API Property Sentiment Report Q3 2024
API Property Sentiment Report Q3 2024
Australian
Property Sentiment
Report Q3 2024
20
Q
24
3
Editor’s summary
API Magazine’s Property Sentiment Report Q3 2024 is more pertinent than ever, coming at a genuine
crossroads moment for the Australian property market.
After almost two years of unbroken monthly property dwelling value increases nationally, the tide
seems to be turning.
Craig Francis
Four of the eight capital cities have recorded a quarterly price fall, according to CoreLogic, and growth
Editor
in the four still in positive territory – Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney – has slowed appreciably.
At such a pivotal time in the real estate market’s trajectory, gauging the public’s mood and sentiment towards all aspects of the
property market has perhaps never been more crucial or revealing.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the meteoric rise of one state in particular when it comes to investor sentiment. Victoria’s
perception of being unfriendly towards investors has been well and truly usurped by its more recent perception of being undervalued
and overdue for a capital growth rebound.
Respondents this quarter have delivered one of the most stunning changes of sentiment towards a state since the survey began.
From being an afterthought among investors, Victoria now ranks a close second to Queensland as the state on their collective
radar. Western Australia’s red hot property market has seemingly convinced many that it has run its race, and it has duly slipped
well down those rankings.
Buyers are again returning to the market in force, according to our survey respondents, and feeling slightly less drained by
mortgage or rental stress despite their acknowledgment that the cost of living is biting hard on household finances.
Interest rates are a major influencer of those household budgets and this survey also arrives at a time when conjecture around the
next rate movement – expected to be downwards – will be unfurled by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Stubbornly high inflation above the RBA’s preferred 2 to 3 per cent band, strong employment figures and continued high levels
of household spending have prevented the central bank from easing rates but the bias has recently shifted towards an imminent
cut as inflation gradually heads south.
Our respondents have made it clear that interest rates are among the four most influential variables affecting their property-related
decision-making, and their sensitivity to any unpleasant rate hike surprises – which the RBA has emphatically refused to rule out
– is only increasing.
So given the cost of living crisis, high interest rate environment and uncertainty around the direction of property prices generally,
it’s notable that the proportion of investors intending to buy in the next 12 months has risen sharply.
This could be attributed to the fact that more than 80 per cent of respondents are of the opinion that, overall, property prices will
continue their upwards march deep into 2025.
While investors are giving the market added momentum and a vote of confidence, there remain obstacles for prospective owner-
occupiers to enter the market.
The proportion of respondents saying inflation has definitely or somewhat affected their ability to gain a foothold on the property
ladder has climbed significantly in the last quarter.
The corrosive impact of inflation on savings capabilities has translated into one of the more striking results in this survey. In just
one quarter, the proportion of respondents citing a lack of deposit finances as their main restriction to entering the market has
more than doubled.
Yet, in the face of such obstacles, survey respondents remain generally buoyant about the property market’s overall prospects.
From a quadrupling of interest in commercial property in less than a year, to a sharp uptick in the proportion of respondents
indicating they would buy an investment property in the next 12 months, there remains a sense that the property market will
remain robust into 2025.
49.7%
Seasoned investor
1%
NT
19%
QLD
10%
WA
25.7% 4% SA
Owner-occupier
36%
NSW
2%
25%VIC ACT
3%
11.5% TAS
First-time investor
GENDER
7.7%
Rentvestor
41%
59%
3.0%
Renter
1.6% AGE
Other
18-24 13%
25-34 22%
35-44 24%
45-54 23%
The proportion of survey respondents opting to sit out or retain a wait and see approach to the real estate market has dropped
sharply over three successive quarters. Since peaking in the final quarter of 2023 at 39 per cent, those choosing not to transact in
the property market plunged to just 22 per cent.
Interestingly, this decline has not corresponded to a marked change in the proportion of buyers and sellers of residential property
entering contracts in the past 12 months. Instead, it has seen a quadrupling in those buying a commercial property (up from 3.1
per cent to 12.5 per cent in the past three quarters), with more gradual increases in those building a residential development
(2.7 to 4.9 per cent), building a residential property (3.6 to 7.5 per cent), and selling a commercial property (3.0 to 6.5 per cent).
The buying and selling of residential property is still the overwhelmingly dominant force, accounting for 34 per cent of annual
transactions. But commercial property is becoming a more significant player, with more than one fifth of respondents active in this
space (20.8 per cent buying, selling or building commercial property).
40% 25%
35%
20%
30%
25%
15%
20%
10%
15%
10%
5%
5%
Data from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) reveals that around 20 per cent of Australia’s 11.4 million taxpayers own an
investment property. According to the ATO, 71 per cent own one investment property, 19 per cent own two, 6 per cent own three
and fewer than 1 per cent own six or more.
