: 2023 11 8 [28 ]
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8 November 2023 | 11:01AM EST
(Global economic Analyst)
2024:
n 2023 GDP Jan Hatzius
+1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com
1% 2% 2022 6% 2019
3% +1
(212)902-5924 | dominic.
wilson@gs.com
n
+1
2024 2.2.5% (212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@
gs.com
n 15%
2024 +1(212)902-6915 | vickie.chang@gs.com
+1
(917)343-9216 | devesh.
kodnani@gs.com
n Giovanni Pierdomenico +
44(20)7051-6807 | giovanni.
2024H2 pierdomenico@gs.com
n 2024H2
2%
2024
2023
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi cation
and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2024:
2023 1
GDP 2.7% 1
2.4% 2pp
gdp 88%
1:2023
GDP 2
2022-2023
GDP
8 November 2023 2
Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
:Haver Analytics
2023
2021-
2022
3 G10 ( )
EM CPI
2022
6% 3%
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
3:
:Haver Analytics
4 10 (G10) EM
4:
:Haver Analytics
5 (
)
( )
( )
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
5:
: Haver Analytics
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
(The Last Mile)
( )
2024 ( 6)
6:
: Haver Analytics
( 7)
7:
: Haver Analytics
8
- -
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
(
)
8:
:Haver Analytics
( 9)
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
:Haver Analytics
(G10)
3% 2.2.5% 2024
( 10)
10: 2024
: Haver Analytics
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2023
11
1
12 50% 2022 65%
15% ( 2022
35%)
11:
2024 2.6%
( 12)
1.1 (
) 0.5 0.5 0.3
0.3 0.2
1
The latest estimate that the US economy will enter a recession as de ned by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of
the National Bureau of Economic Research in the next 12 months is 55% in the Bloomberg survey shown in the chart and
48% in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
12: 2024 GDP
: IMF 2025
2023 4%
2024 2.75% GDP 2%
UK
2024 2% ( 13)
13:
:Haver Analytics
G10
( )
of
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
GDP
2024
2023
2024 0.2pp DMs
0.3pp
UK(
) ( )
2022 ( 14)
14:
2024 2023
2022
gdp
( 15)
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
15:
: Haver Analytics
EM
3%
5% (
16)
16:
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2024 EM
2024
GDP
( )
2024H2
2024Q3
UK
2024Q4 2024Q4
25 (
17)
17: (EM) ( )
: Haver Analytics
50
3.5-3.75% 2.5% UK 3% 3.
5%
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
: 2008
0.4
0.3 0.2
AI ( 18)
18: AI
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
(Bank of Japan)
30 2023
( 19 )
2024 4
10 ( 19
) -
10
(G10)
( 2025
0.25%)
19:
: Haver Analytics
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2023 ( 2023
) 2023
GDP 2024 4.8%
( 20)
20:
2024
3% ( 21)
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
21:
:Haver Analytics IMF
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2024
22
22:
* 12 15%
(
) 2019
( )
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
EM
4 3
EM
(Equity Risk
Premium) ( 23)
23:
: 2003-2023 GRANOLAS 11 :
L orsamal LVMH SAP
:FactSet
(mbs)
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2024
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
2024
( 24)
2008
24: 2005-2007
: (2000)
2024 ( )
( 25)
:
;
;
2023
a
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
: Datastream - ICE-BAML iBoxx
2024
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
:
( 26)
26:
:Gurkaynak, Sack, and Wright (2006) Haver Analytics
2024
2024
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
GDP
2023
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
GS : ;
: Datastream - ICE-BAML iBoxx
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst
Reg
Jan Hatzius Dominic Wilson Joseph Briggs Vickie Chang Devesh Kodnani Giovanni Pierdomenico
: ;1% ; ; ;
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: :
:
:
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