the efficiency of these systems [26]. Increase in efficiencies is
more than 2500 TW h of electricity. In 2010, geographical poten-
therefore considered in the estimation of future technical poten-
tial of solar electricity was 2559 TW h, which is 33 times more
tial. Based on the assumptions noted above, the long term
than total electricity consumption (77 TW h) during the same
technical potential (up to 2050) has been estimated and is given
year [45]. However, all geographical potential cannot be tapped
in Table 5.
due to technological constraints. Therefore, estimation of techni-
The results indicate that Pakistan has significant potential of
cal potential can provide useful estimates of electricity generation
solar energy, which can be exploited to fulfill the increasing
from the available geographical potential.
electricity demand. However, solar energy is not used to produce
grid connected electricity so far in Pakistan. Only in 2011, utility
scale ground mounted solar PV plant with 1 MW installed
4.1.4.2. Technical potential. The technical potential of the annual
capacity has been initiated which will start operation in 2014
electricity generation from solar based generation has been
[46]. Considering the continuous electricity deficit, there should
be more initiatives to increase solar energy utilization for electric
Table 3
Geographical potential of solar based electricity generation during 2007. power generation in the future.

Technology Type Asit [44] I [7] Gpsi

4.2. Biomass
Sq. km kW h/day TW h/year
Solar PV Decentralized 62 5.3 121 4.2.1. Resource description and availability
Solar PV Centralized 813 1573 Biomass comprises all kind of organic matters produced as a
Solar thermal Centralized 565 852 result of photosynthesis reaction. It can be grouped into four
Total 2546
catagories [47], namely:

 wood and forest residues;

 agricultural residues (from crops, food processing and
animals);
Table 4  dedicated energy crops; and
Geographical potential of solar energy based electricity generation (2007–2050).  municipal solid waste (MSW).
Technology Geographical solar potential (TW h)
Wood and forest residues are produced from farmlands and
2007 2010 2030 2050 forest areas. Agriculture residues are comprised of residues of
crops and animal waste. Crop residues can further be subcategor-
Solar PV (DCNT) 121 134 258 406 ized into field residues and process residues [48]. Field residues
Solar PV (CNT) 1573 1573 1573 1573
Solar thermal (CNT) 852 852 852 852
are the left over part of crop in the fields. These are commonly
Total 2546 2559 2684 2831 used for cooking and heating. Process residues are obtained after
processing the crops. Common examples of process residues are

Table 5
Technical potential of solar based electricity generation during 2010–2050.

Technology Type of technology Technical potential (GW) Technical potential (TW h)

2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050

Solar PV Decentralized (DCNT) 10 19 30 19 65 101

Centralized (CNT) 116 116 116 220 393 393
Solar thermal Centralized (CNT) 23 23 23 119 213 213
Total 149 158 169 358 671 708
 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254 245