Among our relatively real estate-savvy respondents, the proportion of people transacting on investment properties is higher than
the wider community.
Most tellingly this quarter, the gap between those transacting on one and two investment properties has been steadily closing. A
year ago, that gap stood at 18 percentage points. Now, it has closed to just 11 percentage points, with 36 per cent of respondents
saying they had transacted (as buyer or seller) on one investment property, compared to 25 per cent who had transacted on two.
Interestingly, while the proportion of respondents saying they had transacted on three or four properties in the past 12 months had
slipped significantly this quarter (from 13 to 7 per cent for three properties, and 8.5 to 7.0 for four), there was an almost doubling
of those having done so on five properties, up from 6 to 11 per cent.
3%
4%
7% 7% 7%
11%
25%
36%
It’s not the heady days of Q3 2020 when a staggering 45 per cent of respondents planned to buy within the coming 12 months.
That proportion steadily declined to an ebb of 22 per cent at the start of 2023 but has since inched up again to 29 per cent, up
a couple of per cent on last quarter.
Renters were thin on the ground among our survey respondents three years ago. In the corresponding quarter of 2020, just 2
per cent intended to rent in the coming year. With some undulations along the way, that figure has climbed consistently since.
In this survey, real estate affordability issues would appear to be weighing on the market after years of capital growth in most
property markets. The intention to rent has hit a peak since our survey first recorded this information, now sitting at just below
12 per cent.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the well publicised issues that have arisen around high construction costs, failed builders and
apartment build quality issues, the proportion of respondents saying they planned to build in the coming year had fallen appreciably,
down from more than 10 per cent at the end of 2023 to 6.8 per cent in the latest quarter.
29+13+11109872z
7% Buy a property
8% Rent a property
29%
Sell a property
9% None/other
Lease out your property
Renovate/subdivide a property
10%
Invest in property syndicates
12%
Build a property
11%
11% Buy or develop an NDIS property
45%
12%
10% 9% 10% 7% 8% 7%
7% 9%
2%
The past quarter has seen a marked shift towards the traditional investment vehicles of houses, units and apartments, with a
corresponding drop off in the proportion of buyers looking to buy alternative property assets.
There was a four percentage point lift in each of the former categories (houses and apartments/units/duplexes). Buyers were
indicating a greater reluctance to buy townhouses/villas (down 3.2 percentage points), vacant land (down 2.8), and commercial
assets (down 2.0).
As well as the property types in the sights of buyers, over the past three months there was also a significant change in the
composition of investors looking to buy within the next 12 months.
Owner-occupiers plummeted from a fraction under 30 per cent to just 18 per cent, whereas investors accounted for 63 per cent
of those intending to buy in the next 12 months, an almost 10 percentage point rise in Q2 2024.
63+18+145z
next 12 months? in the next 12 months?
5%
14%
Investor Developer
Owner occupier Not applicable
14% 11%
Townhouse/Villa Commercial asset
7% 3% 2%
Vacant land Rural Other
Possibly the most dramatic shift in sentiment contained in this report is the dramatic upturn in respondents identifying Victoria as
having the best investment prospects for the coming 12 months.
The quantum leap from 8.6 per cent to a quarter of all those surveyed is an unprecedented shift in sentiment in the four years
API Magazine has been conducting these reports. Clearly, property watchers have decided Victoria’s rapid tumbling from second
priciest real estate market to one of the cheapest (with Melbourne only above Hobart and Darwin among the capitals) has created
a sound value proposition.
A surge in property listings, high property taxes and a faltering economy have weighed heavily on Melbourne, where prices have
fallen continually since the first quarter of 2024.
With that fall has come a perception that Melbourne is now affordable and, if history is anything to go by, poised for capital growth
that would return it to its more familiar spot sitting beneath Sydney as the country’s priciest market.
Queensland’s top billing remains intact but Victoria is closing in fast, with New South Wales just 1 per cent further back in the
pecking order.
Western Australia’s brief reign as the second most favoured investment target is now in the rear view mirror. Since threatening
at the start of this year to challenge Queensland’s constant stranglehold on top spot, the 20 per cent-plus annual dwelling price
growth experienced in Perth and the regions has seemingly convinced prospective investors that it has exhausted its potential.
15% 14%
13%
10% 11% 9%
11%
8% 7%
6%
3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 4% 1%
With four in five respondents identifying themselves as landlords, there is no cohort better qualified to stipulate what a good rental
return is, or to weigh up the pros and cons of potentially losing a good tenant in pursuit of higher rent.
