The McGrath Report 2020 - McGrath Estate Agents
The McGrath Report 2020 - McGrath Estate Agents
The McGrath Report 2020 - McGrath Estate Agents
Contents
Trends
House of the Future page 06
City Spotlights
Sydney page 22
Melbourne page 28
Canberra page 36
01
McGrath Report 2020
A message
from John McGrath
People are constantly asking me, ‘Where are we in You might have had a slightly different experience
the cycle?’. depending on the micro-market you live in but
generally speaking, East Coast home owners have
I can see why many people have been looking at the done well out of property in recent times.
market a bit quizzically over the past few years. If
we look from above, here’s what most of East Coast Unfortunately, our friends in Perth and Darwin can’t
Australia has looked like over the past seven years. report the same enjoyment but their turn will come
very soon, in my opinion.
We’ve had five years of growth (25% to 75%), 18 months
of correction (-5% to -20%) and a small rebound to the Let me share a few of my observations and the trends
positive (not material yet in price but auction rates that I believe are having an impact (some positive,
have shifted up from 45% to 75%) after APRA finally some negative) on market performance.
loosened the strings and official interest rate cuts
began having an impact.
02
A message from John McGrath
03
McGrath Report 2020
- Transition costs. Upgraders in big cities are paying It appears we might be in this environment for some
close to $100,000 in fees and absurdly high stamp time to come, which works positively on two levels
duty. If we went back just 20 years for direct for the property market:
comparison, we are now paying an additional
$40,000 (inflation adjusted) or 400% more - It’s cheaper to borrow money. Pretty
in real terms. This is ridiculous and penalises straightforward. The cheaper it is, the more
almost every single Australian moving around people buy and the more they can borrow
the property ladder as their life circumstances
change. But it’s the issue that nobody wants to - Property becomes the No 1 investment choice.
talk about in government, on either side. With Real estate is far more attractive when you’re
the exception of the ACT Government, which has getting close to zero for lazy cash in the bank.
a plan to phase out stamp duty by 2032, there The days of 5% or 6% returns on deposits are long
seems very little appetite by State Governments behind us. The closest asset to cash in the bank,
to find a better way. They seem addicted to the in most people’s minds, is bricks and mortar.
revenue it brings them. As a result, it’s possible The safe, solid investment that lets most people
that these lower levels of activity will remain for sleep at night. The investors who bailed out of
some time the market two years ago are likely to return in
numbers from 2020 onwards.
- Uncertainty in the world economy. And when
people are uncertain, they generally stay put
and watch. The 24-hour news cycle bombards us
with every piece of negative news on the planet.
Whether it’s Brexit, the US-China trade war or
the China-Hong Kong tensions, many people are
waiting to see how some of these play out. With
the 2020 US election looming large, we may find
that until we get some resolution on these issues
and clarity on the political direction of the US,
listing levels will remain on the low side.
04
A message from John McGrath
So, as we peek into the crystal ball, - Prices remain stable on the East Coast; Darwin
here are a few of my predictions... and Perth see a positive bounce by 2021
- I nvestors return in sizeable numbers – 3% plus capital - Investment or lower grade apartments built in
growth beats the hell out of 1% or none for cash the past decade fall in popularity due to recent
construction issues. Older style apartments and
- Overseas buyers return, and I anticipate some high quality new builds by A-grade developers
of the recently formed overseas investor taxes and builders experience stronger demand
starting to loosen and Australia continuing to look
like the best place to live, learn and work - Massive infrastructure investment has a positive
impact on values in hidden pockets
- Regional markets continue to grow in popularity
courtesy of high metropolitan prices, baby boomer - South East Queensland outperforms, with
sea and treechangers and people being able to both investors and lifestyle seekers looking for
work virtually from anywhere in this new world better value than they can obtain in the big
southern cities
- Listings remain tight in the short term but return
to more normal levels beyond 12 months We hope you enjoy this year’s McGrath Report.
05
McGrath Report 2020
House of
the Future
Trend Report 01
The move to minimalism is resulting in smaller, Families are also shrinking, reducing the need for
simpler homes with streamlined, open spaces that are space. Australian women are having fewer children,
easy to maintain and provide a sanctuary-style escape with the fertility rate at 1.74 babies per woman –
from a hectic world. the lowest since 2001.4 The proportion of Australians
living within traditional families has fallen from 54%
Demographics are driving the move towards more in 1996 to 49% in 2016; and this is forecast to fall
affordable, minimalist homes. Two megatrends – further to 48% in 2041.
the ageing population and the shrinking family,
mean fewer people per Australian residence. By contrast, couples living without children have
increased from 19% to 21%.5 This has been helped by
The ageing population will see more downsizer single a big jump in couples aged 25-34 years who don’t have
and couple-only households. In the 2016 Census, children, as more millennials choose to start their
14% of Australians were aged 65 years and over, families later in life.3
an increase from 11% in 2011.1 This is expected to
further rise to 21-23% of the total population by 2066.2 Australia’s surging population, which is expected to
Lone person households are expected to grow from grow from 25 million to 37-49 million in 2066, means
2.3 million in 2016 to 3-3.5 million by 2041.3 major cities will have to make more use of medium
and high density options.6
06
House of the Future
2019
1988
07
McGrath Report 2020
Increasingly time poor home owners want more In Australia, tiny might not become typical but smaller
flexibility and lower maintenance properties to suit will be standard. While the size of our homes grew by
their busy lifestyles. Many people don’t have time 30% in the 30 years to FY18, accelerating through the
to mow lawns or clean large residences anymore. 1980s and 1990s, the average size of the Australian
home is now the smallest it has been in 22 years,
An important factor driving the move to minimalism reflecting more apartment living.12
is psychological.