bagasse molasses and rice husk. Bagasse is left over part of sugar two components; feedstock conversion system and power gen-
cane processing, whereas molasses is the by-product of sugar eration technology. In direct combustion power generation tech-
cane and sugar beet, which is obtained during juice purification. nology, boilers are used for conversion of feed stock into steam.
Rice husk is the left over of rice milling and is normally used for The generated steam is then used to produce electricity through a
heating, animal feed and poultry bedding. Animal waste is the steam turbine. In gasification based power plants, gasifiers are
waste produced by different animals, whereas MSW is the waste used to convert feedstock into gas which is then used to drive a
produced by households and commercial establishments in the gas turbine to generate electricity. Table A-2 (Appendix-A) lists
cities/municipalities. the available technologies which are operational or in demonstra-
Pakistan, being an agriculture country, is rich in biomass tion stage. Among these technologies, steam turbine and gas
energy sources. The main sources of biomass energy in Pakistan turbine technologies are comparatively economical and are in
are crop residues and waste (animal waste and MSW). Crop common use. Gasification based technology has so far been
residues (both field and process residues) constitute a significant applied on a limited scale (installed capacity is 1.4 GWe out of
part of biomass energy in the country. Residue production from 40 GWe biomass based global installed capacity). It is used for
major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize and gram) in combined heat and power mostly in Europe [64]. On the other
2000 was 62 million tons and is increasing at an annual average hand, direct combustion based technologies (steam turbine)
growth rate of 2%. However, this is normally used for animal provides about 90% of the energy produced at global level [65].
fodder, cooking and heating. Animal waste is the second largest
biomass energy source. There were approximately 62 million
animals in 2005, growing at an average rate of 8% [49]. The 4.2.3. Assumptions
average dropping of medium size animal is estimated to be For the purpose of estimation of electricity generation, bio-
10 kg [9]. This results in the production of 62 million kg of dung mass residues have been classified into three categories i.e., crop
per day. This dung is either disposed off in the fields or used for residues, animal waste and MSW.
cooking and heating in the residential sector. MSW is the third The assumptions used for crop residue based electricity gen-
major potential source of biomass energy in Pakistan. The average eration are:
per capita waste generation in Pakistan is 0.5 kg/day and is
increasing with expansion in urban population and income levels  Only four major crops (rice, cotton, maize and gram) are
[50]. In 2005, the total MSW generated in urban areas of Pakistan considered for the estimation. Wheat and sugar cane are not
was 9.8 million tons, of which 5.3 million tons was collected at an considered in the estimation due to the non availability of
average collection rate of 57% [51]. Of the collected waste, almost their residue for centralized grid connected electricity genera-
55% is organic waste, which can be used for energy generation. tion. Wheat residue is normally used for fodder and non
Utilization of these energy sources for electricity generation can energy purposes [66,67] and sugar cane residue (bagasse) is
help Pakistan to address its electricity crisis. used by sugar mills for self use electricity generation and
(molasses) for production of alcohol or as fuel for transport
sector [68,69].
4.2.2. Overview of technologies  Only field residues are considered for the estimation of crop
Conversion of biomass into useful energy depends on a residue based electricity generation.
number of factors, namely, type and quantity of biomass feed-  The production of field residue is based on residue to produc-
stock, desired form of energy, environmental standards, economic tion (R/P) ratio and heat value of residue which is different for
conditions and project specific factors. Under these conditions, each crop.
conversion of biomass into energy is undertaken by two main  The collection efficiency of field residues is assumed to be 35%
process technologies—thermo chemical and bio chemical conver- of total residue production [52,66].
sion. Under thermo chemical conversion, four processes are  Field residue is currently being used mainly for fulfilling the
available: combustion, pyrolysis, gasification and liquefaction. energy requirements (cooking and heating) of the residential
Combustion and gasification processes are used for electricity sector. However, due to availability of commercial energy
generation [52–56]. Under bio chemical process, two processes sources (LPG and natural gas), use of field residue for cooking
are used for energy generation: Fermentation and Anaerobic and heating is continuously decreasing [70]. The percentage of
digestion. Anaerobic digestion is also used for electricity urban and rural households consuming field residues declined
generation from 7.6% and 37% in 1998 to 0.4% and 6%, respectively in
Under direct combustion, biomass is oxidized with excess air to 2006. For this analysis, it is assumed that 6% of rural house-
produce hot flue gases at the temperature of around 800–1000 1C holds will continue using field residue for domestic use, and
which is used to produce steam. The steam so obtained is used to the remaining amount will be available for electricity
generate electricity in a condensing steam cycle. Direct combustion generation.
is the most popular process of converting biomass into heat and  For the estimation of future potential of field residues, the
power [57,58]. average yield and area under crops in case of rice, maize and
In the gasification process, biomass is converted into combus- cotton for the period 2009–2025 has been projected based on
tible gas by partially oxidizing it at high temperature ranging available data [71]. For the remaining period, these values
from 800 to 900 1C. The produced gas is used to generate have been projected on the basis of 15 years (2010–2025)
electricity in a gas turbine or diesel generator [59–61]. average annual growth rates of yield and area under crops of
Anaerobic digestion is used to convert organic material into these respective crops. In case of gram, the area and yield has
biogas from high moisture content organic wastes like manure been projected on the basis of average annual growth rates of
(animal and human) and crop residues. The average retention the 10 years (1998–2007). The projected area for the different
time for animal waste is 20–40 days and for organic waste it is crops and the average yield for the period (2005–2050) is
60–90 days [62]. The resultant biogas contains 55 to 80% methane given in Table 6.
- depending upon waste type [63].
Electricity generation from biomass depends upon the conver- The world average yield in 2050 for cotton, rice and maize are
sion technology used. The conversion technology is comprised of 2.80, 5.23 and 6.06 t/ha, respectively [72]. The projected average
246 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254

Table 6 Table 7
Projected area and yield of major crops of Pakistan and comparison of yield Resource availability of agricultural field residues in Pakistan in 2005 [66,67,73].
[71–73].
Crops Production R/P ratio Total Residue Energy Potential
Crops 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 (million (fraction) residue collected content (PJ)
tons) @35% (PJ/million
Cotton Area (million ha) 3103 3292 3661 4070 4525 (million tons)
Rice 2621 2803 2717 2634 2553 tons)
Maize 1042 1141 1215 1294 1378
Gram 129 1141 1167 1194 1222 Cotton 2.21 2.76 6.10 2.14 14.65 31.28
Total 7795 8377 8760 9192 9679 Rice 5.56 1.76 9.76 3.42 13.80 47.15
Maize 3.11 2.00 6.22 2.18 17.20 37.44
Cotton Yield (t/ha) 0.71 0.81 0.94 1.09 1.26
Gram 0.48 1.60 0.77 0.27 15.91 4.27
Rice 2.12 2.52 2.72 2.94 3.19
Total 22.85 8.00 120.15
Maize 2.98 3.79 4.10 4.43 4.79
Gram 0.47 0.61 0.80 1.04 1.36