In 18 months of tracking landlords’ rental yield expectations, the favoured bracket has changed for the first time. Investment
property owners now regard a lower bracket as their idea of satisfactory rental yield, with the 4.6-5.5 per cent range now usurped
by the bracket below that (3.6-4.5 per cent).
Even though rents continue to rise, albeit at a decreasing pace month-on-month, rental yields have eased due to property price
growth exceeding the pace of rental income rises. With that has come lower expectations among landlords.
With rental market vacancy rates rising, the willingness for landlords to lose a good tenant has correspondingly inched downwards
as renters gain a little more selectivity. This quarter’s 70:30 split in favour of landlords retaining their tenants, after last quarter’s
66:34 split, spelt better news for renters.
79% 30%
Yes
Yes
70%
No
Aside from a blip on the radar last quarter, survey respondents had been increasingly convinced every quarter since Q2 2022 that
property prices were going to rise. Two and half years ago fewer than 30 per cent of respondents were of that mindset. Today,
that figure is above 80 per cent for the property market as a whole.
The same trend has played out when it comes to the regional property market. After falling 13 percentage points last quarter, most
of that drop has been recovered, with 64 per cent respondents now expecting prices to rise. This is the second highest ratio in
the nine quarters this metric has been measured.
This buoyant outlook comes at an apparent crossroads for the property market. Even though the overall growth in dwelling values
continues, numerous capital cities are experiencing price declines. Four capital cities recorded a fall in dwelling values through
the September quarter, led by Melbourne where values were down 1.1 per cent. Canberra, Hobart and Darwin also recorded
declines over that quarter.
“ Interest rates have probably peaked and prices will likely respond by
increasing at a moderate pace in the majority of states.”
Q3 2024 Survey respondent.
It’s difficult to slide a playing card between the ‘big four’ factors shaping the property decision-making process.
Just half a per cent separates the proportion of respondents who see affordability, finance availability, rental yields and interest
rates as key factors influencing their real estate-related actions.
It’s a sentiment pattern that has been playing out consistently every quarter since as far back as early 2022.
Where sentiment has shifted is in regard to land tax. It’s now in the mid-range of influential variables, having almost doubled to 7
per cent since Q4 2022.
Given the lack of housing supply within the Australian property market, and the fact it is influencing elections, it is perhaps a
surprise that supply concerns are only clocking in at 8 per cent, a figure it shares with price fluctuations.
When it comes to what people believe is having the greatest impact on property prices, housing supply comes to the fore. It is a
variable that has been universally attributed as a key factor propping up house prices, and this survey reflects that.
Just shy of 20 per cent of respondents had supply as the most compelling force in the property market. Interest rates have also
reimposed themselves in the psyche of property watchers, bouncing back up to 16 per cent after a dip last quarter.
Australia’s record-breaking levels of population growth and international migration remain a point of interest but have not moved
appreciably in the past six months, still sitting in third place when it comes to being a property price influencer.
Government incentives 4%
Building costs 3%
Quality of construction 3%
Other 1%
The prospect of interest rate cuts has been dangling in front of borrowers eager for a reprieve from onerous mortgage repayments
and investors looking to make property a viable financial option. But like kids waiting for Santa, that day just seems to never come.
For property buyers sitting on the sidelines and those pondering the timing of a sale, signs are emerging of a greater sensitivity
to interest rate levels. Both cohorts – sellers and buyers – recorded sizeable upticks in the proportion who said interest rates are
affecting their decision.
What is equally evident is that people are clearer than ever on their opinion. There was a notable, and unusual, increase among
both sellers and buyers who said interest rates were affecting their decision to buy, and to sell, in the next 12 months. The
diminishing ‘unsure’ brigade was what untethered the normal correlation that would see the ‘yes’ (interest rates are affecting their
intentions) and ‘no’ camps move in opposite directions each survey.
Buyers and sellers were also equally sensitive to the size of any potential rate increase, a possibility not entirely ruled out by the
RBA if inflation’s trajectory stalls or goes back up. Both groups had a very sharp upturn in the proportion of respondents saying
a 0.25 per cent hike would be a turning point, with the 0.5 per cent option declining.
Sellers have been particularly strident in declaring a 0.25 per cent hike is their limit, with that proportion soaring in just six months
from 35 per cent to 63 per cent.
Buy
21% 0.10% 15%
Sell
45% 0.25% 63%
14% 1.00% 6%
Australia’s stubbornly high inflation rate has had a detrimental effect on every facet of household life, from higher mortgage
repayments, flow-on rent hikes, and higher living costs for everything from food to furniture.
In just six months, the proportion of respondents saying inflation has definitely or somewhat affected their ability to enter the
property market has climbed from 61 to 71 per cent.
A mere 5 per cent say they are definitely not curtailed by inflation, while another 24 per cent say they are probably not impacted.