The smaller home will meet people’s growing desire to
Japanese tidying expert, Marie Kondo has popularised cut their environmental footprint. Bigger homes wipe
minimalism through her best-selling book, ‘The Life- out the benefits of more energy efficient dwellings.13
Changing Magic of Tidying Up’ and her hit Netflix show, Cutting the size of a house by 5-10% makes it easier to
‘Tidying Up with Marie Kondo’. People are realising move to zero net energy – a household with no ongoing
they are happier and healthier in a minimalist home, energy costs.14
which is backed by scientific research.
Only essential furniture will remain and stylish yet easy
A study by the US Centre on the Everyday Lives of to clean features will dominate, such as timber floors
Families (CELF) revealed a ‘clutter crisis’7 amongst and stone benches and vanities. The growth of renting,
Los Angeles home owners. It found that women in including cars and even clothes, will make garages and
homes they described as stressful, including cluttered storage increasingly unnecessary.
and unfinished, were more likely to suffer from chronic
stress, depression through the day and greater fatigue
at night.8
08
House of the Future
Tiny homes
significantly cut
emissions because
they need less
heating and lighting.
09
McGrath Report 2020
Trend Report 02
The Modern
Commuter
For much of the noughties, Australian airports These savings offset the expense of flying and lodging
on Monday mornings were filled with blue collar in the city, although some professional FIFOs have
workers in boots and high-vis vests. After a weekend their commuting costs covered by their employers.
in their city homes, they were flying back to well- This is more common in banking, consultancy and
paying jobs at the mines. IT industries.
Now, a new fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) worker is emerging Many big companies are allowing more of their
that will have a significant impact on regional employees to work remotely, at least part of the
property markets – the white collar FIFO. time, as a way of retaining and attracting the
best talent. Amongst Australia’s one million
Professional FIFO families are relocating from independent contractors,2 many can work flexibly
expensive capital cities to affordable regional and using technology.
coastal lifestyle areas serviced by airports, where
they are pushing up demand for property. Professional FIFOs are also seeking lower stress
and healthier lifestyles. On weekends, they can
Come Monday, they are hopping on a plane to work be surrounded by rolling green hills and farmland,
in the city, staying in crash pads, boltholes and even surfing little-known breaks or roaming through
hotels. Some even Airbnb their city pads when they untouched rainforest in remote national parks.
fly back home to defray costs. Everything they need is within a 10 minute traffic-
free drive – their children’s schools, playing fields
The search for lower cost of living, housing for Saturday sports, shops and cafes.
affordability and a better lifestyle are major drivers
for white collar FIFOs. Increasing air travel options are allowing these
modern day commuters to extend the range of where
As East Coast capital city house prices have surged, they can live. There are 155 airports in Australia and
particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, affordable 2,000 smaller airfields. About 75% of airports are in
regional areas have become more appealing. regional and remote areas,3 most with regular flights
Professional FIFOs can sell up in the city and buy to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
a larger ‘forever’ home in a regional area with
a small mortgage or even no debt at all. To cope with growing demand from expanding
residential populations, many regional airports
Small townsfolk are more likely to own their homes are increasing flights and boosting infrastructure.
outright (35% compared to 28% in major cities); and
they also have lower loan repayments at a median In Victoria, Bendigo Airport is undergoing a major
$1,414 per month compared to $1,483 in medium redevelopment. Since March 2019, the airport has
sized towns and $1,943 in major cities.1 had flights to Sydney six days per week.
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McGrath Report 2020
Ballina Byron Gateway Airport, which offers a one Orange Regional - Strongest growth amongst the
hour flight to Sydney, is now the third busiest airport top 50 regional airports in CY18,
with passenger movements up
in NSW after Sydney and Newcastle. It recorded a 19.9%7
5.6% rise in annual passenger movements over CY18 - It has 25 return flights to Sydney
to 538,200.7 per week
QLD
Port Macquarie, also a one hour flight to Sydney,
Toowoomba Wellcamp - More than 80 flights per week to
is the fifth largest regional airport in NSW with destinations including Melbourne
230,000 passenger movements per year.8 Council and Sydney
has completed a $21 million upgrade, providing the
Gold Coast - Flights to every capital city
capability for 180-seat B737/A320 aircraft for the - 6.6 million passengers per year,
first time in the airport’s 60-year history. which is set to double by 2037
12
The Modern Commuter
-10.2 %
Sunshine Coast Airport is opening a new runway
in 2020 to allow long haul flights within Australia
and to Asia. Passenger numbers are expected to
soar from 1.2 million today to 3 million by 2040.