yield in Pakistan in 2050 is still lower than the maximum average Table 8
yield at world level. It is even lower than current average yield of Resource availability of animal waste in Pakistan in 2005 [9,73,80].
US. For example, the average yield per hectare of rice is expected
No. of R/P ratio Total Residue Energy Potential
to be 5.23 t which is lower than average yield of US in 2008 (5.41)
animals (kg/animal/day) residue collected content (PJ)
[73]. (millions) (million @25% (PJ/million
tons) (million tons)
 The R/P ratio, heating value and collection efficiency are tons)
assumed to be same throughout the planning period (2005–
56.90 10.00 207.68 51.92 15.00 78.82
2050).
 The technology considered for electricity generation from field
residue is steam turbine based direct combustion. The capacity AVA elasticity. The agriculture value added (AVA) elasticity e is
factor and efficiency of the technology are assumed to be 65% estimated by log linear regression between historical data of AVA
[74] and 30% [75], respectively and number of animals for 27 years (1980–2007). The functional
 Improvements in efficiency of technology is also considered form of the model is given below:
and long term efficiency is assumed to be 33% in 2050 [75].
LnðAnt Þ ¼ b0 þ b1 LnðAVAÞ ð7Þ

The estimation of animal waste potential for electricity gen- where, Ln (Ant) is the total number of animals (cattle and buffalo)
eration is based on the following assumptions: and (AVA) is agriculture value added. b1 is AVA elasticity (e).
The value of e is 0.7.
 Only the manure from cattle and buffalo is considered. Manure
from sheep and goat has not been considered due to their  The collection efficiency, per animal dropping and percentage of
almost zero collection efficiency [66]. household using animal waste is assumed to be same till 2050.
 Daily dropping of an animal is assumed to be 10 kg/day or  Animal waste is processed to generate methane which is used for
3.65 t/year ([9]), and its energy content is 15 MJ/t of waste. electricity generation. Methane generation per ton of waste is
 The collection efficiency of waste varies due to seasonal assumed to 50 m3 [9] with an energy content of 35 MJ/m3 [81].
differences [76] and varies widely across countries. The collec-  The technology considered for electricity generation from
tion efficiency of animal waste in China and India is around animal waste is combustion/gas turbine, which is based on
60% [66,77,78], whereas in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the methane generated through anaerobic process. The capa-
it is about 50% [9,52,79]. However, studies on global biomass city factor and efficiency of the technology are assumed to 65%
potential estimation indicates 25% collection efficiency for [74] and 36% [75], respectively.
developing countries [80]. This is used in the present study.  Improvement in efficiency of technology is also considered,
 The dropping per animal, energy content of the waste and and it is expected that electrical efficiency will increase from
collection efficiency is assumed to be constant during the 36% in 2010 to 40% in 2050 [75].
planning period.
 The animal waste is currently being used mainly for domestic The municipal solid waste (MSW) potential for electricity
cooking and heating. However, its use in domestic sector is generation in Pakistan is estimated using the following
declining. Percentage of urban and rural households consum- assumptions:
ing animal waste declined from 9% and 40% in 1998 to 2% and
13%, respectively, in 2006 [70]. For this analysis, it is assumed  MSW generated in 10 largest cities of Pakistan is considered
that 13% of rural and 2% of urban households will consume for the assessment.
animal waste locally and the remaining waste will be available  Waste generated in each city is estimated on the basis of
for electricity generation. population, per capita waste generation and collection rate for
 The future availability of waste depends upon possible each city. The total waste is aggregation of waste from cities.
increase in number of animals. The number of animals till  Waste generation per capita per day in Pakistan ranges from
2050 has been projected using the following equation: 0.38 kg to 0.61 kg [82–84]. Collection rate of waste in urban

e areas varies from 51% to 61% [51]. The collection rate for each
Ant ¼ An0  AVAt =AV A0 ð6Þ city has been used to estimate waste generation from that city.
 Only, organic fraction of MSW (OFMSW) is assumed to be
where, Ant is total number of animals in year t; An0 is total available for electricity generation. This varies from 40% in
number of animals in 2005; AVAt corresponds to agriculture value Gujranwala to 96% in Islamabad. The average organic waste is
added in year t; AVA0 is agriculture value added in 2005 and e is assumed to be 56% (Table A-3 (Appendix-A)).
 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254 247

Table 9
Details of MSW generation in major cities of Pakistan in 2005 [39,50,82,83,86].

City Population R/P ratio Collection Residue collected Organic Energy potential
(millions) (kg/capita/day) efficiency (%) (000 t) waste (000 t) (million m3)

Faisalabad 2.5 0.39 65 296 136 14

Gujranwala 1.44 0.47 52 128 51 5
Hyderabad 1.39 0.56 72 374 206 21
Islamabad 0.74 0.53 91 225 216 22
Karachi 11.62 0.61 53 1378 716 72
Lahore 6.29 0.61 68 953 639 64
Multan 1.45 0.45 60 325 211 21
Peshawar 1.24 0.49 67 149 67 7
Quetta 0.73 0.38 75 100 37 4
Rawalpindi 1.77 0.58 86 320 144 14
Total 29.18 4247 2423 242

