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The Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) is a project management tool that considers project durations and involves three time estimates: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. PERT assumes that activity durations are independent and follow a probability distribution, allowing for the calculation of expected durations, variances, and critical paths. The procedure includes drawing project networks, computing expected durations and variances, and estimating the probability of project completion within a specified time.

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15 views2 pages

Adobe Scan 25 Apr 2025

The Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) is a project management tool that considers project durations and involves three time estimates: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. PERT assumes that activity durations are independent and follow a probability distribution, allowing for the calculation of expected durations, variances, and critical paths. The procedure includes drawing project networks, computing expected durations and variances, and estimating the probability of project completion within a specified time.

Uploaded by

kapoorkaun
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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15.

6 Programme Evaluation Review Technique : (PERT)


This technique, unlike CPM, takes i.io account the
project durations into account.
PERT calculations depend upon the following three time
time estimates
Optimistic (least) time estimate : (% or a) is the duration of
activity when everything goes on very well during the project i
labourers are available and come in time, machines are working proper
money is available whenever needed, there is no scarcity of raw
needed etc. matera
Pessimistic (greatest) time estimate : (, or b) is the duration of any
activity when almost every thing goes against our will and a lot f
difficulties is faced while doing a project.
Scheduling by PERT and CPM 15.29
Mostlikely time estimate: (m or m) is the
sormnetimes things go on very well, duration of any activity
when
doingthe project.
while
sometines things go on very bad
main assumptions made in PERT
Two
a The activity durations are
calculations are
independent.
complete an activity will have no i.e., the time
bearing on the required to
times of any other activity of the
The activity durations follow ß -
project. completion
distribution.
distribution a probability distribution
is
with
KI - a) (b- )P with mean
density function
2 +i and the
andard deviation o,= 6
PERT Procedure
() Draw the project net work

(2) Compute the expected duration of each activity t, =


6

(3) Compute the expected variance c2 =|P of each activity.


(4) Compute the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start, latest finish
and total float of each activity.
(5) Determine the critical path and identify critical activities.
(6) Compute the expected variance of the Project length (also called
the variance of the critical path) o, which is the sum of the
váriances of all the critical activities.
() Compute the expected standard deviation of the project length oc
T_-TE where
andcalculate the standard normal deviate

Tg =Specified or Scheduled time to complete the project


IE Nomal expected project duration
°* Expected standard deviation of the project lengi
completing the
(8) Using (7) One can estimate th¹
probability of
curve (Area)
the normal
project within a specified time, using
tables. is valid
assumption(i). (6)
Note: (2), (3) are valid because of
of assumption (i).

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