This will help facilitate a surge in the local Fall in value of combined capital
city dwellings from the peak to
population from 350,000 to 500,000.10
June 30, 201911
-3.4 %
Regional property prices performed well during
the downturn. CoreLogic data shows combined
capital city dwelling values were down -10.2% from
the peak by June 30, 2019 while regional markets
fell just -3.4%.11 Fall in value of regional dwellings
from the peak to June 30, 201911
Trend Report 03
A High Rise
to Low Rise
Australia’s cities and skylines have been transformed From FY04 to FY18, commencements of super high
by a proliferation of high rise apartments but has our rise apartments (more than 20 storeys) surged by
fascination with homes in the sky reached its peak an astounding 510%. In contrast, high rise buildings
and will we see an increasing desire for people to (nine to 19 storeys) increased 186%, medium high rise
own a small parcel of terra firma? (four to eight storeys) rose 120%; and low rise (one to
three storeys) fell -36.8%.2
While the high rise will always have its place,
especially as the population grows, a shift is A number of factors will contribute to the shift in
coming that will see many Australians, particularly buyer sentiment. The first is a flight to quality.
downsizers, seek more small home options, including
terraces, townhouses and low rise apartments in Apartment owners and buyers, particularly in
master planned estates. Sydney, were shocked in 2019 when residents were
evacuated from two high rise buildings, Opal Tower
In recent years, apartments have grown in number in Homebush in the inner west; and Mascot Towers in
and height. The number of occupied apartments has the inner south, due to significant structural defects.
increased by 78% in the past quarter century to 1.2
million in 20161 and most of these new buildings have The reputation of high rise apartments has been
reached for the stars. tarnished by these events. As a result, buyers will be
14
A High Rise to Low Rise
Apartment Commencements
2004 – 2018
2004
Low rise Medium high rise High rise Super high rise
more than 1-3 storeys more than 4-8 storeys more than 9-19 storeys more than 20 storeys
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McGrath Report 2020
far more discerning and likely to gravitate towards to have a 25-35% premium over comparable
well known developers with strong brands and non-branded apartments.3
track records.
The demands of downsizers is another factor in the
Another beneficiary of the flight to quality will be shift to medium density living. Downsizers are often
branded residences – private residences serviced by a concerned by expensive strata levies associated with
luxury hotel brand that is already known and trusted high rise to maintain lifts, pools and gyms.
by prestige buyers.
There has been talk of a need to create vertical
Crown Residences at Sydney’s One Barangaroo, retirement villages in inner city high rise buildings,
due for completion in 2021, represents the entry of with designated seniors apartments.4 However, many
branded residences into Australia. Buyers of the 82 older Australians struggle to reconcile themselves to
apartments with a $9.5 million starting price will have high rise living after decades in the family home. Three
access to the facilities and services of the city’s first quarters of Australians aged over 75 live in detached
six star hotel, Crown Sydney Hotel Resort. houses5 and only 12% of over-85s live in apartments.1
Branded residences command premiums of up to 132% However, downsizers and other buyers seem to
in some Asian cities, while One Barangaroo is expected be taking a fancy to a growing number of low rise
16
A High Rise to Low Rise
apartments in master planned estates, where they High rise living has changed in recent years,
can enjoy quiet, pleasant surrounds with lower body with smart developers moving away from the cookie
corporate levies. They also have access to amenities, cutter style to higher quality, designer residences
such as expansive green spaces, walking and cycling with lifestyle appeal.
paths, playgrounds and plentiful parking for visitors.
While the high rise won’t die, it is evolving
In Melbourne’s Clayton South, developer Cedar beyond the traditional tower in look and feel;
Woods’ master planned community, Jackson Green, and an uncompromising overhaul of construction
incorporates one and two bedroom apartments, standards and governance must follow to win
some with outdoor areas of up to 103 sqm. back buyers’ trust.
The developer says it is attracting buyers seeking
high quality apartments in a quiet suburban setting.6
17
McGrath Report 2020
Loner Living
Trend Report 04
18
Loner Living
Confident and content with their single status, In Australia, the number of people living alone is
our new loner liver home buyers want smaller forecast to surge from 2.3 million in 2016 to 3-3.5
home options that suit their unique needs while million in 2041, an increase of 32-53%.5
also delivering a community right on their doorstep.
The number of one person households is projected
Almost a quarter of Australian homes in 2016 were to grow in all OECD countries from the early
single person households, an increase from one in mid-2000s to 2025-30. The biggest increases are
five in 1991.1 forecast for England (60%), New Zealand (71%)
and France (75%).6
The growth of loner living has been experienced
around the world. Approximately one third of One of the main drivers of loner living is an ageing
households in the EU in 2017 comprised single demographic. In 2016, 14% of Australians were aged
adults without children.2 In the UK in 2017, 65 years or over, an increase from 11% in 2011.7 This
28% of households contained one person, a big is forecast to rise to 21-23% by 2066.8 There has been
increase from around 17% in 1971.3 In the US, a sharp increase in those aged 80 years or over living
some 35.4 million people, or 28.1% of all households, alone (from 9% in 1986 to 15% in 2011) and middle-
lived alone – a strong rise from 17.1% in 1970.4 aged people living alone (22% in 1986 to 31% in 2011).9
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McGrath Report 2020
Older Australians are more likely to be widowed Walkable residential areas are also more valuable.