Table 10 where, Rait is resource availability (total residue, waste) in PJ from

Geographical potential (net) of biomass energy sources in Pakistan in 2005 (TW h). ith generation source (crops, animal, urban population) in year t;
Yit is the amount of source (crop yield, number of animals, urban
Field residue Animal waste MSW Total
population) in year t; RPi is residue production per unit of ith
Total geographical potential 33 216 6 255 source, and CEff is collection efficiency.
Used for other purpose 4 28 0 32 The geographical potential of each biomass source (for 2005) is
Available for electricity generation 29 188 6 223 estimated by using the following equation:


GPbit ¼ S Rait  Epi ð9Þ
Table 11
where, GPbit is geographical potential of ith biomass energy
The geographical potential (net) of biomass energy during 2010–2050 (TW h).
source in year t; Rait is the resource availability from ith source
Residue type 2010 2030 2050 in year t, and Epi is energy potential of residue from ith source. i
refers to major crops, number of animals and urban population.
Field residue 33 44 64 Geographical potential of field residues, animal waste and MSW
Animal waste 219 355 505
MSW 8 25 69
for 2005 estimated using Eq. (9) was 120, 779 and 21 PJ (33, 216
Total 260 424 638 and 6 TW h), respectively. However, this potential is further
restricted by uses of the residue for other energy applications [88].
Therefore, the (net) geographical potential of biomass for electricity
 Future availability of MSW depends on growth in urban generation is total geographical potential net of other uses, and is
population and per capita waste generation. The future urban
given in Table 10:
population till 2025 is based on world urbanization prospects
The future geographical potential is estimated on the basis of
[39]. From 2025 to 2050, the urban population is projected on
increase in the amount of residue source and growth in residue
the basis of average growth rate of population. The average
generation rate. In case of field residue and animal waste, the rate
growth rate of population is estimated by the extrapolation of
of residue generation per unit is the same, whereas in the case of
growth rates of 1990–2025 for each city.
MSW, the average annual growth in residue production is 3.4%.
 Future growth in per capita waste generation is assumed to be
Table 11 depicts the future geographical potential of biomass
3.4% annually [85], whereas collection efficiency from different
energy sources for electricity generation:
cities and OFMSW are assumed to be the same till 2050.
The biomass geographical potential given in Table 11 is the
 OFMSW is converted into methane through anaerobic diges-
minimum amount of biomass energy which is available for
tion. The production of methane is assumed to be 100 m3/t of
electricity generation. This potential in 2010 is 3 times greater
organic waste [86,87] with energy contents of 35 MJ/m3 [81].
than total electricity consumption in Pakistan in 2010. Improve-
 Technology considered for electricity generation is gas turbine
ment in collection efficiency of these residues can further increase
based power plant. Capacity factor and efficiency of the technol-
the potential of biomass for electricity generation. However
ogy are assumed to be 65% [74] and 36% [75], respectively.
technology availability and efficiency limits the actual amount
 Due to efficiency improvements, it is assumed that the
of electricity which can be generated from biomass.
efficiency of technology will increase from current 36% to
4.2.4.1.1. Technical potential. The technical potential of electri-
40% in 2050 [75].
city generation from field residues is based on the geographical
potential, efficiency and availability of the selected technology. In
case of wastes (animal waste and MSW), methane is generated
4.2.4. Methodology from residue which is used for electricity generation. Therefore,
the technical potential of field residues and waste (animal waste
4.2.4.1. The geographical potential. The geographical potential of and MSW) are estimated separately. For this purpose, Eqs. (10)
biomass (field residues, animal waste and MSW) is the amount of and (11) are used, which are:
residue that is generated during a year. The residue (resource) TPbwit ¼ GPbwit  M i  Cf  Zt ð10Þ
availability depends upon the amount of residue base (total
production of different crops/number of animal/urban TPbf it ¼ GPbf it  Cf  Zt ð11Þ
population), residue per unit and collection efficiency of residue
(Tables 7–9). where, TPbwit is technical potential of biomass waste residue i
(animal waste and MSW) in year t; GPbwit is geographical
Rait ¼ Y it  RP i  C Ef f ð8Þ potential of biomass waste residue i in year t; Mi is methane
248 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254