Inflation has fallen from its peak of December 2022 headline rate of 7.8 per cent (or 6.8 per cent by the trimmed mean measure)
and is close to the RBA’s goal of being below 3 per cent.
Most economists do not expect the RBA to deliver its first post-pandemic cash rate cut until around February 2025, but at least
inflationary pressures are easing somewhat – for now.
22+49
78+O 24
+51O 6
+76O +94O
Does unusually high inflation
affect your ability to enter
22% 49% 24% 5%
the property market or Definitely Somewhat Probably Definitely
yes yes not not
influence your property
transaction decisions?
40%
30%
20%
10%
“ Time in the market instead of timing the market, with property as a long term
strategy, will outweigh temporary inflationary pressures.”
Q3 2024 Survey respondent.
Less than ten years ago, foreign buyers of Australian property were treated no differently to locals in terms of taxes and charges.
Today it’s a very different picture.
Established properties now attract an application fee of $44,100 for a property under $1 million, rising to $88,500 if value is
between $1 million and $2 million. It lifts in value thereafter by $88,500 per extra million.
There are flow-on effects to housing. Foreign-owned properties are more likely to add to the rental pool, for example. But states
are seemingly queuing up to raise taxes on foreign buyers.
And our respondents are becoming increasingly wary of this, it would seem.
Less than a year ago (Q4 2023), an overwhelming 73 per cent of respondents said there should be no financial incentives or tax
concessions for foreign buyers, versus just 17 per cent who said there should be.
Amid a rental crisis, that divide of 56 percentage points has now closed to just 8 per cent.
80% Yes
70% No
Unsure
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2023 Q3 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Throughout 2023 the proportion of respondents regarding their household as being under mortgage or rental stress had declined
steadily over those four quarters. That figure rose sharply earlier this year and has again edged upwards, from 34 to 36 per cent
this year.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently said, “For owner-occupiers with variable-rate loans, we estimate that around 5 per
cent are in a particularly challenging situation, where the combined total of their essential spending and scheduled mortgage
repayments is more than their income – that is, they have a cash flow shortfall.”
While these survey results, if extrapolated, would represent millions of Australian households struggling to pay their accommodation
expenses, there is a glimmer of light.
The ratio of people responding that they lapsed into this situation in the past 12 months is at an all-time low since we first sought
out a response around this issue in Q4 2022.
60+40+O 60%
36+64+O4+96+O
Do you regard your household as being No
90%
80%
“ Debts levels are far too high among households and businesses. If rates stay
where they are, or even increase, then I think we will start to see more fire sales
and a lot more stock on the market.” Q3 2024 Survey respondent.
Buying an investment property has almost exclusively dominated the list of planned real estate-related investment strategies since
our survey first tracked this parameter in 2022.
But the past three months have seen this priority make its second largest quarterly leap in eight surveys, rebounding from its
previous 3 per cent drop to 17 per cent of respondents saying they planned to buy an investment in the coming 12 months, up
10 per cent to 27 per cent.
Reducing loan debt and positioning for retirement were the next highest priorities, and both recorded a solid uptick this quarter,
at the expense of the rest of the listed strategies.
None/other 3%
Downsize property 1%
The cost of living crisis engulfing so many households has seen savings dissipate to almost nothing.
Australia’s household saving ratio, published by the ABS each quarter, is expressed as a percentage and reflects how much
of their disposable income (income after taxes, interest costs, insurance premiums etc.) the average Australian is saving. The
household savings rate has plunged to 0.6, which means Aussie households on the whole spent 99.4 per cent of their disposable
income.
To put that in perspective, in the second quarter of 2020 the savings rate was at a record 24.1 per cent, and from 1959 to today
averages 9.3 per cent.
This inability to squirrel away even a tiny fraction of income has seen one factor burst from midtable on the list of factors holding
people back from buying an investment property.
In just one quarter, the proportion of respondents citing a lack of deposit finances as their main restriction has more than doubled,
up from 12 to 25 per cent.
Just three months ago, it was regarded as the fourth most pressing limitation, and it’s now the breakout unchallenged leading
issue, above ‘life circumstances’ and ‘being unable to obtain credit’.
“ Not enough going for the landlord, they take all the risk, too many new
hurdles to jump through, high costs to maintain older properties and keep up
with regulations, tenants getting all the breaks at the landlord expense and no
incentive for landlords who help provide housing.”
Q3 2024 Survey respondent.
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Disclaimer: All data and results have been independently collated by Australian Property Investor Magazine and while all due care has been taken to represent true and accurate information it may not
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investors are advised to do the necessary checks and research on any investments beforehand. Gender and age data sourced from Google Analytics. © Australian Property Investor Platform Pty Ltd 2024.