and live alone by circumstance. Conversely, there is The George Washington University School of
growing evidence that young people are choosing to Business found walkable urban places had a 66%
live alone. Young people are marrying later, extending rental rate premium over driveable suburban
their single status. The median age at first marriage areas in the US.13
in 2017 was 30.4 years for men and 28.8 years for
women. In the past decade, this has increased 0.8 Research is also showing a positive correlation
years for men and 1.2 years for women.10 between property prices and walkscore.com’s
Walk Score, a measure of an address’s walkability
Community is at the heart of a single person’s needs on a scale of 0-100. A US study by urban leadership
in property. Rather than the selfish stereotype, group, CEOs for Cities, found a one point increase
research shows single people are heavily engaged in Walk Score raised house prices between $US500
with their community and more likely to help friends, and $US3,00014 in 13 of the 15 US markets surveyed.
neighbours and co-workers with shopping, errands,
housework, transport and gardening.11 This is replicated in Australia. Melbourne buyers’
agency, Secret Agent, found a five point increase in
Developers are increasingly delivering ready-made Walk Score between the values of 60 and 100 added
communities for singles in apartment complexes. around $298 per square metre for houses.15
They are moving beyond the pool and gym to offer
many more facilities that encourage interaction, The emergence of small, thriving suburban villages
such as communal rooftop gardens and kitchens, and a strong café culture in Australia has made
chill-out zones, yoga studios, libraries and in-house walkability even more desirable, particularly
cinemas. After a busy week, singles can go home amongst time poor, environmentally conscious city
and socialise in their building with other residents. dwellers. They don’t want to drive on weekends
after commuting all week and are mindful that their
Singles also want community on their doorstep. sedentary jobs aren’t good for their health in this
The walkability of their homes is important to ensure era of obesity.
loner living doesn’t become lonely living. Being
able to stroll to their local village for a coffee, some Loner livers are aspiring to a unique type of
shopping or lunch with a friend is highly valued. home. Across the East Coast capitals, downsizers
typically like luxurious new apartments in
In one study cited in the landmark book, Livable boutique, pet friendly blocks close to shops
Streets, Berkeley University urban design professor, and transport to the CBD. Some developers are
Donald Appleyard found people living in walkable, creating full blocks with this one type of residence
low traffic streets had three times as many friends alone, enabling the formation of empty nester
and twice as many acquaintances as people living communities that allow downsizers to age in place
in heavy traffic areas.12 with like-minded neighbours.
Sydney Melbourne
Walk Score 63 Top 10 Suburbs Walk Score 57 Top 10 Suburbs
01 Haymarket 99 01 Carlton 97
02 The Rocks 98 02 Fitzroy 96
03 Sydney 98 03 Fitzroy North 93
04 Ultimo 98 04 Melbourne 93
05 Surry Hills 97 05 St Kilda 93
06 Chippendale 97 06 South Yarra 92
07 Millers Point 96 07 East Melbourne 92
08 Darlinghurst 96 08 South Melbourne 92
09 Newtown 95 09 Collingwood 92
10 Rushcutters Bay 94 10 Windsor 91
20
Loner Living
21
McGrath Report 2020
Sydney
City Spotlight 01
Median house
price $900,017
Median apartment
price $710,559
CoreLogic, September 2019
01
The Sydney market turned the corner a year
earlier than expected, with a combination of
factors including the ‘ScoMo effect’, APRA’s
easing of lending criteria and interest rate cuts
bringing forward a conclusion to the steepest
correction on record, with home values falling
-14.9%1 from the peak in July 2017 to the trough
in May 2019.
22
Sydney
While the election outcome turbocharged market house price growth for Sydney over CY20 and CY21,
sentiment, with no changes to capital gains tax or with best gains in Sutherland (15.9%), Baulkham
negative gearing, Sydney was already finding its feet Hills/Hawkesbury (15.3%), Blacktown (13.5%) and the
with progressively smaller price falls from January. Northern Beaches (10.8%).6
The first month of price growth in June 20191 combined Apartments will rebound 10%, with strongest gains
with auction clearance rates rising above 75%2 indicated in Parramatta (14.5%), the Outer South West in areas
the market floor had arrived or already passed us by. such as Camden and Wollondilly (14%) and the Inner
West (13.6%).6
Fear of paying too much was replaced by fear of
missing out during Winter 2019, with listing volumes Critical new infrastructure bringing Sydney’s
at a decade low contributing to buoyant auction prices affordable outskirts closer to the CBD continues to
in several areas. be rolled out across the city. The Sydney Metro North
West heralded a new era for the Hills District, with
Credit restrictions relegated many buyers to the immense opportunity to capitalise on the new train
sidelines in 2018 and the first half of 2019, resulting in line following house price dips of -13.9% in Castle Hill,
new loans to NSW owner occupiers falling 28%3 and -18.3% in Rouse Hill and -8.3% in Kellyville in the
investment lending halving from their peaks.4 12 months to June 30, 2019.7
Falling prices inspired the highest level of first Also opening in July 2019 was the first underground
home buying in Sydney in seven years.5 Stamp duty section of WestConnex – two 5.5km M4 tunnels from
concessions, a $10,000 grant on new homes, Homebush to Haberfield, reducing the trip from
interest rate cuts, expedited savings via the Super Saver Parramatta to the CBD by up to 20 minutes.8
Scheme and now, help with the deposit via the new
First Home Deposit Scheme, starting in January 2020, As Sydney continues to grow, traffic congestion,
will enable many young people to achieve the dream overcrowding, lack of family time and the high costs
of home ownership. of living are motivating people to change their living
arrangements according to their priorities.