Table 12 wind turbines are more commonly used for electricity generation
Technical potential of biomass energy sources during 2010–2050. and will continue holding the market in near future [90]. Major
components of wind turbine are rotor (blades with hub), gearbox,
Technology Technical potential (MW) Technical potential (GW h)
generators and tower. The blades of turbine rotate due to wind,
2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 which turns the gears in a generator behind the blades and inside
the turbine. The generator then converts the kinetic energy of the
Field residue 1744 2492 3688 9928 14,187 21,002 rotating blades into electrical energy, which is then carried by
Animal waste 1614 2837 4140 9190 16,153 23,574
MSW 199 672 1933 1134 3826 11,004
cables to an electrical grid [94]. The crucial factor in wind turbine
Total 3557 6000 9761 20,251 34,166 55,581 is the rotor diameter and size of the blade. Blades with larger size
can cover more swept area, and therefore capture more energy
from the wind [95].
generation rate (m3/t) from residue i; Cf is capacity factor of The wind turbine technology has demonstrated significant
technology (fraction); Zt is conversion efficiency of technology in development during the last two dacades. Better exploitation of
year t. Similarly, TPbfit is technical potential of biomass field land, scale of economies, reduced investmnet costs requirements
residue i in year t; GPbfit is geographical potential of ith biomass and past development funding programs pushed the industry
field residue in year t; Cf and Zt are capacity factor and conversion towards development of large scale machines. Resultanatly, size
efficiency of technology, respectively in year t. Table 12 presents of wind turbine increased from 100 kW in 1980s to 7.5 MW in
details of technical potential of biomass in Pakistan to 2050. 2010 (with rotor diameter of 127 m). However, after 2005, the
In Pakistan, there was no commercial grid connected biomass growth in turbine size slowed down and there was more focus to
based power plant till 2011. However, recently some private firms increase the volume supply in 1.5 to 3 MW range due to rapid
have shown their interest in electricity generation from crop upsurge in demand at global level. Therefore, turbines in the
residue. SJD and Lumis power having installed capacity of 12 MW capacity range of 1.5 to 3 MW were mainly used till 2011 [96,97].
each, started construction of power plants which will be produ-
cing electricity till 2015 [46]. Besides, the government is also 4.3.3. Assumptions
planning to purchase surplus electricity from sugar mills The assumptions used to estimate the geographical and
to address the electricity crises. In case of animal waste, a waste technical potential of wind energy in Pakistan are:
– to – energy project has been initiated in Karachi with installed
capacity of 22 MW [89]. However in case of MSW, there is still no  Wind mills used for the purposes other than electricity gen-
official plan to generate centralized grid connected electricity. eration are not considered.
 The suitable area for wind based power generation is assumed
4.3. Wind energy to be 2481 km2 [93].
 The reference wind turbine used for technical potential esti-
4.3.1. Resource description and availability mation has capacity of 1.5 MW manufactured by General
Wind orignates due to the difference of temperature on the Electric, China. This turbine is predominantly used in Pakistan
surface of earth which is caused by the differential solar heating of [46] and other countries [98–100]. The hub height of the
land, water and atmosphere of the earth. Therefore, wind energy is an turbine is 80 m and rotor diameter is 80.5 m.
indirect form of solar energy [18,90]. The speed and direction of wind  The number of turbines per square kilometer (turbine density)
is affected by radiation and rotation of the earth. Moreover differential has been estimated on the basis of spacing between individual
heating of the sea and land also affect the flow of air. Therefore, the turbines. The spacing between turbines is assumed to be 9 rotor
areas near the coast and the areas on the edge of bodies of water have diameters in the downwind direction, 5 rotor diameters in the
more potential of wind energy [91]. Availability of energy in wind direction perpendicular to the prevailing wind [100]. Eq. (12) is
depends upon the speed of air [92]. Wind speed increases with used to estimate the turbine density
increase in the height above the ground. Dt ¼ 1=ðð9  RdÞð5  RdÞÞ ð12Þ
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has conducted sur-
veys to assess the wind energy potential throughout the country. The where Dt is turbine density (per square meter) and Rd is rotor
commercially exploitable potentail is found only in Southern Pakistan, diameter (square meters). The estimated turbine density is 3.4 km2.
especially in the coastal areas of Sindh and Baluchistan. The wind
power potential in the coastal area is estimated by studying wind  The capacity factor (Cf) for 1.5 MW wind turbine ranges from
data at 20 sites. It has been estimated that suitable area in the coast 30% to 35% [46]. This study assumes 30% CF for potential
belt for wind energy generation is 9700 km2 with gross wind power estimation and the same CF is assumed for the whole planning
potential of 43,000 MW. The power density per square kilometer is period (2005–2050).
therefore 4 MW. However, land utilization constraints limits this
potential upto 11,000 MW [8]. The suitable area for this potential 4.3.4. Methodology
on the basis of power density is therefore estimated to be 2481 km2
(26% of total area). The other areas of country (Punjab, Khyber 4.3.4.1. The geographical potential. The estimation of wind energy
Pakhtoonkhaw, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and northerna areas) are geographical potential is slightly different from the geographical
not suitable for exploiting wind based energy for power generation potential estimated for solar and biomass energy sources. It is
[93]. estimated in terms of suitable area only. This is because of the fact
that suitable area is further constrained by application of wind
4.3.2. Overview of technologies turbines which requires specific distance from one another to
The power in the wind can be tapped through wind energy have maximum output. Therefore, geographical potential of wind
convertor (wind turbine) which extract energy from intercepted energy is defined as suitable onshore area available for extracting
wind and converts this energy into mechanical form, suitable for wind power [36]. It can be formulated as under:
electricity generation [18]. Wind turbines can be divided into two
groups: horizontal and verticle axes turbines. Horizantal axis GPw ¼ Ra  F ð13Þ
 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254 249

