Q1.
The Human Resources director in a company is investigating the graduate status and
salaries of its employees.
Event G is defined as the employee is a graduate.
Event H is defined as the employee earns at least £40 000 a year.
The director summarised the findings in the table of probabilities below.
H H'
G 0.21 0.18
G' 0.07 0.54
(a) An employee is selected at random.
(i) Find P(G)
___________________________________________________________ (1)
(ii) Find P[(G ∩ H)' ]
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________ (2)
(iii) Find P(H | G' )
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________ (2)
(b) Determine whether the events G and H are independent.
Fully justify your answer.
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
(2)
(Total 7 marks)
Page 1 of 15
Q2.
Diedre is a head teacher in a school which provides primary, secondary and sixth-form
education.
There are 200 teachers in her school.
The number of teachers in each level of education along with their gender is shown in the
table below.
Primary Secondary Sixth-form
Male 9 24 23
Female 35 85 24
(a) A teacher is selected at random. Find the probability that:
(i) the teacher is female
______________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________ (1)
(ii) the teacher is not a sixth-form teacher.
______________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________(1)
(b) Given that a randomly chosen teacher is male, find the probability that this teacher is
not a primary teacher.
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________(2)
(c) Diedre wants to select three different teachers at random to be part of a school
project.
Calculate the probability that all three chosen are secondary teachers.
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________(2)
(Total 6 marks)
Page 2 of 15
Q3.
Roger is an active retired lecturer. Each day after breakfast, he decides whether the
weather for that day is going to be fine (F), dull (D) or wet (W). He then decides on only
one of four activities for the day: cycling (C), gardening (G), shopping (S) or relaxing (R).
His decisions from day to day may be assumed to be independent.
The table shows Roger’s probabilities for each combination of weather and activity.
Weather
Fine Wet
Dull (D)
(F) (W)
Cycling (C) 0.30 0.10 0
Gardening (G) 0.25 0.05 0
Activity
Shopping (S) 0 0.10 0.05
Relaxing (R) 0 0.05 0.10
(a) Find the probability that, on a particular day, Roger decided:
(i) that it was going to be fine and that he would go cycling;
______________________________________________________________
(ii) on either gardening or shopping;
______________________________________________________________
(iii) to go cycling, given that he had decided that it was going to be fine;
______________________________________________________________
(iv) that it was going to be fine, given that he did not go cycling.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
(7)
(b) Calculate the probability that, on a particular Saturday and Sunday, Roger decided
that it was going to be fine and decided on the same activity for both days.
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________ (3)
(Total 10 marks)
Page 3 of 15
Q4.
Twins Alec and Eric are members of the same local cricket club and play for the club’s
under 18 team.
The probability that Alec is selected to play in any particular game is 0.85.
The probability that Eric is selected to play in any particular game is 0.60.
The probability that both Alec and Eric are selected to play in any particular game is 0.55.
(a) By using a table, or otherwise:
(i) show that the probability that neither twin is selected for a particular game is
0.10;
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
(ii) find the probability that at least one of the twins is selected for a particular
game;
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
(iii) find the probability that exactly one of the twins is selected for a particular
game.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
(5)
Page 4 of 15
(b) The probability that the twins’ younger brother, Cedric, is selected for a particular
game is:
0.30 given that both of the twins have been selected;
0.75 given that exactly one of the twins has been selected;
0.40 given that neither of the twins has been selected.
Calculate the probability that, for a particular game:
(i) all three brothers are selected;
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
(ii) at least two of the three brothers are selected.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
(6)
(Total 11 marks)
Page 5 of 15
Q6.
A survey was conducted into the health of 120 teachers.
The survey recorded whether or not they had suffered from a range of four health issues
in the past year.
In addition, their physical exercise level was categorised as low, medium or high.
50 teachers had a low exercise level, 40 teachers had a medium exercise level and 30
teachers had a high exercise level.
The results of the survey are shown in the table below.
Medium High
Low exercise
exercise exercise
Back trouble 14 7 10
Stress 38 14 5
Depression 9 2 1
Headache/Migraine 4 5 5
(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected teacher:
(i) suffers from back trouble and has a high exercise level;
___________________________________________________________ (1)
(ii) suffers from depression.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________(2)
(iii) suffers from stress, given that they have a low exercise level.