At the market turn, Sydney’s median house price had
fallen to $866,524 and the median apartment price was The most common trade-off is families living in
$682,374.1 Buyers re-engaged in Spring, many with new apartments close to work in the CBD, while others
funds after having their borrowing capacity reassessed accept a long commute in exchange for the traditional
following APRA’s lowering of the serviceability bar on house on a quarter acre block.
new loans from July.
More families are choosing public schools instead
Modest price growth is expected in coming years, of costly private education and buying according to
with CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics predicting 7.9% catchment zones. Others are choosing to work, live, play
23
McGrath Report 2020
and stay in burgeoning suburban mixed use precincts market quartile recording the greatest price growth
where new apartments, office towers and recreational over the September 2019 quarter.9 The low Australian
facilities are combined to allow them to stay local. dollar has also led to renewed interest from ex-pats,
somewhat offsetting less demand from foreign buyers
There is growing interest in master planned estates, due to capital controls out of China.
with an abundance of shared facilities such as parks,
playgrounds, aquatic centres, gyms and childcare The construction issues surrounding Opal Tower and
giving people more time with their families. Mascot Towers have shaken confidence in the new
apartment sector. Given the crucial role of vertical
In Sydney’s prestige market, entrepreneurs are living in accommodating Sydney’s population growth,
investing major capital into trophy homes, the state government is expected to introduce tough
with Australia’s first $100 million sale in FY19. new building regulations after a parliamentary inquiry
as they seek to restore confidence to this sector.
A shortage of prestige stock, buyer re-engagement
after the Liberals’ election win and the opportunity to With lending now easier and mortgage rates at their
borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars more under lowest levels since the 1950s,10 Sydney is once again an
relaxed lending rules led to Sydney’s most expensive exciting buyer’s market for long term capital growth.
24
Sydney
25
McGrath Report 2020
26
Central Coast Spotlight
A 20-year multi-level government vision for the The Central Coast's median house price is $630,000
area’s evolution that began in 2016 is now bearing and the median apartment price is $487,500.3
fruit. Substantial public and private investment is CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics tips soaring apartment
generating thousands of jobs, new businesses and price growth on the Central Coast of 26.9% over
lively shopping and recreational areas – all enhancing CY20 and CY21,4 as well as 9.6% house price growth,
liveability for the locals. largely due to demand from Sydney buyers.
Part of the plan is the dramatic transformation Seachanging in NSW is easier than ever before due
of Gosford into a vibrant, modern CBD and a great to the rise of telecommuting; advances in technology
place to live with enhanced rail and road links enabling more start-up businesses; and improving road,
back to Sydney. rail and air transport back to Sydney. Latest yearly
statistics show the highest number of people departing
The Australian Tax Office and NSW Finance Sydney/NSW for another area in Australia in 14 years,5
Department have opened new offices in Gosford and with 50,200 Sydneysiders relocating within NSW.6
the $348 million redevelopment of Gosford Hospital
is almost complete. There are plans for a new civic The NSW Government is encouraging decentralisation
centre and the redevelopment of the Leagues Club from Sydney through a range of new programs to
Field into a 2.4ha public recreational playground.1 attract business investment, create jobs and boost
regional population projections by 30%.7 Interest-free
Planning processes have been streamlined to loans and $10,000 relocation grants for skilled workers
encourage private investment, including a new are on offer to lure city businesses to regional locations
$350 million private hospital and the $280 million and encourage existing regional businesses to expand.
redevelopment of the Kibbleplex site into a mixed
use precinct with shops, cafes, entertainment
and apartments.2
27
McGrath Report 2020
Median house
price $729,052
Median apartment
price $546,203
CoreLogic, September 2019
02
Melbourne experienced a softer landing than Sydney
during the downturn, with a -10.9% decline in dwelling
Apartments will rebound just 0.7% overall for the city,
however strong gains will be seen in some pockets,
values from its peak compared to -14.9% for Sydney.1 such as the Inner East (16.6%), North West (9.5%)
The Federal election result, two interest rate cuts and in areas such as Keilor, the Macedon Ranges and
improvements in lending conditions helped stimulate Sunbury; and Inner Melbourne (8%)2 in areas such
prices from June 2019. as Brunswick, Essendon and Port Phillip.