where, GPw is wind energy geographical potential, Ra is resource Table 13

2 Small hydro definition in different countries/
availability in terms of total available area (km ) and F is
regions of the world [109].
suitability factor (%) for wind turbines installation. The total
geographical potential is therefore 2481 km2. This approach Country/region Limit (MW)
of geographical potential estimation is consistent with work
of [36]. Canada and China r 50
The geographical potential of wind energy is based on the Brazil r 30
India r 25
assessment of wind energy potential in limited sites of Pakistan. European Union r 20
Expansion in the selection of sites in future may increase the Sweden r 15
potential of wind energy in Pakistan. However, whole geographi- Norway r 10
cal potential cannot be utilized to extract wind energy due nature United States 5–100
of wind turbine technology. Wind turbines are erected at certain
distance to extract maximum energy from wind which further
limits the area which is geographically available.
Table 14
4.3.4.2. Technical potential. The technical potential depends upon Detail of identified potential of small hydro in
2011 [105,108].
geographical potential and number of turbines which can be
installed in the suitable area and taking into account the Site description Potential (MW)
capacity factor. Mathematically, it can be written as:
Tributaries 1591
TPw ¼ GPw  Td  Tc  8760  Cf ð14Þ
Canals 674
where, TPw (MW h/year) is technical potential; GPw is geographical Dams 46
Micro hydro 300
potential (km  2); Td is turbine density (number of turbines.km  2);
Run-of river 347
Tc is turbine capacity (MW) and Cf is capacity factor (%). The technical
potential estimated for electricity generation is 34 TW h per year with
12,764 MW of installed capacity.
Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energies for
electricity generation in Pakistan in recent years. During 2006–2012, generation is 2265 MW [105]. This includes its potential on
18 firms (with installed capacity of 50 MW each) have initiated work tributaries, run of river and canals. Besides, sites have also been
and are at different stages of completion. Besides, 28 new firms have identified for 32 regional dams which are at different planning
shown their interest in wind energy generation. It is expected that stages. However, only 14 dams have planned to generate elec-
addition of these new firms will increase the installed capacity of tricity in addition to supplying water for irrigation and drinking.
wind based electricity generation up to 3200 MW in the near future The cumulative capacity of these 14 dams is 46 MW [105].
[101]. However, this reflects only 25% of available potential in Moreover, the potential of micro hydro based power generation
Pakistan. Therefore, more efforts are needed to exploit wind energy up to 100 kW on perennial water falls in northern part of Pakistan
for electricity generation in Pakistan. is estimated to be 300 MW [108]. Total identified potential is
therefore 2958 MW. Detail of the potential is given in Table 14.
4.4. Small hydro
4.4.2. Overview of technologies
4.4.1. Resource description and availability
Extraction of energy for electricity generation depends upon flow
The term hydro power refers to generation of shaft power from
rate and resulting varying water pressure and speed conditions.
falling water [24]. Like wind energy, hydro power is also an
Therefore, the technologies (turbines) for electricity generation can
indirect form of solar energy. Water evaporation from the oceans
broadly be divided into two subcategories. These are impulse turbine
and seas takes place due to solar heating and water then
and reaction turbine [18,90]. Impulse turbines are Pelton and cross-
condenses in the form of clouds and falls back to the earth as
flow turbines, while reaction turbines are Francis, Propeller, Kaplan
rain. Hydro power is thus the result of extracting some of this
and Straflo turbines [90]. Reaction turbines run faster and have higher
energy when water flows back to the sea [18]. Falling water has
efficiencies and therefore more commonly used for power generation
kinetic energy which can be converted into mechanical shaft
from small hydro power plants [109].
power through a turbine. This power can be used to drive an
electric generator. The power available is proportional to the
pressure (head) and volume flow rate [102]. Depending on the 4.4.3. Assumptions
water flow, hydropower systems can broadly be catagorized into The assumptions used for estimation of small hydro potential
large and small hydro systems. Large scale hydro is based on large are:
dams, where water is allowed to flow in a controled manner [18].
On the other hand, small hydro refers to the extraction of energy  Only grid connected power projects below 50 MW are con-
from small amount of water flows in rivers, canals and tributaries sidered for the estimation of small hydro potential. Micro
[102,103]. The difinition of small hydro in different countries is hydro and other smaller power projects (installed capacity
presented in Table 13. In general, small hydro power (SHP) is below 100 kW) are excluded.
taken as a power plant having an upper limit of 5 to 50 MW [104],  Existing and future power plants have been included.
and in Pakistan, the upper limit of SHP is 50 MW [105]. SHPs are  The estimation of energy generation from various projects have
built on run-of-river, and therefore do not need extended infra- been taken from available literature [110,111]. Details of existing
structure like reservoir or dam to store large amount of water, and some future power projects is given in Table A-4 (Appendix-A).
which leads to considerably less environmental implications  The average per Megawatt electricity generation is 4.25 GW h
[102,103,106]. (Table A-4 (Appendix-A)). This value is used to estimate the
Pakistan has significant SHP resource especially in hilly areas expected energy generation for the remaining potential.
[107], and the identified potential of small hydro power  The conversion efficiency is assumed to be 80% [105].
250 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254