______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________(2)
(b) For teachers in the survey with a low exercise level, explain why the
events ‘suffers from back trouble’ and ‘suffers from stress’ are not
mutually exclusive.
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
(2)
(Total 7 marks)
Page 6 of 15
Mark schemes
Q1.
Marking Instructions AO Marks Typical Solution
(a) Obtains 0.39 1.1b B1 0.39
(i)
(ii) States or calculates 1 - P(G∩H) 1.1a M1 1 - 0.21 = 0.79
or
states 0.07 + 0.18 + 0.54
PI by correct answer
Obtains 0.79 1.1b A1
(iii) 1.1a M1
States
Condone missing P(H | G/)
or
states P(H ∩ G/) = 0.07 or
seen
or
states 0.07 + 0.54 or 0.61 or
seen
PI by correct answer
1.1b A1
Obtains
or AWFW [0.11, 0.115]
(b) States their P(G) from part 3.1b M1 P(G) × P(H) = 0.39 × 0.28
(a)(i) × 0.28 = 0.1092
or
compares their P(G) from part (a)(i) P(G∩H) = 0.21
with 0.75
or
P(G∩H) ≠ P(G) × P(H)
compares their P(H|G) with 0.28
or
compares their P(H|G/) from part Hence G and H are not
(a)(iii) with 0.28 independent
or any other valid comparison with
Page 7 of 15
one correct probability to at least 2
sf
Completes a reasoned argument 2.4 R1
and concludes that G and H are
not independent
Total 7 marks
Q2.
Marking Instructions AO Marks Typical Solution
(a) Calculates the correct 1.1b B1
(i) probability
OE
(ii) Calculates the correct 1.1b B1
probability
OE
Allow value truncated to
0.76 or rounded to 0.77 or
better
Subtotal 2
(b) Finds the total male 1.1a M1 9 + 24 + 23 = 56
teachers
PI if seen or by
correct answer
Obtains the correct 1.1b A1
probability
OE
AWRT 0.84
Subtotal 2
(c) Finds P(all three 3.1b M1
secondary teachers)
PI by correct answer =0.16
Obtains the correct 1.1b A1
probability AWRT 0.16
Do not allow 0.16 coming
from incorrect working
Subtotal 2
Question Total 6
Q3.
(a) (i) P(F & C) = 0.3 or 3 / 10 or 30%
Ratios (eg 3:10) are only penalised by
Page 8 of 15
1 accuracy mark at first correct answer
CAO (0.3)
B1
(1)
(ii) P(G or S) = 0.45 or 45 / 100 or 45%
CAO (0.45)
B1
(1)
(iii) P(C | F) = =
M1
30 / 55 or 6 / 11
CAO (6 / 11)
or
(0.545 to 0.55) or (54.5% to 55%)
AWFW (0.54545)
A1
(2)
(iv) P(F | C′) =
Correct numerator
M1
Correct denominator
M1
25 / 60 or 5 / 12
CAO (5 / 12)
or
(0.416 to 0.42) or (41.6% to 42%)
AWRT (0.41667)
A1
(3)
7
(b) P = [P(F & C)]2 or [P(F & G)]2
Attempt at sum of at least 2 squared
terms; 0 < term < 1; not (a + b)2
May be implied by a correct
expression or a correct answer
M1
Page 9 of 15
0.302 + 0.252 or 0.09 + 0.0625 =
OE
Ignore additional terms or integer multipliers
May be implied by a correct answer
A1
1525 / 10000 or 305 / 2000 or 61 / 400
CAO
or
(0.1525)
(0.152 to 0.153) or (15.2% to 15.3%)
AWFW
A1
3
[10]
Q4.