At the market turn, Melbourne’s median house price Melbourne has excellent fundamentals that will
was $709,092 and the apartment median price was support property price growth over the medium
$527,748, according to CoreLogic.1 to long term. Victoria had the strongest population
growth in Australia at 2.2% in CY183 due to high
CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics predicts a 7.3% increase overseas migration, strong internal movement from
in house prices over CY20 and CY21, with best gains in within Victoria; and new residents moving from
the North East (18%) in areas such as Banyule, Kinglake Sydney and Perth.4
and Whittlesea; and the Inner East (13.2%) in areas
such as Boroondara, Manningham and Whitehorse. More affordable housing than Sydney but equally
attractive job prospects are part of the appeal, with
Victoria recording just 4.5% unemployment in January
28
Melbourne
2019 and the strongest jobs growth in the country, Melbourne now has more skyscrapers (taller than
up 15.9% since November 2013.5 150 metres) than Sydney,7 with Australia 108 in
Southbank the country’s tallest new building and
Melbourne’s buzzing café and restaurant scene, home to Melbourne’s previous record of $25 million
cultural richness and lifestyle attributes have elevated set in 2015. It is due for completion in 2020.
it to one of the world’s most desirable cities. It is the
favoured destination among foreign buyers and will In FY20, major infrastructure projects will continue
become Australia’s largest city by 2066 – overtaking to prepare Melbourne for massive future population
Sydney as early as 2031.6 growth, including the commencement of the $15.8
billion North East Link, which will cut travel times
Reflecting its sophistication as a global city is the high by up to 35 minutes to Melbourne’s rapidly growing
glamour of its new apartment developments, which northern suburbs.8
are meeting a growing appetite for luxury sky home
living among Melbourne’s wealthy. The new road should boost buyer demand in areas
such as Greensborough, Heidelberg and Ivanhoe,
Although there has been a substantial decline in foreign where great new value is available following median
investors, who bought heavily into Melbourne’s high house price falls to $755,000, $1,022,500 and
rise projects before the introduction of tough new $1,301,000 respectively during the downturn.9
taxes, opulent and unique projects with a strong brand
are resonating with the local business elite. The Victorian Government is also moving forward
with its highly anticipated Fishermans Bend
These include Capitol Grand, the six-star retail and redevelopment, Australia’s largest urban renewal
high rise residential project in South Yarra, where project, which will transform 250ha of inner city
75% of stock, priced from almost $1 million for a one land into housing and employment opportunities
bedroom apartment to $25 million for a penthouse, for 80,000 people by 2050.10
was sold prior to completion in 2019. Developer,
Larry Kestelman said 90% of sales were to local owner Regional Victoria received $2.6 billion in the FY20
occupiers, with several amalgamating apartments Budget for new infrastructure and services that are
to create larger residences. expected to generate an estimated 4,500 new jobs.11
Fellow developer, Tim Gurner sold 95% of stock in About $615 million12 will be spent on public transport,
Saint Moritz on St Kilda’s beachfront within a month such as the purchase of new trains for the busiest
of its launch in April 2019. A double-storey penthouse regional lines. A growing number of Melburnians
was sold to a local businessman for a new city record relocating to satellite cities is straining services,
of $30 million. The seven bedroom property includes with all trains from Geelong arriving at Southern
four living rooms, two pools, panoramic water views, Cross before 9am at 96-100% capacity.13
a 1,000-bottle wine cellar and a seven car garage.
29
McGrath Report 2020
Planning has also begun for the Western Rail Plan, City escapees have brought new industries
which will separate regional and metropolitan services to regional areas, such as small batch spirits,
on the Geelong and Ballarat lines to enable a faster craft beer and food production. This trend
express commute. has attracted $10 million of state government
support, with business expansion grants of up
Affordability and lifestyle are fuelling regional buyer to $200,000 offered as part of the Artisanal
demand, with Shepparton, Warrnambool, Ballarat Sector Program.14
and Bendigo ranked among Australia’s top 10 regional
performers in FY19 with growth of 2.3-2.7%1 compared
to Melbourne’s -9.2% decline. CoreLogic-Moody’s
Analytics predicts house price growth of 13% in
Shepparton, 12.7% in Geelong and 9.7% in Ballarat2
in CY20 and CY21.
Cheltenham
3
ouses under $1 million coupled with the opening
H
of Southland train station in 2017 makes Cheltenham
a go-to destination for savvy young buyers and
investors. It offers great affordability compared to its
neighbouring suburbs of Hampton and Beaumaris.
Cheltenham has half a dozen schools and the most
recent expansion of Westfield Southland has provided
it with an abundance of retailers and eateries.
30
Melbourne
31
McGrath Report 2020
Brisbane &
Surrounds
03 City Spotlight 03
Median house
price $540,224
Median apartment
price $377,447
CoreLogic, September 2019
Like Sydney and Melbourne, Brisbane and South While interest rate cuts and reduced lending
East Queensland property was impacted by lending restrictions will boost activity across South East
restrictions that took significant buyer demand out Queensland in FY20, it is economic growth fuelled by
of the marketplace in 2018 and the first half of 2019. infrastructure projects and strong interstate migration4
32
Brisbane & Surrounds
that will be the key driving forces for property prices The light rail would benefit the $5 billion Caloundra
over the next few years. South housing development, Aura, which is offering
some of the coast’s most affordable properties with
In FY19, $11.6 billion6 was poured into 405 construction house and land packages starting at $385,000.