4.4.4. Methodology Table 16

Plan for promotion of renewable energy in the power sector of Pakistan
(MW) [115].
4.4.4.1. Geographical potential. The geographical potential of small
hydro is estimated in terms of installation capacity suitable for grid Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
connected small hydro rather than suitable area. The geographical
potential of small hydro is: Wind 100 800 2000 3500 6000
Solar 1 100 500 1000 1500
GPsh ¼ Ra  F ð15Þ Biomass 60 300 500 750 1000
Small hydro 1 150 500 800 12000
where, GPsh (MW) is geographical potential of small hydro; Ra is Total 162 1350 3500 6050 9700
resource availability in terms of total available potential (MW)
(Table 10) and F is the potential suitable for grid connected
electricity generation (%). The potential which is not suitable for
grid connected micro hydro projects accounts for 10.14% of the total Table 17
potential. Therefore the geographical potential is estimated to be The total available potential and expected installed potential till 2015 (MW).
2658 MW.
The geographical potential of small hydro is based on the Energy Technology Total Capacity Total Remaining
Source potential addition installed potential
identified sites till 2011. Further improvement in technology may
(2010) capacity
increase the potential in future. However, in Pakistan water avail-
ability on these sites is seasonal which restricts electricity generation. Wind CNT 12,764 900 900 11,864
Solar PV DECNT 9,893 0 0 9,893
CNT 116,197 1 1 116,196
4.4.4.2. Technical potential. The technical potential of electricity Solar thermal CNT 22,587 0 0 22,587
generation depends on geographical potential and conversion Biomass CNT 5,420 24 24 5,396
efficiency. As the source is site specific and data is not fully Small hydro CNT 2,658 166 312 2346
available to estimate conversion efficiency for each site, the per Total 169,519 1091 1237 168282
unit (MW) electricity generation is used to estimate the total
technical potential. From available data, average per unit
electricity generation is 4.25 GW h (Table A-4 (Appendix-A)) government revised the target of increasing share of renewable
and so the technical potential of small hydro is 11 TW h per year. energy and set 5% of total installed capacity from renewables till
Small hydro power sector remained stagnant for the last 60 2030 [4]. The details of the plan are given in Table 16.
years (1950s–2010). The total installed capacity in 1960s was To materialize this plan, a number of incentives (financial and
108 MW which increased to 287 MW in 2010 (Table A-5 fiscal) are offered for investors in addition to surety of purchasing
(Appendix-A)). However, small hydro based power generation all the electricity generated. Fiscal incentives include tax exemp-
has recently been focused by the government mainly with help of tion on income and machinery and equipment. Major financial
Asian Development Bank (ADB), and in 2006 work has started on incentive is permission for power generation companies to issue
many run-of-river and canal based projects with a cumulative corporate registered bonds and shares.
capacity of 84 MW [111]. With expected addition of more Future prospects of renewable energy in Pakistan, however,
projects, the cumulative capacity of small hydro electricity gen- are encouraging, especially in case of wind energy. Table 17 gives
eration will be in 312 MW in 2019 [105]. However, it is still 12% details of renewable based power plants to be commissioned
of total available potential. More concrete efforts and policy till 2015.
decisions are therefore required to make this option viable. Table 17 shows that the planned installed capacity is still
lower than the target except for wind energy, where the planned
capacity is ahead of target by 100 MW. In case of small hydro,
5. Results and discussion progress has been made. However, there is a lack in the promo-
tion of solar based electricity generation projects despite its
The 2010–2050 geographical and technical potential of enormous potential, though in a number of developing countries
selected renewable energy sources estimated for Pakistan is given solar energy is used for power generation. China has 3093 MW
in Table 15. installed capacity of grid connected solar PV in 2011. Thailand is
The renewable energy potential (167.7 GW) has 8 times more implementing 149 MW solar PV plants till 2011 [112,113].
potential than the total electricity demand in the country Similarly, solar thermal power plants are being planned in China,
(21 GW) in 2010. In 2005, the government planned the target of India, Turkey and Thailand. Construction of MSW based power
having 10% of the total installed capacity in the country from RES plants can help in reducing the electricity crises in Pakistan and
by 2012 [23]. However, no grid connected renewable based also improve the local environment by reducing solid waste. India
installed capacity was added during 2005–2008. In 2008, the has already installed 372 MW of MSW based power plants [114].
Thailand has MSW based power generation since 2009 [115].
Table 15 Therefore, there is an urgent need of concrete policy actions for
Estimated electricity capacity from renewable energy sources 2010–2050 (GW).
promotion of renewable energy in the power generation sector.
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Wind (grid connected) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 6. Conclusion

Solar PV (DCNT) 9.9 14.1 19.1 24.5 29.9
Solar PV (CNT) 116.2 116.2 116.2 116.2 116.2
Solar thermal (CNT) 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 The electricity demand in Pakistan is increasing with increas-
Biomass (field residues) 1.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.7 ing population, expansion of industrial networks and improve-
Biomass (animal waste) 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1 ment in lifestyles. Production of electricity is currently heavily
Biomass (MSW) 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 dependent on fossil fuels. Limited domestic availability and
Small Hydro 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Total 167.7 173.0 179.3 186.1 193.9
increasing prices of fossil fuels are resulting in lower supply of
electricity, and the demand - supply gap is increasing. Under such
 M.K. Farooq, S. Kumar / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 20 (2013) 240–254 251

Table A-1
Comparison of main characteristics of the CSP technologies.
(Source: [33].)