(a) (i) Table Method
(2- way with either R or C totals)
A A′ Total
E 0.55 0.05 0.60
E′ 0.30 0.10 0.40
Total 0.85 0.15 1.00
0.15 or 0.4; CAO; allow fractions
B1
0.05 and 0.3; CAO; allow fractions
B1
0.1; AG so dependent on B1 B1
Bdep 1
3
Alternative solution 1
Venn Diagram Method
0.55; CAO
(B1)
0.3 and 0.05; CAO
Page 10 of 15
(B1)
0.1; AG so dependent on B1 B1
(Bdep1)
(3)
Alternative solution 2
Formula Method
P(≥1) = 0.85 + 0.60 − 0.55
OR
0.85 + 0.60 − 0.55 + p = 1
OR
0.15 + 0.40 − 0.45
Full justification for numerical expression
(M2)
Insufficient justification or numerical expression only
(M1)
P(0) = 1 − P(≥1)
OR = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1
0.9 + p = 1
OR = 0.1
AG; gained from M2 or M1
(A1)
(3)
(ii) P(≥1) = 0.9 or 9/10
CAO
B1
1
(iii) P(1) = 0.3 + 0.05 = 1 − (0.55 + 0.10) = 0.35 or 35/100 or 7/20
CAO
B1
1
(b) (i) P(3) = 0.55 × 0.30
OE; implied by correct answer
B1
= 0.165 or 165/1000 or 33/200
CAO
B1
2
(ii) 0.55 × (1 − 0.3) or 0.385
M1
(0.3 × 0.75) or 0.225
Page 11 of 15
or (0.05 × 0.75) or 0.0375
or (0.35 × 0.75) or 0.2625
At least one of these expressions or values
M1
(0.385 + 0.2625) + 0.165
OE; implied by correct answer
B1
= 0.812 to 0.813
AWFW (0.8125)
CAO
A1
4
Alternative solution 1
0.1 × (1 − 0.4) or 0.06
(M1)
(0.3 × 0.25) or 0.075
or (0.05 × 0.25) or 0.0125
or (0.35 × 0.25) or 0.0875
or (0.1 × 0.4) or 0.04
At least one of these expressions or values
(M1)
1 − (0.1875)
OE; implied by correct answer
(B1)
= 0.812 to 0.813
AWFW (0.8125)
CAO for equivalent fraction
(A1)
(4)
Alternative solution 2
(0.55 + p) where 0 < p < 0.45
(M1)
(0.3 × 0.75) or 0.225
or (0.05 × 0.75) or 0.0375
or (0.35 × 0.75) or 0.2625
At least one of these expressions or values
Page 12 of 15
(M1)
0.55 + 0.2625
OE; implied by correct answer
(B1)
= 0.812 to 0.813
AWFW (0.8125)
CAO for equivalent fraction
(A1)
(4)
[11]
Q5.
(a) (i) P(F & C) = 0.3 or 3 / 10 or 30%
Ratios (eg 3:10) are only penalised by
1 accuracy mark at first correct answer
CAO (0.3)
B1
(1)
(ii) P(G or S) = 0.45 or 45 / 100 or 45%
CAO (0.45)
B1
(1)
(iii) P(C | F) = =
M1
30 / 55 or 6 / 11
CAO (6 / 11)
or
(0.54 to 0.55) or (54% to 55%)
AWFW (0.54545)
A1
(2)
(iv) P(R′ | D) =
Correct numerator
M1
Correct denominator
M1
Page 13 of 15
25 / 30 or 5 / 6
CAO (5 / 6)
or
(0.83 to 0.834) or (83% to 83.4%)
AWFW (0.83333)
A1
(3)
(v) P(F | C′) =
Correct expression
M1
25 / 60 or 5 / 12
CAO (5 / 12)
or
(0.416 to 0.42) or (41.6% to 42%)
AWRT (0.41667)
A1
(2,3)
9
(b) P = [P(F & C)]2 + [P(F & G)]2
Attempt at sum of at least 2 squared
terms; 0 < term < 1; not (a + b)2
May be implied by a correct
expression or a correct answer
M1
0.302 + 0.252 or 0.09 + 0.0625 =
OE
Ignore additional terms or integer multipliers
May be implied by a correct answer
A1
1525 / 10000 or 305 / 2000 or 61 / 400
CAO
or
(0.1525)
(0.152 to 0.153) or (15.2% to 15.3%)
AWFW
A1
3
[12]
Page 14 of 15
Q6.
Marking Instructions AO Marks Typical Solution
(a) Finds correct probability AO1.1b B1
(i) OE
(ii) Finds total number for AO1.1a M1 9 + 2 + 1 = 12
‘depression’
Calculates correct probability AO1.1b A1
OE
(iii) Uses conditional probability to AO1.1a M1
calculate
Obtains correct probability AO3.1b A1
ACF
(b) Shows that 14+38 or 52 AO3.1b M1 14 + 38 = 52
or
52 > 50
so events are not mutuallly
exclusive
Compares 14 + 38 with 50 AO2.4 R1
or
compares
with 1
and concludes events are not
mutually exclusive
Total 7 marks
Page 15 of 15