projects, with more to come. Contracts were awarded It is within a short drive to beaches and reasonable
for the $5.4 billion Cross River Rail, a 10.2km rail line commuting distance to Brisbane.
from Dutton Park to Bowen Hills. Brisbane Airport’s
second runway is on schedule to open in 2020, While not firing as substantially as the Sunshine Coast
doubling its capacity and contributing a predicted $5 in FY19, the Gold Coast property market has endless
billion in additional annual economic benefits.7 capacity for long term growth. Its median house price
remained steady in the 12 months to June 30, 2019 at
Major infrastructure spending on the Sunshine Coast is $630,000,5 slightly above the Sunshine Coast’s median
also raising the area’s appeal and transforming the local of $600,000 following 1.7% growth over the same
economy. The coast’s largest construction project is the period. The median apartment price rose by 0.2%
$303 million Sunshine Coast Airport Expansion, which to $408,000, while the Sunshine Coast’s median rose
includes a new runway to be completed by late 2020.8 by 1.2% to $410,000.
The longer, wider runway will facilitate more tourism The Gold Coast has matured to a point where it no
and enable direct exporting to new markets in Asia, longer suffers the significant peaks and troughs it
the Pacific and other parts of Australia previously did in the past. Substantial infrastructure spending,
inaccessible. The project will contribute an estimated improved public transport and an expansion of
$4.1 billion to the local economy through to 2040. services at the airport have helped it develop beyond
a tourism economy.
The creation of Maroochydore’s new CBD is underway,
with work commencing on the first new commercial Health care is now the largest local employer following
building as well as an international broadband cable the opening of two new hospitals in 2013 and 2016
that will create the East Coast’s fastest internet. To be and the ongoing growth of the Health and Knowledge
completed in 20 years, the new CBD will create 15,000 Precinct, which currently employs almost 10,000
new permanent jobs9 and make the Sunshine Coast people and will eventually support 26,000 jobs over
a more viable location for business. the next 10-15 years.11
New housing developments are expected to benefit BIS Oxford Economics predicts house price growth
from improved public transport on the Sunshine of 9% on the Gold Coast and 7% on the Sunshine Coast
Coast, with early works underway on the $800 million over the three years to June 2022.1
Beerburrum to Nambour rail duplication project10
and a feasibility study completed for light rail linking
Maroochydore with Caloundra.
33
McGrath Report 2020
New infrastructure continues to drive inland regional BIS Oxford Economics sees the bulk of Brisbane’s 20%
markets as well. In Toowoomba, the $16.7 million three-year price growth occurring in FY21 and FY22,
upgrade to the Trade Gateway was completed in so the door is open in FY20 for early adopters of the
August 2019,12 providing key transport links to the great northern migration ahead.
region. The Second Range Crossing, which opened in
September 2019, will be a game changer for the town
as it will divert heavy vehicle traffic away from the
centre and enhance liveability for residents.
34
Brisbane & Surrounds
35
McGrath Report 2020
Canberra
City Spotlight 04
04
Median house
price $672,203
Median apartment
price $424,911
CoreLogic, September 2019
36
Canberra
A $2.9 billion infrastructure program,8 introduced Beyond the statistics, Canberra is being increasingly
in FY17, has led to improved medical facilities, recognised as a genuinely great place to live.
new schools, transport redevelopments and updated
town centres, parks and sporting facilities. Canberra was voted Australia’s most liveable city
for the third consecutive year in 2019 due to its
The ACT Government is also in the midst of addressing safety, health services, housing affordability, quality
the city’s zoning regulations to cater for strong of education and work prospects, according to the
population growth over the next 20 years, with 12 annual Life in Australia report by realestate.com.
new homes needed per day to keep up. au/Ipsos, the largest annual study into community
values and liveability as rated by residents.
A key element of the ACT Government Planning
Strategy9 is increasing density around existing town Canberra’s soul is being revitalised to enhance
centres and along major transport routes, with up community interaction and generate a new buzz.
to 70% of new housing to be within the city’s The City Renewal Authority is undertaking scores of
existing footprint. small, innovative projects to make Canberra’s public
spaces more inviting, enjoyable and interactive.
Rezoning will be required to increase diversity beyond
traditional family homes and apartments. There is This includes the complete rejuvenation of the city’s
strong demand for more in-between options such as ‘backyard’, the 19ha Haig Park in Braddon. A series
terraces, townhouses, manors and single level age-in- of events and improvements in 2019 included an over
place homes for seniors in established suburbs close 55s street art project, live music and performances,
to the city. multiple public art installations, new kids’ bicycle
paths, running tracks, an off-leash dog area with
The ACT Government is phasing out stamp duty and pet play equipment and a nature play zone for kids
replacing it with higher rates under a 20-year reform under 10.
plan that began in 2012.10 From July 1, 2019, no first
home buyer will pay stamp duty on any property or Civic has received a makeover, including new paint
vacant land as long as their personal and partner’s and lighting for the much-loved merry-go-round;
gross income combined is less than $160,000.11 100 pieces of new street furniture; scores of new
The threshold is slightly higher for buyers with street trees and colourful flower planter boxes;
children. Stamp duty for non-first home buyers has and jet cleaning of sidewalks. With every change of
also been progressively cut every year since FY13.12 season, a giant plant giveaway encourages locals to
pick up flowers for their own gardens to make way
Construction has begun on Canberra’s first six star for new seasonal plantings.
rated Green Star Community, Ginninderry, which
will provide 11,50013 eco-friendly homes for 30,000
residents over the next three decades.