Characteristics Parabolic trough Solar tower Tower linear Dish-sterling

Maturity of technology Commercially proven Pilot commercial projects Pilot projects Demonstration
projects
Key technology providers Abengoa solar, solar millennium, sener Abengoa solar, brightSource, Novatec solar,
group, energy, areva
acciona, siemens, nextEra, ACS, SAMCA, eSolar, solar reserve, torresol
etc
Technology development risk Low Medium Medium Medium
Operating temperature (1C) 350–550 250–565 390 550–750
Plant peak efficiency (%) 14–20 23–35 18 30
Annual solar-to-electricity efficiency 11–16 7–20 13 12–25
(net) (%)
Annual capacity factor (%) 25–43 55 22–24 25–28
Grid stability Medium to high High Medium Low
Cycle Superheated rankine steam cycle Superheated rankine steam Saturated rankine steam Stirling
cycle cycle
Steam conditions (1C/bar) 380 to 540/100 540/100 to 160 260/50 n.a
Water requirement (m3/MW h) 3 (wet cooling) 2–3(wet cooling) 3 (wet cooling) 0.05–0.1 (mirror
0.3 (dry cooling) 0.25(dry cooling) 0.2 (dry cooling) washing)
Application type On-grid On-grid On-grid On-grid
Suitability for air cooling Low to good Good Low Best
Storage with molten salt Commercially available Commercially available Possible, but not proven Possible, but not
proven

Table A-2
Detail of biomass power generation technologies.
(Source: [116].)

Characteristic Steam turbine Gas/ Micro-turbine Reciprocating Fuel cell Sterling engine
combustion IC engine
turbine

Size 50 kW to 250 MW 500 kW to 30 kW to Smaller than Smaller than 1 MW Smaller than 200 kW
40 MW 250 kW 5 MW
Fuels Biomass/Biogas Biogas Biogas Biogas Biogas Biomass/Biogas
Electric efficiency 5 to 30% 22 to 36% 22 to 30% 22 to 45% 30 to 63% 5 to 45%
Field experience Extensive Extensive Extensive Extensive Some Limited
Commercialization status Many models Many models Limited models Many models Commercial introduction Commercial introduction
available available available available and demonstration and demonstration
Installed cost $350 to $750/kW  $700 to $1,100 to $800 to $1,500/ $3,000 to $5,000/kW Variable $1,000 to
(as CHP system) (without boiler) $2,000/kW $2,000/kW kW $10,000/kW
Operations and maintenance Less than 0.6 to 0.8 to 0.8 to 1 to 4 b/kW h Around 1 b/kW h
(O and M) costs 0.4 b/kW h 1.1 b/kW h 2.0 b/kW h 2.5 b/kW h

Table A-3
Composition of MSW in different cities of Pakistan (%).
(Source: [50].)

GWAa FSDa KRIa HYDa PWRa QTAa IBDa MTNa LHRa AVGa

Plastic and rubber 5.00 4.80 3.60 3.20 3.70 8.60 2.82 4.48 5.63 4.65
Metals 0.30 0.20 0.75 0.50 0.30 1.20 0.05 0.30 0.32 0.44
Paper 2.50 2.10 2.40 3.40 2.10 1.20 0.67 2.40 2.70 2.16
Cardboard 1.80 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.90 1.30 0.37 – 0.00 1.25
Rags 3.20 5.20 4.70 4.30 4.30 5.10 2.12 6.98 7.45 4.82
Glass 1.50 1.30 1.60 3.40 1.30 1.50 0.38 0.80 0.70 1.39
Bones 3.20 2.90 2.00 2.00 1.70 2.00 0.38 1.03 0.86 1.79
Food waste 14.70 17.20 20.00 22.00 13.80 14.30 66.53 32.35 30.50 25.71
Animal waste 1.00 0.80 5.80 6.00 7.50 1.70 0.00 2.65 2.53 3.11
Leaves, grass etc. 12.80 15.60 13.50 13.50 13.50 10.20 25.54 20.21 20.20 16.12
Woods 0.80 0.70 2.25 2.25 0.60 1.50 0.08 1.30 1.24 1.19
Fines 47.50 43.00 38.90 34.40 42.00 43.60 0.12 27.50 0.00 30.78
Stones 5.70 4.60 3.00 3.20 7.30 7.80 0.94 – 27.65 7.52
Share (%)
Organic 40 46 52 55 45 37 96 67 65 56
inorganic 60 54 48 45 55 63 4 33 34 44

a
GWA¼ Gujranwala; FSD¼Faisalabad; KRI¼ Karachi; HYD¼ Hyderabad; PWR¼ Peshawar; QTA¼ Quetta; IBD¼ Islamabad; MTN¼ Multan; LHR¼ Lahore; AVG¼Average.
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