37
McGrath Report 2020
Theodore 2 Weston 5
Theodore’s median house price jumped an impressive ome original 1970s gems with established gardens
S
12% to $580,000 over the 12 months to June 30, 2019.14 and plenty of potential can still be found amongst the
Offering affordable family homes of a similar style and newer homes of the area. Less than 15 minutes’ drive
quality to its more expensive neighbour, Calwell, it has to the CBD, there is a shopping centre and 10 schools
the same access to recreational amenities as well as the within a 3km radius. Affordable buying and perfect
Monaro Highway straight to the ski fields. for a growing young family.
Holder
3
I deally located, this well-established south west suburb
offers some of the city’s most affordable housing within
a 15 minute drive of Canberra’s city centre. Be quick as
locals are catching on, with prices already on the rise.
House prices surged 16.4% to a median $698,500 over
the 12 months to June 30, 2019.14
38
Canberra
4
1
5
3
39
McGrath Report 2020
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wellbeing, Journal of Environmental Psychology, published June 2016 13 Foot traffic ahead, The George Washington University School of July 1, 2019 https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/sydney-and-mel-
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on a large scale, College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University, search-August-2013.pdf September 10, 2019
published April 24, 2014 https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/cgi/view- 6 State Infrastructure Plan Part B: Program – 2018 update, Depart-
content.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1034&context=elce_cscday Sydney Pages 22-25 ment of State Development Regions, published July 2018 https://www.
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lished December 2013 file:///C:/Users/Ben/Downloads/D2014-022551- Central Coast Pages 26-27 ov%202018&num=&view=
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published June 29, 2019 published June 29, 2019
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5 Housing decisions of older Australians, Productivity Commission, housing-values-edge-higher-june-values-still-trending-lower-national 13 Indicative Land Release Program 2019-20 to 2022-23, ACT Govern-
published December 2015 https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/ 2 Home Value Index Forecast Q2, CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics, ment Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate,
housing-decisions-older-australians/housing-decisions-older-austra- published June 29, 2019 published June 4, 2019 https://www.planning.act.gov.au/topics/land-re-
lians.pdf 3 Australian Demographic Statistics, December 2018, Australian lease/indicative-land-release-program-2019-20-to-2022-23
6 Apartments moving to master planned communities, Cedar Woods, Bureau of Statistics, published June 20, 2019 https://www.abs.gov.au/ 14 Market Trends, 12 months to June 30, 2019, CoreLogic, published
published October 19, 2017 https://www.cedarwoods.com.au/me- AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0 September 10, 2019
dia-centre/news/apartments-moving-to-master-planned-communities 4 Regional Internal Migration, Australian Bureau of Statistics,
7 The rise and rise of medium density housing, CoreLogic, published published April 3, 2019 https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/ Disclaimer
July 10, 2017 https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/the-rise-and-rise-of- Latestproducts/3412.0Main%20Features72017-18?opendocument&tab-
medium-density-housing name=Summary&prodno=3412.0&issue=2017-18&num=&view= All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.
8 Are townhouses the new house?, Ironfish, July 6, 2018 http://www. 5 Australian Jobs 2019, Department of Jobs and Small Business, McGrath Limited and its subsidiaries, together with their directors,
ironfish.com.au/blog/2018/07/06/townhouses-new-house/ published May 14, 2019 https://docs.employment.gov.au/system/files/ officers, employees and agents have used their best endeavours to
doc/other/australianjobs2019.pdf ensure the information passed on in this report is accurate, however they
Loner Living Pages 18-21 6 Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Dec- have not checked this information and have no belief either way as to the
laration, Australian Bureau of Statistics, published November 22, 2018 accuracy of the information contained in this report. Any recommenda-
1 2016 Census data summary, Australian Bureau of Statistics, https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0 tions and forward looking statements are statements of opinion only, not
published June 28, 2017 https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/ 7 The Skyscraper Centre, Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, guarantees of future performance, and should not be relied upon. You
Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Snapshot%20 data collected August 22, 2019 http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/com- should make your own enquiries in relation to the information contained
of%20Australia,%202016~2 pare-data/submit?type%5B%5D=building&status%5B%5D=COM&sta- in this report.
2 Rising proportion of single person households in the EU, Eurostat, tus%5B%5D=UC&base_region=8&base_country=11&base_
published July 6, 2018 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eu- city=0&base_height_range=3&base_company=All&base_min_ © 2019 and the McGrath trade mark are property of McGrath Limited
rostat-news/-/DDN-20180706-1?inheritRedirect=true year=1885&base_max_year=9999&comp_region=0&comp_country=0&- and its subsidiaries. All other names and trade marks are the property
3 Families and households 2017, Office for National Statistics, comp_city=0&comp_height_range=3&comp_company=All&comp_ of their respective owners.
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